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Electric Vehicles: Environmental friendly and affordable?

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E Tijdschrift
Electromobiliteit op de weg

Electric Vehicles: Environmental friendly

and affordable?
Joeri Van Mierlo, Kenneth Lebeau, Maarten Messagie, Cathy Macharis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, MOBI research
center, Brussels, Belgium

Keywords: battery electric vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), sustainable mobility, Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA), Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

There is a close relationship between transport and environment. Due to its toxic emissions, transport has an impor-
tant impact on the environment, especially in urban areas. Therefore, when searching for ways to lower the ecological
SUMMARY

impact, our transport system has to change. Moreover, oil supply is limited and the usage of fossil fuels leads to more
CO2 emissions. In this article, both the environmental as well as the financial aspects of electric vehicles are analysed.
The first study is done through a life cycle assessment (LCA), in which the influence of the product on the environment
during its entire lifecycle is calculated (from cradle to grave). The latter study consists of a total cost of ownership (TCO)
model, in which the cost structure of conventional cars is compared with that of electric versions.

La pollution de l’air en ville atteint aujourd’hui des niveaux alarmants. Parmi les responsables, le secteur des trans-
ports est l’un des plus importants vu sa dépendance aux produits pétrolier. C’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de repenser
nos systèmes de transports en ville. Ceci est d’autant plus important que les réserves de carburants fossiles sont
RÉSUMÉ

limitées et que leur combustion participe au réchauffement climatique. Les véhicules électriques offrent ainsi une
alternative intéressante. Dans cet article, les aspects environnementaux et économiques sont analysés. Les perfor-
mances environnementales sont analysées au moyen d’une évaluation du cycle de vie (life cycle assessment)
considérant l’impact du véhicule depuis sa production jusqu’à sa fin de vie. Enfin, les performances économiques
sont évaluées au travers d’une analyse des coûts totaux de possession (total cost of ownership) qui considère les
différentes structures de coûts entre véhicules électriques et véhicules conventionnels.

Transport en milieu zijn onlosmakelijk met elkaar verbonden. In het uitstoten van schadelijke emissies speelt het
S AMENVATTING

transport een grote rol, zeker in stedelijke gebieden. Een vermindering van vervuiling zal dus voor een groot deel
in de transportsector moeten gezocht worden. Daarenboven zijn de energiebronnen op aarde niet onuitputtelijk en
leidt het verbranden van fossiele brandstoffen tot de vorming van het broeikasgas CO2. In dit artikel worden de
milieuaspecten alsook de financiële kosten van elektrische voertuigen geanalyseerd. De milieuaspecten worden
berekend door middel van een levenscyclusanalyse, waarin de invloed van een product op het milieu over zijn
gehele levenscyclus, van wieg tot graf (cradle-to-grave) wordt aangekaart. Bovendien wordt via een ‘total cost of
ownership’ model de betaalbaarheid van elektrische voertuigen afgewogen ten opzichte van conventionele voer-
tuigen.

Introduction
In October 2009, the European Council set the appropriate
abatement objective for Europe at 80 to 95 % green-
house gas emission reduction below 1990 levels by 2050.
This roadmap demonstrated that there is a need of 95 %
decarbonisation of the road transport sector as well as of
the power sector [1]. After 2020, conventional engine
efficiency improvements will be limited and relatively
costly, while the amount of biofuels that will be available
may also be limited. Hence, the electrification of passenger
cars is required. Electric vehicles can be fuelled by a
wide variety of primary energy sources – including gas,
coal, oil, biomass, wind, solar and nuclear – reducing oil
dependency and enhancing energy security. Europe is a
major oil importer. Nearly 4 billion barrels of oil were
imported into the European Union in 2012 at a value of
€385 billion [2]. This is one billion euros per day.
Compared to most other sectors of the European economy,
the value chain associated with petrol and diesel has two
main features: it has a low intensity of labour, meaning
that for every million euros of value added, relatively
few direct jobs are created, and most of the value chain
is located outside Europe, meaning that much of the
money spent on diesel or petrol leaves the economy.
Electric vehicles are very silent and have zero emissions
while driving. Therefore, they can significantly improve
local air quality. They can be made close to CO2-free,
depending on the primary energy source used. Zero-
emission powertrains go hand-in-hand with the decar-
bonisation of energy supply [3]. With the current Belgian
electricity mix, electric vehicles emit 1/3 of CO2 emis-
sions compared to a petrol vehicle on a well-to-wheel

