India Economics

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Monthly Chartbook
Fig 1 –
January 2023

Economic Research Department

+91 22 6698 5794
chief.economist@bankofbaroda.com

Aditi Gupta
aditi.gupta3@bankofbaroda.com

Jahnavi
jahnavi@bankofbaroda.com

Dipanwita Mazumdar
dipanwita.mazumdar@bankofbaroda.com

Sonal Badhan
sonal.badhan@bankofbaroda.com

@2022 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved

Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.
All eyes on the Union Budget
With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail
sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals. While
headline PMIs (manufacturing and services) improved in Dec’22, electricity
demand, auto sales, tractor sales, property sales volume, states’ revenue tax
collections are pointing towards marginal slowdown. Going ahead, with
inflation coming down, RBI is expected to pause soon, which will help growth
in the near-term. Markets also await presentation of the Union Budget,
wherein fiscal glide path and market borrowing data will be critical.
Mixed reading: Consumption demand allued to mixed signals in Q3FY23, post
the ending of festive period. RBI’s consumer confidence for Nov’22 had
signalled that the economy continues to remain on recovery path, with
improved outlook for future. In Nov-Dec’22, moderation in electricity demand
and slowdown in auto sales added to disappointment. However, steady pace of
improvement in digital payments, non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports
offered some support. On agriculture front, tractor sales has moderated while
Rabi sowing continues to show robustness (higher compared with last year).
Centre on spending spree: Centre’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP, 12MMA basis),
rose further to 7.1% as of Nov’22 from 6.9% as of Oct’22, as spending
continues to maintain momentum. Total expenditure was up by 17.7% as of
Nov’22 (FYTD basis), compared with 17.4% growth seen as of Oct’22. This was
supported by 63.4% increase in capex (+61.5% as of Oct’22) and 10.8% rise in
revenue spending (+10.2% as of Oct’22). On the other hand, revenue growth
moderated slightly, with gross tax revenues rising by 15.5% as of Nov’22
versus 18% as of Oct’22. Within this, both direct (23.9% versus 25.9%) and
indirect tax collections eased (8.5% versus 11%). Within direct taxes, corporate
2
tax receipts slowed more than income tax. While in case of indirect taxes, union
excise duty collections acted a drag. Receipts from disinvestment still remains
lacklustre. We expect overall spending to remain high going forward (capex is
at 59.6% of BE and revenue expenditure is at 62.5%) in order to order meet
budgetary targets. We expect 0.2-0.3bps slip in fiscal deficit target in FY23.
India’s 10Y yield inched up in CY22: In line with major global yields, India’s
10Y yield rose sharply in CY22. It went up by 87bps, while 10Y yields in
Germany, UK and US firmed up by 317bps, 252bps and 217bps respectively.
Record high inflation, hawkish policy by major central banks contributed
towards the same. In domestic market even liquidity dynamics changed
dramatically. From a surplus of Rs 6.3 lakh crore in CY21, average system
liquidity surplus dropped to Rs 3.1 lakh crore in CY22. Going forward the
upcoming borrowing calendar of the centre and the fiscal deficit will shed light
on how yields would play out. Further, if the softening of inflation continues, it
would also comfort yields. In Dec’22 as well, we expect headline CPI to
moderate to 5.7%.
INR to remain rangebound: INR depreciated by 1.6% in Dec’22 , reversing
the gains it made in Nov’22. For the year, INR was 10.1% lower. A combination
of adverse global as well as domestic factors kept INR under pressure in CY22.
However, with a major part of Fed rate hikes been behind us and expectations
of rate cuts by the Fed in the later part of the year, the dollar rally is expected to
have stalled. Further, global commodity prices especially oil have moderarted
led by concerns over weak growth. This is also positive for INR. We foresee
INR in the range of 81-83/$ this year.
Note: The source for all exhibits is ‘CEIC and Bank of Baroda’ unless otherwise specified
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

High frequency indicators

Fig 1 – Electricity demand dips Fig 2 – Cash withdrawal continues to slip in Dec’22

Electricity demand, YoY % YoY ATM Cash Withdrawal

20% 18.5% 37%
40%
13.8% 14.3%
16% 30%
11.6% 10.9% 19%
12% 20%
9.3% 9% 7%
5.4% 6.9% 10% 4% 3% 3%
8% 4.6% 6.7% 2% 2%
2.7% 5.7%
4.0% 3.6% 0%
4% 1.1% 3.1%
1.1% (3%) (1%) (3%) (3%)
0.7% (10%) (6%)
0.3%
0% (7%) (5%)
(20%)
Feb-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
Jun-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Aug-21

Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Jul-22
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Sep-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Source: Posoco. Note: Maximum Demand met during peak evening hours (MW) Source: NPCI.Note: NFS Cashwithdrawal amount does not include Card to Card Transfer

Fig 3 – IMPS transactions drop Fig 4 – Growth in UPI payments steady

% YoY IMPS % YoY UPI

73%
75% 180%
59% 160%
60% 54% 135%
53% 50% 140%
46% 120% 111% 109%
104% 101% 98%
45% 97% 94%
38% 35% 35% 100% 85% 85%
32% 31% 73% 75%
25% 27% 80% 65%
30% 22% 23%
20% 60%
12% 12% 40%
15%
6%
20%
0% 0%

Jul-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Apr-22

Oct-22
Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Jun-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Aug-21

Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Source: NPCI Source: NPCI

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 3 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 5 – Robust growth in fertilizer sales Fig 6 – Slower demand for work (MGNREGA)

Fertilizer sales, YoY Fertilizer sales, 3MMA YoY MGNREGA Work DD, MoM
40% 32.0%
27.8%
70% 30%
19.3%
20% 14.5% 14.1%
55%
7.7%
40% 10% 1.3% 4.1% 4.3%
0.6% 3.9%
25% 0%
(4.6%)
10% (10%) (4.2%) (7.0%)
(5%) (20%) (14.2%)
(21.5%) (16.7%)
(20%) (30%) (22.1%)
(35%) (40%) (34.9%)
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Nov-22
May-20

Sep-20

May-21

Sep-21

May-22

Sep-22

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jun-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Aug-21

Sep-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Source: MGNREGA

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 4 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Final consumption expenditure

Fig 7 – Base effect drags down private consumption in Q2FY23 Fig 8 – Government consumption too edges downwards

Real PFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R) Real GFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)
30% 30% 35% 30%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10%
5%
0% 0% 0%
(10%)
(10%)
(15%) (15%)
(20%) (25%)

(30%) (30%) (40%) (30%)

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Sep-18

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Fig 9 – General govt. revenue spending inches up further Fig 10 – …State* govt. revenue spending too moving up

12MMA YoY 12MMA YoY

26%
20%
24%
22% 16%
20%
18% 12%
16%
14% 8%
12%
10% 4%
8%
6% 0%
4%
2% (4%)

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
May-19

Aug-19

Feb-21
Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Note: *All states excluding N.E states,. Goa, and J&K

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 5 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Non-oil imports, electronic imports

Fig 11 – Non-oil-non-gold import growth higher in Nov’22 vs Nov’21 (YoY) Fig 12 – Growth in electronic import edges upwards

(US$ bn) Non oil Non Gold Imports YoY 3MMA

47
210%
42.7 42.9 42.0
40.9 41.0 175%
42
38.7 37.8 38.7 38.5 140%
37.1 36.9
37 35.4 105%
34.0
70%
32 35%
0%
27
(35%)
(70%)
22

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-19

Feb-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Aug-22

Nov-22
May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Jul-22
Apr-22

Oct-22
Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22
Fig 13 – Retail passenger vehicle sales moderates at a slower pace Fig 14 – Two-wheeler sales fall sharply

MoM MoM
114.8% 126.5%
60% 54.7%
41.5% 43.8%
45% 37.4%
40% 30.8%
26.1%
16.8% 21.8%
14.0% 25% 17.7% 17.6%
20% 10.4% 9.4% 13.0% 9.6% 11.6%
9.8% 6.1%4.4% 7.5% 4.6% 6.4%
3.2%
5% 2.4%
0%
(0.5%)
(2.3%)
(4.0%) (2.1%) (1.5%) (0.2%) (2.6%) (6.9%)
(7.8%) (0.9%) (5.1%) (15%) (5.9%) (3.4%) (8.5%) (5.5%)
(20%) (10.1%) (6.4%) (9.8%)
(7.8%) (8.4%) (12.7%) (14.6%)
(26.8%) (3.7%) (26.4%) (28.3%) (20.2%)
(40%) (35%)

(58.6%) (38.7%)
(60%) (55%) (52.5%)
Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Jun-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22
Dec-22

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Jun-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22
Dec-22
Sep-20

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22

Sep-20

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Source: FADA

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 6 06 January 2023

 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jul-19 Jul-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Jan-20 Jan-20

ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Mar-20 Mar-20
May-20 May-20
Jul-20 Jul-20
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Sep-20 Sep-20
Nov-20 Nov-20
YoY

YoY
Jan-21 Jan-21
Mar-21 Mar-21

Fig 17 – Vehicle loans register higher growth

Fig 15 – Growth in credit card loan moderates

May-21 May-21
Credit deployment of personal loans

Jul-21 Jul-21
3MMA YoY

3MMA YoY
Sep-21 Sep-21
Nov-21 Nov-21
Jan-22 Jan-22

Mar-22 Mar-22

May-22 May-22

Jul-22 Jul-22

Sep-22 Sep-22

Nov-22 Nov-22

7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%

45
65
85
105
125
145

Mar-18 Jul-19
May-18
Sep-19
Jul-18
Sep-18 Nov-19
Nov-18 Jan-20
Jan-19
Mar-20
Mar-19
May-19 May-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Sep-19
Nov-19 Sep-20
Jan-20 Nov-20
YoY

