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Developing landslide hazard scenario using the historical events for the
Kashmir Himalaya

Article  in  Natural Hazards · October 2022

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05542-1

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Natural Hazards
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05542-1

ORIGINAL PAPER

Developing landslide hazard scenario using the historical

events for the Kashmir Himalaya

Bilquis Shah1   · M. Sultan Bhat1 · Akhtar Alam1 · Hilal Ahmad Sheikh1 · Noureen Ali1

Received: 13 December 2021 / Accepted: 25 July 2022

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022

Abstract
Landslides are globally ranked one of the deadliest natural hazards. However, there is a
consensus among researchers that the overall occurrences and consequences of landslides
are usually underestimated. Absence of comprehensive local or national databases in the
historical archives about the landslide events leads to underestimations and misinterpreta-
tions of impending landslide hazard and susceptibilities in a region. Jammu and Kashmir is
locus of landslide hazard; the region is characterised by mountainous terrain and complex
geology, extensive unstable and tectonically active slopes, providing favourable environ-
ment for the landslide occurrence, particularly along the National Highway (NH-44) that is
critical to region’s connectivity with the rest of India. However, limited information avail-
able on the historical landslides hampers the development of a reliable landslide catalogue
for the region. In view of that, the present study focuses on retrieving information on land-
slide events and their impacts to develop a comprehensive database for the time period
of 1990–2020 for Jammu and Kashmir, with a special focus on the Udhampur–Banihal
section of the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). This analysis compiled a list
of 960 landslide events from a range of secondary sources reported for the area during the
selected time period. A hotspot analysis was also performed to understand the spatial dis-
tribution and concentration of the landslide events across the region. The annual and sea-
sonal analysis of the events suggests an increasing trend. Moreover, the results reveal that a
total of 1000 fatalities and 267 injuries occurred during this period. Out of 20 districts, 16
exhibit relatively higher exposure levels to the landslide hazard and the induced socioeco-
nomic impacts. Most affects were found to have been experienced along the NH-44 with
1234 estimated occurrences reported in 260 days in the past three decades. The catalogue
of landslide events and their impacts developed in this study is valuable for the develop-
ment of landslide early warning system and other landslide hazard mitigation measures for
the region.

Keywords  Kashmir Himalaya · NH-44 · Landslides · Early warning · Hotspot analysis

* Bilquis Shah
bilquishah121@gmail.com
Extended author information available on the last page of the article

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 Natural Hazards

1 Introduction

The term landslide encompasses five modes of slope movements: falls, topples, slides,
spreads, and flows (Varnes 1978; Cruden and Varnes 1996). Landslide susceptibility may
depend on various causative processes and factors like bedrock geology, geomorphology,
land use and land cover, type of soil, tectonic activity, and precipitation, as discussed in
detail by Varnes (1978) and Hutchinson (1988). Landslides have become the most recur-
ring phenomenon causing a wide array of immense and irreparable adverse impacts to
human lives and infrastructure all over the world and may also be a trigger and conse-
quence of other hazards, and enhance the intensity of damage and loss (Alexander 2005;
Righini et al. 2012; Qiu 2014). Fatalities caused by landslide hazard globally per year is
in thousands (CRED 2020), and according to World Health Organization (WHO), land-
slides affected about 4.8 million people and caused more than 18,000 deaths from 1998
to 2017  (CRED 2018). In addition to adverse impacts, landslides play a critical role in
the landscape and slope ecosystem evolution (Cendrero and Dramis 1996; Geertsema et al.
2009). Compared to other geological events, landslides are prevalent across the globe, and
their frequency and magnitude show an increasing trend in recent years (Dai et al. 2002;
Keefer and Larsen 2007). Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the International Disas-
ter Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), reports
1, 30,000 deaths since the 1900s due to landslides and flash floods and the economic losses
over US$ 50 billion. In the period from 2000 to 2014, landslides caused about 26,000
deaths, and the estimated economic loss was US$ 40 billion (UN-SPIDER).
India is highly exposed to landslides (Bhandari 2006; Dikshit et al. 2020). Himalayan
states of the country are most vulnerable to fatal landslides followed by the mountainous
regions in the south (Parkash 2011). According to an estimate made by the National Insti-
tute of Disaster Management (NIDM) in the year 2011, India suffers a monetary loss of
INR 1500–2000 million every year from the landslides and as per the record of the Geo-
logical Survey of India (GSI), 420,000 k­ m2 (12.6%) of the total land area is prone to differ-
ent types of landslides, which spreads over more than 65,000 villages in elevated regions
of the country. Out of the total landslide-prone area of India, the NW Himalaya constitute
33%, and among the 100 districts of India susceptible to multiple hazards, 13 have been
identified from the Jammu and Kashmir which attracts the attention of researchers to study
this part of the Himalaya. Jammu and Kashmir State Disaster Management Policy (2011)
reports that the exposure of the state to landslides is mainly because of the mountains
topography along with the prevalent climate and huge anthropogenic interferences. About
11% of the total area of the Jammu and Kashmir comes under Seismic zone V and the rest
comes under Seismic Zone IV, which makes the region more susceptible to earthquake-
induced landslides.
For examining the landslide risk within a particular area, the information on various
attributes such as location, frequency, date of occurrence, triggering factors, spatial extent,
type, and intensity of the landslide events is imperative (McCalpin 1984; Guzzetti et  al.
2012). This information can help in generating the landslide hazard scenario of any region
(Antonini et al. 1993; Remondo et al. 2008). The landslide inventories are prepared in sev-
eral ways using different techniques, which incorporate field survey, data retrieval from
historical archives, visual interpretation of aerial photographs, and other remote sensing
techniques (Mondini et al. 2014; Lazzari and Anzidei 2018; Fiorucci et al. 2019).
Globally, several studies have been carried out to understand landslide hazard
susceptibility and impacts in different regions with the help of historical databases

