Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

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Groundwater for Sustainable Development

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Research paper

GIS-based modelling of climate variability impacts on groundwater quality:

Cape Flats aquifer, Cape Town, South Africa
Tesfaye Tessema Gintamo *, Haile Mengistu, Thokozani Kanyerere
Environmental and Water Science Program, Department of Earth Science, University of the Western Cape, Bellville,7535, Cape Town, South Africa

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The need to improve groundwater security remains critical, especially in urban areas where demand for
Cape flats groundwater as an alternative source of water supply is increasing following unprecedented population growth.
Cape Town Climate change continues to threaten groundwater resources in such areas. This study assessed and analysed data
Climate change
from a variety of sources that required holistic analytical tools to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on
Geospatial modelling
groundwater quality at the local level. We evaluated how climate conditions affect groundwater quality using a
Groundwater quality
WaterWorld model hydrological model (WaterWorld model) in a GIS context. The Cape Flats Aquifer in the city of Cape Town in
South Africa was chosen as a case study. The WaterWorld model was used to calculate hydrologic scenarios based
on climate change factors and groundwater quality parameters for the period 1950–2000. Mean annual pre­
cipitation and temperature were simulated using the multi-model mean and Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5 for the years 2041–2060. Simulation results showed that annual precipitation will increase until
2041 and then decrease until 2060. A significant temperature increase of 1.9 ◦ C–2.3 ◦ C was predicted. Water
balance simulations showed a decrease of about 8.6% per year under the future dry climate. ArcGIS 10.3 was
used to combine geospatial data and develop a groundwater vulnerability map. Modelling analysis based on GIS
showed that the southern and central suburbs of the study area are more susceptible to groundwater contami­
nation and have high surface runoff and higher average temperatures. The groundwater vulnerability index and
electrical conductivity concentrations showed a strong positive correlation when the model was validated using
linear regression analysis (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.05). In this article, we recommend the use of the WaterWorld model
in a GIS environment to simulate hydrologic scenarios on climate change and groundwater quality parameters to
provide practical and feasible insights for actions to improve groundwater management.

1. Introduction Although urban areas are at high risk of groundwater contamination,

Groundwater is understood to be key to improving water security
challenges in an era where demand for groundwater as an option of
water supply source is intensifying. Globally, 60% of the population
depends on groundwater sources and the demand for such sources is
likely to increase with the rise in extreme events such as floods and
droughts (Arnell et al., 2015; Boko et al., 2007; Knueppe, 2011). Climate
factors, which include precipitation and temperature, affect the hydro­
logical cycle, which in turn has an effect on the quality of groundwater
(Abbas et al., 2016). Extreme climate events can exacerbate various
types of water pollution from sediments, nutrients, and salts posing a
pressing threat to water quality, particularly in urban areas (McGill
et al., 2019; Miller and Hutchins, 2017a; Olivier and Xu, 2019).
evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater quality is a
difficult technical challenge (Kumar, 2012a; Ugwu, 2019). The main
problem is the poor understanding about how groundwater and hy­
drological processes interact at different spatial and temporal scales
(Salvadore et al., 2015). Modelling with systems geographic information
(GIS) is a crucial tool for groundwater resource protection and man­
agement because it identifies vulnerable zones at different spatial scales
(Khatami and Khazaei, 2014; Rawal et al., 2016; Tsihrintzis et al., 1996).
The objective of this work was to address these knowledge gaps by
conducting a case study in the Cape Flats catchment using GIS-based
hydrological modelling.
In recent years, research on hydrodynamic effects on groundwater
has attracted the attention of those seeking to better understand and

