B.Sc.

4th year project work

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP

BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
POPULATION GROWTH OF NEPAL

Presented By: Supervised By:

Diwas Rai Prakash Bahadur Amatya (H.O.D)
SYMBOL No.: 500220085 Statistics and Computer Department
T.U. REGISTRATION No.: 5-2-22-414-2017 Patan Multiple Campus
Patan Multiple Campus Tribhuvan University
Tribhuvan University
Introduction

• What is population growth?

• What is economic growth?

• How are they related?

 Demand

Labour force
Increase in population Economic growth

Skilled manpower
Environment degradation Standard of living Health facilities
Statement of the problem

• What is the trend and pattern of economic growth and population growth?
• What degree of relationship is between dependent and explanatory variable
under study?
• Is regression statistically significant to explain the regressand?
Scope and Limitation

• This study is mainly purposed to investigate the relationship

between economic growth and population growth of Nepal.

• This study is useful for the further research on factors affecting the
economic growth of Nepal.

• This study will be based on the published secondary data covering

the period of 41 years from 1980 to 2020.
 Research Design and Methodology
Type of data:
• Secondary source
Source of data:
• Nepal Rastra Bank
• Central Bureau of
Statistics
• World Bank Data
Statistical tools:
• Descriptive Statistics
• Correlation Analysis
• Regression Analysis
• Trend Analysis
• F-test
• T-test
• Residual Analysis
Research Instruments:
• Excel
• SPSS
Results

Descriptive statistics of variables:

N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation C.V.

Population growth 41 -0.26849 2.72921 1.6725 0.84263 0.50381

GDP growth 41 -2.97741 9.68113 4.33707 2.80266 0.64621

 Trend analysis of population growth

3
2.72920359986776
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
-0.268486268243194
-0.5
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Population growth in % Linear (Population growth in % )

 Trend analysis of GDP growth

12

10 9.68113001523059

-2
-2.97740585754975
-4
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

GDP growth % Linear (GDP growth %)

 Comparison of yearly growth rate of population and GDP
Population growth in % GDP growth in %

12

10 9.68113001523059

4
2.72920359986776

0
-0.268486268243194
-2
-2.97740585754975
-4
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Correlation matrix:

GDP growth rate Population growth

rate

Pearson Correlation GDP growth rate 1.000 .050

Population growth rate .050 1.000

 Regression coefficient:

Model Beta Std. Error t P-value

1 (Constant) 4.059 .994 4.084 .000

Population growth .166 .532 .313 .756

rate
a. Dependent Variable: GDP growth rate

The equation of the regression model can be written as follows:

Y=4.059+0.166X_1

Where,
Y= GDP growth rate And X_1 = Population growth rate.
 For the overall test of regression:
ANOVA is performed and tested hypothesis with F-test.
Hypothesis for testing:
Null hypothesis (H0): the overall model is insignificant, i.e., H0: β1≠0
Against,
Alternative hypothesis (H1): the overall model is significant, i.e., H1: β1≠0
The level of significance is α at 0.05

Model Sum of Squares d.f. Mean S.S. F-cal. F-tab.

1 Regression .787 1 .787 .098 4.0913

Residual 313.408 39 8.036

Total 314.195 40

a. Dependent Variable: GDP growth rate

b. Predictors: Population growth rate

R-Square table:

Model R R Square

1 0.05 0.003
Residual Analysis:

Residuals plot
6

0
3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10
Conclusion and Recommendation

Conclusion
Despite the various theories that population growth leads to increased
manpower for economic development and increased customer demand
for products, contrary to popular opinion, rising population leads to
resource exploitation, resulting in resource scarcity and unsustainable
development.
In the context of Nepal, there appears to be no significant relationship
between population and GDP over a 41-year period.
Recommendation
• Further research can be conducted by increasing the number of data
set.

• Since the pace of population growth has remained constant and is

slowing, the government should develop suitable strategies and
policies to produce skilled labour from the available workforce for
significant economic growth.
 References
• Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations. Population and development
review, 153-165.
• David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson . (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging
Asia. The World Bank Economic Review 12(3), 419-455.
• David E. Bloom, David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla. (2001). The effect of health on economic growth: theory and
evidence. Cambridge: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH.

• Navaneetham, K. (2002). Age structural transition and economic growth: evidence from south and southeast Asia.
• Paul Beaudry and Fabrice Collard. (2003). Recent technological and economic change among industrialized
countries: insights from population growth. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(3), 441-464.

• Peterson, E. W. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. Sage Open, 1-15.
• Schmidt, Allen C. Kelley and Robert M. (1995). Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: the role of
the components of demographic change. Demography 32.4, 543-555.
• Simon, J. L. (1989). On Aggregate Empirical Studies Relating Population Variables to Economic Development.
Population and Development Review, 323–332.
Acknowledgement

• Sir Prakash Bahadur Amatya (H.O.D. and Supervisor)

• All respected teachers and staffs of Patan Multiple Campus
• Friends and family members
Thank you!