PI080 S40

GROUP 1

MAT097
GROUP PROJECT REPORT

TASK 1: THE POPULATION IN MYANMAR FROM

2010 TO 2019
TASK 2: THE SIMPSON’S RULE

LECTURER: PUAN ZARITH SOFIAH OTHMAN

NO. NAME STUDENT ID

1 ABANG SHAHZARITH BIN ABANG MAHMUD 2020883278

2 AHMAD DARWISH BIN MOHD LOKMAN 2020892436

3 AMIELIA YUSRINA BINTI MOHD AZIZI 2020811426

4 MEGAT AHMAD HAZIQ BIN MEGAT PAIZAL 2020858314

5 NASRIN ADRIANA BINTI MOHAMMAD ZABRI 2020610822

6 NURUL SYAFIQAH AMIRAH BINTI ROSLAN 2020861372

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to the following people who have
helped us in this final assignment for semester 2. We are very grateful for the time we have spent
to make sure that this assignment will be completed before the due date. We would like to thank
Allah SWT for blessing us with the knowledge and inspiration to complete this assignment.
Next, we are very thankful for our math lecturer, Madam Zarith Sofiah Othman for providing us
guidance and positive feedback throughout this project. Besides, our family has given endless
support and prayers for us to excel this semester. Last but not the least, this project cannot be
completed without full commitment from each of our group members, Shahzarith, Darwish,
Megat, Nasrin, Syafiqah and Amielia. Finally, whatever we have achieved in this assignment is
all due to such help and guidance from everyone who is involved.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ………………………………………………………………...1
TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………………………………………....2
LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………………..3
LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………………………………….3

ASSIGNMENTS

TASK 1

1 POPULATION IN MYANMAR…………………………………………………………...4

1.1 Introduction….……………………………………………………………………4

1.2 Methodology……….……………………………………………………………..6

1.3 Data Analysis and Discussion…………………………….……………………...10

TASK 2

2 Simpson’s Rule

2.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………...15

2.2 Implementation ………………………………………………………………….16

2.3 Data Analysis and Discussion …………………………………………………...18

RECOMMENDATIONS ..………………………………………………………………...21

CONCLUSION…………….……………………………………………………………….22

REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………….23

2
 LIST OF TABLES
Page

Table 1: The population in Myanmar by year from 2010 to 2019 6

Table 2: Actual and Estimated Number of Population in Myanmar from 2010 to 2019 10

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Population of Myanmar Citizen 10

Figure 2: Particular Solution of Population of Myanmar Citizen (Using Padowan) 11
Figure 3: Computational Output using Excel Spreadsheet (n = 4) 18
Figure 4: Computational Output using Excel Spreadsheet (n = 6) 18
Figure 5: Original graph with 4 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule 19
Figure 6: Zoomed graph with 4 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule 20
Figure 7: Original graph with 6 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule 20
Figure 8: Zoomed graph with 6 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule 21

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1. POPULATION IN MYANMAR

The Republic of the Union of Myanmar is the official name of Myanmar after being
changed from the Union of Burma in 1989. This country is a Southeast Asian nation that is
located in the western part of the continent. According to Encyclopedia Britannica of Myanmar
(2021), the administrative offices were moved to Pyinmana in 2005 which is 320km North of
Yangon. Then, it was moved to Nay Pyi Taw, a recently built city close to Pyinmana that was
then declared as the capital city of Myanmar in 2006. Myanmar is shaped like a kite and has a
long tail that stretches along the Malay Peninsula and it's also the nethermost country of
Southeast Asia that stretches from latitude 0° N to about 28° 30′ N. It has a total length of about
1,275 miles (2,050 kilometres) from north to south and a distance of about 580 miles (930
kilometres) from east to west at its widest point, which is in the centre of the world near the
latitude of Mandalay.

Myanmar is also one of the countries that keep track of their population and the growth
pattern where they are routinely collected by the government. According to The Stockholm
University Demography Unit (SUDA), the study of human population concentrating on the
population size, composition, distribution across space and the process by which societies adjust
is called demography. Suzanne Wakim and Mandeep Grewal (2021) stated that the proportion of
individuals by age, sex, and, in some cases, other criteria such as ethnicity or education, is
referred as population structure. Births, deaths, and migration are examples of demographic
processes that affect population size, stability and composition. For planning purposes,
population data is important as it helps to plan how many hospitals, schools and jobs a country
needs. Other than that, it is also important because this population data can help the government
to determine whether the food resources provided is enough or not and land to host the whole
population in accordance with the country's future population growth.

