2021/2022 Semester 2

PP5015-PP5018 Mitigating Risk and Building Resilience

Instructor: Dr. Vinod Thomas

Email: sppvt@nus.edu.sg
Office: OTH Wing A, #03-02K
Consultation Hours: Tuesday 10 am to 1 pm
Class Hours PP5015: Fri 14 Jan, 8.30 a.m. – 8.00 p.m.
PP5016: Fri 28 Jan, 8.30 a.m. – 8.00 p.m.
PP5017: Fri 11 Feb, 8.30 a.m. – 8.00 p.m.
PP5018: Fri 4 Mar, 8.30 a.m.– 8.00 p.m.
Venue: MM Seminar Room 3-1
Pedagogical and learning support: Ms. Ayesha Kumar

Readings

PP5015 Principles and Applications of Risk Management

Required:
1. World Bank. 2014. Risk and Opportunity. World Development
Report. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16092
2. World Economic Forum. 2018. Global Risks Report.
http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/resilience-in-complex-
organizations/

Recommended:
1. Michel Crouhy, Dan Galai and Robert Mark. 2006. The Essentials of Risk
Management, Chapter 4 - Corporate Governance and Risk Management.
2. Asian Development Bank. 2008. Disaster Management. A Disaster Manager’s
Handbook. W. Nick Carter
3. Michael J. Fagel. 2013. Crisis Management and Emergency Planning:
Preparing for Today's Challenges

PP5016 Environmental Threats and Management Response

Required:
1. World Bank. 1992. Development and the Environment. World Development
Report,. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5975
2. Tietenberg, T and Lewis, L. 2012. Chapter 2 in Environmental and Natural
Resource Economics. 9th Edition. New Jersey, USA: Pearson Education.

Recommended:
1. Thomas V. “A burning question before us”. Jakarta Post. September 17, 2019.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2019/09/17/a-burning-question-
before-the-united-nations.html
2. Perman et al. 2003. Natural Resource and Environmental Economics

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 https://eclass.unipi.gr/modules/document/file.php/NAS247/tselepidis/ATT0010
6.pdf
3. Thomas V. et al, 2000. Chapter 4 in The Quality of Growth. New York, USA:
Oxford University Press.
4. Dasgupta, Partha, The Economics of Biodiversity, 2021.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/final-report-the-economics-of-
biodiversity-the-dasgupta-review

PP5017 Climate Change and Managing Uncertainty

Required:
1. World Bank. 2010. Development and Climate Change. World Development
Report. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4387
2. Thomas, Vinod. 2018. Climate Change and Natural Disasters.
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781351527927
3. Asian Development Bank. 2013. The Rise of Natural Disasters in Asia and the
Pacific. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank.

Recommended:
1. Thomas V. “Singapore’s Twin Imperatives for Climate Action”. Straits Times.
September 2019.
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/singapores-twin-imperatives-for-climate-
action
2. Stern, N. H. 2007. Chapters 18-20 in The economics of climate change: The
Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The sixth assessment report,
2021. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
Vinod Thomas, podcasts on climate policy:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/green-pulse-podcast-
overcoming-obstacles-to-pricing-carbon-right
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/green-pulse-podcast-taking-
climate-action-by-putting-a-price-on-carbon-pt-1

PP5018 Disaster Scenarios and Resilience Building

Required:
1. Jon Coaffee and Peter Lee. 2016. Urban Resilience
https://www.macmillanihe.com/page/detail/Urban-
Resilience/?K=9781137288837
2. Hallegatte et al. 2017. Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the
face of natural disasters
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/512241480487839624/Unbreakab
le-building-the resilience-of-the-poor-in-the-face-of-natural-disasters
3. ESCAP-UNISDR. 2012. Reducing Vulnerability and Exposure to Disasters.
Bangkok, Thailand: United Nations.
4. World Development Report by World Bank (2014)
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16092

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Recommended:

5. Boardman, A.E., D. H. Greenberg, A. R. Vining and D. L. Weimer. 2014. Cost-

Benefit Analysis: Concept and Practice, 4th Edition, Pearson New
International Edition. Chapter 6.
6. Buchner, B., Trabacchi, C., Mazza, F., Abramskiehn, D. and Wang, D. 2015.
Global Landscape of Climate Finance. Climate Policy Initiative.
7. Markus Brunnermeier, The Resilient Society, Princeton University Press, 2021.
8. Jon Coaffee and Peter Lee. 2016. Urban Resilience
https://www.macmillanihe.com/page/detail/Urban-
Resilience/?K=9781137288837

Course Motivation

Risks, be they financial crises, spread of epidemics or weather events, are ever
present and often on the rise in today’s highly integrated global economy. Many of
these risks, for example, climate-related floods or wild-fires, are in good measure
human-made, even when they appear to be totally outside one’s direct span of control.
There is the need therefore to understand principles of both how to respond to risk as
well as how to prevent or reduce risk.

