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Application of P-Median Model for Evacuation Process during Flood Disaster

Article  in  International Journal of Engineering and Management Research · January 2016

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www.ijemr.net ISSN (ONLINE): 2250-0758, ISSN (PRINT): 2394-6962

Volume-6, Issue-1, January-February-2016

International Journal of Engineering and Management Research
Page Number: 198-203

Application of P-Median Model for Evacuation Process during Flood

Disaster
Noridayu Mah Hashim1, S. Sarifah Radiah Shariff2, Sayang Mohd Deni3
1,2,3
Center for Statistics and Decision Science Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi
MARA, 40450 SHAH ALAM

ABSTRACT
When flood disaster strikes, thousands of affected
people had to evacuate their homes and move to relief
centers. The evacuation process must be handled quickly and
efficiently in order to avoid much worse incidents. This study
aims to identify optimal potential relief centers for the
relocation of evacuees from the flood zone areas. P-median
model is considered, in order to minimize travelled distance
per person from the affected zones to the relief centers as well
as to ensure that all the populations are moved. The model is
applied in a case study conducted in Kuantan, Pahang which
was the most affected district in the 2013 flood. The selected
area for the analysis encompassed evacuees from 10 flood
zones and it has the capacity of housing 12 relief centers. The
results showed that only 5 relief centers should have been
selected for the allocation of the evacuees.
Keywords— location-allocation, p-median, optimization,
relief centre.
I. INTRODUCTION
A natural disaster is a major adverse event
resulting from the natural processes of the earth. There are
various types of disasters, but those that most commonly
hit the planet are floods, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes,
tsunamis and hurricanes. Natural disasters leave severe
effects to a lot of countries in form of damage and loss of
properties, transportation, agricultural lands and crops and
so on. Among the listed disasters, flood is the most
frequent and the most destructive for many countries
including Malaysia. Therefore, it is vital for disaster
management teams to plan the evacuation process
effectively to avoid any bad incident from happening.
During a flood disaster, people in affected areas need to be
transferred to the safe area quickly. Safe area in this
context refers to an area that is located at an elevated
ground and is safe from the flood. This area is where relief
centers should be located to place affected people or flood
victims. Relief center refers to a safe public place that is
usually organized and provided by the government to serve
people in the affected area. Examples of relief centers
include schools, community halls, mosques, police stations
and so on. The function of relief centers is to provide a
shelter for victims that had lost their homes, to distribute
food rations and so on.
The authorities involved during the evacuation
process are the Police, National Security Council, Ministry
of Health, Headman of affected villages and others
relevant bodies. They need to ensure that the evacuation
process is conducted efficiently and that all of the flood
victims are transferred safely to the relief centers.
Naturally the nearest shelters are chosen as a relief center
to place the flood victims. In Malaysia, in the year 2014
the worse flood hit several lowland areas affecting most
states such as Kelantan, Terengganu, Perak, Pahang and
Johor. Figure 1 shows the concentration of flood victims in
five states which required to be transferred to relief
centers. Kelantan had the highest number of flood victims,
followed by Pahang, Terengganu, Perak and Johor.
Overall, there were 185,998 of flood victims that need to
be relocated to relief centers. According to [1], the 2014
flood is the worst in 30 years ago.