Uncontrolled growth or too much population give some consequences to economic

development. It also can be a limiting factor to economic development as it requires more
investment, negative impact on per-capita income, increases the problem of unemployment and

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many more. Not just that, it also might lead to difficulties in social and political problems. The
main problem is population growth is one the most difficult parts to predict. Attempts were made
in previous centuries to mathematically model and analyse human population growth. Thomas
Robert Malthus was a prominent 18th-century British economist who wrote "An Essay on the
Principle of Population'' in 1798. He is also credited for inventing the Malthusian growth model,
which is an exponential formula for forecasting population growth. The Malthusian growth
model is basically exponential growth, which is based on the assumption that the function's
growth rate is proportional to the function's speed (Malthus, 1798).

The objective in this research are:

1. To identify the population number in Myanmar for 2010 to 2019.

2. To use a particular solution to measure one past and potential population value in Myanmar.

3. To use a first-order differential equation based on the Malthusian growth model to model the
population in Myanmar.

Scope and limitations

In this project, the time period used in this project is from 2010 to 2019, a period of 10 years.

The main reason we have to collect data for these 10 years is that we need to limit the solutions.

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1.2 METHODOLOGY
The data that had been used in this task is taken from The World Bank Data which is the data of
population in Myanmar. The data obtained will then be transferred and inserted into a table shown in
Table 1. This data will be the primary data and be used in this task. Microsoft Excel is used to plot the
primary data as shown in Figure 1.

t YEAR POPULATION

0 2010 50600818

1 2011 50990615

2 2012 51413698

3 2013 51852451

4 2014 52280807

5 2015 52680726

6 2016 53045226

7 2017 53382581

8 2018 53708395

9 2019 54045420

Table 1: The population in Myanmar by year from 2010 to 2019

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 In this task, the first order differential equations method is used to shows how the
population growth over time.The Malthusian growth model is given as,

𝑘𝑡
𝑃(𝑡) = 𝐴𝑒

P = the population of Myanmar at time, t

A = initial population size

k = constant of proportionality

t = time

Since the rate of growth is proportional to the number of Myanmar’s population P(t),

𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡
∝𝑃

Or

𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡
= kP

where k is the constant of proportionality.

Then, the equation can be solved by using the approach of separable variables by first separating
the variables P and t.

1
dP = k dt
𝑝

The equation is then being integrated

1
∫ 𝑝 dP = k dt

ln |P|= kt + C

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 𝑘𝑡+𝐶
P=𝑒

The general solution can be simplified to be

𝑘𝑡 𝑐
P=A𝑒 , where 𝑒 = 𝐴

The value of k and A can be obtained by using the general differential equation as shown below.
Thus, a particular solution also can be obtained.

Using the initial condition t = 0 (2010), P = 50600818

𝑘(0)
𝑃(𝑡) = 𝐴𝑒

𝑘(0)
50600818 = 𝐴𝑒

𝐴 =50600818

The general solution becomes

𝑘𝑡
𝑃(𝑡) = 50600818𝑒

The value of the constant k also can be find by using t = 1 (2011), P = 50990615

𝑘(1)
50990615 = 50600818𝑒

𝑘 50990615
𝑒 = 50600818

𝑘 50990615
𝑙𝑛𝑒 = 𝑙𝑛 50600818

50990615
𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛 50600818
≈ 0.00767385

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The particular solution now becomes

0.00767385𝑡
𝑃(𝑡) = 50600818𝑒

Calculation is continued to calculate the population in Myanmar for 2010 to 2019. The
actual and the estimated data is filled into the table as shown in Table 2. The graph of a particular
solution is also being constructed by using Padowan and shown in Figure 2.

YEAR ACTUAL ESTIMATED

2010 50600818 50600818

2011 50990615 50990615

2012 51413698 51383414

2013 51852451 51779240

2014 52280807 52178114

2015 52680726 52580062

2016 53045226 52985105

2017 53382581 53393269

2018 53708395 53804577

2019 54045420 54219054

Table 2: Actual and Estimated Number of population in Myanmar from 2010 to 2019

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1.3 DATA AND ANALYSIS

Figure 1 : Population of Myanmar Citizens

Based on Figure 1, the population of Myanmar citizens in 2010 is the lowest which was compared
and the highest in 2019. After this year, the population of Myanmar citizens was increasing exponentially
with increasing time. Burma also well-known as Myanmar shows a moderate population density, with 73
people per square km and it was in position 93th in ranking of density population in 2010 while in 2019,
80 people per square km and it was in position 94th in ranking of density population.