Governments, businesses and households need to confront and ameliorate these

risks, both through emergency and crisis management on the one side, and risk
management and prevention on the other. The rationale of the course is to offer high
value addition on risk management and resilience building for actual and potential
leaders, managers and staff across a range of sectors, and especially those on the
front-line of environmental and climate concerns.

Course Description

The content of PP5015 through PP5018 is designed to elucidate concepts explained

in the literature and illustrate good practices embedded in country experiences. While
risks cover a broad spectrum, the focus on the environment and climate change draws
both on their growing concern in Southeast Asia and the urgency to deal with
them. Aside from analyzing the sources of these risks, the course sets out tools for
effective responses, including for Singapore.

The skills offered cover:

i. Risk measurement;
ii. Financing plans;
iii. Cost-benefit analysis;
iv. Scenario building;
v. The economics and politics of decision-making.

The themes of the course are reflected in the following questions:

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Module 1. PP5015 Principles and Applications of Risk Management
1. What are the sources of risk faced by governments, businesses and
households?
2. What are the key principles and good practices in lowering risks and
strengthening resilience?

Module 2. PP5016 Environmental Threats and Management Response

3. What are the drivers of environmental degradation in differing country and
sector settings?
4. How can environmental risks be better mitigated, considering the benefits and
costs of interventions?

Module 3. PP5017 Climate Change and Managing Uncertainty

5. How is climate change affecting lives and livelihood, including in Southeast Asia
and Singapore?
6. What instruments can policymakers use to combat climate change, and what
are the strengths, weaknesses, and trade-offs of the various instruments?

Module 4. PP5018 Disaster Scenarios and Resilience Building

7. How are countries dealing with growing risks, and what can we learn from their
experiences?
8. How can governments, businesses and households in deal with the constraints
to reducing risk and build resilience?

Lesson structure

Each day of a module would broadly have two segments, one in the morning and the
other in the afternoon. The first half would focus more on concepts and principles and
the second half on applications and work outs. Roughly speaking the first of the two
questions listed above under each module would be the focus of the first half and the
second one of the second half.

Teaching philosophy and format

The modules use a lecture-based approach, supplemented by class discussions and

case studies. Each session will begin with an introduction of key concepts and theories
to be followed by real world applications. A combination of class formats will be
adopted, including lectures, discussions on required readings, and group exercises or
case studies. Students will be expected to familiarize themselves with the readings
before class and should be prepared to engage in a discussion with the instructor.

We will rely on a variety of sources to supplement the lectures. A selection of books,

publications, and opinion and news articles will be used to enhance your
understanding of the key issues and how they are currently being addressed. In
addition, we will use rigorous empirical methods to evaluate existing and proposed
programs, as well as to design innovative policy solutions.

There will be one or two guest speakers matching the theme of the week.

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The course will encourage you to use both qualitative and quantitative tools as best
suited to the problems, but econometrics or mathematical methods or impact
evaluation are not pre- requisites for taking this course.

Working in groups
You will be asked to form small groups (around 5-7 students per group depending on
the class size) at the beginning of the semester. You are expected to work with your
fellow team members in reviewing the concepts and theories presented in class,
analyzing case studies, and preparing for the final exam at the end of the module.

Core learning objectives

You will understand:

Module 1. PP5015 Principles and Applications of Risk Management

• The link between probabilities and impacts in determining risks.
• How investments and policies affect risk profiles.

Module 2. PP5016 Environmental Threats and Management Response

• The link between environmental degradation and disasters.
• How to determine cost efficient ways of cutting pollution and manage waste.

Module 3. PP5017 Climate Change and Managing Uncertainty

• How disaster risk is a function not only of communities’ exposure and
vulnerability but also climate hazards.
• The challenges faced by governments, policymakers, and experts in dealing
with climate- related disasters.

