Workshop 9

Uncertainty Analysis using MCMC Optimization Results

Objectives: In this workshop, you will gain experience using the Parameter
Value Samples method within an uncertainty analysis. The parameter values
sampling method was designed to utilize results from an MCMC optimization
trial. The results from an MCMC optimization trial include parameter sets, the
uncertainty analysis will sample the parameter sets during the uncertainty
analysis simulation. The correlation between parameters is preserved with this
approach, which does not lead to unrealistic combinations of model parameters
that are possible with the other sampling methods in HEC-HMS.

The parameter values sampling method also works with parameter sets the
modeler might have developed when calibrating the model to historic events.
This workshop is designed to be generic, the student is provided 100 parameter
sets that are assumed to have come from an MCMC optimization trial. The
workshop explores two methods for estimating the 1-percent flow. Method 1 is
the typical approach where a single deterministic simulation is used along with
the single best set of parameters. Method 2 applies the uncertainty analysis
compute option and 100 equally likely parameter sets (or individual models). A
true uncertainty analysis would utilize more than 100 samples. Also, this
workshop does not include uncertainty in the boundary conditions, the same 1-
percent precipitation depths and time pattern are used for each event within the
uncertainty analysis.

Background: An HEC-HMS model of the Russian River watershed, above

Cloverdale, will be used for this workshop. Coyote Valley Dam, which forms
Lake Mendocino, is located on the East Fork of the Russian River, about 2 miles
northeast of Ukiah, California. Below Coyote Valley Dam, the East Fork of the
Russian River flows a very short distance (approximately 1 mile), until it merges
with the main Russian River. From there the Russian River travels approximately
100 miles south to southwest until it terminates at the Pacific Ocean. The total
drainage area for the watershed above Coyote Valley Dam is approximately 105
square miles (sq mi). The drainage area for the Russian River watershed at
Cloverdale is 501 sq mi.

Lake Mendocino is a multipurpose reservoir utilized for flood control, water

supply, hydropower, and recreation. Another USACE dam and reservoir project,
Warm Springs Dam (which forms Lake Sonoma), is located on Dry Creek, which
is a tributary to the lower Russian River. Downstream of Coyote Valley Dam, the
East Fork and West Fork (unregulated) of the Russian River combine at the city
of Ukiah, CA. From Ukiah, the Russian River travels through the California
towns of Hopland, Cloverdale, Geyserville, Healdsburg, and Guerneville.
Channel capacities of the Russian River vary from about 7,000 cfs near Ukiah to
35,000 cfs at Guerneville. The Russian River Valley is flanked by two coastal

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ranges. The Mendocino Range borders the basin to the west and the
Mayacamas Mountains to the east.

As part of a study to evaluate alternative reservoir operations, an HEC-HMS

model was built, calibrated, and validated for the Russian River watershed.
Major streams, lakes, HEC-HMS subbasin delineations, and stream gage
locations within the Russian River watershed are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Russian River Watershed.

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Tasks: The following major tasks will serve as an outline for the workshop:

A. Create and populate a 1-percent frequency storm meteorologic model.

B. Create and run a simulation of the 1-percent flood, compare results to a
flow frequency analysis.
C. Create parameter value samples and a cumulative probability distribution
function.
D. Create an uncertainty analysis for simulating 100 samples of the 1-percent
flood.
E. Add parameters to the uncertainty analysis.
F. Compute the uncertainty analysis and compare results to a flow frequency
analysis and results from the deterministic simulation.

Spend approximately 10 minutes per task to accomplish all tasks in this workshop
within the time allotted.

Workshop:

Open the HEC-HMS project in the Workshop 9 directory. The project is named
RussianRiver_Cloverdale. Only those modeling elements upstream of the
Russian River at Cloverdale gage are included in the model. You should notice
two basin models, one is called Continuous and the other is called 1Percent
Basin. The Continuous basin model was used to manually calibrate a single set
of model parameters to a continuous simulation spanning 5 years, 2002 – 2006.
If you select the Continuous simulation (open the basin model in the Map), and
then select the Run_2002-2006 simulation, you should see results at the
Cloverdale Gage junction that look like Figure 2. For the most part, the
simulated flow matches the observed flow, the NSE is 0.872 and the Percent
Bias is less than 10 percent.