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Natural Hazards

(Guzzetti et  al. 2012; Martha et  al. 2013). From a catalogue of 5741 events for the
period 2007–2013, the global trend of landslide occurrences was seen highest in Asia,
North America and South-Asia (Kirschbaum et al. 2015). Based on the number of peo-
ple killed per year per 100 ­km2 countries like Colombia, Tajikistan and India were
found to be most exposed to landslide hazard (Nadim et  al. 2006). Moreover, several
landslide databases have been developed incorporating induced fatalities and injuries,
such as a study of 2620 fatal landslide events revealed the global pattern of loss of life
with 32,322 fatalities (Petley 2012). Another global catalogue of 4862 landslide events
from 2004 to 2016 was also compiled with a total of 55,997 fatalities (Froude and Pet-
ley 2018). In addition, many researchers have attempted to develop inventories on a
national scale for their respective countries showing the trend of landslides and their
impacts (Petley et al. 2007; Sultana 2020).
In India, various studies have depicted susceptibility of areas towards landslides by gen-
erating databases through different approaches at a regional scale such as semi-automatic
method, which employs post-event satellite images to construct a landslide dataset for risk
assessment (Martha et al. 2021). Various inventories, viz. 4728 landslide events in Kerala
(Hao et al. 2020), 5858 rainfall-triggered landslides from 1992 to 2015 for the Koshi River
basin, Central Himalaya (Zhang et al. 2019), and 151 landslides for Mandakini valley of
Uttarakhand Himalaya (Ghosh et al. 2020), were generated using satellite images and field
surveys. However, fewer researchers have contributed in generating a database of fatal
landslides like Lukose et  al. (2010) who prepared an inventory of 63 landslide incidents
from 1961 to 2009 causing 257 deaths in the Western Ghats. Similarly, Parkash (2011) col-
lated information on 248 events with 3971 reported deaths in about 300 years.
In an environment of data scarcity prevalent in the country, specifically in Jammu
and Kashmir which is largely impacted by landslide hazard there is a lack of compre-
hensive documentation of historical landslide events. The available data have time gaps
and are at different spatial scales, which impede the reconstruction of past scenarios of
this landslide-prone area (e.g., Westen et  al. 2013; Bhat et  al. 2019c) and the analysis
of the trends and impacts of landslides. Notwithstanding such constraints, the present
study generated a database of historical landslide events for the entire Kashmir Hima-
laya with particular focus on a highly vulnerable section of the Jammu and Srinagar
National Highway (NH-44) from Udhampur to Banihal for the time period from 1990
to 2020. The study assesses the spatial and temporal distribution of landslide episodes
and examines the trend of occurrences, fatalities, and injuries caused by the landslides.
Moreover, the present study provides a detailed account of the socioeconomic impacts
of the landslides along the national highway (NH-44) in the Himalaya.

2 Study area

Himalaya is the youngest mountain range in the world formed due to the subduction of
the Indian plate under the Eurasian plate during the Eocene epoch (Bhat 1987), extend-
ing over 2500  km, from NE to NW of India. The width of this mountain range var-
ies from 230 to 330 km, comprising of four parallel mountain ranges, i.e., Shiwalik or
the outer Himalaya, Lesser Himalaya or Himachal, Himadari or Greater Himalaya, and
Trans Himalaya or Tibetan Himalaya from the south to the north (Wadia 1931; Steck
2003; DiPietro and Pouge 2004).

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 Natural Hazards

Kashmir Himalaya is situated between the Pir Panjal range in the W–SW and the Zan-
skar range in the E–NE constituting a large part of the Western Himalaya with an elevation
ranging from 242 to 6277 m above mean sea level (Fig. 1).
The climate of the Himalayan region is influenced by the western disturbances and the
southwest monsoons (Shafiq et al. 2019; Lone et al. 2021; Ahsan et al. 2021a, b). The Kop-
pen–Geiger climatic classification of categorises the Kashmir Himalaya into temperate,
cold, and arid climate zones (Peel et  al. 2007). However, the present climatic conditions
indicate that the hot plains of Jammu are subtropical, the central valley floor of Kashmir
is a temperate zone, and Ladakh is a cold and arid desert region (Hasan 1999). The annual
temperature of the Jammu region varies from 6 to 37 °C (Maharan and Ray 2014) and that
of the Kashmir region varies between − 10 and 35 °C. The average annual rainfall in the
Kashmir valley is ~ 1005 mm (Dad et al. 2021) and that in the Jammu plains is ~ 1251 mm
(Ahmad et al. 2016). The Kashmir valley is drained by various tributaries of the Jhelum
River, which is a part of the Indus River System having glacial origin (Mir and Jeelani
2015), and the two main rivers of Jammu region are Tawi and Chenab.
Jammu and Kashmir is prone to multiple natural hazards, viz., earthquakes, floods,
landslides, snow avalanches and droughts due to its distinct location, climate, geology, and
topography (Ahmad et al. 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019; Alam el al. 2015; Bhat et al. 2018; Bhat
et al. 2019a, b, c; Juan et al. 2020; Ali et al. 2022).
The major roads and National Highways of connectivity in Jammu and Kashmir that
pass through fragile Himalayan terrain (Singh 2010) are NH-1 (erstwhile NH-1D) con-
necting Uri, Baramulla, Srinagar, and Kargil, NH-44 (old numbering NH-1A) connecting
Srinagar and Jammu, NH-144 connecting Katra and Reasi, NH-144A connecting Rajouri
and Poonch, NH-244 connecting Anantnag and Kishtwar, NH-501 (Pahalgam-Aru Road),

Fig. 1  Location of the study area a India, b Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh and c Kashmir Himalaya

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Natural Hazards

NH-701(old numbering NH-1A) connecting Baramulla and Kupwara, NH-701A connect-

ing Baramulla and Gulmarg, Bandipora-Gurez Road, and Mughal Road (Fig. 1).

