DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF RURAL

TO URBAN MIGRATION (THE CASE STUDY OF SAWLA TOWN, SOUTHERN

ETHIOPIA)

A RESEARCH PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE

AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS OF ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR BACHELOR ART
DEGREE IN FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

BY: ADEM SEID

ID: RBE/080/10

ADVISOR: MIHRETU.T (MSc)

JANUARY, 2020

SAWLA, ETHIOPIA
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Above all I would like to thank the almighty God for everything that have achieved
throughout my life. Next special gratitude and thanks goes to my advisor Mihretu T. (MSc)
for his valuable and constructive suggestion, provisional advices and encouragement.

Finally my special gratitude goes to my lovely Mam, Brothers and Sisters and HUCS for their
continued financial and moral encouragement by giving hope during my entire life.
 ACRONYMS

CDs Developed Countries

EEA Ethiopian Economic association

ILO International Labor Organization

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

SSA Sub-Saharan Africa

SDA Sawla Development Association

UN united Nation

NELM New Economics of labor migration

CSA Central statistical Agency

Table of Content
 CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Migration is a complex, multi-causal, and nonlinear demographic phenomenon that has
occurred throughout human history at a variety of scales and touches the lives of many
people in sub-Saharan Africa (Atsede.D and Marianne.P, 2016). The number of international
migrants worldwide has continued to grow over the past seventeen years, reaching 258
million in 2017, up from 248 million in 2015, 220 million in 2010, 191 million in 2005 and
173 million in 2000. Between 2000 and 2005, the international migrant stock grew by an
average of 2 per cent per year. During the period 2005-2010, the annual growth rate
accelerated, reaching 2.9 per cent. Since then, however, it has slowed, falling to around 2.4
per cent per year during the period 2010-2015 and to 2.0 per cent per year during the period
2015-2017. Researchers generally argue that internal migration, despite its various
shortcomings and problems, alleviates poverty. Almost everywhere, migrants are the big
winners in the migration process and the estimated gains are large. However, this does not
mean that we should abstain from addressing the perils of urbanization and internal migration
( (LUCAS, 2017) . Rural –urban migration eases inter-sectorial factor mobility and plays a
vital role for structural changes. Moreover, migration has also been a key live likelihood and
survival strategy for many poor groups across the developing world particularly in Africa.

The Ethiopian case is of particular importance because this great country is experiencing a
strong economic growth and migration trends. The reports of the Ministry of Labor and
Social Affairs (MoLSA) registered 460,000 legal migrants between September 2008 and
August 2013 of whom 94% were women domestic workers, 79% travelling to Saudi Arabia,
20% to Kuwait and the rest to Dubai and other countries. A number of 60-70% of Ethiopian
migrants were estimated as irregular, either trafficked or smuggled (.al, 2017). (Bisrat et al,
2017)

Primarily males but with important percentages of female, both married and singles, with
low and medium education (primary and secondary education) and skills, pertaining to
middle size families (henok et al,b, 2017) and proportionally linked to religions and ethnical
groups existing in the woredas.
The majority of migrants are male but also female migration is important. About one third of
irregular migrants are female working as housemaids in families of destination countries,
while migrant males work as herdsman and workers in the construction and petty trade
sectors, but also in illegal activities (Kassegni & Gashaw, 2017)

Moreover “data show that urban youth are more vulnerable to irregular migration as they are
more exposed to migration related information and influence” (.al, 2017). Other information
indicate that also better off persons and families are considering the opportunity to migrate
for improving their lives in a short period of time (Bisrat et al, 2017).

A significant difference exists between male and female migrants: males travel mostly
through irregular channels, while female use relatively more regular ways. Male are more
risk taker than female.

“Therefore, the study finding shows sex (henok et al,b, 2017)selective nature of migration
dominated by male and with 20 – 29 years of age groups categories of returnee because of
irregular passages are full of risks and challenges, so that it looks males are more keen to take
risk.” (henok et al,b, 2017).

