Probability in Bowling

Mathematics Exploration
Standard Level
Personal Code: glz289
Session: November 2017

mathematical presentation
 personalengagement

communication
understanding
Introduction whatishowling
For many teenagers, a bowling alley is a place to have fun and relax with friends. Most are

I
more concerned with enjoying the activity than the actual scores. However, when playing forpersonal
competitively, one is constantly tracking one’s own scores and those of one’s competitors. I investigation
experienced this when my primary school offered weekly bowling as a specialised sport. To
crawl up the leader board I learnt which balls to use, how to hold them and the right way to
bowl. As I learnt more, I watched my average score slowly increase.

As much as bowling is a fun sport for teenagers and families, it is also a skilful game played
whyisthis
seriously at an international level. To win, one not only has to improve one’s own scores, but w
also outperform the other competitors on the day. As explained by the World Bowling
Organisation, bowling is an “easy game to play, tough sport to master” (Worldbowling.org,
J important

2017). Reflecting on my firsthand experience of improvement through training made me

consider what chance I, not having bowled regularly for many years, would now have of Initintistigt
winning against a professional bowler. I
isattempting
answer
The aim of this investigation is to examine the probability of obtaining certain scores arosefromyour
aim depending on one’s skill level, and hence, of beating an opponent. This particular aspect was personal
engage
chosen as this investigation’s results could be used by aspiring and competing professionals

L
Why alike to determine their probability of success in a certain competition. This could inform not
hisaim only the competitions they enter, but also help with goal setting for training programs.

Scores in Bowling
t Establishthecontextthatisrelevanttothemathsyou will be
whichthe
of bowlingfrom
performing
There are several varieties different basics
useabsolute ofthat
numbersso pins. someone whoknowsnothing
This exploration
aboutthe
will investigate ten-pin bowling as it is the most prolific form in both recreational topiccould
engagement and competitions. For brevity, the term ‘bowling’ only refers to this specific understan
form.
definevagueterms
In bowling, each game consists of 10 ‘frames’, with each frame allowing players two bowls
to knock down as many of the 10 pins as they can.

As an initial score, players receive 1 point for every pin knocked down. However, point
bonuses are also awarded when all pins are toppled in single bowl (a strike) or in two bowls define
(a spare). For a spare, as well as the initial score of 10 points, the score of the following bowl
technical
terms
is added to the frame. In the case of a strike, the scores of the following two bowls are added
to that frame. This means that a frame’s maximum score is 30, produced by 3 consecutive
strikes. If a player rolls a strike or a spare in the final frame, 3 balls are bowled in that frame
as opposed to the usual 2 bowls per frame (Tenpin.org.au, 2017).

Overall, these scoring bonuses mean that while the maximum number of pins bowled per
game is 100, the maximum game score is 300. This is produced by a perfect game of 12
consecutive strikes.

1
 are reflecting
mm use words that highlightwhen you

use subheadingstosignpoststeps
Probability of Single Roll Scores
When first considering my probability of obtaining different bowling scores, the process
appeared toi be a simple matter of taking my game scores and creating a probability
distribution. Probability distributions list the probability that each possible value for a definemathemati
variable occurs (Stattrek.com, 2017). However, I soon realised that the latter part of the terms
exploration (calculating the probability of beating a professional competitor) would require
the probability of extreme scores which were unlikely to be attained in the small experimental
sample. On reflection, this intuition was correct as the highest score achieved experimentally
was 120. If the experimental probability of game scores was used, these higher scores would Show that
likely have a probability of 0. However, this would only be because the scores didn’t appear youundersta

c
in the sample, not because they were impossible. certain
of
mathemati
Consequently, to accurately calculate the probabilities of game scores not found in the
sample, the probabilities of the individual rolls which add to give this score must be ttheconsequen
calculated. Therefore, this investigation will begin by breaking down bowling to its most olthat
basic level: the individual bowls.
Signpoststepstaken toaddressglobalaim
Probabilities are independent when the probability of one event’s occurrence doesn’t affect
the probability of the other event’s occurrence. For the first roll of a frame (𝑅1 ) all 10 pins
are available to be knocked down. Therefore, the probability of knocking down a certain
number of pins on this roll is unaffected by previous rolls, making it an independent
probability. Theoretically, the probability of knocking down a certain number of pins in alway
𝑅1 could be calculated using: definevariab
explainthecontent them introduce asyou
𝑛(𝐴) equationsyou introduce
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑈) them
Where 𝐴 denotes the event, 𝑛(𝐴) is the number of ways an event could occur and 𝑛(𝑈) is the
number of possible of events. Hence, the probability of receiving a single score would be
expressed as:
1
𝑃(score) =
10
However, this theoretical probability doesn’t account for how a player’s ability makes the
probability of some scores higher than others. Nor does it reflect that pins often knock down
other pins in their vicinity, making certain scores more likely than others. For these reasons,
Reflection
using theoretical independent probabilities would be inappropriate. Therefore, experimental onsolution
probabilities were used to form a probability distribution (Fig. 1). 29 games were played,
lithitations
however there were more than 290 single rolls because strikes were rolled in the final frame
of 4 of the games. This means that there were effectively 11 frames in these 4 games.
raised

