A simple way to study the global population growth

Indrajit Deya, Sujit Kumar Deb*

a
Ektal D. M. High School, Paschim Medinipur, W.B. India
E-mail: indrajit.physio@gmail.com
b
Department of Mathematics, Midnapore College( Autonomous), W. B. India
E-mail: skdemamo2008.com@gmail.com

Abstract
In the present scenario, the global population growth is a challenging factor of human race.
Several agencies (Govt., non-Govt.) from different countries are surveying each and every year
for that purpose. Here, we have discussed the ultimate neat global population (NGP) growth in
the light of sustainable development of the human species. Also the situations of end of
growth have been explained. Finally the effectiveness of the population demand is illustrate
from conventional graphical model.
Key words: Global Population, Growth rate, Convex Growth rate, Sustainable development.

1. Introduction
The basic challenges of human civilization lie in its overloaded population growth. Several
agencies are experiencing to survey their yearly ended report with a hurdle manner for the
benefit of their own existence in this globe. Agencies like World Resources Institute, the
World Bank, UNEP and UNDP etc. have been working a lot to quantify the current global
population under several dimensions. A demographic transition and beyond that was nicely
developed by Bose ( 2006). Meadows et al. ( 2004) explained an estimation over population
growth for next 30 years, Miller(1999) studied the principle of living environment and its
solution. Cohen (1995) analyzed the maximum carrying capacity, Ehrlich and Erhlich (1990)
discussed the global population explosion, Chamie (2004) explained the role of fertility in the
population growth. In another study United Nations ( 2001) reported the effect of World
Urbanization in the global population growth, Van de Kaa ( 2001) studied over the human
genome and fertility in modern changing behavior of the people. Eddie et al. (2008) focused
over the sustainable development under suitable environment and human health.
Through their study, they have shown that NGP can be estimated with the increase of the
people having different age groups in different continent of the globe. As far as the studies

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concerned, the increase of life expectancies, slow downing the morbidity, mortality rate,
development of genetic engineering and medical sciences cause the increase of NGP. For the
case of under developed countries, there are several other factors like ignorance of
contraceptive use, lack of knowledge over family planning, racial myth and laws, economically
unsoundness( ‘more hands create more income’), lack of proper education and day end
entertainment etc. have contributed to increase the NGP.
A study shows, the major contribution to increase the NGP coming from the more developing
countries rather than developed countries. Also, they are keeping their rank position still fixed
over the subject years after year.
But, if we think off the environmental issues, we have seen that, global atmosphere is being
polluted rapidly due to deforestations, excessive use of underground coal and pure water,
excessive use of carbon emitted vehicles, poly-pack etc. As a result, the green house gas is
easily penetrating the outer ozone layer of the globe and hence the ultraviolet rays of the sun
can directly hit the skin of human body causing severe cancer or several other non curable
diseases. However, the polar ice is melting day by day and it is expected to raise 3-10 meters
after coming 50 years causing 30% of the inhabitable land will be diminished. Therefore,
from one side, people are dying from cancer disease every moment and from another side a
large part of the population fall into shelter less. By this way death rate is becoming high with
respect to birth rate of the human species in the globe as a whole.
In our study we have shown that the growth of NGP will stop within few years later which is
the major contribution of this article. The earth will be stabilized and reach a maximum
carrying capacity by the year 2050. This article has been organized as follows:- section 2:
Demographic transition model, section 3: Factors affecting population growth, section 4: five
years numerical study, section 5: Basic threats on population growth, section 6: Convex
growth rate, section 7: Major Hamiltonian causes to decline population growth.
section 8. Process of sustainable development, section 9: Conclusion.
2. Demographic Transition Model [1]
The process of stabilization of population growth named Demographic Transition and it is
shown in fig.1 under four separate stages. The transition is from rural to urban.

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 Figure 1: The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1. Here, birth rates and death rates are both high. Modern medicine are insufficient to
lengthen life substantially and healthy life. Both rates fluctuated depending on circumstances.
No demographic transition has occurred.