Mar-20
Current situation

May-20 Jan-21
Jul-20 Mar-21
Sep-20
May-21
Fig 16 – Growth in personal loan remains steady

Nov-20
Jul-21
Fig 18 – Consumer’s optimistim gathers momentum

Jan-21
3MMA YoY

Mar-21 Sep-21
May-21
Jul-21 Nov-21
Future expectation

Sep-21 Jan-22
Nov-21
Mar-22
Jan-22
Mar-22 May-22
May-22
Jul-22
113.00

80.60

Jul-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Nov-22 Nov-22
114.90

83.50

06 January 2023
 45
50
55
60
70
75
80
85

40
65
90

(100%)
110%
140%

(70%)
(40%)
(10%)
20%
50%
80%
Mar-18
Oct-18 May-18
Jul-18
Feb-19 Sep-18
Nov-18

ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Jun-19 Jan-19
Mar-19
Oct-19 May-19
Jul-19
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Sep-19
Feb-20
Nov-19
Jan-20
Jun-20

YoY
Mar-20
May-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
Fig 19 – RBI’s essential spending signals a dip

Sep-20
Feb-21 Nov-20

Fig 21 – Consumer durables output contracts further

Jan-21

3MMA YoY
Jun-21 Mar-21
May-21

1943.6%
Oct-21 Consumer durables & non-durables production Jul-21
Sep-21
Feb-22 Nov-21
Jan-22
Jun-22 Mar-22
May-22
Oct-22 Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22

8
40
60

(60)
(40)
(20)
20

0%

(50%)
(40%)
(20%)
(30%)
(10%)
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%

Mar-18
Oct-18 May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
Nov-18
Jan-19
Jun-19 Mar-19
May-19
Oct-19 Jul-19
Sep-19
Feb-20 Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
YoY

Jun-20
May-20
Jul-20
Oct-20 Sep-20
Nov-20
Fig 22 – Double digit contraction in FMCG output

Jan-21
Fig 20 – …non-essential spending registers an uptick

Feb-21
3MMA YoY

Mar-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
97%

Sep-21
Oct-21 Nov-21
Jan-22
Feb-22 Mar-22
May-22
Jun-22 Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Agriculture
Fig 23 – Robust growth in agriculture sector Fig 24 – Tractor sales contracts sharply

Agriculture GVA Real GVA (R) MoM

90% 93%
10% 20% 100%
8% 15% 80% 61%
10% 60%
6% 35%
5%
40% 22% 22%
4% 0% 12% 14% 19% 15%
20% 7% 6%
2% (5%)
(10%) 0%
0% (3%) (1%) (3%)
(15%) (20%) (6%)
(12%) (14%)
(2%) (20%) (40%) (20%) (24%) (25%)
(28%)
(4%) (25%) (37%) (42%) (38%) (41%)
(60%)
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-21
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21

Jun-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22

Mar-22
Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22
Nov-22
Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Note: Tractor sales including exports

Fig 25 – Agriculture credit inches up Fig 26 – Procurement of rice and wheat

YoY 3MMA YoY Year Wheat Rice

16% 2014-15 28.02 32.04
14%
2015-16 28.09 34.22
12%
10% 2016-17 22.96 38.11
8% 2017-18 30.83 38.19
6% 2018-19 35.80 44.39
4%
2019-20 34.13 51.83
2%
0% 2020-21 38.99 60.19
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21

Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22

Sep-22
Nov-22

2021-22 43.34 59.27

2022-23 18.8 21.8*

Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution | *As on: 30 Nov 2022

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 9 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 27 – Domestic international rice price moderates; international price inches up Fig 28 – International wheat prices decline further; domestic prices edge up

(Rs/Quintal) International Rice prices Domestic Rice prices MSP-Paddy (R) (Rs/Quintal) International Wheat prices Domestic Wheat prices MSP-Wheat (R)
5,000
2,100 4,500 2,050
3,800
1,900 4,000
1,850
3,500
3,350 1,700
3,000 1,650
1,500 2,500
2,900
2,000 1,450
1,300
2,450 1,500
1,100 1,250
1,000
2,000 900 500 1,050
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22
Source: World Bank Source: World Bank

Fig 29 – Global food prices cool-off further Fig 30 – Wage growth (men) moves up

YoY 3MMA Agri Wages, MoM

0.9%
1.0% 0.7%
40% 0.6%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
0.4%
30% 0.5% 0.2%
0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
0.2% 0.1%
20% 0.0%

10% (0.5%)

0% (1.0%)

(10%) (1.5%)
Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Aug-22

Nov-22
May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jun-21

Aug-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Source: FAO

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 10 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 31 – Rabi sowing is higher compared with last year

Crop Type (mn ha) Area sown in 2022-23 Area sown in 2021-22 Growth (YoY%)
Wheat 32.5 31.4 3.6
Rice 1.7 1.4 20.7
Coarse Cereals 4.7 4.5 4.1
Pulses 15.3 15.0 2.0
Oilseeds 10.4 9.5 9.1
Total 64.5 42.4 4.5
*Note: Till 30 Dec 2022

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 11 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Inflation
Fig 32 – Headline CPI moderated to its 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Fig 33 – …Food inflation got comfort from vegetables and fruits component
Oct’22 on YoY basis, remaining below RBI’s upper tolerance band

CPI, YoY Food inflation, YoY Fruits, YoY Vegetables, YoY Pulses and Products
35% Sugar and Confectionery Food inflation, YoY (R)
13%
12%
10%
5.9% 15%
7%
8%
4% 4.7%
1% (5%)
4%
(2%)
(5%) (25%) 0%
May-18

May-20
Nov-17

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

Mar-22

Jul-22
Jan-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22
Nov-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Nov-22
Fig 34 – Stickiness of core inflation persists Fig 35 – Domestic retail prices was stable at Rs 98/lt, however international crude
prices on an average fell to US$ 81/bbl in Dec’22 from US$ 91/bbl in Nov’22

Nov-21 Oct-22 Nov-22 RBI's upper band Average Brent price Average retail fuel prices (R) (Rs/ltr)
15% (US$/bbl)
10.2%
120 105
9.8% 10.0% 97.8
10% 7.9% 7.7%
7.6% 7.3% 7.6%
6.4% 7.0%7.0% 100
5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 5.4% 5.8% 5.8% 95
4.6%
4.6% 4.6% 5.3%
5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 81.3
1.9% 2.0%
80
85
0% 60
Clothing and

Household Goods

Health
Pan, Tobacco and

Recreation and
Housing

Personal Care and

Education
Communication
Transport and

75
Footwear

Amusement

40
and Services
Intoxicants

Effects

20 65

Jul-21

Jul-22
Dec-20
Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21

Jun-21

Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22

Mar-22
Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Note: Average retail price of petrol and diesel for Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai have been taken

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 12 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Industry

Fig 36 – IIP growth moderates Fig 37 – Sectorwise growth lower, due to base effect

IIP 3MMA YoY Real GVA industry, YoY (R) Apr-Oct'21 Apr-Oct'22
50% 60% 25%
40% 50% 21.8%
20.5% 20.4%
30% 40%
20%
20% 30%
1.7% 20%
10% 15%
10%
0% 11.4%
0%
(10%) 8.6% (0.8%) 9.4%
(10%) 10%
(20%) (4.0%) (20%)
5.3% 5.3%
(30%) (30%) 4.0%
5%
(40%) (40%)
Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jun-19
Aug-19

Dec-19
Feb-20

Jun-20
Aug-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Jun-21
Aug-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Jun-22
Aug-22
0%
IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity
Note: IIP for Oct’22 is on YoY basis

Fig 38 – IIP growth contracts in Oct’22

Sectoral (%) Weight Oct-22 Sep-22 Oct-21 Apr-Oct’22 Apr-Oct’21
IIP 100.0 (4.0) 3.5 4.2 5.3 20.5
Mining 14.4 2.5 5.2 11.5 4.0 20.4
Manufacturing 77.6 (5.6) 2.2 3.3 5.3 21.8
Electricity 8.0 1.2 11.6 3.1 9.4 11.4
Use-Based
Primary Goods 34.1 2.0 9.5 9.0 8.2 14.7
Capital Goods 8.2 (2.3) 11.4 (1.6) 14.0 35.4
Intermediate Goods 17.2 (2.8) 1.7 4.6 5.3 28.0
Infrastructure and Construction Goods 12.3 1.0 7.7 6.6 6.5 32.0
Consumer Durables Goods 12.8 (15.3) (3.2) (3.2) 6.6 30.4
Consumer Non-Durables Goods 15.3 (13.4) (6.3) 0.7 (4.2) 7.2

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 13 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Manufacturing
Fig 39 – Manufacturing growth slows Fig 40 – Manufacturing PMI climbs to highest level in 2-years

Manufacturing PMI IIP,Manufacturing (YoY)

IIP Manufacturing, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Manufacturing, YoY (R)
70 50%
60% 116% 60% 197% 57.8
60 55.7 30%
45% 45%
30% 50 10%
30%
1.6% (5.6%) 40 (10%)
15% 2.2%
15% (5.6%)
0% 30 (30%)
0%
(15%) 4.8%
(0.2%) 20 (50%)
(30%) (15%)
(30%) 10 (70%)
(45%)
(60%) (45%) 0 (90%)

Mar-19

Jun-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Dec-22
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jun-19