Explainwheredata camefrom
alwayexplainyourtablesgraphs
firstin thetext eitherreference
theirtitle inthesentenceitselfor
inbracketsattheend
2
Figure 1: Probability Distribution of 𝑅1 table Title Fig x what is inthefigure
Roll Score Frequency Probability columnheadings
0 36 36
294
1 21 21
294
2 3 3

MultipleFormsof
294
3 15 15
294
MathematicalExpression
4 10 10
U
useformatsthat
294
5 17 17

6 28
294
28
naturallysupport your
294 explanation
7 46 46
294
8 46 46
294
9 42 42
294
10 30 30
294
𝛴 294 1

Probability of Frame Rolls

A frame score is influenced by both the first and second roll in a frame. The probability of a
single bowl cannot be used in isolation, as within a frame, the number of pins knocked down
in the first roll (𝑅1 ) influences the number, and position of pins for the second roll (𝑅2 ),
directly influencing the second probability. This makes 𝑃(𝑅2 ) a dependent probability.
Therefore, a distribution (Fig. 2) of the experimental probability was constructed for the rolls
in a single frame 𝑃(𝑅2 ∩ 𝑅1 ).

3
 MultipleFormsof
MathematicalExpression
Figure 2: Probability Distribution of Rolls in a Frame
R1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
R2
0 4 6 1 3 3 8 12 17 24 30 30
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
1 6 1 1 0 2 3 6 8 15 12
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
2 1 0 0 1 1 2 4 12 7
294 294 294 294 294 294 294
3 4 2 0 1 2 0 5 9
294 294 294 294 294 294
4 2 2 1 2 2 0 1
294 294 294 294 294 294
5 4 1 0 4 0 4
294 294 294 294
6 2 4 0 3 0
294 294 294
7 4 1 0 1
294 294 294
8 4 4 0
294 294
9 1 0
294
10 4
294

Probability of Frame Scores (without scoring bonuses)

There are multiple ways of achieving the same frame score e.g. 0,1 and 1,0 both give a frame
score of 1. The frame scores (𝐹 = 𝑋) in the domain 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 9 are achieved without scoring
bonuses. In this domain, the probability of a frame score is the sum of all the probabilities of
frame combinations which add to give the desired score. 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋), 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 9 was
calculated as displayed in Figure 3 (full calculations in Appendix i) and summarised in a
probability distribution (Appendix ii). a
referencespecificpartofappendix
Figure 3: Sample calculations for 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋), 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 9
Frame Score (without scoring bonuses) 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋), 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 9
(𝐹 = 𝑋), 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 9
0 4
𝑃(𝐹 = 0) = 𝑃(0 ∩ 0) =
294
1 𝑃(𝐹 = 1) = 𝑃(1 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 1)
6 6 2
= + =
294 294 49
2 𝑃(𝐹 = 2) = 𝑃(2 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 2)
1 1 1 1
= + + =
294 294 294 98

4
Probability of Frame Scores (with scoring bonuses)
Frames scores of 10 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30 can only be achieved with strikes and spares. Therefore, they
are influenced by scoring bonuses. This means 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋) is affected by the probability of
future rolls. Scoring bonuses affect frames differently depending on score domain and the
number of frames left in the game. Thus, frames and score domains affected similarly were
addressed together.
Explain how you will formatting presenting yourfindings
Let 𝑎 be 𝑅1 . Let 𝑎 + 𝑏 be the sum of 𝑅1 and 𝑅2 (where 𝑅2 is bowled at the pins remaining
after 𝑅1 ). Let 𝐹𝑌 be the Frame 𝑌.
F1 to F10, 𝟏𝟎 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟏𝟗
𝑃(𝐹 = 10) is not only the probability of a strike or spare, but rather, the probability of a
strike followed by a subsequent frame score of 0, or a spare followed by a roll of 0. Applying
this concept to all scores in 10 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 19 produces the formula:
𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋) = 𝑃𝑎 (10)×𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (𝑋 − 10) + 𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (10)×𝑃𝑎 (𝑋 − 10)
One may think that because of the 10th frame’s extra roll bonus, it would require a different
formula. However, within this domain the only two options are a strike, followed by 2 bowls
or a spare followed by one bowl. If another strike or spare is bowled, one proceeds to the
following domain of 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30. Therefore, even though the extra roll bonus applies to
this frame, this domain excludes its use and therefore F10 and can regarded as the same as the
other frames.
F10, 𝑿 = 𝟐𝟎
𝑃(𝐹10 = 20) is a special case as unlike usual frames associated with scoring bonuses, the
order of the roll combination isn’t important. The three possible combinations of (strike,
strike, no pins), (strike, spare) and (spare, strike) are interchangeable in terms of frame score.
Therefore, its probability is calculated using the formula:
𝑃(𝐹 = 20) = (𝑃𝑎 (10))2 ×𝑃𝑎 (0) + 2(𝑃𝑎 (10)×𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (10))
F10, 𝟐𝟏 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑𝟎
A chain of strikes and spares, with compounding scoring bonuses is required to reach the
domain of 21 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30. In this domain, the scoring bonuses of Frame 10 are simplified
because 𝑅1 and 𝑅2 must be strikes for 𝑅3 to remain available to make the frame score greater
than 20. Therefore, the following formula calculates 𝑃(𝐹10 = 𝑋), when 21 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30:
𝑃(𝐹10 = 𝑋) = (𝑃𝑎 (10))2 ×𝑃𝑎 (𝑋 − 20)
F9, 𝟐𝟎 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑𝟎
For F9, when 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30, the scoring bonuses are limited as only the score of the one
remaining frame (F10) can be added to F9. Therefore, 𝑃(𝐹9 = 𝑋) is the probability of a
strike, followed by a frame score of (𝑋 − 10) as expressed by the following equation:
𝑃(𝐹9 = 𝑋) = 𝑃𝑎 (10)×𝑃(𝐹10 = (𝑋 − 10))

