Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PUBLISHED ON
DECEMBER 19, 2017
i For the purposes of this case, cell phone penetration will be measured by the number of SIM cards in circulation.
ii SIM cards were the connection to the mobile network in so-called prepaid markets; typically customers purchased a card when
the phone was purchased and added voice and data hours via “top-up” purchases using scratch cards with unique codes.
iii There were also isolated reports of people paying up to $500 or even $1,000 for a SIM card.
This case is for teaching purposes only and does not represent
an endorsement or judgment of the material included.
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In June 2013 Ooredoo had been awarded one of two telecommunication licenses to operate in
mobile-starved Myanmar; the licenses were finalized in February 2014. Winning the license
had started the clock ticking for the Ooredoo Myanmar team and its key competitor, Telenor,iv
which planned to launch its services in November 2014. 2 Telenor and Ooredoo had both
committed to providing voice service to at least 75% of the country and data service to over
50% of the country within five years.3
With voice and data service as Ooredoo’s first priority, mobile financial services (also known
as mobile money) were expected to follow quickly. Mobile money—using a cell phone as a
bank account—was prevalent in emerging markets where a high percentage of the population
was unbanked, especially where people were more likely to own a mobile phone than to have
a bank account. In emerging markets, the most common uses of mobile money platforms were
for money transfers (typically to send funds from people in urban locations to family members
in rural areas) and bill payment. According to the Center for Financial inclusion, 90% of
Myanmar’s population did not have access to formal financial services.4
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 1: King on the Myanmar opportunity and challenges
Link 2: Gorman on the Myanmar opportunity and challenges
iv As mobile network operators (MNOs), both would be telecom service providers; SIM cards (rather than handsets) were the
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telecommunications industry, mobile financial services, the potential market size, and
Ooredoo’s competitive environment.
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Despite recent changes, modernity, on many levels, was not in the direct line of sight in mid-
2014. IFC consultant Julie Earne explained:
On the surface, you arrive here and you look around and it looks like a very modern
city, Yangon [Myanmar’s largest city and commercial hub]. And then you move
outside of Yangon and you realize that this is an anomaly and most of the country is
agrarian and not linked in and left behind..11
Myanmar was also the last frontier for mobile telephones. In 2012 only an estimated 9%–12%
of the people there owned a mobile phone, and fewer than 400,000 had Internet access.12 Part
of the reason for this low penetration was cost; the scarcity of SIM cards was also a factor.v For
example, in 2013 MPT made only about 350,000 SIM cards available, at a cost of 1,500 kyats
(about $1.50), through a lottery system—but on the grey market those cards sold for 50 to 70
times that amount.13
As part of Myanmar’s modernization effort, the government put out a telecommunications
tender bid in early 2013. It was actually the world’s most competitive licensing competition
ever seen. There were 92 bidders right at the beginning. Two international firms, Ooredoo and
Telenor, were selected.
One 2014 estimate suggested that telecoms could contribute as much as 7.4% of Myanmar’s
GDP over a three-year period and employ as many as 66,000 people full time.14
See Exhibit 2 for projected telecom subscribers in Myanmar, 2012–2019.
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 3: Earne on pace of cultural change
Link 4: King on cash-based society
Link 5: Htun on challenges facing the rural population
vSmartphone and feature phone penetration had gained some degree of traction in Myanmar prior to Ooredoo’s launch, as many
households owned one of them as an all-in-one entertainment device (camera, television, gaming device, and music player). At
an average cost of $43 in 2013, it was a less expensive alternative to televisions or computers. (A feature phone was a mobile
phone that incorporated functionalities such as the ability to access the Internet and store and play music but lacked the advanced
capability of a smartphone.)
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Ooredoo had taken several steps to mitigate risk in Myanmar by working with the government
to strengthen the legal framework, vi alleviating land issues, and exercising sensitivity in
regions in conflict and hard-to-reach areas. It had also created direct ties in-country by hiring
800 local employees and by sponsoring the country’s Football Federation and the national
soccer team.
In the three months following the issuance of its license in February 2014, Ooredoo had begun
to build out its network. It had contracted with a mandated tower construction company,15
built its first towers, completed the switch in Yangon, and made its first successful call.
Ooredoo rolled out its 3G services beginning in several major cities, with plans to quickly
expand into rural areas. The network would require no further upgrades to accommodate
mobile financial services.
It was expected that Myanmar’s mobile phone system, like those of other emerging markets,
would operate on an almost exclusively prepaid basis. SIM cards would be sold via a network
of agents and dealers in convenience stores and other retail outlets throughout the country.