Dec-19
Feb-20

Jun-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Jun-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Jun-22
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Note: IIP for Oct’22 is on YoY basis Source: Markit

Mining & Electricity

Fig 41 – Mining activity to inch up in Q3 Fig 42 – Moderate growth in electricity supply

IIP Mining, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Mining, YoY (R) Electricity supply, YoY
30% 28% 25% 23.2%
25%
20%
20% 20% 17.1% 16.2%
15% 6.5% 12%
(2.8%)
10% 15%
2.5% 4% 11.5% 12.3%
5% 10.6% 11.3%
0% 9.5%
(4%) 10% 8.4%
(5%) (0.9%) 5.9%
(10%) (12%) 4.5%
5% 3.1%
(15%) 2.1% 2.8% 2.3%
(20%) 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5%
(20%)
(25%) (28%) 0%

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jun-21

Aug-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
Oct-21
Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jun-19
Aug-19

Dec-19

Feb-21

Feb-22
Feb-20

Jun-20
Aug-20

Dec-20

Jun-21
Aug-21

Dec-21

Jun-22
Aug-22

Note: IIP for Oct’22 is on YoY basis Source:Posoco. Note: Average Energy Met (MU)

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 14 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Infrastructure and construction

Fig 43 – Construction sector to improve in Q3FY23 Fig 44 – Cement production rises in Nov’22

IIP Infra/Constrn, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Construction, YoY ( R) YoY 3MMA YoY
321.4% 80% 75% 606%
85% 60%
65% 60% 45%
16.8% 40% 30%
45% 15%
6.6%
25% 20% 0%
(15%)
5% 0%
(30%)
(15%) 4.8% 1.0% (20%) (45%)
(60%)
(35%) (40%) (75%)
(55%) (60%) (90%)

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Jun-19

Dec-19
Feb-20

Jun-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Jun-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Jun-22
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Note: IIP for Oct’22 is on YoY basis

Infrastructure index
Fig 45 – Growth in infrastructure index improves Fig 46 – Coal production edges upwards

Infrastructure Index, YoY Infrastructure Index, 3MMA YoY 3MMA YoY

62.6%
32%
30%
26%
20% 20%
10% 14%
0% 8%
(10%) 2%
(20%) (4%)
(10%)
(30%)
(16%)
(40%) (22%)
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Aug-18

May-19

Aug-19

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22
Nov-18

Feb-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Nov-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 15 06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Auto production & business expectation index

Fig 47 – Auto production makes a comeback Fig 48 – Business sentiment moderates; Remained optimistic

YoY 3MMA
Current quarter Expectation for next quarter
144% 150
60% 137.5 134.4
140
50% 130
40% 120 110.1
30% 110
20% 100
10% 90
106.7
0% 80
(10%) 70
60
(20%)
50
(30%)

Jun-14

Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15

Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16

Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22

Dec-22
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jul-22

Oct-22
Apr-22
Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Nov-22
Fig 49 – Core sector output acclerates
(%) Weight Nov-22 Oct-22 Nov-21 Apr-Nov’22 Apr-Nov’21
Infrastructure Index 100 5.4 0.9 3.2 8.0 13.9
Coal 10.3 12.3 3.7 8.2 17.2 11.5
Crude Oil 9.0 (1.1) (2.2) (2.2) (1.4) (2.7)
Natural Gas 6.9 (0.7) (4.2) 23.7 0.7 22.8
Petroleum Refinery Products 28.0 (9.3) (3.1) 4.3 5.7 10.6
Fertilizers 2.6 6.4 5.4 2.5 10.0 (0.6)
Steel 17.9 10.8 6.5 0.9 7.1 26.1
Cement 5.4 28.6 (4.3) (3.6) 10.8 28.2
Electricity 19.9 12.1 1.2 2.1 9.7 10.3

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 16 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Investment

Fig 50 – Policy uncertainty index in India rose in Dec’22 amidst concerns over impact Fig 51 – Real GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 compared to 13.5% in Q1,
of global growth slowdown GFCF growth also moderated to 10.4% from 20.1% in Q1

India Policy uncertainty Index

Real GDP, YoY Real GFCF, YoY
200
75%
180
160
50%
140
10.4%
120 25%
100
80 0%
6.3%
60
40 (25%)
20
(50%)
0

Mar-19
Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22
Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Source: policyuncertainty.com Source: policyuncertainty.com

Fig 52 – Capital goods production declined by 2.3% in Oct’22 from 11.4% increase in Fig 53 – Capital goods imports rose by 16.2% in Nov’22 from to 10.3% in Oct’22 led
Sep’22 by favourable base

Capital goods production, YoY Capital goods production, 3MMA YoY Capital goods import YoY Capital goods import, YoY over 2-year horizon
150%
111% 1029%
120%
81%
90%
51%
21% 60%
(9%) 30% 16.2%
(2.3%)
(39%) 0%
(69%) (30%)
(99%) (60%)
Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Feb-20

Jun-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Feb-22

Jun-22

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Mar-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Nov-21

Mar-22

Nov-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 17 06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 54 – Centre’s capex spending noted growth of 67.3% in Nov’22 from 55.5% in Fig 55 – Credit to micro and small industry was at 19.6% in Nov’22 compared to 20.4%
Oct’22, in FY23, capex spending is likely to rise by 24.5% to Rs 7.5tn in Oct’22, for medium industry it was at 29.7% from 31%

Capital spending of the central government 12m trailing sum, YoY Credit to micro & Small industry, YoY Credit to medium industry, YoY
85% 67.3%
85%
60%
65%
35% 45% 29.7%

10% 25%

(15%) 5% 19.6%

(40%) (15%)

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-18

Mar-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Nov-21

Mar-22

Nov-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Mar-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Nov-21

Mar-22

Nov-22
Fig 56 – Credit to housing sector was stable at 16.2% in Nov’22 Fig 57 – Pace of National highway construction

National Highways: Construction (Km)

Credit to housing, YoY Credit to housing, 3MMA, YoY
23% 14,000 13,327
21%
12,000 10,885
19% 16.2% 10,237 10,457
17% 10,000
15%
13% 8,000
11%
6,000 5,118 4,766
9%
7% 4,000
5%
2,000
May-19

Aug-19

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22
Nov-18

Feb-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Nov-22

0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FYTD22 FYTD23
Note: FYTD: Apr-Nov

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 18 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Capex data
Fig 58 – New project announcements rose to Rs 6.1tn in Dec’22 from Rs 3.7tn in Fig 59 – …Led by manufacturing
Sep’22

(Rs bn) New projects New projects, Dec-22 New projects, Sep-22

9,050 1
Mining 83
8,050
7,050
6,081
6,050 Construction & real estate 2
5,050 16
4,050
3,050 Services (other than financial) 377
256
2,050
1,050 576
50 Electricity 1,056
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22

Dec-22
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Manufacturing 5,125
2,258 (Rs bn)
Source: CMIE Source: CMIE

Fig 60 – …Within manufacturing, chemicals, machinery and metals showed the Fig 61 – Within services, transport services and IT improved
sharpest increase

New projects, Dec-22 New projects, Sep-22 New projects, Dec-22 New projects, Sep-22
6
Consumer goods Miscellaneous services 159
34 69
15
Textiles 28
Information technology 137
Food & agro-based products 16 103
44
Miscellaneous manufacturing 19 1
38 Communication services 12
25
Construction materials 63
160 Transport services 76
Transport equipment 49 55
334
Metals & metal products 61 Wholesale & retail trading 0
13
Machinery 2,023
40
Chemicals & chemical products 2,529 Hotels & tourism 5
1,901 5
(Rs bn) (Rs bn)

Source: CMIE Source: CMIE

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 19 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Services sector

Fig 62 – GVA: Services activity eased in Q2FY23, largely due to high base; compared Fig 63 – Services PMI rose further in Dec’22, Q3FY23 average at 56.7 much higher pre-
to pre-pandemic (FY20), activity rose by 7.4% in Q2 versus 3% in Q1 pandemic (Oct-Dec’19) level of 51.7

YoY 17.6% Services PMI 58.5

18% 63
10.5% 56
13%
8% 49
42
3% 9.3% 56.4
35
(2%) 28
(7%) 21
(12%) 14
(17%) 7
(22%) 0

Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Oct-21
Oct-19
Dec-19

Apr-20
Jun-20

Oct-20
Dec-20

Apr-21
Jun-21

Dec-21

Apr-22
Jun-22

Oct-22
Dec-22
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22
Source: Markit

Fig 64 – GVA: Trade & related services activity too moderated in Q2 Fig 65 – States’* tax revenue growth slipped further in Nov’22
3M Trailing sum YoY
YoY
40% 65%
25.7%
30% 50%
20% 27.5%
35%
10%
14.7% 20%
0%
9.6% 18.6%
(10%) 5%
(20%) (10%)
(30%)
(25%)
(40%)
(50%) (40%)

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Nov-22
May-20

May-22
Sep-20

May-21

Sep-21

Sep-22
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, Goa, and J&K

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 20 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Trade
Fig 66 – Vehicle registrations recover (+6.7%) in Q3FY22, following -2.4% decline in Fig 67 – Diesel consumption slowed in Dec’22; however growth Q3 (+12.5%) still
Q2 better than Q2 (11.6%) and pre-pandemic period (0.6% in Q3FY20)
MoM, 3MMA 31.3% %YoY
50%
40% 25% 19.2%
26.4%
30%
15%
20%
1.5%
10% 5% 13.0%
0%
(10%) (5%)
(20%) (7.5%)
(15%)
(30%)
(40%) (25%)
Oct-18