5
F1 to 8, 𝟐𝟎 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑𝟎
The maximum length of a scoring bonus chain is 3 frames (3 strikes in a row). Unlike F9, F1
to F8 can contain a full 3-frame chain. Considering this chain as 3 separate steps, one can
work backwards to establish the probability of arriving at the chain’s 3rd frame with the
previous frame being a strike or being a spare.
Let 𝐹𝑡 be the chain’s first frame and 𝐹𝑡+1 be the following frame.
Imagine a scenario where 𝐹𝑡,𝑎+𝑏 (10), 𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎+𝑏 (10) and 𝐹𝑡+2,𝑎 (10′).

Only 𝑅1 of 𝐹𝑡+1 will be added to the score of 10 for 𝐹𝑡 . Therefore, any 𝐹𝑡+1 score whose 𝑅1
is less than 10, will be less than 20. Therefore, for 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30, if a chain begins with a
spare, 𝐹𝑡+1 must be a strike. Therefore, the only way for 𝐹𝑡+1 to be a spare, is to begin with a
strike i.e. (strike, spare). Thus:

𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎+𝑏 (10)) = 𝑃𝑎 (10)×𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (10)

Meanwhile, the probability that the second frame in the chain is a strike (strike, strike) or
(spare, strike)

𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎 (10)) = 𝑃𝑎 (10)2 + 𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (10)×𝑃𝑎 (10)

Substituting the experimental probabilities for values 𝑎 and 𝑎 + 𝑏 (respectively listed in Fig.
1 and Fig. 2) into these formulas revealed that for 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30:

𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎+𝑏 (10)) = 0.0236

𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎 (10)) = 0.0340

Recall, for 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30 for F1 to F8, 𝐹𝑡 and, 𝐹𝑡+1 must be a spare or a strike. If 𝐹𝑡+1 is a
spare, only the following 𝑎 will be added. Whereas if, 𝐹𝑡+1 is a strike, the following 𝑎 + 𝑏
will be added. Therefore, the formula for the probability for frame scores when 20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30
is:

𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋) = 𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎+𝑏 (10))×𝑃𝑎 (𝑋 − 20) + 𝑃(𝐹𝑡+1,𝑎 (10))×𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (𝑋 − 20)

𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋) = 0.0236×𝑃𝑎 (𝑋 − 20) + 0.0340×𝑃𝑎+𝑏 (𝑋 − 20)

All the above calculations produced the probability distribution for 𝐹 = 𝑋, 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 30
(Appendix ii).
Upon completing the frame score probability distribution, a test was run to verify the
probabilities. If there is an Outcome A, every outcome which is not A is its complement
(www.probabilityformula.org, 2017). Therefore, (𝐹 = 1) and (𝐹 = 1)′ were complementary
events. The probabilities of complementary events sum to 1. Therefore, the frame score
probabilities of all 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋) for a single frame should sum to one.
However, F1 to F8 and F10 each summed to 1.112 and F9 summed to 1.089. This prompted
the realisation that these values were based on experimental probabilities. While one would
expect these experimental probabilities to sum to 1 in their original context e.g.
∑ 𝑃(𝑅1 ∩ 𝑅2 ) = 1, the substitution of these probabilities into the above formulas combined
the probabilities of events which weren’t complementary. It was therefore concluded that the