3 Material and methods

The landslide inventory of Kashmir Himalaya has been compiled for the time period of
1990 to 2020 with special reference to a section of the Jammu–Srinagar national highway
(NH-44) from Udhampur to Banihal. The data for generating the landslide database have
been retrieved from multiple sources mainly: national and regional newspapers, research
articles (such as Parkash 2011), media reports, government organizations (Border Road
Organization, Geological Survey of India and National Institute of Disaster Management),
government and non-government reports (RMSI 2018), and global and regional disaster
database (EM-DAT 2021). Similar approaches have been adopted for compiling a list of
historical landslides by many authors previously (e.g., Devoli et al. 2007; Kirschbaum et al.
2010; Pennington et al. 2015; Taylor et al. 2015). The landslide events reported in the dif-
ferent sources have been documented systematically, and any repetition of the events has
been removed. Information on 12 variables (Table 1) associated with each landslide event
was used for the preparation of the historical Landslide Database of Kashmir Himalaya
(LDKH) (e.g., Pereira et  al. 2014; Lin and Wang 2018), and the variables like victims
information and type of slide were excluded because of the associated ethical issues and
unavailability of the data, respectively. Along with the landslide inventory, information on
major landslides and avalanches that caused causalities has also been tabulated. Inventory
and district-wise maps have been prepared using geographic information system (GIS) to
map the districts most susceptible to casualties (fatalities and injuries) caused by landslides
and avalanche-associated landslides. The data has been  also analysed to understand the
annual, decadal, and seasonal trends and the frequency of the landslide events. Moreover,
a hotspot analysis tool (Getis-ord-Gi* algorithm) has been used to map the spatial distribu-
tion and concentration of landslide events, fatalities, and injuries by the fishnet polygon
and aggregation polygon method (Haque et al. 2019).
The Udhampur-to-Banihal road section of the NH-44 was studied separately, where
numerous places get hit by multiple landslides on the same day which are not reported as
individual events. Due to inadequate reporting, the estimation of the total number of land-
slides has been calculated by multiplying the days on which landslide was reported by the
number of places hit on a particular date. The socioeconomic impact concerning monetary
losses caused by landslides was not available; therefore, to calculate the intensity of dam-
age over the period (1990–2020), a general scale of four classes was devised following the
damage and loss information (Table 2).

4 Results

Within the administrative boundaries of the Jammu and Kashmir comprising 20 dis-
tricts, the Landslide Database of Kashmir Himalaya (LDKH) compiles a list of 960 land-
slide events reported in 630 days (Table 3). From the landslide database prepared for the
period 1990–2020, it has been found that there is an asymmetrical distribution of land-
slide events throughout the study area; events are mostly reported and distributed along
the major transport routes. The spatial distribution of the landslide events shows that the

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Table 1  Details of the variables and criteria used in the landslide database development
Category No. of Variables Description of the variables

Id 1 Each reported landslide event has a unique Id

Date 3 Date (day-month-year) has been given separately for each event
Season 4 Season include Pre-monsoon (March to May), Monsoon (June to September), Post-Monsoon (October to
November) and Winter (December to February)
Number of reported days 1 Total number of days per year which reported the landslide occurrences
Number of landslide events 1 Total number of events on a particular date
District 1 District in which landslide occurred on a particular date
Affected area 1 Area within a district where landslide occurred on a particular date
Number of landslides with fatality 1 Total number of reported landslides that caused fatality on a particular date
Number of landslide/avalanche events with 1 Total number of reported avalanches associated landslide events that caused fatality on a particular date
fatality
Fatalities 2 Total number of reported deaths per fatal landslide (L) and avalanche-associated landslide (L/A) event
Injuries 2 Total number of reported injuries per fatal L and L/A event
Associated damage 1 The socioeconomic impact associated with a landslide that occurred on a particular date
Natural Hazards
Natural Hazards

Table 2  Scale for measuring the damage intensity

Range Class Description

0–0.25 Low Damage to property

0.25–0.50 Medium Damage to property and highway closure
0.50–0.75 High Stranded vehicles and passengers, damage to property and highway closure
0.75–1 Very high Fatality and injury, stranded vehicles and passengers, damage to property
and highway closure

