FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of frequency analysis is to estimate frequency of occurrence of floods,

droughts or storms of maximum rainfall. Hydrologic parameters from available record of
data are predicted. Using these parameters the data is extrapolated for future forecasting.
The accuracy of prediction depends on accuracy and correctness of available records. An
objective of frequency analysis may be the estimation of maximum possible discharge of
a stream or river that will be encountered after a certain time period. Such information is
required for design of hydraulic structures (dams, barrages, culverts, bridges, etc.),
reservoirs, floodways, irrigation systems, river improvement works, flood protection
schemes and development of water resources. Frequency Analysis is based on statistical
methods.

The prediction may not be good due to the following factors:

a. Non-cyclic nature of random events like floods and droughts,

b. Analysis based on limited data, and
c. Data being non-homogeneous

So care should be taken of these factors while performing frequency analysis.

Some related definitions and rules are given below:

Return Period

It is an average value of time of occurrence of hydrologic outcome. It is an average and

not the exact period of becoming equal to or exceedance from a certain value of a
hydrologic quantity. For example a flood of say 50,000 cumecs that has been exceeded on
the average once in 20 years has a probability of exceedance from this value in any one
year equal to 1/20. This does not mean that every 20 years a flood of this magnitude will
occur. Return period is also called recurrence interval.
 222
Probability

It is measure of chance for an event to exceed or equal a certain level. For an event ‘A’,
‘probability of A’ denoted by ‘P(A)’ is the ratio of the number of possible outcomes
favorable to A (denoted by ‘NA’) to the total number of possible outcomes for the
hydrologic experiment / phenomenon (denoted by ‘N’). Mathematically:

P(A) = NA / N - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.1)

Basic Rules of Probability

Rule-1

The probability of an event ‘A’ is non-negative and less than or equal to ‘1’. The sum of
probability of all possible outcomes in any trial is equal to ‘1’.

0  P( A) 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.2)

More generally, for ‘N’ possible outcome,

N
 P( Ai )  1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.3)
i 1

Rule-2

For two independent mutually exclusive events, ‘A1’ and ‘A2’, the probability of ‘A1’or
‘A2’ is equal to the probability of ‘A1’ plus the probability of ‘A2’.

P (A1 or A2) = P (A1) + P (A2) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.4)

Equation (9.4) can be generalized to any number of events.

Rule 3

For two independent events, ‘A1’ and ‘A2’, the probability of ‘A1’ and ‘A2’ is equal to the
product of individual probabilities of ‘A1’ and ‘A2’.

P (A1 and A2) = P( A1 )  P( A2 ) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.5)

The term ‘independent events’ implies that the occurrence of one event does not influence
the occurrence of the other event i. e. the two events may or may not occur at the same
time. Equation (9.5) can be extended to any number of events.

222
 223
In hydrology, many events are independent, many are mutually exclusive, and many take
place simultaneously and are not mutually exclusive and may not be even independent.
For example, extreme rainfall and extreme yearly temperature can be considered as
independent events. Floods and droughts are mutually exclusive events in a given
watershed. Rainfall and floods are not independent events. For events that are not
independent, the following rule applies.

Rule-4

For two events, ‘A1’ and ‘A2’, the probability of ‘A1’ or ‘A2’ is equal to the sum of
individual probabilities of ‘A1’ and ‘A2’ minus the joint probability of ‘A1’ and ‘A2’.

P ( A1 or A2 )  P( A1 )  P( A2 )  P( A1 and A2 ) - - - - - - - - (9.6)

If ‘A1’ and ‘A2’ are independent, then Equation (9.5) applies and Equation (9.6) can be
written as:

P ( A1 or A2 )  P( A1 )  P( A2 )  P( A1 ) P( A2 ) - - - - - - - - - (9.7)

If ‘A1’ and ‘A2’ are independent mutually-exclusive events, then P( A1 and A2 )  0 and
Equation (9.6) specializes into Equation (9.4). Thus Equation (9.6) is a general equation
embracing Equations (9.4) and (9.7) as special cases. The term P( A1 and A2 ) can be
expressed using Bayes’ theorem as

P( A1 and A2)
P( A1 A2 )  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.8)
P( A2 )

Where P (A1 / A2) is the probability of ‘A1’ conditioned on ‘A2’. If ‘A1’ and ‘A2’ are
independent events, then

P (A1 / A2) = P (A1)

The number of different possible outcomes of ‘k’ items out of a population of ‘n’ items is
n
  expressed as
 
k 
n n!
 =
  k !(n  k )! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -(9.9)
k 

Where ! represents factorial.

