Data (1973-present) Now from https://www.eia.

gov/international/data/world
Data (1970-present) From www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t41d.xls (no longer availabe at this url)
Data (before 1970) from the Oil Economists' Handbook 5th ed, Jenkins
Table 4.1d World Crude Oil Production (Including Lease Condensate)
Table 6.1 is in tonnes and was converted to barrels by 1 tonne = 6.84 barrels
Updated June 2020

Thousand Thousand Barrels

Year Tonnes per Day

Table 6.1 OEH

1860 70 1.311780821918
1865 371 6.952438356164
1870 796 14.91682191781
1875 1367 25.61720547945
1880 4127 77.33884931507
1885 5072 95.04789041096
1890 10563 197.9477260274
1895 14463 271.0326575342
1900 20545 385.0076712329
1905 29467 552.2035068493
1910 44917 841.7322739726
1915 59390 1112.952328767
1920 95881 1796.783671233
1925 148610 2784.910684932
1930 197175 3695.005479452
1935 230713 4323.4984109589
1940 293232 5495.087342466
1945 365329 6846.165369863
1950 525134 9840.867287671
1955 768924 14409.42509589
1960 1055869 19786.69578082
1965 1513528 28363.10005479
1970 2282484 42773.12482192
1973 2767939 51870.41852055
1974 2777799 52055.19221918

Table 6.2 OEH BP Statistical Review 1961

1938 5595
1951 12290
1952 12990
1953 13800
1954 14430
 1955 16190
1956 17540
1957 18450
1958 18980
1959 20480
1960 22060
1961 23540

Table 6.3 OEH BP Statistical Review 1971

1961 23485
1962 25510
1963 27405
1964 29515
1965 31740
1966 34395
1967 36990
1968 40340
1969 43640
1970 47740
1971 50370

Table 6.4 OEH BP Statistical Review 1981

1971 50785
1972 53540
1973 58510
1974 58610
1975 55680
1976 60070
1977 62560
1978 63075
1979 65760
1980 62705
1981 59100