Ooredoo SIM cards were only compatible with phones with 3G service or higher—i.e., with
smartphones—which presented some challenges. As Jennifer Ong, a Bain consultant working
in Myanmar, explained, it would be up to the agents who sold the cards to “explain it to
customers such that when they buy an Ooredoo SIM card they would check their phone and
make sure it is compatible. Because if you put an Ooredoo SIM card in a phone that is not
compatible with this network then their user experience is going to be quite terrible.”16
Ooredoo had already signed contracts with the leading distributors and was on its way to
achieving its five-year goal of 240,000 SIM activation points and approximately 722,000 top-
up points of sales. Launching about one month prior to Telenor, Ooredoo sold over one million
SIM cards the first week out of the gate, with Cormack observing, “We’ve got over a million
customers… which we’re obviously very pleased about, but also very humbled about because
it’s higher demand than we even expected, even knowing that there was huge pent-up
demand.”17
Ooredoo advertised its launch on huge billboards and incentivized early sign-ups with
offers of free Internet access. Click here for promotional video leading up to launch. See
Exhibit 3 for additional marketing collateral.
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 6: Cormack on winning the bid
Link 7: Gorman on preparing for launch
Link 8: Cormack on the industry’s inflection point
viIncluded were the Telecom Law of 2013 with rules against anticompetitive practices, regulations for network sharing, and clear
legal intercept rules.
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The Competition: Telenor Myanmar
The other major player awarded a license was the largest carrier in the Nordic region, the state-
controlled Norwegian firm, Telenor. Telenor had over 150 million customers worldwide, with
extensive operations in Asia, including in Myanmar’s neighbors Thailand, India, and
Bangladesh as well as in Malaysia and Pakistan. In Myanmar, Telenor hoped to replicate its
customer experience in Pakistan, where its subscriber base had soared to an estimated 32
million over 10 years and where the company’s Easypaisa mobile financial services had taken
off.
Like Ooredoo, Telenor was running at full capacity on multiple fronts in Myanmar to identify
potential distributors and cell phone tower sites, deal with operating challenges such as a
chronic shortage of electricity, and obtain permission to build cell towers. Petter Furberg,
Telenor’s chief executive for Myanmar, noted that the services would roll out in three major
cities just ahead of its planned November deadline:
An extensive distribution network will be the backbone of our mass market
approach. As part of Telenor Myanmar’s network roll-out plan, we will recruit
distributors and franchisees in each and every state and region in Myanmar with
the goal of establishing a network of 100,000 retailers within five years of the
network and service roll-out. These partners will include “mom-and-pop” shops
and other small businesses, and will sell a wide range of Telenor’s mobile
communications products and services, such as SIM cards, recharge vouchers and
other value-added services, at locations convenient to our customers.18
Unlike Ooredoo, Telenor would offer 2G services in addition to 3G voice and data, with an
additional deployment of services expected subsequent to launch. Telenor’s SIM cards would
therefore be compatible with inexpensive feature phones as well as smartphones. Telenor’s
stated launch strategy was to capture the market lead position with a low-cost operating
model, a high degree of outsourcing, and a lean organizational structure. Customer pick-up
was based on the continued decline in handset pricing, with feature phones priced from $10
and smartphones from $35.19
According to most industry observers, Telenor would be a formidable competitor for Ooredoo.
And, as Ong commented, “On Telenor’s side the advantage that they have is they are
launching both a 2G and a 3G network. 2G is an older technology that all phones would be
able to tap into, feature phones included, so anyone who wants to buy a Telenor SIM card can
just buy it straight off and use it in their phone.”
VIDEO EXCERPT
Link 9: Ong on Telenor and 3G versus 2G service
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closely monitored average revenue per user (ARPU) for the networks in which they operated.
ARPU in Asia was around $70 per year; Ooredoo expected a slightly higher ARPU in
Myanmar. Profit margins industrywide averaged about 30%.vii
Customer retention rates, and the associated churn rates (or customer turnover rates) were also
an important metric. As Gorman noted,
Telco operators have had mixed results on becoming personal brands. Around the
world, people who love Apple, love Apple. Doesn’t matter what Apple does, they
love Apple. Telecos haven’t been as successful in having that passionate
connection with their customers.20
Gorman added that banks, too, typically engendered more loyalty from their customers than
MNOs did. That said, in markets like the United States where customers tended to be locked
into contracts and operators had loyalty programs, churn rates might be as low as 1.35% per
month, or 15% a year.21 But churn was an especially important metric in emerging markets. As
Ong explained,
Developed markets are mostly a postpaid market so it is a lot easier there to drive
customer loyalty because they are tied to a contract. In an emerging market where
it is mostly prepaid, how do you drive customer loyalty when people can just buy
your SIM and throw it away?