The “1Percent Basin” basin model was created by copying the Continuous basin
model and then removing the CVD reservoir element. The reservoir releases a
very small amount of water during flood events. Since we are using the model to
simulate the 1-percent flood, a choice was made to remove the CVD reservoir
element since releases from the reservoir would not impact the peak flow at the
Cloverdale gage.

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 Figure 2. Simulated and Observed Results for the 2002 – 2006 Period.

A. Create and populate a 1-percent frequency storm meteorologic model.

A continuous simulation model was developed as part of the reservoir operation

study previously mentioned. Hourly point precipitation information, daily
precipitation totals, and the PRISM 30 year average precipitation dataset were
used to create an interpolated (inverse distance interpolation) precipitation raster
for the watershed (the PRISM dataset was used as a bias grid). Figure 3 shows
the precipitation gages and PRISM raster used to create the interpolated
precipitation raster dataset. The gridded precipitation information was processed
to create a basin averaged time-series of precipitation for the drainage area
upstream of the Cloverdale gage. Tools within HEC-DSSVue were used to
process this basin average precipitation time-series and extract the annual
maximum 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr, 1day, 2day, 4day, 7day, and 10day
precipitation volumes. Finally HEC-SSP version 2.2 was used to fit a GEV
distribution to each of the annual maximum depth-duration precipitation datasets.
The 1-percent precipitation depths from this analysis are included in Table 1.
The values in Table 1 have already been adjusted for a storm area of 501 square
miles, no area-reduction is needed in the HEC-HMS meteorologic model.

A copy of the HEC-SSP project is in the Workshop 9 directory. You can open the
HEC-SSP project using Version 2.2, there are ten Distribution Fitting analyses
in the project.

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 Figure 3. Precipitation Gages and PRISM 30 Year Average Precipitation Raster.

Table 1. 1-Percent Depth-Duration Values from Basin Average Precipitation Analysis.

Duration 1-Percent Precipitation Depth (inches)
1 Hour 0.59
2 Hours 0.99
3 Hours 1.40
6 Hours 2.31
12 Hours 3.84
1 Day 5.83
2 Days 9.69
4 Days 11.93
7 Days 15.46
10 Days 18.42

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 1. Within the HEC-HMS project, create a new meteorologic model, set the
precipitation method to Frequency Storm.
2. Link the 1-percent meteorologic model to the “1Percent Basin” basin
model (make sure the Include Subbasins option is set to Yes).
3. Within the Frequency Storm component editor, set the storm duration to
10 Days, intensity duration to 1 Hour, intensity position to 50 Percent,
area reduction to None, and choose the Uniform For All Subbasins
option for defining the depth-duration precipitation information.
4. Enter the depth-duration information from Table 1 into the component
editor, as shown in Figure 4.

Generally, it is not a good idea to create a Frequency Storm in HEC-HMS that

exceeds 4 days. This is due to the method used to create the temporal pattern of
the event. When you evaluate results, you will notice incremental precipitation
for every time step within the storm duration, 10 days was chosen for illustrative
purposes.

Figure 4. Completed Component Editor for the 1-Percent Frequency Storm.

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B. Create and run a simulation of the 1-percent flood, compare results to a
flow frequency analysis.

In addition to the CVD reservoir being removed from the “1Percent Basin” basin
model, the initial moisture deficit was set to a reasonable value that is typical of
the flood season, 0.5 inches of initial moisture deficit.

5. Create a simulation run that combines the “1Percent Basin” basin model,
1-percent storm meteorologic model, and the “1PercentEvent” control
specification.
6. Compute the 1Percent simulation run and open the summary table for the
Cloverdale Gage junction element.
7. Add the 1-percent flow at the Cloverdale Gage junction to the flow
frequency plot in Figure 5. (HEC-SSP was used to compute the flow
frequency curve; the Bulletin 17C procedure was used along with
observed annual maximum flow at the Cloverdale gage.)

