Simulation 2.1

15/01/2021
Simulation
IB3200
What is
Conceptual
Modelling?
Dr Katy Hoad
http://www.wbs.ac.uk/about/person/Kathryn-Hoad/
Aim for lecture 2:

To understand how to develop a conceptual model for a
Discrete Event Simulation.
Real world
(problem)
The Simulation
Solutions/
understanding Modeling Conceptual
model
Process
Computer
model
2
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15/01/2021
Aim for lecture 2:

Real world
(problem)
The Simulation
Solutions/
understanding Modeling Conceptual
model
Process
Computer
model
3
Aim for lecture 2:

Real world
problem
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15/01/2021
Aim for lecture 2:

Conceptual
model
Real world
problem
What is a Conceptual Model?

 ‘A conceptual model is a non-software specific
description of the computer simulation model that is
to be developed, describing the objectives, inputs,
outputs, content, assumptions and simplifications
of the model.’ (Robinson, 2004)
 Thus the conceptual model defines what is to be

represented and how it is to be represented in the
computer simulation model.
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Requirements of a Conceptual Model
 Validity: sufficient accuracy for purpose

 Credibility: believed by the client
 Utility: useful (e.g. ease-of-use, flexibility,
run-speed and visual display)
 Feasibility: possible within the constraints of
time, data, knowledge and modeller skill
Developing the conceptual model
Problem
situation
Define
Modelling
objectives
Make simplifications & assumptions

Inputs Outputs
Experimental Simulation Responses /

Factors Model Results
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Develop an
understanding of
Problem
the ‘real world’
situation
problem situation
Define
Modelling
objectives

Inputs Outputs


Develop an
understanding of
Problem
situation
problem situation
Define
...the purpose of
Modelling
the model and
objectives
simulation project
Inputs Outputs

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Develop an
understanding of
Problem
situation
problem situation
Define
...the purpose of
Modelling
the model and
objectives
simulation project
Inputs Outputs
…which model Simulation
Experimental
elements can be Responses /
altered to effect a
change in the model
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11

Develop an
understanding of
Problem
situation
problem situation
Define
...the purpose of
Modelling
the model and
objectives
simulation project
Inputs Outputs
Define components
…which model Simulation
Experimental
elements can be and connections Responses /
Factors Model
represented in Results
altered to effect a
change in the model model
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Develop an
understanding of
Problem
situation
problem situation
Define
...the purpose of
Modelling
the model and
objectives
simulation project
Inputs Outputs
Define components
…which model Simulation Define results
Experimental and connections Responses /
elements can be of model that
Factors Model in
represented Results
altered to effect a allow you to…
model
change in the model
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Elements of a Conceptual Model

1. Objectives: the purpose of the model and modelling
project.
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project.
2. Inputs: those elements of the model that can be altered
to effect an improvement in, or better understanding of,
the real world (the experimental factors).
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project.
3. Outputs: the results from simulation runs.
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project.
4. Content: the components that are represented in the
model and their interconnections.
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project.
5. Assumptions made when there are either uncertainties
or beliefs about the real world being modelled.
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project.
6. Simplifications incorporated in the model to reduce the
complexity.
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project.
6. Simplifications incorporated in the model to reduce the
complexity.
7. Data requirements of model
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Process of developing the conceptual model

1. Understand the problem situation
2. Determine the modeling and project objectives
Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
5. model content (scope and level of detail)
6. simplifications and assumptions
7. data requirements
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Coming Next…
• Understanding the problem
situation.
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Simulation
IB3200
Conceptual modelling
Understanding
the problem
situation
Dr Katy Hoad
23
Conceptual Modelling Process

2. Determine the modeling & project objectives
Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Understanding the problem situation

• Important to listen to the client, but to what
extent?
• May not have an understanding of the real

cause of the problem
• In complex problem situations different
people have different views/beliefs about the
problem.
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The problem situation may not be well

understood, nor expressed...
For example, in a study of maintenance operators ...
Each worker / manager gave a different explanation of
working practice!
What do you do...? How does that

work...? What happens next..?
When does that occur...?
And observation of workers

showed yet another different
working practice!
Not unusual in systems where human behaviour effects the

performance of the system. 26
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The problem situation may not be well

understood, nor expressed...
For example, in a study of a phone helpline...
Top management believed understaffing was
the cause of the poor level of customer service.
But the simulation showed that extra staff had little

effect.
It turned out to be the business process that was the

cause of the problem.
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Need to actively seek out the truth...