Apr-19
Jun-19

Oct-19

Apr-20
Jun-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Jun-21

Oct-21

Apr-22
Jun-22

Oct-22
Aug-18

Dec-18
Feb-19

Aug-19

Dec-19
Feb-20

Aug-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Aug-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Aug-22

Dec-22

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22

Dec-22
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Fig 68 – Railway freight traffic movement eased further in Dec’22; Q3 saw 3.7% Fig 69 – Port cargo traffic rebounded in Dec’22; however Q3 avg (+5.4%) remains
average growth versus 8.4% in Q2 lower than Q2 (+12.6%)
YoY, 3MMA YoY 3MMA YoY
45%
35% 36%

25% 3.7% 26%

10.4%
15% 5.1%
16%
5% 6%
(5%) (4%)
2.0%
(15%) (14%)
(25%)
(24%)
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Dec-19
Feb-20

Jun-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Jun-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 21 06 January 2023
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 70 – Toll collections see seasonal gains in Dec’22; in YoY terms, collections in Q3 Fig 71 – E-way bill generation sees revival in Nov’22
were lower than Q2

Toll collection, MoM GST E-way bills generated, 3MMA YoY

35.5%
45%
90%

21.8%
35%
21.6%

60%

13.1%
25%
11.2%

11.0%
10.8%

10.6%
15.3%

9.2%

7.8%
7.8%

7.5%
6.5%

5.5%
4.6%
15% 30%

2.6%
2.1%

0.9%
5%
0%
(5%)

(0.05%)

(2.6%)
19.3%

(1.9%)
(3.8%)

(4.6%)

(4.6%)

(4.7%)
(15%) (30%)
Jun-21 (29.1%)
Apr-21 (15.0%)

(25%)
(60%)
(35%)

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-20

Mar-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Jan-22

Mar-22
May-20
Nov-19

Sep-20

Nov-20

May-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

May-22

Sep-22

Nov-22
May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-21
Oct-20

Apr-22

Oct-22
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22
Dec-22
Hotels and communications
Fig 72 – Airline passenger traffic growth still lower than pre-pandemic (2019) levels Fig 73 – Domestic passenger growth turns positive for the 1st time since Feb’20
3-Year horizon, % YoY
3-Year horizon, % YoY
70%
50% 70%
50%
30%
(2.1%) 30%
10% 1.5%
10%
(10%)
(10%)
(30%) (9.4%) (30%) (7.3%)
(50%)
(50%)
(70%) (70%)
(90%) (90%)
(110%) (110%)
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Mar-18

Sep-18
Dec-18

Sep-19
Dec-19

Sep-20
Dec-20

Sep-21
Dec-21

Sep-22
Dec-22

Mar-18
Jun-18

Mar-19
Jun-19

Mar-20
Jun-20

Mar-21
Jun-21

Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-18
Dec-18

Sep-19
Dec-19

Sep-20
Dec-20

Sep-21
Dec-21

Sep-22
Dec-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 22 06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 74 – Railway passenger traffic seen recovering in Dec’22 Fig 75 – Number of telecom subcribers fell by 1.8mn in Oct’22, compared with 3.7mn
decline in Sep’22
%MoM (mn) Number of Subscribers

1,144
1,145
100% 1,200
80%
60% 1,150
40% 1,100
3.2%
20%
1,050
0%
(20%) 1,000
0.7%
(40%) 950
(60%)
900
(80%)
(100%) 850

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-20
Nov-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Sep-22

Nov-22
Finance and real estate
Fig 76 – Growth in GVA: Finance, real estate & prof. eased in Q2FY23 Fig 77 – Both credit and deposit growth eased in Dec’22

YoY Deposit growth, 3MMA YoY Credit growth, 3MMA YoY 16.3%
18%
13% 9.2%
10% 6.1% 16%
16.8%
7% 13%
4%
7.2%
1% 11%

(2%) 8%
10.3%
(5%) 9.3%
6%
(8%)
(11%) 3%
*
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22

Dec-22
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

*as of fortnight ending 16 Dec 2022

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 23 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 78 – Credit to services continues to outpace credit to industries Fig 79 – Credit to NBFCs improving the most; trade records marginal easing

Industry credit, 3MMA YoY Services credit, 3MMA YoY Trade, 3MMA YoY Commercial real estate, 3MMA YoY NBFCs, 3MMA YoY
29% 75%
65%
24%
55%
19%
45%
14%
35%
9%
25%
4% 15%
(1%) 5%
(6%) (5%)
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19

Feb-22
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21

May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22

Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19

May-20
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20

Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Fig 80 – Property sales volumes moderated in Q3FY23; sales in CY22 were 50% higher Fig 81 – Stamp duty collections of all states in FYTD23 continues to surpass pre-
than CY21 pandemic levels (FYTD20)
Prop sales volume (%QoQ)
59.0%

(Rs bn) Apr-Nov'19 Apr-Nov'21 Apr-Nov'22

258
80%

49.0%
60% 300

19.0%
15.0%

40% 250

190
9.3%

7.0%

171
9.1%

162
20% 200

128

110
150

114
0%

108

87

82
94
100

84

65
(20%)

53
73
(5.0%)

46
45
(7.9%)

72

70

50

40
39
54

36

25
(12.7%)

47

46
57
52
43

27
53
(16.0%)

24

21
50

42

36
37
(40%)

28
(25.0%)

(27.0%)

16
Jun-20 (79.5%)

0
(57.0%)

(60%)

Madhya Pradesh

Kerala
Maharashtra

Karnataka

Rajasthan

Andhra Pradesh

Punjab
Uttar Pradesh

Telangana

Gujarat
Tamil Nadu

Haryana

West Bengal
(80%)
Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Source: Proptiger

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 24 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Labour market
Fig 82 – Naukri job index rebounded in Nov’22; and compared with Nov’19 the index Fig 83 – Overall unemployment rate rose further in Dec’22
remain 29.4% higher
% MoM (%) India unemployment rate
40% 14
26.5%
30%
20% 12

10%
10 8.3
0% 8.0
(10%) 8
(20%)
(13.9%) (20.9%)
(30%) 6

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jun-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21

Jun-21

Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22

Mar-22
Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22
Nov-22
May-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Public administration
Fig 84 – Public administration & defence services too dragged services growth down Fig 85 – General govt. spending inched further up in Nov’22
in Q2
YoY 3M Trailing sum YoY
26.3%
28%
63%
22%
53%
16% 43% 21.3%
10% 33% 17.1%
4% 23%
6.5%
13%
(2%)
3%
(8%)
(7%)
(14%) (17%)
Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Nov-22
May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 25 06 January 2023
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 86 – …mirroring trend in Central government spending Fig 87 – State* Govt. spending broadly steady
3M Trailing sum YoY
3M Trailing sum YoY 40%
108% 30%
10.5%
83% 20%
31.9%
58% 10%
23.7% 10.7%
33% 0%

8% (10%)

(17%) (20%)

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Nov-22
May-20

Sep-20

May-21

Sep-21

May-22

Sep-22
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, Goa, and J&K

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 26 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Financial sector
Money and banking
Fig 88 – Credit demand rose to 17.4% in Dec’22 from 17.2% in Nov’22, deposit growth Fig 89 – …Time deposits inched up; demand deposits moderated
stood at 9.4% against 9.6% in Nov’22

Deposit, YoY* Credit, YoY* Demand deposit, YoY* Time deposit, YoY*
20% 17.4% 35%
18% 30%
16%
25%
14%
12% 20%
10% 15%
8% 10%
6% 9.4%
5%
4%
2% 0%

Jul-21

Jul-22
Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Nov-20

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Dec-22
Aug-20

Feb-21

May-21

Sep-22
Jul-21

Oct-21

Apr-22
Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Jan-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22
Note: *Dec’22 implies fortnight as of 16 Dec 2022 Note: *Dec’22 implies fortnight as of 16 Dec 2022

Fig 90 – CD ratio rose to 75.8% Fig 91 – Pace of accretion of credit, investment and deposit

(Rs tn) ∆ Deposit ∆ Credit ∆ Investment

Credit deposit ratio*
30
77% 75.8%
76% 25 7.2 2.7
0.6 4.0
4.1
75% 20
74% 5.9 11.5 3.7 5.8 9.4
2.7
2.1
15 2.8 1.3 2.9 12.6
73% 1.2 2.4
2.2 7.3 6.0
72% 1.8 1.9 7.0 6.5 5.4 7.1 7.8 1.4
10 0.7 6.7
71% 4.3 4.1 4.7 14.3 15.5 13.5 2.5
5 4.1 4.2 11.5 9.9
70% 0.6 8.4 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.5 8.9
2.6 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.0 6.7
69% 0 2.0 -0.2
68%
(5)
Jul-21

Jul-22
Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Nov-20

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Dec-22
Aug-20

Feb-21

May-21

Sep-22

FYTD22

FYTD23
FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22
Note: *Dec’22 implies fortnight as of 16 Dec 2022 Note: FYTD:Apr-Dec

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 27 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 92 – Credit to govt rose to 9% in Oct’22 from 8.9% in Sep’22, credit to commercial Fig 93 – Spread between call rate and repo
sector rose to 16.3% from 15.1%

Credit to Govt, YoY Credit to Comm sector, YoY

45% (bps) Average spread of WALR over repo (WALR-Repo)
14
20 6
35%
0
25% (20) (12) (12)
(40)
15% (38) (40)
(60) (50) (50)
(55)
5% (80) (66) (61)
(76) (80) (72) (73) (69)
(83) (83) (88) (87) (80) (83) (79)
-5% (100) (85) (86)
(120)
-15%