Stage 2. In this stage, restoration of hygiene and modern medical treatment have been
employed to drive the death rate down, causing upward trend in population size.

Stage 3. Urbanization decreases the economic incentives for large families. The cost of
supporting an urban family grew and parents were more actively discouraged from having
large families. In response to these economic pressures, the birth rate started to drop, ultimately
coming close to the death rate.

Stage 4. The last stage of the demographic transition is characterized by a higher, but stable,
population size. Birth and death rates were both relatively low and the standard of living
became much higher than during the earlier periods. The developed world remains in the fourth
stage of its demographic transition. A good example of a country in this stage is Sweden. At
stage 4, we speak of countries having completed the second or a full demographic transition.

Fig.-2 shows, the total global population approaching 9 billion by the year 2050. The projected
curve more closely resembles a sigmoid (logistic) or "S-shaped" curve.

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 Figure 2: Projected World Population Growth

3. Factors affecting global population growth

1. For developed countries (China, United States of America, Germany, Italy, France,
Russia, Sweden, Spain etc.) the children and youth account for 16% and 12% of the
total population growth. But in the developing countries ( India , Indonesia, Pakistan,
Philippines, Africa China etc.) that data be 40% and 20 % respectively.
2. Life expectancy has been increased due to advancement of Medical sciences.
3. Maternal morbidity and mortality rate has been reduced due to early prevention and
detection of HIV/ sexually transmitted infections and non communicable diseases .
4. The countries near global equatorial region have high fertility rate than arctic region.

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4. Five years numerical study [6]
We take top 36 countries who are responsible for major contribution to population growth
as under.
Table-2: Population Rank Correlation Coefficient for the years 2010 & 2014.
2010 Rank Rank d = Rank Difference Correlation Coefficients
2010 2014
China 1 1 0
India 2 2 0 6 ∑ 

1
United States 3 3 0
  1
Indonesia 4 4 0 = 1 6 
33  49 
Brazil 5 5 0 26  30/
36 
Pakistan 6 6 0 1295
Bangladesh 7 8 1 =1-1386/46620
Nigeria 8 7 1 =1-828/46620
Russia 9 9 0 =1-.0177606
Japan 10 10 0 = 0.9822394
Mexico 11 11 0
Philippines 12 12 0
Vietnam 13 14 1
Ethiopia 14 13 1
Germany 15 17 2
Egypt 16 15 1
Turkey 17 16 1
Congo. Dem.Rep 18 19 1
Iran 19 18 1
Thailand 20 20 0
France 21 21 0
United Kingdom 22 22 0
Italy 23 23 0
Burma 24 24 0
South Africa 25 27 2
South Korea 26 26 0
Ukraine 27 31 4
Colombia 28 29 1
Sudan 29 36 7
Tanzania 30 25 5
Argentina 31 32 1
Spain 32 28 4
Kenya 33 30 3
Poland 34 34 0
Algeria 35 33 2
Canada 36 37 1

Table-2. Five years total global population

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
679,0062216 698,0234078 702,1836029 709,5217980 717,4611584
Mean (m ) =701.2392 Cr. Median = 702.1836 Cr., Mode =3 Median -- 2 Mean = 704.0724