• Observe the system if possible
• Talk to the ‘right’ people
– Ask searching questions
– Organise interviews, group
meetings, workshops,...
• Identify stakeholders’ (employees,
customers, suppliers,…) needs
• Use their language
• Look for new ideas
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Can use formal problem structuring methods

For example,
– Soft systems methodology
– Cognitive mapping
– Causal loop diagrams
Example further reading:

Kotiadis, K. 2007. “Using soft systems methodology to determine the simulation study objectives”.
Journal of Simulation 1: 215-222. Available online through Uni library.
Lehaney, B and Paul, RJ. 1996. “The use of soft systems methodology in the development of a
simulation of out-patients services at Watford General Hospital.” Journal of the Operational
Research Society, 47: 864-870. Available online through Uni library.
Business dynamics systems thinking and modelling for a complex world / John D Sterman, 2000.
Available at Main Library as print book (HD30.2.S7835) + 2 more.
Rational analysis for a problematic world revisited: problem structuring methods for complexity,
uncertainty and conflict; edited by J. Rosenhead & J. Mingers, 2001. Available at Main Library as print
book (HD30.23.R38) + 8 more. 29
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Could use simulation itself as a problem structuring

method...
– Use rough and quick simulation models –
constructed in front of clients
– Use models as a means of debating and
developing an understanding of the problem
situation
– Modern VIS is a useful tool.
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Example: Bank of
Granite
Problem situation:
Upper management are concerned
about their low customer service
ratings.
Over 70% of customer complaints
are about the amount of time they
have to wait to be seen by a bank
cashier.
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Example: Bank of Granite

BANK LAYOUT:
ATM
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Problem situation:
Some questions that could be asked to better assess the
current problem, possible causes and possible remedies
and therefore help construct the conceptual model...
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Problem situation:
o How long do customers currently wait for ?
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Problem situation:
o When does the waiting problem occur (peak times...)?
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Problem situation:
o Where exactly does this queuing occur?
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Problem situation:
o What do you ideally want to reduce the wait time to?
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Problem situation:
o What resources / layout changes etc... are you willing to
consider?
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Problem situation:
consider?
o What sort of historical data do you already have available?
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Problem situation:
consider?
o What sort of historical data do you already have available?
o Can I come observe the bank, collect data, talk to staff...?
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Large queues for the cashiers occur in the lobby at peak times
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Ideally they’d like most customers to wait less than 3 mins
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Options the bank are considering include...
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Adding extra ATM in lobby
Making a 3rd cashier counter
Employing more cashier staff
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They have some data including: peak times, cost estimates,...
Adding extra ATM in lobby
Data available for type and

number of transactions
Making a 3rd cashier counter
Employing more cashier staff
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Coming Next…
• How to define the modelling
objectives.
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Simulation
IB3200
Determining
Modelling
Objectives
Dr Katy Hoad
47

Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Determining Modelling Objectives
The objective is never to build a model!
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Determining Express objectives in terms of...

Modelling • Achievement: What the client
Objectives hopes to achieve: increase
production, improve customer
service, etc...
For example (Case Studies | Simul8 Simulation Software)

• Chrysler - Meet increased customer demand for new car models
• Louisiana Department of Health (DOH) - Test the robustness of
hospital air evacuation plans.
• Gatwick Airport – Provide a better customer experience by
improving the efficiency of passenger services.
• Denver Police Department (DPD) Crime Laboratory - Identify
optimum areas for investment to improve turnaround times. 50
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Achievement and...
Determining • Performance: Specify measures of
Modelling performance… How do you know
Objectives when you’ve achieved your aim? How
do you know if one change is ‘better’
than another / current system?
e.g. Increase production by 40%, decrease waiting times
so 90% of customers wait less than 5mins,…

• Chrysler - Meet increased customer demand for new car models,
by improving daily production rate from 930 to 969 units, by
increasing the line speed at Trim Chassis Final (TCF).
• Gatwick Airport - Improve the efficiency of passenger services,
by minimizing queue times while maximizing throughput from
customer arrival to departure.
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Achievement and...

optimum areas for investment to improve turnaround times, in
particular to eliminate the existing backlog, and achieve target
turnaround times of 7 days (rush jobs) and 45 days (all other
case types).
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Achievement and...

• Louisiana Department of Health (DOH) - Test the robustness of
hospital air evacuation plans.
 What is meant by robustness here? What would constitute a
failure of the plans or a success? – in terms of patients
evacuated within a certain time, cost, etc..?
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What can be changed to achieve the desired

Determining achievement and performance?
Modelling e.g. Employing more staff, changing staff
Objectives rosters, types of process change, extra
equipment,…
• When it comes to building the model,
what factors will you want to experiment
with to try and achieve the objective?

