University of Gondar

College of Agriculture and Rural Transformation

Rural Livelihood and Food Security

Article Review
On
The Link between Agricultural Production and Population Dynamics in
Ethiopia

By
Chayot Gatdet

Development Theories and Practices Course

Submitted to: Dr. Wuletaw Mekuria

December, 2018
Gondar, Ethiopia

i
 Table of Contents
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1

2. Methods of Review .................................................................................................................... 1

3. Findings and Discussions .......................................................................................................... 2

3.1. The Critical Strengths of the Paper ...................................................................................... 2

3.1.1. Population size and Growth Rate .................................................................................. 2

3.1.2. Components of Population Dynamic ............................................................................. 2

3.1.3. Agricultural Growth Rate .............................................................................................. 2

3.1.4. Theoretical Perspective of Agricultural-population nexus ............................................ 2

3.2. The Critical Drawbacks of the Paper ................................................................................... 3

3.2.1. Shortage of data on Migration ....................................................................................... 3

3.2.2. Lack of data on Growing Population Occupation ......................................................... 3

3.2.3. Shortage of Population Disintegration .......................................................................... 3

3.2.4. Absence of Livestock Production data .......................................................................... 4

3.2.5. Negligence of Growing Population Opportunity........................................................... 5

3.2.6. Inadequate Agriculture-Population Linkage ................................................................. 5

4. Summary .................................................................................................................................... 5

5. Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 6

6. References ................................................................................................................................... 6

ii
Abstract
Most people in Ethiopia depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The sector contributes to the
employment opportunity, GDP, raw materials for industries and foreign exchange in the country.
Still, the population growth is leaving behind the agricultural production. Hence, the main aim of
the review is to evaluate paper entitled; the link between agricultural production and population
dynamic in Ethiopia. The overall figures of this document were collected through document
analysis of the selected study. The article deliberately present the size and rate of population, the
trends of agricultural growth, the rate of fertility and mortality as well as the theoretical
perspectives in the link between agricultural production and population dynamic. As a result,
Ethiopia population is increasing than ever which out weight the agricultural production. The
current paper exposed that the article has failed to present the data on migration, occupation of
growing population, sub-national population change, negligence of population opportunities,
inadequate agriculture-population linkage and livestock data as well. Therefore, the governmental
organization and private organizations ought to take an effort to expand non-farm activities and
promote community awareness on family planning. The paper also articulated further studies that
consider the occupation of the population, migration, sub-national population change, livestock
production and population opportunities to the link of agricultural production and population
dynamic.
Key Word: Agricultural Production, Population Dynamic& Linkage

iii
1. Introduction
Ethiopia is a country where the majority of it is population livelihood depends on agriculture.
Ethiopia with its 79 million (CSA, 2008) people living in a geographical extent of 1.1 million km2
has a GDP of US $ 6.1 billion, 39% of which is contributed by Agriculture, upon which 85% of
the population are dependent for livelihoods. The contribution of the sector to the GDP,
employment, and foreign earnings of the country is about 46.3%, 83% and 90%, respectively,
making it as the incontestable sector in the country development prospect (MoFE, 2006).

Despite this seeming success, nearly 14 million Ethiopians faced starvation in 2002/03 (Samuel,
2004).This is noticeable effect of rapid population growth that declines land holding size, which
accompanied by growing landlessness and this in turn one of the main constraints for achieving
food security in Ethiopia (EEA, 2004).It is also evidenced by AyeleTessema (2005) that the
average holding is diminishing as plots are subdivided to accommodate newly married sons while
the numbers of landless households is also rising). Hence, the existing land is unable to feed the
growing population and thus many Ethiopian remain trapped in vicious circle of poverty, disease
and hunger (Sahlu., 2004)). It was reported, One-third of rural households cannot produce adequate
food to meet their subsistence needs as they cultivate less than half hectares of land per capita
(Demse et al., 2010).

Therefore, the main aim of the paper was to evaluate the strengths and weakness of article on the
link between agricultural production and population dynamic through the trends of the population
and the relationship between agricultural production and population growth.
2. Methods of Review
The paper has employed an intensive literature review of the selected article. The data collected
by that research were explored to critically evaluate the article conducted on the link between
agricultural production and population dynamic in Ethiopia. The large amount of demographic
information of the country were synthesized from reports of CSA, OPHCC, scholars’ studies etc.
Henceforth, the findings were presented by employing thematic method and figure.