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: 4600336@myuwc.ac.za, tgintamo@uwc.ac.za, tesg2005@yahoo.com (T.T. Gintamo), hmengistu@uwc.ac.za (H. Mengistu), tkanyerere@uwc.
ac.za (T. Kanyerere).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100663
Received 4 October 2020; Received in revised form 25 August 2021; Accepted 28 August 2021
Available online 10 September 2021
2352-801X/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
T.T. Gintamo et al.
interpret climate data for decision makers (CSAG, 2014; Kumar, 2012b;
Rudd et al., 2018). Demlie (2015), Jakeman et al. (2016), and Khatami
and Khazaei (2014) further argue that better understanding is important
to provide a framework for groundwater protection and sustainable
management. Differences in water quality can be explored spatially and
temporally using GIS-based models. Sheng (2013b) used a GIS and hy­
drologic modelling tool that considered groundwater pollution and
management under changing climate variability in Rio Grande Basin.
The main objective of using GIS was to simplify climate information for
decision-makers to use for practical tasks in addressing climate change
issues. Farjad et al. (2016) offered geographically distributed modelling
tools to highlight the complexities of analyzing the impacts of meteo­
rological change on water resource management. Demlie (2015) and
Troudi et al. (2020) assessed salinity concentrations in near-surface
aquifers in central Ethiopia and Northern Tunisia, respectively. They
discussed how climatic conditions have a substantial impact on the
hydrological cycle. Soesbergen and Mulligan (2014a) and Nashwan and
Shahid (2020) used general circulation models (GCMs) to examine the
effects of climate change on groundwater. Overall, the studies demon­
strate how GIS -based modeling tools can be utilized to investigate the
effects of climate variability on groundwater-related basins and to
spatially depict climate change using remote sensing data.
In South Africa, groundwater security is becoming an increasing
concern due to rising domestic, agricultural and industrial water de­
mands. The recent below-average rainfall and water crisis in Cape Town
has heightened concerns about water scarcity and pollution, and
attention to drought has led to increased interest in groundwater
development as a means of diversifying water sources (Ahjum et al.,
2015). Cape Town, as in most other cities, faces highly variable and
uncertain hydrologic conditions that threaten unconfined aquifers (Jack
et al., 2016; Luker and Rodina, 2017; Phillips et al., 2014; Scovronick
et al., 2018; Ziervogel et al., 2010). The problems of severe groundwater
degradation are exacerbated by changing climate conditions that may
increase urban stormwater runoff and transport nutrient and sediment
loads from industrial and agricultural areas (Jun et al., 2010; Verweij,
2010; Wilby et al., 2006). However, understanding and predicting the
possible effects of climate change on shallow coastal aquifers is a
pressing concern.
The Cape Flats Aquifer ( CFA) is a vital groundwater resource in the
metropolitan region of Cape Town, to support the ability of municipal
water supplies to meet increasing water demands. Temperature in­
creases, along with fluctuating and sometimes sparse precipitation, can
have significant hydrologic consequences that significantly impact
groundwater quality through increased nutrient and sediment loading to
underlying aquifers. Previous efforts to protect aquifers in the Cape Flats
have been made by identifying potential groundwater pollution sources
and contaminant pathways (Adelana et al., 2010; Davis et al., 2011; Hay
et al., 2016; Maclear, 1995; Mauck, 2015; Gnandji et al., 2013a; Umvoto
Africa and Ninham Shand Consulting Services, 2008; Xu and Adams,
2006). However, when scaled up and run, there are limited quantitative
results of spatial modelling at the local scale (in terms of climate vari­
ables and contamination risk). Moreover, studies on groundwater risk
associated with climate change have not been explicitly explored on the
Cape Flats catchment. Therefore, this work represents a new and inno­
vative contribution to spatial modelling research and is linked to
assisting decision-makers in providing the study results into practice.
The objectives of this paper was to evaluate the effect of climate
variability on groundwater quality in the Cape Flats (South Africa) using
the hydrological model (WaterWorld model) in combination with
geographic information system (GIS). The research focuses on the
determination of temperature and precipitation and the consequences of
variations in hydrological conditions and the resulting impact on
contamination risk at the local level.
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Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
2. Material and methods
2.1. Description of the study area
The study area includes a large part of the metropolis Cape Town and
lies between latitudes − 33.8125◦ to − 34.125◦ S and longitudes
18.375◦ –18.8125◦ E (Fig. 1) and covers an area of about 744 km2. The
Cape Flats area covers the low-lying flat terrain from Table Bay to False
Bay. In addition, a sand strip extends along the west coast from Cape
Town through Bellville and Bloubergstrand to Atlantis (Sparks et al.,
2017) (Fig. 2) (Fig. 3).
The study area experiences hot, dry summers and cold, wet winters,
and a semi-arid climate comparable to the Mediterranean with low
rainfall and extreme temperatures. The mean annual precipitation was
511 mm as measured at the meteorological stations of the airport Cape
Town for the period 1979 to 2018, with a range of 284 mm–707 mm
(Fig. 4). The area of study has an annual temperature range of 0–18.5 ◦ C.
The research area is defined by a large, steep sandy area that con­
nects the Cape Peninsula’s hard rock with the low-lying coast (Conrad
et al., 2004). The main groundwater recharge zones are located in the
higher elevation mountainous parts, which are in the eastern portion of
the region. The elevation of the catchment ranges from low lying areas at
sea level to higher elevations - up to 1057 m above sea level.
In the study area, the geomorphology is complex due to the effects of
the undulating topography. The edges in the northwest and southwest
are characterised by steep slopes. In the central part of the area, a
considerable part has topographic elevations between 0 and 66 m,
especially along the coastline False Bay.
2.2. Geology and hydrological description of the study area
Geologically, the catchment area of Cape Flats consists of sedimen­
tary deposits of the Sandveld Group. It is assigned to the Cenozoic age.
The sedimentary layers overlie an extensive impermeable layer of
Malmesbury Shale. The lower bedrock consists of Cape Granite. The
geologic unit generally includes fluvial, marine, Aeolian Tertiary, and
Quaternary deposits (Adelana, 2010). Lithological deposits include
interbedded sands, clays, clayey sands, limestone, sandstone, coarse
gravels and peat.
From the oldest rocks to the youngest sediments, the stratigraphic
units can be summarized as follows: firstly unconsolidated to semi-
consolidated sediments - sand, limestone, calcarenite, eolite, conglom­
erate, clay, gravel and limestone; Aeolian sand, deposited as dunes over
marine sands, is the second type; and third, arenite, consisting of pre­
dominantly arenitic rocks (sandstone, feldspathic sandstone).
An impervious stratum of Malmesbury Shales and Cape Granite lie
beneath the shallow primary coastal aquifer. The aquifer is currently
used for residential and school garden irrigation, but primarily for minor
irrigation. The aquifer consists of coarse-grained clean sand and has
significant groundwater potential. Throughout the watershed, the water
level is at shallow depths, making it vulnerable to contamination
(Adelana and Jovanovic, 2010). This poses a risk of vulnerability in the
In largely populated coastal areas of a rapidly growing city such as Cape
Town.
2.3. Climate change impacts on groundwater quality
There is a growing appreciation that more needs to be known about
how climate variability affects groundwater resources. Precipitation,
temperature, and recharge conditions are all climate variables that
significantly affect groundwater. The hydrologic cycle is likely to change
