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The contribution of the frequency ratio model and the prediction rate for the
analysis of landslide risk in the Tizi N’tichka area on the national road (RN9)
linking Marrakech and...

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 Catena 232 (2023) 107464

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Catena
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/catena

The contribution of the frequency ratio model and the prediction rate for
the analysis of landslide risk in the Tizi N’tichka area on the national road
(RN9) linking Marrakech and Ouarzazate
Bammou Youssef a, Ismail Bouskri b, Benzougagh Brahim c, Shuraik Kader d, e, *,
Igmoullan Brahim a, Bensaid Abdelkrim f, Velibor Spalević g
a
Department of Geology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Laboratory of Geo-Resources, Geo-Environment and Civil Engineering (L3G), Cadi Ayyad University,
Morocco
b
2GBEI, Polydisciplinary Faculty of Taroudant, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco
c
Geophysics and Natural Hazards Laboratory, Department of Geomorphology and Geomatics, Scientific Institute, Mohammed V, University in Rabat, Avenue Ibn
Battouta, Agdal, P.B 703, 10106 Rabat-City, Morocco
d
School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia
e
Green Infrastructure Research Labs (GIRLS), Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD 4215, Australia
f
Department of Geography, Laboratory Center of Studies for the Development of Territories and the Environment (CEDETE), University of Orléans, UFR LLSH, France
g
Biotechnical Faculty, University of Montenegro, Podgorica 81000, Montenegro

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Road infrastructure is vital for economic development, connecting various locations. However, in Morocco,
Road infrastructure landslides pose recurring challenges to road projects due to factors like lithology, climate, rift structures, and
Susceptibility mapping high altitudes in the High Atlas Mountains. Developing susceptibility maps for landslides is crucial to anticipate
Relative frequency
and take appropriate actions. National Road Number 9, particularly the Tizi N’tichka region in the High Atlas,
Prediction rate
experiences significant landslide issues. This study used frequency ratio (RF) and prediction rate (PR) techniques
to map landslide susceptibility along this road section connecting Marrakech and Ouarzazate. By analyzing
thirteen factors, including elevation, curvature, precipitation, slope, and land use, a landslide sensitivity index
(LSI) was created. A landslide inventory of 214 locations was prepared, with 70% (150 events) used for model
training and 30% (64 events) for validation. The resulting sensitivity map classified areas into five categories of
landslide susceptibility. The model’s effectiveness was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) curve technique, yielding an AUC value of 92.3% during validation. The findings demonstrate the efficacy
of RF and PR methods in landslide susceptibility mapping. It helps identify high-risk areas along National Road
Number 9 in the Tizi N’tichka region, enabling proactive measures for mitigating landslide impacts on road
infrastructure. These outcomes serve as a foundational basis for conducting further research and verifying the
performance of alternative methods such as the susceptibility index model (SII), the inventory validation (IV)
model, and the weight of evidence (WoE) model Overall, this research contributes to better anticipation and
management of landslides, ensuring the reliability and safety of road networks in the studied region and beyond
the geographical boundaries.

1. Introduction ReliefWeb, 2021). Landslides are categorising as most detrimental nat­

ural disasters because of their first-rate injury to environments,
According to the Global Natural Disaster Assessment Report 2021, commonly lead to harm to agricultural land, losses of soil sources, and
natural disasters cause thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in the deconstruction of infrastructure. A landslide is the motion of soil,
damage (2020 Global Natural Disaster Assessment Report - China | particles, or a mass of rock alongside a slope, According to Cruden

