ESTIMATION OUPUT

Dependent Variable: INF

Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:33
Sample: 1992 2021
Included observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -3.696836 2.584301 -1.430497 0.1650

OIL 0.027165 0.011180 2.429745 0.0226
UNEMPLOY 0.241032 0.469603 0.513269 0.6123
RIR -0.132530 0.058369 -2.270553 0.0320
LIR 0.672833 0.134371 5.007261 0.0000

R-squared 0.580371 Mean dependent var 2.473750

Adjusted R-squared 0.513231 S.D. dependent var 1.450295
S.E. of regression 1.011854 Akaike info criterion 3.012457
Sum squared resid 25.59621 Schwarz criterion 3.245990
Log likelihood -40.18686 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.087166
F-statistic 8.644118 Durbin-Watson stat 1.832633
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000159

VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR (VIF) FOR MULTICOLLINEARITY

Variance Inflation Factors
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:37
Sample: 1992 2021
Included observations: 30

Coefficient Uncentered Centered

Variable Variance VIF VIF

C 6.678612 195.6914 NA
OIL 0.000125 11.89553 2.796283
UNEMPLOY 0.220527 75.52460 1.339126
RIR 0.003407 2.341448 1.294880
LIR 0.018056 25.60714 2.682870
HISTOGRAM FOR NORMALITY TEST
7 Series: Residuals
Sample 1992 2021
6
Observations 30
5
Mean -7.85e-16
4 Median -0.033243
Maximum 2.371549
3 Minimum -1.638108
Std. Dev. 0.939483
2
Skewness 0.211787
1 Kurtosis 2.772562

0 Jarque-Bera 0.288928
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Probability 0.865486

BREUSCH GODFREY LM SERIAL CORRELATION TEST

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at up to 2 lags

F-statistic 0.046371 Prob. F(2,23) 0.9548

Obs*R-squared 0.120482 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.9415

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:39
Sample: 1992 2021
Included observations: 30
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.320130 2.888605 -0.110825 0.9127

OIL 0.001004 0.012091 0.083001 0.9346
UNEMPLOY 0.060473 0.528122 0.114507 0.9098
RIR -0.002751 0.063517 -0.043318 0.9658
LIR 0.011267 0.144983 0.077711 0.9387
RESID(-1) 0.060293 0.233870 0.257806 0.7988
RESID(-2) 0.034382 0.232309 0.148002 0.8836

R-squared 0.004016 Mean dependent var -7.85E-16

Adjusted R-squared -0.255806 S.D. dependent var 0.939483
S.E. of regression 1.052810 Akaike info criterion 3.141766
Sum squared resid 25.49341 Schwarz criterion 3.468712
Log likelihood -40.12650 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.246359
F-statistic 0.015457 Durbin-Watson stat 1.942080
Prob(F-statistic) 0.999980
UNIT ROOT TEST (at 1st Difference, Intercept and Trend)
VARIABLE: INF
Null Hypothesis: D(INF) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.592926 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580622
10% level -3.225334

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INF,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:35
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2021
Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INF(-1)) -1.569869 0.182693 -8.592926 0.0000

C -0.216207 0.669807 -0.322790 0.7495
@TREND("1992") 0.003753 0.038366 0.097815 0.9229

R-squared 0.747770 Mean dependent var 0.173087

Adjusted R-squared 0.727591 S.D. dependent var 3.138083
S.E. of regression 1.637853 Akaike info criterion 3.925606
Sum squared resid 67.06403 Schwarz criterion 4.068342
Log likelihood -51.95849 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.969242
F-statistic 37.05791 Durbin-Watson stat 2.263697
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
VARIABLE: OIL
Null Hypothesis: D(OIL) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.466788 0.0007

Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580622
10% level -3.225334

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(OIL,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:35
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2021
Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(OIL(-1)) -1.158212 0.211863 -5.466788 0.0000

C 4.485329 6.769057 0.662622 0.5136
@TREND("1992") -0.167805 0.387110 -0.433481 0.6684

R-squared 0.546408 Mean dependent var 1.094286

Adjusted R-squared 0.510120 S.D. dependent var 23.31355
S.E. of regression 16.31749 Akaike info criterion 8.523309
Sum squared resid 6656.508 Schwarz criterion 8.666045
Log likelihood -116.3263 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8.566944
F-statistic 15.05778 Durbin-Watson stat 1.960126
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000051
VARIABLE: UNEMPLOY
Null Hypothesis: D(UNEMPLOY) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.401839 0.0008

Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580622
10% level -3.225334

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(UNEMPLOY,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:35
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2021
Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(UNEMPLOY(-1)) -1.039002 0.192342 -5.401839 0.0000

C -0.229373 0.162216 -1.414002 0.1697
@TREND("1992") 0.016002 0.009413 1.699936 0.1016

R-squared 0.539599 Mean dependent var -0.012143

Adjusted R-squared 0.502767 S.D. dependent var 0.552109
S.E. of regression 0.389319 Akaike info criterion 1.052120
Sum squared resid 3.789224 Schwarz criterion 1.194856
Log likelihood -11.72967 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.095755
F-statistic 14.65025 Durbin-Watson stat 1.920799
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000062
VARIABLE: REAL INTEREST RATE
Null Hypothesis: D(RIR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.435271 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.339330
5% level -3.587527
10% level -3.229230

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(RIR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:35
Sample (adjusted): 1995 2021
Included observations: 27 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(RIR(-1)) -2.562751 0.344675 -7.435271 0.0000

D(RIR(-1),2) 0.536106 0.188545 2.843390 0.0092
C -0.844967 1.779100 -0.474941 0.6393
@TREND("1992") 0.031142 0.099983 0.311469 0.7582

R-squared 0.867208 Mean dependent var -0.212240

Adjusted R-squared 0.849887 S.D. dependent var 10.33806
S.E. of regression 4.005423 Akaike info criterion 5.749129
Sum squared resid 368.9984 Schwarz criterion 5.941105
Log likelihood -73.61324 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.806213
F-statistic 50.06761 Durbin-Watson stat 2.192472
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
VARIABLE: LENDING INTEREST RATE
Null Hypothesis: D(LIR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.927081 0.0025

Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580622
10% level -3.225334

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LIR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:35
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2021
Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LIR(-1)) -0.987406 0.200404 -4.927081 0.0000

C -0.299786 0.381933 -0.784918 0.4399
@TREND("1992") 0.004345 0.021589 0.201244 0.8421

R-squared 0.492694 Mean dependent var -0.013188

Adjusted R-squared 0.452110 S.D. dependent var 1.244911
S.E. of regression 0.921478 Akaike info criterion 2.775281
Sum squared resid 21.22804 Schwarz criterion 2.918017
Log likelihood -35.85394 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.818917
F-statistic 12.13997 Durbin-Watson stat 1.932676
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000207
WHITE TEST FOR HETEROSKEDATICITY
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity

F-statistic 1.541316 Prob. F(14,15) 0.2078

Obs*R-squared 17.69766 Prob. Chi-Square(14) 0.2209
Scaled explained SS 10.89244 Prob. Chi-Square(14) 0.6945

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/09/23 Time: 16:44
Sample: 1992 2021
Included observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 44.06820 36.46502 1.208506 0.2456

OIL^2 0.000939 0.000903 1.040500 0.3146
OIL*UNEMPLOY 0.085914 0.074567 1.152164 0.2673
OIL*RIR 0.009112 0.005663 1.608886 0.1285
OIL*LIR 0.024019 0.020367 1.179317 0.2566
OIL -0.571123 0.354354 -1.611730 0.1279
UNEMPLOY^2 -0.281393 1.192871 -0.235895 0.8167
UNEMPLOY*RIR 1.011411 0.361953 2.794319 0.0136
UNEMPLOY*LIR -0.137265 0.491492 -0.279283 0.7838
UNEMPLOY -4.690265 13.01147 -0.360472 0.7235
RIR^2 -0.011651 0.021969 -0.530351 0.6036
RIR*LIR 0.235625 0.087404 2.695806 0.0166
RIR -5.444772 1.653433 -3.293011 0.0049
LIR^2 0.129583 0.103967 1.246387 0.2317
LIR -3.491069 3.292429 -1.060332 0.3058

R-squared 0.589922 Mean dependent var 0.853207

Adjusted R-squared 0.207183 S.D. dependent var 1.155358
S.E. of regression 1.028734 Akaike info criterion 3.201389
Sum squared resid 15.87442 Schwarz criterion 3.901987
Log likelihood -33.02083 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.425516
F-statistic 1.541316 Durbin-Watson stat 2.307607
Prob(F-statistic) 0.207776