9 6

Describechallenges changes in thinking that occurred

duringtheinvestigation
 values in the distribution weren’t complementary probabilities. Rather, they were frequencies
in ratio to one another, based on various experimental probabilities. Therefore, the true
probability distribution (Fig. 4) was obtained by dividing each value by its frame’s sum.
Address
This probability distribution assumes that for frames where the scoring bonuses are applied inTimitation
the same manner, the probability of obtaining a certain frame score is constant across a game ofapply
i.e. a frame score of 12 is equally likely in F1 or F8. However, this is not entirely accurate as yourmath
it doesn’t account for how warming up or fatigue may cause variation in frame score in a real
probabilities at different points in the game. Personally, I noticed that at the start of each life
context
game my scores were significantly lower, and improved during the remainder of the game.
Figure 4: Probability Distribution of Frame Scores to 3 significant figures acknowledgewhen
byhowmuch you
P(F=X) F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9
roundF10values
0 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0125 0.0122
1 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0367 0.0375 0.0367
2 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00917 0.00937 0.00917
3 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0245 0.0250 0.0245
4 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0219 0.0214
5 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0520 0.0531 0.0520
6 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0642 0.0656 0.0642
7 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.116 0.113
8 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.147 0.144
9 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.219 0.214
10 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0267 0.0273 0.0267
11 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0186 0.0190 0.0186
12 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00305 0.00312 0.00306
13 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0131 0.0134 0.0131
14 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00926 0.00946 0.00926
15 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0173 0.0177 0.0173
16 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0269 0.0264
17 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0441 0.0450 0.0441
18 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0472 0.0482 0.0472
19 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0515 0.0527 0.0515
20 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00301 0.00278 0.0436
21 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00276 0.00194 0.000669
22 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000528 0.000319 9.55E-05
23 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00191 0.00137 0.000478
24 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.00145 0.000965 0.000318
25 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00300 0.00181 0.000541
26 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00420 0.00275 0.000891
27 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00717 0.00460 0.00146
28 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00821 0.00492 0.00146
29 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.0103 0.00537 0.00134
30 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00924 0.00454 0.000955

MultipleFormsof
7

MathematicalExpression
 Probability of Game Scores
signpoststeps
The frame score probabilities (Fig. 4) were used to find the game score probabilities. The
probability of each frame score is independent and therefore, the probabilities of all possible
combinations of frame scores from F1 to F10 were calculated using the formula:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)×𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃((𝐹1 = 𝑋) ∩ (𝐹2 = 𝑋) ∩ … ∩ (𝐹10 = 𝑋)) = 𝑃(𝐹1 = 𝑋)×𝑃(𝐹2 = 𝑋) … 𝑃(𝐹10 = 𝑋)
The probabilities of frame score combinations which produced the same game score were
added to give the probability of a certain game score. Let G be the total game score. Hence,
the probability of receiving any single game score 0 ≤ 𝐺 ≤ 300 was calculated. This was
placed in a probability distribution table (Appendix iii) and graphed (Fig. 5).
Figure 5: Probability Distribution of Game Scores

0.025 appropriate
scale MultipleFormsof
0.02 mathematicalExpression
0.015
Probability

0.01

0.005

Tlabels
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300

Game Score
axis

The mean (the average score), would normally be calculated by dividing the sum of the game
scores by the number of game scores. However, if a game score occurred twice it should be
counted twice as much. In the same way, for this investigation, if a game score is twice as
likely, it should be weighted twice as much. That is why the game score is multiplied by its
probability in the mean formula with 𝑛 equal to the number of possible scores (301):
∑(𝐺×𝑃(𝐺))
𝑥̅ =
𝑛
The mean was 101.2. Standard deviation quantifies the dispersion of data from the mean
(Investopedia, n.d.). A low standard deviation, denotes that data is closely gathered around
the mean. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of game scores was 18.88.

8
 Skewness of Probability Distribution
Normal distributions form a symmetrical, bell shaped curve around the mean for which the
mean, mode and median are all equal (Stattrek.com, 2017). They are useful because they
facilitate predictions about distributions. This was required in this exploration to determine
plain
relevance the probability of a future game score. However, the game score probability distribution
Evestigationwasn’t normally distributed; it was positively skewed (the graph’s longer tail points right).
Skewness is a measure of the level of asymmetry of a distribution (Holton, 2014). Sample
skewness can be quantified using the formula seen below. Let 𝑛 be the number of values in a
sample, 𝑥𝑖 be each specific value and 𝑥̅ be the mean.
∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )3
skewness = √𝑛 3
(∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )2 )2
(Macroption.com, 2017)
For this exploration, 𝑥𝑖 represents each game score. 𝑛 would normally be equal to the number
of game scores. However, in this investigation, a score’s frequency was view in terms of its
probability. Therefore, 𝑛 is the sum of all the game score probabilities and is equal to one. 𝑥̅
is calculated using the formula previously used for the game score mean. By substituting one
as the value of 𝑛, the mean formula can be simplified to:

𝑥̅ = ∑(𝐺×𝑃(𝐺))

The (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )3 of the original equation denotes each data point’s contribution to the skewness.
This was multiplied by the probability of the game score so that this contribution to the
graph’s skewness is weighted to the likelihood of its occurrence. Applying this to the
equation and inserting the simplified mean formula produces the reformed skewness formula:

3
((𝐺 − ∑ 𝐺×𝑃(𝐺)) 𝑃(𝐺)
skewness = ∑ 3
2
(∑(𝐺 − ∑(𝐺×𝑃(𝐺)) ×𝑃(𝐺))2

Substituting all values into this reformed skewness formula calculated the skewness of the
probability distribution of my scores to be 0.357 (3 sig. fig.)