1
3. Findings and Discussions
3.1. The Critical Strengths of the Paper
The present paper offers a review of the link between agricultural production and population
dynamic in Ethiopia. In the article, there were numerous potentials strengths observed in the
population dynamic, agricultural production and population dynamic-agricultural production.
These include population size and growth rate, components of the population dynamic, agricultural
growth rate and theoretical perspective.
3.1.1. Population size and Growth Rate
The article had presented the size and the growth rate of the Ethiopia population all over the
periods. It offered the population growth of the country end to end since the early 20thc national
census. It disclosed that Ethiopia is subjected to the overpopulation growth all over the numerous
spans. As explained by prior study, Ethiopia population took 60 years to double from 11.8 million
in 1900 to 23.6 million in 1960, but only 27 years to double again and reach 47.2 million in 1987
(Selome Bekele, 2010).
3.1.2. Components of Population Dynamic
The paper had provided the growth rate of fertility and mortality in Ethiopia in several years. The
fertility and mortality growth rate in Ethiopia were decreasing. Therefore, the paper has been
elucidated that the rapid increase of the Ethiopia population was the shape decline of fertility rate
and mortality rate of the population. depiction to the previous report, the total fertility rate (TFR)
has declined over the year in Ethiopia from it is peak of 7.7 children per women in 1990 to 5.9 in
2000 and 5.4 in 2005; the under-five mortality rate has declined from 166/1000 live birth in 1996-
2000 to 123/1000 live birth in 2001-2005 (Oladel et al.,2010).
3.1.3. Agricultural Growth Rate
The paper provided the trends of agricultural growth rate in Ethiopia. It has been depicted the
Gross Domestic Product of Agriculture throughout a range of regimes in Ethiopia government. It
is thus guaranteed that there was decline of agricultural growth in the Ethiopia and exaggerated by
population growth. According to the World Bank report between 1980 and 1987, agricultural
production dropped at an annual rate of 2.1%, while the population growth at annual rate of 2.4%.
3.1.4. Theoretical Perspective of Agricultural-population nexus
The study discussed the theoretical perspectives of the agriculture-population nexus. It showed
that Malthus and Boserup theories contradict toward each other. As reported, Malthus considers

2
the population growth as an adversary to the agricultural production, whereas Boserup notice the
population growth as an opportunity.
3.2. The Critical Drawbacks of the Paper
The article entitled the link between agricultural production and population dynamic has several
limitations. It had been failed to take into account some most central point in the study and then.
These drawbacks include shortage of data on migration, disintegration of the growing population,
absence of occupation of the growing population, lack of livestock production data, inadequate
agriculture-population linkage and negligence of population opportunity.
3.2.1. Shortage of data on Migration
Migration is one of the important determinants of population dynamic in Ethiopia. The article
however, oversights the contribution of migration to the Ethiopia population change. In fact, the
movement of the people within or across the country is inevitable as the labor turn into scarce.
Now a day, Ethiopia is experiencing the rapid increase of internal and international migration for
the pursuit of better life. This definitely contributes to the population dynamic as well as the
agricultural production through remittance in form of insurance during shock or stress. The
migration statistics report in the 1984 and 1994 censuses stated that out of the total population
enumerated by the two censuses, 16.4% and 14.1%, respectively, were reported to be migrants
(PHCC, 1991; 1999).
3.2.2. Lack of data on Growing Population Occupation
The record on the growing population overriding source of income provides a plentiful prospect
to determine the number of population relying on the agricultural sector a moment. In recent times,
majority of the Ethiopian are being engaged in non-agricultural activities. It has been speculated
by some studies that, the increase of urban and the decrease of rural population could trigger
agrarian transition through augmenting labor productivity, shift from heavy reliance on agriculture
to non-agricultural activities, and emergency of other economic subsector like service and
manufacturing/agro-processing spurs (Reta Hailu, 2016).
3.2.3. Shortage of Population Disintegration
The disintegration of national population growth into regional population is indispensable. This is
because; regions are where a large growing population depends on agriculture. The result of this
article however, had primarily given emphasis to national population dynamic unaccompanied.
The national population growth rate is recently exceeded by some regional population growth rate.

3
In 1994 country population and housing census, the population of Ethiopia was 53 million. When
the national population size was disintegrated into regional population, Oromia, Amhara and
SNNP respectively, were the largest populated regions in Ethiopia. In 1994-2007 censuses
however, Gambella which was the 2nd smallest populous regions in Ethiopia was the largest
population growth rate (4.1%).
On the other hand, the population size of Harari region was 0.1 million, with 2.6% population
growth rate which is the same as National population growth rate in 1994-2007. By the same token,
Amhara region which was the second largest population size in all three censuses was the smallest
population growth rate (1.7%) in 1994-2007.

30000000
Amhara
25000000
Gambella

20000000 Somali
SNNP
15000000
Oromia

10000000 Harari
Tigray
5000000
Afar

0 Benchang/Gu
1994 2007

(Source: CSA, 1994 & Britannica Book, 1999)

Figure 1: Population size by regional states

3.2.4. Absence of Livestock Production data

Livestock is the integral component of the agriculture sector. It is substantial contribution in the
food production as well as the growth of the country economy is comprehensible. This paper had
underestimated the central roles of livestock agriculture-population growth nexus. Agreeing with
previous studies, livestock contributes 12% and 33% of the total and agricultural GDP,
respectively; and provides livelihood for 65% of the population (Ayele et al 2003).