* Corresponding author at: Cities Research Institute, School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia.
E-mail addresses: youssef.bammou@ced.uca.ma (B. Youssef), i.bouskri@managemgroup.com (I. Bouskri), brahim.benzougagh@is.um5.ac.ma (B. Brahim),
shuraik.mohamedabdulkader@griffithuni.edu.au, shuraik10@gmail.com, s.mohamedabdulkader@griffith.edu.au (S. Kader), igmoullan@gmail.com (I. Brahim),
abdelkrim.bensaid@univ-orleans.fr (B. Abdelkrim), velibor.spalevic@gmail.com (V. Spalević).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2023.107464
Received 12 June 2023; Received in revised form 14 August 2023; Accepted 16 August 2023
Available online 20 August 2023
0341-8162/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
B. Youssef et al.
(Cruden, 1991). Slope instability is the major reason that triggers a
landslide. This instability can be induced by distinctive elements such as
morphological aspects, the geological nature of the facies, and quite a
few anthropogenic factors.
Landslides may adversely affect the typical patterns of drainage in
soil, causing salts to accumulate in the soil (Ljavić et al., 2023). A
landslide results in the accumulation of different materials in the soil
that contain different salinity levels compared with the original soil,
which could lead to the increase and decrease of the salinity magnitudes
(S. A. Kader et al., 2022). The accumulation of salts in the soil leads to
the disruption of stormwater retention by blocking the capillary actions,
preventing the overhead salts from getting flushed out (S. Kader et al.,
2023). The clogging of stormwater in soils will damage the ability of
capturing ammonia and nitrogen due to the disruption of soil structure
(S. Kader et al., 2022; Sharma & Malaviya, 2021). Prolonged subjuga­
tion of such affects would lead to the loss of soil fertility in terms of
nutrient availability for the plant intake. In other scenarios, if the
landslip material is formed of low-salt rocks or sediments, it might dilute
the inherent salts in soils, leading to a drop in soil salinity (Arakawa
et al., 2021; S. Kader et al., 2022). These circumstances deliver the
alarming information that the landslides directly affect agricultural in­
dustry by producing various effects on the salinity of the soil (Shuraik
and Lizny, 2022) that depend on factors like soil type, location, and the
intensity of the landslide.
Landslides are becoming a significant threat to the safety of the
public as well as the infrastructure of steep terrain landmasses with
intense rainfall, such as Tizi N’tichka, Morocco. The area was located
within the RN9 national road that links Marrakech and Ouarzazate.
Statistical records suggest that the area is highly prone to landslides.
These scenarios induce the necessity to formulate a comprehensive
model to assess the risks and to propose a predictive mechanism for
mitigating the associated risks of landslides in Tizi N’tichka.
Many studies have examined how to forecast soil instability based on
two groups of causal factors: predisposition and triggers. The concept of
susceptibility determines the likelihood of a landslide occurring in
space. It evolved with the development of algorithms and tools for
analysing spatial information, according to research (Paudel et al., 2016;
Guzzetti et al., 1999; Thiery et al., 2007; Fell et al., 2008). Moreover, a
variety of methods and procedures have been employed to define and
model landslide susceptibility, with some findings of the research indi­
cating that this type of model is still incompatible with huge areas
(Pourghasemi & Rahmati, 2018; Zhao & Chen, 2020). Also, these models
show anomalies that are directly related to the weights of the variables
that affected the landslide phenomenon. Several varieties of so-called
statistical techniques have also been made available; these models ask
for the employment of a fictitious structural model and, as a result, place
a strong emphasis on parameterisation, which is frequently utilised in
geological hazard assessments. This strategy, however, has a number of
shortcomings and is not very practical. The necessity of underlying hy­
potheses and statistical interdependence of quantities, in particular, the
weight of evidence (WoE), entropy, certainty factor (CF), and Dempster-
Shafer theory (Zhao & Chen, 2020).
A systematic approach to landslide hazard analysis was first suc­
cessfully implemented on Penang Island, Malaysia (Pradhan & Lee,
2010) by using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and remote
sensing data with the incorporation of landslide locations and a GIS
database consists of soil types, vegetation, geology and topography.
According to the findings, the logistic regression model was exhibited
better outcomes ue to its higher accuracy in prediction. The study sug­
gested that the topographic factor is most influential and fault lines
contribute the least for the landslide triggering. By integrating various
methods including geodetic measurements, GIS spatial analysis, UAV
monitoring, geotechnical evaluation and the ground-penetrating radar
examinations, studies by (Sestras et al., 2022) indicated a comprehen­
sive and long-term approach for landslide assessments. The study dis­
cusses the presence of deep-seated slope instability in the study area,
2
Catena 232 (2023) 107464
leading to minor geotechnical rotation of retaining walls and noticeable
alterations in soil and rock layers. The successful implementation of
both studies provided a promising scope for the application of frequency
models to address the challenges of landslide-prone regions by inte­
grating topographic features and GIS tools.
Maps showing landslide susceptibility indicate locations with high
and low risk, and they can be utilised to take precautions before harm is
done (Tien Bui et al., 2014). Several studies have been conducted by
focusing to determine the probability of slope collapse and landslide
susceptibility by using novel methods such as with Decision trees (H.
Hong et al, 2018), by integrating field investigation with the spatio-
temporal remote sensing data (Youssef et al., 2015) and with the use
of frequency ratio, statistical index, and weights-of-evidence models
(Regmi et al., 2014a; Bui et al., 2011).
The frequency ratio model is used to compute the risk of landslides
through statistical analysis studies to determine the linkage between
landslides and the corresponding factors like precipitation, soil condi­
tion, and topography. The spatial distribution of landslide frequencies
was determined, and the frequency ratio model will identify the areas
with high susceptibility to landslides. This analysis will help to designate
the required mitigation strategies.
The prediction rate is a tool that estimates the probability of future
landslides by using the outcomes of previous results and their associated
rationales. It is an effective method for outsourcing the comprehensive
information required to plan and make decisions related to landslide risk
mitigation and management. Because it incorporates all the data related
to slope angle, runoff, and geology.
The objective of this research is to explore the efficiency of using the
frequency ratio model and prediction rate to analyse the landslide sus­
ceptibility of Tizi N’tichka on the RN9 national road by distinguishing
the strengths and weaknesses and exploring their potential for influ­
encing successful risk reduction measures. In this work, the first thor­
ough mapping of landslide susceptibility along a segment of National