223
 224
Rule-5

The probability of ‘k’ successes in the ‘n’ trials can be determined as:

n
P (‘k’ successes in the ‘n’ trials) =   pk (1 - p) n-k - - - - - (9.10)
k 

Relationship between Probability and Return Period

Relationship of probability of occurrence of a flood ‘p’ in any year with its return period
‘T’ is given as:

p=1/T

The probability that the flood will not occur in any year is given as:


p = 1- p = 1 – 1 / T - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- (9.11)

The probability that the flood will not occur for ‘n’ successive years is given as:

n

 p   11 / T n - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.12)
 
 

Risk

The probability that the flood of given magnitude (having return period ‘T’) will occur at
least once in ‘n’ successive years is called risk (denoted by ‘R’).

n

R=1-  p   1  11 / T n - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -(9.13)
 

224
 225
Random Variable

If outcomes of a hydrologic experiment or phenomenon are quantitative measurements

(numerical values) and the outcomes depend on chance, then the resulting measurement
variable is called a random variable. It is also called a chance variable, a stochastic
variable or simply a variate. The random variables are usually denoted by capital letters
such as X, Y, Z; while the values taken by them are represented by the corresponding
small letters such as x, y, z.

Discrete Random Variable

It is a random variable which can assume only a finite number of values or a sequence of
whole numbers.

Continuous Random Variable

It is a random variable which can assume all possible values on a continuous scale in a
given interval.

Probability Distribution

A function f(x) of hydrologic quantity is a probability function or a probability

distribution of the discrete random variable ‘X’ if for each possible outcome ‘x’:
1. f(x) > 0
2. f(x) = 1
3. P(X = x) = f(x)
A graph of all possible values of random variable along with their respective probabilities
shows a probability distribution or a probability function.

Histogram

A histogram consists of a set of adjacent rectangles whose bases are marked off by class
boundaries along the x-axis and whose heights are proportional to the frequencies
associated with respective classes.

Example 9.1

Table 9.1 below, gives precipitation depth in ‘cm’ for first eight months at certain
location Construct the frequency distribution diagram.

225
 226
Table 9.1 Precipitation data

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Jan 7.5 8.2 6.2 8.9 7.8 9.4 9.9 10.9 5.4 10.8 7.4
Feb 9.7 11.6 12.6 5 10.2 9.2 12 9.9 7.3 7.3 8.4
Mar 10.3 10.1 10 11.1 6.5 12.5 7.8 6.5 8.7 9.3 12.4
Apr 10.6 9.1 9.7 9.3 6.2 10.3 6.6 7.4 8.6 7.7 9.4
May 7.7 12.8 8.7 5.5 8.6 9.6 11.9 10.4 7.8 7.6 12.1
Jun 4.6 14 8.1 11.4 10.6 11.6 10.4 8.1 4.6 6.6 12.8
Jul 6.8 7.1 6.6 8.8 8.8 10.7 10.8 6 7.9 7.3 9.3
Aug 9.3 8.9 10.1 3.9 6 6.9 9 8.8 9.4 11.4 10.9

Solution

We note that the largest value is 14.0 and the smallest value is 3.9 so that the range is
14.0 - 3.9 = 10.1 cm.

As the data are recorded to one decimal place, we may therefore locate the lower limit of
the first group at 3.5. Let us choose a class interval of 1.0. Then the class limits are
specified as 3.5 - 4.4, 4.5 - 5.4, 5.5 - 6.4,…. With this choice, the class boundaries are
3.45 - 4.45, 4.45 - 5.45, 5.45 - 6.45, … , which do not coincide with the given values.

Table 9.2 shows the required frequency distribution.