In prepaid markets, churn was typically defined as occurring when a customer did not use an
MNO’s branded SIM card for three months; in fact, most telecos deactivated a SIM card after
three months. In India, with more than 15 mobile operators in a highly competitive,
predominantly prepaid market, a study published in 2014 noted that the annual churn rate
surpassed 50% (equivalent to a monthly rate of 6%).22 Competitive pressure, not surprisingly,
also led to lower ARPU.
Customers in prepaid markets generally bought a SIM card with a limited number of minutes
at the time of their phone purchase. As they used their phone, they replenished their stock of
minutes through branded top-up scratch cards with unique codes, available from a wide
variety of retail outlets.
John Nagle, CEO of a global cash-processing network, explained the top-up process:
A scratch card is airtime that a consumer buys from a retailer… so they go in and
they ask for a top-up and what they’re doing is they’re loading value—five or ten
or 20 dollars’ worth of airtime—onto their phone…Mobile operators print a card
with their brand on them and they print a number at the back and they put a foil
vii
Assuming an average user provides $10 of revenue, with a profit of $3 (30%), the profit margin per user would be 30%.
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over the number so that you can’t read it. You scratch out this and you input the
number and it puts the value of the card onto your airtime on your phone.23
The agents selling these cards would buy them in a variety of denominations and typically
sold several mobile operator card brands. Different mobile operators offered slightly different
denominations and agents would be challenged to keep all of the brands in stock. Ooredoo
cards, for example, would be offered in denominations of 5,000, 10,000, and 20,000 kyats. Based
on a Myanmar usage study conducted in May 2013 (when MPT was the only mobile provider),
customers tended to top up most frequently at local convenience stores (61%), followed by
mobile stores (33%). About 88% of customers purchased top-up cards for five minutes or less.24
Just as SIM cards connected customers to their voice service, agents were the mobile network
operator’s connection to its client base—not just to sell the products, but also to educate
consumers about changes in service. Ooredoo had two levels of dealers: super dealers and
dealers. The super dealers bought the airtime in bulk, recruited and organized the dealers, and
resold the airtime to them. The dealers sold the airtime directly to Ooredoo’s customers.
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 10: Gorman on customer loyalty
Link 11: King on churn
Link 12: Nagel on airtime top-ups
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paid agents a commission for the cash-in/cash-out services they performed for money
transfers, even when the customer used his or her own mobile wallet for the transaction.
Airtime could typically be bought directly from the MNO by a customer using a mobile wallet;
the MNO paid no transaction fees to the agent for those purchases.
Financial inclusion experts believed that customers using mobile wallets gained more trust in
the workings of formal financial systems and ultimately would upgrade from money transfers
and bill payments to more sophisticated value-added services such as loans and savings
accounts.
The launch of mobile wallet services often impacted new SIM card acquisition rates, with some
operators reporting growth rates in their customer base increasing by approximately 3%. At
the high end of customer-acquisition statistics accompanying mobile wallet launches, Telenor
Pakistan reported a 14% increase in subscribers in one quarter of 2010 compared to the same
period in 2009.26 SIM cards could be topped up from the mobile wallet, thus eliminating the
period that customers were without airtime service, which could increase ARPU by as much
as 15% because of increased use of that service. The experience of MTN Uganda was
instructive in terms of potential synergies between the mobile wallet business and the airtime
business. Launched in partnership with Stanbic Bank in March 2009, MTN Uganda’s
MobileMoney service enabled customers to send and receive money domestically and to buy
airtime using their mobile phone. Customer churn decreased from 45% annually to less than
10% annually after MTN introduced mobile wallets.
M-Pesa
One of the best-known examples of a mobile wallet network serving the unbanked was M-
Pesa. M-Pesa was launched in Kenya in early 2007 by Safaricom (part of the Vodafone group)
as a mobile wallet service that allowed users to deposit, withdraw, and transfer money with a
mobile device. All that was required to access M-Pesa was to go the nearest M-Pesa agent or
outlet. After providing proof of identification, the customer opened a mobile wallet with his
or her phone number and was given a four-digit PIN number. The PIN guaranteed that only
the account owner could access the funds. To deposit money in their wallet or withdraw funds
from it, customers went to an M-Pesa agent. To transfer money to another M-Pesa account,
they entered their PIN and the amount to be sent on their phone, and the funds were instantly
transferred to the receiver. Ordering a money transfer with M-Pesa felt a lot like sending a few
SMS (text messages). If the SIM card was lost, the customer brought proof of identity to an M-
Pesa branch to get a new card with the same phone number and the same account information.