9
 Normalising the Distribution through Transformation
As skewness measures a distribution’s asymmetry, normal distributions have a skewness of 0
Reflecting
(Siegrist, 1997). Currently, the graph’s 𝑥-axis is based on game scores. Conceptually, the aim on an
is to transform these 𝑥 values such that the skewness becomes 0, making the distribution appropriate
normal. A surd transformation was chosen because of the data’s positive skew and very small solution
a
values (Www-01.ibm.com, n.d.). A logarithmic transformation was considered; however, this to
challenge
iseuss didn’t provide the same precision of transformation meaning the skewness was never encounter
Ternate satisfactorily close to 0. Therefore, the following transformation function was employed, duringthe
investigat
approaches where the game score is transformed by a scale factor of 1.
weren't 𝑎
taken 1
𝑥 = 𝐺𝑎
The reformed skewness formula calculated skewness when the transformation was applied.
However, in place of the original 𝐺 scores, 𝐺 scores adjusted by the transformation function
were entered. Trial and error was then used to reach a skewness as close as possible to 0.
Explainhowyoureached 𝑥 = 𝐺 0.342
yourvalues
The above formula optimally transformed the game scores such that the probability had a
skewness 0.000154. Although this does not provide a perfectly normal distribution (skewness
of 0) it is close enough to make reasonable predictions based on the distribution. Scores
adjusted using this formula were then multiplied by the probability of their occurrence. This
normalised distribution was then graphed (Fig. 6).

Figure 6: Normalised Distribution of Game Scores

0.12

0.1

0.08
Probability

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

𝐺0.342

Although the distribution visually appears negatively skewed, this is simply because of the
positioning of the mean on the scale.

10
Probability of winning against a Professional Bowler
Until this point, the probability of my game scores has been studied in isolation. However,
this exploration also characterises bowling as a competition, and aims to provide a tool which
professional bowlers could use to calculate their chance of winning in a tournament.
Therefore, a comparison was required between my scores and those of a professional bowler.
Danielle McEwan is an American bowler who ranks first in The World Bowling Tour for
women, based on events in the last two years (Worldbowling.org, 2017). The scores of 31 of
McEwan’s games (Bowl.com, 2017), (Pba.com, 2017) were used (see Appendix iv). Dividing
the sum of the games by 31 provided her mean. The standard deviation was then calculated
using the formula:

∑(𝑋 − 𝑋̅)2
𝑠=√
𝑛

Only game scores are available online meaning McEwan’s probability distribution couldn’t
be constructed as mine was from roll and frame score probabilities. This poses problems
when normalising the data, as many scores would appear to a have a probability of zero,
simply because the sample doesn’t include that game score. This means a tailored
transformation to normalise the data is impossible. Therefore, the assumption was made that
McEwan’s distribution would have a similar skewness to mine and therefore, the same
transformation could be applied.
This limits to some extent this exploration’s accuracy as the probability distribution of
McEwan’s scores may have a very different skewness. This would be expected because
McEwan is more likely to bowl consecutive strikes and spares with associated scoring
bonuses. This would lead to higher scores, and a more negatively skewed probability
distribution of game scores. However, if this exploration’s findings were applied by real
players who were present at competitions, they would have access to their competitor’s roll
scores and thus, would not face this limitation.
Applying this transformation to McEwan’s scores created a probability distribution, very
close to a normal distribution such that one could compare it with the normal distribution of
my scores. A t-test is a statistical test which calculates the probability of difference between
two populations (Investopedia, n.d.). The game score probability distributions were
standardised because the t-test, calculated with the following formula, requires standardised
data:
(𝑥̅1 − 𝑥̅2 ) − (𝜇1 − 𝜇2 )
𝑡=
𝑠2 𝑠2
√ 1+ 2
𝑛1 𝑛2

When examining a single game, 𝑛 (the number of games) is equal to one. 𝑥̅ is the population
mean (average score over all games), whereas 𝜇 is the sample mean. With only one game in
the sample, 𝜇 equals the game score. Therefore, 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 = 0 when a draw occurs. By using
the average and standard deviation of the game scores adjusted through the surd
transformation, both data sets are normalised and this formula produces a 𝑧 score.

11
Let McEwan be Player 1, and me be Player 2
(𝑥 𝑥2 − (𝜇1 − 𝜇2 )
̅̅̅1 − ̅̅̅)
𝑧=
√𝜎12 + 𝜎22

(6.1694 − 4.8312) − (0)

𝑧=
√0.27682 + 0.30962

𝑧 = 3.2222
Using a graphing calculator, this 𝑧 score was applied to find that the cumulative probability
of Player 1’s score being greater or equal to Player 2’s is 0.99936. This is the probability of a
tie, or McEwan winning. Because for normal distributions 𝑃(𝜇1 − 𝜇2 ≥ 0) and
𝑃(𝜇1 − 𝜇2 > 0) are equivalent, 0.99936 is also the probability of McEwan winning.
Therefore, as 𝑤𝑖𝑛1 and 𝑤𝑖𝑛2 are complementary events, the probability that I win is:
𝑃(𝑤𝑖𝑛1 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑤𝑖𝑛2 )
𝑃(𝑤𝑖𝑛1 ) = 1 − 0.99936
𝑃(𝑤𝑖𝑛1 ) = 0.00064
Number of Games to Win
The 𝐸(𝑋) formula calculated the expected number of games played for me to win against
McEwan. This revealed I would need to play 1563 games against McEwan to win one.