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 From the above table-1 we see the top 6 countries keeping their rank positions fixed and
for the others it varies minutely with very high rank difference correlation; as a result the
overall growth becoming high. Table-2 shows mode of the population for the five years
(2010-2014) is greater than the mean and median. This result indicates that, the growth
rate is becoming high for this time being.
5. Basic threats on population growth[12]
1. Public health: Unclean water, along with poor sanitation, kills over 12 million people
each year, most in developing countries. The trend of environmental degradation is
increasing day by day and for that about 3 million die from pollution each year.
2. Food supply: In 64 of 105 developing countries studied by the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization, the population has been growing faster than food supplies.
3. Freshwater: The supply of freshwater is finite, but demand is soaring as population
grows and uses per capita rises. By 2025, when world population is projected to be 8
billion, 48 countries containing 3 billion people will face shortages.
4. Forests: The demand for forest products exceeds sustainable consumption by 25%.
Nearly half of the world’s original forest cover has been lost, and each year another 16
million hectares are cut, bulldozed, or burned. Forests provide over US$400 billion to
the world economy annually and are vital to maintaining healthy ecosystems.
5. Biodiversity :The earth’s biological diversity is crucial to the continued vitality of
agriculture and medicine — and perhaps even to life on earth itself. Yet human
activities are pushing many thousands of plant and animal species into extinction. Two
of every three species is estimated to be in decline.
6. Global climate change: The earth’s surface is warming due to greenhouse gas
emissions, largely from burning fossil fuels. If the global temperature rises as projected,
sea levels would rise by several meters, causing widespread flooding. Global warming
also could cause droughts and disrupt agriculture.
7. Human induced climate change : It is expected to negatively impact agricultural
productivity throughout the Tropics and sub-Tropics , decrease water quantity and
quality in most arid and semi arid regions, increase the incidence of malaria, dengue
and other vector borne diseases which harm the ecological systems and the bio diversity
of Tropics and sub tropics.

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6. Convex growth rate [12]

Here we see, the estimated world pop. ( table-3), Estimated annual death, cancer death and
increase rate ( table-4) , other estimated leading death factors for high income countries(
table-5)

Table-3 World Population 2000-2045

Mid year Billions Mid year Billions

2000 6.086 2025 7.067
2005 6.425 2030 7.009
2010 6.704 2035 6.863
2015 6.910 2040 6.635
2020 7.033 2045 6.337

Table-4 Estimated number of Annual deaths (based on 14-th April 2015)

Population Death rate Cancer Deaths Increase rate

Per year 56000000 6202080 78840000
Per month 4679452 516840 6480000
Per day 153424.70 16992 216000
Per hour 6392.70 708 9000
Per minute 106.60 11.8 150

Table-5 Leading causes of death in the high income countries

Disease Death in Millons % of deaths

Ischaemic heart disease 1.42 15.6
Stroke & other cerebrovascular disease 0.79 8.7
Trachea ,Bronchus, lung cancer 0.54 5.9
Alzheimer& other dementias 0.37 4.1
Lower respiratory infections 0.35 3.8
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease .35 3.8
Colon &rectum cancer .30 3.3
Diabetes mellitus .24 2.6
Hypertensive heart disease .21 2.3
Breast cancer .17 1.9
From the above tables -3, we see that, the total global population is increased up to 2025
and then began to decrease up to 2045. Table-4 shows, at per estimated record dated 14-th
April 2015, the death per minute ( normal 106.6+ due to cancer 11.8) is 118.4 which is very
near to the increase birth rate per minute accounting 150. From table -5 we see , the death
from Ischaemic heart disease is 15.6 % and the death from breast cancer is 1.9 % of total
population from high income countries. A recent study reported [12] that, in the year 1 AD we
were only 300 million and our population were growing slowly at 0.5% per year. At the start of
1980 the world population was 4.4 billion but in 20 years we added over 1.6 billion people and

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the population was 6 billion. By 2025 it is predicted we will be more than 8 billion.
Considering the results of above tables ( 3,4 and 5), [ due to page limitation we are not able to
incorporate all the similar data], a British Physicist estimated the changing shift of population
growth rate by the following equation :


  . . . !. "!
#  ! . !
#$  %

It projects the end of world population growth at 7.07 billion around 2025. At present the
world death rate is 9 deaths per year per 1,000 population. This low a death rate can only be
temporary because it would require life expectancy to be 1000/9 = 111 years.