Jul-21

Jul-22
Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Jun-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22
Dec-22
May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-09

Oct-20
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08

Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19

Oct-21
Oct-22
Fig 94 – WALR rose to 8.26% in Nov’22 from 7.98% in Oct’22, WADTDR also inched Fig 95 – CIC accretion in FYTD23 is at Rs 969bn against Rs 1.3tn seen in the same
up to 5.62% from 5.49% period of last year

WALR_Fresh rupee loans, PSBs WADTDR, PSBs

(Rs bn) Change in currency in circulation (CIC)
12%
6,000
11% 5,073 4,948
10% 5,000
8.26% 4,193
9% 4,000
3,095 2,997
8% 2,769
3,000
7% 5.62%
2,000
6% 1,283
969
5% 1,000
May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FYTD22 FYTD23

Note: FYTD:Apr-Dec

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 28 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 96 – 10Y GSec yield rose edged down to 7.33% from 7.28% in Nov’22 and Fig 97 – Yield curve has flattened considerably compared to last year
currently trading at the same level, inflation moderated to 5.9% in Nov’22

CPI, YoY 10 year Gsec (R)* (India Yield curve) 31-Dec-21 30-Nov-22 30-Dec-22
13% 9% 9
7.33% 8 7.23 7.32 7.43
11% 8% 6.71
6.69 6.85 7.39
7
9% 7.28
7% 7.13 6.90
6 6.71
7% 6.45
5
6% 5.53
5% 5.25
4
3% 5% 3 3.92

1% 4% 2
Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
1
6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 15Y
Note: *As on last trading day of the month Source: Bloomberg

Fig 98 – Corporate debt issuance rose to Rs 766bn in Nov’22 from Rs 347bn in Oct’22 Fig 99 – Average system liquidity surplus was at Rs 632bn in Dec’22 from Rs 481bn
in Nov’22 and currently higher at Rs 1.5tn surplus

(Rs bn) Corporate Debt: Private Placement: Value (Rs bn) Total liquidity for banking sector
900 831
776 766
800 731
689
700
600
477 493 (1,500)
500 449 449
400 347
300 256
180
200 144
100
(6,500)
0

28-05-2022
05-06-2022

21-06-2022
29-06-2022
07-07-2022
15-07-2022

31-07-2022
08-08-2022
16-08-2022
24-08-2022
01-09-2022
09-09-2022
17-09-2022

03-10-2022
11-10-2022
19-10-2022
27-10-2022

12-11-2022
20-11-2022
28-11-2022
06-12-2022
14-12-2022
22-12-2022
30-12-2022
13-06-2022

23-07-2022

25-09-2022

04-11-2022
Jul-22
Mar-22

Oct-22
Apr-22
Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

May-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Source: RBI

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 29 06 January 2023

 50

(50)
0
100
150
200
250
80

30

(20)
130
180
230
280
Dec-15 Dec-15
Mar-16 Mar-16
May-16 May-16
Aug-16 Aug-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Jan-17 Jan-17
as on 30 Nov 2022

ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Mar-17 Mar-17
Jun-17 Jun-17
Aug-17 Aug-17
Nov-17 Nov-17
Jan-18 Jan-18
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Apr-18 Apr-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Aug-18 Aug-18
Nov-18 Nov-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 3Y AAA

Jun-19 Jun-19

Average traded spreads of corporates for 3Y AAA

Sep-19 Sep-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Feb-20 Feb-20
Apr-20 Apr-20
Jul-20 Jul-20
Sep-20 Sep-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Mean+SD

Feb-21 Feb-21

Mean+SD
May-21 May-21
Jul-21 Jul-21
Sep-21 Sep-21
Fig 102 – 3Y AAA corp it rose to 42bps from 14bps as on 30 Nov 2022

Dec-21 Dec-21
Feb-22 Feb-22
May-22 May-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Mean-SD
Mean-SD

Oct-22 Oct-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Fig 100 – 3Y AAA NBFC spread rose to 57bps as on 30 Dec 2022 compared to 27bps

30
20
40
60
80

0
100
120
140
160

20
60
80

40

0
100
120
140
160
180

Dec-15
Dec-11
Nov 2022

Apr-12 Mar-16
Jul-12 May-16
Nov-12 Aug-16
Feb-13 Oct-16
Jun-13 Jan-17
Sep-13 Mar-17
Jan-14 Jun-17
Apr-14 Aug-17
Aug-14
Nov-14 Nov-17
Feb-15 Jan-18
Jun-15 Apr-18
Sep-15 Jun-18
Jan-16 Aug-18
Apr-16 Nov-18
Aug-16 Jan-19
Nov-16
Apr-19
Mar-17
Jun-17 Jun-19
Average traded spreads of corporates for 10Y AAA
Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 10Y AAA

Sep-17 Sep-19
Jan-18 Nov-19
Apr-18 Feb-20
Aug-18 Apr-20
Nov-18 Jul-20
Mar-19 Sep-20
Jun-19
Dec-20
Oct-19
Feb-21
Mean+SD

Mean+SD

Jan-20
Fig 103 – For 10Y AAA corp spread it remained stable at 31bps

May-20 May-21
Aug-20 Jul-21
Nov-20 Sep-21
Mar-21 Dec-21
Jun-21 Feb-22
Oct-21 May-22
Jan-22
May-22 Jul-22
Mean-SD

Mean-SD

Aug-22 Oct-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Fig 101 – For 10Y AAA NBFC it fell to 32bps as on 30 Dec 2022 from 42bps as on 30

06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 104 – INR 3Y swap was at 6.41 as on 30 Dec 2022 against 6.33 as on 30 Nov 2022 Fig 105 – For 10Y, it was at 6.55 compared to 6.42 seen on 30 Nov 2022

INR Swap 3-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD INR Swap 10-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD
11 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3
3

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Interest rates on small savings schemes
Fig 106 – Interest rates on small savings scheme increased in Q4 as well
Instrument (%) Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23
Savings deposit 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
1 year time deposit 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.6
2 year time deposit 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.8
3 year time deposit 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.8 6.9
5 year time deposit 7.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0
5 year recurring deposit 7.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
5 year senior citizen savings
8.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.0
scheme
5 year monthly income scheme 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.1
5 year national savings certificate 7.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0
Public provident fund scheme 7.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
Kisan vikas patra 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2
Sukanya samriddhi account
8.4 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6
scheme
Source: Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 31 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 107 – MCLR rate of banks increased

1Y MCLR (%) Oct’21 Nov’21 Dec’21 Jan’22 Feb’22 Mar’22 Apr’22 May’22 Jun’22 Jul’22 Aug’22 Sep’22 Oct’22 Nov’22 Dec’22
Public Sector Banks
Bank of Baroda 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.35 7.40 7.50 7.65 7.70 7.80 7.95 8.05 8.30
Bank of India 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.35 7.50 7.60 7.70 7.80 7.95 8.15
Canara Bank 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.35 7.40 7.50 7.65 7.75 7.90 8.10 8.15
Indian Bank 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.55 7.65 7.75 7.85 8.10 8.20
Punjab National Bank 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.40 7.55 7.65 7.70 7.75 8.05 8.10
State Bank of India 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.20 7.40 7.50 7.70 7.70 7.95 8.05 8.30
Union Bank of India 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.35 7.45 7.55 7.70 7.75 7.90 8.20 8.25
Private Sector Banks
Axis Bank Ltd. 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.40 7.75 7.95 8.00 8.05 8.10 8.35 8.45 8.75
HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.85 8.05 8.10 8.20 8.20 8.55 8.60
ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.55 7.75 7.90 8.00 8.10 8.30 8.40
Indusind Bank 8.45 8.45 8.45 8.45 8.45 8.50 8.55 8.75 9.00 9.10 9.30 9.40 9.55 9.80 9.95
Kotak Mahindra Bank 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.25 7.30 7.35 7.40 7.65 7.85 8.05 8.10 8.20 8.45 8.55 8.65
Source: RBI

Mutual fund (MF) indicators

Fig 108 – Sensex fell by 3.6% to 60,841 in Dec’22, AUM of MFs rose to Rs 40.4tn in Fig 109 – MF equity inflows moderated to Rs 19bn from Rs 90bn in Oct’22; however,
Nov’22 compared to Rs 39.5tn in Oct’22 debt inflow rose to Rs 70bn from Rs 28bn outflow seen in Oct’22

(Rs tn) AUM: Mutual fund BSE sensex* (R) (Rs bn) Net inflow Equity Net inflow Debt (R) (Rs bn)
42 60,841 70,000 300
37 60,000 250 1,500
32 200
50,000 150 500
27
22 40,000 100
50 (500)
17 30,000
0
12
20,000 (50) (1,500)
7 (100)
2 10,000
(150) (2,500)
(3) 0

Feb-22

Jul-22
Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Nov-22
May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Nov-02

Nov-04

Nov-06

Nov-08

Nov-10

Nov-12

Nov-14

Nov-16

Nov-18

Nov-20

Nov-22

Source: *Sensex as on last trading day of the month.