1.2 Statement of the problem

Social and cultural consequences of migration involve religion and life styles. Some
Christians migrated in Arab countries and converted into Islam, influencing the behaviour of
their families once back. The Arab way of life (dressing, drug, language) is hybridized in
local communities (Kassegni & Gashaw, 2017). The perceptions are mixed: community’s
leaders are more worried than returnees and families about these influences.

Community leaders have a strong negative perception on migrants’ effect on local societies
and point out four major consequences: State is losing its productive force; national image
deteriorates; public legitimacy is undermined; political distrust increases; and failure to be
abided by law diffuse. (Bisrat et al, 2017)

nature of internal migration in Ethiopia. While a Population Census offers the best source of
data to study internal migration, the most recent Census was conducted in 2007. The next
Census is planned to happen towards end 2018, while the census microdata will likely not be
available before 2020. As a result, this paper uses three rounds of the Labor Force Surveys
(LFS) and the to look at trends and patterns of internal migration in Ethiopia and the
characteristics of internal migrants. At the outset, it is worth mentioning that there are some
data limitation and definitional issues that complicate the study of internal migration. These
issues and limitations are presented in Annex 1. To contextualize the quantitative analysis, a
qualitative research study with rural migrants in urban areas was conducted in May 2017The
researches of the Ethiopian universities investigate push, pull and re-in force factors such as
networks of actors promoting and sustaining irregular migrations. Push factors appear to be
the main motivations of migration and particularly: unemployment and underemployment,
low salaries, scarce land accessibility and fertility, and poverty in general. Economic
motivations are the most underlined by respondents, while local governance and political
factors are the least reporte (henok et al,b, 2017). In the case of Tigray Regional state the
situation is relatively different because of the “no war no peace” situation and of the
insufficiency of government policy to sustain local development, as reported forward.

According to the regression analysis elaborated in the research of (Kassegni & Gashaw,
2017) push factors (unemployment, land scarcity and poverty) are more significant than pull
factors in explaining drivers of migration. The same conclusion is derived from the regression
analysis of (henok et al,b, 2017) Ethiopians should be able to afford the costs of migration if
the economic situation continues to improve. If Ethiopia reaches the emigration rates of some
lower-middle-income countries (between 5 and 10 per cent), between 4.7 and 9.4 million
Ethiopians could be on the move within and beyond the region cited in (henok et al,b, 2017))

While the total number of internal migrants in Ethiopia is growing, interesting changes are
taking place in their composition. Rural-out migration is on the rise, urban-out migration is
declining with urban-rural migration decreasing the most only 16.2% of the 73.92 million
people of the country lived in urban centers in the year 2007 according the census, indicating
that there is limited and low-level rural-urban migration. According to United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Aairs (UN DESA) data, the estimated number of people
aged 19 or under living in a country other than the one where they were born rose from 28.7
million in 1990 to 37.9 million in 2019. In 2019, child migrants (aged 19 years and under)
accounted for 14 per cent of the total migrant population and 5.9 per cent of the total
population (of all ages). The estimated number of young migrants (aged 15 to 24) also rose
from 22.4 million in 1990 to 30.9 million in 2019. In 2019, young migrants accounted for
11.4 per cent of the total migrant population and 5.1 per cent of the total population (of all
ages). 
The proportion and number of child and young migrants vary by region. As of 2019, the
percentage of young migrants is higher in low and middle-income countries than in high-
income countries. Since UN DESA started publishing its international migrant stock
estimates in 1990, Africa has hosted the highest proportion of child migrants as well as young
migrants. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of migrant children in Latin America and the
Caribbean has slightly increased, while it has continued to decrease in Europe and Asia. As a
percentage of the total migrant stock, young migrants have steadily decreased in all regions
except Oceania. The proportion of both child migrants and young migrants in Oceania’s
migrant stock has stayed relatively stable during this period.