Within eight months of M-Pesa’s launch, over 1.1 million users had transferred a total of over
87 million USD using the service; by September 2009 over 8.5 million users had transferred a
total of 3.7 billion USD. By June 2014 M-Pesa had 15 million users conducting more than two
million daily transactions.
At the time of launch, Kenya had an almost 40% penetration of mobile phones, in which
Safaricom was the clear market share leader, with 80% of the customer base. Nearly 20% of
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Kenyans were unbanked. One year after launch, one study estimated that over 80% of Kenyans
were aware of M-Pesa, and 66% had used it.
At launch, Kenya had a very limited financial infrastructure in place with only 491 branch
banks, 500 post office branches, and 352 ATMs servicing a population of 15 million. Within a
year after launch, M-Pesa had 2,262 distribution outlets; by March 2009 this number had risen
to nearly 10,000.27
However, despite the high penetration of mobile phones in Kenya and other factors such as a
Central Bank regulation supportive of mobile financial services, the service was not profitable
until year three.
THE OTC MODEL
With OTC services, customers went to an agent who performed the transaction on their behalf,
using his or her mobile phone to send the funds to the recipient’s phone. The sending customer
paid the agent in cash for the amount to be transferred and needed neither a SIM card nor a
phone. An SMS with an access code for the money was then sent to the recipient, who went to
another agent who “cashed out” the funds (less a stated fee). In this model, the agent served a
similar function as a private bank—the predominant channel for money transfers where no
mobile money system existed—at locations that were presumably more convenient for
customers.
Ong described the benefits to launching an OTC service in a developing market:
The advantage of an over-the-counter model is that it is easier to educate people
about mobile money through it. With mobile money you are basically telling
someone to use their phone to perform financial transactions. But you need to
assure people of the security of the transaction, right? So when you use an OTC
model, you have the agent who will explain how this is going to be done and you
have the agent doing it as well.
According to King, OTC service had some distinct advantages over the mobile wallet,
especially in the short-term: “The benefit with OTC is the immediate volume that you get.
That’s not necessarily a benefit for us, but it’s a benefit for our agent network because if you
don’t give your agent network enough volume, they’re going to lose interest, simple as that.”
Given that Ooredoo had just launched airtime services, the use of the OTC network to launch
mobile money meant that the company did not need to wait for penetration of Ooredoo SIM
cards into the market to gain momentum. (Mobile wallets, on the other hand, relied on
customers buying Ooredoo SIM cards to use in their own phones to make money transfers.)
Easypaisa
One of the best-known examples of an OTC model was Telenor’s Easypaisa service in
Pakistan. When Telenor Pakistan and Tameer Microfinance Bank launched Easypaisa in 2009,
88% of the population in Pakistan did not have access to formal financial services, with only
2,500 banking branches servicing 105 million people in the rural areas of the country.
However, there was 65% mobile penetration (a figure that was projected to grow to 95% by
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2013), creating what industry observers termed “a perfect storm of factors that had the
potential for the explosive mobile financial services adoption: a proactive mobile operator, an
operator with a banking license and a market with high mobile penetration but low financial
inclusion.”28
Easypaisa was lauded by financial inclusion organizations as an overwhelming success:
They created a network of over 11,000 agents, each processing bill payments and
money transfers. Easypaisa is unique in that customers do not need to have a
mobile account with Telenor to pay their bill at an Easypaisa shop—they simply
present their cash and bill to an agent who completes the payment on a mobile
phone.29
Easypaisa had also delivered huge benefits to Telenor Pakistan, having proven to be a
customer acquisition tool. See Exhibit 4 for screenshot from the site.