7. Major Hamiltonian causes to decline population growth.

1. Hamilton worries that modern medicine eliminates natural selection and our genome will
steadily accumulate more and more deleterious mutations.
2. Scientific and technological abilities to diagnose and repair these mutations will be
insufficient, now and in the near future.
3. The accumulation of mutations has accelerated since humans have partly eliminated
natural selection by medical practice.
4. Medical intervention amounts to phenotypic curing of every defect in the germ line
5. There are hundreds known single gene disorders, but many more unknown genes that
affect disease. Hamilton estimates there are 100.00 genes in the human genome. Most
mutations are bad. The majority of genes will accumulate bad mutations.
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6. Hamilton is more pessimistic than scientists like Steve Jones and John Maynard Smith
who think we can repair the known deleterious mutations by engineering the germ line or
soma.

8. Process of Sustainable development

1. Slowing the increase in population, especially in the face of rising per capita demand for
natural resources, can take pressure off the environment and buy time to improve living
standards on a sustainable (1 billion more people every 13 years)basis.
2. As population growth slows, countries can invest more in education, health care, job
creation, and other improvements that help boost living standards. Family planning is
effective in stabilizing growth.
3. As population and demand for natural resources continue to grow, environmental limits
will become increasingly apparent. Water shortages are expected to affect nearly 3
billion people in 2025,

9.Conclusion.
In the present study we made an explanation to study the future of the population
growth model without going through in depth data analysis. It can be observed that
global population growth is associated with demographic transitions for different
countries. The developing countries contribute more population than developed
countries. In one part the technological development, life expectancy etc. help to reduce
the birth time child mortality rate, morbidity etc. and hence in tern it helps to increase
the total global population. To maintain the day to day livelihood this huge population
needs adequate amount of food, fresh water, fresh air, survivable environment, proper
medical support, and land for inhabitation, satisfactory jobs and healthy reproductive
life. It is seen that human civilization totally relies upon natural resources such as
wood. Coal, fresh water and Oxygen. Excessive deforestation causing environmental
imbalance and hence an immerging situation is green house effect. As a result, polar ice
melting, see level increases, disturbance in bio-diversity, skin cancer/ HIV, AIDS etc.
are occurring in their globe as a whole. This kind of changes directly hit the genome of
the human species and hence in few decades later the life expectancy will began to
reduce, death rate will cross the birth rate. By this way a sudden fall will occur in the
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 total population and will began to stabilize for few decades with maximum carrying
capacity 10-20 billion. This process will be continued as the laws of nature means the
natural selection adopts.

References

1. Bose, A. ( 2006): Beyond Demography: Dialogue with people, B.R. Publishing

corporation.
2. Chamie, J. (2004). Low fertility: Can Govt. make a difference . Session 105:
International response to low fertility. Presented at the annual meeting of the
population association of America, April 2, 2004.
3. Cohen, J. 1995. How many people can the earth support? W. W. Norton & Co.,
New York
4. Eddie, Laboy-Nieves, Schaffner, Abdelhadi, Matttheus, Goosen( ed.) (2008):
Envermental Management, Sustainable development and Human health, Taylor
and Francis.
5. Ehrlich, P. and Erhlich, A. 1990. The Population Explosion. New York: Simon
and Schuster.
6. Infoplease.com/world/statistics/most popular countries.
7. Meadows D., Randers J., Meadows D., 2004, Limits to growth – the 30-year
update, Bath Press, Bath, UK
8. Miller J.T. Jr., 1999, Living in the environment – Principles, connections and
solutions, 11th edition, Brooks/ Cole Publishing Company, California, USA
9. United Nations ( 2001). World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision (
United Nations Publication, sales no. E. 01 XIII. 11).
10. Van de Kaa, D. J. ( 2001). Post modern fertility preferences: From changing
value orientation to new behavior. Population and Development Review,
supplement to Vol. 27, 290-331.
11. www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index.html
12. Zero-Population Growth (ZPG), a nonprofit organization working on
population issues. Of special interest is the ZPG Congressional Report Card

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