KATHMANDU UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF GEOMATICS ENGINEERING

Project Proposal On
GIS Based Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Frequency Ratio
Approach in Sindhupalchowk, Nepal

Submitted By: Supervised By:

Anil Basnet (03) Kushal Sharma
Aadarsha Dhakal (08) Dinesh Bhatt
Cecil Ghimire (10)
Riya Pokhrel (19)
Nischal Subedi (23)

October 2021
Table of Contents
LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................................iii
LIST OF FIGURES...........................................................................................................................iii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS...........................................................................................................iii
1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background...........................................................................................................................1
1.2 Problem Statement...............................................................................................................1
1.3 Objective...............................................................................................................................1
1.3.1 Primary Objective.........................................................................................................1
1.3.2 Secondary Objectives...................................................................................................1
1.4 Scope......................................................................................................................................1
2. METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................................1
2.1 Theoretical/ Conceptual Framework.................................................................................1
2.2 Study Area............................................................................................................................2
2.3 Study Method.......................................................................................................................2
2.3.1 Literature review..........................................................................................................2
2.3.2 Data sources to be used................................................................................................2
2.3.3 Software to be used.......................................................................................................2
3. PROJECT MANAGEMENT.....................................................................................................2
4. EXPECTED OUTCOME...........................................................................................................5
5. CONCLUSION...........................................................................................................................5
6. REFERENCES............................................................................................................................5
7. APPENDIX..................................................................................................................................5
 LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1Background
Landslide susceptibility maps are a powerful decision making tool that can be used to control
the damage related to it. The map can be prepared in GIS using Frequency Ratio Approach
where landslide inventory data is compared with landslide causative factors to evaluate the
influence of each of these factors on actual landslide.

1.2Problem Statement

1.3Objective
1.3.1 Primary Objective

1.3.2 Secondary Objectives

1.4Scope

2. METHODOLOGY

2.1Theoretical/ Conceptual Framework

Literature Review

Data Collection

Data Processing

Map Preparation

1
2
2.2Study Area
Sindhupalchowk district is part of Bagmati Province of Nepal and lies 80 Km northeast of
Kathmandu, the capital. The district covers an area of 2542 km2 and houses 336,478 residents.
It is one of the vulnerable areas that is affected by natural calamities each year. This area
frequently suffers from landslide and flooding, most recent incident being 2021 Melamchi
flooding where heavy rains triggered landslide, river erosion to cause massive destruction. The
weak geological formations and local topography, combined with unsustainable land use and
extreme rainfall events often are the causal factor of such calamities in Hindu Kush Region.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222434012_Representative_rainfall_thresholds_for_
landslides_in_the_Nepal_Himalaya(link to cite)

Another major incident being Jure Landslide,2014 where extreme rainfall triggered
landslide caused havoc in the area. However, geological preconditions and extreme rainfall
were not the only important factors associated with increase landslide risk. Unsustainable
land use, the absence of effective water-channeling mechanisms and a general lack of
alternatives for the local population, uncoordinated administration also equally contribute
to contributed to the occurrence and severity of landslide in the region.
(https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:5854/CSR_Nepal_Final.pdf).Moreover, 2015
earthquake had a devastating effect on this region with the district suffering most
destruction among the district in the country

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2.3Study Method
2.3.1 Literature review

Landslide Inventory
A landslide inventory is an inventory that has records of occurrence, distribution and
characteristics of landslides that have occurred. For every known occurrence of landslide
events such inventory stores information like unique identification code, site name, location of
the event ,type of landslide ,date and time ,volume and other such relevant data.

Most of models that predict and asses the risks of landslide heavily rely on past data.
Conditions and circumstance under which the landslides have occurred is a very relevant data
for such uses. Moreover, understanding the relationship between the causal fact or and
occurrence location is even more useful for such models. Landslide inventories aid for
analysis such as land susceptibility, hazard and risk.

Multiple stakeholders might be interested to maintain and utilize such database, some of which
is mentioned .Road department might be concerned about venerable road networks that have
history of landslide occurrence near them. Moreover to extend the road network they might be
interested in choosing areas that are less prone to landslide. Similarly, Planning Departments
may be interested in landslide information to avoid planning development works in such
vulnerable areas. Forestry Department and Water department might be interested in knowing
how landslides have been affecting the forests and water. Similarly, any other authority
concerned with network infrastructures like railway, transmission line would be interested in
landslide information. For a country like Nepal that frequently suffers from such calamities, a
national landslide inventory with database capabilities would serve all stakeholders.

i. In landslide studies, causative

factors are usually selected based
on
ii. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area

4
iii. In landslide studies, causative
factors are usually selected based
on
iv. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area
v. In landslide studies, causative
factors are usually selected based
on
vi. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area
vii. In landslide studies, causative
factors are usually selected based
on
viii. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area

5
 ix. In landslide studies, causative
factors are usually selected based
on
x. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area
xi. In landslide studies, causative
factors are usually selected based
on
xii. the analysis of the landslide
types and the characteristics of
the study area
Causative factors are selected on the basis of type of landslide and characteristics of the study
area. Common causative factors include elevation slope plan curvature, distance to drainage
network. Selection of causal factor is key consideration in Landslide Susceptibility Map
studies. The selection of positive causal factor contributes to increased accuracy of result.
Hence it is of utmost importance to quantify the factors and remove ones with low or
productivity to be removed.

A necessary assumption in Landslide prediction is based on fact that future landslide occur
under the same circumstance that past landslide have occurred and such landslide in the past
occur due to causative factors or combination of them.The frequency ratio approach is based
on assumption that the potential occurrence possibility of landslides will be comparable to the
actual frequency of landslides. It is based on quantitative evaluation of relationship between
landslide causative factors and landslide inventory. This approach is based on the observed
relationship, that seem to have existed between distribution of landslide and each landslide-
related factor to reveal the correlation between landslide locations and the factors in the study
area. Hence this method includes calculating frequency based on analysis of the relation

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between landslide and causal factors. The frequency ratio is the ratio of the area where
landslides occurred to the total study area, and also, is the ratio of the probabilities of a
landslide occurrence to a non-occurrence for a given factor’s attribute.
(link_to_cite(PDF) Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island,
Malaysia (researchgate.net)).

Another approach commonly applied method of LMS is bivariate logistic regression.

The validation results on previous works notably by Pradhan and Youssef have shown that the
frequency ratio model (accuracy is 89.25%) is better in prediction of landslide than bivariate
logistic regression (accuracy is 85.73%) model.(link to cite(PDF) Manifestation of remote
sensing data and GIS on landslide hazard analysis using spatial-based statistical models
(researchgate.net))

Where,

This value will be used as weightage factor for each causative factor and will be fetched into
raster calculator to obtain susceptibility map.

2.3.2 Data sources to be used

2.3.3 Software to be used

3. PROJECT MANAGEMENT
3.1 Timeline/Gantt Chart
Month October November December

Topic W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1
Project Selection

Literature review

Research

Proposal defense

Data collection
Map preparation
Report writing 7
Final presentation
 3.2 Logical Framework Analysis

Objective

Analysis

Method

Activities

When

Risk

Solutions

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 4. EXPECTED OUTCOME
Landslide Susceptibility Map that shows potential landslide regions into five zones of
susceptibility from very high, high, moderate, low to very low susceptibility.

5. CONCLUSION

6. REFERENCES

7. APPENDIX