 (The World Bank, 2011)15. According to Frauws “Migration within and from the
Horn of Africa region is still relatively low, but is bound to increase in the next
decades. Numbers collected in the Labour and Social Affair Bureaus at local level
indicate an increasing trend in migration in Bale, West Harerghe and South Wollo
Zones (henok et al,b, 2017); . (Kassegni & Gashaw, 2017) In the case of Tigray
Region, the Regional State Bureau of Labor and Social Affairs (2013), estimated that
more than 42,000 people migrated from the region both legally and illegally between
2009 and 2012, in a period of four years only (.al, 2017). All the researches of
Ethiopian universities have collected a general perception of an increasing number of
irregular migrants towards Arab countries. However, these scholars or studies missed
points such as the basic determinants of rural-urban migration, the present socio-
economic condition of migrants, the future plan of migration and the impact of the life
of migrants. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to fill such gaps that are not
emphasized, analyzed and interpreted by the scholars.

More concretely, the research gaps that study is going to focus on is determinants and
consequences of rural-urban migration, case study of Sawla town.
 1.3 Objectives of the Study
The general objectives of the study will be to examine (assess) the determinants and
consequences of rural to urban migration in the case study of the Sawla town, southern
Ethiopia.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

Specific objectives study will be:
a) To assess the pattern of rural-urban migration in the study area
b) To examine the socio-economic determinants of rural-urban migration in the
study area.
c) To assess whether the push or pull factors which mainly contributes rural-urban
migration in study area

1.4 Research Question

The follow are the main research of the study:-
a) What are the socio-economic determinants of rural-urban migrations in Sawla
Town?
b) Are the push or pull factors contribute to rural to urban migration in Sawla town?
c) What are the problems of the migrants in Sawla town? .
d) What seems like the pattern of rural-urban migration in the study area?

1.5 Scope and delimitation of the study

The study will gear to those migrants from other surrounding Woreda, Zone and regions to
Sawla town. This research will explore push factors of rural areas and pull factors of Sawla
town. The topic of migration is an immense area of systematic investigation and needs an
ample devotion of time and attention of acquire knowledge. So many scholars and
academicians attempts to deal with the topic and forwarded their own contributions in varies
school of thoughts.

1.6 Significance of the study

This study will provides information for any concerned body that seeks to address the factors
that are responsible for rural to migrants in study area. The study when successfully
completed can be used as input by the regional and zonal planners. The output of this study
may also be importance to researchers or students working on related topics. Moreover, the
study will also be an addition to provide working on the topic thus, addition to knowledge.
 1.7 Organization of the study
This study will consist of five chapters:- chapter one deals with introduction part, where an
account back ground of the study, the statement of the problem, research question, research
objectives, scope or delimitation of the study, significance of the study and organization of
the study is made. chapter two cover the literature review part in which case of both
theoretical and empirical review is cover which is related to rural-urban migration chapter
three covers the methodology section, study area, types and sources of data, sampling and
sampling size determination, model specification and the method of data analysis.
 CHAPTER TWO

2 SURVEY OF RELATED LITERATURE LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 DEFINITION
Several schools have to attempt to define migration. Most of their definition stress on a
change of environment (space) and degree of permanently (time). The main problems over is
that concepts are not standardized and objective defined in relation to these points the black
well encyclopedia states: (Source)

Migration is the term used to define the movement of people from one place to another who
then take up residence in that attracted administrative areas rural-urban migration is one type
of internal migration that has attracted the attention of many people due to its selective.
Economic growth and development has long associated with rural-urban migration, in many
economic publications from the historical point of view, the current developed world in 19 th
and early 20th c have under gone different patterns of migration pre dominantly rural-urban
migration attributing to the process of industrialization and economic development. (Source)

2.2 Theoretical literature

2.2.1 The new economics of labor migration model

Oded stark and David E Bloom in 1985 realized the concept of the new economics of labor
migration (NELM) which provided a new insight by shifting the way how migration decision
is made by and linking rural-urban with development as described below.

