Graded Assignment SCI203B: Biology | Unit 9 | Lesson 4: Gather and Analyze 2

Name: Aamori Johnson Date:05/02/2022

Graded Assignment
PBL Project 4: Analyze Data
Research and analyze geoscience data of the past and connect it to a recent event.

BI-ESS3-5: Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based
forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.
Examples of evidence, for both data and climate model outputs, are for climate changes (such as precipitation
and temperature) and their associated impacts (such as on sea level, glacial ice volumes, or atmosphere and
ocean composition).

(4 points)

Score

1) Describe a selected aspect of present and past climate and the associated physical parameters (e.g.,
temperature, precipitation, sea level) or chemical composition (e.g., ocean pH) of the atmosphere, geosphere,
hydrosphere, or cryosphere, related to the severe weather phenomena you chose. Include changes over time.
Answer: “Geysers add abnormal amounts of heat energy, mineral matter, and wat to highly localized
regions of a normally balanced ecosystem. As a consequence, these areas develop local anomalies in
their biologic and geologic features of sometimes even modify the atmospheric environment.”- (Rinehart,
S. John) Since geysers add heat energy, it does affect the water temperature. A present example would
be, in a graph titled “Water temperature data from Beehive Geyser(June 13-20,2021). It shows the
fluctuation in water temperature. When geysers go off, the temperature rises. A past example of this
would be, graphs from 2000 and 2014 showing the daily, weekly, and monthly temperature after geysers
went off. The results were the same. Geysers respond to precipitation trends. “Less rainfall in time of
drought translates into less pressure in the geysers’ reservoirs, and leads to fewer eruptions.”(Climate
Basics, Papertrell.com) There has been less frequency of geysers since between 1998 and 2006. These
days, they are extremely rare, so we know that it because of the lack of frequency in rainfall over the
years. Because of the change in climate, the sea levels have risen. Since the sea levels have risen, a
famous geyser in particular is going off after longer intervals. In 1959, it had an interval of 67.4, and now it
is averaging 93 minutes.

(6 points)

Score

2) Use data to predict the future effect of a selected aspect of climate change on the physical parameters
(temperature, precipitation, sea level). Include model, data table, and graph. Identify what each dataset
represents.

Answer: I predict the future effect of geysers will be in increase in sea temperature. “Steamboat has proven more
active during the early 21st Century than any time since the early 1980s. Between late 1991 and 2000, there were no
large eruptions. Several occurred between 2000 and 2014. A phase of frequent eruption began in March of 2018.

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 Graded Assignment SCI203B: Biology | Unit 9 | Lesson 4: Gather and Analyze 2

Rapid temperature increases in geyser outlet channels typically reflect increases in flow due to eruptions of the
nearby thermal feature.”(Yellowstone, USGS.gov)

Figure 3 This graph shows the daily sea level

temperatures after a geyser went off. You can
see that at the very start of the day the
temperature is low, but nearing the middle it
goes up again after the geyser has gone off.

Figure 2 This is a data graph that give

stimulated predictions of geysers. On the
Score graph, you can see how the water
temperatures that the geysers cause when
they erupt.
(2 points)

Figure 1 This is a model that

3) Is the predicted effect on the system reversible or irreversible? If yes, how; if not, shows the temperature that the
why? geyser is created from and the
recharge temperature that
happens when it reaches a
Answer: Yes, I think it is reversible because if everyone decided to work
certain depth.
together, than we could make some changes on climate change. The reason
why I made that predication if because of how much climate change has affected the sea temperature. If
people work together to make the ocean healthier, then my hypothesis could be incorrect.

(2 points)

Score

4) Identify one source of uncertainty in the prediction of the future effects of your selected weather phenomena
related to climate change.
Answer: If the climate was to go in the opposite direction that it is now, that could affect the temperature
in a way I didn’t predict. The sea temperature has gone up over the years because greenhouse gases trap
energy from the sun, and the sea absorbs that heat. One variable that I didn’t factor in was if those
greenhouses were destroyed or tinkered with and that causes the sea to absorb less heat to no heat from
the help of the greenhouse.

(2 points)

Score

5) Identify limitations of the models that provided the simulation data and ranges for predictions.
Answer: A limitation of the model is the full range of climate change possibilities. It didn’t factor in all of
the things that climate change affected, and that’s why I feel like the predications are limited.

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 Graded Assignment SCI203B: Biology | Unit 9 | Lesson 4: Gather and Analyze 2

(4 points)

Score

6) Make a statement regarding how variation or uncertainty in the prediction of the effect in the future of your
selected aspect of severe weather related to climate change.
Answer: “An increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases produces a positive
climate forcing, or warming effect. From 1990 to 2019, the total warming effect from greenhouse gases
added by humans to the Earth’s atmosphere increased by 45 percent.”(EPA.gov)

Your Score ___ of 20

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