A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR FLOOD

PREDICTION BASED ON REMOTE SENSING

A SYNOPSIS SUBMITTED TO LAHORE COLLEGE FOR WOMEN

UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR
THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN COMPUTER SCIENCE

By
Khansa Aatif

SUPERVISOR
Dr. Muhammad Abuzar Fahiem
Professor
Department of Computer Science, LCWU.

CO-SUPERVISOR
Dr. Fahima Tahir
Assistant Professor
Department of Computer Science, LCWU

___________________________________________________
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
LAHORE COLLEGE FOR WOMEN UNIVERSITY, LAHORE
2022
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A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR FLOOD

PREDICTION BASED ON REMOTE SENSING

Candidate:

Name: Khansa Aatif

Roll No. 1725310003
Reg No. 17/LCWU-52
Session: 2017 Fall

Place of Work:
(i) Department/Lab of Computer Sciences,
Lahore College for Women University
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List of Figures

Fig. No. Title Page No.

Figure 1 Factors Contribute to Floods………………………………………………………………………………….9

Figure 2 Flow of different methodologies applied in this Research ………………………...32
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List of Tables

Table No. Title Page No.

Table 1 A comparison of different techniques used for flood prediction…………………23

Table 2 Data Layers used in this research……………………………………………….... 28

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Contents

1. List of Figures.............................................................................................................................iii
2. List of Tables..............................................................................................................................iv
3. Abstract.......................................................................................................................................vi
4. Introduction.................................................................................................................................1
5. Aims and Objectives..................................................................................................................10
6. Review of Literature..................................................................................................................11
7. Data Sets used in this research...................................................................................................28
8. Problem Statement.....................................................................................................................30
9. Methodology.............................................................................................................................30
10. References ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 33
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Abstract

This research presents a methodological approach based on the link between data acquired
through Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System technologies to monitor an
upcoming flood, and to generate timely flood warning.

Over the course of human history, floods are undoubtedly the most common and ravaging
form of catastrophe. Floods have led to massive losses in terms of both human and
economic loss over centuries. In last few decades, governments, across the globe, have
made significant efforts to setup effective systems and ensure measures to minimize the
devastation caused by floods. Despite all these efforts, still there is a lot of room for
improvement in this area and there is pressing need for new and advance tools that would
allow to assess the impact of possible flooding and take preventive and corrective
measures well in advance. There are multiple factors (rainfall, terrain configuration,
geological aspects, already available protection measures, economic activities in the area
and many more) which effect flood generation, propagation and destruction. Thus, these
tools shall be capable of considering all the relevant parameters and assess all the
scenarios in a structured and systematic way.

Keeping this in view, we propose a comprehensive flood decision support system. Our aim
is to generate a dependable and timely forecast using this Decision Support System. The
results of our proposed flood forecasting decision support system will be primarily based
on the data acquired through remote sensing. Our Decision Support System is a computer-
based system designed to support decision makers to predict the flood over a spatial area.

This Spatial Decision Support System is aimed to assist in flood forecasting and raise an
alarm in pre-disaster situation. It will provide support in avoiding the whole or a part of
the catastrophe. The system would be tested in any area of Pakistan through a case study.
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1. Introduction

1.1. Flood

Of all the natural catastrophes, floods are the most recurrent (46%) and destructive in
terms of overall loss and anguish for humans (about 78% of population is directly or
indirectly affected by natural calamities). The frequency of floods is double the rate at
which other natural disasters happen and their impact is about three times as compared to
typical cyclones with regard to affecting human population. While the death ratio in
earthquakes is higher, floods affect higher number of people. (20,000 affected per death
for floods vs. 150 affected per death for earthquakes) (OFDA/CRED, 2006).

Flood’s effect covers more geographical area than any other disaster in this world.
Indirect losses are even more than direct damages. Major flood period in South Asia is
from June to July while floods are worse in Sept/Oct in Central America and in Feb for
South America. Flood’s devastation has nothing to do with any particular season in
Africa.

A study conducted by the United Nations University (2004) shows that over half a billion
people are impacted by floods annually worldwide. Further, by the year 2050, this
number is expected to reach almost two billion, of which, a lopsided number lives in Asia
(44% of all flood disasters worldwide and 93% of flood-related deaths in the decade
1988-1997). Flood’s bearings and People’s requirements are not just connected to the
water level. Their living circumstances and conditions do not essentially improve when
the water recedes. The real challenge begins after the floodwater recedes and people try
starting their normal life again.

1.1.1 Flood Types

Flood may be of any of the given type

 Regional Flood
 Flash flood
 Coastal Flood
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Regional floods may occur due to overflow of rivers, streams or lakes. That may happen due
to heavy rainfall, series of continues rainfall or storm tides. Flash flood occur when heavy
rainfall appears during short interval of time. It happens suddenly and its magnitude is very
high. Coastal floods occur due to extreme weather on the coastal area, elevation sea water,
high tides in sea water and specially when the land is low lying and dry.

Among all of them flash flood is most frequent and disastrous in the world. Flash floods are
closely related to the intensity of precipitation, climate conditions, terrain characteristics, and
human activities as well as the drainage conditions in the basin [1].

1.1.2 Flood Causes:

Floods can happen due to a number of reasons. These reasons can be related to a number of
factors. These factors can be categories in different groups. Meteorological group of factors
include Rainfall, Humidity, Temperature, Wind speed, Wind direction. Hydrological factors
like water level in rivers, dams and in different water reservoirs, Topographical factors like
Elevation, slope, terrain of the area, drainage system study, land use study. Geological data
like different rock units, soil types.

There could be several reasons of flood but the first one is rainfall, severe rainfall over a short
duration of time or continuous series of rainfall. Monsoon rainfall up to 2000 or 3000 mm per
year create floods. Water ways may be blocked by debris or drainage system of area do not
have the capability to bear the intense rainfall.

Dams and rivers were not able to hold the water. Tropical cyclones form in some tropical and
subtropical areas, usually in the summer and fall can also create rainfall. The increment in
temperatures that goes with an unnatural weather change can add to tropical storms that move
even more gradually and drop more rainfall.

River overflowing is another cause of flood. It is not always rainstorms which make a river
overflow river may be blocked by ice jams or debris. Dam breaks is also a reason of flood.
There is a fast runoff of water in reservoirs which have steep sides. Waterways with steep
banks often contribute to flood.

Vegetation and forests help rain water to absorb quickly. Paved surfaces cannot absorb water
so urban areas are more vulnerable to floods. Geographical Information System-based
analysis states that Land use changes closely related to vulnerability of flood in positive or
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negative way [2]. Land use changes like deforestation plays very important role in inviting
flood.