- this model shift the focus of migration model from individual to mutual affair where
migration decisions are influenced by other actors i.e. by households or families.
- this model is the assumption that migration occurs from region with a low production
potential migration can occur in the regional with high production potential but with
capital market imperfections.
As argued by Taylor (1999), the NELM model not only focus on the determinants of
migration decision but also its impacts on migrant sending regions. The other concept the
NELM model is regarding return migration. in the neoclassical model, return migration is
considered as failed experience, miscalculations of the costs and returns of migration and in
ability to maximize expected earnings in the receiving region. however in the NELM model,
return migration can be taken as a successfully where migrants return back to their origin
after the calculated objectives of migration (for example accumulation of saving, insurance
and purchasing power) are successfully accomplished (Dust M. , 2017). According to
(CHARLES,T;HORN, GREEN , 2016) (Rozelle,et al and debrawn et al, 2016). The NELM
model focuses on the following summarized points regarding the multiplier effects of
remittances:-

- Remittances have multiplier effects in migrant sending villages or communities

through investment
- through intra-regional trade the impact of remittances on local economies is
transferred to other parts of the country and
- multiplier effects of remittances on income in migrant sending areas appear to defend
on local production activities

2.2.2 Lewis rural-urban migration theory

Initially the duel-sector models as given by W.A Lewis was enumerated in his article entitled
‘economic development with un limited supplies of labor’ written in 1954, the model itself
named in Lewis honor.

Assumptions

1) the model assumes that developing economy has a surplus of un productive labor in
agricultural sector
2) the assumes that the wages in the manufacturing sector are more or less fixed
3) an advanced manufacturing sector means an economy has moved from a traditional
to an industrialized one.
W.A.Lewis devide the economy of an under developed country in to two sectors:
- the capital sector and the subsistence sector.
The capitalist sector:-Lewis defined this sector by him as <<that part of the economy which
uses reproducible capital and plays capitalist there of <<the use of capital is controlled by the
capitalists, who hire the service of labor. It includes manufacturing and plantations, mines
etc. It may be private or public. (Source)
The subsistence sector:-This sector was defined by his as <<that part of the economy which
is not using reproducible capital.>. It can also be adjusted as the indigenous traditional sector
or the <<self employed>>. The per head output is comparatively lower this sector and this is
because it is not fructified with capital. The <<Dual sector model>> is a theory of
development in which surplus labor from traditional agricultural sector is transferred to the
modern industrial sector whose growth over time absorbs the surplus labor, promotes
industrialization and stimulates sustained development. (Source)

2.2.3 Human capital theory

Human capital theory is a modern extension of Adam smith’s explanation of wage
differentials by the so-called net (Dis) advantages between different employments. the cost of
learning the job are a very important component of a net advantage of have led economists
such as Garys, Becker and Jacob Mincer to Claim that, Other things being equal, Personal
incomes are vary according to the amount of investment in human capital, that is the
education and training under taken by individuals or groups of workers. A further expectation
is that wider spread investment in human capital creates in the labor-force the skill- base
indispensible for economic growth. The survival of human-capital reservoir was said for
example, to explain rapid reconstruction achieved by the defeated powers of WWII. Human-
capital arises out of any activity able to raise individuals workers productivity. In practice
full-time education is, too readily, taken as the principle example, for workers, investment in
human-capital involves both direct costs and costs in fore gone earnings. Human-capital
theory has attracted much criticism from sociologists of education and training. Criticisms
this theory point to the difficulty of measuring key including future income and the central
idea of human-capital itself. (Source)

2.2.4 Social Capital Theory

Bourdieu (1986:249) who first analyzed social capital systematically, defined it as <<the
aggregate of actual or potential resources which are linked to the position of a durable net
work of more or less institutionalize relationships of mutual acquaintance or recognition>>.
Coleman (1988:s 118-19) later described social capital as a resource for action <<embodied
in relation among persons>> which emerges from closure in the social structure and is
convertible in to other forms of capital. Burt (1992:12) also emphasized the contingency of
social capital on the social structure, defining it as>> at once the resource contacts hold and
the structure of concocts in a net work.