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Fig.1: The concentration of flood victims in five states
This study aims to identify the optimal potential
relief centers for the allocation of evacuees from the flood
areas. P-median model is applied in order to maximize
social benefit by minimizing the average travelled distance
per person from the flood zones to the relief centers as well
as to ensure that all the populations are moved. The
proposed model is tested using the real-world data
collected from several floods zones in a selected study area
in Kuantan.
II. SOME LITERATURES
Natural disasters such as tsunami, floods,
earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanic eruptions that had
occurred in the last two decades have prompted to an
increasing attention of many researchers to the field of
disaster management. One of the popular models that has
been applied to solve the disaster management problem is
a p-median model, formulated by Hakimi in the mid-
sixties. It is defined as determining the location of p
facilities such that it minimizes the average (total) distance
between demand and their closest facility. The reason for
the interest in the p-median problem is that it has practical
application in a wide variety of planning problems such as
hospital location [2], fire station [3], emergency medical
service [4], shelter center [5], logistic [6] and etc. in the
focus of flood management process, a vast amount of
literature [2]; [5];[7];[8];[9] discussed the advantage of
using p-median model in locating and allocating the
victims to optimal shelter. It is assumed that authorities
shall have a total control on the shelter and route selection
for the evacuees. Nevertheless, it is not sensible for
emergency planners to specifically direct traffic flows
199 Copyright © 2016. Vandana Publications. All Rights Reserved.
when drivers are generally free to select their own travel
routes to their destination. [5] also considered the p-
median model in the city of Logan, Utah. The objective of
the study was to determine the location of shelter with
capacity constraint. The difference between this study and
[7] is that the authority could not control the shelter and
route selection for the evacuees. [8] on the other hand
considered a location distribution problem with uncertain
demand. In this study, it is concluded that joint planning
in optimizing shelter options and transportation strategy is
of utmost importance. .
There are also several limitations that need to
be considered. In this study, it focuses on the evacuation of
the populations that use private vehicles. This is not
practical, for instance, in the incident of Hurricane Katrina,
it is learned that in adopting a mathematical model in
solving this problem, it is imperative that the transportation
needs of low-mobility and special needs groups is
addressed. Meanwhile, the study also assumes that the
capacity of each highway facility is known; because it is
useful to extend the model to optimize the contraflow
strategies while optimizing the choices of shelter location.
The study done by [9] also considered the p-median model
for flood disaster service operation at Amol city, the
northern part of Iran. The objective of this study was to
minimize the maximum expected weight distribution from
the relief rooms to all the demand regions in order to
decrease the evacuation time of people from the affected
areas before the flood occur.
III. METHODOLOGY
A. Model Formulation
In defining the formula to solve the evacuation
planning issue in the selected areas, affected by flood in
Kuantan, the p-median problem is modified as follows.
The model built was intended to minimize the total
distance need to be travelled by the victims from affected
zones to their closest shelters.
Two sets of integer variables were defined as follows:
Decision Variable:
x = 1 if candidate location j is selected to be a relief centre
j
0, otherwise
k ij is number of people in the zone area i that being assigned
to relief centre at location j
Objective of the function:
n m
Minimize Z = ∑∑ dij kij
=i 1 =j 1
(1)
Constraints:
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Subject to: 4 Sungai 27,248.80 63800

Karang
kij ≤ c j x j=
, i 1,......, n,=
j 1,..., m 5 UluKuantan 88,616.53 7400
(2)
m 6 Ulu Lepar 75,340.96 18100
∑ k=ij h=
j =1
i ,i 1,..., n
(3) C. TM Smart Map
TM Smart Map is a web-based mapping
kij ≥ =
0, i 1,..., n=
, j 1,..., m application that combines TM’s digital map with valuable
(4) business data which allows users to perform Geo-spatial
analysis to support decision making in business. TM Smart
x j ∈ {0,1} , j =
1,......m Map by Telekom Malaysia (TM)) provides access to
(5)
demographic distribution, property valuation and business
Where, information. This information is valuable in making
n= The number of zone informed decisions, especially in analyzing the market and
competition, determining the best location for new outlet
m= The number of candidate locations
expansion and target potential markets. In this study, TM
hi = The population in zone i Smartmap is used as a tool to analyze the flood-prone
cj = The maximum capacity for relief center locations in Kuantan. Fig. 2 shows the map of Kuantan
within 50km of radius from the identification point. The
at location j purple dots represent all the public facilities such as
dij = The distance from relief center location schools, villages, hospitals, banks, shops, hotels and
mosques.
j to zone i For this study, the TM Smart Map has been used
The objective function (1) minimizes the total to retrieve information related to population, distance,
weighed distance from each zone to its closest relief number of flood zones and number of relief centres within
centers. Constraint (2), a relief center can provide service the studied location. Fig. 2 shows the example of the
up to its maximum capacity. Constraint (3) ensures that output from TM Smart Map within 50km radius.
people in all zones are assigned to a relief center.
Constraint (4)-(5) enforce integrality restriction.
B. A Case Study
Kuantan is the state capital of Pahang and the
third largest state in Malaysia. It is located near the mouth
of the Kuantan River and faces the South China Sea.
Kuantan is located at 3°46'1"N 103°13'23"E with the
population density of approximately 607,778. Table I
shows the sub-districts, covered area and the number of
population in Kuantan. During the flood in 2013, Kuantan
was one of the most affected states where the disaster
caused of flood victims to be evacuated to relief centers.
For this reason, Kuantan has been chosen as the study area
to be investigated. In this study, the TM Smart Map was
used to analyze the location of the study area. Detail
explanations about TM Smart Map are discussed below. Fig.2: The location of facilities within the radius of 50km