In 2013 the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) reported that Easypaisa was the
third-largest mobile money deployment in the world, serving 7.4 million unique users. Of
these customers, 2.4 million were wallet users and another 5 million were unique OTC
customers.30
OTC service was originally conceived as a bridge for the unbanked to mobile wallets and
ultimately to more sophisticated financial instruments, but Telenor reported that this
migration had been slow:
We have to recognize that OTC is a real solution for a particular segment of the
unbanked and is there to stay. Regardless of how convenient and attractive we
make mobile wallets, there will always be a segment of customers who will
prefer the OTC solution because they find it easier to rely on the agent to send
money and they prefer not to open an account for themselves.31
As industry watchdog service GSMAviii reported: “[OTC] agents are at the frontline of every
mobile money deployment: if they don’t sign up customers, no customers sign up; if they don’t
hold float, ix customers can’t transact; and if they aren’t reliable, the mobile money service
won’t be seen as reliable.”32
Much more was required from mobile money agents than from agents selling prepaid airtime,
who only stocked and sold SIM and top-up cards. Mobile money agents needed to be better
capitalized. Research had shown that they needed up to ten times more float than their airtime
viii The GSM Association (GSMA, or Groupe Speciale Mobile Association), founded in 1995, is an association of mobile
operators and related companies devoted to supporting the standardization, deployment, and promotion of the GSM mobile
telephone system.
ix In traditional bank systems, float is defined as the time between the deposit of a check in a bank and payment. Float here
refers to how much money agents must have in their accounts to cover the cashing out process for mobile banking customers.
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counterparts required and that they waited longer for their profits. Regulations in most
countries also required that mobile money agents have a bank account.
In addition, mobile money agents also needed more training, and their work was more labor
intensive. The sale of airtime simply involved selling a scratch card, whereas the sale of a
money transfer required handling the transaction, educating customers, and helping them
through the process. Whenever a customer came to an agent to send or receive money, or a
client with a mobile wallet came to an agent for cash-in or cash-out services, the agent would
receive a commission. SIM card sales and top-ups generated higher margins per transaction
and quicker payouts for agents than money transfers or bill payments did, so the agent
incentive scheme for mobile money needed to be carefully crafted.
Ong explained that there was a trade-off for patient agents:
With OTC, agents can earn a commission from the money transfer itself— whereas
with a wallet system, they only earn commissions from the cash-in and cash-out.
So how do you continue incentivizing these agents? You promise them increased
volume and then you find other ways to incentivize them. For instance, you give
them an incentive for getting people signed up to a wallet. Or for every customer
they register, they get a cut for every mobile money transaction the customer
performs (up to a certain number).
THE ECONOMICS OF MOBILE WALLET VS. OTC MODELSx
Based on industry norms, the revenues and gross margins earned from consumer fees for
money transfer services were almost identical for mobile wallet and OTC. In the case of the
wallet, for each transaction—regardless of the amount—the sender would pay a $0.05 person–
to-person transfer fee, and the receiver would pay $0.70 for cashing out (withdrawing) the
money from an agent. The telecom company would pay a commission of $0.225 to the agent
who made the deposit on the sender’s wallet (i.e., provided cash-in service) as well as a
commission of $0.225 to the agent who made the withdrawal from the receiver’s wallet (i.e.,
provided cash-out service). In other words, the telecom company would pay 60% of the
customer’s fees as commissions to the agents and would retain 40%.
In the case of OTC money transfers, the sender would pay the fee of $0.75 (about 770 kyats)
per transaction to the telecom company, and the telecom company would then pay
commissions of $0.225 to the sending agent and $0.225 to the receiving agent. Again, the
telecom company would retain 40% of the customer’s fees.
Although the revenues and gross profits per money transfer transaction were similar in the
OTC and mobile wallet cases, the number of money transfer transactions was expected to be
xData for the economics of mobile wallet and OTC is estimated based on the GSMA Webinar on Mobile Money Pricing &
Commissions, February 2011 (http://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/gsma-webinar-on-mobile-money-pricing-and-
commissions ) with case writer refinement.
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greater in the mobile wallet model because of ease of use. On the other hand, initially the
adoption of mobile money transfer was expected to be faster for OTC than for mobile wallet,
for several reasons: senders and receivers would not need a SIM card to complete the
transaction; less customer education would be required; and agents would likely be
incentivized to promote the money transfer service. However, as the number of services
offered by the mobile wallet (e.g., bill payment and direct deposit of salaries) increased, in later
years the number of customers was likely to grow faster with a wallet compared to OTC.
Despite these advantages, because the wallet was a more sophisticated system, in offering it
the telecom company would incur additional expenses: costs to develop and maintain the
technology platform, higher marketing and salary expenditures, and registration fees paid by
the telecom company to the dealer each time they registered a customer.
These financials are captured in Appendix 2.