Resources migrant social capital:-Migrant social capital resources are defined as information
as information or direct assistance provided by prior migrants to potential migrants. This
information may be for example about job opera unties at destination that can increases
expected earnings of potential migrants. Similarly, prior migrants may provide help with
transformation to or living arrangements at the intended destination, which there by reduces
expected cost of migration. (Source)

2.2.7 Network theory of Migration

A social network is made up of individuals and organizations often called <<nodes>> which
are tied together by different sorts of relationships, such as friend ship, economic exchange,
influence and common interests.

Migration resources have typically defined migrant net works as inter personalities linking
kin, friends and community members in their place of origin and destination. But other kinds
of socialites also for migrants have ties to institutions and organizations that help to migrate,
get jobs to society in the destination country in other ways. Such institutions might include
universities, Diaspora organization, organizations, government and NGOs, private
employment agencies corporation, religious and cultural organization organization and soon.
the most distinctive feature of migrant net works of course, if that they exist a cross two or
more countries, but they also tend to be somewhat limited and specific in terms of the ties
that comprises them. Additionally, the composition of migrants networks in terms of native
or non-native and coetnic inter personal and organizational ties often changes over time.
(Source)

The importance or migrant networks a migrant ability to particular destination, find a job and
housing, open up a business, participate in the development of their home country, and access
health care can all be directly impacted by or even dependent up on the migrants social
networks. Migrant networks also determine whether and to what extent immigrants integrate
in to their host countries while also maintaining a connection to their home countries- a
process known as trans nationalism. (Source)

2.3 Empirical literature

In this sub –Section some of the common Determinants and consequences of rural-urban
migration observed are outlined in light of empirical findings in different literature.

2.3.1 Determinants of Migration

The person’s choice to migrate from his origin to that of destination or cities determined on
different border reasons knowing the reasons of migration from rural-urban areas become the
area of interest by different social sciences disciplines (McGee,and Bills borrow et al,
2017)the reason for migration and selection of the destination areas appraisal become more
multifaceted hence the pattern, idea, kind, the nature and course varies from time to time,
place to place and from person to person (UN, 1984, Jansen1970). Most of research works in
the causes of migration revealed that the <<push>> or<<pull>> factors become more
underlying one, and directly link with economic and non-economic aspects of the migrants,
poverty, job searching and family influence were the main push factors for out migration,
while better opportunities, prior migrants and availability of job were the main put factors
behind migration in Bangladesh. (Hossain, 2016)

2.3.2 Consequences of Migration

Migration has its own positive and negative consequences in the departure and destination.
natural resource deflation, environmental pollution, earning disparities, redundancy, urban
expansion, social unrest, population crowding were or are some of the negative effects of
migration whereas migration has paved for development , enhanced process of
industrialization serve as means of livelihood and even more the remittance become resource
of family income and mechanisms of to escape drought and famine are the positive effects
of migration (Dang,et al and moapatraet,al, 2019) . According to different research findings
migration by its nature strongly geared with age and sex, so the population census of rural
and urban areas become the source of young generation; which further paved the way best of
number of population (montgomee het al, 2017). The station becomes more favorable in
African migrants. Hence they are not acquainted with birth control mechanisms and then the
compositions of the population formation exposed for uncontrolled reproductions. (Ibid,
2017)

2.4. Conceptual Framework of the study

 CHAPTER THREE

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 STUDY AREA Description of the Study Area

3.1.1 Topography

Sawla town extends from in southern Ethiopia located in Goffa zone of the southern nations
nationalities and people region this town has a latitude and longitude of 6 0,181N-360,53*E
with an elevation of 1.3 as miters (4,577ft above sea level and surround it is surrounded by
demba gofa woreda (Source)