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 Figure 2 : Particular Solution of Population of Myanmar Citizens (Using Padowan)

Based on Figure 2, the population of Myanmar citizens is increasing exponentially with time
when using a particular solution. This means the population in Myanmar will increase in the future.

To predict the future value of population of Myanmar citizens by using particular solution, we set
t = 10 for 2020

0.00767385𝑡
𝑃(𝑡) = 50600818𝑒

0.00767385(10)
𝑃(10) = 50600818𝑒

= 54636725. 36

≈ 54636725

As shown above, the population of Myanmar citizens is 54636725 in 2020.

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To find one value of population of Myanmar citizens in the past by using particular solution, we
set t = -2 for 2008

0.00767385𝑡
𝑃(𝑡) = 50600818𝑒

0.00767385(−2)
𝑃(− 2) = 50600818𝑒

= 49830141. 01

≈ 49830141

As shown above, the population of Myanmar citizens is 49830141 in 2008.

To find the percentage of error for both year by using formula ;

𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟, % = │ 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
│ × 100%

When t = -2 (2008)

49830141 − 49929642
𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟, % = │ 49929642
│ × 100%

= 0. 199%

When t = 10 (2020)

54636725 − 54409800
𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟, % = │ 54409800
│ × 100%

= 0. 417%

The values do not correspond to historical values. For 2008 and 2020, the precise values
of the population of Myanmar citizens are 49929642 and 54409800, respectively, while the
estimated values are 49830141 and 54636723. The percentage error of each year is 0.199% for

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2008 and 0.417% for 2020. They are not consistent with historical values because the time, t, that
have been used in this solution does not correspond to current Myanmar values, and we are
unsure of the exact number and decimal places used.

The historical value does not match the past value that has already been calculated using
the particular solution with the actual value of population in Myanmar being more than the value
that has been calculated. According to the history of Myanmar, Myanmar has undergone a rapid
transition in recent years, owing to economic and political changes that have provided
opportunities for many people. This has been followed by growth and poverty reduction, with
GDP rising by more than 8% a year on average between 2005 and 2014, and poverty falling from
48% to 32% over the same time span. This will result in an increase in Myanmar's birth rate, not
only in urban areas but also in the rural area. In addition, it is estimated that the rural population
will move to the city in large numbers because of the metropolitan area's convenience and
adequate basic requirements. About 30 percent of Myanmar's population currently lives in cities.
The increase in population in this urban area will lead to an increase in the birth rate of the
Myanmar population

Besides, rice is the most important agricultural crop, accounting for roughly 60% of the
country's overall cultivated land area. Between 1966 and 1997, 52 modern rice varieties were
published in the country in cooperation with the International Rice Research Institute, assisting
in increasing national rice production to 14 million tons in 1987 and 19 million tons in 1996. By
1988, modern rice varieties had been cultivated on half of the country's ricelands, including 98%
of irrigated fields. Rice production was expected to be 50 million tons in 2008. This means that
the population's living conditions, especially in rural areas, will improve, whilst the fertility rate
will rise higher, resulting in an increase in population.

For the population of Myanmar citizens in the future are totally opposite with the past
value. It is because the actual value of the Myanmar population for the future, which is in 2020
that have been calculated using the particular solution, is bigger than the actual value. This is
because of the Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Myanmar's economic growth was expected to
accelerate to 6.3 percent in FY2019/20 and 6.4 percent in FY2020/21. However, the pandemic's
overt and indirect effects are projected to trigger a sharp downturn in Myanmar's economy. The

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global shock and domestic attempts to curb the virus's expansion have come at a high economic
expense. There is a lack of income as well as a scarcity of food. The pandemic has severely
harmed Myanmar's economy, leading to income and food shortages. The pandemic's dramatic
drop in remittances is expected to lower household income. Eighty percent of Myanmar's
workforce is unregistered. When the COVID-19 affects the economy of Myanmar, the
population's living conditions, especially for rural citizens, will also decrease and poverty will
increase. This will also cause depression among the people and these also will lead to the
suicidal case. Not only does it affect the economy, COVID-19 also causes a lot of death cases in
2020. As many as 2682 people have been killed with this virus for a whole year. On 23 March
2020, Myanmar confirmed its first and second COVID-19 cases. From 18 September 2020, these
covid 19 cases increased dramatically day by day.