Flood and deforestation have direct relationship. Forest reduces the rate of flood in many
ways. Trees can absorb water and their roots can grip the soil in place, in that way trees can
stop sediments runoffs. Sediment runoff can block water ways of reservoirs thus could be the
reason of flood. Roots of trees absorbs water leaving land drier so land still has the capacity
to absorb rainwater. A forest can absorb more water than a farm because tree leaves can hold
water drops which evaporates later. One of the examples of deforestation and flood
relationship is Yangtze River floods China in 1998.

Ice Glaciers melting could also be the reason of flooding. When large glaciers melt, they can
raise the water level in lakes, create flood in down valleys.

Kodoatie and Syarief explained that the factors that cause floods include changes in land use,
waste management, erosion and sedimentation, slums along rivers, improper flood control
systems, high rainfall, river physiography, inadequate river capacity, effects of high tides,
land subsidence, water structures, and damage to flood control structures [3].

1.1.3 Benefits of Timely Flood Prediction

Timely forecast of flood can save lives, livestock, property. It could be helpful in taking
appropriate emergency measures before flood. A timely flood warning can reduce the flood
impact even if all is not saved. Timely warning reduces future expenses of reinstallation of
infrastructure in affected area. But warning should be clear and easily understandable to all
even the illiterate people.

This lead time can be effectively used to implement measures either to reduce the
consequence of flooding through for example evacuation, or to reduce flooding itself through
controlling dedicated hydraulic structures [4].

Effectively working flood foreseeing systems can reduce the disaster and save lives [5].

1.1.4 Flood Prediction Techniques

Flood warning systems are typically tailor-made to suit the specific requirements for specific
regions [6].
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Different methods are used for flood forecasting.

In some areas where rainfall and flood are frequent, sensors are used on weather stations to
observe different meteorological parameters and then forecast is directly transferred to public
through radio, Global System for Mobile Communications or web.

Simply hydrological model is used. Model takes rainfall and other met parameters as input
and create rainfall- runoff model. Models are mathematical representations of the real
dynamics of the hydrological processes. Hydrological models take real time or forecasted
rainfall data as input and calculate surface runoff water or total water flow through a river
network in return. Hydrological modeling is in practice for many researchers. Many flood
foreseeing systems include an inundation modeling component.

Data-driven techniques/models have gained a significant attention for flood forecasting in

recent years.

In recent studies machine learning or deep learning algorithms for example Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) are used for streamflow modeling. They predict more accurately. The use of
ANN in real time flood forecasting is not old and is still in the evolution stage.

Artificial neural networks were mainly used in Malaysia and Australia for flood forecasting.
Convolutional neural networks algorithms also give accurate results regarding urban area
flood water depth when used in UK.

GIS technology is also incorporated with hydrological model results to create flood
inundation maps, to assess flood risk. GIS technology is used to take full benefit of
geographical information. Geographic information system (GIS) provides a broad range of
tools for determining area affected by floods and for forecasting areas that are likely to be
flooded due to high water level in a river. Geographic information system was extensively
used to assemble information from different maps, aerial photographs, satellite images and
digital elevation models (DEM).

GIS and Remote sensing together have become the mostly used technology for flood
foreseeing these years. Topographical details can also be combined in the GIS. Remote
sensing is widely used to trace out land use/Land cover changes.

Very recently some researchers have started using satellite precipitation products instead of
getting rainfall data from ground stations because of their high spatial and temporal
resolutions which is good for flood simulations in urban areas.
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1.2. Remote Sensing

Remote sensing mean acquiring information about an object without making any physical
contact.
Now a days this term is mostly used about acquiring information about objects on earth and
other planets. It is a great source of getting spatial information. In Remote Sensing aircrafts
or satellites are used to monitor physical characteristics of objects on earth, in the oceans or
in the atmosphere without touching them. They send propagated signals and sense features of
these objects by receiving electromagnetic radiation reflected or emitted from those objects.
By taking images of same area but at different time spans we can also analyze the changes at
earth.

1.2.1 Remote Sensing Types:

There are two types of Remote Sensing.

I. Active Remote Sensing

Active Remote Sensing sensor create their own energy and throw it to the object and
then detect the signals reflected back from the object. Radars, lidars, laser, sounder,
GPS, x-ray and sonar are the examples of active remote sensing. This type of remote
sensing is not dependent on daylight and atmospheric scattering. It works well in day
and night.

II. Passive remote Sensing

Passive Remote Sensor sense the reflected sunlight from the objects to analyze that
object or area. Examples of passive remote sensors include
film photography, infrared, charge-coupled devices, radiometers and accelerometer.
Human eye and camera are also examples of passive type of Remote Sensing.

History of modern Remote Sensing begins when a balloonist took photographs of Paris from
his balloon with newly invented photo camera in 1840s. Other examples of earliest practices
of Remote Sensing includes pigeons, kites, rockets and unnamed balloons. A series of ariel
photography using different aircrafts happened during World War II and cold war for the
 6

purpose of observing military activities. Other types of Remote Sensing techniques like radar,
sonar and thermal infrared also developed during World War II.

1.2.2 Remote Sensing Applications

Some of the examples of Remote Sensing are:

 Satellite and aircraft sensors can show us such view of earth which we can never see
from ground.
 Sonar system attached with ships can take pictures of seabed without going to the
bottom of Ocean.
 Satellite cameras can trace the temperature changes of oceans.

Some specific uses of remotely sensed images of the Earth include:

 Helpful in mapping forest fire areas which is not an easy task while standing on
ground
 Weather tracking and predicting
 Helpful in disasters by giving timely information about upcoming Dust storms,
hurricanes, volcanoes eruption and floods.
 Can trace the changes in forest and urban areas over the period of time
 Remote Sensing can trace and map seabed features and do the rugged topography e.g.
deep gorges, mountain ranges with varied peaks, magnetic stripping on floor.
 Mountain ranges, Forests, deep canyons, caves can be traced.
 Through Remote Sensing we can observe features from those areas where it is
difficult for humans to reach like amazon forests, Antarctic regions.
 Data collection is fast and cheap through Remote Sensing moreover it does not
disrupt the object or area during data collection.
 The cartographer can map information which is a direct product of remote sensing or
which has been processed by a GIS
 Through cartography remote sensing product information can be mapped.
 Remote sensing through laser technology can measure natural chemical species in the
atmosphere and sense sir pollutants in the environment.
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1.2.3 Role of Remote Sensing in Flood

Remote sensing technology is a great help in flood monitoring and prediction. Satellite and
aircraft remote sensing technologies help in identification of flood vulnerable areas and
prepare flood risk maps. GIS along with remote sensing systems are becoming very popular
for flood modelling, forecasting and management.