Table 9.2 Frequency Distribution of Rainfall Depths

Precipitation Depth Class Boundaries Frequency (No. of

Interval Occurrences)
3.5-4.4 3.45-4.45 1
4.5-5.4 4.45-5.45 4
5.5-6.4 5.45-6.45 5
6.5-7.4 6.45-7.45 13
7.5-8.4 7.45-8.45 12
8.5-9.4 8.45-9.45 19
9.5-10.4 9.45-10.45 13
10.5-11.4 10.45-11.45 10
11.5-12.4 11.45-12.45 6
12.5-13.4 12.45-13.45 4
13.5-14.4 13.45-14.45 1
Total 88

226
 227
Fig. 9.1 shows the histogram for frequency distribution of monthly precipitation depths.
Along X-axis are class boundaries and along Y-axis is the frequency.

Histogram for Frequency Distribution

20 19

18

16

14 13 13
12
12
10
10

8
6
6 5
4 4
4

2 1 1

0
3.45-4.45

4.45-5.45

5.45-6.45

6.45-7.45

7.45-8.45

8.45-9.45

9.45-10.45

10.45-11.45

11.45-12.45

12.45-13.45

13.45-14.45
Fig. 9.1 Frequency Distribution

Example 9.2

Find the probability that a 25 year flood will occur in particular 5 years period.

Solution

Here P (X≥25 Year Flood) is required to be determined in particular 5 year period. That
is:
‘n’ = 5
‘T’ = 25
From Equation 9.12
P (X≥25 Year Flood) = 1-[1-(1/25)] 5
= 1-0.82
= 0.18 or 18%

227
 228
A simplification of Equation 9.12 yields
n = log (1-P(X ≥ x)n)/log[(T-1)/T] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -( 9.14)

Example 9.3

An embankment is designed for period of 20 years flood. Find, for even chance, the life
of embankment.

Solution

P (X≥20 Year Flood) = 50% = 0.50

T = 20 years
n =?
From Equation 9.14, we have
n = log (1-P (X≥x) n) / log [(T-1) / T]
= log (1-0.5) / log [(20-1) / 20]
= 13.5 years.

Statistical Methods of Analysis of Hydrologic Data

There are two main methods for frequency analysis – Computational and Graphical.

Water resources projects often require frequency distribution of magnitudes. For example
in design of hydraulic structures flood of certain magnitude and of certain return period is
required. This needs predictions based on previous data. The data is extrapolated by
matching the data with statistical distribution. There are different distributions of
probability for hydrologic data, some of which are listed below:

o Normal Distribution
o Lognormal Distribution
o Exponential Distribution
o Gamma Distribution
o Pearson Type III Distribution
o Log Pearson Type III Distribution
o Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution

The purpose of all these distributions is to best extrapolate the hydrologic data. Each
distribution has certain advantages. Since a Normal Distribution is defined by only two

228
 229
parameters - Mean and Standard Deviation, therefore it is simple to use. Its details can be
seen from any book on Statistics. Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution, one of the
commonly used distribution in Hydrology is described below:

Gumbel’s Extreme Value Theory

Gumbel assumed an exponentially distributed variable. He defined the cumulative

probability ‘P’ as:
P’ = Exp(e-y) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.15)
Therefore,
y = -ln [-ln[1-(1/T)], - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.16)

or, T=1/[1- P ] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -(9.17)
The event ‘QT’, having return period ‘T’ years is given by:
QT = Qav + б (0.78y-0.45) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.18)
Qav = Average of all values of ‘annual flood’, Qm
б = Standard deviation
Therefore,
б = SQRT [{n/(n-1)}{{∑Q²m/n}-Q²av}] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.19)
n=Number of years of record
The relationship between T and y is shown in figure 9.2.

1,200.00

1,000.00

800.00

600.00
T

400.00

200.00

-
- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
y

Fig 9.2 ‘T’ Vs ‘y’ Plot

229
 230
Log Pearson Type III Distribution

According to this N-year event can be calculated in a similar manner to the normal
distribution method, with Skew Coefficient ‘G’ given by:

 n²( X ³)  3n( X )( X ²)  2( X )³ 

G=   - - - - - - - - - - - (9.20)
 n(n  1)(n  2) ³ x 

Where, X = log Q and бx = Standard Deviation of ‘n’ values of ‘X’

log Qr = Xav + K’ бx - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (9.21)
Where, ‘K’ is a factor depending upon probability ‘r’ and Skew Coefficient ‘G’
(Table 9.3)

