Reservoir Simulation

(History Matching Practices)

Part of “Advanced Reservoir Simulation” Course
For “ADNOC Onshore”, UAE
2022

Hesham Mokhtar Ali

Senior Reservoir Engineer
in/heshammokhtarali/
©Hesham Mokhtar 2022
 Reservoir Simulation
• What is it?
– Numerical model of reservoir made up of a large number
of cells.
– Equations are solved to calculate pressures and flows.
• What can it do?
– Used to predict future performance to decide on optimum
development strategies
• What data does it need?
– Structural information, rock properties, fluid properties,
well data, historical production and operating constraints
Water saturation with time
• Underlying concepts:
– Mass Balance
– Darcy’s Law
– Fluid (PVT) model
– Well inflow model

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Simulation Philosophy
Field development planning process:

Simulation
Reservoir Realization (s) + Development Strategy = Case

Gas Reqm’ts

Gas Source

Development
Wells Option

Subsea Topside

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Overview of Modeling Procedure
• Reservoir structure (seismic, logs)
Reservoir
description • Gross and net thickness (logs)
• Well locations and perforated intervals

Design reservoir • Porosity, permeability (logs, cores)

grid
• Fluid analyses (lab data) pressure and contacts (logs, well tests,
etc.)

Select simulator
• Black oil or compositional fractured, condensate, etc. Horizontal
wells, EOR, thermal, etc.

History Solve for pressures

matching and saturations
• Historical production data

Predict and optimize • Investigate different scenarios

future production • Visualize results economic calculations

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Treatment of Uncertainty
• The Uncertainty and Optimization Process: applies
to volumetric and simulation cases

• The most common inputs, stages in the 3D

modelling process and corresponding outputs.

• Uncertainty is an integral part of simulation studies

and performance optimization.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Assessing Dynamic Uncertainty
1. Define subsurface uncertainties and their ranges.

2. Make experimental design runs with an unconstrained scenario.

3. Create proxy equation for the simulation model.

4. Create CDF curve of recovery using the proxy equation.

5. Build deterministic P10-P50-P90 base models.

6. Use base models to assess alternatives.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Understand & Quantify Impact of Uncertainties
Build your best case model using most likely
values of input data.

Define uncertainties, their ranges and

distributions.

Perform sensitivity analysis to find the most

influential uncertainties.

Perform Monte-Carlo simulations to assess

the range and distribution of the response.

Build a low, mid, and high case.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Match?
• The process of adjusting the reservoir
description until the production and
pressures predicted by the dynamic model
match the historical production and
pressures.
• Adjusting the simulator input in such a way as
to achieve a better fit to the actual reservoir
performance.
• The changes in the simulation model should
most closely reflect the changes in the
understanding of the field geology.
• The field and individual wells cumulative
productions, water cuts and pressures are
those for matching.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Match
 Test a reservoir model’s validity
and accuracy History Matching

 Procure a set of parameters

that yields the best prediction of
Future Performance Prediction
the reservoir’s performance
history

 Help to identify weaknesses Simulation of Reservoir Performance

and ways of improving reservoir

and model description data

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Reservoir Simulation Problem
Direct Problem

INPUT System Equations

OUTPUT
Parameters Model Simulator

Inverse Problem
Trial & Error Approach

INPUT System Equations

OUTPUT
Parameters Model Simulator

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Model Validation
• Model parameters adjustment must be:
• Reasonable
• Non-contradictory
• Consistent with known geological and engineering
evidence
• Sensitivity studies can investigate uncertain
parameters.
• History matching drawbacks:
– Non-unique
– Certain parameters may have a limited impact on the
history match but may have a dramatic impact on the
prediction.
• Aquifer dimensions
• Original hydrocarbon in-place!
• Assess the transition to forecast
• Status or “do nothing” case is consistent in rate’s
decline

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Uncertainty Analysis
• The purpose of uncertainty analysis is to understand the impact of uncertainties in information
on the forecasts you are making to make the most effective use of the available resources.
• These uncertainties develop from a lack of knowledge around parameters and may be different at
different points in the field life cycle.
• To have the most confidence in your forecasts, you need to try to minimize these uncertainties while
identifying the most influential parameters in your model.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Principles of Uncertainty Analysis
• The process requires a simulation case or volume calculation case.

3D static model = Base Case Scenario

Identify key uncertain parameters

Key uncertain parameters:
• Depth Conversion
• Reservoir structure Assign a reliable range for the uncertain parameters
• Property distributions
• Fluid contacts
Run multiple realizations (Loops)

Analyze the effect of varying key parameters on volumetric

or simulation cased: Histograms, Tornado plots, etc.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Sensitivity Analysis: Applications
• How sensitive is the OIIP to
where the horizons are
placed in the model?
• How sensitive is the
cumulative oil production to
injection rates, saturation end
points, and initial oil-water
contact?
• How sensitive is the water
breakthrough time to the fault
sealing properties?