major link routes situated at higher elevations in Jammu and Kashmir prone to landslides
are NH-44 (Jammu-Srinagar National Highway),  M-G Road (Mughal Road), NH-1 (Sri-
nagar-Sonmarg Road), NH-244 (Sinthan-Kishtwar-Batote Road),  B-G Road  (Bandipora-
Gurez Road), NH-1(Baramulla-Uri Road) and NH-701 (Kupwara Road) (Fig.  2a and b).
The most affected places within the Jammu and Kashmir are Ramban (Banihal-Ramban
stretch), Ganderbal (Baltal, Sonmarg, Gumri), Baramulla (Uri), Kupwara (Machhal, Tang-
hdar), Kulgam-Poonch (Mughal Road), Bandipora (Dawar, Gurez) Anantnag (Pahalgam,
Aru), Kishtwar (Sintahn-Kishtwar Road), Batote, Reasi, and Doda (Batote–Doda Road)
(Table  3). Notably the districts that show more landslide activity like Ganderbal, Bandi-
pora, and Kulgam have higher population density, which are relatively more exposed to the
landslide hazard (Fig. 2a).
LDKH recognises 127 fatal landslides and 54 avalanches associated fatal landslide epi-
sodes (Fig. 2b) that struck the Kashmir Himalaya in the past 30 years. Some of the deadly
events are that of 18 January 1995, a catastrophic landslide/avalanche that occurred near
the Jawahar Tunnel caused 200 casualties; 18 February 2005, a massive avalanche near
Waltangu Nad Kulgam caused 175 casualties; 28 January 2006, 6 men were buried under
a heavy landslide in Uri (Baramulla); 1 May 2008, 20 people were killed by a large land-
slide in Poonch; 6 September 2014, entire Saddle village came under a massive landslide
in Udhampur buried 40 people alive; and 4 July 2018, a massive landslide that buried 10
pilgrims (Amarnath Yatris). The total deaths caused by landslides (L) and avalanche-asso-
ciated landslides (L/A) were counted as 1000, and the total number of reported injuries
were 267 (Table 3).
Figure 3 represents the hotspot analysis of total landslide events, total fatal landslides,
and avalanche/landslide events (L/A) for the study period in the Kashmir Himalaya in
which three landslide hotspots, i.e., NH-44, NH-1 and Bandipora-Gurez road, were identi-
fied. The concentration of the events has been found low in the valley floor and outer plains
of Jammu, and dense along the transportation routes with steep slopes in the higher eleva-
tion areas.
In the district-wise analysis, the major catastrophic landslides and avalanche-associ-
ated landslide events, where the death toll crossed 150–200 deaths per event, were not
included in the fatal events (L, L/A) analysis; this was done to minimise the impact of
bias introduced by a particular event on the overall analysis. The district-wise spatial
distribution of the total number of landslides (Fig.  4a) and the fatal events (L, L/A)
(Fig.  4b) from 1990 to 2020 in Jammu and Kashmir shows that the districts with the
most frequently occurring landslides are Ramban (303 events with 46 deaths and 59
injuries) followed by Ganderbal (179 events with 31 deaths and 27 injuries), Bandipora
(131 events with 79 deaths and 17 injuries), Kupwara (87 events with 63 deaths and 12
injuries) (see Fig.  4 (c) and (d)). The districts having a medium number of landslide
occurrences are Kulgam (62 events with 35 deaths and 5 injuries), Baramulla (54 events

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Table 3  Spatiotemporal attributes of the landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya, 1990 to 2020
Year Total no. of Total no. of Total no. Total no. Area affected
landslide days landslide of deaths of injuries

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(reported) events

1991 1 1  −   −  Nashri (Ramban)

1992 5 13  −   −  Bandipora (Dehi nallah, Z-Khushi), Ganderbal (Gainwan,Sumbal, Sutrun), Kupwara (Rishigund), Ramban
(Peerah)
1993 2 9  −   −  Bandipora (Badwan, Z-khushi), Ganderbal (Hayan, Mamar, Pharoo), Kupwara (Gulgulosa, Rawatpur)
1994 2 2  −   −  Kupwara (Trahagam), Ramban (Bali nallah, Narsoo slide)
1995 22 44 218  −  Baltal, Bandipora (Chandigi nallah, Z-khushi), Ganderbal (Gangangir, Ganiwan, Gund, Haknar, Hawas,
Siphon), Jawahar tunnel, Kishtwar ( Pani nallah), Kupwara (Chandigam, Karalpora, Lalpur, Phoroo,
Tuarkapur), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch)
1996 15 29 1  −  Bandipora (Badwan, Chandigi nallah, Matrigam, Sarebal, Tragbal), Baltal, Ganderbal (Gangangir, Shad-
gund, Ganiwan, Haripora, Hawas, Ramwari, Kankanaz, Wangat), Kupwara (Gutlipur, Vehama), Ramban
(Banihal-Ramban stretch)
1997 15 22  −   −  Bandipora (Chandigi nallah, Kovdpora, Ninao, Tragbal), Ganderbal (Gangangir, Hawas), Kupwara (Bat-
gund, Kralapur), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch
1998 22 38  −   −  Baltal, Bandipora (Chandigi nallah, Charpathar, Dand Behan, Wanjan), Ganderbal (Haripora, Gumri,
Baramulla (Shekhpur, Waripur), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch)
1999 5 6  −   −  Baltal, Ramban
2000 3 7 1  −  Baltal, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Srinagar-Sonmarg Road
2001 2 5  −   −  Baltal, Ramban
2002 15 17 4 3 Baltal, Baramulla (Boniyar), Ganderbal (Gagangir, Gumri), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Uri
2003 29 46 5  −  Batote-Kishtwar Road, Baramulla (Mohurra-Bazz Road, Red-Bridge-Dedrain Road, Uri-Santra-Mike
Road), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch)
2004 3 13  −   −  Baltal, Bandipora (Chandigi nallah), Srinagar-Sonmarg Road
2005 32 61 175  −  Ganderbal (Gangangir), Kishtwar-Sinthan Road, Kulgam (Waltengu Nad), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban
stretch), Srinagar-Sonmarg Road,
2006 19 25 7  −  Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch, Panthal), Bandipora (Dawar), Ganderbal (Maha Gunas, Posh Pathri,
Koragbal), Pahalgam (Sheshnag-Panjtarni track), Srinagar-Sonmarg Road, Uri, Wampur
Natural Hazards
 Table 3  (continued)
Year Total no. of Total no. of Total no. Total no. Area affected
landslide days landslide of deaths of injuries
(reported) events
Natural Hazards