𝐸(𝑋)
=𝑛
𝑝
1
= 1562.5
0.00064
Conclusion:
whatwasthemaintakeaway
This exploration has demonstrated how bowling’s objective scoring interacts with skill level
to determine the likelihood of obtaining certain scores. This principle was demonstrated creativity
through the extremes of an amateur and a professional. However, the same process could be
applied to any proficiency level. considerbroaderapplicationsofthe
maths in investigation
yourchance of
I have gained a new appreciation for elite bowlers, as calculating my miniscule
winning against a professional underlined the disparity between our abilities. However, these
howhas
your
results contradict my gut reaction that it would be impossible for me to beat a world ranked understand
athlete. This is a hopeful perspective for aspiring bowlers, that if they compete in enough ofthistop
competitions, the odds may eventually fall in their favour. shifted as
as a resin
ofundertake
Of course, human aspects reduce the reliability of such mathematical explorations. Using thisinvestigal
experimental probabilities, one would think larger samples would provide more accurate
values. But for bowling, the larger the sample, the more one has practiced, and likely, the
more one has improved. Thus, earlier scores may not reflect one’s current skill level. limitation
Therefore, as the sample grows, calculated probabilities become less accurate in representing ofapproa
the present moment. In this way, the human element of sport raises questions of my use of
multiple game statistics without accounting for improvement and could be the subject of
further investigation.

further investigationsuggestion 12
Bibliography
Bowl.com. (2017). 2017 Results. [online] Available at:
https://www.bowl.com/USBC_Masters/Masters_Home/2017_Results/ [Accessed 9
May 2017].
Holton, G. (2014). Value-at-Risk Theory and Practice. 2nd ed. [ebook] Belmont, MA.
Available at: https://www.value-at-risk.net/ [Accessed 7 May 2017].
Investopedia. (n.d.). Standard Deviation. [online] Available at:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standarddeviation.asp [Accessed 8 May 2017].

Investopedia. (n.d.). T-Test. [online] Available at: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-

test.asp [Accessed 7 May 2017].
Macroption.com. (2017). Skewness Formula. [online] Available at:
http://www.macroption.com/skewness-formula/ [Accessed 7 May 2017].
Pba.com. (2017). PBA FireLake Tournament of Champions f-Danielle McEwan. [online]
Available at:
https://www.pba.com/LiveScoring/Qual_Ind_Results.aspx?ContactId=44368&tournam
entId=2113 [Accessed 9 May 2017].
Siegrist, K. (1997). The Normal Distribution. [online] Math.uah.edu. Available at:
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/special/Normal.html [Accessed 20 Jul. 2017].
Tenpin.org.au. (2017). Scoring and Ball Selection. [online] Available at:
http://www.tenpin.org.au/index.php?id=875 [Accessed 8 May 2017].
Worldbowling.org. (2017). World Bowling - Official Website of the International Governing
Body of the Sport of Bowling. [online] Available at: https://www.worldbowling.org/
[Accessed 7 May 2017].

Worldbowling.org. (2017). Women’s WBT Rankings. [online] Available at:

https://www.worldbowling.org/events-results/world-bowling-tour/rankings/wbt-
rankings-women/ [Accessed 7 May 2017].
Www-01.ibm.com. (n.d.). IBM Transforming Variable to Normality for Parametric Statistics
[online] Available at: http://www-01.ibm.com/support/docview.wss?uid=swg21479677
[Accessed 7 May 2017].

13
Appendix i: Frame Score Probability Calculations (𝐹 = 𝑋), 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 10
Frame Score(𝐹 = 𝑃(𝐹 = 𝑋)
𝑋)
0 4
𝑃(𝐹 = 0) = 𝑃(0 ∩ 0) =
294
1 𝑃(𝐹 = 1) = 𝑃(1 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 1)
6 6 2
= + =
294 294 49
2 𝑃(𝐹 = 2) = 𝑃(2 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 2)
1 1 1 1
= + + =
294 294 294 98
3 𝑃(𝐹 = 3) = 𝑃(3 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 3)
4 1 3 4
= +0+ + =
294 294 294 147
4 𝑃(𝐹 = 4) = 𝑃(4 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 4)
2 2 3 1
= + +0+0+ =
294 294 294 42
5 𝑃(𝐹 = 5) = 𝑃(5 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(4 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(0 ∩ 5)
4 2 1 2 8 17
= + +0+ + + =
294 294 294 294 294 294
6 𝑃(𝐹 = 6) = 𝑃(6 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(5 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(4 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(1 ∩ 5) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 6) =
2 1 1 1 1 3 12 1
+ + + + + + =
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 14
7 𝑃(𝐹 = 7) = 𝑃(7 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(6 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(5 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(4 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(2 ∩ 5) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 6) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 7)
4 4 2 2 2 6 17 37
= + +0+ + + + + =
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
8 𝑃(𝐹 = 8) = 𝑃(8 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(7 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(6 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(5 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(4 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(3 ∩ 5) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 6) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 7) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 8)
4 1 4 2 4 8 24 47
= + +0+ + +0+ + + =
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
9 𝑃(𝐹 = 9) = 𝑃(9 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(8 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(7 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(6 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(5 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(4 ∩ 5) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 6) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 7) + 𝑃(1 ∩ 8)
+ 𝑃(0 ∩ 9)
1 4 3 5 12 15 30 5
= + +0+ +0+0+ + + + =
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 21
10 𝑃(𝐹 = 10) = 𝑃(10 ∩ 0) + 𝑃(9 ∩ 1) + 𝑃(8 ∩ 2) + 𝑃(7 ∩ 3) + 𝑃(6 ∩ 4)
+ 𝑃(5 ∩ 5) + 𝑃(4 ∩ 6) + 𝑃(3 ∩ 7) + 𝑃(2 ∩ 8)
+ 𝑃(1 ∩ 9) + 𝑃(0 ∩ 10)
4 1 4 1 9 7 12 30
= +0+0+ +0+ + + + + +
294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
34
=
147