Route Number 9 is reported using relative frequency (RF) and prediction
rate (PR). The location is a hilly route that has already seen multiple
landslides. To our knowledge, in terms of study of the existing scientific
literature and the study of state-of-the-art technologies, no research in
this area of Morocco or in the region surrounded by Atlas Mountains, has
ever been done. Hence, determining the state of the slopes and identi­
fying regions with a high likelihood of landslides were crucial jobs. The
study presents a very comprehensive approach by using the relative
frequency and prediction rate techniques to map landslide susceptibil­
ity, resulting in a landslide sensitivity index (LSI) and a sensitivity map.
The evaluation of the model’s effectiveness and the identification of
high-risk areas along the National Road Number 9 provide valuable
insights for the proactive measures to mitigate landslide impacts on toad
infrastructure. By improving anticipation and management of land­
slides, this research contributes to the reliability and safety of road
networks, not only in the studied region but also beyond the
geographical boundaries.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The Moroccan High Atlas region of Tichka has peaks that can soar to
a height of 2260 m. Without enough consideration for environmental
factors, the development of the national road number 9 that passes
through the Tichka region and connects Marrakech with Ouarzazate
started in 1924. These kinds of road constructions typically alter the
local environment and landscape, and they have a substantial impact on
slope stability, drainage, erosion, and the delivery of sediment to the
drainage system (Dahal et al., 2006; Petley et al., 2007). The fact that a
large portion of this road runs along riverbanks only amplifies the ef­
fects. Studies on the viability of building an 11 km tunnel through the
Atlas Mountains, which would have cut the distance between
B. Youssef et al.
Ouarzazate and Marrakech by 25 km and saved drivers 40 min of travel
time, were done in 1974. Further research was conducted in 1996, 2002,
and 2004.
The national road (RN9) is situated in the Tensift basin (R’dat sub-
basin) and spans a distance of 192.60 km from Marrakech (31.630◦ ,
− 8.008◦ ) to Ouarzazate (35.759◦ , − 5.834◦ ). The research location,
which is 64 km2 in size and was chosen based on lineaments in a buffer
zone of 1 to 2 km, is situated 96 km southeast of Marrakech in the High
Atlas at 2260 m height near the Tichka Pass. The national road (RN9)
has a length of 43.44 km and is distinguished by its impassable reliefs
and extremely challenging geometrical features. Le massif du M’Goun
and the massif du Toubkal are two fundamentally different mountain
ranges that are divided by it. Climate-wise, the study area is charac­
terised by average monthly temperatures that range between 12.3 and
28.2 ◦ C and average annual precipitation amounts of 600 to 800 mm.
The climatic circumstances and morphological makeup of the basin
encourage the growth of a heterogeneous plant cover that is mostly
made up of steppe plants, herbaceous plants, and arboreal plants with
slender leaves.
According to a geological analysis of the research region taken from
Demnat and Telouat’s geological map 1/200000 described by (Fig. 1),
the bulk of the national road number 9′s corridor is largely on Ordovi­
cian soil, with two main formations, namely green sandstone and shale.
Apart from the southern zone, which is characterised by rhyolite for­
mations, doleritic basalts of Permo-Triassic age, formations of Lower
Lias Age, Red Limestone of the Lower Cenomanian, and Phosphate
Fig. 1. Geographic setting of the study area and a panoramic view of a portion
of National Road 9 (RN9).
3
Catena 232 (2023) 107464
Sandstones of Mastrichtian Lutetian (Fig. 2). The research region is
characterised by a number of instabilities in the geomechanical setting
(e.g., boulder pullouts, landslides, road deformations or ruptures,
pushing of friable rocks, etc.) (Fig. 3).
2.2. Data collection
This investigation exposed landslide susceptibility mapping based on
several data sources and assessed the FR and PR methodologies. In this
study, landslide incidents were gathered using a reliable database
created from field and historical data. Also, the USGS Earth Explorer was
downloaded with Sentinel-2 satellite photos, which offer a high reso­
lution of 10 m. To extract the slope units of the research region, produce
the relief variables, and then retrieve the geological fasciae and faults
from the scanned geological map of Demnat and Telout at 1:200,000
scale, a digital elevation model (DEM) with a spatial resolution of 12.5 m
using ALOS PALSAR was used. Roads, faults, and water bodies have all
been converted to raster format files.
2.3. Inventories and preparation of landslide conditioning factors
The creation of landslide inventory maps (Fig. 1) necessitates both a
field investigation and the analysis of satellite images. Even if the cir­
cumstances for landslides are the same as they were in the past, several
factors that impact landslides are considered while evaluating data from
landslide inventories. Finally, a landslide inventory map, coupled with
landslide conditioning variables, is necessary to build a landslide sus­
ceptibility map.
Seventy percent of the 214 reported landslides are used for model
training, while thirty percent are used for model validation. By
comparing the current landslide sites to the generated landslide
vulnerability map, a validation interaction was carried out.
All currently used methods for determining landslide susceptibility
are predicated on the idea that similar geological, geomorphological,
climatic, and hydrogeological conditions that have caused and continue
to cause landslides in the past and present are more likely to result in
landslides in the future (I. Yang et al., 2016; Kanungo et al., 2009). As a
result, the quantitative correlations between landslide occurrences and
conditioning variables are determined using the landslide inventory.
The selection of landslide-conditioning parameters is crucial for the
creation of an accurate forecast model. The research area gathers the
factors associated to landslide distribution, where each element impacts
the incidence of landslides, following the preceding procedures (field
visits, field data, surveys, and historical data), (Ghorbanzadeh &
Blaschke, 2019; He et al., 2019; Sevgen et al., 2019; Xiao et al., 2019).
The chosen parametres are often divided into topographic, geological,
environmental, and anthropogenic categories in landslide susceptibility
modelling. Nonetheless, the broad guidelines for choosing them are not
in conflict. In order to determine landslide susceptibility, LSFs were
chosen from the most often cited variables in the literature (W. Yang
et al., 2019; Kanungo et al., 2009; Pourghasemi et al., 2012; Kornejady
et al., 2018; Chen et al., 2019; Fallah-Zazuli et al., 2019; Dao et al.,
2020).
Four primary phases make up a study of landslide susceptibility:
gathering and building a geographical database of landslides and con­
ditioning variables; determining the susceptibility of landslides utilising
the link between landslides and conditioning factors; and lastly vali­
dating the results (Guzzetti et al., 1999). In this study, two methods were
used to prepare the landslide inventory. The first method involved the
interpretation of satellite images, specifically Sentinel images at a res­