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TASK 2

INTRODUCTION

Simpson's Rule is known as after Thomas Simpson who was a British mathematician that
invented another method for approximating the worth of a selected integral. This rule approach
replaces parabolas for the slanted-line tops. so to become the Simpson approximation, we also
got to establish a formula for the earth of a parabolic-top area element. This rule, also used by
Kepler a century before, was a way to approximate integrals without having to deal with many
narrow rectangles (which also implies many decimal calculations). Its strength is that, although
rectangles and trapezoids work better for linear functions, Simpson’s Rule works quite well on
curves.

We divide the area into n equal segments of width Δx. The approximate area is given by the
following.

𝑏
∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 ≈
𝑎

ℎ
3 [𝑓(𝑥0) + 4𝑓(𝑥1) + 2𝑓(𝑥2) + 4𝑓(𝑥3) + 2𝑓(𝑥4) +... + 4𝑓(𝑥𝑛−1) + 𝑓(𝑥𝑛)]

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 𝑏−𝑎
Where, h=
𝑛
𝑛 = subdivisions of the function, it is an even number
𝑎 = point at the start of the function graph
𝑏 = point at the end of the function graph

Like any other approximation rule, Simpson’s works best when the interval is narrow and
therefore the function values over that interval have an identical shape to the approximation
device (in this case, a quadratic curve). Some function types, like exponentials can cause
problems because their shape over a broad interval isn't similar enough to a quadratic. However,
this problem is often alleviated by dividing larger intervals into smaller sub intervals over which
Simpson’s Rule will continue to work well. The number of sub-intervals should depend upon the
width of the first interval; it makes as little sense to divide an interval of width 0.5 by 5 as it does
to divide an interval of width 100 by 5.

For the task 2 of our group, by using the Simpson’s Rule, we need to solve the functions that had
3
2+ 𝑥−1
been given which is 4 . Hence, the solution will be shown under the implementation

subtopic.

IMPLEMENTATION

Numerical integration such as Simpson’s Rule is often used to solve functions that cannot
be done by analytical integration. In other words, it is the numerical approximation of definite
3
2+ 𝑥−1
integrals. For this task, we got the function of 4 .
𝑏
So, to obtain the approximation of definite integrals ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥.We use parabolas to
𝑎

approximate each area of the curve. Then, we need to find width, h or ∆𝑥 by dividing the interval
[𝑎, 𝑏]into an even number, n which is subintervals for each width.

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Using Simpson’s Rule, we specifically have been following this formula:

𝑏
∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 ≈
𝑎

ℎ
3 [𝑓(𝑥0) + 4𝑓(𝑥1) + 2𝑓(𝑥2) + 4𝑓(𝑥3) + 2𝑓(𝑥4) +... + 4𝑓(𝑥𝑛−1) + 𝑓(𝑥𝑛)]

STEPS TO APPROXIMATE USING SIMPSON’S RULE:

1) First, identify the even numbers of subintervals,n. In our cases we are asked to use n=4
and n=6.
2) Next, determine width, h or ∆𝑥for each subintervals using the formula and given interval
[− 4. 5, − 1. 5].
𝑏−𝑎 −1.5 − (−4.5)
h= 𝑛 = 4
= 0.75 for 4 subintervals

𝑏−𝑎 −1.5 − (−4.5)

h= 𝑛 = 6
= 0.5 for 6 subintervals

3) Calculate the value of each subintervals, x.

4) Compute the value of f(x) that corresponds to the values of subintervals, x.
5) List all coefficients for Simpson's Rule which are 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, … , 2, 4, 1.
6) Calculate the approximation area for each subinterval by multiplying the value of f(x)
and the coefficient.
7) Sum all the value of approximation area of each subintervals, (f(x) ×coefficient).
8) Calculate the value of area approximation.
−1.5 3
2+ ℎ
∫ 4 𝑥−1
dx ≈
3
x ( sum of coefficient x f(x) )
−4.5