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 32 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Insurance sector indicators

Fig 110 – Sale of life insurance policies fell by 1.2% in Nov’22 much slower Fig 111 – Gross direct premium for non-life insurance rose to 22.1% in Nov’22 from
compared to 17% decline seen in Oct’22 15.5% in Oct’22, led by favourable base

Number of life insurance policies sold, YoY Non life insurance: Gross direct premium, YoY
272% 35%
222% 25% 22.1%
172% 15%
122% 5%
72% (5%)
22% (15%)
(28%) (25%)
-1.2%
(78%) (35%)

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-21

Mar-21

Jan-22

Mar-22
May-21

Sep-21

May-22

Sep-22
Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-21

Mar-21

Jan-22

Mar-22
May-21

Sep-21

May-22

Sep-22

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 33 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Public finance
Central government finances
Fig 112 – Fiscal deficit breaches 7% mark in Nov’22 Fig 113 – Revenue deficit too picking up

% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum % of GDP, 12M Trailing sum

9% 7.8%
7.1%
8% 6.9% 6.8%
4.4%
7% 5.8%
4.2%
6% 4.8%
5% 3.8%
4% 2.8%
3% 1.8%
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Fig 114 – …similar trend was visible in primary deficit Fig 115 – Government spending too picking up pace (12MMA)

12M Trailing sum YoY

% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum
40%
6%
3.7% 35%
5% 30%
3.5%
4% 25%
3% 20% 13.2%
15%
2%
10%
1% 5% 11.9%
0% 0% Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 34 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 116 – …supported by revenue spending Fig 117 – …and sharp pick up in Capex

12M Trailing sum YoY 12M Trailing sum YoY

67.3%
35% 65%
30% 50%
25% 35%
55.5%
20% 5.5% 20%
15% 5%
5.3% (10%)
10%
5% (25%)
0% (40%)

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Fig 118 – In FYTD23, ministries of road transport, chemicals, HRD, have supported pick up government spending
Ministry Apr-Nov'20 Apr-Nov'21 % change Apr-Nov’22 % change
Ministry of Finance 6,803 7,701 13.2 8,459 9.8
Ministry of Defence 2,980 3,174 6.5 3,354 5.6
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution 1,403 1,763 25.7 1,481 (16.0)
Ministry of Rural Development 1,470 968 (34.2) 955 (1.3)
Ministry of Home Affairs 954 1,077 12.9 1,210 12.4
Ministry of Human Resource Development 409 443 8.3 587 32.6
Ministry of Road Transport and Highways 595 806 35.4 1,580 96.1
Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers 662 656 (0.9) 1,526 132.7
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 231 43 (81.3) 23 (46.5)
Ministry of Agriculture 747 664 (11.1) 682 2.6
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 499 470 (5.7) 433 (8.0)

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 35 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 119 – Receipt growth inched up slightly in Nov’22, led by pickup in capital receipts Fig 120 – Revenue receipts eased a tad
12M Trailing sum YoY
12M Trailing sum YoY
50%
63%
40%
53%
30% 43%
20% 33%
2.4%
10% 23%
13% 2.5%
0%
2.2% 3%
(10%)
(7%) 2.6%
(20%) (17%)
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Fig 121 – Tax receipts seen picking up on 12MMA basis Fig 122 – Non-tax revenue growth however continues to moderate

12M Trailing sum YoY 12M Trailing sum YoY

56%
60%
46% 7.3%
40%
36%
20%
26%
0%
16% 1.8%
5.5%
6% (20%)

(4%) (40%)
(14%) 2.0% (60%)

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 36 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 123 – Centre’s spending continues maintain momentum, revenues seeing some slowdown
Apr-Nov'20 Apr-Nov'21 % change Apr-Nov'22 % change
Gross Tax revenue 10,261 15,419 50.3 17,807 15.5
Direct taxes 4,207 6,997 66.3 8,668 23.9
Corp Tax 1,857 3,536 90.4 4,282 21.1
Income Tax 2,350 3,461 47.2 4,386 26.7
Indirect taxes 6,053 8,423 39.1 9,138 8.5
Non-tax revenue 1,243 2,230 79.5 1,983 (11.1)
Centre's revenue (net) 8,127 13,583 67.1 14,232 4.8
Total expenditure 19,064 20,746 8.8 24,428 17.7
Capital exp 2,412 2,736 13.5 4,471 63.4
Revenue exp 16,652 18,010 8.2 19,957 10.8
Fiscal deficit 10,755 6,956 - 9,782 -

Fig 124 – Gross direct tax collections slowed in Nov’22 Fig 125 – Gross indirect tax collections also seen coming down

12M Trailing sum YoY 12M Trailing sum YoY

54% 44%
29.9% 38%
44%
32%
34%
26%
24%
28.6% 20%
14% 6.2%
14%
4% 8%
(6%) 4.4%
2%
(16%) (4%)
(26%) (10%)

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 37 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 126 – Corporate tax collections cooling off… Fig 127 – …while income tax collections are holding ground

12M Trailing sum YoY 12M Trailing sum YoY

65%
47% 31.3%
55%
45% 28.6% 41%
35% 35%
29%
25%
23%
15% 31.7%
25.7% 17%
5%
11%
(5%) 5%
(15%) (1%)
(25%) (7%)
(35%) (13%)
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Fig 128 – GST collections for Oct’22 eased a tad; Although collections still remain above Rs 1.4 lakh crore mark for the 11th consecutive month
Monthly
FY23
(Rs bn) Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 run rate FYTD23
(BE)
(FY23)
CGST 492 462 697 482 633 641 499 654 554 519 547 722 578 589 4,714 6,600
UT GST 1.2 2.5 4.3 1.6 12.3 1.6 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.5 4.1 6.0 5.2 3 25 -
IGST 72 146 (279) 79 (145) 113 47 (164) 69 89 100 (194) (26) 4 35 -
SGST* 637 681 814 758 1,084 549 796 890 705 768 767 821 834 766 6,130 -
Cess 94 91 95 101 91 104 102 107 107 99 100 103 103 103 825 1,200
Total GST 1,298 1,384 1,330 1,421 1,675 1,409 1,446 1,490 1,436 1,477 1,517 1,459 1,495 1,466 11,729 -
Source: PIB | *Computed from PIB and CGA data

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 38 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 129 – Rising central government debt a key concern Fig 130 – Spread between 10Y G-sec and SDL yield fell significantly in Dec’22, and is
further down in Jan’23 so far

(% of GDP) Public debt-GDP (%) SDL Yield G-Sec (10Y)

65% 8.6
59.9% 60.2%
8.1
60%
7.6
55% 51.9%
7.1
50% 47.7%
45.7% 6.6
45%
6.1
40% 5.6

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-19

Apr-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Oct-22

Jan-23
35%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22RE FY23BE
Source: CCIL

Fig 131 – Subsidy burden to inch up in FY23E Fig 132 – Central govt. FY23 disinvestment status showing weakperformace so far

Total subsidy, % of GDP Fertilizer subsidy, % of GDP Food subsidy, % of GDP Nov'22 (FYTD23) Deficit BE FY23: 793
800
4.5%
700 BE FY23: 650
4.0% 3.8%
3.5% 600 378
3.0% 2.7% 500
2.5% 366
2.1% 2.0% 400
2.0%
1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 300
1.2%
1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 415
0.5% 0.8% 200
0.5% 0.4% 284
0.0% 0.4% 0.6%0.6% 100
FY23E
FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22RE

FY23BE

0
Disinvestment of Govt.'s equity holdings Total Non-debt capital receipts

RE-Revised Estimates; BE-Budget Estimates; E-Bank of Baroda estimates

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 39 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Central government borrowing

Fig 133 – Centre’s T-bill issuances in Q3FY23 has been at Rs 3.6tn Fig 134 – Centre’s gross borrowing in Q3FY23 is at Rs 3.5tn
Total accepted amount FY23 Total accepted amount FY23
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
(G-Sec), (Rs bn) (planned) (G-Sec), (Rs bn) (planned)
Q1 2,797 2,888 3,089 3,364 5,328 5,375 5,247 4,320 Q1 1,500 1,680 1,320 2,040 3,140 3,064 3,570 3,900

Q2 2,584 3,186 3,299 3,024 5,417 3,215 3,704 2,730 Q2 1,910 1,890 1,440 2,210 4,220 3,649 4,390 4,550

Q3 2,747 2,632 3,070 2,889 3,745 3,630 3,589 2,860 Q3 1,610 1,640 1,270 1,930 2,910 3,190 3,530 2,320

Q4 1,684 2,486 1,812 2,511 2,714 4,766 - 3,800 Q4 800 670 1680 920 3,191 1370 - 3,440

Total 9,811 11,192 11,271 11,788 17,204 16,986 13,710 Total 5,820 5,880 5,710 7,100 13,461^ 11,273 - 14,210
Source: RBI Source: RBI^ Against budgeted Rs 12.8tn

State government borrowing

Fig 135 – State government borrowings slowed further in Dec’22 Fig 136 – States’ market borrowings have reached only 48% of the planned amount
so far (FYTD basis)
(Rs bn) Monthly SDL issuances Quarterly SDL issuances, FYTD23 FY23
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
(Rs bn) (actual) (planned)
950
Q1 548 650 766 815 1,673 1,446 1,102 1,904
800
648
650 544 552
535 Q2 792 1,130 809 1,439 1,614 1,644 1,661 2,116
500

350 Q3 1,214 1,054 1,277 1,470 2,023 1,653 1,879 2,531

200

50 Q4 1,322 1,348 1,809 2,006 1,898 2,184 135* 3,408

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-20
Apr-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21

Jun-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Mar-22
Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22
May-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

Nov-21
Dec-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
Sep-22

Nov-22
Dec-22

Total 3,876 4,182 4,661 5,731 7,206 6,927 4,778* 9,958

Source: RBI Source: RBI; *as of 3 Jan 2023

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 40 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