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 13: King on role of banks and mobile money providers
Link 14: Paing on the banks’ interest in mobile money
Link 15: Htun on serving the rural unbanked
Link 16: Ong, King and Paing on OTC versus mobile wallet
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operating hours were inconvenient. Attributes that were considered important in money
transfer services were speed of the transaction and convenience, costs, security, and ease of
use.
Gorman considered how a typical customer might think about switching from using a bank’s
money transfer services to using mobile money transfer services. Would the customer benefit
economically? In terms of pricing, a leading bank charged $0.49 (about 500 kyats) for the fax
fee plus 0.15% of the amount being sent. There were no set charges associated with Hundi, bus
terminal personnel, or friends (these services were typically provided in exchange for favors
or other services) but—especially with Hundi or the bus service personnel—there was less
certainty that the money would actually arrive. In terms of customer understanding, a fixed
fee per transaction would be the easiest for the Myanmar market to understand.
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 17: Liew on current money transfer process at banks
Link 18: Tan on key research findings
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regulations as defined by the Central Bank. For its part, CB Bank would earn interest on the
mobile money float and, with the future launch of additional financial services, presumably
be able provide debit cards, micro loans, savings accounts, and microinsurance to Ooredoo’s
customers.
With airtime agents and dealers already in place, Gorman considered how to develop a
network of mobile money agents to both sell its products and educate consumers about the
use of those products. The options he considered were to leverage Ooredoo’s existing airtime
agent network, to create a separate network of agents who exclusively sold mobile money
products, or to engage a third party to distribute mobile money products. The decision was
complicated by the fact that as customers began to make airtime purchases over their phones,
moving to a mobile wallet would likely, over time, diminish the immediate commissions
agents made on airtime sales. But for the foreseeable future, agents would be the face of the
brand and were essential for consumer education.
As Gorman noted, “The thing you have to consider is having a viable commercial model for
the agents. If the money turning over in the system can only sustain a certain number of agents,
you know you need a certain amount of revenue and a certain number of transactions to keep
them interested and busy.”
WEIGHING THE OPTIONS
Gorman was still undecided about whether to roll out Ooredoo’s money transfer service in
Myanmar with OTC or with a mobile wallet. In thinking of OTC money transfers, one extreme
option would be that the sender and the receiver would not be required to use an Ooredoo
SIM card. The agents would complete the transactions on behalf of the customers. Gorman
considered the implications of the mobile wallet model for the central airtime business.
Though it was difficult to estimate the airtime ARPU in Myanmar due to the country’s low
mobile penetration prelaunch, Ooredoo estimated an ARPU of approximately $5.00 per
month.34 With increased competition and cellphone penetration the ARPU was expected to
decline. This would not change with the launch of mobile financial services using the OTC
model. However, if a mobile wallet system were launched, industry analysts estimated that
ARPU would increase by 15% because of the ease of topping up the SIM card using the wallet;
customers might increase phone usage, and hence, the ARPU could go up accordingly. This
increase in ARPU was significant, given that net profit in the airtime business was in the range
of 30%. Ooredoo could also expect the churn rate of its mobile wallet users to lower to an
annual rate of 15%; a 50% annual churn rate was expected to apply to the rest of the customer
base. This was a conservative estimate, based on the experience of MTN mobile money
Uganda—where the churn rate dropped to as low as 3% among mobile wallet holders. (The
reason for the lower churn rate among mobile money users was the high degree of consumer
stickiness to bank services relative to mobile carriers.)
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There were also other synergies to consider. When customers used their wallet to buy airtime,
mobile telecoms would not need to pay the 8% commissionxi to the dealers for top-ups. Finally,
Gorman believed that by offering a value-added service such as a mobile wallet, Ooredoo
could compete better against Telenor and increase customer acquisition. The actual increase
was not quantified, although speculations ranged from a growth of 3% to 5%.
On the surface, Myanmar was a textbook opportunity for mobile money, as Gorman pointed
out: “[There is a] very large, unbanked population….The mobile networks are just rolling out
now. The technology is much cheaper than it was ten years ago. So you’d think that all the
ingredients are in place for mobile money to be successful here.” Yet, as Gorman also noted,
most of the people in Myanmar would be experiencing a cell phone for the first time, and
asking them to understand mobile financial services so soon might be a risk because “there’s
only so much people can absorb quickly.”
King and Gorman were both aware of the unique challenges this “last frontier” presented.
Gorman summed up the task before them:
The difficulty with mobile money is, of about the 220 odd deployments around
the world, there’s some common characteristics among the successful ones…even
then ten or twenty are actually profitable. But the consistency is about scale,
operator lead, and the regulatory environment.