• Chrysler - Meet increased customer demand for new car
models, by improving daily production rate from 930 to 969
units, by increasing the line speed at Trim Chassis Final
(TCF). Consider reducing cycle times at any machines causing
bottlenecks in the system (increasing staff, altering machine
process).
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equipment,…

• Gatwick Airport - Improve the efficiency of passenger services,
by minimizing queue times while maximizing throughput from
customer arrival to departure. Investigate changes in security
area design (number of lanes, new technology), personnel
numbers and roster.
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equipment,…

optimum areas for investment to improve turnaround times, in
particular to eliminate the existing backlog, and achieve target
turnaround times of 7 days (rush jobs) and 45 days (all other
case types). Investigate effect of investing in more lab
equipment and/or more staff (analysts, lab technicians,
supervisors, staff assistants).
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Constraints?
Determining • Specify any constraints within which
Modelling the recommendations must work,
Objectives
For example,
– Range for experimental factors?
– Budget?
– Space availability (capacity)?
– Regulations? e.g. Health and Safety
regulations, Hygiene rules, GDPR,…
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Example: Bank of
Granite
Modelling Objective:
• Achievement: To improve
customer service and hence
reduce number of complaints by...
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Example: Bank of
Granite
• Achievement: To improve
customer service and hence
reduce number of complaints by...
• Performance: …reducing waiting
times for customers waiting to
see cashiers at the cashier
counters, so that 95% of
customers wait less than 3
minutes to be seen.
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Example: Bank of
Granite
• Changes: Investigate the effect of
increasing the number of ATMs,
counters and cashier staff.
• Constraints:
– Space for maximum of 3 counters in
total.
– Budget for up to 3 more cashiers.
– Space and budget for a maximum of 2
ATMs in total.
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Coming Next…
• How to define the project
objectives.
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Simulation
IB3200
Determining
General Project
Objectives
Dr Katy Hoad
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Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Determining General Project Objectives

• Time Scale for project – How long each part?
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• Nature of model use, i.e. How is the model to be
used and by who?
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used and by who?
– Flexibility: The more a model may need to be
changed during or after a study the more flexible it
needs to be.
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used and by who?
needs to be.
– Run speed: especially important if lots of experiments
need to be run
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used and by who?
needs to be.
need to be run
– Visual display: No display → 2D → 3D anima on ?
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used and by who?
needs to be.
need to be run
– Ease of use: Do clients need to interact directly with
model? – consider user interface.
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used and by who?
needs to be.
need to be run
– Ease of use: Do clients need to interact directly with
model? – consider user interface.
– Will there be any reuse of model/components?
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General Project Objectives :
• Time Scale – Produce
recommendations within 3 weeks
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• Nature of model use:
– Flexibility: Model shouldn’t
need to be changed beyond
varying the stated experimental
factors (cashiers, desks, ATMs).
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– Flexibility: Model shouldn’t
need to be changed beyond
varying the stated experimental
factors (cashiers, desks, ATMs).
– Run speed: Number of possible
scenarios reasonably small, so
run time not critical (but must
align with time scale).
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– Visual display: 2D model
adequate but must be
recognisable as bank to
facilitate client buy-in.
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– Ease of use: Clients will not
interact directly with model so
separate interface not
necessary.
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– Ease of use: Clients will not
interact directly with model so
separate interface not
necessary.
– No foreseen reuse of model or
components.
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Coming Next…
• Designing the DES model:
– How to determine and define
the model inputs.
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Simulation
IB3200
Design the model:

Identify the
model inputs
Dr Katy Hoad
78
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Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Identifying the Inputs to the model
• Inputs or Experimental factors are model data

that can be changed in order to achieve the
model objectives.
• Choice of input is therefore driven by model
objectives.
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Identifying the Inputs to the model

• Inputs can be
– quantitative (e.g. number of staff)
– or qualitative (e.g. branching rules, queuing rules)
• Should also state range over which inputs will be
varied (e.g. min/max staff on a shift)
• Normally client has some control over experimental
factors...
• ...but can be useful to vary inputs over there is little to
no control (e.g. demand / arrival rates) → can aid
understanding of system or help plan for possible
future events.
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• Achievement: To improve customer
service and hence reduce number of
complaints by...
• Performance: …reducing waiting times
for customers waiting to see cashiers at
the cashier counters, so that 95% of
customers wait less than 3 minutes to
be seen.
• Constraints: Space and budget for…
– Max of 3 counters in total.
– Max of 3 more cashiers.
– Max of 2 ATMs in total.
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What are the model inputs