External sector
Exports
Fig 137 – Global exports moderating Fig 138 – After falling by 16.1% in Oct’22, India’s exports increase marginally by 0.6% in
Nov’22
(%)
India exports, YoY 3MMA World exports index, YoY 3MMA (R) Exports, YoY Exports, 3MMA YoY
100% 90%
17%
80% 70%
12%
60% 50%
40% 7%
30%
20% 2%
10%
0% (3%)
(10%)
(20%) (8%)
(30%)
(40%) (13%)
(50%)
(60%) (18%) (70%)
Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-14
Mar-15

Nov-15
Mar-16

Nov-16
Mar-17

Nov-17
Mar-18

Nov-18
Mar-19

Nov-19
Mar-20

Nov-20
Mar-21

Nov-21
Mar-22

Nov-22

Nov-18

Feb-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Nov-22
May-19

Aug-19

May-20

May-21
Aug-20

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22
Exports by major sectors
Fig 139 – Non-oil exports increased by 1.1% in Nov’22, recovering from a 17.4% drop Fig 140 – Exports of gems and jewellery record an increase of 4.6% in Nov’22
in Oct’22 compared with a decline of 21.6% in Oct’22
Non-oil exports, YoY Non-oil exports, 3MMA YoY Gems and jewellery, YoY Gems and jewellery, 3MMA YoY
130% 240%
105% 190%
80% 140%
55%
90%
30%
40%
5%
(10%)
(20%)
(45%) (60%)

(70%) (110%)
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
May-19

Aug-19

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 41 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 141 – Improvement in agricultural exports Fig 142 – Engineering goods exports contract at the slowest pace in 5 months
Engineering goods, YoY Engineering goods, 3MMA YoY
Agriculture and allied products, YoY Agriculture and allied products, 3MMA YoY
210%
35%
25% 170%
15% 130%
5% 90%
(5%)
50%
(15%)
(25%) 10%
(35%) (30%)
(45%) (70%)
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-17
Feb-18

Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19

Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20

Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21

Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22

Aug-22
Nov-22

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18

Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19

Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20

Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21

Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Imports
Fig 143 – Import growth slows down to 5.4% in Nov’22 from 10% in Oct’22 Fig 144 – .. led by a moderation in oil imports

Imports, YoY Imports, 3MMA YoY Oil imports, YoY Oil imports, 3MMA YoY
170% 215%

130% 180%
145%
90% 110%

50% 75%
40%
10% 5%
(30%)
(30%)
(65%)
(70%) (100%)
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 42 06 January 2023
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Fig 145 – Project goods imports fall sharply by 43% in Nov’22, after increasing 9% in Fig 146 – Import of chemicals and related products also moderates
Oct’22

Project goods, YoY Project goods, 3MMA YoY Chemicals and related products, YoY Chemicals and related products, 3MMA YoY
100%
200%
80%
150%
60%
100%
40%
50%
20%
0% 0%
(50%) (20%)
(100%) (40%)
Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18

Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19

Feb-20
May-20

May-21
Aug-20

Feb-21

Aug-21

Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22

Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Fig 147 – Imports of vegetable oils continues to dip Fig 148 – Gold imports stagnant
Gold imports, YoY Gold imports, 3MMA YoY
Vegetable oils, YoY Vegetable oils, 3MMA YoY 840%
150%
720%
110% 600%
480%
70%
360%
30%
240%
(10%) 120%
0%
(50%)
(120%)
Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-18
May-18

May-19
Aug-18

Feb-19

Aug-19

Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20

Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21

Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 43 06 January 2023
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Exports and imports by major regions

Fig 149 – Exports to China have declined sharply in FYTD23
Region (% YoY) Share in FY22 FYTD22 FYTD23 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22
Americas 23.8 55.8 13.0 (0.9) (15.7) 12.5
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 27.2 51.6 0.2 (1.4) (21.4) (17.4)
China 5.1 14.4 (36.6) (39.9) (44.2) (31.0)
Europe 20.6 64.2 18.6 4.8 (4.5) 17.7
Middle East and Africa 22.8 56.6 31.2 26.1 2.5 36.6
Other 0.6 32.8 155.2 103.3 20.5 183.2

Fig 150 – Imports from all regions have moderated in FYTD23

Region (% YoY) Share in FY22 FYTD22 FYTD23 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22
Americas 11.8 69.7 22.6 (8.4) 2.1 14.5
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 24.2 59.5 31.2 19.2 3.3 5.6
China 15.4 52.4 14.8 2.9 (9.7) (5.4)
Europe 13.9 74.4 4.2 (1.1) (15.2) 2.9
Middle East and Africa 32.3 106.1 34.9 13.5 19.3 (0.9)

Other 2.3 45.2 295.8 294.5 397.1 395.3

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 44 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Trade deficit
Fig 151 – Trade deficit narrowed to US$ 23.9bn in Nov’22 from US$ 27.6bn in Oct’22 Fig 152 – … as oil prices declined

(US$ bn) (US$ bn) Trade balance Crude prices (Avg.) (R) (US$/bbl)
Trade balance
3 4 120
0 0
(3)
(6) (4) 95
(9) (8)
(12) (12)
(15) 70
(18) (16)
(21) (20)
(24) 45
(24)
(27)
(30) (28)
(33) (32) 20
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-17
May-17

Feb-18
May-18
Aug-17

Aug-18

Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19

Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20

Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21

Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22

Nov-18

Feb-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

Nov-22
May-19

Aug-19

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21

May-22

Aug-22
Trade in services BoP
Fig 153 – Services exports rise by 30.7% in Nov’22 from 24.6% in Oct’22 Fig 154 – India’s current account deficit expanded to 4.4% of GDP in Q2FY23 from
2.2% of GDP in Q1FY23
Current account balance as % of GDP
(YoY) Services exports, YoY Services exports, YoY 3MMA
45% 5%

35% 3%
Q1FY23, -2.2%
25%
1%
15%
(1%)
5%

(5%) (3%)
Q2FY23, -4.4%
(15%) (5%)
Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18

Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19

Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20

Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21

Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22

Jun-16

Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19

Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20

Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21

Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 45 06 January 2023
 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Foreign inflows
FPI inflows FDI inflows

Fig 155 – FPI inflows of US$ 1.1bn in Dec’22 compared with inflows of US$ 4.4bn in Fig 156 – FDI equity inflows almost stagnant
Nov’22

(US$ bn) FPI-Net equity FPI-Net debt FPI-Net Total, 12M Trailing sum (R) (US$ bn) (US$ bn) FDI inflows FDI inflows, 12M Trailing sum (R) (US$ bn)
12 18 75
36
16 70
28
6 14
20 65
12 12
0 60
4 10
55
(4) 8
(6) 50
(12) 6
4 45
(12) (20)
2 40
(28)
(18) (36) 0 35

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Source: Bloomberg Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 157 – FDI inflows moderated across industries in Q2FY23 Fig 158 – Barring UK, FDI inflows from other regions slowed down in Q2FY23
% Share Country (US$ bn) % Share FY22 FYTD22 FYTD23 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Sector FYTD22 FYTD23 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
FY22
Computer software and hardware 43.8 7.1 6.3 4.2 3.4 2.9 Singapore 27.0 8.1 10.0 4.2 5.7 4.3
Construction (Infrastructure) 17.9 4.6 2.6 3.0 1.5 1.1
13.2 1.2 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.3
activities US
Services Sector 8.5 3.2 4.2 1.8 2.6 1.6 Mauritius 16.0 4.3 3.3 2.8 2.4 0.9
Trading 4.4 2.1 3.3 1.5 2.0 1.2
Netherlands 7.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.7
Automobile industry 2.7 4.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2
UK 2.8 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.6
Drugs and Pharmaceuticals 2.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2
Metallurigcal industries 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 Japan 2.5 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.3

Source: DIPP Source: DIPP

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 46 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Forex reserves and external debt

Fig 159 – India’s FX reserves at US$ 553bn in Dec’22, down US$ 54.8bn in FYTD23 Fig 160 – India’s import cover improves marginally in Nov’22 supported by increase in
FX reserves
(US$ bn) Forex reserves USD/INR (R)
(Months) Import cover Average import cover (Nov'17 to Nov'22)
650 84 20
600
80 18
550
76 16
500
450 72 14
400 12
68
350
10
64
300
8
250 60

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22
Source: Bloomberg | Weekly data as of 23 Dec 2022

Fig 161 – RBI’s sold US$ 922mn in the spot market in Oct’22 Fig 162 – RBI’s outstanding forwards position dips sharply in Oct’22

(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Cash (US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Forwards (outstanding)
18 80
14
65
10
6 50
2 35
(2)
(6) 20
(10) 5
(14)
(10)
(18)
(22) (25)
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18

Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19

Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21

Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22

Oct-22

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Oct-21
Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 47 06 January 2023
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Markets
Equity
Fig 163 – In Dec’22, Sensex fell by 5%, MSCI EM was down by 1.6% Fig 164 – In CY22 as well, Sensex fell by 5.2%

Equity Index MoM (% change) Equity Index CY22 (% change)

Russia (42.1%)
Korea (5.3%) Korea (29.2%)
India (5.0%) MSCI EM Equity (21.8%)
US (4.2%) China (21.1%)
Indonesia (2.2%) Japan (20.3%)
Australia (1.8%) Germany (17.0%)
MSCI EM Equity (1.6%) Hong Kong (14.4%)
Japan (0.7%) Australia (11.9%)
UK (0.3%) UK (9.8%)
Germany 0.4% US (8.8%)
China 0.8% India (5.2%)
Singapore 1.0% Indonesia (4.3%)
Portugal 1.4% Portugal (3.3%)
Thailand 3.9% Thailand (3.2%)
Greece 5.8% Greece (2.1%)
Hong Kong 6.4% Singapore 5.1%