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 1. When n=4, area=

−1.5 3
2+ 𝑥−1 0.75
∫ 4 dx ≈
3
(66.32147674)
−4.5

≈ 16.58036918
≈ 16.5804

2. When n=6, area=

−1.5 3
2+ 𝑥−1 0.5
∫ 4 dx ≈
3
(99.47923309)
−4.5

≈ 16.57987218
≈ 16.5799

DATA ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

Figure 3 : Computational Output using Excel Spreadsheet (n=4)

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 Figure 4 : Computational Output using Excel Spreadsheet (n=6)

The actual value of the area obtained using the graphing app (Desmos) is 16.5797480475.
However, after calculating our value of area, we did not get the exact value as the actual area.
Hence, there will be a percentage error for both subintervals. For 4 subintervals, we obtained an
area of 16.58036918. This leads to an absolute error of 0.0006211325 equivalent to 0.004%.
Meanwhile, for 6 subintervals, we obtained an area of 16.57987218 and absolute error of
0.0001241325. This is equivalent to a percentage error of 0.001%.

Based on the results we obtained from Figure 3 and 4, the percentage error for 4 subintervals
is higher than for 6 subintervals. When we use more subintervals, our trapezoids give better
approximations to the area under the graph of the function. For 4 subintervals, only 4
parabolic-elements to calculate the area of integrals whereas for 6 subintervals, there are 6
parabolic-top elements to sum the area of integrals. This shows that in the limit, as the number
of subintervals increases, the approximation converges to the exact area under the curve.

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When n = 4,

Figure 5: Original graph with 4 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule

Figure 6 : Zoomed graph with 4 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule

20
When n = 6,

Figure 7 : Original graph with 6 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule

Figure 8 : Zoomed graph with 6 equal segments using Simpson’s Rule

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 3
2+
Overall, the two graphs of integral of f(x) = 4 𝑥−1
with intervals of -4.5 and -1.5 by using
Desmos apps. By using subintervals of 4 and 6, we obtained figures shown above, the original
and zoomed graphs. We also discover that the approximation covers two of the subintervals
which explains why n must be an even number.

RECOMMENDATIONS

From task 1, after doing some research and discussion among the group members, we all
agreed to choose Population in Myanmar from 2010 to 2019 as our topic for this assignment. It
helps us to broaden our knowledge about this Southeast Asian nation country that is located in
the western part of the continent and also we get to know how the population in Myanmar is
increasing from year to year. Besides that, we also get to know how to apply The Malthusian
growth model in order to find its particular solution and also to find its estimated population.
Plus, after doing this assignment we also would like to suggest some ways on how to increase the
population in Myanmar. For instance, the government should decrease the percentage of tax for
parents who have more children, increase the percentage for parents who have no children and
also play their roles in encouraging their citizens to have bigger families. Other than that, the
authorities also may need to have a study on statistical observation on mortality and other factors
that may influence the human population growth. Lastly, we also hope that many graph plotting
applications can be made such as Padowan will help students in preventing data
misinterpretation by comparing the answers.

For task 2, as we are using the Simpson's Rule we would like to recommend using it to
integrate any quadratic or cubic function. It is because the area obtained will be more accurate
from any curvy functions. Also, to improve accuracy we would like to recommend a higher
value of n or big difference of subintervals so that the function can be better approximated and
easily observe the difference.

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CONCLUSION

In conclusion, for task 1, we can know in detail about the information and
background for one of the Southeast Asian Countries, which is Myanmar. Moreover, we
can know the location of the country in the world map, the culture, the history and the
populations in Myanmar which are the objective for our research. Next, we also can
know more about the factors that affected the population in Myanmar. Last but not
least,in this task, we can predict the past and future of the population in Myanmar by
0.00767385𝑡
using the particular solution, 𝑃(𝑡) = 50600818𝑒 .

On the other hand, for task 2, we can conclude that by using numerical methods such as
Simpson’s Rule method is used as approximation techniques to solve mathematical problems that
cannot be solved analytically. For instance, functions that are impossible and infeasible to do the
3
2+ 𝑥−1
analytical integration such as the given question, f(x) = 4 . We also observed that when
more subintervals are used, the better approximation of the area under the graph of function.

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REFERENCES

Overview. (2021). Retrieved April 10, 2021, from World Bank website:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/myanmar/overview
Wikipedia Contributors. (2021, March 1). Myanmar. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar
Wikipedia Contributors. (2021, March 31). Simpson's Rule. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_rule
The World Bank. (2019). Population, total - Myanmar | Data. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?end=2012&locations=MM&start=19
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