(experimental factors) ?
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• Number of ATMs (1-2)
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• Number of cashier counters
(2-3)
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• Number of cashier counters
(2-3)
• Number of extra cashier staff
(1-3)
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Coming Next…
– How to determine and define
the model outputs.
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Simulation
IB3200
Design the model:

Identify the
model outputs
Dr Katy Hoad
88
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Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Identifying the Outputs of the model
• Two purposes:
– Identify whether model objective(s) achieved
– Identify reasons why objective(s) not achieved
• Should be able to directly identify output(s) from

model objective(s)
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• Achievement: To improve customer
service and hence reduce number of
complaints by...
• Performance: …reducing waiting times
for customers waiting to see cashiers at
the cashier counters, so that 95% of
customers wait less than 3 minutes to
be seen.
• Constraints: Space and budget for…
– Max of 3 counters in total.
– Max of 3 more cashiers.
– Max of 2 ATMs in total.
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What are the model outputs
(responses / KPIs) ?
To determine achievement of objective:

• % of customers waiting less than
3 minutes for cashiers.
• % of customers waiting less than
3 minutes for ATMs.
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What are the model outputs
(responses / KPIs) ?
To identify reasons for failure to meet

objective:
• Bar chart of waiting time for each
customer in the queue(s).
• Summary statistics (e.g. min, max,
mean, median, IQR, variance,…) of
waiting times.
• Time series of average queue size.
• Utilisation of staff.
• Utilisation of ATM 1 and 2.
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Coming Next…
– Determining the content of
the DES model.
– What is the appropriate
scope of the model?
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15/01/2021
Simulation
IB3200
Design the model:

Scope of the DES
Model?
Dr Katy Hoad
95

Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Determining Model Scope
Decide which real system components

need to be included in the model so that
the effect of varying the inputs
can be measured by the outputs
in order to determine whether the model
objectives have been achieved or not.
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Determining Model Scope

• 4 main types of model component:
1. Entities: the things that flow through the system, doing
the activities and queuing, e.g. customers, patients, parts,
phone calls, information, vehicles,...
2. Activities: things the entities do / or what is done to them,
e.g. exercising, paying, putting petrol in a vehicle, getting
coffee from a machine, entering data into a computer,
being painted,...
3. Queues: the potential waiting between activities, e.g.
waiting areas, physical queues of people, conveyer belts,
buffers, in/out trays, computer storage,...
4. Resources: needed so activities can happen, e.g. staff,
equipment, desks, machines, computers,…
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Summary of Modelling Objective,
Inputs and Outputs:
• To reduce waiting times for cashier
customers, so that 95% of customers
wait less than 3 minutes to be seen.
• Inputs:
– Number of ATMs (1-2)
– Number of cashier counters (2-3)
– Number of extra cashier staff (1-3)
• KPIs: % of customers waiting less than
3 minutes for cashier/ATM service.
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Model Scope – what real system

components should be included /
excluded in the DES model?
Component Include/ Justification

exclude
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Entities:
Cashier customers Include Flow through cashier system
Other customers (e.g. Do not interact with cashier

Exclude
mortgage, insurance,…) system
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Activities:
Activity involving cashier
Cashier service Include
customers and inputs (cashiers)
Activity involving cashier
ATM service Include
customers and inputs (ATMs)
Other bank services Do not interconnect with

Exclude
(e.g. mortgage,…) cashier/ATM service.
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Queues:
Q for Cashier service Include Required for outputs (KPIs).
Q for ATM service Include Required for outputs (KPIs).
Q for other services

Exclude Not required for outputs (KPIs).
(e.g. mortgage,…)
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Example:
Bank of Granite
exclude
Resources:
Cashier staff Include Input (Experimental factor)
Cashier desks Include Input (Experimental factor)
ATMs Include Input (Experimental factor)
Not inputs. Do not interconnect

Other Bank staff Exclude
with cashier/ATM service.
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Coming Next…
– What is the appropriate level
of detail in the components?
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Simulation
IB3200
Design the model:

Model contents –
level of detail?
Dr Katy Hoad
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Design the model:
3. model inputs
4. model outputs
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Determining Level of Detail