Table 6.5 OEH BP Statistical Review 1988

1977 62550
1978 63055
1979 65775
1980 62755
1981 59375
1982 57060
1983 56690
1984 58100
1985 57595
1986 60325
1987 60200
 Estimated Value Using
Year Thousand Barrels per Day Thousand Barrels per Year Normal Model with Q, µ, σ.
1860 1.31178082191781 478.8 3370.0540828666
1865 6.95243835616438 2537.64 6039.28691360229
1870 14.9168219178082 5444.64 10613.6715528629
1875 25.6172054794521 9350.28 18292.6580021019
1880 77.3388493150685 28228.68 30918.5540526228
1885 95.0478904109589 34692.48 51249.864947234
1890 197.947726027397 72250.92 83310.0633458672
1895 271.032657534247 98926.92 132810.800262384
1900 385.007671232877 140527.8 207634.975975911
1905 552.203506849315 201554.28 318345.576662621
1910 841.732273972603 307232.28 478661.30130843
1915 1112.95232876712 406227.6 705811.945018314
1920 1796.78367123288 655826.04 1020659.49554321
1925 2784.91068493151 1016492.4 1447451.25152582
1930 3695.00547945205 1348677 2013066.86947546
1935 4323.4984109589 1578076.92 2745640.33449886
1938 5595 2042175 3276799.61535474
1940 5495.08734246575 2005706.88 3672487.11234877
1945 6846.16536986301 2498850.36 4817348.92895894
1950 9840.86728767123 3591916.56 6197080.21054269
1951 12290 4485850 6501995.47270223
1952 12990 4741350 6816594.43586775
1953 13800 5037000 7140843.19028485
1954 14430 5266950 7474683.09215362
1955 14409.4250958904 5259440.16 7818029.77458097
1955 16190 5909350 7818029.77458097
1956 17540 6402100 8170772.2145
1957 18450 6734250 8532771.86263617
1958 18980 6927700 8903861.84357627
1959 20480 7475200 9283846.23292599
1960 19786.6957808219 7222143.96 9672499.41842471
1960 22060 8051900 9672499.41842471
1961 23485 8572025 10069565.5517191
1962 25510 9311150 10474758.0972812
1963 27405 10002825 10887759.4846882
1964 29515 10772975 11308220.8701665
1965 31740 11585100 11735762.01293
1966 34395 12554175 12169971.2714281
1967 36990 13501350 12610405.7241496
1968 40340 14724100 13056591.4191143
1969 43640 15928600 13508023.7556237
1970 47740 17425100 13964168.0012382
1971 50785 18536525 14424459.9463035
1972 53540 19542100 14888306.697667
1973 55678.9 20322798.5 15355087.6125088
1974 55716.49 20336518.85 15824155.3724652
1975 52828.41 19282369.65 16294837.1974529
1976 57344.4 20930706 16766436.1978051
1977 59706.92 21793025.8 17238232.8625269
1978 60157.95 21957651.75 17709486.6806529
1979 62674.15 22876064.75 18179437.8918682
1980 59557.5630655737 21738510.5189344 18647309.3617282
1981 56049 20457885 19112308.5759927
1982 53453 19510345 19573629.7477865
1983 53249.8509616438 19436195.601 20030456.0305098
1984 54498.939 19892112.735 20481961.8286564
1985 53966 19697590 20927315.1979691
1986 56325 20558625 21365680.3256601
1987 56649 20676885 21796220.0807752
1988 58696 21424040 22218098.6241691
1989 59803 21828095 22630484.06701
1990 60498 22081770 23032551.1662338
1991 60129 21947085 23423484.0449373
1992 60100.1998770543 21936572.9551248 23802478.9253353
1993 60175.7380356164 21964144.383 24168746.8616108
1994 61174.0961643835 22328545.1 24521516.4597709
1995 62433.1276712328 22788091.6 24860036.5714754
1996 63817.7620218579 23293483.1379781 25183578.948747
1997 65804.764109589 24018738.9 25491440.8464863
1998 67033.6676712328 24467288.7 25782947.5598184
1999 65968.4249315068 24078475.1 26057454.8834826
2000 68526.6543680327 25012228.8443319 26314351.4807407
2001 68131.9110526575 24868147.53422 26553061.1496299
2002 67290.1730849315 24560913.176 26773044.9748143
2003 69460.244479452 25352989.235 26973803.3537953
2004 72595.181187036 26497241.1332681 27154877.886825
2005 73869.2135561643 26962262.948 27315853.1205188
2006 73621.3855205479 26871805.715 27456358.1358874
2007 73330.8244520547 26765750.925 27576067.9722932
2008 74301.006625683 27119867.4183743 27674704.8796818
2009 73128.1621479452 26691779.184 27752039.3923325
2010 74893.843339726 27336252.819 27807891.2183207
2011 74920.7325863013 27346067.394 27842129.9398654
2012 76399.256 27885728.44 27854675.5207541
2013 76474.7642136986 27913288.938 27845498.6180818
2014 78390.0306328767 28612361.181 27814620.6966051
2015 80762.3149315068 29478244.95 27762113.945087
2016 80847.5225765027 29509345.7404235 27688100.9950897
2017 81095.8871205479 29599998.799 27592754.4437476
2018 82928.4695534246 30268891.387 27476296.1831198
2019 82314.4213945205 30044763.809 27338996.5397706
2020 27181173.2292465
2021 27003190.1311094
2022 26805455.8911372
2023 26588422.3582046
2024 26352582.8642136
2025 26098470.3562342
2026 25826655.3907523
2027 25537744.0005835
2028 25232375.4456067
2029 24911219.8589906
2030 24574975.8010261
2031 24224367.7330383
2032 23860143.4241339
2033 23483071.3037314
2034 23093937.7729417
2035 22693544.4878929
2036 22282705.6280464
2037 21862245.1624201
Q 2,500,000,000.00 Q2 3,000,000,000.00
µ 2012.0775537333 µ2 2019.84528041796
σ 35.8055997012166 σ2 41.0213812459606

35000000
Estimated Value
Normal Model Square Using Normal Model Normal Model 2
Error
8359350.17169278
with Q2, µ2, σ2.
14720.120927305
Square Error
202815221.754495
30000000 Model [
12261531.1075405 23493.8463050004 439162582.697738
26718887.1944925 36944.0692070921 992214040.372604
Column
25000000
79966124.3324765 57237.8345933671 2293217884.93271