in urban areas as recharge rates are reduced by increasing temperatures
and lower precipitation. Lower precipitation and higher temperatures
will also increase salinity as flushing does not occur. During extreme
precipitation events, there is a risk of higher pollutant loading to runoff
due to overloading of wastewater treatment plants (Velazquez et al.,
T.T. Gintamo et al.
Fig. 1. Location map of the Cape Flats with boreholes.
2015). Accurate knowledge of stormwater runoff is also necessary for a
proper understanding of groundwater pollution in urban areas. Pollu­
tion comes from a variety of sources, including industrial effluents,
landfill overflow, urban stormwater runoff, and sewage treatment fa­
cilities (Bhaduri et al., 2000; Ghaleni and Ebrahimi, 2015; Yao et al.,
2015). Climate change has been shown to affect rainfall, evapotranspi­
ration and surface runoff with sediment nitrogen, phosphorus and ni­
trate loading (Ross, 2014). Consequently, increased precipitation due to
global warming, especially from agricultural watersheds, would indicate
higher levels of nitrogen and phosphorus. The presence of trace metals
in stormwater runoff may also be of concern (Mauck, 2015). Further­
more, understanding the origin of chemical parameters and aquifer
properties is crucial to determining the degree of correlation between
climate variability and hydrogeochemistry. Geochemical changes are
more rapid in shallower aquifers in response to changes in climate
variables.
2.4. Model description
Simulations of the hydrodynamic threat of climate change have
become increasingly important in modelling communities. Climate
models have emerged as essential tools for projecting climate change as
well as assessing hydrological impacts (Kour et al., 2016). However, one
of the well-known hurdles in climate studies is the complex of interac­
tion of multiple hydrological systems (Models et al., 2014). In this
context, downscaling methods for GCM results have been proposed to
provide more accurate information in time and space for a range of
climate variables.
WorldClim is a variable spatial resolution database that provides
global historical climate data. The spatially distributed input parameters
are most commonly used for the development of spatial models in the
field of active research under changing climate conditions. The
3
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change
assessment has considered various models that project greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios on a global scale (Freund et al., 2017; WMO-UNEP,
2008). The third and fourth IPCC Assessment Reports incorporated es­
timates of future changing climate from Phase 3 of the project (CMIP3).
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is based on phase 5 of the project
(CMIP5). CMIP5 includes models from multiple modelling centres
around the world.
Climate change predictions have been made using general atmo­
spheric circulation models (GCMs). However, the Global Climate Models
(GCMs) are too coarse to provide meaningful information. Downscaling
approaches are required to climate change information that is not
detailed enough to make decisions. Global Circulation Model (GCM)
climate scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5)
emissions scenarios were used in combination with hydrologic models to
examine the effects of future climate change on hydrologic processes
and thus groundwater quality. A technique for representing further
details of spatial complexity and geographic patterns is essential for
modelling climate change scenarios. WaterWorld is a popular hydro­
logical model for analyzing the effects of various climate change sce­
narios (Mulligan, 2015a). It is, therefore, logical to choose the
WaterWorld Policy Support System model to examine a broad array of
possible climate change scenarios on groundwater quality. The current
study was prompted by the growing need to apply such an approach to
recent developments in Cape Town, South Africa’s Cape Flats aquifer.
2.4.1. WaterWorld Policy Support System (WaterWorld model)
WaterWorld is a physically-based, spatially explicit hydrologic
model (http://www.policysupport.org/waterworld). It can be used
under both baseline and special scenario conditions to analyze the hy­
drological and water management risks associated with land-based ac­
tivities and climate change. Its key benefit is that it contains all of the
T.T. Gintamo et al.
Fig. 2. Geological map of the study area with boreholes and rivers.
data needed for the application at a very high spatial resolution (1 km2
or 1 ha), making it feasible and successful in areas with little or no data
(Mulligan, 2013a). The WaterWorld system is also flexible enough that
users can upload data in the format of simple ESRI ARCASCII grids if
their data is better than what is available in the system. The results are
presented graphically as GIS files that can be retrieved for further
analysis and application.
The WaterWorld model has been demonstrated to be relevant
anyplace in the world, provided that users verify and validate the
simulation results at their study sites. The model structure includes
variables for atmospheric processes, precipitation, evapotranspiration
(ET), and water balance (Mulligan, 2013b).
There are five steps to follow when using WaterWorld for modelling.
The initial step is to define the analysis area at a resolution of 1 km2 or 1
ha. The second step involves preparing the data (www.policysupport.
org/simterra). The third step is to run the baseline simulation. The last
step is to apply all the scenarios options to assess “alternatives”.
Rerunning the simulation with the changes allows an analysis of the
impact compared to the baseline. In the final step, the results can also be
examined in the form of maps, graphs, or a description of the results
generated by the model. Model results include wind-driven precipita­
tion, fog formation and deposition, ET and the water balance for each
time step, monthly maps, and annual integrals. The maps can also be
visualised online using many built-in web mapping tools (geo-browsers).
Regarding water quality, WaterWorld produces an indicator of the
potential risk of water contamination from human activities called the
Human Footprint on the Water Quality Index (Fan et al., 2015; Mulligan,
2009). It also measures how much upstream and local water is affected
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Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
by human activities, and precipitation in upstream human-influenced
areas is considered a warning indicator of likely water pollution
downstream. One of the benefits of using WaterWorld is the ability to
compare and evaluate different variables (Jenkins, 2018; Rasmussen
et al., 2013). Second, with the global datasets provided with the model,
it is possible to simulate further changes using WaterWorld. The
WaterWorld method was first applied in 2009 and has since been used in
numerous studies (Bruijnzeel et al., 2011; Mulligan, 2013b).
2.4.2. GIS in hydrological modelling
Groundwater contamination assessment using a spatial modelling
approach is becoming increasingly popular in the context of ever-
changing environmental parameters. The technique based on GIS has
created new possibilities in the research of climate change. GIS offers the
possibility of spatially explicit analysis of model results and their rep­
resentation in maps. In addition, GIS simplifies climate data so that
decision makers can better understand when to intervene in the face of
climate change challenges. The need of GIS to represent the geographic
heterogeneity of hydrological models is recommended by Gintamo
(2015), Khan et al. (2017a), Khatami and Khazaei (2014) and Peter et al.
(2018).
GIS has recently become a tool of central importance for the analysis
of groundwater quality parameters such as nitrate (NO3− ) and chloride
(Cl− ). Thematic maps for the water quality indicators were created using
GIS and then overlaid for interpretation. A map of groundwater pollu­
tion risk was created using ArcGIS software. Finally, geochemical data
were interpreted and then water quality was calculated at specific points
throughout the study area.
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 3. Solid waste depot and stormwater bodies.