2007 18 23 22 26 Bandipora (Charpathar, Koragbal, Nayalgoan), Doda, Ganderbal, Khabbak, Kishtwar, Ramban (Panthal,
Banihal-Ramban stretch),
2008 10 11 81 16 Qazigund, Poonch, Kishtwar, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Srinagar, Uri (Chakoti)
2009 13 18 15 5 Amarnath tack, Baltal (Railpathri), Bandipora (Gurez), Kishtwar (Atholi), Kupwara (keran), Ramban
(Banihal-Ramban stretch), Reasi (Vaishno Devi), Srinagar, Uri (Chokoti),
2010 36 62 91 53 Baltal, Bandipora (Hafkalan, Rangdur), Baramulla (Gulmarg), Doda, Ganderbal (Kangan), Kanmaoh,
Kishtwar, Kupwara (Chadigam Lassi Banna), Pulwama (Pampore), Pahalgam, Ramban (Banihal-Ram-
ban stretch), Reasi(Hathi Matha,Veshno Devi), Uri (Gharkote, lahama), Wanjan
2011 25 35 21 27 Amarnath route, Anantnag (Phimram Shangus), Baltal, Bandipora (Banzur, Bunakut, Gurez, Kuljan Gali,
Panar, Tangtori), Baramulla (khudpora, Salamabad, Sarna), Doda, Kishtwar, Kupwara (Riddi, Nalchain,
Hajinar), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch),  Uri
2012 20 26 67 16 Bandipora (Aitmal, Gurez, Guzarbal, Khori), Doda, Ganderbal, Kupwara (Drangyari, GundManchar),
Kishtwar, Kulgam, Mughal Road, Ramban (AnokhiFall, Banihal-Ramban stretch, Khoni nallah),
Rajouri, Udhampur, Vewan
2013 8 12 4 _ Mughal road, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch)
2014 16 23 76 3 Anantnag, Banihal, Baramulla (Boniyar), Batote- Kishtwar Road, Baramulla (LadiAngan), Doda, Kulgam,
Kupwara (Machhil), Mughal Road, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Rajouri, Udhampur, Uri (Bandi
and Jal sheeri areas)
2015 44 58 17 6 Awantipora, Batote-Kishtwar Road, Baramulla, Baltal, Budgam, Doda, Kupwara (Keran sector), Mughal
Road, Kulgam (Peer ki gali), Pahalgam, Pulwama, Poonch, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Udham-
pur (Khari belt), Uri
2016 19 24 24 10 Baramullah (Kandi belt), Batote, Ganderbal (Waniarm Kangan), Kupwara (Daadchakh-Halmatpora,
Fatehchak, Handwara, Lamchak, Wangat), Mughal Road, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Srinagar
(Dara –Harwan)
2017 41 56 43 15 Anantnag, Baltal, Bandipora, Batote-Doda-Kishtwar Road, Kupwara (Machhil sector), Mughal Road,
Phalgam, Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Reasi (Veshno Devi), Udhampur (Bali nallah, Moum
passi)

13

Table 3  (continued)
Year Total no. of Total no. of Total no. Total no. Area affected
landslide days landslide of deaths of injuries

13
(reported) events

2018 55 74 68 52 Anantnag, Baltal (Railpathri and Brarimarg), Bandipora (Tragbal), Baramulla (Happatkol-appharwat),
Doda, Ganderbal, Kishtwar, Kupwara (Machhal, Tanghdar, Sadhna pass), Mughal Road, Pahalgam,
Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch), Rajouri, Udhampur
2019 58 75 45 11 Bandipora (Dawar, Sonarwari, Tragbal), Baltal, Doda (Bhaleesa), Jawahar tunel, Kukernag, Kulgam (Peer
ki gali), Kistwar, Kupwara (Machhil, Tanghdar), Mughal Road, Pahalgam, Poonch, Ramban (Anokhifall,
Banihal-Ramban stretch), Rajouri, Reasi
2020 75 123 15 24 Bandipora (Dawar, Z-khushi), Doda, Kulgam, Kupwara (Karna, Tanghdar), Mughal Road, Pahalgam (sal-
lar), Ramban (Banihal-Ramban stretch, Panthal, Ramsu), Rajouri, Reasi, Srinagar-Sonmarg Road, Uri
Natural Hazards
Natural Hazards

Fig. 2  a Spatial distribution of 960 landslide events superimposed on the population density map and b 180
fatal events in the Kashmir Himalaya (1990–2020)

Fig. 3  a Location of historical landslide hotspots, b fatal landslide hotspot and c fatal landslide/avalanche
hotspot

with 89 deaths and 19 injuries), Anantnag (42 events with 19 deaths and 35 injuries)
followed by Doda (15 events with 34 deaths and 17 injuries), and Reasi (13 landslide
events with 44 deaths and 33 injuries). The districts with a minimum number of land-
slide occurrences and large numbers of fatalities are Poonch (5 landslide events with
26 deaths and 2 injuries), Rajouri (4 events with 18 deaths), Budgam (4 events with
10 deaths and 20 injuries), Pulwama and Srinagar (4 to 7 events with 10 deaths). The
resources consulted for this work did not show any record of landslides occurrences in
Kathua and Jammu districts.