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Data Uncertainties
 The integrated evaluation will present an estimate of the input parameters (k, kr, Φ, layering, structure,
faults, etc.) with an uncertainty level.

• WOR and GOR measurements (occasionally)

• Rate fluctuations

• Gas rates (not measured accurately)

• Injection data

• Well test data

• Pressures measured during flow tests are usually less reliable than those obtained during shut in

• Reservoir formation parameters are usually measured at the point of observation (Wells)

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Data Uncertainties
 Most Uncertainty Variables
 Pore volume
 Permeability
 Kv/Kh ratio
 Relative permeability curves
 Transmissibility
 Aquifer properties
 Mobile oil volumes
 Well inflow parameters
 Porosity
 Gross thickness
 Net thickness
 Structure (top/bottom/extent)
 Original fluid contact
 Rock compressibility
 Fluid properties
 Capillary pressure
 Production rates
©Hesham Mokhtar 2022
 History Matching Approaches
• *

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Process of History Matching
• Once a consistent initialization is obtained, the next step is to match fieldwide performance,
beginning with pressure (by withdrawing and injecting the correct total reservoir-fluid volumes),
then proceeding to a fieldwide match of phase rates.
• These initial material-balance steps help to validate the geological, petrophysical, and geophysical
interpretations as a whole (e.g., structure, depositional model, and porosity distributions) without too
much concern on individual well details.
• Fieldwide variables can often be matched much more easily than individual well performance, providing
basic quality control checks.
• The next step is to match pressures.
• It is often necessary to match fluid production from individual wells or well groups to achieve a regional
pressure match.
• Once the pressures are matched, remaining fluid production performance can be matched.

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Pressure Matching Process
Input well production
history and run simulator
(use reservoir volume?)
Matched
Not
Matched Adjust volumetric parameters
Check magnitude and shape
(e.g., aquifer size) &
of P vs. time (dp/dt)
transmissibility
Matched
Not
Matched
Isobaric maps to check
Adjust kh regionally
pressure gradients (dp/dx)

Matched
Not
Well plots to check Matched Adjust local kh,Vp
well pressure (dp/dt and
or well connection
dp/dx)
Matched

Saturation match

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Saturation Matching Process
Input well production
history and run simulator

Matched
Check magnitude and shape
of GOR and water cut vs.
time
Matched
Contour maps to check
gas and/or water fronts
Not
Matched Adjust global kr (Sgc, etc.),
initial contacts, drawdown
Not
Matched
Adjust kr, kh, Vp regionally
(may affect pressure match)

Matched
Not
Well plots to check Matched Adjust local kr,Vp
well GOR and water cut or well completions

Matched

Check pressure match, redo, or finish

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Match: Parameter Modification
• During the history-matching exercise, it is possible to modify many reservoir and fluid characterization
parameters to achieve an acceptable numerical model.
• Volumetric and flow parameters:

Volumetric Parameters Flow Parameters

Compartmentalization Flow barriers (vertical and lateral)

Fluid contacts High-permeability streaks and conductive faults
Drainage capillary pressure curve and endpoints Permeability distribution
Pore volume (Porosity) Fracture properties
Aquifer properties Porosity distribution
Leakage (fluid loss) Matrix-fracture exchange
Fluid influx Saturation function endpoints
Pore volume compressibility Imbibition capillary pressure curves
PVT properties & Fluid composition distribution Relative permeability curves

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Matching Stages
1 • Define determinate and indeterminate data

• Define the data to be matched and the

2 tolerances

3 • Determine the solution technique

4 • Match the pressure

5 • Match the saturation

6 • Match the well PI

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Matching Stages
 Define determinate and indeterminate data
 Define which variables may have a significant effect on the history match and which may not.
 Do a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters is suggested.
 Define the data to be matched and the tolerances

Final match tolerances depend on

The data The study The model Facilities

quality objectives coarseness available

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Matching Stages
 Determine the Solution Technique
 Keep it simple
 Keep it physical
 Use common sense
 Don’t panic!
 Run model under voidage control until pressures matched, then switch to principal product rate
 Proper use of pseudos is more consistent than rock curves
 Correct the problem, not the symptom
 The most difficult problems may require a rethink of the base data

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 History Matching Stages
 Match the Pressures

 Run the model under reservoir voidage control

 Examine the overall pressure levels, adjust the pore volume/aquifer properties to match overall
pressure

 Match the well pressures, modify local pore volumes/aquifers to match overall pressures; modify local
transmissibility to match pressure gradient

 Pressure survey (RFT)

 Final shut in pressure

 Flowing bottom hole pressure

 Wellhead pressure

©Hesham Mokhtar 2022

 Hesham Mokhtar
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Hesham Mokhtar
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©Hesham Mokhtar 2022