14
 Appendix ii: Probability Distribution of Frame Scores (before dividing through)
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10
P(F=0) 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605 0.013605
P(F=1) 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816 0.040816
P(F=2) 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204 0.010204
P(F=3) 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211 0.027211
P(F=4) 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381 0.02381
P(F=5) 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823 0.057823
P(F=6) 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429 0.071429
P(F=7) 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585 0.12585
P(F=8) 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864 0.159864
P(F=9) 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095 0.238095
P(F=10) 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971 0.02971
P(F=11) 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686 0.020686
P(F=12) 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401 0.003401
P(F=13) 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577 0.014577
P(F=14) 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297 0.010297
P(F=15) 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274 0.019274
P(F=16) 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316 0.029316
P(F=17) 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903 0.04903
P(F=18) 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501 0.052501
P(F=19) 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337 0.057337
P(F=20) 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003353 0.003032 0.048478
P(F=21) 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.003074 0.002111 0.000744
P(F=22) 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000588 0.000347 0.000106
P(F=23) 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.00213 0.001487 0.000531
P(F=24) 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001613 0.001051 0.000354
P(F=25) 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.003331 0.001967 0.000602
P(F=26) 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.004677 0.002991 0.000992
P(F=27) 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.007973 0.005003 0.001629
P(F=28) 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.00913 0.005357 0.001629
P(F=29) 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.01147 0.005851 0.001487
P(F=30) 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.010275 0.004947 0.001062

∑ 𝐹𝑋 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.112453 1.088982 1.112453

15
Appendix iii: Probability Distribution of Game Scores
𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺)
0 7.6484E-20 41 8.8892E-06 81 0.01371661 121 0.01093433
1 2.2945E-18 42 1.2433E-05 82 0.0144918 122 0.01033994
2 3.155E-17 43 1.7237E-05 83 0.01524622 123 0.00975416
3 2.6483E-16 44 2.3689E-05 84 0.01597412 124 0.00918602
4 1.5314E-15 45 3.2275E-05 85 0.01667047 125 0.00864255
5 6.5764E-15 46 4.36E-05 86 0.01733105 126 0.00812683
6 2.2321E-14 47 5.8403E-05 87 0.01795187 127 0.0076375
7 6.3687E-14 48 7.7581E-05 88 0.01852892 128 0.0071699
8 1.6211E-13 49 0.0001022 89 0.01905772 129 0.00671826
9 3.8539E-13 50 0.00013353 90 0.0195338 130 0.00627817
10 8.7774E-13 51 0.00017304 91 0.01995316 131 0.00584821
11 1.9352E-12 52 0.00022239 92 0.02031323 132 0.0054304
12 4.1451E-12 53 0.00028352 93 0.02061323 133 0.00502919
13 8.634E-12 54 0.00035855 94 0.02085415 134 0.00464969
14 1.749E-11 55 0.00044985 95 0.02103773 135 0.00429572
15 3.4488E-11 56 0.00055994 96 0.0211653 136 0.00396852
16 6.6377E-11 57 0.00069154 97 0.02123662 137 0.00366646
17 1.2515E-10 58 0.00084741 98 0.02124978 138 0.00338578
18 2.3179E-10 59 0.00103037 99 0.02120184 139 0.00312198
19 4.2219E-10 60 0.00124325 100 0.02109064 140 0.00287135
20 7.5664E-10 61 0.00148877 101 0.02091643 141 0.00263201
21 1.3347E-09 62 0.0017695 102 0.02068309 142 0.0024041
22 2.3182E-09 63 0.00208775 103 0.02039778 143 0.00218931
23 3.9678E-09 64 0.00244544 104 0.02006948 144 0.00198985
24 6.6978E-09 65 0.00284396 105 0.01970644 145 0.00180733
25 1.1161E-08 66 0.00328418 106 0.01931397 146 0.00164207
26 1.8372E-08 67 0.00376635 107 0.01889326 147 0.00149292
27 2.9883E-08 68 0.00429015 108 0.01844203 148 0.00135758
28 4.8036E-08 69 0.00485473 109 0.01795658 149 0.00123337
29 7.6329E-08 70 0.00545867 110 0.01743475 150 0.00111793
30 1.1993E-07 71 0.00609986 111 0.01687821 151 0.00100981
31 1.8639E-07 72 0.00677556 112 0.01629349 152 0.00090857
32 2.8665E-07 73 0.00748227 113 0.01569088 153 0.00081458
33 4.3638E-07 74 0.00821594 114 0.0150819 154 0.00072856
34 6.5774E-07 75 0.00897213 115 0.01447612 155 0.00065104
35 9.8164E-07 76 0.00974628 116 0.01387873 156 0.00058206
36 1.4508E-06 77 0.01053372 117 0.01328974 157 0.00052102
37 2.1237E-06 78 0.01132977 118 0.01270513 158 0.00046681
38 3.0796E-06 79 0.01212936 119 0.01211949 159 0.00041816
39 4.4245E-06 80 0.01292701 120 0.01152914 160 0.00037388
40 6.2995E-06