4
3.2.5. Negligence of Growing Population Opportunity
The population growth is not often a problem to the agricultural production. It also creates the
opportunities for agricultural production. The growing populations have exceptional ability to
produce the agricultural technologies in order to increase the productivity. The article has
predominantly overlooked the positive influence of the population growth on the agriculture
production. Several studies reported that population growth can be a threat or an opportunity
depending on economy growth, expansion of infrastructure, technological innovation, settlement
patterns and potential of environment (Awulachew S.B, Erkossa T, Balchay, 2011).
3.2.6. Inadequate Agriculture-Population Linkage
The article has emphasized merely the direct relationship between agriculture and population.
Nevertheless, agriculture doesn’t have straight connection with population growth. The growing
population increase their demand on cultivated land thereby, fulfilling the needs. This demand of
land may reduce the land productivity and in turn, decrease the agricultural production of the
country. According to Yenesew (2015) finding, the impact of population growth is manifested on
farm size; and it leads to high land fragmentation thereby small landholdings and finally reduces
productivity. Thus, the article has been criticized by failing to provide the yearly data growing
population, cultivated land and productivity of agriculture in the country.
4. Summary
Agriculture is the foundation and the leading economic activity in Ethiopia. It provides food,
employment, raw material, GDP and foreign exchange benefits in the country. Currently, the
debate on the interaction between agriculture and population growth is widespread. Thus, the main
aim of this paper was to evaluate the article entitled the link between agricultural production and
population dynamic in Ethiopia.

The article synthesis the Ethiopia population size as well as the growth rate through several
decades. Based on the article result, there were high increase of Ethiopia populations annually. In
addition, the fertility and mortality rate of the Ethiopia population were discussed. The article has
showed that there was shape decrease of fertility rate and mortality rate which in other way
contribute to the Ethiopia population dynamic. Moreover, the article has provided the progresses
of agricultural growth over different periods in Ethiopia. Annually, the growth domestic products
of agriculture is decreasing according to the reviewed article. Furthermore, the article has
presented the theoretical perspective of the agriculture-population nexus. The two complementary

5
arguments on agriculture-population nexus were offered to the debate. As a result, the rapid
increase of Ethiopia population growth is incompatible with agricultural production.

On the contrary, the study has made limited attempts in some study issues. There were shortage of
data on migration, growing population occupations, livestock production, sub-national population,
negligence of population opportunities, and inadequate agricultural-population linkage.

5. Recommendations
The governmental organizations and NGO should expand the non-farm activities thereby creating
job opportunities for the growing population. The governmental agencies also need to promote the
community awareness on the area of family planning. The paper also articulated further studies
that consider the occupation of the growing population, migration, sub-national population change
and livestock production to the link of agricultural production and population dynamic.

6. References
Association), E. E. (2004). Land tenure and agricultural development in Ethiopia: AA,
EEC/EEPRI.

Ayele Solomon, A. W. (2003). Livestock Marketing in Ethiopia: A review of structure,

performance and development initiatives; Socio-economic and population development
research.

Bekele, S. (2010). Ethiopia environmental Review Forum for environment: population dynamic
and environment in Ethiopia; an overview.

CSA. (2008). Summary statistical draft report of national population statistics: Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia.

Demisie C, B. A. (2010). Ethiopia Agricultural Policies and investment framework (PIK); In:
Ministry of agriculture and rural development. AA, Ethiopia.

H., S. (2004). Populations, development and environment in Ethiopia; ECSP report.

Hailu, R. (2016). Population Dynamism and Agrarian Transformation in Ethiopia.

MoFED. (2006). Building on progress a plan for accelerated and sustained development to end
poverty.

6
Oladel. (2010). Population Transition development; a country case study. center for global
development working group on UNFPA leadership.

PHCC. (1991). The 1984 population and housing census of ethiopia: analytical report at national
level; population and housing census commision. transitional government of ethiopia.

PHCC. (1999). The 1994 population and housing census of ethiopia result at country level.
analytical report: population and housing census commision, central statistical authority,
federal democratic republic of ethiopias.

Tesema, A. (2005). Households Livelihood Adaptation in a high population Density areas in

Ethiopia: The case of Wolaita Zone. A PhD proposal in Development Studies sumitted to
the center for international environment and development(NORAGRIC).

Sewnet, Y. (2015). Causes and Coping Mechanisms of Food insecurity in Rural Ethiopia.
Agriculture and Biology Journal of North America. 123-133