Fig. 4. Annual precipitation for 39 years (station Cape Town airport, from 1979 to 2018).

2.5. Data sources

Table 1
Information and sources of data used in this study.
The impact of climate change on groundwater supply needs to be
assessed using observed climate data from appropriate meteorological Data type Detail of data Data Sources Output layer

stations. We prepared data from a review of existing literature and Remote sensing DEM (30 m) USGS Slope
compiled information on Cape Flats based on analysed water quality image
Meteorology Precipitation, South Africa Weather Precipitation,
parameters from wells in the study area. Additional primary data were
data Temperature Services Temperature
obtained from satellite data sources and image processing (Table 1). Water quality Groundwater National Groundwater Groundwater
Information was obtained from remote sensing satellite data and data quality Achieve (NGWA) of quality map
analysed to calculate the topographic elevation of area of the study. DWS
Elevation and slope data were acquired from the digital elevation model Waste disposal Waste depots City of Cape Town Maps of flood-
site prone areas.
(ASTER -DEM) using USGS satellite data with a spatial resolution of 30

5
T.T. Gintamo et al.
m (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/) in ArcGIS 10.3 software. This
application is a remarkable advantage for understanding surface runoff
and could be used in practise for flood management and control system.
Meteorological data were obtained from the South African Meteoro­
logical Service (SAWS) (http://www.weathersa.co.za/). The rainfall and
temperature data at Cape Town Airport were examined from 1979 to
2018. In addition, the data were used to verify model input data and
validate the WaterWorld model. In addition, improper landfills trans­
port pollutants through runoff and contaminate near-surface ground­
water. Landfill information was provided in online maps of Cape Town
(https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/EGISViewer/).
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Historical meteorological data analysis
Climate data from the airport meteorological stations of Cape Town,
covering the 39 years from 1979 to 2018, show significant rainfall
variations between 284 mm and 707 mm. According to the climate
statistics on Cape Town, the year with the highest annual rainfall was
1976 (707 mm), while the year with the lowest rainfall was 2017 (284
mm). During this period, the average annual precipitation was 511 mm.
Fig. 5 shows monthly mean temperature from 1950 to 2000 (left
bars) to 2041–2060 (green bars - right side), showing a significant in­
crease of more than 2.17 ◦ C across the CFA catchment. The top middle
row indicates the mean temperature for the period, and the bottom row
shows the minimum temperature change (◦ C). The highest temperature
occurred in January (29.7 ◦ C) and the lowest in July (15.7 ◦ C).
The research finds a considerable decrease in annual precipitation in
the Cape Flats catchment. Whereas, the annual temperature in the area
showed a significant increasing trend during the period 1979–2018,
which is similar to the climate trends observed in other studies for the
study area by (Adelana et al., 2010). These results suggest that the Cape
Flats faces climate variability and that the patterns discovered will
intensify in the future.
3.2. Climate change simulation over (1950–2000) and (2041–2060)
In this study, a WaterWorld simulation was conducted for the Cape
Flats watershed and the difference in hydrologic variables between
baselines and future scenarios was estimated using a 1950–2000 base­
line period. To assess the threat to freshwater from climate change, 19
Fig. 5. Monthly minimum, maximum and mean temperature (Cape Town Airport, recorded from 1979 to 2018) compared with WaterWorld model.
6
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
CMIP5 climate models have been used in modeling research (Table 2).
Fig. 6 through Fig. 9 illustrate the ensemble results for precipitation,
temperature, evapotranspiration, and water balance (Table 3).
3.2.1. Temperature
Elevated temperatures affect water quality by increasing evapo­
transpiration, which can lead to higher concentrations of salts. In
addition, higher evapotranspiration is likely to reduce groundwater
recharge. Climate modelling results indicate that the coastal plain of
Cape Flats in particular will experience an increase in temperature. In
the Cape Flats, the GCM model results show a temperature increase of
1.9 ◦ C–2.3 ◦ C for the period 2041–2060 (Fig. 7). The result is consistent
with the study by Jack et al. (2016), whose climate change projections
for Cape Town determined a temperature rises the scope of 1.25–2.0 ◦ C
for the period 2046–2060.
3.2.2. Precipitation
Changes in precipitation ultimately affect groundwater quality, as
runoff in urban areas increases nutrient loading and can enter aquifers.
However, this all depends on various factors that affect groundwater
recharge from industrial and agricultural areas. The climate of Cape
Town is determined by the complex and diverse topography of the
region.
The hydrological baseline using the WaterWorld model showed
precipitation amounts between (0.012–1182 mm/year). The amount of
precipitation in the studied area varies both temporally and spatially. In
comparison to the lower watershed, the upper catchment receives much
more precipitation (Fig. 8). Because of high elevational gradients and
the impact of topographic exposure to wind-driven rain, rainfall distri­
bution is notably unequal in mountainous regions. The rainfall ranges
from 728 mm to 1182 mm, from 654 mm to 728 mm, and from 0.012
mm to 654 mm for the upper, middle and lower zones, respectively.
The precipitation projections show a big spread in the catchment
Table 2
Description of the climate change scenarios used in this study for the Cape Flats.
IPCC Emission GCM Downscaled Year
Assessment Scenario
CMIP5 RCP 8.5 Worldclim Mean of 19 2041–2060
models
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 6. Mean annual temperature in the Cape Flats (1950–2000).