16
 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺) 𝐺 𝑃(𝐺)
161 0.00033315 201 9.2916E-07 241 2.1123E-10 281 1.0013E-15
162 0.00029559 202 7.8458E-07 242 1.6727E-10 282 6.2075E-16
163 0.00026116 203 6.5853E-07 243 1.3293E-10 283 3.7962E-16
164 0.00023003 204 5.4876E-07 244 1.0531E-10 284 2.3379E-16
165 0.00020233 205 4.5433E-07 245 8.2656E-11 285 1.4803E-16
166 0.00017804 206 3.7463E-07 246 6.4009E-11 286 9.725E-17
167 0.00015692 207 3.0872E-07 247 4.8873E-11 287 6.5646E-17
168 0.00013854 208 2.551E-07 248 3.6896E-11 288 4.4471E-17
169 0.00012239 209 2.1177E-07 249 2.7703E-11 289 2.9459E-17
170 0.00010801 210 1.7658E-07 250 2.0845E-11 290 1.8682E-17
171 9.501E-05 211 1.4752E-07 251 1.5821E-11 291 1.117E-17
172 8.3199E-05 212 1.2303E-07 252 1.215E-11 292 6.2209E-18
173 7.2501E-05 213 1.0206E-07 253 9.4216E-12 293 3.1902E-18
174 6.2926E-05 214 8.3995E-08 254 7.328E-12 294 1.4856E-18
175 5.4497E-05 215 6.8562E-08 255 5.6689E-12 295 6.1672E-19
176 4.7196E-05 216 5.5607E-08 256 4.3292E-12 296 2.2249E-19
177 4.0946E-05 217 4.4968E-08 257 3.2492E-12 297 6.7152E-20
178 3.5611E-05 218 3.6413E-08 258 2.3956E-12 298 1.5937E-20
179 3.1024E-05 219 2.9624E-08 259 1.7418E-12 299 2.6464E-21
180 2.7023E-05 220 2.4244E-08 260 1.2584E-12 300 2.2986E-22
181 2.3478E-05 221 1.993E-08 261 9.1227E-13
182 2.0305E-05 222 1.6395E-08 262 6.6925E-13
183 1.7464E-05 223 1.3436E-08 263 4.9871E-13
184 1.4945E-05 224 1.0925E-08 264 3.763E-13
185 1.2747E-05 225 8.798E-09 265 2.8493E-13
186 1.0862E-05 226 7.0208E-09 266 2.1411E-13
187 9.2713E-06 227 5.5686E-09 267 1.5814E-13
188 7.937E-06 228 4.4106E-09 268 1.1412E-13
189 6.814E-06 229 3.5056E-09 269 8.0394E-14
190 5.8564E-06 230 2.8052E-09 270 5.551E-14
191 5.0256E-06 231 2.2607E-09 271 3.7916E-14
192 4.2945E-06 232 1.8293E-09 272 2.595E-14
193 3.648E-06 233 1.4788E-09 273 1.8026E-14
194 3.0797E-06 234 1.1879E-09 274 1.2802E-14
195 2.5874E-06 235 9.4431E-10 275 9.2709E-15
196 2.1692E-06 236 7.4198E-10 276 6.7652E-15
197 1.82E-06 237 5.7719E-10 277 4.897E-15
198 1.5319E-06 238 4.4648E-10 278 3.4664E-15
199 1.2944E-06 239 3.4549E-10 279 2.3761E-15
200 1.0967E-06 240 2.6893E-10 280 1.5701E-15

17
Appendix iv: Danielle McEwan’s Game Scores
McEwan: Game Scores
227 214 242
180 179 181
165 242 191
221 182 183
183 244 192
216 193 188
256 233 246
223 214 181
254 171 190
182 186 234

(Bowl.com, 2017), (Pba.com, 2017)

18