RS data is also used to investigate the different flood causative factors. For a correct flood
prediction sometimes, a country may need to collect some information across the border here
remote sensing technology can provide help. The availability of multitemporal satellite data
makes it possible to monitor flood over large areas at once. Traditional hydrological flood
modelling systems have limited use in emergency response as compared to remote sensing.

1.3 Decision Support System

A DSS is a computer-based application which collects and analyzes essential data and
information in order to give best possible decision in a particular situation. General structure
of a DSS contains a User Interface and Modeling Management System and knowledge base.
DSS may have an interactive interface and it helps its users by providing answers to their
questions.

Decision support systems are programed in such manner that it provides help to stakeholders
whenever required. It evaluates bulk of data and information to reach at best possible
solution. It analyses data and knowledge from different fields and prepare a solution in a way
which regular systems cannot. Decision support systems are prepared for a specific area like
medicine, business etc.

Correct performance of DSS depends upon the data and knowledge stored in it. Sometimes
DSS does not give any decision but it only helps in taking decisions by providing necessary
helpful data. It saves essential data and information in it for users to take their decisions at
right time.

For example, a DSS can help a company manager to determine that in a specific area which
of the product has more customers or which part of the year is popular/hot for a product’s
sale.

1.4 Focus of Our Research

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Numerous measures have been taken for reducing the effects of floods. Some of these include
the construction of embankments on the side of the river, the adoption of land use policies as
in the Yangtze River in China setting flood retention areas in order to mitigate damages
downstream. Defenses like embankments, reservoirs, dams, and barrages are used to avoid
flood. If these fails emergency measures like inflatable tubes and sand bags are adopted.
These flood prevention methods are very expensive for any nation and could be perilous for
their economy specially in case of third world countries. A forecast with good enough lead
time can save many of these expenses.

For this reason, a comprehensive flood Decision Support System is proposed. Our focus is to
generate a reliable, timely, accurate and real time forecast through Decision Support System.
Decision Support Systems are normally based on numerical weather predictions, rainfall data
and hydrological modelling. But our flood forecasting Spatial Decision Support System will
give results mainly on the basis of data acquired through remote sensing including satellite
imageries. System will be designed to assess topographical, meteorological and hydrological
details too. Moreover, proposed research will use longitudinal remotely sensed data.
Longitudinal or panel data help trace out land use changes, changes in hydro-meteorological
behavior and how flood respond to these changes over the period of time. It could help in
investigating factors that increase the physical vulnerability to flood. Prediction could be
more accurate and early by using a series of repeated observations over some extended period
of time.

Proposed DSS will have a User Interface. DSS will then help stakeholders and users by
creating an early flood prediction. Users can query the system and visualize the results.

This SDSS is designed mainly to assist in a pre-disaster situation to forecast flood, to create
an alert. It will help us to avoid some part or whole disaster, to take better measures by
assisting people. The system would be tested in any area of Pakistan through a case study.

Proposed research will cover the processes of flood monitoring, flood forecasting, flood
warning and real time decision making. A comprehensive and clear flood warning would be a
part of our DSS.
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Figure 1: Factors Contribute to Floods

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2. Aims and Objectives

The objectives of this study include:

1- To present an efficient method for predicting flood.

2- To develop a spatial decision support system which assess the vulnerability of flood
and thus help to mitigate the disastrous effects of flood.
3- To present a universally applicable Decision Support System which will provide a
comprehensive and clear information regarding flood prediction.
4- Real time flood forecasting.
5- Generating an early and timely flood warning.
6- Help people saving their lives and properties before time.
7- Help reducing economic losses faced by government.
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3. Review of Literature

Here study focused on the vulnerability of flood in the region of Perlis, Malaysia. For this
purpose, 3 approaches are integrated Analytic Network Process (ANP), Geographical
Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). Moreover, data is gained from 16
experts of different fields through interview, questionnaire and field investigations. Data is
gained through quantitative as well as qualitative sources. ANP assigns weights to different
flood causing factors and calculate the level of flood susceptibility. ANP is a mathematical
model. It helps in decision making. GIS tool ArcGIS is used to extract flooded areas in
satellite images, tool also used to classify land use categories. With the collaboration of
Satellite images and GIS tool flood susceptible zones were identified [7].

In Jeddah there were 2 severe flash flood events in 2009 and 2011. The main reasons behind
these floods were massive rainfall, heavy rainstorms, poor drainage and some other
geological factors. These flood events were proved to be very dangerous for vehicles, houses
and other infrastructure of city. On the long run basis there were many reasons of these floods
e.g. change in urban areas with the passage of time, poor drainage network in the city,
geological features and climate change factors. Topographic map of the city helps in
understanding the drainage network system of city. Field investigations were conducted
before and after floods which help in knowing flood causes.

A database was created that includes relevant resulting products and Remote Sensing
Imageries. A GIS is used for compilation and analysis of these datasets. ArcGIS software is
used as GIS tool. These datasets consist of satellite images, Rainfall data, DEM, Topographic
map, Field investigation and published work. RS data was used to extract different kinds of
information e.g., urban areas, geomorphological units, mapping of flood areas. RS images
were used for mapping urban changes throughout the time. Urban areas mapping with
different time span were applied with ArcGIS 10.2. Geomorphological units were mapped
with help of geological details and Remote sensing images of area. Comparison of Images
before and after the flood helped to detect flooded areas. As we already have the information
of drainage basins and drainage network of the area through Digital Elevation Model (DEM).
 12

Rainfall records been evaluated and peak discharge for different drainage basins were
calculated. All different factors are evaluated and their role in flood is analyzed [8].

Main purpose of this research is to flood forecasting in a particular area and generating maps
of vulnerable areas in Fogera Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia. DEM, Landsat images are
assembled in ArcGIS to produce flood inundation maps. Landsat Images of different time
span were used to detect land use/cover changes.

Flood causative factors were identified through field survey and listed in order of their
importance. They are given weights as a result of field survey, discussion with relative
authorities and on the basis of literature. Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) technique is applied
on these factors to predict flood hazard and to identify flood vulnerable areas. Major factors
identified are soil type, land use characteristics, drainage capacity, precipitation and
topographic characteristics of area. Census data and other relevant statistical data were also
used to make the risk map.

Integration of GIS tool and MCE technique proved itself a good approach for identifying and
measuring flood hazard, and help in taking proper decisions [9].