Fig. 7. Projected change in mean Temperature downscaled for the period (2041–2060).

7
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 8. 19-model mean ensemble rainfall change baseline projected (1950–2000) (Left) and (241–2060) (Right).

Fig. 9. Actual evapotranspiration for the baseline (1950–2000) and for the period 2041–2060.

8
T.T. Gintamo et al.
with annual precipitation varying between 0 and 1042 mm/year
(Fig. 8). The central catchment receives annual rainfall ranges from 0
mm to 578 mm.
3.2.3. Evapotranspiration
Annual actual evapotranspiration (ActEvap) is lower in the mountain
zone (between 92 and 444 mm/year) and higher in the plain (between
445 mm/year and 1197 mm/year) (Fig. 9). The maps of rainfall and
ActEvap show significant differences in response to precipitation across
the catchment, with large differences between elevation zones.
Fig. 9 (left side) shows the results of the model simulating annual
evapotranspiration for the projection year 2060. The simulations show
an increase in actual annual evapotranspiration of 79 mm between 2041
and 2060. According to the results of this study, the average annual
actual evapotranspiration in the area Cape Town is 540 mm per year,
which is 29 mm/year more than the mean annual precipitation.
3.2.4. Impacts of climate variability on water balance
Groundwater recharge by water balance method is calculated as
grid-cell precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration (AET) (Mulligan,
2015b). Fig. 10a (left side) shows water balance produced by Water­
World for the simulation period (1950–2000) and the projected water
balance for the mean of 19 GCMs to 2060. On the otherhand, Fig. 10b
(right side) illustrates the projected water balance in the basin for the
mean of 19 GCMs. Different zones can be derived from the model results.
Most of the central catchment receives about − 184 to 204 mm/year of
recharge. At the foot of the mountains, recharge rates between 204 and
370 mm/year are projected (Fig. 10b (right side)).
Annual groundwater recharge shows considerable spatial variation
with values ranging from − 253 to 824 mm/year. According to our re­
sults, the long-term average groundwater recharge for the same area is
243 mm/year. Code G22Carea is located in the Elsieskraal River, which
Fig. 10. Water balance generated by WaterWorld for simulation period (1950–2000) and the projected water balance for the mean of 19 GCMs by 2060 in the
CF catchment.
9
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
runs from the northeastern side to the southwestern side (Table 3). G22D
is located in the catchment of Diep River and G22E is found in the Kuils
River watershed of the study area (Wp, 2017).
3.3. Impact of climate change on groundwater quality of the study area
Climate change is expected to reduce the world’s groundwater re­
sources and increase competition for water as droughts become more
frequent. As temperatures rise, concentrations of pollutants in shallow
aquifers also increase. During floods, for example, effluents from
wastewater treatment plants and landfills increase risks to drinking
water quality (Fig. 11).
Salt concentration in groundwater depends on recharge times.
Groundwater recharge during dry seasons can result in a substantial
increase in salt concentration, while salinity is relatively low during wet
seasons (Dragoni and Sukhija, 2008). The increase in chloride and ni­
trate in groundwater occurs in wet seasons, as increased infiltration
allows large amounts of pore water to be discharged (Panwar and
Chakrapani, 2018).
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change and climate
variability helps to facilitate groundwater quality monitoring and pro­
tection of aquifers from contamination. However, the complex nature of
natural climate variability often makes the reliable characterization of
resulting groundwater contamination problematic. The GIS-based
model has been used to assess the risk of groundwater contamination
(Alberto et al., 2014; Ferrer et al., 2012; Gharbia et al., 2016; Khan et al.,
2017b; Machiwal et al., 2018; Miller and Hutchins, 2017b; Usali et al.,
2010). The GIS technique allows direct identification of areas at risk for
potential groundwater contamination.
Fig. 12 shows the changes in the pollution index of the human
footprint when applying the WaterWorld climate scenarios. In the mean
situation, human footprint pollution (HF) increases in some places,
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Table 3
Comparison of recharge values in the model with other sources.
Area Local studies (Gerber, BRBS method (DWAF, GRAII method (DAWF, GRDM method (DWAF, CMB method (Segun et al., WaterWorld Model (current
code 1980) 2002) 2006) 2006) 2010) study)