230
 231
Table 9.3 Pearson Type III Distribution – ‘K’ Values

Skew Probability of Exceedance (%)

Coefficient
'G' 99 90 50 10 5 2 1
3.0 -0.667 -0.660 -0.396 1.180 2.003 3.152 4.051
2.5 -0.799 -0.771 -0.360 1.250 2.012 3.048 3.845
2.0 -0.990 -0.895 -0.307 1.303 1.996 2.912 3.605
1.5 -1.256 -1.018 -0.240 1.333 1.951 2.743 3.330
1.2 -1.449 -1.086 -0.195 1.340 1.910 2.626 3.149
1.0 -1.558 -1.128 -0.164 1.340 1.877 2.542 3.023
0.9 -1.660 -1.147 -0.148 1.339 1.859 2.498 2.957
0.8 -1.733 -1.166 -0.132 1.336 1.839 2.453 2.891
0.7 -1.806 -1.183 -0.116 1.333 1.819 2.407 2.824
0.6 -1.880 -1.200 -0.099 1.328 1.797 2.359 2.755
0.5 -1.955 -1.216 -0.083 1.323 1.774 2.311 2.686
0.4 -2.029 -1.231 -0.067 1.317 1.750 2.261 2.615
0.3 -2.104 -1.245 -0.050 1.309 1.726 2.211 2.544
0.2 -2.178 -1.258 -0.033 1.301 1.700 2.159 2.472
0.1 -2.253 -1.270 -0.017 1.292 1.673 2.107 2.400
0.0 -2.326 -1.282 0.000 1.282 1.645 2.054 2.326
-0.1 -2.400 -1.292 0.017 1.270 1.616 2.000 2.253
-0.2 -2.472 -1.301 0.033 1.258 1.586 1.945 2.178
-0.3 -2.544 -1.309 0.050 1.245 1.555 1.890 2.104
-0.4 -2.615 -1.317 0.067 1.231 1.524 1.834 2.029
-0.5 -2.686 -1.323 0.083 1.216 1.491 1.777 1.955
-0.6 -2.755 -1.328 0.099 1.200 1.458 1.720 1.880
-0.7 -2.824 -1.333 0.116 1.183 1.423 1.663 1.806
-0.8 -2.891 -1.336 0.132 1.166 1.389 1.606 1.733
-0.9 -2.957 -1.339 0.148 1.147 1.353 1.549 1.660
-1.0 -3.023 -1.340 0.164 1.128 1.317 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -1.340 0.195 1.086 1.243 1.379 1.449
-1.5 -3.330 -1.333 0.240 1.018 1.131 1.217 1.256
-2.0 -3.605 -1.303 0.307 0.895 0.949 0.980 0.990
-2.5 -3.845 -1.250 0.360 0.771 0.790 0.798 0.799
-3.0 -4.051 -1.180 0.396 0.660 0.665 0.666 0.667

231
 232
Example 9.4

The following Table 9.4 shows Maximum Annual Discharge for Jhelum River. Estimate
the flood discharge for a return period of 100 years. Assume an appropriate distribution.

Table 9.4 Maximum Annual Discharge at Jhelum River

Year Qm Qm2 Year Qm (m³/s) Qm2 (m³/s)
(m³/s) (m³/s)

1,937 167.240 27,969 1,967 172.400 29,722

1,938 197.440 38,983 1,968 154.960 24,013
1,939 186.080 34,626 1,969 187.160 35,029
1,940 146.080 21,339 1,970 98.760 9,754
1,941 137.000 18,769 1,971 98.440 9,690
1,942 168.880 28,520 1,972 178.760 31,955
1,943 178.400 31,827 1,973 180.400 32,544
1,944 138.720 19,243 1,974 121.680 14,806
1,945 171.480 29,405 1,975 157.200 24,712
1,946 105.880 11,211 1,976 212.520 45,165
1,947 116.960 13,680 1,977 145.920 21,293
1,948 209.240 43,781 1,978 167.880 28,184
1,949 201.400 40,562 1,979 137.800 18,989
1,950 237.720 56,511 1,980 160.520 25,767
1,951 151.600 22,983 1,981 180.920 32,732
1,952 148.400 22,023 1,982 136.560 18,649
1,953 120.760 14,583 1,983 185.120 34,269
1,954 167.040 27,902 1,984 139.640 19,499
1,955 135.960 18,485 1,985 106.480 11,338
1,956 187.080 34,999 1,986 174.040 30,290
1,957 221.040 48,859 1,987 214.760 46,122
1,958 202.040 40,820 1,988 215.880 46,604
1,959 296.600 87,972 1,989 163.600 26,765
1,960 122.480 15,001 1,990 212.080 44,978
1,961 127.920 16,364 1,991 235.560 55,489
1,962 97.360 9,479 1,992 209.120 43,731
1,963 175.280 30,723 1,993 189.000 35,721
1,964 197.240 38,904 1,994 185.640 34,462
1,965 216.920 47,054 1,995 204.080 41,649
1,966 172.480 29,749
Mean = Total =
170 1,796,243.75