SAIH program was being used for the management and supervision of water reservoirs.
SAIH program is expanded a little more and a flood forecasting system and DSS is
developed. An information system is developed which observe and transfer the hydrological
and meteorological updates. The program is implemented for the main river basin of Spain.
The name of the developed system is Delft-FEWS (Flood Early Warning System). Flood
forecasting is based on result of different models and data. Three types of data are being used,
Numerical weather predictions, Satellite precipitation data, observed hydrological and
meteorological data from different weather stations through sensors. All the data is then used
for flood forecasting modeling. DSS offers an interactive decision making through User
Interface. System also offers a check on the flood forecasting accuracy. System also has the
capability of making better plans for managing dams and other water reservoirs so that the
damage could be minimized after flood and making the reservoirs safety maximum [4].

Here a DSS called Decision Support for Management of Floods (DESMOF) is established.
System can not only help in foreseeing flood but also help in control of flood and reducing
damages created by flood. DSS is then applied in the Red River Basin in Manitoba, Canada.

System consists of 4 parts. First is User Interface which is made by using visual basic and an
interaction source between system and users. Users of system can ask queries through GUI.
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2nd part is knowledge base which consists of human knowledge as well as heuristics
knowledge. Knowledge base helps decision makers in taking measures to reduce flood
harmful impact. Analytical tools are used to analyze information available in knowledge
base. 3rd part is Model base which consists of a number of tools like HEC-RAS and MIKE 21
are hydrodynamic modeling tools used to create flood forecast by simulating rainfall-runoff.
HEC-FDA model is for flood damage analysis. 4 th part Database of DESMOF consists of
topographical data, Land use data and hydrological data. All 4 parts are integrated to each
other.

The artificial neural networks (ANN) with a recurrent back-propagation algorithm is used to
forecast flood. ANN uses 5 parameters as input, these are: 1) Rainfall 2) Snow melt Index
3) Only winter rainfall 4) Spring rainfall 5) Timing factor [10].

This paper presents a flood foreseeing method for the upper middle Indus River, Pakistan.
Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) hydrological model was already used to forecast flood
but that system could not prove itself better during 2010 flood in Pakistan. IFAS(Integrated
Flood Analysis System) is developed which regionally parameterized. IFAS can create an
early flood warning with good lead time and proves itself a very helpful to the citizens.

Flood peaks at different stages of flood of Indus River in 2010 are calculated through IFAS
and matched with the observed one. Both are quite similar. Rainfall data and discharge data
also analyzed with IFAS to check the suitability of IFAS.

The travel time of flood from Terbela (flood starting point) till Taunsa (flood end point) is
also calculated by system. Calculation of travel time is very helpful for saving human lives
and their properties. System calculate forecast on the basis of Global Satellite Mapping of
Precipitation (GSMap) data. Flood discharge is calculated with IFAS, results show the
similarities with measured discharge values. Precipitation data provided by Satellite was not
100% correct, it is corrected and then applied. Rainfall data, flood duration and flood peak
are calculated through GSMap and Satellite 3B42RT. Satellite 3B42RT results are not found
accurate while GSMap provides a great help [11].

Study describes the structure of operational flood warning system. A European Flood
Forecasting System is developed. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) integrated with
hydrological modeling is used to forecast flood. System generates a 5 to 10 days early
warning. Paper supports the idea of pre warning system. Use of NWP help in generating early
forecast.
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NWP method does not create accurate results but it supports flood warning with reasonable
lead time.

The proposed structure of Pan-European pre-warning system can be divided into four steps.
In first step of detection, real time hydrological and meteorological data is monitored. Second
stage is forecasting, in this stage flood time is forecasted, as a third step a clear flood warning
should be generated for users. And last step is response in which authorities should take
proper measures to reduce expected flood damages. Spreading a flood warning and
generating proper response are as important steps as prediction and forecasting of flood.
System DELFT HYDRAULICS is developed in conjunction with the EFFS project, that is
based on using meteorological forecasts in hydrological models [12].

A flood forecasting system according to the user’s requirements with the purpose of reducing
flood risk is developed. System is applied on different time scales on a particular location.
Area is agricultural and farmers were the people, badly affected.

It was observed through interviews and questionnaires that people need at least 20 days
forecast to make better decisions about their crops and manage their livings. So that farmers
can take better decision about harvesting or cutting their crops. For this purpose, Probabilistic
flood forecasting technique is used. European Center for Medium Range Forecasts
(ECMWF) ensembles precipitation forecasts (with 10 days lead time), DEM, historical
Hydrological data, satellite images are combined with GIS and hydrological tools to make
this DSS.

System also provide help regarding flood risk assessment. On the basis of scientific
information system guide its users about precautionary measures and how to manage flood
risk. DSS helps users to decide whether to cultivate or harvest a product on time or not by
giving timely flood forecast. People can query DSS about different scenarios of their crops
and their living and emergency situations. DSS is user friendly and can provide information
about flood management, flood risk extent. Flood warning is spread through physical
communication medium and SMS [13].

In this paper a flood database system is generated which contained hypothetical data. Data of
database system is used to analyze flood behavior and to make decisions about flood
warning. The system is then checked in the Upper Citarum watershed, West Java, Indonesia.
This way of making a decision is far better than numerical modelling as numerical modelling
is a long process. Numerical modeling method does not generate accurate and timely results.
 15

Here a flood database is created on the basis of numerical modeling. Neural network
modelling method is trained with flood behavior with the help of that database. ANN
modeling is used here to create rainfall-runoff method. ANN modelling always proves itself a
better approach to solve problems, identifying different patterns and establish relationship
between input and output. Study considers both maximum daily rainfall and series rainfall of
the area because series rainfall creates wide-ranging flood. In this method flood prediction
would depend on amount of rainfall and its time. System will predict flood characteristics in
response of user’s input about rainfall time and amount. System can predict flood, can also
estimate flood depth and travel time of flood in river basin area. System provides correct and
quick results [14].

Here, easily accessible internet-based flood decision support system is developed within EU
project FLOODRELIEFE. The DSS is then applied to regional flood forecasting in the
FLOODRELIEFE study catchment the welland and Glen, UK. Hydrological, Meteorological
and radar technologies were integrated in this decision support system. GIS based maps were
used to display flood status, meteorological observations like numerical weather forecasts.
This DSS was later integrated with THOR weather forecasting system. This integration
improves its qualitative and quantitative information. THOR is a highly portable, low cast
operational numerical forecasting system. A true DSS should provide accurate information on
time and to the right people who need that information, and in a way that can be understood
easily.

Paper also deals with the uncertainty range. There are many uncertainties in flood forecasting
operation. There may be processing errors or human errors, channel blockage, dyke failure.
To handle these issues, ensemble-based approach was adopted. This is generic operational
approach for the evaluation and presentation of flood forecasting uncertainty [15].