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Fig. 4  a District-wise spatial distribution of total number of landslides, b total number of fatal (L, L/A)
events, c total number of deaths (L, L/A), and d total number reported injuries (L, L/A)

4.1 Landslides and their impacts from 1990 to 2020

The decadal frequency of the landslide events and related casualties (fatalities and injuries)
from 1990 to 2020 (Fig. 5) show a total of 171 events (18% of total events) for the decade
1990–2000 reported in 92  days causing 20 deaths and no reported injuries; for the dec-
ade 2001–2010, a total of 281 landslide events (29% of the total events) were reported in
177 days causing 206 deaths and 103 injuries; and for the decade 2010–2020 the number
of landslide events was 508 (53% of the total) in 361 days causing 380 deaths and 164 inju-
ries (Fig. 5).
The annual distribution of landslides (along with the number of days reported) depicts
an increasing trend (Fig.  6a). In the first part (1990–2000) of the time frame, the year
1995 shows the highest number (44 events) of landslide events, and in the second part
(2001–2010), the years 2010 (62 events), 2005 (61 events) and 2003 (46 events) have
the highest number of events, whereas the years 2001 (5 events), 2008 (11 events), 2004
(13 events) have the lowest number of reported landslide events. In the last part of the
time period (i.e., 2011–2020), the years 2020 (123 events), 2019 (75 events) and 2015 (58

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Total no. of deaths (L, L/A) Total no. of injuries (L, L/A) Total no. of landslides

600

500 508
Total number

400 380
281
300
171 206
200
164
100 103
20 0
0
1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020
Decades

Fig. 5  Decadal variation in the frequency of landslide events and their impacts from 1990 to 2020

(a) No. of landslides No. of landslide days

200

80
Number of landslides

70

Number of days
150

60
50
100

40
30
20
50

10
0
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

Year
(b) Total no. of fatalities Total no. of injuries Total fatal events
Number of fatalities and injuries

250 18-Jan-1995, Jawahar Tunnel 30

Number ofatal events

18-Feb-2005, Waltangu Nad Kulgam 25

200
20
150
24-Feb-2012, Gurez valley
15
100
10
50 5
0 0
1995
1996
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Year

Fig. 6  a Yearly distribution of landslide events (1990–2020) and b temporal variation in the frequency of
fatal landslides and impacts (1990–2020)

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 Natural Hazards

events) have the highest number of landslide incidents, and the years 2013 (12 events) and
2014 (23 events) reported the lowest number of landslides in the region.
The temporal variation in the frequency of fatal incidents (L, L/A) and the related
fatalities and injuries reveals that the years 1995 (218 deaths), 2005 (175 deaths), 2008
(81 deaths), 2010 (91 deaths), 2012 (67 deaths), 2014 (76 deaths) and 2018 (68 deaths)
reported the highest number of fatalities and the years 2010 (53 injuries), 2018 (52 inju-
ries), 2011 (27 injuries), 2007 (26 injuries), and 2020 (24 injuries) show the highest num-
ber of injuries in the study area (Fig. 6b).
Results reveal a general increasing trend in the number of landslide occurrences; and
same stands true for the seasonal events increasing proportionally in different seasons, viz.,
winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon, with the highest reported landslide
incidents (333 events) in the monsoon season, which is about 35% of the total events fol-
lowed by winter season (319 events) which comprises 33% of the total and pre-monsoon
season (251 events) constituting of 26% of the total (Fig.  7). The post-monsoon season
depicted the minimum number of landslide incidents in the region that comprises only 6%
of the total landslides.

4.2 Landslides along Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH‑44) from Udhampur–

Banihal

Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH-44, erstwhile NH-1A) is one of the principal

roads of India known for its geostrategic importance for Jammu and Kashmir. A catalogue
of 303 incidents prepared for the highway (Udhampur-Banihal) has been incorporated in

Winter Pre Monsoon

60 40
Number of landslides

Number of landslides

50 35
40 30
25
30 20
20 15
10 10
5
0 0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

Year Year

Monsoon Post Monsoon

50 10
Number of landslides
Number of landslides

40 8
30 6
20 4
10 2
0 0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019

Year Year

Fig. 7  Seasonal trends of the landslide events (1990–2020)