olution of 10 m and high-resolution images accessible in Google Earth
Pro, which represents a convenient database of high resolution historical
images that can reveal many landslides and field verification. According
to published research, Google Earth images can be a trustworthy source
for creating landslide inventories and, consequently, susceptibility maps
in remote places (Conoscenti et al., 2016; Costanzo et al., 2012). The
B. Youssef et al.
Fig. 2. Geological map of the study area and its surroundings (extracted from the geological map 1/200000 of Demnat and Telouat).
majority of the Google Earth-digitised polygons were subsequently field-
verified (Fig. 3). Landslide pixels were given a value of 1 on the landslide
inventory map, whereas pixels outside of landslide polygons, or pixels
that are not landslides, were given a value of 0. The study employed a
total of thirteen conditioning components that were gathered from
diverse sources. ArcGIS 10.3 was used for all processing.
A resolution of 12.5 m of DEM extracted from the Alaska Satellite
Facility (ASF) database and the other thematic maps derived or elabo­
rated from DEM, to show a separation of the spatial distribution of the
landslide risk information of 12.5 and logically it should be different
with a separation of 30 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM).
Six conditioning factors, including altitude, including relief, slope,
aspect, curvature, topographic moisture index (TWI), stream power
index (SPI), and aspect, were used with the DEM (Fig. 4). In several
studies, all of these conditioning elements have been employed and have
been shown to be crucial in predicting landslide vulnerability (H. Hong
et al., 2018; Chen et al., 2017; Pham et al., 2017; I. Yang et al., 2016;
Tien Bui et al., 2014; Althuwaynee et al., 2014; Regmi et al., 2014b).
The geology, including the sorts of faults that impact the research
region and the nature of the fasciae, was determined using a geological
map of Demnat and Telouat at a scale of 1:200,000 described by (Fig. 2).
The Google Earth high resolution image was used to categorise the
five classes and the Sentinel image from November 18, 2020, was used
to derive the land use classes based on an unsupervised ISO clustering
method. The same image was also used to derive the Normalised Dif­
ference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to match the vegetation in these
classes.
Whereas highways are man-made cuts and fills that induce slope
instability, rivers in a watershed are the consequence of a long-term
4
Catena 232 (2023) 107464
interplay between geological features, topography, and slope under
the impact of water (Bui et al., 2011). The distance between highways
and rivers was estimated using the Euclidean distance due to their
vulnerability to slope instability.
One of the primary natural causes of landslides is precipitation. The
High Atlas region, where Tizi N’Tichka is found, is known for its heavy
and erratic precipitation. The map of average annual precipitation in
(mm) was created using interpolation of observation data obtained from
12 climate stations (1984–2019) operated by the ABHT during a 35-year
period.
2.4. Modelling and statistical analysis
As much as data possible on recent and historical landslides were
gathered to create a landslide inventory and to determine every condi­
tioning element. The data from this inventory was then randomly sub­
divided into training and test data, with approximately 70% used for
model training and the remaining 30% used to assess the accuracy and
predictive quality of the models developed. Fig. 5 shows the method­
ology used in the study. Planners and decision-makers might utilise the
information and findings to create plans for monitoring landslide risks
and carrying out maintenance and mitigation actions along the route
stretch.
Based on the contribution of the primary elements and their inter­
relationship, it is possible to assess the susceptibility of a location to
landslides. In recent years, landslide research has increasingly incor­
porated machine learning techniques. Nevertheless, these techniques
need a lot of data to train on in order to be more accurate. Probabilistic
models based on the frequency and ratio of landslides in various
B. Youssef et al.
Fig. 3. Illustration of some types of anomalies at Tizi N’Tichka (a, b) Google Earth Pro satellite images taken in 2022 (c, d, e) field verifications taken in 2023.
components were employed due to the absence of data.
Because of its simplicity, the frequency ratio (FR) is one of the most
often employed probabilistic models in landslide susceptibility in­
vestigations (I. Yang et al., 2016; Kayastha, 2015; Regmi et al., 2014a;
Choi et al., 2012; Yilmaz, 2009; Lee & Sambath, 2006). In addition to
being the ratio of the probability of landslides occurring vs not occurring
for a particular characteristic, FR is defined as the region where land­
slides occurred in relation to the entire research area (Bonham-Carter,
1994; Lee & Sambath, 2006; Pradhan & Lee, 2010). It may be analyti­
cally described as follows and is based on the observed link between
geographical distribution and landslide triggering factors:
∑
Npix (LX i )/ mi=1 Npix (LX i )
FR = ∑ (1)
Npix (Xj )/ nj=1 Npix (Xj )
where FR is the frequency ratio of class i of parameter j. Npix (LXi ) is the
number of pixels with landslides within class i of parameter variable X.
Npix (Xj ) is the number of pixels within parameter variable Xj. m is the
number of classes in the parameter variable Xi, and n is the number of
parameters in the study area (Regmi et al., 2014).
The RFs were then standardized to the probability value range [0, 1]
as relative frequency in a subsequent stage (RF). Equation (2) was used
to get the RF for each class:
FRij
RF = ∑m
i=1 FRij
The RF frequency still has the drawback of treating all conditioning
elements equally after equalization. The prediction rate (PR) was
generated for the evaluation of each conditioning component using the
Catena 232 (2023) 107464
training data set to address this drawback and account for the in­
terdependencies between the independent variables (3):
(RFmax − RF min )
PR = (3)
(RFmax − RF min )min
The PR of each component and the RF of each class were then added
together to create the landslide susceptibility index (LSI), as shown
below:
∑
LSI = (PR*RF) (4)
A map of landslide susceptibility was created using these LSI values.
The accuracy and dependability of the produced map are crucial. It
should be emphasized that just the training data set was used by the LSI,
leaving the remaining 30% for validation.
This study made extensive use of the Receiver Operating Charac­
teristic (ROC) curve approach to assess the efficacy and accuracy of a
landslide susceptibility model (Chen et al., 2017; Tien Bui et al., 2016;
Althuwaynee et al., 2014; Pourghasemi et al., 2012). A dynamic change
in the categorisation results is shown by the sensitivity or specificity
curve. The area under the curve (AUC), which is the region between the
horizontal axis and the ROC curve, is used to evaluate the ROC curve
(Zhang et al., 2016). AUC values range from 0.5 to 1, and anything
higher than 0.5 indicates that the model is good (Ja, 1988).The accuracy
(2) of the forecast increases with the area under the curve’s percentage, or
with the steepness of the curve’s slope. An excellent model with an AUC
value of 0.9 shows that 90% of landslides happen in 10% of the most
vulnerable places (Lee & Talib, 2005).
5
B. Youssef et al. Catena 232 (2023) 107464