Source: Bloomberg | * As on 30 Dec 2022, Indices are in US$ terms Source: Bloomberg | * As on 30 Dec 2022, Indices are in US$ terms

Fig 165 – Power and technology stocks fell the most in Dec’22 Fig 166 – VIX index rose to 14.87 in Dec’22 from 13.81 in Nov’22

Performance of majore sectors in BSE, MoM NSE volatility index Chicago board options exchange volatility index (R)
POWER (6.8%) 35
85
TECK (6.1%) 75
30
AUTO (4.8%) 65
25 55
CONSUMER DURABLES (4.3%) 45
20 35
REALTY (3.9%)
15 25
CAPITAL GOODS (1.5%) 15
OIL AND GAS (1.0%) 10 5

May-22

Aug-22

Sep-22
Dec-21

Feb-22

Mar-22

Jun-22

Nov-22

Dec-22
BANKEX (0.9%)

Source: Bloomberg | As on 30 Dec 2022 Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 48 06 January 2023

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10-year bond yields

Fig 167 – On MTD basis, India’s 10Y yield remained flat Fig 168 – In CY22, India’s 10Y yield rose by 87bps, in line with global yields

10 year generic yields movement MTD (30 Dec-5Jan), bps 10 year generic yields, CY22, bps
Greece (17) China 4
Korea (16) Japan 39
Indonesia 65
US (16) Thailand 72
UK (12) India 87
Singapore (11) Hong Kong 127
Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Yield to worst (9) Korea 132
Singapore 140
Thailand (5) US 217
China (0) Australia 223
India (0) Germany 245
Hong Kong 0 UK 252
Portugal 279
Japan 1 Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate… 310
Indonesia 5 Greece 317

Source: Bloomberg | As on 5 Jan 2023 Source: Bloomberg | As on 30 Dec 2022

Currencies
Fig 169 – INR depreciated by 1.6% in Dec’22 Fig 170 – INR still overvalued by 3.1% (Nov’22)
USD/INR USD/INR REER Trade weighted (40 currencies) (R)
82 109
82
107
78
78 105
74 103
74

70 101
70
99
66 66
97
62 62 Nov-17 95
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Dec 2022 Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 49 06 January 2023

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Fig 171 – However other EM currencies gained.. Fig 172 – .. as oil prices were lower on an average
USD/INR MSCI EM (R) USD/INR Brent (R) (US$/bbl)
1,800
82 135
1,750 82
1,700 115
78 78
1,650 95
74 74
1,600 75
70 1,550 70
55
1,500
66 66 35
1,450
62 1,400 62 15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22
Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Dec 2022 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Dec 2022

Fig 173 – INR depreciated by 1.6% in Dec’22 Fig 174 – In CY22, INR has depreciated by 10.1%
Change in Dec'22, % CY22 change, in %
JPY 5.3 DXY 8.2
KRW 4.2 BRL 5.6
EUR 2.9 SGD 0.7
CNY 2.8 THB (3.5)
THB 1.9 MSCI EM (4.3)
MSCI EM 1.7 EUR (5.8)
SGD 1.6 KRW (6.1)
PHP 1.5 AUD (6.2)
IDR 1.1 CAD (6.8)
NZD 0.8 NZD (7.0)
AUD 0.4 CNY (7.9)
GBP 0.2 IDR (8.4)
TRY (0.5) PHP (…
CAD (1.0) INR (10.1)
INR (1.6) GBP (10.7)
BRL (1.7) JPY (12.2)
DXY (2.3) TRY(28.9)

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Dec 2022 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Dec 2022

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 50 06 January 2023

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Commodities
Fig 175 – US rig count was stable in Dec’22 Fig 176 – US crude oil inventory rose in Dec’22

US oil Rig count Brent US$ (R) (000/bbl) US crude inventories Brent (R) (US$/bbl)
1,100 25,000 140
1,000 120 20,000
120
900 15,000
100
800 100
10,000
700 80
5,000 80
600
60 0
500 60
400 (5,000)
40 40
300 (10,000)
200 20 (15,000) 20
Jan-18

Jun-18

Jan-19

Jun-19

Jan-20

Jun-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-17

Oct-17

Mar-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21
Dec-16

May-17
Aug-17

Aug-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Feb-21

Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
May-22

Sep-22
Dec-22

Oct-22
Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22
Dec-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Dec-22
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Fig 177 – Oil prices on an average fell to US$ 81/bbl from US$ 91/bbl in Nov’22, DXY Fig 178 – Crude prices fell the most amongst major commodities in Dec’22 compared
fell to 103.52 from 105.95 amidst expectation of moderation in rate hike by Fed to Nov’22

Brent (R) DXY Currency (US$/bbl) Movement of major commodity prices, MoM

115
115 Crude (10.5%)
110 105
105 95 Palladium (4.8%)
100 85
95 75 Agri Index 0.7%
65
90
55 Aluminium 2.6%
85 45
80 35 Gold 3.9%
75 25
Copper 4.0%
Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Mar-21
Sep-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Zinc 6.5%

Source: Bloomberg | DXY Index as on last trading day of the month Source: Bloomberg | Index as on last trading day of the month

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 51 06 January 2023

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Fig 179 – Performance of high frequency indicators

Indicators Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22
Agriculture
Tractor sales (22.5) (27.8) (26.4) (11.6) 38.1 47.7 (10.9) (12.2) (1.0) 18.9 3.6 4.4 -
Two wheeler sales (19.9) (13.4) (10.7) (4.0) 38.1 197.7 20.2 (10.9) 8.5 9.0 51.1 23.6 (11.2)
MNREGA work (HH, MoM) 14.5 (4.2) 0.6 4.1 7.7 32.0 3.9 (34.9) (22.1) 4.3 (7.0) 19.3 14.1
Manufacturing
IIP: General index 1.0 2.0 1.2 2.2 6.7 19.7 12.6 2.2 (0.7) 3.5 (4.0) - -
IIP: Manufacturing 0.6 1.9 0.2 1.4 5.6 20.7 12.9 3.0 (0.5) 2.2 (5.6) - -
IIP: Capital goods (3.0) 1.8 1.3 2.4 12.0 53.3 28.6 5.7 4.3 11.4 (2.3) - -
IIP: Infra & construction goods 2.0 5.9 8.6 6.7 4.0 18.4 9.4 3.8 2.1 7.7 1.0 - -
IIP: Consumer goods (1.9) (4.4) (9.7) (3.1) 7.2 59.1 25.2 2.3 (2.5) (3.2) (15.3) - -
Steel (0.6) 3.8 5.6 4.1 2.5 15.1 3.3 7.5 5.2 5.7 6.5 10.8 -
Cement 14.2 14.1 4.2 9.0 7.4 26.2 19.7 0.7 1.8 12.4 (4.3) 28.6 -
Electricity 2.9 0.9 4.5 6.1 11.8 23.5 16.5 2.3 1.4 11.6 1.2 12.1 -
PMI: Manufacturing 55.5 54.0 54.9 54.0 54.7 54.6 53.9 56.4 56.2 55.1 55.3 55.7 57.8
Services
Services PMI index 55.5 51.5 51.8 53.6 57.9 58.9 59.2 55.5 57.2 54.3 55.1 56.4 58.5
Automobile sales (16.1) (10.7) (9.2) (2.9) 37.3 206.8 27.2 (7.8) 8.3 10.9 47.6 25.7 (5.4)
Passenger vehicle sales (10.9) (10.1) (7.8) (4.9) 26.6 204.3 40.2 (4.7) 6.5 9.7 40.6 21.3 8.1
Vehicle registration (16.7) (12.4) (9.3) (3.6) 38.0 212.8 22.3 (7.7) 8.9 9.0 51.0 20.9 (5.4)
Rail freight traffic 7.2 7.7 6.6 6.7 9.4 14.6 11.3 8.3 7.9 9.1 1.4 5.2 4.5
Port cargo volume (0.3) (2.8) (4.5) 0.8 5.5 8.9 13.5 15.1 8.0 14.9 3.6 2.0 10.4
Credit growth 9.4 7.1 8.1 8.6 10.0 11.4 12.3 13.4 14.3 19.0 15.8 15.6 17.4
Deposit growth 12.1 8.3 8.6 8.9 10.0 8.8 8.6 9.2 9.5 12.5 8.9 9.6 9.4
CIC 7.8 8.0 8.6 9.7 10.1 8.6 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.0 7.9 8.2
Toll collection (in mn) 242.1 231.0 243.6 270.4 265.4 285.4 277.9 265.2 272.0 259.2 283.0 285.6 308.0
Diesel consumption 1.5 (6.4) (0.9) 6.6 7.9 31.7 23.9 8.2 13.0 13.4 5.5 19.2 13.0
GST E-way bill (in mn) 71.6 68.8 69.1 78.2 75.2 73.6 74.5 75.6 78.2 84.0 76.9 80.7 -
External Trade
Merchandise exports 44.3 27.9 34.5 26.4 29.1 20.8 30.2 8.1 10.9 4.8 (12.1) 0.6 -
Merchandise imports 40.5 25.1 37.2 29.0 26.1 57.5 53.4 43.8 41.7 14.9 10.0 5.4 -
Services exports 35.2 24.2 19.1 29.3 25.1 32.2 24.6 20.2 24.3 29.7 24.6 30.7 -
Services imports 29.5 33.8 24.8 25.0 46.1 52.7 45.5 22.3 27.1 28.1 15.9 21.7 -
Source: CEIC, Posoco, Markit, RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 52 06 January 2023

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

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ECONOMICS RESEARCH 53 06 January 2023