Thousand Barrels
7235422.41897315 87371.4456769411 3497866731.91756
Model 2
274146996.290891 131402.524374512 9352832682.92015 20000000
122304651.544438 194708.878653408 14995951637.5599
1148117341.63557 284259.941982908 34348329037.317
4503373067.46194 408877.705479678 72011671770.9522 15000000
13640206976.1363 579454.12500623 142808292855.732
29387909346.7661 809082.014702647 251853156221.117
10000000
89750779780.0519 1113048.0059316 499595086241.31
133103450283.599 1508631.26885325 727276758359.438
185725531708.454 2014652.62612019 996323837008.312 5000000
441413898661.613 2650727.62336689 1695335825810.11
1363204326876.24 3436195.73046217 3452605513793.34
1524297940839.85 3986653.96093767 3780998429529.26 0
2778156342948.62 4388726.77453441 5678783817746.78 1850
5375435614264.64 5522644.07723302 9143328444377.87
6786877646108.92 6847048.83967919 10595886158209.4
4064842567097.72 7135106.22462674 7018558543723.53
4306639468600.05 7430865.06144151 7233491265720.71
4426156169307.95 7734285.88817534 7275351162549.85
4874085406190.2 8045313.68562271 7719304769587
6546380815841.61 8363877.37558328 9637530425498.49
3643058481894.47 8363877.37558328 6024704637487.76
3128201402344.33 8689889.3474478 5233980098295.63
3234680890380.3 9023245.01596625 5239498183118.34
3905215632006.77 9363822.41303966 5934692411314.19
3271201195877.36 9711481.81634388 5000956362110.31
6004241872631.75 10066065.4175465 8087889256693.23
2626342474998.5 10066065.4175465 4056862329240.14
2242627704043.27 10427397.032815 3442405380152.02
1353983804058.32 10795281.8582371 2202647372634.37
783109042190.37 11169506.2726791 1361145192020.04
286488141530.305 11549837.6904997 603515639890.425
22699042140.119 11936024.4664129 123147981127.143
147612505048.563 12327795.8546498 51247517449.495
793781702670.641 12724862.0244182 602933576223.12
2780584867327.54 13126914.1334837 2551002692199.54
5859189354838.91 13533624.461514 5735907829946.21
11978050300053.3 13944646.6046285 12113555837353.2
16909079005831.8 14359615.7323803 17446571029927
21657792100839.2 14778148.9081776 22695230005276.2
24678151461699.1 15199845.4739079 26244647707546.3
20361424153389.9 15624287.4992881 22205124302631.8
8925350155022.13 16051040.2961989 10441489392736.8
17341142985472 16479652.9979998 19811872826615
20746138703254.6 16909659.2035466 23847269315356.8
18046906456421.2 17340577.6853503 21317372918460.8
22058303844524.9 17771913.1610341 26052363443143.2
9555524594312.79 18203157.1269544 12498723606184.3
1810575912844.35 18633788.752562 3327327119917.47
4004959302.40228 19063275.8337863 199870839379.038
353145458081.159 19491075.8034379 3011836619.62202
347921953287.31 19916636.7963336 601429584.294379
1512224062520.09 20339398.766567 411918492842.31
651338298676.339 20758794.6540681 40067890409.7627
1252911023054 21174251.5973262 247373532135.865
630529098617.336 21585192.1888886 25970027983.5792
643828214857.221 21991035.7699972 26549694527.264
903984826064.884 22391199.7604869 95746776674.9785
2179754139891.79 22785101.0198455 702270849517.669
3481605089667.08 23172157.2351247 1526668512982.82
4860272088697.09 23551788.3312017 2520613306261.45
4809123384775.32 23923417.8987138 2543619244077.24
4292955964822.15 24286474.6348361 2245151719084.64
3572462173886.13 24640393.7919356 1814168309744.22
2168851023184.56 24984618.6290249 932923650941.34
1730958235418.69 25318601.8608451 724734097828.083
3916360983432.88 25641807.0993435 2444006940171.52
1695523360248.13 25953710.2822683 886387297978.755
2838933891393.82 26253801.0835814 1920035758857.83
4893527095325.39 26541584.300402 3923058103040.08
2627038407686.3 26816581.2112227 2142101472863.49
432486099628.868 27078330.900197 337665317229.488
125026010101.928 27326391.5423848 132589633248.678
341701532765.302 27560341.6449446 474081726824.712
656613717134.099 27779781.2394014 1028257478525.02
307844608470.18 27984333.0202721 747300776864.465
1124151709373.19 28173643.4255161 2195921630284.17
222442779713.76 28347383.6544825 1022385566463.49
246078049410.501 28505250.619252 1343705749705.77
964283793.6893 28646967.8255245 579485402073.656
4595527474.60337 28772286.1794657 737876260845.674
636389880442.652 28880984.7172215 72158604212.1338
2945105626023.74 28972871.2541065 255402572501.029
3316932422405.75 29047782.9507994 213040208765.601
4029029901692.41 29105586.7942088 244443230481.632
7798587972734.42 29146179.9910236 1260480878655.22
7321176515232.81 29169490.2723162 766103764018.957
29175476.1079366
29164126.8298066
29135462.6636015
29089534.6686881
29026424.586568
28946244.5984572
28849136.9930062
28735273.7455402
28604856.0105603
28458113.5296011
28295303.956886
28116712.1055491
27922649.1175116
27713451.560397
27489480.4551555
27251120.2383267
26998777.6631147
26732880.6436705
 Sum Error to 2.5 T 355973118715139
Sum Error 3 T 387028998098079

35000000

30000000 Model [2.5 T, 2012 Peak]

Column C
25000000
Thousand Barrels

Model 2 [3 T, 2020 Peak]

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
0 2050