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Fig. 1: Influence of electricity generation to the environmental impact of battery electric vehicles (BEV) [13]
basis. In line with the Belgian NAP targets (20 % renew-
able electricity production in 2020), the electric vehicle
environmental impact will further decrease [4].
Electromobility also opens possibilities for new business
models and new economic activities. Between 660,000
and 1.1 million net additional jobs could be generated in
Europe by 2030 due to electromobility, compared to a
reference in which cars continue to run on today’s tech-
nology. These benefits take time to achieve, because
Europe’s vehicle fleet takes 12 years to renew, but new
jobs are created from day one [2].
Nevertheless all these benefits, it isn’t straightforward
that the conventional vehicle market will transform to
an electric mobility one. The electric mobility is con-
fronted to a couple of persisting barriers for market
penetration, like the current high purchase price, the
limited range and the lack of charging infrastructure
(which entails range anxiety amongst the drivers).
Because of the early stage of technological development,
private investments are still rather limited due to high
investment risks. Electric propulsion systems require
high initial investments in technology development [5]
and infrastructure to be able to compete due to the tech-
nological “lock-in” of road transport, which is highly
dominated by hydrocarbon fuels. A clear policy frame-
work and the definition of a reliable time frame could
reduce investment risks and foster the deployment of
electrically driven vehicles. For this reason, many
European countries have developed electric vehicle
master plans with clear corresponding budgets [6]. As a
result, for example, the most selling car in Norway is not
a petrol or diesel car, but an electric one.
Impact on energy and environmental impact
The environmental impacts of conventional (diesel,
petrol) and alternative vehicles (LPG, CNG, hybrid, fuel
cell, battery electric) have been analysed in a Belgian
context, using a Life cycle assessment approach
[7,8,9,10,11,12]. All stages of the life cycle of a vehicle
are included in the analyses: raw material extraction,
transport, distribution, manufacturing of components,
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assembly, vehicle use (on a Well-to-Wheel basis), main-
tenance and end-of-life (EoL) treatment. The details of
the LCA model are defined in [13]. The environmental
impacts are calculated using the Recipe methodology
[14,15,16,17,18]. Battery electric vehicles have a clear
environmental benefit over other vehicle technologies.
However, electricity can be produced from various
sources, including renewable energy. There is a future
opportunity to further decrease the environmental
burden from battery electric vehicles (BEV) when
the electricity production is well managed. In Fig. 1
the influence of the electricity source on the overall
environmental impact is investigated.
BEVs powered with low carbon emissions, such as wind
power, hydropower or nuclear power, have lower overall
environmental burdens. They are followed by the sce-
narios of the Belgian electricity mix, and natural gas
electricity production.
In the extreme scenario in which BEVs are 100 %
powered with coal or oil based electricity, BEVs have an
impact comparable to petrol and diesel vehicles. It
should be mentioned that the share oil based electricity
is insignificant in Belgium and that the coal based elec-
tricity is being phased out.
Barriers for BEV introduction in Belgium
Even though electric vehicles offer many advantages to
the driver (low noise, low travel costs, high comfort, high
starting torque, etc.), electromobility is confronted to a
couple of persisting barriers for market penetration. The
next table gives an overview of these different barriers.
In January 2014, there are a total of over 420 charging
stations in Belgium. The location can be found via the
website of the Belgian Electric Vehicle Association
ASBE (www.asbe.be) as well as via the smartphone
mobile link (m.asbe.be)
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Fig. 2: Charging stations in Belgium and smart phone applications (www.asbe.be) [6]

Table 1: Barriers for (Plug-In Hybrid) Electric Vehicles – (PH)EVs [6]