Fig. 4. Thematic maps of the study area: from left to right, first row: Elevation, Curvature, TWI and Mean Annual Precipitation. second row: Slope, Aspect, NDVI and
SPI. third row: Land use, Distance to rivers, Distance to roads and Distance to faults. Fourth row: Lithology.

6
B. Youssef et al.
Fig. 5. Flowchart of the developed methodology.
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of the factors influencing landslides
The FR and PR for all classes were obtained following the prepara­
tion of all conditioning components using the 70% training dataset. The
proportion of landslides and domains, FR, RF, and PR for each class and
factor are displayed in Table 1. FR is frequently used in landslide sus­
ceptibility research. However, in this instance, standardisation between
0 and 1 was applied to allow for better comparison and comprehension
of the impact on the LSI computation. Like this, the RP offers a weighting
of the variables affecting the landslide susceptibility index.
In terms of elevation factor, the area between 2200 and 2510 m has a
high value of RF, suggesting that there is a chance of landslides in this
area and that landslides have happened more frequently there in the
past. The value is greater for slopes between 26 and 70◦ . Most case
studies conducted globally have revealed that higher relief and slope
angles are significant contributors to landslides (Y. Hong et al., 2007).
Flat surfaces also displayed a distribution of landslides in the research,
which is caused by the foot of the landslide or collected regions (Sestras
et al., 2022). Aspect classes have a broad range of landslide occurrences.
The larger distribution of landslides on flat curves is explained by the
same factor. Similarly, landslides occurred more frequently on concave
slopes than on convex ones. Concave slopes induce water to concentrate
at the lower ends, but convex slopes are more stable since flows are
equally scattered (Ghimire & Timalsina, 2020).
TWI is the correlation between the amount of water that collects in a
specific area and the inclination of the stream’s gravitational pull (Beven
& Kirkby, 1979; Benzougagh et al., 2020). The TWI demonstrated a
correlation with landslide susceptibility in our situation as well, with a
larger distribution of landslides having a TWI over 14. The SPI also
demonstrated a progressive rise in the distribution of landslides with a
7
Catena 232 (2023) 107464
rising SPI value, indicating that the danger of slope collapse increases
with location-specific erosive power.
The forest area is more stable when the NDVI is high. Values are
displayed in the RF of NDVI greater than 0.3. Whereas the southern
portion of the study region exhibits stability to sliding when the NDVI
value is less than 0.2; this is explained by outcrops of very hard
basement.
Much of the research region is covered by Acadian and Ordivician
shales, according to Fig. 2′s depiction of its facies (C). The heterogeneous
formations of red calcium with salt, gypsum at the base of Lias, and the
formations of sandstones and conglomerates at Stephano-Trias contain
the highest concentration of landslide danger.
In the R’dat watershed, the river system represents a crucial
geomorphological component. Due to the simplicity of construction and
the evacuation of slope cuts, particularly in the north of the study area,
most of the roads in Tensift are built along the banks of the rivers. The
elevated danger in the top section may be caused by this.
Precipitation naturally causes landslides. The yearly average rainfall
rises as the road rises, and the RF indicates that rainfall above 310 mm
has a greater relative frequency of landslide occurrence. Given that our
region is known for having numerous storm periods, it is probable that
landslides will occur more frequently if the precipitation is higher than
this figure in some areas (Sestraș et al., 2019). Finally, from a structural
perspective, there is a link between the RF values and the faults that
cross the road; the regions that are less than 500 m away from the faults
have high RF values.
3.2. Landslide susceptibility map and validation
A crucial stage of landslide susceptibility modelling is determining
the relationship between past landslides and their underlying causes.
This process is used to choose the right elements. The results of PR,
B. Youssef et al. Catena 232 (2023) 107464