With Telenor days away from launching airtime services, Gorman carefully considered
Ooredoo’s next steps. Was Myanmar truly ready for mobile money? If so, what should the
timing of the launch plan be? And once launched, what should the model look like?
VIDEO EXCERPTS
Link 19: King on bank float
Link 20: Liew on benefits of mobile money
Link 21: King final thoughts
Link 22: Gorman final thoughts
xi
8% commission to dealers for airtime based on case writers’ estimates.
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Exhibits
Exhibit 1
Myanmar Consumer Overview
Demographics
Male 46%
Female 54%
Urban 23%
Metropolitan 10%
Rural 67%
Life expectancy (male) 61 years
Life expectancy (female) 67 years
Literacy rate 92% in 2009
High school 54%
Secondary education 11%
Avg # of children 2.03
Avg. urban household size 4.2
# Generations under one roof 2 (69% of households)
Occupation
Self-employed 65%
State-owned business 17%
Private—local 15%
Private—foreign owned 1%
NGO .2
Income
Less than $188US per month 54%
$189-$375 per month 14%
$376-$625 per month 6%
None 23%
Urban income classification
High socio/economic>$500/month 22%
Middle socio/economic $225-500/month 36%
Low socio/economic <$225/month 42%
Household amenities
CRT TV 73%
Rice cooker 77%
Refrigerator 60%
Indoor plumbing 40%
Air conditioner 19%
Plasma TV 18%
Washing machine 17%
Gas stove 12%
Internet 2%
Wish list
Washing machine 21%
Refrigerator 15%
Laptop 15%
Air conditioner 14%
LCD/Plasma TV 13%
Mobile phone (not smartphone) 12%
Tablet (i.e., iPad) 8%
Digital camera 8%
Personal computer/desktop 7%
Smartphone 7%
Sources: TNS, “Myanmar Lifestyle and Benchmark Report,” June 18, 2013
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Exhibit 2
Projected Telecom Subscribers in Myanmar, 2012–2019
Source: Analysys Mason. Average numbers. Telenor presentation, February 10, 2014.
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Exhibit 3
Ooredoo Airtime Services: Marketing Launch Collateral
English translation
Ad on left: With 1500 kyat SIM card, you will hear clearly. Today, in Ooredoo Myanmar stores, you can get them.
(At the very bottom, under logo): You can buy them in Mandalay, Rangoon, and Naypyidaw.
Ad on right: With 1500 kyat IM card, you can get faster Internet. Today, in Ooredoo Myanmar stores, you can get
them. (At the very bottom, under logo): You can buy them in Mandalay, Rangoon, and Naypyidaw.
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Exhibit 3 (continued)
English translation
Ad on left: If you buy Samsung Galaxy V, you get 100 minutes free each month, 100 SMS transfers each month,
and 300MB data for 3 months.
Ad on right: Free Facebook access. You can use Ooredoo Internet for 500 kyat a day. (Bottom box): Every day for
500 kyat, you can use 30MB of Internet, 20MB of kyat Facebook for free. Text 30 MB to 2238.
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Exhibit 4
Easypaisa Site Visual for Mobile Money Transfer
Source: “2011: The Impact of Mobile Financial Services,” Telenor Group, http://www.telenor.com/sustainability/impact/2011-the-
impact-of-mobile-financial-services/.
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Exhibit 5
Focus Group Participants
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Appendix 1
Case Participants: Interviewee List in Yangon, Myanmar
Ross Cormack CEO Ooredoo
*Interviewed in Singapore
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Appendix 2
Base Case Projections (Case Writer Estimates)
OTC
OTC Bcase (Customers can only make OTC
transactions) year 0 year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5
Total fixed costs $1,420,000 $1,100,000 $1,175,000 $1,450,000 $1,325,000 $1,400,000
Acquisition of the platform and upgrades $500,000 $200,000
Maintenance $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000
Market research $120,000
Advertising $300,000 $375,000 $450,000 $525,000 $600,000
Non-variable payroll $800,000 $700,000 $700,000 $700,000 $700,000 $700,000
Margin per customer (old and new) $2.15 $2.95 $4.15 $5.35 $6.15
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Appendix 2 (continued)
Base Case Projections (Case Writer Estimates)
MOBILE WALLET
Wallet Bcase (Customers can only make wallet based
transactions) year 0 year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5
Variable cost per customer (old and new) $5.03 $6.49 $9.15 $11.52 $12.70
Payments for cash-in/out $4.20 $5.70 $8.40 $10.80 $12.00
Recruitment and Branding of agents $0.33 $0.29 $0.25 $0.22 $0.20
Call center $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45
License for Mobile Money platform $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
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Endnotes
1 Daniel Ten Kate, Kyaw Thu, and Adam Ewing, “Myanmar Picks Telenor and Ooredoo for
Phone Licenses,” BloombergBusiness, June 28, 2013,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-27/myanmar-picks-telenor-and-ooredoo-
for-phone-licenses-over-soros. (Note: penetration numbers vary from 8% to 12%.)