TABLE I D. Analysis Using TM Smart Map

PROFILE OF STUDY AREA
In this study, TM Smart Map was used as a tool
No Sub- Covered Number of to analyze the flood zone areas in Kuantan. Flood-zone
districts area Populations areas refers to the number of villages that are affected by
(ha) flood. This is a crucial concern for the preparation of the
1 Beserah 3,102.72 22500 evacuation process in order to determine the number of
2 Kuala 79,446.92 374100 relief centers that should be set up for the flood victims.
Kuantan The distance between the flood-zone areas and relief
3 Penor 22,286.16 8600 centers need to also be taken into account in order to
determine the nearest optimal relief center to transfer the

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flood victims. Moreover, the capacity of relief centers
needs to be observed to avoid excess of the number
evacuees over the capacity of the relief centers available.
Equally important is the number of population in the study
area. These listed factors should be considered to
determine the setting up of relief centers during the
evacuation process. Fig 3 shows the 10km radius from
identification point. The selection of the 10km radius from
the identification point was done randomly. Within that
circle, it was observed that the sub districts involved
include Kuala Kuantan and Beserah.
Between these two districts, there were 10 out of
19 flood-zone areas and 12 out of 30 relief centers were
identified. The distributions of the flood zone area and
relief center have been mapped as Fig.4. The zone areas
are represented in green circles, while the purple dots
represent relief centers.
centers are open. Results showed that the average travel
distance per person recorded in this stage was 1.71km. For
the second stage, only four relief centers are open. The
results in Table II indicates that the average travel distance
per person increases to 1.85km. In the third stage whereby
only three relief centers are open, the average travel
distance recorded is also 1.85 km. In the fourth stage when
only two relief centers are open, the average total travel
distance per person increases to 2.51km.Lastly, when we
consider only one relief center is open, the average travel
distance increases as expected to 2.78km.
At the same time, the percentage of population
being allocated is also considered. It is found that 100
percent of flood victims can be allocated to relief centers
when 12, 4, and 3 relief centers are open. When, only one
relief center is open, the percentage drops to only 55.08
percent of the flood victims are able to be allocated. Fig 5
shows the average travel distance verses number of relief
center opened for split is allowed.

TABLE II
AVERAGE TRAVELED DISTANCE –SPLIT ALLOWED
No of Avg travel Percentage No of
relief distance of allocating used relief
centers per person (%) centers
open (km)
All (12) 1.71 100 5
(J,F,A,B,
G)
4 1.85 100 3
Fig.3: The location of facilities within the radius of 10km (A,G,J,C)
3 1.85 100 3(A,G,J)
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 2 2.51 100 2(A,G)
1 2.78 55.08 1(G)
This section discusses the results obtained from
this study. There are two ways to assign the flood victims
from a flood-zone area to a relief center, which are (1) split
is allowed and (2) split is not allowed. The split is allowed
refers to the process of allocating flood victims to the
closet relief centers, but if not all the victims can be
transferred, the remaining of them can be assigned to the
next closest one. Meanwhile, split is not allowed refers to
the process of allocating the flood victims to the nearest
relief centers, but if the nearest relief centre cannot
accommodate the whole volume, the whole population will Fig.5: Average travel distance vs number of relief centers
be transferred to another closest relief center. Detailed for split is allowed
explanations of the results are discussed below.
A. Assuming Split is allowed B. Assuming split is not allowed
The process of assigning flood victims to relief The split is not allowed refers to the process of the
centers is based on the nearest distance calculated between allocating of the whole population flood victims to only
the flood-zone areas and relief centers. The closest one one selected relief center. Table III shows the overall result
will be chosen as a shelter to allocate the victims. In this for the split is not allowed situation. The results shown
study, five stages are identified in the allocation process of indicate that there are slight differences regarding the
flood victims’ placement. The stages involved different average travel distance per person and percentage
numbers of relief centers that are open during the allocation in this category compared to when split is
allocation process. The first stage, involved all the relief allowed. Fig 6 depicts the average travel distance verses