G22C 115–267 mm 90.35 mm 67.84 mm 70.45 mm 29 mm (UWC) − 253 – 524 mm

G22D 138–327 mm 112.13 mm 104.79 mm 110.41 mm 52 mm (Mitchells Plain) 17–322 mm
G22E 105–243 mm 55 mm 48.63 mm 61.91 mm 17–322 mm

Note: Local AET is maintained by upstream sources of water and/or groundwater when the water balance is negative (Michael et al., 2010; Umvoto Africa and Ninham
Shand Consulting Services, 2008); CMB (Chloride Mass Balance).

Fig. 11. Annual runoff in the study area (1950–2000).

Fig. 12. Groundwater risk of contamination based on human footprint on water quality map (Based on Mulligan, 2019).

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T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 13. Contamination risk in groundwater based on the Human Footprint on Water Quality Index (HF) (%).

while it decreases in most parts of the country due to higher climate

variables. The HF decreases significantly in some places in the south and
far east of the study area where precipitation and evapotranspiration are
higher, while it increases elsewhere. According to the results, climate
change is more likely to affect areas already stressed by salt and storm
water.
Fig. 13 shows the vulnerability of groundwater in the study area
based on spatial analysis in ArcGIS software. The GIS-based modelling
analysis showed that the southern and central suburbs of the study area
are most vulnerable to groundwater contamination. Areas that were
highly vulnerable to climate variability were characterised by low or
high precipitation, increasing surface runoff, and low groundwater
recharge. The ‘very high’ vulnerability class was found in the south (e.g.
Strandfontein, Rocklands), southwest and north (Protea Valley) of the
region Cape Flats. Some small areas were observed in the western and
south-eastern parts (e.g. Mandalay, Tuscany Glen) of the study area. The
“high” groundwater vulnerability class covers the western, southeastern
and northeastern parts, while the mean annual precipitation is lower in Fig. 14. Area coverage of contamination risk in the Cape Flats aquifer.
these areas and the temperature is increasing. Goodwood is at high and
very high groundwater risk due to the low water availability in this area. (Fig. 14).
The “moderate” contamination risk class is most prevalent in the central,
southwestern, and southeastern portions of the Cape Flats catchment,
while the “low” contamination risk class is more prevalent in the 3.4. Validation of the vulnerability index map
southwestern and northwestern areas due to the low sediment leaching
potential of average precipitation and temperatures in these areas. A 3.4.1. Validation using borehole water chemical parameters
small area of moderate hazard class was also found in the western and For validation, it is important to compare the vulnerability map with
middle eastern portions of the study area. The eastern, northeastern, and the real pollution in the groundwater in question (Machiwal, 2018).
southwestern areas of the metropolitan region Cape Town have very low Validation is an independent process that can be used to verify the
groundwater risk. conclusions of the vulnerability analysis in various ways. It is a good
In terms of area, sites with a vulnerability rating of ‘very high’ and exercise for making decisions and establishing effective strategies for
‘high’ occupied 22% of the total area, while sites with a hazard rating of long-term groundwater management at the watershed scale. On the
‘moderate’ covered 29% of the total area. The vulnerability classifica­ other hand, the quality of the available data and the way they are
tions of “very low” and “low” accounted for 49% of the total region interpreted often have a detrimental effect on vulnerability assessments.

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T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

To provide confidence in the results, a validation exercise was un­ Table 4

dertaken. Water quality data from existing wells, recent laboratory Comparison of the chemical quality of the aquifer with WHO and SA Drinking
analytical results, and literature in the study area were mapped to Water Quality Standards.
validate the resulting groundwater contamination risk map. An interface Water quality WHO (2011) SA Max Max Min Average
GIS was used for input preparation and data manipulation during the Parameter Max limit limit (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l)
validation process. The variables selected as indicators of overall water (mg/l) (mg/l)