Question 1: What was the peak 1-percent flow value computed in Task B? List
the major assumptions that are part of the analysis within Task B?

The teams with the correct answers will be awarded a prize.

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Figure 5. Flow Frequency Curve for the Cloverdale Gage Location.

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C. Create parameter value samples and a cumulative probability
distribution function.

Output from an MCMC Optimization is available in the ParameterSamples.xlsx

spreadsheet, located within the Workshop 9 folder. Figure 6 shows a snapshot
of the spreadsheet. The MCMC optimization was configured to sample the
constant loss rate, storage coefficient, and groundwater 1 storage coefficient for
the Russian 50, Russian 60, and Russian 70 subbasins – nine parameters total.
Each row in the spreadsheet represents a possible HEC-HMS model. Within
HEC-HMS, a paired data curve is required for each individual parameter. It is
important that the correct index is maintained between the paired data curves.
When sampling, HEC-HMS will pull in all paired data values at the same index.
For example, when event 1 is computed, the parameter values within row 1, or
index 1, will be used. For event 2, the parameter values within row 2, or index 2,
will be used.

Figure 6. 100 Parameter Sets from MCMC Optimization.

8. Using the Paired Data Manager, add nine Parameter Value Sample
curves to the project. Use descriptive names, like Russian 50 GW 1
Coefficient, Russian 50 Percolation Rate, Russian 50 Storage Coeff…
9. Select the first Paired Value Sample in the watershed explorer to open the
component editor. Choose the correct Category, Method, Parameter,
and Units (Note: Percolation Rate is the Constant Rate parameter of the
Loss method in U.S. Customary Units). Figure 7 shows the component
editor for the Russian 50 groundwater 1 storage coefficient.

Figure 7. Parameter Value Sample Component Editor.

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 10. Select the Table tab and then paste in the correct values from the
ParameterSamples spreadsheet. There should be 100 parameter values
for each paired data curve. You can see a plot of the parameters on the
Graph tab, shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8. Graph of Parameter Values – Russian 50 Groundwater 1 Storage Coefficient.

11. Repeat steps 9 and 10 for all nine parameter value samples.

Uncertainty in initial condition can be a critical component in a hydrologic

analysis. The computed moisture deficit from the continuous simulation was
processed within HEC-SSP using a Duration Analysis. An example of this
analysis is seen below in Figure 9. Large storms in the Russian River watershed
generally occur between December 1 and February 28. HEC-SSP has an option
to define a subset of the year for the duration analysis. A duration analysis
determines the percent of time a value is exceeded. A cumulative PDF can be
created from this information by taking 1 – percent of time exceeded. Table 2
shows the cumulative PDF analysis for soil moisture deficit between December 1
and February 28. For most of the probability space, between 0 and 0.9, the initial
moisture deficit is less than 0.47 inches. There is a 10 percent chance the initial
moisture deficit will be greater than 0.47 inches.

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 Figure 9. Moisture Deficit from Continuous Simulation.

12. Using the Paired Data Manager, add one Cumulative Probability
Distribution to the project. Name the cumulative distribution “Initial
Deficit”.
13. Within the component editor for the cumulative distribution, set the data
source to Manual Entry. Select the Table tab and enter the information in
Table 2.

Table 2. Cumulative PDF for Initial Moisture Deficit.

Deficit Cumulative Probability
(inches)
0.0000 0.00
0.1079 0.75
0.2337 0.85
0.4687 0.90
2.5352 0.95
3.7193 0.98
3.7750 0.99
3.8109 0.999
3.9000 1.00

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D. Create an uncertainty analysis for simulating 100 samples of the 1-
percent flood.

14. Create a new Uncertainty Analysis. Choose the “1Percent Basin” basin
model and the 1-percent meteorologic model.
15. Open the component editor for the uncertainty analysis and enter a start
date of 01Jan2000 at time 00:00 and an end date of 12Jan2000 at time
00:00. Set the time interval to 1 Hour. Enter 100 as the total number of
samples. Figure 10 shows the completed component editor.