Table 1
Frequency ratio (FR), relative frequency (RF) of each class and prediction rate (PR) of each conditioning factor.
Factor Class Number of Percentage of Number Percentage of Frequency RF RF PR
pixels in domain (PD) oflandslide landslide (PL) Ratio (FR) (non%)
class pixels

Elevation < 1000 2 0,003 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000

1000–1400 14,843 21,275 85,000 39,352 1,850 0,225 22,534
1400–1800 13,284 19,041 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
1800–2200 38,690 55,457 79,000 36,574 0,660 0,080 8,035
2200–2510 2947 4,224 52,000 24,074 5,699 0,694 69,432
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 8,208 1 100 3,754
Curvature Concave 34,051 48,807 75,000 34,722 0,711 0,196 19,558
Flat 3429 4,915 18,000 8,333 1,695 0,466 46,613
Convexe 32,286 46,278 123,000 56,944 1,230 0,338 33,829
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,637 1 100 1,463
Slope <7 5862 8,402 7,000 3,241 0,386 0,082 8,191
42,552 16,608 23,805 53,000 24,537 1,031 0,219 21,890
16–26 16,095 23,070 46,000 21,296 0,923 0,196 19,604
26–35 25,546 36,617 88,000 40,741 1,113 0,236 23,629
35–70 5655 8,106 22,000 10,185 1,257 0,267 26,686
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 4,709 1 100 1,000
LULC Trees 8429 12,082 5,000 2,315 0,192 0,059 5,852
Built Area 182 0,261 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
Crops 444 0,636 1,000 0,463 0,727 0,222 22,221
Rangeland 6947 9,958 27,000 12,500 1,255 0,383 38,345
Bare ground 53,764 77,063 183,000 84,722 1,099 0,336 33,582
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,274 1 100 2,073
Precipitation <306 1 0,001 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
306–308 3723 5,336 12,000 5,556 1,041 0,312 31,203
308–310 53,491 76,672 150,000 69,444 0,906 0,271 27,147
>310 12,551 17,990 54,000 25,000 1,390 0,417 41,651
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,336 1 100 2,252
NDVI <0.02 803 1,151 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
0.02–0.15 46,510 66,666 155,000 71,759 1,076 0,293 29,320
0.15–0.2 6588 9,443 44,000 20,370 2,157 0,588 58,758
0.2–0.3 12,545 17,982 17,000 7,870 0,438 0,119 11,922
>0.3 3320 4,759 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,671 1 100 3,177
Distance < 300 21,364 30,622 55,000 25,463 0,832 0,159 15,948
to river 300–400 5612 8,044 13,000 6,019 0,748 0,143 14,350
400–500 5798 8,311 14,000 6,481 0,780 0,150 14,958
500–600 5411 7,756 30,000 13,889 1,791 0,343 34,345
> 600 31,581 45,267 104,000 48,148 1,064 0,204 20,400
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 5,214 1 100 1,081
Distance <100 21,305 30,538 77,000 35,648 1,167 0,183 18,312
to road 100–200 5671 8,129 35,000 16,204 1,993 0,313 31,271
200–300 5798 8,311 19,000 8,796 1,058 0,166 16,604
300–400 5411 7,756 26,000 12,037 1,552 0,243 24,346
> 400 31,581 45,267 59,000 27,315 0,603 0,095 9,466
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 6,375 1 100 1,179
Distance <500 18,748 26,873 64,000 29,630 1,103 0,304 30,377
to faults 500–600 2938 4,211 3,000 1,389 0,330 0,091 9,086
600–700 2838 4,068 6,000 2,778 0,683 0,188 18,813
700–800 2835 4,064 4,000 1,852 0,456 0,126 12,555
>800 42,407 60,785 139,000 64,352 1,059 0,292 29,168
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,630 1 100 1,151
SPI <-4 20,003 28,672 102,000 47,222 1,647 0,426 42,626
− 4–1 31,067 44,530 73,000 33,796 0,759 0,196 19,642
− 1–5 16,559 23,735 36,000 16,667 0,702 0,182 18,173
>5 2137 3,063 5,000 2,315 0,756 0,196 19,558
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 3,864 1 100 1,322
Aspect Flat 506 0,725 4,000 1,852 2,553 0,245 24,543
North 6459 9,258 10,000 4,630 0,500 0,048 4,807
Northeast 10,467 15,003 22,000 10,185 0,679 0,065 6,526
East 10,567 15,146 43,000 19,907 1,314 0,126 12,634
Southeast 9717 13,928 89,000 41,204 2,958 0,284 28,436
South 6483 9,292 26,000 12,037 1,295 0,125 12,451
Souathwest 5814 8,334 2,000 0,926 0,111 0,011 1,068
West 5911 8,473 7,000 3,241 0,382 0,037 3,677
Northwest 8638 12,381 8,000 3,704 0,299 0,029 2,875
North 5204 7,459 5,000 2,315 0,310 0,030 2,983
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 10,403 1 100 1,480
TWI <2 44,941 64,417 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
2–6 20,294 29,089 156,000 72,222 2,483 0,089 8,856
6–10 3043 4,362 49,000 22,685 5,201 0,186 18,551
10–14 1387 1,988 5,000 2,315 1,164 0,042 4,153
>14 101 0,145 6,000 2,778 19,188 0,684 68,440
(continued on next page)