This paper proposed a system in which water reservoir operations can be decided on the basis
of meteorological and hydrological forecasts of the area. Purpose of the study was to reduce
the damages occurred due to flood in 2011. System is then tested at Chao Phraya River
Basin, Thailand where huge flood occurred in 2011. This method is named as “PlanU”.
Hydrological model developed here can be divided into 6 different components. These
components deal with water reservoir processes, reservoirs hydrology, river and stream
routes, betterment of environment and crops.
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Study shows that 2011 flood can be avoided if stored water was released already before
flood. In that case water reservoirs could have too huge storage capacity to avoid flood. Study
also shows that weather prediction was not properly used. If meteorological prediction from
the month June to September were considered properly flood loss can be reduced up to 4%.

Study proposes another plan that is “PlanM”. In comparison of “PlanU”, “PlanM” can
mitigate the 2011 flood by 20%. PlanM is far better than PlanU as water reservoir storage
capacity is higher in PlanM. According to “PlanM” water reservoirs will made empty earlier
than in “PlanU” [16].

Study is about riverine flood forecast in Malaysia. To check the level of water in river 2
machine learning algorithms are used 1) Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model
(NARX) 2) Support Vector Machine (SVM). Both algorithms take meteorological and
hydrological parameters as input like rainfall, river inflow, historical flood data etc. Historical
flood data consists of 2 years data of 7 different lakes floods in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Both
algorithms fall in the category of supervised machine learning algorithms. Models are at first
trained with training data. NARX algorithm take historical data as input and predict the flood
as output. SVM algorithm develop a hyperplane of river water level and on the basis of that
hyperplane it generates flood forecast. Algorithm gave flood forecast 5 hours before the
flood. In some scenarios linear procedures cannot create correct forecast. It is observed that
use of statistical methods along with NARX algorithm can forecast flood 100 % correctly
[17].

An Artificial Neural network (ANN) model is developed which outputs flood inundation
maps with a high grid resolution of (4m x 4m). A database of synthetic events is prepared
with the help of study are and datasets. Model receives multiple discharge inputs. Model is
trained with synthetic events. Tow famous ANN algorithms are compared to achieve better
efficiency that is Resilient backpropagation and Conjugate gradient. Resilient
backpropagation proved better. 120 synthetic events were used as training datasets and 60
events as testing dataset. ANN model is compared with hydraulic model. Both models
provided with same input that is inflows of seven streams. ANN proved itself better in
prediction of flood inundation extents [18].

Flash flood is a type of flood which happens suddenly and with a high magnitude. There are
many factors which lead to flash flood in Vietnam like heavy rain fall within short time
period, steep slopes and deforestation. Here a hybrid model is presented which is the
 17

combination of 3 components CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector), RS

(Remote Sensing) and BBO (Biogeography) for the purpose of flash flood warning. To detect
the flash flood all 3 components worked together. 10 factors are identified through field
investigations that can cause flood. Theses factors are observed in detail and stored in
geospatial database. These factors cover rainfall, topographical details of area, soil and rock
texture, water reservoirs capacity and land use details. Pearson correlation analysis method is
used to check the validity of these flood factors for modeling. Historical flash floods records
are also collected. CHAID model is a classification Tree technique. BBO algorithm is
an evolutionary algorithm that optimizes a model parameters. 

A database of 1866 locations was constructed. Database locations selected on the basis of
satellite images, analysis of flood causative factors, and field investigation with handheld
GPS. 70% of these locations were used for training the model and 30% locations were tested
with the proposed model. The proposed model is compared against 5 machine learning
algorithms too and proved itself better for predicting flash flood and give accuracy of 90%
[19].

Paper supports the idea of using satellite precipitation data for flood forecasting and mapping
instead of measuring rainfall through gauges on ground. Satellite precipitation can cover
larger area and provide more frequent data of rainfall and give more accurate results. Ground
stations for the measurement of rain fall are limited and cannot cover whole area. A new
real time Flood foreseeing approach is presented which uses satellite precipitation products
(SPPs) as input in a rainfall-runoff model. Approach is tested for Ottawa watershed in
Canada during the period from10 April to 10May 2017. The hydrological model transforms
precipitation details to runoff. Here suggested methodology has two components, 1)
Estimation of hydrological model runoff discharge 2) Flood extent mapping. A model named
“Continuous Lumped Hydrological Model” (MILc), is selected, the model initially receives
rainfall input from ground stations and give good results. Model also receives air temperature
and observed discharge data as input.

For flood extent mapping, the HEC-RAS model is used which needs geometric and flow data.
Model is tested then with satellite precipitation products with the same temperature and
discharge details. Two different Satellite precipitation products with different spatial and
temporal resolution are choose, IMERG and TMPA. Results are then compared with both
type of precipitation input. It is observed that discharge hydrograph based on IMERG gives
satisfactory results. Both MILc model based on observed data and model based on IMERG
 18

data gives good results on flood extent mapping. The use of Synthetic Aperture Radar images
proved to be a good choice [20].

It is necessary to completely understand the reasons of flood in a particular area before

developing models of flood forecasting. Response of a particular area to flood depends on
many factors like soil, vegetation, land use, geology, topographical details of that area. Urban
drainage systems play a very important role too. All these factors serve as input parameters in
hydrological and hydraulic modeling. Topographic map of an area can gives us catchment
size and shape while natural features of a particular area can be availed geological, land use,
soil and vegetation maps. There must be a flood forecasting system, river water level and
rainfall regarding details must be known in any area where heavy rainfall is a usual
phenomenon.

The system developed in this project has 3 components. One is a hydrological modelling
system, which gives rainfall runoff details of many catchments in a basin. Second one is a
hydrodynamic model which calculates river water levels and water flows of river and
different reservoirs. Third one is flood warning module which can compute stream flow and
give flood warning 3 days before the flood [21].

A decision support system is developed to predict and control flood in Han River basin
Korea. A database is used to store hydrological and meteorological data. GIS is used to
process hydro meteorological data and also used to analyze spatial rainfall data. Flood
forecasting module forecast flood with the help of Artificial Neural network model. ANN
used analyzed rainfall data as input for its model. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is used
here to generate different thematic maps like slope, aspect and elevation contours. SDSS has
a graphical user interface with the help of which users can analyze spatial and temporal
rainfall data. Artificial neural network is used to model complex nonlinear input-output time-
series relationships successfully. The ANN approach proves to be a good and effective way
of modeling the rainfall-runoff process in situations where explicit knowledge of the internal
hydrologic subprocesses is unattainable [22].

