0.607143 0.214286 0.

178571
week sales 3MA E E-sq 3WMA E E-sq
1 110
2 115
3 125
4 120 116.7 3.3 11.1 113.75 6.3 39.1
5 125 120.0 5.0 25.0 118.0357 7.0 48.5
6 120 123.3 -3.3 11.1 123.9286 -3.9 15.4
7 130 121.7 8.3 69.4 121.0714 8.9 79.7
8 115 125.0 -10.0 100.0 124.8214 -9.8 96.5
9 110 121.7 -11.7 136.1 121.25 -11.3 126.6
10 130 118.3 11.7 136.1 123.2143 6.8 46.0

MSE 69.8 MSE 64.5

 alpha = 0.38099153
Week Sales Forecast Error Sq_Error
1 110
2 115 110 5.00 25.00
3 125 111.90 13.10 171.48
4 120 116.89 3.11 9.65
5 125 118.08 6.92 47.92
6 120 120.71 -0.71 0.51
7 130 120.44 9.56 91.35
8 115 124.08 -9.08 82.52
9 110 120.62 -10.62 112.85
10 130 116.58 13.42 180.21
721.48 525.00
MSE= 80.16 75.00
RMSE = 8.95
 Jobs
month t y t_sq y*t F
t Y 1 353 1 353 357.1
March 1 353 2 387 4 774 364.5
April 2 387 3 342 9 1026 371.9
May 3 342 4 374 16 1496 379.3
June 4 374 5 396 25 1980 386.7
July 5 396 6 409 36 2454 394.1
August 6 409 7 399 49 2793 401.5
September 7 399 8 412 64 3296 408.9
October 8 412 9 408 81 3672 416.3
November 9 408 45 3480 285 17844

349.6667 b1= 7.40 7.4

7.4
bo= 349.67 349.67

Y
450
400 f(x) = 7.4 x + 349.666666666667
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 E E_sq
-4.066667 16.53778
22.53333 507.7511
-29.86667 892.0178
-5.266667 27.73778
9.333333 87.11111
14.93333 223.0044
-2.466667 6.084444
3.133333 9.817778
-8.266667 68.33778

MSE= 204.2667
RMSE= 14.29219

8 9 10
 alpha = 0.590583
beta = 0.509977

week Jobs L b F E Sq_E

March 353 353 34
April 387 387.0 34.0 387 0 0
May 342 374.3 10.2 421 -79 6241
June 374 378.3 7.0 384.5504 -10.55043 111.3115
July 396 391.6 10.2 385.3484 10.6516 113.4565
August 409 406.1 12.4 401.876 7.123974 50.75101
September 399 407.0 6.5 418.4659 -19.46592 378.9219
October 412 412.6 6.1 413.4895 -1.489451 2.218466
November 408 412.4 2.9 418.681 -10.68099 114.0835
December 415.2272

MSE= 1001.678
RMSE= 31.64929
 Year Quater 1 Quater 2 Quater 3 Quater 4
y t Qtr1 Qtr2
1 125 153 106 88 Q1 125 1 1 0
2 118 161 133 102 Q2 153 2 0 1
3 138 144 113 80 Q3 106 3 0 0
4 109 137 125 109 Q4 88 4 0 0
5 130 165 128 96 Q1 118 5 1 0
Q2 161 6 0 1
Q3 133 7 0 0
Q4 102 8 0 0
Q1 138 9 1 0
Q2 144 10 0 1
Q3 113 11 0 0
Q4 80 12 0 0
Q1 109 13 1 0
Q2 137 14 0 1
Q3 125 15 0 0
Q4 109 16 0 0
Q1 130 17 1 0
Q2 165 18 0 1
Q3 128 19 0 0
Q4 96 20 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8937913
R Square 0.798863
Adjusted R 0.7611498
Standard Er11.324752
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS MS FSignificance F
Regression 3 8150 2716.6667 21.182586###
Residual 16 2052 128.25
Total 19 10202
 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
LowerUpper
95% 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 95 5.0645829 18.757714 2.566E-12 84 105.7 84.263564 105.73644
Qtr1 29 7.1624018 4.0489211 0.0009312 14 44.18 13.816386 44.183614
Qtr2 57 7.1624018 7.9582243 5.935E-07 42 72.18 41.816386 72.183614
Qtr3 26 7.1624018 3.6300672 0.0022516 11 41.18 10.816386 41.183614
Qtr3 SUMMARY OUTPUT
0
0 Regression Statistics
1 Multiple R 0.8937913
0 R Square 0.798863
0 Adjusted R Square 0.7611498
0 Standard Error 11.324752
1 Observations 20
0
0 ANOVA
0 df SS MS F Significance F
1 Regression 3 8150 2716.6667 21.182586 8.104E-06
0 Residual 16 2052 128.25
0 Total 19 10202
0
1 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
0 Intercept 95 5.0645829 18.757714 2.566E-12 84.263564
0 Qtr1 29 7.1624018 4.0489211 0.0009312 13.816386
0 Qtr2 57 7.1624018 7.9582243 5.935E-07 41.816386
1 Qtr3 26 7.1624018 3.6300672 0.0022516 10.816386
0
ignificance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
105.73644 84.263564 105.73644
44.183614 13.816386 44.183614
72.183614 41.816386 72.183614
41.183614 10.816386 41.183614
y seas 1 seas2 t SUMMARY OUTPUT
1856 1 0 1
2012 0 1 2 Regression Statistics
985 0 0 3 Multiple R 0.9937173
1995 1 0 4 R Square 0.987474
2168 0 1 5 Adjusted R Square 0.9827768
1072 0 0 6 Standard Error 73.086079
2241 1 0 7 Observations 12
2306 0 1 8
1105 0 0 9 ANOVA
2280 1 0 10 df SS MS
2408 0 1 11 Regression 3 3368786 1122929
1120 0 0 12 Residual 8 42732.6 5341.575
13 Total 11 3411519
14
15 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 797 59.674534 13.355781
seas 1 1095.4333 53.188875 20.595159
seas2 1189.4667 52.061067 22.847528
t 36.466667 6.2902482 5.7973335
 F Significance F
210.22427 6.028E-08

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

9.446E-07 659.39028 934.60972 659.39028 934.60972
3.235E-08 972.77957 1218.0871 972.77957 1218.0871
1.428E-08 1069.4136 1309.5197 1069.4136 1309.5197
0.0004064 21.961328 50.972005 21.961328 50.972005