2 ”Telenor and Ooredoo Win Myanmar Telecoms Tender,” DW, June 27, 2013,
http://www.dw.de/telenor-and-ooredoo-win-myanmar-telecoms-tender/a-16911779..
3 Aung HlaTun and Jared Ferrie, “Update 3 – Telenor, Oordeoo Win Myanmar Telecoms
2013, http://cfi-blog.org/2013/06/10/inclusive-activity-in-myanmar/.
5 All statements by Mr. King (head consultant, mobile financial services, Ooredoo Myanmar)
are cited from August 28, 2014, interview in Yangon, Myanmar. (See Appendix 1 for case
interviewee list.)
6 “Myanmar,” The World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/country/myanmar.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html#bm.
8 “World Development Indicators: Education Completion and Outcomes,” The World Bank,
2014, http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/2.13.
9 Cited from September 2, 2014, interview in Yangon, Myanmar.
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21627698-myanmar-has-licensed-
few-foreign-banks-its-financial-sector-still.
11 Cited from September 1, 2014 interview in Yangon, Myanmar.
13 Angelina Draper, “Tech Scene in Myanmar Hinges on Cellphone Grid,” New York Times,
15 Two tower construction companies had been mandated: Myanmar Tower Company and
Pan Asia Majestic Eagle. (Sources: “Pan Asia Majestic Eagle Limited (PAMEL) Enters into
First Ever Non-Recourse, Cross Border Financing in Myanmar,” Reuters, September 30, 2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/pamel-myanmar-
idUSnPn5vlc2W+81+PRN20141001; “Digicel Group and YSH Finance Sign Agreement with
Ooredoo Myanmar,” Digicel Group, December 2, 2013,
http://www.digicelgroup.com/en/media-center/press-releases/achievements/digicel-group-
and-ysh-finance-sign-agreement-with-ooredoo-myanmar.)
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16 All statements by Ms. Ong (consultant and research project manager, Bain Consulting
Singapore), are cited from August 27, 2014, interview in Singapore.
17 Cited from September 2, 2014, interview in Yangon, Myanmar.
18 Khine Kyaw, “Telenor’s Aim Remains High in Myanmar,” Myanmar Eleven, August 22,
2014.
19 Telenor, presentation at analyst and press conference, February 10, 2014.
20 All statements be Mr. Gorman (digital services senior director, Ooredoo Myanmar) are
for Wireless Carriers in the United States from 1st Quarter 2013 to 3rd Quarter 2014,” Statista,
http://www.statista.com/statistics/283511/average-monthly-churn-rate-top-wireless-carriers-
us/.
22 P. S. Rajeswari and P. Ravilochanah, “Churn Analytics on Indian Prepaid Mobile Services,”
May 2013.
25 Greg Chen, “Mobile Money: OTC versus Wallets,” CGAP Blog, September 12, 2013,
www.cgap.org/blog/mobile-money-otc-versus-wallets.
26 Telenor Pakistan – Scaling to Meet Accelerated Growth: Case Study: Telenor Easypaisa (Cape
http://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/programmes/mobile-money-for-the-
unbanked/mmu-examples/easypaisa.
30 Nadeem Hussain, “The ‘EasyPaisa’ Journey from OTC to Wallets in Pakistan,” CGAP,
32 Neil Davidson and Paul Leishman, “Incentivising a Network of Mobile Money Agents,” in
Building, Incentivising and Managing a Network of Mobile Money Agents: A Handbook for Mobile
Network (London, England: GSMA,April 15, 2010), 1.
33 Cited from August 30, 2014, interview in Yangon, Myanmar.
34 Ooredoo Group, Capital Markets Day 2014 (Doha, Qatar: Ooredoo, May 12, 2014),
http://www.ooredoo.com/en/media/get/20140512_CMD-2014-Ooredoo-Myanmar.pdf.
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