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Natural Hazards

LDKH. An approximate estimate of landslide occurrences for the past 30 years was derived
by multiplying the reported days of landslides with the number of places hit on a particular
date. Total estimated number of landslides has been found to be 1234 with substantial dam-
age over selected time period along NH-44.
The location and the spatial distribution of landslides along NH-44 from Udham-
pur–Banihal are given in Fig.  8a. The landslide-prone areas of the highway were identi-
fied as Jawahar tunnel, Shaitani Nallah, Banihal, Moum-Passi, Makarkote, Panthal, Anokhi
Fall, Khoni Nallah, Digdol, Maroog, Seri, Deswal, Karol, Chanderkote, Nashri, Patnitop,
and Khari Belt. For assessing the variations in the frequency of incidents in different parts
of NH-44 over the time period, the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway from Udhampur to
Banihal was divided into eight sections based on the occurrence of landslides (Fig. 8b). It
was found that the section Maroog–Ramsu has the highest frequency of landslide events
followed by Ramban-Maroog, Nowgam-Jawahar Tunnel, Ramsu-Banihal and the sections
with the lowest occurrence of landslides were Udhampur-Chenani, Banihal-Nowgam, and
Chenani-Nashri. The hotspot analysis of the highway from Udhampur to Banihal using the
Fishnet and Polygon methods identifies three hotspots one with 99% confidence and the
other two with 95% and 90% confidence level lying between Nashri-Ramsu (Fig. 8c and d).
The annual variation in the frequency of the landslides shows a generally increasing
trend, backed by the decadal analysis of 303 reported landslides, which reveals that the
decade 2011–2020 has the highest frequency of landslides (146 in number) with maxi-
mum events recorded for the years 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020, followed by the decade
2001–2010 (71 events) with highest incidents seen in the years 2002, 2005, and 2007 and
decade 1990–2000 (43 events) with a maximum number of landslide occurrences in the
year 1998 (Fig. 9a). From the analysis of the seasonal variation, the maximum number of
landslides were reported in the winter season (139) followed by the monsoon (83), and pre-
monsoon (69), and the lowest in post-monsoon (12).

4.3 Socioeconomic impact of landslides along NH 44

The highway remains closed due to landslides for most of the winter and rainy seasons,
which has a variety of adverse socioeconomic impacts giving rise to incalculable suffering.
These impacts include short-term inflation due to hike in the prices of essential commodi-
ties attributed to a shortage in supply, stranded passengers, and collapse of road links with
the rest of the country. The intensity of the socioeconomic impacts of the landslides along
the NH-44 (Table 4) in the Kashmir Himalaya has repeatedly proven disastrous to the peo-
ple of the region. Here we use a qualitative measurement scale to classify the magnitude of
impacts from the landslides (Table 2). The results reveal that from 2007 onwards the inten-
sity of damage has been ‘very high’ including a rise in the number of causalities, whereas
from 1990 to 2006, the damage intensity ranges from ‘low’ to ‘high’ (Fig. 9b).

5 Discussion

Historical record suggests that the Kashmir Himalaya witnessed catastrophic landslides
activated by incessant rains, floods, and anthropogenic interventions. Precipitation has
been the main triggering factor for landslides in the region like in many mountain-
ous terrains across the globe (Niculita et al. 2017; Lin and Wang 2018; Sultana 2020).
Another reason for the high susceptibility of the Kashmir Himalaya to landslides is

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Fig. 8  a The geographical location and spatial distribution of historical landslide events of Jammu–Srinagar
National Highway (NH-44), b landslide density in different sections of the Highway, c and d hotpot analysis
of historical landslides by Fishnet and Polygon representation

because the region experiences earthquakes often resulting in huge mass movements
(Bilham and Bali 2014). In addition, the south-facing slopes of the Himalaya are largely
exposed to freeze–thaw conditions and lack of vegetative cover, making it prone to

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Natural Hazards

(a) Total no. of landslides estimated

Total no. of landslide events reported
Linear (Total no. of landslide events reported)

2016
2012
Time series

2008
2004
2000
1996
1991
0 50 100 150 200
Total number

(b) Damage
1.2
1
0.8
Intensity (-)

0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year

Fig. 9  a Annual variation in the frequency of the landslides and b annual damage intensity of landslides
along NH-44 from 1990 to 2020

landslides (Ambraseys and Bilham 2012). It has been noticed that the number of land-
slide events, fatalities, and injuries has increased over a period of time, and the results
of this study are consistent with other works of identical nature elsewhere (e.g., Haque
et al. 2016; Lin and Wang 2018). The increasing trend of the landslide occurrences may
partly be attributed to efficient and continuous reporting especially during the last few
decades. Apart from the natural factors, the occurrence of landslides has increased over
the years because of anthropogenic activities such as the construction of roads, hydro-
power project dams and removal of vegetation (Barnard et al. 2001; Sharma et al. 2012).
The cost for the maintenance of the highways in Jammu and Kashmir has also increased
over the period of years due to frequent landslide episodes.
The impact of landslides can be found to be more on the areas that are densely popu-
lated as well as on the transportation routes that are very prone to landslide hazard. The
Jammu–Srinagar highway (NH-44) also known as the “dead highway” or the “no man’s
highway” has gained the attention of many researchers considering its high susceptibil-
ity to landslides because of the unstable terrain, complex geology, seismic activity, high
precipitation, high traffic flow, and other anthropogenic activities along the highway
causing huge damage over the years in terms of fatalities, injuries, suffering and heavy
maintenance charges (Singh et  al. 2010; Chingkhei et  al. 2013). Besides, the govern-
ment of India has initiated multiple projects of road widening of NH-44, thereby expos-
ing the new areas along these corridors to landslide hazard (Pandey et al. 2014).