8
B. Youssef et al. Catena 232 (2023) 107464

Table 1 (continued )
Factor Class Number of Percentage of Number Percentage of Frequency RF RF PR
pixels in domain (PD) oflandslide landslide (PL) Ratio (FR) (non%)
class pixels

Sum 69,766 100 216 100 28,036 1 100 3,701

Lithology Lower Cenomanian (Marls. 688 0,986 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
sandstones and red
conglomerates)
Doleritic basalts Permo-Trias 1217 1,744 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
Lower Lias (dolomitic levels) 2736 3,922 28,000 12,963 3,305 0,169 16,912
Algonkian (shales and 2111 3,026 18,000 8,333 2,754 0,141 14,091
sandstones)
Base of the Lias (red clay with 862 1,236 24,000 11,111 8,993 0,460 46,012
salt.
gypsum. calcareous
sandstone)
Cenomanian-Turonian 164 0,235 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
(limestones and m)
Gothlandian (Shale. 13,539 19,406 40,000 18,519 0,954 0,049 4,882
sandstone. lamellibranch
limestone)
Stephano-Trias 6280 9,002 4,000 1,852 0,206 0,011 1,053
(conglomerates. sandstones
and red clays)
Ordovician (shales) 32,226 46,192 62,000 28,704 0,621 0,032 3,179
Acadian (Tislitt Shists) 3134 4,492 4,000 1,852 0,412 0,021 2,109
Rhyolite 6067 8,696 35,000 16,204 1,863 0,095 9,534
Acadian (Pardoxides vet 742 1,064 1,000 0,463 0,435 0,022 2,227
shale.
beginning with a pink
lumellic limestone)
Sum 69,766 100 216 100 19,545 1 100 2,488

Table 1 and Fig. 6(b) in the current study, and with 13 elements taken
into account as landslide motivators, demonstrate that TWI, elevation,
land use, and NDVI have the greatest values for PR, closely followed by
lithology, precipitation, aspect, curvature, and SPI. The prediction of
landslides is moderately influenced by soil, geology, NDVI, and relief.
The least significant conditional elements in the study include slope,
distance to highways, distance to faults, distance to rivers, and distance
to lakes. The construction of the Tizi N’Tichka road has played a pivotal
role in stabilizing slopes, directly influencing the impact of this factor, as
visually depicted in the accompanying photos. This stabilization also
indirectly affects the interplay with the proximity-to-roads factor,
thereby contributing to the occurrence of landslides in our region.
Furthermore, the interplay of the (altitude) and (slope) factors gives
rise to various forms of ground movement (Bilașco et al., 2021), notably
evident along the Tizi N’Tichka road. These manifestations encompass
rockfalls, landslides, and mass displacements, typically attributable to
gravitational forces, as illustrated in the provided images. A noteworthy
parameter, the Topographical Moisture Index (TWI), widely employed
in hydrological analysis, serves to outline the area’s susceptibility to
retaining water. Its significance is augmented through the incorporation
of slope-related effects.
According to the natural failure approach, the LSI value was
computed from the RP and RF of the thirteen conditioning components
and separated into five unique susceptibility classes: very low, low,
medium, high, and very high (Jenks). The landslide susceptibility map
based on the categorisation in Table 2 is displayed in Fig. 6(a). Around
40.22% of the research region has extremely low to low sensitivity to
landslides, whereas 19% is medium susceptibility. In contrast, the high
and very high susceptibility groups account for 40.78% of the region.
According to the natural failure approach, the LSI value was
computed from the RP and RF of the thirteen conditioning components
and separated into five unique susceptibility classes: very low, low,
medium, high, and very high (Jenks). The landslide susceptibility map
based on the categorisation in Table 2 is displayed in Fig. 6(a). Around
40.22% of the research region has extremely low to low sensitivity to
landslides, whereas 19% has medium susceptibility. In contrast, the high
and very high susceptibility groups account for 40.78% of the region.
The training data set was used to create the success rate curve, and
the remaining validation data set was used to create the prediction rate
curve. Fig. 6 illustrates the ROC curves for both scenarios (c). The
training data set’s AUC value is 0.747, and the validation data set’s is
0.923, as seen by the curve.
4. Discussion
Due to the complicated spatial integration of climate change, LULC
change, and pressure from human activities, the occurrence of landslides
is increasing in mountainous parts of Morocco (Hamdouni et al., 2022).
As a result, there is an urgent need for more precise investigations that
produce better spatial data to evaluate landslide vulnerability. Its ac­
curacy is dependent on effective causative variables, suitable modelling
techniques, and data quality requirements (Ayalew & Yamagishi, 2005).
Despite the significance of physiological factors in the current stability
of slope materials, FR and PR models were used in this study to delineate
the spatial susceptibility of landslides at National Road Number 9 with a
total of 214 landslide events. Landslides are closely related to human
and economic factors that are crucial in mountainous regions.
The southern and northern regions were proven to be the most sus­
ceptible to landslides by the used FR and PR models. This outcome,
however, is in line with the findings of the considerable fieldwork that
was done in the study region. Extreme altitude (>2200 m), limited plant
density, brittle rock formations, heavy precipitation, numerous fractures
and faults, and quick erosion of the topsoil are some of the character­
istics of these locations. These qualities make these places very suscep­
tible to landslides, so they should be prioritised for maintenance and
mitigation (Mohammed et al., 2020).
The key uncertainties and restrictions of this study in this respect are
the variety of data sources and the geographical resolution of the vari­
ables. For instance, there were discrepancies in the resolution of the
DEM, LULC, lithology, and soil type data. Many research show that,
despite improvements in landslide modelling studies, selecting the right
spatial resolution is still difficult (Wang & Brenning, 2021; Huang et al.,
2022).
These restrictions are typical in regions with a dearth of geographic