232
 233
From Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution, given above
QT = Qav + б (0.78y-0.45)
Where,
y = -ln[-ln(1- 1/T )]
б=√[n/(n-1)]∑Qm2/n-Qav2
n = number of values
∑Qm2 = sum of squares of recorded discharge
Substituting values,
б= 39.67
For T = 100 years, y = 4.60
Q100 = 170 + 39.67 (0.78*4.60-0.45) =294.50 m³/s

Graphical Method

The extreme event can also be found by plotting. Different researchers have proposed
different formulae to relate return period with given variable. Some of them are listed in
table 9.5. Here m is the rank of the given variable. It has value of m=1 for highest value
of given variable, m=2 for next highest value and so on. Also n is the number of the
event.

Table 9.5 Return Period Formulae

Sr. No. Formula Proposed by

1 Tr = (N+1)/m Weibull
2 Tr = N/m Californian
3 Tr = 2 N/(2m-1) Hazen
4 Tr = (N+0.12)/ (m-0.44) Gringorten
5 Tr = (N+0.2)/ (m-0.4) Cunnane

233
 234
Example 9.5

The Maximum Annual Discharge for Jhelum River are given in Example 9.4. Estimate
the flood discharge for a return period of 100 years by graphical method.

Solution

The calculations are done in spreadsheet below (Table 9.6). The first and second column
are water year and Annual maximum discharge obtained from stream flow measurements.
In third column values are arranged in descending order. A rank is assigned to each
discharge value starting with m=1 assigned to highest figure. The fourth column shows
calculation of return period Tr. Different formulae have been proposed by different
researchers. Here the used formula is Tr = (N+0.12)/(m-0.44) proposed by Gringorten.

Computations for 100 year Flood

Table 9.6 Maximum Annual Flow at Jhelum

Tr=(N+0.12)/
Water Year Qm (m³/s) Arranged (m³/s) Rank 'm'
(m-0.44)
1,937 167.240 167.240 1 105.57
1,938 197.440 197.440 2 37.90
1,939 186.080 186.080 3 23.09
1,940 146.080 146.080 4 16.61
1,941 137.000 137.000 5 12.96
1,942 168.880 168.880 6 10.63
1,943 178.400 178.400 7 9.01
1,944 138.720 138.720 8 7.82
1,945 171.480 171.480 9 6.91
1,946 105.880 105.880 10 6.18
1,947 116.960 116.960 11 5.60
1,948 209.240 209.240 12 5.11
1,949 201.400 201.400 13 4.71
1,950 237.720 237.720 14 4.36
1,951 151.600 151.600 15 4.06
1,952 148.400 148.400 16 3.80
1,953 120.760 120.760 17 3.57
1,954 167.040 167.040 18 3.37
1,955 135.960 135.960 19 3.19
1,956 187.080 187.080 20 3.02
1,957 221.040 221.040 21 2.88