A web-based Decision support system is developed for flood forecasting and warning for the
city of Jinan, China. System will predict flood on the basis of real time rainfall and
hydrological data. It is very helpful for forecasting of river and urban flooding. Public
authorities will be benefited from the system to take timely measures. The system integrates
GIS, database and some models. Database plays a very important role and stores
 19

Geographical maps, rainfall station maps, flood simulation results maps, historical data, real
time data, meteorological and hydrological information and topographical information. The
GIS serves as a plate form for data integration, data analysis and visualization of flood
warning. Different flood scenarios can be query. Users with appropriate privileges can access
the system through the web browser and perform operations.

Flood in urban settlements can be simulated with rainfall-runoff models and hydrodynamic
models. Here Flood foreseeing is based on the results of a hydrodynamic model (Urban Flood
Simulation Model). DSS issue 4 types of flood warnings on the bases of intensity, blue
warning, yellow warning, orange warning and red warning. The UFSM model takes online
rain measurement and numerical weather forecast data as input and generate a real time flood
forecast [23].

This paper looks at developing the most effective flood determining model. For this purpose,
three Machine Learning Algorithms were tested Decision Tree, Random Forest and Gradient
Boost. In the model complicated information and high-level algorithm was used to improve
the rate of prediction. The Malaysian government was using the Flood Detection and
Warning System (FLoWS) to check the water level. The system informs general people and
local authorities about flood threat through SMS and MMS. People can also view the live
graph of water level through an android application. To observe the water level system uses
ultrasonic sensor. Sensors gathers data like water distance, temperature, humidity, and flood
level.

Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) is a computer tool which is utilized for mapping
flood conditions around the world. it is utilized by zooming into an area of interest on the
system's global interactive guide to see if flood is coming, subsiding, or rising.

System can also notify if there is a rain and when there is cloud cover or other impedance,
System receives rainfall data from NASA's earth observing satellites. Precipitation data from
GFMS is joined with a land surface model that fuses vegetation cover, soil type, and terrain
to decide how much water is absorbing and what amount is feeding the streamflow. users can
view statistics for rainfall, streamflow, water profundity, and flooding every 3 hours.

The dataset was obtained from a website called the India Water Portal. Real-time data is used
to forecast flood in the surroundings of flood prone areas. All three algorithms were used to
train the model to determine which is the best. These were Decision Tree, Gradient Boost and
Random Forest. The dataset was then split into training and test data. It was divided in a
 20

75:25 ratio, 75% data is used as training data and 25% as test data. According to results
Decision Tree Algorithm proves to give most accurate results and gave an accuracy of 94.4%.
The Gradient Boost Algorithm gave an accuracy of 87.9% and the Random Forest Algorithm
gave an accuracy of 92.4%. The proposed framework performs analysis with a high and
satisfactory fault-tolerant accuracy. The system sends out warnings and alerts of an incoming
flood to the citizens and helps save the lives of civilians and if possible, the infrastructure
[24].

HAM communication technique is used here for early detection of flash flood. The term
HAM radio service or amateur radio means use of radio services for nonprofit and
noncommercial purpose. The amateur radio service is established by the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU). The word amateur refers to a man who works for radio
without any financial interest. Project has two parts, flood monitoring and controlling. For the
purpose of flood monitoring, sensors are used to get the data of humidity, temperature, water
level, rain gauge. These sensors are arranged in different zones. Data acquired through
sensors is then transmitted to ctrol unit through HAM communication. The receiver at control
unit is receiving the alert signal in voice bank through the speaker coming from the flood
forecast monitoring unit. Use of microwave radar sensors proved itself a better approach for
flash flood as well as long-term sea-level monitoring. In this technique flood alert is
communicated to general public as early as possible. Warning is also issued through speaker
[25].

Here flash flood forecasting system is developed. The Multi Criteria Analysis Model (MCA)
approach is used here. MCA is a combination of GIS, Hydrology and geomorphology
approaches. It proved to be a suitable approach for flash flood risk mapping. For preparing
flood risk map 8 different parameters were selected. System collects information through
sensors which are fixed on weather stations. System receives information about rainfall and
other meteorological parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, leaf wetness
through sensors and transmit that information to public through webpage, telephone, radio,
GSM. Weather Stations have solar operated batteries. Numerical forecast and weather data
are combined on website to produce forecast. The system generate flood warning 1 to 6 days
before. Study divided the flood probability into five levels. Level 5 indicates very high
probability of occurrence of flash flood and Level 1 indicates lowest risk of occurrence of
flash flood [26].
 21

Study presents a prototype Decision support system for early detection of flood. A
monitoring station having Sensor modules are used to estimate three factors, elevation of
river water level, temperature and humidity. Results of these sensor modules are then
processed by a datalogger and then these results are sent to master station via Global System
for Mobile Communications (GSM). Master station after analyzing these results is
responsible to announce flood forecast in that particular area. Master station also manages the
database of all the data provided by monitoring station. Data can be presented in the form of
graphs and tables to the users. Users can question master station through SMS. Data from
master station is duplicated on web page and showed to the users. System is accessible to the
public through a web site. System name is Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) [27].

The developed program has the capability of measuring drainage system capacity and
creating early warning of flood. Program is applied to 31 km 2 area in Shanghai. Nine
drainage systems are selected for pilot study. Drainage capacity of area is not enough to
handle heavy rainfall and because of flat and low terrain area is vulnerable to floods. The data
acquired included spatial geological data, rainfall measurements, and different variable
related to current drainage facility of the area. Satellite imagery is used for land use
classification here. SCADA satellite images used here. Some topographical parameters are
Obtained too. Rainfall data since 2010 is also obtained. Every drainage system has its own
rain gauge to measure rainfall. All data is stored in the database. System consists of four
components: a drainage facility GIS, off-line drainage network model, on-line real-time early
warning and forecasting system, and a web page which presents the results. A hydrological
and hydraulic model FloodWorks software was selected as the on-line real-time early
warning modeling software platform. Model also provide support for decision making.
Calculated results of models stored in db. Oracle DB is used. ArcGIS web publishing
technology is used to show the important information regarding flood e.g., condition of
pumping stations and flood monitoring points in the area. The results can be seen through
FloodWorks software interface or through Web system. Users can query through web system
regarding current flood condition [28].

In this paper a heavy rain fall event is simulated which was happen in Luwu, Sulawesi on 13
July 2020. The purpose behind is to identify the reasons for heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall
creates flash floods. The simulated event also created that flash flood in the area of Luwu.
Research finds that heavy rainfall in Luwu, Sulawesi was due to mesoscale convective
complex (MCC) and Sea Surface temperature (SST). We investigate the reasons behind these
 22

rainfall events. Different dynamic and physical processes are examined through convection-
permitting model. Model has the resolution of 1 Km. We experienced the circumstances with
Increased Sea surface temperature and repeat the experiment with low sea surface
temperature.