Figure 10. Uncertainty Analysis Component Editor.

E. Add parameters to the uncertainty analysis.

16. Add twelve parameters to the uncertainty analysis. To add a parameter,

right click on the uncertainty analysis in the watershed explorer and
choose the Add Parameter menu option.

Parameters 1 – 3 will be used for defining the initial moisture deficit.

17. Open the component editor for Parameter 1. Choose the Russian 50
subbasin element, Initial Deficit as the parameter, Simple Distribution
as the method, and User-Specified for the distribution. Set the minimum
value to 0 and the maximum value to 7. Finally, select the Cumulative
Distribution Function created in Step 12. See Figure 11.

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 Figure 11. Specifying a Cumulative Distribution Function for Initial Deficit.

18. The initial deficit for the Russian 60 and 70 subbasins will be tied to the
Russian 50 subbasin using the Regression With Additive Error option.
Figure 12 shows how to configure the initial deficit sampling options for the
Russian 60 subbasin, the component editor for Russian 70 will be similar.
Using a slope of 1 and intercept of 0 will results in values that are equal
to the Russian 50 subbasin. Set the distribution to Uniform. An error
term is being used to add some additional variability, but the parameters
for the error term shown in Figure 12, -0.01 and 0.01, will result in minor
differences between the initial deficit for these three subbasins. Assuming
basically the same initial moisture deficit should be reasonable since the
subbasins are adjacent, the sequence of antecedent precipitation should
be similar between the three subbasins.

Figure 12. Initial Deficit for Russian 60 Linked to the Russian 50 Subbasin Element.

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Question 2: List the major assumptions that are part of the Uncertainty
Analysis?

19. Parameters 4 – 12 will be used for defining the uncertainty information for
the constant loss rate, storage coefficient, and groundwater 1 storage
coefficient for the Russian 50, Russian 60, and Russian 70 subbasins.
Configure the component editors for Parameters 4 – 12 by choosing the
Specified Values sampling method and then the appropriate paired value
curves. Figure 13 shows the completed component editor for the constant
loss rate within the Russian 50 subbasin element.

Figure 13. Russian 50 Subbasin Element with Specified Values Selected for the Constant
Loss Rate.

F. Compute the uncertainty analysis and compare results to a flow

frequency analysis and results from the deterministic simulation.

20. Before computing the uncertainty analysis, choose the Cloverdale Gage
Outflow time-series as a saved result. To save results within an
uncertainty analysis, right click on the uncertainty analysis name in the
watershed explorer and choose the Results… menu option. Click the
Select… button and then choose the element and the individual time-
series to save. By default, HEC-HMS does not save output from an
uncertainty analysis, the modeler must choose which time-series are
saved.
21. Compute the uncertainty analysis. The analysis should take about 1-
minute to complete 100 samples.
22. Go to the Results tab on the watershed explorer to view results from the
uncertainty analysis. You can click on the Parameter tables to see the

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 sampled parameter values. As expected, the parameter values for
Parameters 4 – 12 should be in the exact same order as they were
defined in the parameter value sample paired data curves (spend a few
minutes to verify the parameters for sample 1 correspond to row 1 in the
ParameterSamples spreadsheet). There is also a node with results for
the Cloverdale Gage junction element. The outflow hydrograph plot,
shown in Figure 14, shows the mean, +- one standard deviation, and
minimum and maximum hydrographs from the 100 samples.

Figure 14. Hydrograph Results for the Cloverdale Gage Junction.

23. Identify the minimum and maximum peak flows values from the Maximum
Outflow table. Plot the minimum and maximum peak flow values on the
flow frequency curve in Figure 5.

Question 3: What were the minimum and maximum peak flow values from the
100 sample uncertainty analysis?

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Question 4: Given the treatment of uncertainty in initial conditions and model
parameters, how confident are you that model results portray uncertainty in the
1-percent flood estimation?

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