Barrier group Barrier Explanation

Supply side High investment risks In today’s early stage of development, investment risks are high,
mainly because of high battery costs, R&D costs and the general
uncertainty.
Alternative propulsion systems require high investment costs in order
Lock-in to challenge the lock-in effect in road transport (mainly based on
fossil fuel)
In 2012, BEVs are on average 15,000 euro more expensive than
Demand side:
High purchase costs conventional vehicles, and PHEVs are 10,000 to 20,000 euro more
economic
expensive (depending on the battery capacity)
Demand side: Uncertainty on future Scepticism towards emerging technologies.
psychological transport
Uncertainty on Even though (PH)EVs need to pass the same safety tests as conven-
EV safety tional vehicles in order to be sold in Belgium, consumers are still to be
convinced.
Belgian citizens are used to the current way of travelling by car
Lock-in (mainly ICE vehicles, refuel time, infrastructure, price…). A successful
implementation of EVs requires a mentality change.
Low noise emission This is a concern for pedestrian safety.
Organizational Lack of charging Currently, there are about 400 (public) charging stations available in
infrastructure Belgium, which results in range anxiety.
Due to the high costs and weight of batteries, manufacturers are limi-
ted in the amount of batteries they can put in an EV, entailing a low
driving range. On a normal charging system, it takes between 5 and
Technology Limited driving range, 8 hours to fully charge the EV.
long charging time Range anxiety: Current EVs have a limited driving range of about 150
km. Even though the average daily driving distance in Belgium is
around 40 km, people still want a car that can drive at 400km and more.
Market barriers Lack of standardization Europe has not yet fully standardized the plug to charge the EV.
and synergy
This will change during the coming 5-10 years.
Limited supply of Early EVs had an unattractive exterior. This is changing with the
(PH)EVs launch of the current (PH)EVs. EVs are targeting mainly the small
car market.
Legislation Unclear tax system, difficult registration procedure
Fleet owners Uncertainty on residual Leasing price is calculated on the difference between purchase price
value (very high for (PH)EVs) and residual value (difficult to know right now)

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Fig. 3: Total cost of ownership analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
Within a TCO analysis, all costs that occur during the
ownership of the vehicle are included in order to show
the reader a complete and comparative view of different
vehicle technologies. In this TCO analysis, the following
parameters are included: purchase cost, registration
tax, vehicle road tax, maintenance, tires and technical
control cost, insurance cost, battery leasing cost, battery
replacement cost and fuel or electricity cost.
The following figure illustrates the TCO of electric vehi-
cles compared to other technologies for the medium car
segment [ ].The left Y-axis illustrates the total amount
of euros that will have to be invested, while on the right
Y-axis, the cost per kilometre is shown. Every colour rep-
resents a specific cost category. The figure shows that
the battery electric vehicles (Nissan Leaf and Renault
Fluence ZE) are almost as cost attractive as the hybrids
vehicles, but still trail the conventional vehicles. The 3
plug-in hybrids (right) are even more expensive.
However, as battery prices are dropping and scales of
economy are growing, the difference between vehicle
technologies will disappear.
Conclusions
Electromobility provides a promising future on the level
of climate change, air quality, job creation, economic
growth, reduced oil dependency, etc. However the transi-
tion towards such a new mobility system, will require
time as well a strong ambitious policy framework and
targets to make it happens. In the coming decade it is
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essential to provide an adequate framework that focuses
on the electromobility markets and segments where a
first take up is feasible followed by a larger support,
allowing to overcome the high initial purchase cost of
electric vehicles. Once the market is more mature the
production cost will go down which will open the market
to all kind of applications and segments.
This paper concludes that electric vehicles are more
environmentally friendly on a life cycle basis (including
electricity production and the production of the vehicle
and its components) compared to the conventional
petrol and diesel vehicles. Energy efficient vehicles have
a lower fuel price, but are sometimes characterized by a
higher purchase price.
A total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis has been con-
ducted in order to investigate the financial attractive-
ness of electric vehicles compared to conventional petrol
and diesel cars. The cost structure of the TCO is shown
in order to illustrate the differences between conven-
tional cars and electric vehicles.
We found that for city cars, the current higher purchase
costs for BEVs (no subsidies) entail a large difference in
TCO compared to the conventional cars. Even though
the fuel operating costs are significantly lower, they can-
not outweigh the current high purchase costs.
Incentives are hence necessary. Within the medium car
segment, the difference between the conventional and
the electric vehicles is lower. Some electric vehicles seem
financially comparable to their conventional rivals. This
could be because their current purchase cost is closer to
that of the conventional cars.
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