3.2 Sampling and Sample Size determination

In this study, Stratified and purposive sampling techniques will be used to select households
and study locations. the research for stratified sampling technique is include and represent
specific groups of the research interest in different meaningful strata and with certain
purposes of the research. purpose sampling technique will be used to select the research
region where as stratified technique will be used to select village and households taking to
account certain strata/categories.

n=N/1+N(e2)

3.3 Types of data source and method of data collection

Both primary and secondary data will used for this study. Secondary data sources includes ,
books, journeys, magazines, reports from migration bureaus agricultural bureaus, publication
of government and NGOs, statistical and census reports internet sources etc will be used.
With respect to primary data collection, intensive training will be given for assistant data
collects regarding the concept of each question in the designed questionnaire and on data
gathering techniques.

3.4 Model specification

In the present study, three different theories are used in order to achieve the stated objectives
of the study. The human capital theory, the new economics labor migration theory and the
social capital theory are used to examine the migration phenomenon in Sawla town.
therefore, the amalgamations of these theories are used to develop the theoretical frame work
for migration model in the present study.

The human capital theory predicts that individuals moves or migrates from sending area to
receiving area so as to maximize their life time money. That means, they make a cost benefit
analysis and decide to migrate if their expected discounted net-benefit from migration is
positive. Thus, a rational individual would migrate if the present value of the expected
income gain exceeds the cost of relocation. As discussed in chapter two, an individual will
migrate if V(0) is positive.

V(0)=

Despite the fact the fact that the human capital theory has been very popular, it is now well
accepted that it has serious limitations. It abstracts from other important factors of migration
other than wage difference. Furthermore, like any neo-classic model it assumes that the
decision to migrate is made at individual level with no role given to the family.

However, the new economics of labor migration (NELM) is developed to overcome the
limitations of the human capital theory. It shifts the decision unit from the individual to the
family. It is the family who decides whether an individual should migrate or not in such a
way that the family objective function is maximized. Therefore, the new economics labor
migration (NELM) theory changes the unit of analysis from the individual to the household
and has broth anew motive for migration other than maximizing income. That means,
households want to minimize risk by diversifying their source of income. To this end, they
send some member of the household to another place where income is not correlated with
income at the sending area. Still new economics of labor migration theory is also not free
from some limitations. This theory ignores the role of social capital (network) in rural urban
migration phenomenon.

For the social capital (network) theory, migration is caused by social networks between the
place of origin and the destination. migration network s are considered as a social capital
where members of the network have the right to get information and other supports that
makes migration more beneficial by increasing the gains and lowering the costs. Friends and
relatives at destination serve as sources of information about the opportunities, risks and
challenges associated with migration. They also help new migrants to settle in easily by
offering housing and other supports (Taylor, 1986).
The theoretical frame work for the present study uses the basic Todaro migration equation
which can be written as follow:

, w,) (2)

Where, F’ may assume negative or positive values. Therefore according to equation # 2, the
revised Todaro migration model, rural urban migration depends on income diffential between
the receiving and sending areas (W), urban job opportunities, and other factors such as social
networks, family size and the like. That means, equation #2 is the amalgamation of the
human capital theory, the new economics labor migration theory and the social capital theory
of migrations. therefore, the model indicated in equation # 2 is going to be used to test the
theory that most explains the rural urban migration phenomenon in sebeta town. to separate
the purely push from the purely pull factors, the present study generates the dependant
variable Yi for each individual migrant, where Yi= (number of pull reason for migration
chosen) (Total number of reasons for migration chosen). Hence the variable Yi varies from 0
to 1 with the value 0 to 1, with the value 0 indicating that the individual‘s reasons for
migration are “:only push” in nature, and with the value I referring to “only pull” factors. For
sake of classification the present study divides the range of possible values that Yi can take,
into five parts:

Yi = 0; only push factors

0 <Yi< 0.5; mainly push factors

Yi = 0.5; both push and pull factors are equally important

0.5 <Yi< I; Mainly pull factors

Yi = I; only pull factor are responsible for migration

Finally, in order to understand the factors which determine the extent of push versus pull
factors in migration, the present study estimated that logit model where the dependent
variable is 1 for ratio greater than 0.5 and zero for ratio less than 0.5.