The simulations were carried out using the Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARWv4.2.1)
mesoscale model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),
USA. Study proves that warm SSTs (Sea Surface Temperature) over the Sea are the reason of
increasing water vapors and strengthened the convective systems over the ocean that
propagated south-westward around Luwu. The interaction between north-easterly, low-level,
humid airflow and the elevated terrain over Luwu led to the development of a stationary cold
pool at around 1 km latitude and helped to maintain the rainfall systems over both the
mainland and ocean. In the absence of enough remote sensing data, a real numerical case
study was a good choice to identify the reasons of flash flood moreover experimentation with
WRF model proves to be a good way to improve rainfall prediction product.

A real numerical case study was a suitable method to investigate physical and dynamic
processes that caused a flash-flood-producing heavy rainfall over Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia.
Furthermore, by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a 1 km spatial
resolution through an experiment scenario with updated SST as the model input, we expect to
provide an efficient method to improve the rainfall prediction product by adjusting the initial
data conditions [29].

Google’s operational flood forecasting system is developed to forecast riverine flood. System
can be divided in 4 components. Firstly, predicted data is tested then flood is forecasted, 3 rd
step is flood simulation modeling and lastly flood warning is delivered. Data validation and
forecasting is done with the help of machine learning algorithms while simulation modeling
is done with linear models and Long Short-Term Memory. Two models Thresholding and
Manifold models are used to calculate expected flood damage. Thresholding model calculate
flood level and manifold model is used to estimate flood depth and flood level too. System
works on the basis of water level in river. Past and present water stage data at target gauges
and some upstream gauges and hourly mean areal precipitation were used as the input to the
stage forecasting models. LSTM showed better results as compare to linear model. These
models were trained with training data of previous floods occurred between 2016 to 2020 and
then they are functionally tested on 233 different areas. Both models compute inundation
maps and manifold model using DEM data also gave forecast depth data. Thresholding model
 23

proves itself better than any hydraulic model and Manifold model. Alerts are distributed to
general public which include flood warning, stage of flood, flood map and depth of flood.
Alerts conveyed to the people through 3 ways, 1. On google search 2. Smartphones within the
area 3. Icons presented in Google maps. The system was running in the areas of India and
Bangladesh where there is flood threat during Monsoon season in 2021 [30].
 24

Table 1: A comparison of different techniques used for flood prediction

References Country Tool Name Gis Remote Meteorological Hydrological Topography Technique Visualization DSS Application Database
Techn sensing Information Information used Capabilities Limitations
ology Images for Users
[7] Perlis, Yes Yes Yes No Yes Analytic No No Flood Yes
Malaysi Network susceptibility
a Process assessment
[8] Jeddah, WMS, Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Identify and Yes
Saudi Hyfran analyze
Arabia factors
causing flood
[9] Ethiopia Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Multi No No Flood Yes
Criteria forecasting
Evaluation and risk
(MCE) mapping
[4] Spain Delft- Yes Yes - Yes Yes No Hydrologic Yes Yes Flood No
FEWS Satellite al and forecasting
(Flood Precipit hydraulic
Early ation model-
Warning based
System forecast
[10] Canada Decision Yes No Yes Yes Yes Artificial Yes Yes Flood Yes
Support for Neural foreseeing
Manageme Network and flood
nt of
control
Floods
(DESMOF)
[11] Pakistan IFAS No Yes - Yes Yes No Regionally No No Flood No
Satellite parameteriz forecasting,
Precipit ed attempt to
ation Integrated made flood
Flood damages
Analysis minimum
System
References Country Tool Name Gis Remote Meteorological Hydrological Topography Technique Visualization DSS Application Database
Techn sensing Information Information used Capabilities Limitations
ology Images for Users
[12] Rhine EFFS No No Yes Yes No Numerical Yes No Flood No
river (European weather Forecasting,
Europe Flood prediction generating
 25

Forecastin (NWP) warnings

g System)
[13] Banglad Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Ensembles Yes Yes Flood No
esh Satellite probabilisti forecasting
Precipit c flood and risk
ation) forecasting assessment
technique
[14] Indones No No Yes Yes Yes Use of db No Yes Predicting Yes
ia to predict flood
flood characteristic
characteris s
tics, grnn
[15] Denmar FLOODR Yes No Yes Yes No Quantitativ Yes Yes Flood Yes
k ELIEF e forecasting,
DSS Numerical identifying
weather uncertainty
modelling range
[16] Thailan Yes Yes Yes Yes No Planm, No No Predicting No
d planu Streamflow
for River
Basins
[17] Malaysi No No Yes Yes No Nonlinear No No Flood No
a Autoregressi forecasting
ve based on
Exogenous
river water
Model
(NARX),
level
Support
Vector
Machine
(SVM)
References Country Tool Name GIS Remote Meteorological Hydrological Topography Technique Visualization DSS Application Database
Techn sensing Information Information used Capabilities Limitations
ology Images for Users
[18] Kulmba Yes No No Yes No Resilient No No Prediction of Yes
ch in Backpropa maximum
German gation flood
y Neural inundation
Network extents
(ANN)
 26

[19] Vietna Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Chaid-rs- No No Spatial Yes
m bbo model prediction of
flash flood
[20] Canada Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Integrated No No Flood
(Satellit multi- forecasting
e satellite based on
retrievals for
precipit satellite
global
ation) precipitation
precipitation
measuremen products and
t (imerg) mapping
flood extent
[21] India Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Hydrologic No No Flood No
al and forecasting
hydraulic
modeling
[22] Korea Yes No Yes Yes No Artificial Yes Yes Providing Yes
neural spatially
network distributed
forecast,
Generating
flood control
strategies.
[23] China Yes No Yes Yes Yes Urban Yes Yes Simulate and Yes
flood forecast
simulation floods on the
model basis of real-
time
meteorologic
al situation
References Country Tool Name GIS Remote Meteorological Hydrological Topography Technique Visualization DSS Application Database
Techn sensing Information Information used Capabilities Limitations
ology Images for Users
[24] India Flood No Yes Yes Yes Yes Decision Yes No Forecasting Yes
Detection Satellite Land Tree flood
and Precipit surface machine
Warning ation model, learning
System terrain Algorithm
(FLoWS gradient.
[25] HAM No No Yes Yes No Sensors No No Flood No
Communi and radio Monitoring
 27

cation Communic and Control

System ation Unit
[26] Vietna EFFR Yes No Yes Yes Yes Hydrologic No No Generating Yes
m (Early al an early
warning modeling, warning
flash flood Multicriteri system for
risk) a analysis flash floods
(mca)
[27] Indones Flood No No Yes Yes No Flood Yes Yes Early Yes
ia Early detection detection of
Warning using a flooding
System data logger
(FEWS) based on
gsm.
[28] China Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Smart No No Risk Yes
water assessment
of the
drainage
system and
early
warning of
flooding risk