• Decide what depth of detail is needed to be included for
each component in the model.
• For example, getting served at a fast food restaurant
involves several possible activities:
– Ordering, paying, cooking the order, assembly of order.
• Is it necessary to model all, some or none of these?
Order Pay Cook Assemble
X1 min X2 min X3 min X4 min

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Order & Pay Cook & Assemble
X5 min X6 min
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Service
X8 min
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• Explain how have you chosen to model ‘how things work
in the real system’?
• For example:
– Entities: Groups/Individuals? Arrival pattern? Attributes?
Routing? Display style? Etc…
– Queues: Discipline? Multiple / single server? Capacities?
Dwell time? Baulking? Reneging? Routing? Etc…
– Activities: Duration? Resources required? Routing? Etc…
– Resources: Types? Quantities? Where required?
Absenteeism? Roster? Etc…
For more detail see e-book: ‘Conceptual Modeling for Discrete-Event

Simulation’, Edited by S.Robinson et al., CRC Press 2010, page 90, table 4.2,
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Level of detail – what details about

the components will be included /
excluded in the DES model?
Component Detail Include/ Comment

exclude
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Entities:
Each entity
Cashier No significant grouping
represents one Include
customers observed.
individual
Inter-arrival times
Arrival pattern Include sampled from
probability distribution.
Attribute: Exclude Represented in service
Transaction type time.
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Example:
Bank of Granite
exclude
Activities:
Cashier Service Include Modelled as distribution, account
service time for variability in performance and
transaction type.
Resource Include Dedicated cashier.
Roster Include Experimental factor to
accommodate on/off peak periods.
Routing Include Entities go to first free activity from
single queue. Exit model when
activity complete. 114
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Example:
Bank of Granite
exclude
Activities:
ATM service Service time Include Modelled as distribution,
account for variability in
transaction type.
Resource Include Dedicated ATM.
Roster Exclude Always available
Routing Include Entities go to first free activity
from single queue. Exit model
when activity complete.
Breakdowns Exclude Not a significant problem.115
115
Example:
Bank of Granite
exclude
Queues:
Q for cashier Quantity Include Multiple server queue.
service
Capacity Exclude Assume no limit.
Dwell time Exclude No dwell time.
Routing Include Percentage routing from
entry.
Queue discipline Include FIFO
Baulking & Exclude Assumed not significant.
reneging 116
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Example:
Bank of Granite
exclude
Queues:
Q for ATM Quantity Include Multiple server queue.
service
Capacity Exclude Assume no limit.
Dwell time Exclude No dwell time.
Routing Include Percentage routing from
entry.
Queue discipline Include FIFO
Baulking & Exclude Assumed not significant.
reneging 117
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Resources:
Cashiers Quantity Include Dedicated – one per
cashier activity.
Roster Include Experimental factor.
Skill level Exclude Included in service time
distribution.
Absenteeism Exclude Not significant problem.
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Example:
Bank of Granite

exclude
Resources:
ATMs Quantity Include Dedicated – one per ATM
activity.
Roster Exclude Always available.
Skill level Exclude No variance.
Breakdown Exclude Not significant problem.
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Coming Next…
– Making simplifications and
assumptions in DES
modelling.
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60

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15/01/2021

Aim for lecture 2:

Aim for lecture 2:

Aim for lecture 2:

Aim for lecture 2:

What is a Conceptual Model?

 Thus the conceptual model defines what is to be

Requirements of a Conceptual Model

 Validity: sufficient accuracy for purpose

Developing the conceptual model

Make simplifications & assumptions

Experimental Simulation Responses /

Developing the conceptual model

Make simplifications & assumptions

Experimental Simulation Responses /

Developing the conceptual model

Experimental Simulation Responses /

Developing the conceptual model

Developing the conceptual model

Developing the conceptual model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Elements of a Conceptual Model

Process of developing the conceptual model

Conceptual Modelling Process

Understanding the problem situation

• May not have an understanding of the real

The problem situation may not be well

What do you do...? How does that

And observation of workers

Not unusual in systems where human behaviour effects the

The problem situation may not be well

But the simulation showed that extra staff had little

It turned out to be the business process that was the

Need to actively seek out the truth...

Can use formal problem structuring methods

Example further reading:

Could use simulation itself as a problem structuring

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Example: Bank of Granite

Adding extra ATM in lobby

Making a 3rd cashier counter

Employing more cashier staff

Example: Bank of Granite

Adding extra ATM in lobby

Data available for type and

Making a 3rd cashier counter

Employing more cashier staff