CAPITAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Name: Huma Mirza

Reg no: Mba223007

Date: 7th October, 2022

Assignment no: 2

Course: Advance Project Management

Submitted to: Dr. Khurrum Shahzad

PROJECT SELECTION:
It is the process of choosing a project rationally in the light of objectives and inherent
constraints on the basis of appraisal.
Identification of a new project is a complex problem. The project selection process starts with
the generation of project ideas. In order to select the most promising project, the entrepreneur
needs to generate a few ideas about the possible project one can undertake.

The project ideas as a process of identification of a project begin with an analytical survey of
the economy (also known as pre-investment surveys). The surveys and studies will give us
ideas.

PROJECT SELECTION CRITERIA:

Project manager should select only those projects that ensure returns in the near future. This
is because it helps in allocating the resources that aim at ensuring better returns. Therefore,
proper decision-making process is essential for the selection of the project.

While selecting a project, the following project selection criteria should be kept in mind:

 Realism: The project selection model should consider all the risk factors such as
the cost and time that influence the decisions of a project manager. The model
should also explain the objectives of the project manager and the firm.

 Capability: The selection model should help the project manager take
appropriate decisions by considering the risk and constraints involved in the
project. The selection model should be capable of evaluating the future project
proposals on the
basis of the expected returns of the project.
.
 Cost: The various costs associated with the right project selection model should
be kept at the minimum level. The costs incurred in designing a project selection
model consists of data generation, processing and storage expenses. The objective
here is
to identify the best project selection model.

 Flexibility: The project selection model provides the desired results within the
stated conditions of the firm. The model should be flexible enough to adjust with
the
environmental changes of the firm.

 Easy usage: The project selection model is convenient enough to implement

inside the firm.
PROJECT SELECTION PROCESS
The process of project selection consists of the following stages:

1. Pre-Screening
2. Individual Project Evaluation
3. Screening
4. Portfolio Selection
5. Portfolio Balancing and Adjustment
6. Model Selection and Development

1. Pre-Screening:
In this stage, all infeasible projects are eliminated from funding eligibility. Projects that fail to
deliver overall country development goal or goal of the development programme’s and
restricted by regulations are eliminated first.

Pre-screening targets to minimise the workload or information overload for later stages.
Duplicate projects competing for same funds are normally eliminated if it coincides with
existing projects‘ benefit.

2. Individual Project Evaluation:

During this stage, all input from a common form of all projects under contention after pre-
screening is taken for further analysis. Based on chosen method the inputs would be analysed
against cost and return at each phase or along with risk factors.

Quantitative techniques like Net Present Value (NPV), Payback period, Internal Rate of
Return (IRR), Expected Commercial Value (ECV), etc are more often used in this stage and
qualitative inputs are considered under a common scale (e.g. satisfactory or dissatisfactory).

3. Screening:
If there is any pre-set economic criteria in the guidelines form of the programme’s those are
considered in this stage. The results found in previous stage are considered for each project
and any non-mandatory projects failing to meet pre-set economic criteria are taken out.

4. Portfolio Selection:
This stage tries to combine the results of earlier stage and makes a portfolio of project that
satisfies the programme’s development goals best. Based on the objectives of the
programme’s a ranking of the projects is made by the selection committee and resources are
allocated to the maximum available.

5. Portfolio Balancing and Adjustment:

Decision makers apply judgement to adjust the mix of projects in the portfolio to get highest
benefit from the overall set of projects. Interactions among the projects such as
interdependence and mutual exclusivity are taken into account.
 6. Model Selection and Development:
According to Archer & Ghasemzadeh (1996) cited in Dye & Pennypacker (1999), this would
normally be a onetime process for the organisations with minor and infrequent adjustments.

During the life span of the programme, management tries to have a set procedure, models
based on the organisation‘s culture, experience and availability of the information needed for
using specific techniques. Several recommended tools, which can best fit certain selection
stages.

PROJECT SELECTION MODELS:

Project selection models help the project manager in selecting a project. There are two types
of project selection models are:
1. Numeric Models
2. Non-numeric Models

1. Numeric Models:
These models use numbers as input for selecting a project. Numeric models are of two types:

1. Profit or profitability
2. Scoring

Profit Or Profitability
These models consider monetary and non-monetary factors. The biggest advantage of the
profitability model is that it is easy to understand and use. Following are the types of
profitability models:

1. Payback period
2. Average Rate of Return (ARR)
3. Net present value Method
4. Internal Rate of Return Method
5. Profitability index

1.Payback period:
This is the easiest way of analyzing project ideas. The payback period represents the time the
project takes to return the money spent on the project.
The payback period is calculated from the following formula:

Cost of the project / Annual cash inflow from the project

2.Average Rate of Return (ARR):
The project manager selects the project that provides a reasonable return against the
investment made. ARR is the simplest way of calculating the return on investment.
Following is the formula of ARR:
(Annual cash Inflows – Depreciation) / Initial Investment
In the above formula, depreciation is calculated by using the straight-line method,

(Cost – SalvageValue) / Useful Life

3.Net present value Method:

(or discounted cash flow technique) The net present values of all cash inflows and an outflow
occurring during the entire life of the project is determined separately for each year by
discounting these flows by a pre-determined rate.
NPV ═ Total present value of cash Inflows – Present value of initial investment

4.Internal Rate of Return Method: 

The IRR of an investment is the discount rate at which the net present value of costs
(negative cash flows) of the investment equals the net present value of the benefits (positive
cash flows) of the investment.
Under this method, the cash flows of a project are discounted at a suitable rate by hit and trial
method, which equates the net present value so calculated to the amount of the investment.

C = A1/(1+r)b + A2/(1+r)b + An/(1+r)n

5.Profitability index (PI):
Also known as profit investment ratio (PIR) and value investment ratio (VIR), is the ratio of
present value of cash inflows to initial investment of a proposed project. It is a useful tool for
ranking projects because it allows you to quantify the amount of value created per unit of
investment.
Profitability index = PV of future cash flow / Initial Investment

Scoring
These models involve multiple decision criteria for selecting a project. In scoring models, the
decisions are taken after discussions between the project team and the top-level management.
Following are the types of scoring models:

 Unweighted 0-1 factor: The management lists the factors that are considered in
rating a project. Management consists of a team of raters who help selection of the
project.

The people involved in the team must be familiar with the organizational goals. In
this model, the list of factors is provided to the team of raters and the project is
selected on the basis of the score given to it.

The benefit of using this model is that it gives equal importance to the opinions of
all raters on the basis of which the final result is obtained.
 Unweighted factor scoring: In this model, the raters can select any of the values
on a scale of 1 to 5 in which 5 is very good, 4 is good, 3 is fair, 2 is poor and 1 is
very poor.