quality status are nitrate (NO3-), electrical conductivity (EC) and chlo­
ride (Cl). Electrical conductivity (EC) (mS/m) as an indicator of salinity
and chloride (mg/l) to show the effects of agriculture, sewage discharge
and industrial waste. Electrical conductivity (EC) was assessed to show
temporal changes in water quality. Accessible observational water
quality information from past investigations was utilized to contrast the
results all together with approving the model observed data (Adelana
et al., 2010; Davis et al., 2011c; Gnandji et al., 2013c).
Nitrate levels in groundwater are high with an average value of 2.65
mg/l and groundwater is polluted by salinity and nitrate in some areas.
These findings are in line with the studies of (Davis et al., 2011c) and
((Gnandji et al., 2013b). The water in the central part of the aquifer has
low salinity. Fig. 15 gives an idea of the salinity throughout the aquifer.
It shows that some areas have more saline water than others.
The chemical quality of the aquifer was summarized in Table 4. In
some areas, groundwater quality exceeded drinking water standards for
the majority of ions. The southeast of the study area was affected by
elevated nitrate levels, which were a groundwater quality concern.
Concentrations of NO3, Cl, and EC in some of the water samples are
above the drinking water standards set by the World Health Organiza­
tion (WHO) (SA, 2008).
3.4.2. Linear regression and cross-correlation analysis
Further testing is essential to ensure a vulnerability index with
groundwater quality parameters and to evaluate correlation with spe­
cific drinking water standards. Under the modelling data modeling in
XLSTAT and JMP software programs, statistical approaches such as
EC 1000 1991 393
Cl− 250 200 650 27.1 268.5
NO3 − 10 10 4.7 0.09 1.29
linear regression and cross-correlation analysis were applied. JMP is a
statistical analysis software developed by SAS Institution (https://www.
jmp.com/). Based on the identification of significant relationships be­
tween annual mean air temperature and precipitation and electrical
conductivity, the pattern of this relationship is presented in the
following section.
The linear regression between contamination risk index and elec­
trical conductivity in the studied aquifer (Fig. 16) shows a strong posi­
tive relationship (R2 = 0.99). This correlation indicates that 99% of the
factors explaining this relationship were captured in the equation.
It is important to measure climate variability to determine its impact
on groundwater quality. Climate variability can be represented by a
number of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The
propagation of climate variability results from the change in the signal
of the variable as it transitions from anomalous meteorological condi­
tions to an extreme event such as drought or flood as part of the hy­
drologic cycle. Many climate change scenarios predict greater
fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, which will have different
impacts on aquifer quality. Okkonen, (2011) determined how changes in
climate variables - such as temperature and precipitation - propagate
through hydrological processes and eventually affect groundwater levels
and thus groundwater quality in Finland. Climate variability is a

Fig. 15. Spatial distribution of mean nitrate, chloride, and electrical conductivity concentration in groundwater.

12
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 16. Linear regression relationship between electrical conductivity and vulnerability index map evaluated by the WaterWorld model.

complicated, non-linear phenomenon that reflects the different water
quality systems underlying the propagation of climate change.
In this study, the observed differences in groundwater quality
chemical composition concentrations were compared with annual pre­
cipitation and temperature variables under climatic conditions.
Regression analysis provides a particularly useful detailed description of
groundwater quality and climate (Velde, 2011). Lag correlation and
regression analysis are used to provide insight into the linkage between
hydrologic variables, particularly to assess temporal lags and quantify
their effects on dependent variables such as water quality. Statistical
analyses were conducted for precipitation, temperature, and electrical
conductivity data to determine which climate variables affect ground­
water quality. Groundwater readings EC were used as the dependent
variable in the simple linear regression analysis. The results of the
analysis, consisting of a set of regression equations and corresponding
coefficients of determination (r2), are shown in Fig. 17 and Fig. 18.
In this analysis, given the R2, 0.403 of the variability of the depen­
dent variable EC (mS/m) 40% is explained by the explanatory variable,
precipitation.
In this analysis, given the R2 of 0.403, 40% of the variability in the
dependent variable EC (mS/m) is explained by the explanatory variable
precipitation (Fig. 17). The rest of the variability is due to other factors

Fig. 17. Linear regression relationship between electrical conductivity and precipitation evaluated by the WaterWorld model.

13
T.T. Gintamo et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663

Fig. 18. Linear regression relationship between electrical conductivity and precipitation evaluated by the WaterWorld model.

not considered in this analysis. shallow aquifers.

In Fig. 18 the variability of the dependent variable EC (mS/m) (R2 =
76%) is explained by temperature.
Based on the regression equations developed and the corresponding
coefficients of determination (r2), there is a large variability in the
concentrations of EC. The R-squared value is about 76% and 40% be­
tween temperature and precipitation respectively EC shows a statisti­
cally significant relationship between electrical conductivity (EC) and
climate variables. The squares analysis shows that the precipitation
variables do not provide significant information to explain the vari­
ability of the dependent variable EC (mS/m) compared to temperature T
(◦ C). This means that among the explanatory variables, the variable T
(◦ C) has the greatest influence, since an increase in air temperatures is
likely to lead to an increase in evapotranspiration. The long-term effects
of evapotranspiration may lead to increasing salinity of groundwater in
The study’s findings were cross-correlated to determine lag times,
significant correlations, and the how long it takes for an effect to pass
from one variable to another. Lag time measures the time between a
decision and full implementation of an action (CC-WaterS, 2011; Jake­
man et al., 2016). Correlation analysis shows a significant relationship
between the variables precipitation, temperature and lag time (Fig. 19 to
Fig. 20). In the catchment Cape Flats, the correlation coefficient between
precipitation and electrical conductivity (EC) varies with lag time,
indicating that precipitation has a greater influence on runoff.
In Fig. 19, the correlation at lag 0 shows a significant correlation at
0.63. The highest correlation is found between electrical conductivity
and precipitation at lag 0, which means that most of the precipitation
that falls in the catchment is immediately converted to runoff. Sazib
et al. (2020) also analysed the spatio-temporal correlations between soil

Fig. 19. Lag correlations between precipitation and electrical conductivity (EC).