234
 235

Tr=(N+0.12)/
Water Year Qm (m³/s) Arranged (m³/s) Rank 'm'
(m-0.44)
1,958 202.040 202.040 22 2.74
1,959 296.600 296.600 23 2.62
1,960 122.480 122.480 24 2.51
1,961 127.920 127.920 25 2.41
1,962 97.360 97.360 26 2.31
1,963 175.280 175.280 27 2.23
1,964 197.240 197.240 28 2.15
1,965 216.920 216.920 29 2.07
1,966 172.480 172.480 30 2.00
1,967 172.400 172.400 31 1.93
1,968 154.960 154.960 32 1.87
1,969 187.160 187.160 33 1.82
1,970 98.760 98.760 34 1.76
1,971 98.440 98.440 35 1.71
1,972 178.760 178.760 36 1.66
1,973 180.400 180.400 37 1.62
1,974 121.680 121.680 38 1.57
1,975 157.200 157.200 39 1.53
1,976 212.520 212.520 40 1.49
1,977 145.920 145.920 41 1.46
1,978 167.880 167.880 42 1.42
1,979 137.800 137.800 43 1.39
1,980 160.520 160.520 44 1.36
1,981 180.920 180.920 45 1.33
1,982 136.560 136.560 46 1.30
1,983 185.120 185.120 47 1.27
1,984 139.640 139.640 48 1.24
1,985 106.480 106.480 49 1.22
1,986 174.040 174.040 50 1.19
1,987 214.760 214.760 51 1.17
1,988 215.880 215.880 52 1.15
1,989 163.600 163.600 53 1.12
1,990 212.080 212.080 54 1.10
1,991 235.560 235.560 55 1.08
1,992 209.120 209.120 56 1.06
1,993 189.000 189.000 57 1.05
1,994 185.640 185.640 58 1.03
1,995 204.080 204.080 59 1.01

235
 236

The values of discharge are plotted on y-axis (linear scale) against computed return
period on x-axis (linear scale). A best fit line is drawn. The line is extrapolated to find
discharge against given return period and vice versa. We now try best-fit line

Plot (a)
Q is plotted against T with Linear Scale both along X-axis and Y-axis as
shown in Fig. 9.3

Annual Maximum Flow (River Jhelum 1937-1995)

350

300

250
Discharge (m³/s)

200

150

100

50

-
- 20 40 60 80 100 120

Return Period Tr (Years)

Fig 9.3 Linear Axis Plotting

From plotted curve,

for Tr = 100 years, Q ~ 298 m³/s.

236
 237
Plot (b)
Q s plotted on Linear Scale and T with Logarithmic Scale as shown in
Fig. 9.4

Annual Maximum Flow at River Jhelum (1937-1995)

SEMI-LOG PLOT

350
Discharge Q (m³/s) - Linear Scale

300

250

200

150

100

50

-
1 10 100

Return Period Tr (years) - Logarithmic Scale

Fig 9.4 Q vs T plot with Q at Linear Scale and T at Logarithmic Scale

From Fig 9.4,

or T=100 years, Q= 305 m³/sec.
This value of flow may be required for hydraulic design of a bridge across the river.

Plot (c)
Q is plotted on Linear Scale along Y-axis and Probability in % along X-axis

Plot (d)
Q is plotted on Log Scale along Y-axis and Probability in % along X-axis

The reader may complete the plots (c) and (d) himself.

237
 238
Questions
1. What do you understand by frequency analysis?
2. Describe various methods for finding extreme values where plotting is not
required.
3. Explain plotting methods for extrapolation of hydrologic data.
4. Explain advantages of Pearson Distribution.
5. Compare Gumbel’s Theory with that of Pearson’s.
Exercise

Problem 9.1

Flood-Frequency computations for a river by using Gumbel’s Method, yielded the

following results. Estimate the flood magnitude in this river with a return period of 500
years.

Return Period T (years) Peak Flood (m³/s)

50 40,809
100 46,300

Problem 9.2

Annual maximum recorded floods in a river for the period 1951 to 1977, is given below.
Verify weather the Gumbel’s Extreme-Value Distribution fits the recorded values.
Estimate the flood discharge with recurrence interval of 100 years. Also, estimate the
flood magnitude in this river with a return period of 500 years.
.
Maximum Flood Maximum Flood Maximum Flood
Year Year Year
(m³/s) (m³/s) (m³/s)
1951 2947 1960 4798 1969 6599
1952 3521 1961 4290 1970 3700
1953 2399 1962 4652 1971 4175
1954 4124 1963 5050 1972 2988
1955 3496 1964 6900 1973 2709
1956 2947 1965 4366 1974 3873
1957 5060 1966 3380 1975 4593
1958 4903 1967 7826 1976 6761
1959 3757 1968 3320 1977 1971

238