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Table 4  Socioeconomic impact due to landslide hazard along Udhampur–Banihal section of the Jammu–
Srinagar National Highway (1990–2020)
Year Impact of the landslide events

1991 Section of the Jammu–Srinagar highway badly damaged

1992 Section of the Jammu–Srinagar highway badly damaged
1994 Section of the Jammu–Srinagar highway badly damaged
1995 Closure of the highway, scarcity of the essential commodities, prices of several daily consumer
goods (including eggs, butter, chicken and vegetables) gone up,1000’s of the passengers stranded
and the road was damaged
1996 Highway was closed, and the section of the highway was badly damaged
1997 Highway was closed, and the road surface was damaged
1998 4000 passengers were stranded on the highway and there was the damage of the road surface
1999 Highway was closed, and the road surface was damaged
2000 Highway was blocked, and 298 vehicles were stranded
2001 Highway closed and damage of the road surface
2002 Highway was closed for several days and 5000 passengers were stranded on highway along with the
850 vehicles between Batote to Banihal
2003 Highway was closed for several days; road surface was damaged and the vehicles stranded
2004 NA
2005 Highway was closed, and the road surface was damaged
2006 One causality, highway was closed for several days, 300-m highway stretch washed away by the
heavy landslides and 1000’s of trucks leaded essential commodities and 400 passenger vehicles
were stranded
2007 Eight causalities, highway was closed and the road surface was damaged
2008 Three killed and sixteen injured, highway was closed, damage of the road surface and 400–500
trucks were stranded
2009 Highway was closed and one was injured
2010 Four killed and one injured, passengers along with 2000 small and heavy vehicles stranded on the
highway and 44 structures damaged in Dharam-Tharad area
2011 One causality, 1200 vehicles were stranded, highway was closed for traffic, 400 passengers evacuated
from Jawahar tunnel and the road was damaged
2012 Nine causalities, highway closed for several days leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir, 2000
vehicles stranded and the road was damaged
2013 Highway was closed and 500 vehicles were stranded
2014 Two killed, highway closed and traffic suspended
2015 Four causality and two injured, highway closed for several days, Amarnath yatra suspended, massive
landslide buried some vehicles and highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir
2016 Two houses and a school damage in Mundjhal area by massive landslide, highway was closed for
several days and the road was damaged
2017 A massive landslide blocked the arterial road and damaged a bridge in Udhampur district, highway
closed for several consecutive days, 1000 passengers carried journey on foot, highway closure
leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir and shortage of supplies hiked prices
2018 Seven causalities and four injured, vehicles damaged, 20,000 amaranth pilgrims stayed back and the
highway was closed
2019 Fourteen causalities, highway closure (21times in two months), over 6500 vehicles were stranded at
various places between Jammu to Banihal and other side of the Jawahar tunnel towards Kashmir,
fuel crises in Kashmir, 300 tankers lined up, highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in
Kashmir, shortage of supplies hiked prices and highway was badly damaged

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Natural Hazards

Table 4  (continued)
Year Impact of the landslide events
2020 Eight causalities and eleven injured, damaged 28 houses in Dhalwas village near Chanderkot, 500-m
stretch damaged at Ramban, over 1500 trucks remain stranded by a massive landslide, 7000 Vehi-
cles Stranded in winter slide, highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir, shortage
of supplies hiked prices and highway badly damaged

Overall, the landslide inventory with all the attributes has been quite strenuous to pre-
pare for the Kashmir Himalaya with limited availability of historical data; where land-
slides are usually reported only for their induced impacts, which impedes comprehensive
development of historical landslide database (e.g., Brabb and Harrod 1989; Lin and Wang,
2018). However, old documented records like the epic Rajatarangini written in 1150 by
Kalhanan (Stein, 1898) and the Tarikh-i-Hassan written in 1896 are some of the valuable
secondary sources for developing a hazard and disaster databases for the region (Ahmad
et al. 2021).

6 Conclusion

The present study prepared a historical landslide catalogue with impacts for the period
from 1990 to 2020. The findings of the study emanate that on an average 32 landslide
events with 34 deaths and 9 injuries occur annually. The decadal, annual, and seasonal fre-
quency of landslide occurrence from 1990 to 2020 has shown an increasing trend because
of various factors like large-scale reporting in later years, anthropogenic activities and
effect of climate change. Moreover, the results reveal that the winter and the monsoon sea-
sons have the highest occurrence of landslide events, further validating the inference that
landslides are mostly induced by rainfall in this region.
The incidence of landslide events has been found highest in the Maroog–Ramsu section
of the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway during the study period (1990–2020). Substan-
tial economic losses have also been experienced from the landslides annually during the
period that includes need for intensive labour, heavy machinery and other material for the
maintenance of roads.
The concentration of landslides and their associated impacts has been highest at three
places, among them one lies in the Pir Panjal range and the other two lie in the Greater
Himalaya side of the Kashmir Himalaya. Maximum deaths were reported from the ava-
lanche-associated incidents. In district-level analysis, 16 out of 20 districts were found to
be more prone to the landslides impacts. On the whole, the results of this study could be
used as a baseline data for understanding the spatiotemporal scenarios of landslide hazard
and developing mitigation strategies at various spatial scales including development of a
landslide early warning system for the Kashmir Himalaya.
Acknowledgements  We are thankful to the reviewers and the Editor-in-Chief for providing their invaluable
comments and suggestions that helped in improving the quality and structure of the article. We would also
like to thank Shafkat Ahsan for his contribution to the revised version of the article.

Funding  The authors have not disclosed any funding.

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 Natural Hazards

Declarations 
Conflict of interest  The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

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Authors and Affiliations

Bilquis Shah1   · M. Sultan Bhat1 · Akhtar Alam1 · Hilal Ahmad Sheikh1 · Noureen Ali1

M. Sultan Bhat
msbhatgeog@kashmiruniversity.ac.in
Akhtar Alam
alamakhtar@uok.edu.in
Hilal Ahmad Sheikh
shiekhhilal399@gmail.com
Noureen Ali
nonniemir@gmail.com
1
Department of Geography and Disaster Management, University of Kashmir, Srinagar,
Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India

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