Thus, using the theoretical frame work which is developed above, an explicit migration
model which helps in the present study to assess the determinants of rural-urban migration in
sebeta town

Town can be specified as follow:

Yi=β0 + β1 family size + β2income at migration + β3mariatal status + β4EDUC+ β5AGE+
β6LAND + β7Gender +Ui(3)

as can be seen from equation #3, the model incorporates the various theories of rural urban
migration and it tries to test the relative strength of these theories in explaining the rural –
urban migration in the study area.

The human capital theory predicts that education affects migration positively because in
increases income at destination and makes information about migration easily available.
Education might also increase earning at home. Thus, it is not clear a priori whether it will
increase or decrease migration. Therefore, the sign of the coefficient education, β5, is
indeterminate. Age is expected to affect migration negatively because younger individuals
have longer period of life to benefit from migration compared to older people. Thus, given
that migration cost is more or less fixed it is better from the household’s point of view to send
younger members. Younger individuals also tend to have less social commitment and hence
can easily relocate to a new place and therefore, the sign of β6 is negative. For similar reason,
unmarried individuals are expected to have higher likelihood of migration and thus the sign
of β4 is expected to be negative. Though females are generally less mobile than their male
counterparts and the coefficient of gender is expected to have negative sign.

According the new economics of labor migration theory, family size affects migration
positively and the therefore, coefficient of family size, β1, is expected to have negative sign.
More children are associated with lower household income which makes migration more
desirable. Human capital theory predicts that household education increases the rural urban
migration so that the coefficient β6 is assumed to have positive sign.

3.4.1. Variable and Hypothesis of the

Table3.1

3.5 method of data analysis

After the required data were collected coded and fed to the computer, the data were analyzed
by descriptive and inferential statics, the descriptive analysis includes percentage, ratios and
proportions whereas the inferential statics includes correlations and regressions. The types of
analysis methods depends on the models specified in each category of analysis. The analysis
of the effect of rural-urban migration in case of Sawla town.
The first stage analysis the effect of out-migration (OM) and remittances on production
factors and then second stage estimate the effect on rural-urban migration on study area based
on the estimations made in the first stage.

CHAPTER FOUR

4.Time and cost budget Budget Plan and Time Schedule

4.1Financial budget
NO Items quantity Unit cost Total cost
1 Secretary service paper 170 2 340
page
2 Transportation cost 1200 1200

3 Paper One package 200 200

4 Pen 6 10 60

5 Flash 1(16GB) 400 400

6 Printing cost 160 2 320

7 Telephone and Internet 200 200

cost

8 Miscellaneous expense 500 500

9 Total 3220

4.2TIME BUDGET
NO. Activities Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

1 Title X
selection
2 Literature X
search
3 Proposal X
Writing
4 Data X x
collection
5 Data X
analysis
6 Research X X
writing
7 Presentation x
References

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Atsede.D: and Marianne.P. (2016). determinantes of rural out-migratione. jornal of population

science, 35(34), 1011-1044.

Dang,et al and moapatraet,al. (2019). consequences of migration.

Dust, M. (2017). new economics of labor migeration model.

henok et al,b. (2017). about migeration.

Hossain. (2016). determinante of migeration.

Ibid. (2017). consequence of migeratione.

Kassegni & Gashaw. (2017). irregular migration in ethiopia. 47.

lee. (2014). migeration.

lucas. (2015). migeratione and urbanizatione.

LUCAS. (2017). migeratione and urbanizatione. UN DESA, 1-53.

lucas. (n.d.). migeratione and urbanizatione. 2015.

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