14
T.T. Gintamo et al.
Fig. 20. Lag correlations between temperature and electrical conductivity (EC).
moisture, rainfall and river discharge for a large number of watersheds
and evaluation of lag times and came to the same conclusions. Their
results show that one of the watersheds with the highest rainfall has the
highest coupling with river flow (the mean correlation value of 0.65 at
lag 0 months). The median correlation value between rainfall and
streamflow in the same watersheds is 0.45 and 0.6, respectively, indi­
cating that soil moisture has a higher correlation with streamflow.
The correlations established between electrical conductivity and air
temperatures with a time lag of temperature are shown in Fig. 20. The
analysis shows that EC is well correlated with temperature in the
catchment Cape Flats. The value of correlation between ECand tem­
perature varied from 0.87 to 0.03 for a time lag of 0–7 years. The highest
correlation coefficient between temperature and electrical conductivity
was 0.87, which means that the correlation is significant. In the catch­
ment Cape Flats, the correlation coefficient between temperature and
electrical conductivity (EC) varied with lag time, indicating that tem­
perature has a greater influence on evapotranspiration.
Overall, the results presented suggest that climate variability likely
has a potential impact on shallow aquifers. Groundwater quality vari­
ability correlates more strongly with temperature than with precipita­
tion, but precipitation is more important in increasing surface runoff in
shallow aquifers. The water quality parameters shown in Fig. 15 provide
evidence that shallow aquifers are becoming increasingly contaminated,
necessitating the design of feasible measures to protect aquifers, despite
the fact that not all factors explaining the threat of groundwater
contamination were captured in the analysis. In addition, the spatio­
temporal trends in climate variability and groundwater quality require
long-term monitoring efforts to ascertain impacts. Hydrologic modelling
and coupling with spatial analysis of chemical water quality in a GIS
environment under changing climate conditions provide important in­
formation for more effective water resource management.
4. Conclusions and recommendations
In this study, the vulnerability of groundwater in the aquifer Cape
Flats (South Africa) was mapped and assessed using a hydrological
model (WaterWorld model) in a GIS environment. The WaterWorld
Policy Support approach was used to generate climate change pro­
jections based on 19 available general circulation models (GCMs) with a
spatial resolution of 1 km2 for a baseline period (1950–2000) and the
time period (2041–2060). The results the modelling predicts an increase
in precipitation (mm/year) of at least 0.012 mm and a maximum of
1182 mm. Actual evapotranspiration (mm/year) ranges from 92 mm to
1197 mm. The results reflect the fact that the water balance (mm/year)
15
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 15 (2021) 100663
for the area is a minimum of − 253 and a maximum of 824. Most of the
central part of the catchment receives an accumulation between 17 and
322 mm/year.
Annual mean precipitation and temperature were simulated using
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 from 2041 to 2060
under representative concentration pathway 8.5 based on 19 available
general circulation models (GCMs) with a spatial resolution of 1 km2.
The scenario shows that the actual evapotranspiration (mm/year)
ranges from 90 mm to 1,276 mm. The simulation predicts an increase in
evapotranspiration of 79 mm/year (3.2%) for the area, resulting in an
effective decrease in water balance. The results of the study show that
temperature rises will continue in the future, while precipitation and
recharge will decrease.
The study specifically identified areas vulnerable to climate vari­
ability in the GIS environment. The parameters - such as precipitation,
temperature, actual evapotranspiration, runoff and recharge - are
important factors that determine the vulnerability of groundwater to
contamination. Areas that were particularly vulnerable to climate
variability were characterised by low or high precipitation, increasing
surface runoff, and low recharge.
Water quality data from laboratory results of existing wells and from
literature in the study area were mapped to validate the resulting
groundwater contamination risk map. Some of the water quality pa­
rameters measured at Cape Flats - such as nitrate, chlorides and elec­
trical conductivity - were within World Health Organisation limits
(WHO, 2008) and SANAs241(Pt-co, 2015; SA D. SA, 2008) Drinking
Water Standards. The contamination risk index and the measured values
of groundwater quality showed a significant strong correlation [R2 =
0.99]. The parameters that showed strong relationship were electrical
conductivity, chloride and nitrate. Based on the vulnerability index, it
was found that groundwater in Cape Flats is increasingly contaminated.
GIS-based analytical tools provide evidence-based scenarios that
consider climate-related impacts at the local level to improve ground­
water security in urban areas. The results of this study will provide
decision makers in the Cape Flats basin with important information for
maintaining an adequate groundwater management system. In addition,
this study will benefit policy makers in the city who can use the research
results to develop effective water quality monitoring measures. In view
of climate variability and change, the analytical tools based on GIS
provided relevant and feasible insights for measures to improve
groundwater security. In the future, further studies on integrated
modelling of contaminant transport in the Cape Flats Aquifer could be
beneficial by developing linkages between the different hydrogeological
components affecting the groundwater system.
T.T. Gintamo et al.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This research was funded in part by a grant from the Cape Higher
Education Consortium (CHEC) research project and the University of the
Western Cape. The authors thank the Department of Water and Sanita­
tion in Western Cape, South Africa Weather Services and the City of
Cape Town for permission to use the data in this study. The authors
thank Dr Mulligan as the author of the WaterWorld Policy Support
model for providing the global data used for this study (Bruijnzeel et al.,
2011), Department of Geography King’s College, London, UK. E-mail:
mark.mukkigan@kcl.ac.uk. Sincere appreciation to all colleagues,
especially collaborators and friends, who offered data, insight, and
encouragement ((Dr. S. Israel (sisrael@uwc.ac.za) and Mr. S. Gxokwe
(3050512@myuwc.ac.za)).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in the
online version, at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100663.
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