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the number of relief center being open when split is not V. CONCLUSION
allowed.
The aim of this paper is to propose a location
TABLE III
allocation model for selecting relief centers during flood
AVERAGE TRAVELED DISTANCE –SPLIT NOT ALLOWED
disaster. The objective is to minimize the total distance
No of Avg travel Percentage of No of used
that all flood victims need to travel in order to get to the
relief distance/ allocating (%) relief centers
shelter. The results show that of the overall relief centers
centers person(km)
(12 RC) identified, only 5 relief centers should be open to
open
serve the evacuees from 10 flood-zone areas.
All 12) 1.73 100 5(J,F,A,B,G)
4 1.86 100 3(A,G,J,C) TABLE IV
3 1.77 100 3(A,G,J) ALLOCATION OF FLOOD VICTIMS TO RELIEF CENTERS
2 2.58 90.53 2(A,G) No Zone area Relief Centers
1 2.78 55.08 1(G)
1 Kg Bukit SMK Bukit Rangin
Rangin
2 Kg Chendering Sk Padang, SMK Bukit
Rangin
3 Kg Padang 2 Sk Padang, SMK Bukit
Rangin
4 Kg Tiram SMK Bukit Rangin

5 Tmn SRJ (C) Chung Chin

Chenderawasih
Fig. 6: Average travel time vs numbers of relief centers for
the split are not allowed 6 Tmn Fairmont SRJ (C) Chung Chin

C. Overall Results
7 Tmn Pelindung SK Beserah
Based on the previous discussions, the average total
travel distance per person can be minimized when 12 relief
centers are open with the allocation method of split is 8 Tmn Sekilau SRJ (C) Chung Chin
allowed is employed. From the 12 relief centers open, it
can be identified that with only 5 relief centers that should
9 Tmn Sri SRJ ( C ) Chung Chin
be in operation to get the 100 percent of population being
Setongkol
allocated. Table IV states the name of the flood-zone areas
and the name of relief centers that are selected for flood 10 Tmn Tanah SRJ ( C ) Chung Chin, Sk
victim placement. The flood victims from Kg Bukit Putih Sungai Isap Murni
Rangin, Kg Chendering, Kg Padang 2 and Kg Tiram can
be assigned to SMK Bukit Rangin. The victims from Tmn
Chenderawasih, Tmn Fairmont, Tmn Sekilau, Tmn Sri This is tremendous savings for total management
Setongkol and Tmn Tanah Putih can be assigned to SRJ cost during the disaster. The total travel distance per
(C) Chung Chin. Meanwhile, the flood victims from Tmn person is 1.71 km which is within walking distance. In this
Pelindung can be assigned to SK Beserah. The remaining study, we also introduce the use of TM Smart Map in
balance of flood victims from Kg Chendering and Kg gathering and analyzing the data. In our future research,
Padang 2 can be assigned to SK Padang, while the there is a characterization of relief centre based on its
remaining flood victims from Tmn Tanah Putih can be probability being hit by the flood, so – called as “prone
assigned to SK Sg Isap Murni. area” based on certain factors. Modeling these factors in
The locations of the five relief centers are observed the proposed method is a subject for future research. In
as the optimal shelters to move the flood victims or addition, more work should be done for simultaneous
evacuees from the identified flood-zone areas. Hence, it location-allocation problem during the flood disaster to
can be concluded that from the overall relief centers (12 help the evacuation process to be handled quickly and
countries) originally being planned, only five relief centers efficiently.
should have been open to serve the evacuees from ten
flood-zone areas. The total travel distance per person is ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
also noted to be as low as 1.71km which is the minimum.

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This study has been conducted in the area at Kuantan
that frequently hit by floods. Hence, the authors would like
to thank the Department of Irrigation and Drainage
Kuantan, Department of Welfare Malaysia and Telekom
Malaysia for providing data. We also would like to
acknowledge Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia for
funding this research through the Research Management
Institute (RMI) of Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia,
Grant No: 600-RMI/FRGS 5/3(9/2013)).
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Fig.4: The 10 zone area and 12 relief centers in Kuala Kuantan and Beserah district
203 Copyright © 2016. Vandana Publications. All Rights Reserved.
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