Module 4. Disaster Scenarios and Resilience Building

• The stages of the disaster management cycle, and what comprises each stage
• How countries, including those in Southeast Asia, can see improved scenarios
of risk and resilience.

Skills

The skills offered in this program cover:

i. Risk measurement
ii. Financing plans
iii. Cost-benefit analysis
iv. Scenario building
v. The economics and politics of decision-making.

You will be able to:

• Know the basic principles to quantify the impact of a natural disaster
• Assess the effectivity of climate change policies or programs
• Make recommendations on the proper instruments that governments,
businesses and households can use to address disaster risk and climate
change
• Prepare you to play a professional role in disaster risk reduction

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 Preclusion

PP5194 Natural Disasters, Environment and Climate Change

Assessment

a. 20%: Class participation, reflecting the quantity and quality of

interventions
b. 40%: Quiz given in class, or posted at the end of day of class, with
responses due to be uploaded in LumiNUS within 24 hours
c. 40%:
• Individual paper for PP5015 and PP5018: 1000 words (excluding
footnotes, graphs, charts, etc.) on topic discussed and agreed to
during PP5015 and PP5018 class; due one week after PP5015
and PP5018 class respectively
• Group paper for PP5016 and PP5017: A 10-slide PowerPoint
presentation on topic discussed and agreed during PP5016 and
PP5017 class; due one week after PP5016 and PP5017 class
respectively

About the instructor

Dr Vinod Thomas received a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago

and has previously taught at Vassar College, the University of Sao Paulo and been a
guest lecturer at Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins University, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, among others. He has addressed various global fora in all
regions, including World Economic Forum, European Evaluation Association, Skoll
Foundation, United Nations Agencies; and various Universities. His professional work
has spanned Climate Change; Development economics; Trade Policy;
Macroeconomics; Macro-sectoral links; Environmental Policy; Agricultural Policy;
Urban Economics; Income Distribution; Poverty Measures; Asian experience; Latin
American experience. He has been a Distinguished Fellow in Development
Management at Asian Institute of Management, Manila.

He has written 16 books, among them: Economic Evaluation of Sustainable

Development, Palgrave, 2019 (with Namrata Chindarkar); Climate Change and
Natural Disasters. Transaction Publishers: Rutgers, 2017; Multilateral Banks and the
Development Process: Vital Links in the Results Chain, with Xubei Luo. Transaction
Publishers. 2012; From Inside Brazil: Development in a Land of Contrasts, Stanford
University Press, 2006 (English and Portuguese); The Quality of Growth, with co-

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authors. Oxford University Press, 2000; The Challenge of Development, World
Development Report 1991, Oxford University Press, 1991; Best Practices in Trade
Policy Reform, with J. Nash, Oxford University Press, 1991; and Agricultural Price
Policies and the Developing Countries, with G.S. Tolley and C.M. Wong, Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1982. He has likewise authored numerous peer reviewed
journal articles and opinion pieces.

Dr Thomas was Director-General of Independent Evaluation at Asian Development

Bank (2011-2016) and previously Director-General and Senior Vice President of
Independent Evaluation at the World Bank Group (2005 – 2011). Prior to this, he held
various positions at the World Bank including as Country Director, Brazil (2001 –
2005), Vice President, World Bank Institute (2000 – 2001); Chief Economist, Asia
Region (1991 – 1994), and Staff Director, World Development Report 1991 (1990 –
1991). Recently he has been Special Adviser to the President, Chair, Evaluation
Cooperation Group; consultant to the UN on evaluation; Asian Institute of
Management, member of newly formed Board of Odebrecht; Advisor, Results for
Development; Advisor, Western Michigan University, Economics; Advisor to the World
Bank’s Board of Directors; Advisor, Emerging Markets Forum; and Member of the
Board for several journals.

He enjoys working with others and sharing analytical and practical experiences in
ways that improve our understanding and applications. With a keen eye on analytical
and quantitative rigor, he also stresses the qualitative side and the critical role of inter-
disciplinary interactions. He values working with others on collaborative projects, like
a co-authored book on Evaluation Methods and Good Practices he is currently
involved at LKY. He also hopes to contribute to ramping up a high impact program at
LKY on climate change, environment and natural resources.
He is currently working on a manuscript “Risk and Resilience in an Era of Climate
Change” for Palgrave/McMillan.

*****

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