ERM Module Section 2: Introduction to Enterprise Risk Management
Ask An Actuary: Derivatives
Question Actuary 4 Response How have derivatives affected the actuarial profession? Financial derivatives have caught most actuaries trained We asked leading actuaries to comment and received a before 1995 with a limited skill set. This was made variety of answers. Responses are split between positive worse as much of the material covering derivatives changes, negative changes and changes in professional through the late ‘90s was incorrect. membership. Derivative mathematics can take two forms, similar to Actuary 1 Response electronics engineering. In electronics, if you learn to Derivatives spurred the development of the mathemat- accept the concept of impedance, you can design very ics of pricing options in liquid markets. Life insurance basic circuits. Impedance is an algebraic equation that contracts have always had embedded options and actu- happens to be a special transform of a relatively com- aries now have a mathematical toolkit to examine costs plex differential equation which only an electronics en- and risks associated with them. gineer would fully understand. Along with the analytical tools come tools that can While the algebraic solutions can be done by bright high sometimes be used to engineer (that is, lay off or trans- school students, their circuits would not be able to han- form) the embedded options in the portfolio of insur- dle complex and extreme events. Only the true expert, ance risks. the electronics engineer, would be able to design his/her circuit to withstand these extremes. Actuary 2 Response New valuation methods (e.g., insurance op- This analogy holds within the actuarial community tions, corporate debt). (many would argue that this includes Wall Street quants New products relying on option based hedging strate- as well). Most actuaries are taught only the very basic gies (variable annuity guarantees). methods to design and model derivatives. Only a few Innovative hedging and reinsurance techniques. would be characterized as expert in the design of op- Drivers in a changed capital market environment. tions sold within insurance products. Improved stochastic modeling techniques. Those who ignore the derivatives market and the infor- mation it provides are more likely to miss a major risk. Actuary 3 Response Derivatives are not perfect, nor are practitioners, but the Provides more tools to reduce asset-liability manage- additional data interpreted by experts can help a firm ment risk. make better decisions. Allows companies to market products with appealing guarantees to policyholders without having to increase the company risk profile.
Actuary 5 Response Actuary 7 Response The pricing theory that came out of derivatives thrust I think that the biggest effect has been on the career martingale transforms into the spotlight in the name of paths available to people interested and capable in both Q measures. This produced a new pricing paradigm and math and finance. There are many Wall Street quants also a new class of risk measures - the distortion meas- who might have become actuaries if there was no need ures. Although there have been papers in these areas, to apply sophisticated math to derivative valuation. the effect on actual practice has been depressingly slow. People will have differing opinions about whether that is a good or bad thing, but it is definitely different than The value of risk transfer has also been given more at- it would have been otherwise. tention as risk management has been more available and formalized. This has produced new ideas about the value of reinsurance, for example. A lot of this has come from financial economists, but there is also an actuarial connection to the de Finetti Gerber-Shiu approach to optimum dividends, which is optimum capital. Several authors have extended this to optimum reinsurance jointly with optimum capital, e.g., John Major. Actuary 6 Response Credit default swaps (CDS) are the poster child for the downside of derivatives. In my opinion, derivatives en- abled the "opportunity" to usurp the responsibility of understanding our risks in favor of engineering them away by calibrating models to financial market prices. The problem is that markets prove over and over again to be bad estimators of the real risks. Markets are great at looking around at the current price, accepting the price as correct and proliferating that price in new and bigger ways, never noticing that everyone got to the price by accepting previous prices as appropriate. Market-consistent risk management, centered on deriva- tive prices, is not only dangerous to a company, it's dan- gerous to whole industries. If everyone is managing risk in exactly the same way, then when it blows up everyone is in the blast. So, I feel that the development of derivatives has left ac- tuaries with: (1) The added responsibility of challenging the prevail- ing price of any risk. (2) The added responsibility of considering and manag- ing a broader presence of counterparty risk. While my life would be easier without derivatives, all is not negative. Derivatives do have a good limited use in capital man- agement for hedging some targeted tail risk. This allows companies to accept risk while managing their long-term success. In a world full of derivatives, stochastic model- ing to analyze the tail risk becomes much more impor- tant for actuaries.