References Country Tool Name GIS Remote Meteorological Hydrological Topography Technique Visualization DSS Application Database
Techn sensing Information Information used Capabilities Limitations
ology Images for Users
[29] Indones Yes No Yes No No WRF- No No Investigating
ia ARW factors which
Mesoscale influenced
Model rainfall
associated
with flash
flood
[30] India Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Machine No No Flood stage Yes
and learning forecasting,
Banglad based inundation
esh models modeling and
LSTM alert
 28

Model distribution
Manifold
Model
Thresholdi
ng Model
 29

4. Data Sets used in this research

Table 2: Data Layers used in this research

Data Data Type, Information Source Web link

set Classification Scale, extracted
N0.
Resolution

1 Topography Map 1:50,000 Digital Elevation Geological Survey of https://www.google.com/

Model (Terrain and Pakistan maps
Slope)
www.gsp.gov.pk

2 Meteorological mm/hour Rainfall hourly, Pakistan www.pmd.gov.pk

Data Max and Min Meteorological
Temperature daily, Department,
Average Humidity
Daily, Wind Speed
and Direction 6
hourly

3 Hydrological Water level in 1. Pakistan Water and http://www.wapda.gov.pk/

Data reservoirs Power Development http://www.pakirsa.gov.pk/
Authority
2. Indus River
System Authority
( IRSA )

4 Landsat 7 30m/band Land use maps, United States www.usgs.gov

Enhanced mapping of urban Geological Survey
Thematic areas
Mapper (ETM+)
sensor

5 Landsat 7, 30m/band Historical flooded United States www.usgs.gov

Landsat 8 areas Geological Survey

6 Published Analysis of causes Internet, Books,

of flood and Charts
Work
prediction methods.
 30

Here is a brief over view of datasets and their sources which we will use in our research. Data
layers are identified after a thorough literature review. Data sets used in this research were
collected from extremely reliable sources, like government observation stations and already
published literature and satellite imageries.

Remote sensing:

Satellite image will be used to explore the land use/land cover changes over the period of
time and to extract water bodies in images. The Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 satellite images are
chosen for our research since the spatial resolution capability of these sensors are 30 m.
Images will be analyzed in ArcGIS software to extract the maximum extent of the historical
flood from images of the study area.

Topographic map:

Second data-sets used in the current study are the topographical map with a scale of 1:50,000
it will be used to produce the digital elevation model (DEM). That will help in understanding
elevation and slope of study area. 1:50,000 scale topographic map can be obtained from
google maps or Department of Geological Survey of Pakistan.

Geographical Information System:

The flood influencing factors will be integrated in GIS. Analysis will be done by using GIS
tool to generate the flood susceptible zones. GIS investigations prove that land use changes
have a direct relationship with vulnerability of flood [2]. ArcGIS software also helps in
identifying variations in urban settlements in satellite images over different period of time. It
also indicates flood susceptible zones by preparing inundation maps.

Meteorological Details:

In this dataset we have forecasted and historical records of the meteorological data and that is
rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction. Records are obtained from Pakistan
Meteorological Department.
 31

Hydrological Data:

Hydrological data will be obtained from Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority.
Knowledge of current water level in dams, rivers, lakes and other water reservoirs will help in
modeling our prediction.

Published work:

Help will be taken from already published experts’ work. Earlier published work will provide
guidelines throughout our research.

5. Problem Statement

To investigate a Spatial Decision Support System for a timely flood prediction based on the
longitudinal data received through Remote Sensing.

6. Methodology

Remote sensing offers an ongoing and regular source of information about the Earth.
Whereas geographic information systems (GIS) provide a mechanism for management of all
of this data. The blend of the two systems has provided an opportunity to perform large scale
studies of Earth's surface.

GIS applications permit the storage, management and analysis of large volumes of spatial
data which have their particular geographic features. It allows many operations that can be
performed on the images acquired through Remote Sensing. Landsat 7 and 8 images of the
particular areas are used. we have collected our data through a series of repeated observations
of the same area over some extended time frame. Landsat images of different time spans are
used to identify changes in land use. Besides, satellite imageries are also used to view areas
 32

flooded in past. Longitudinal or panel data help trace out land use changes, changes in hydro-
meteorological behavior and how flood respond to these changes over the period of time.

Different time spans data help us better to understand flood reasons. SDSS will provide better
decisions because of longitudinal data.

Geographic information system is most popular and workable way to ensemble satellite or
aircraft imageries, maps and topographical and geological characteristics of a particular area
on earth. This combination is of great use in hazard assessment.

Here meteorological forecast is also treated as an input for flood forecasting DSS too. Floods
are mainly triggered by the occurrence of intense monsoonal rainfall, which ranges between
2000 to 3000 mm annually. The rainfall dataset is obtained directly from meteorological
department. That records would be statistically analyzed. The amount of rainfall recorded
over a period of ten years from 2011 to 2020 was used in this research. Inflow forecasting of
any water reservoir is fundamental to flood management too. This forecast depends on hydro-
meteorological forecast on short or long terms basis. The advance time of forecast (or lead
time) is crucial in forecasting. In general, shorter time forecast are more reliable. A digital
elevation model of the particular city/area and its waterways, topographic map of the area are
also main input elements for our DSS.

Proposed research will present a Spatial Decision Support System which will give its results
on the basis of satellite image analysis along with other factors.

DSS performs the flood prediction based on the input given to it. Hydrological analysis,
geological data of a particular area + topography + Remote sensing imageries all integrated to
an approach to permit decision support system to help in assessing and mapping current and
future flood incidences and generate decisions. Weights would be assigned to DSS decisions.
DSS would be a mathematical model, used to calculate the relative weights of the various
flood influencing factors. The ArcGIS spatial analyst tools were used in generating flood
susceptible zones.

The flood susceptibility levels of the different locations within the study area were divided
into five classes: hardly susceptible to flooding (1); very little susceptibility to flooding (2);
moderately susceptible to flooding (3); highly susceptible to flooding (4); and very highly
susceptible to flooding (5).
33
 34

Fig 2: Flow of different methodologies applied in this Research.

 35

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hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation. The World Bank (2012).
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 36

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