9
B. Youssef et al. Catena 232 (2023) 107464

Fig. 6. (a) Final landslide susceptibility index (LSI) map: (b) Prediction rates of conditioning factors, (c) ROC curves of test samples, and (d) ROC curves of vali­
dation samples.

catchment located in the Moroccan High Atlas demonstrated a notable

Table 2 accuracy of 0.80, as reported by (Namous et al., 2021). In a separate
The area in km2 and the percentage of area of results of the five landslide sus­
study conducted by (Abdelfattah et al., 2019) in the northern region of
ceptibility classes.
Morocco, the FR model yielded exceptional results with an Area Under
Class Area (km2) Percentage of the Area (%) the Curve (AUC) value of 0.97. Comparatively, in the current study, a
Very low 1,183,157 18.93 precision value of approximately 0.923 was achieved.
Low 1,330,623 21.29 The consistent performance of the FR model across various regions in
Medium 1,187,742 19
Morocco underscores its potential as a valuable tool for landslide risk
High 1,320,404 21.13
Very high 1,227,994 19.65 assessment. These results contribute to the growing body of knowledge
regarding landslide susceptibility in Morocco and can assist in informing
decision-making processes related to land management and disaster risk
data, as is the case in the study area. All theme layers were resampled to reduction efforts.
a resolution of 12.5 m to undertake this investigation. The absence of Finally, studies of this kind should be carried out often, and the best
information on certain crucial factors, including soil depth, water table method to model them is with updated inventories. The public could
depth, and soil texture, is also a problem. The findings of this study may utilise the resultant maps with ease. To prevent additional loss of life and
be deemed objectively effective in raising the calibre of spatial results property, identified danger locations should be evacuated. A warning
linked to landslide prediction at the national level, notwithstanding system can also be built based on maps of landslide vulnerability.
these restrictions and considering the performance assessment results. Moreover, the usage of regional landslide susceptibility maps may be
The application of the Frequency Ratio (FR) model in the Ourika utilised to automatically create safe paths in the event of a landslide in

10
B. Youssef et al.
particularly mountainous terrain (Saha et al., 2005). These actions can
contribute to preserving a viable economy and way of life along the
region’s transportation corridors.
5. Conclusion
The selection of the national road number 9 between Ouarzazate and
Marrakech for this study was driven by its strategic location in the hilly
regions of the eastern area, which require close monitoring due to the
prevalence of landslide phenomena. Additionally, the road holds sig­
nificant economic importance and has experienced numerous landslide
incidents in the past. Through extensive fieldwork and the digitization of
photographs using Google Earth, a comprehensive inventory of land­
slides in the study area was compiled. The relative frequency approach,
based on 70% of the training data, was employed to establish the cor­
relation between conditioning factors and landslide occurrences in the
region. The resulting prediction rates were then utilised as weights for
each feature to construct the landslide susceptibility index. The findings
revealed that the area within 100 to 200 m of the roadside exhibited
high susceptibility to landslides. Most landslides occurred in dry terrain
at elevations ranging from 2200 to 2510 m, characterised by high
topographic wetness index (TWI) values and low normalised difference
vegetation index (NDVI) values. Furthermore, the occurrence of land­
slides was often associated with locations experiencing high annual
precipitation, indicating that natural factors predominantly contributed
to landslide incidents. Notably, despite the limited availability of his­
torical data and research on landslides in the Tizi N’tichka area, the
results of this study demonstrated high reliability, as indicated by an
area under the curve (AUC) value greater than 0.923. These outcomes
serve as a foundational basis for conducting further research and veri­
fying the performance of alternative methods such as the susceptibility
index model (SII), the inventory validation (IV) model, and the weight of
evidence (WoE) model. The data generated from this study hold prac­
tical significance for citizens who can utilize them to identify and avoid
hazardous locations. Furthermore, competent authorities can employ
this information to develop effective strategies for mitigating risks along
the road.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
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