CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GEOTHERMAL EXPLORATION

AND HYDROTHERMAL RESEARCH: RECENT ADVANCES UTILIZING

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GEOTHERMAL PLAY FAIRWAY ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN USA

James E. Faulds, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557
John W. Shervais, Department of Geosciences, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322
Philip E. Wannamaker, University of Utah/EGI, Salt Lake City, UT 84108
Corina Forson, Washington Geological Survey, Olympia, WA 98504
Nicole Lautze, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, Honolulu, HI 96822

Although significant progress has been made in characterizing favorable settings for geothermal
activity, barriers remain that inhibit the ability to assess potential resources, prioritize sites, and minimize
risk ahead of expensive drilling. Resolution of these barriers requires multi-disciplinary approaches that
integrate multiple data sets and utilize geostatistical techniques. Major challenges include defining logical
relative rankings of each geological, geochemical, and geophysical parameter and combining multiple
data sets into comprehensive geothermal potential/permeability maps.
Much of the western USA has significant geothermal potential due to 1) widespread high
geothermal gradients, 2) relatively high extensional to transtensional strain rates in the Great Basin region,
3) arc-related magmatism in the Pacific Northwest, and, 4) hot spot magmatism in Hawaii and Idaho.
Although nameplate capacity of existing power plants in the western USA exceeds 3.5 GW and makes
DOI:10.4133/sageep.33-083

the USA the largest producer of geothermal energy in the world, estimates suggest far greater potential.
Major factors that have inhibited more widespread geothermal development include finding sufficient
permeability and the blind (subsurface) nature of the bulk of the geothermal resources.
Permeability is particularly difficult to predict and can vary significantly over distances of only
100-200 m. Adequate permeability can pose a far greater challenge than locating high temperatures.
Identifying sufficient permeability is compounded by the blind nature of many geothermal systems.
Similar to most hydrocarbon deposits, the bulk of geothermal resources in the western USA are blind and
lack surface expressions, such as hot springs and fumaroles. For example, ~39% of the known systems
in the Great Basin region are blind, and estimates suggest that ~75% of all geothermal resources in this
region are blind. Most of the known blind systems were discovered through regional gradient drilling
programs or by accident during the drilling of agricultural wells or mineral exploration holes. The recent
discovery in central Nevada of the robust geothermal system at McGinness Hills, a blind field currently
producing ~165 MW and originally identified with mineral exploration holes, suggests that many such
systems are yet to be discovered. The technical challenge is developing methodologies to locate such
systems economically and with minimal risk.
Considering the enormous but minimally-developed geothermal potential of the western USA and
the probable extent of blind geothermal systems, it is imperative that exploration strategies, utilizing the
most innovative technologies, be developed and tested to both identify the geological and geophysical
signatures of known robust, high enthalpy systems and recognize favorable geothermal play fairways as
proxies for heretofore undiscovered blind systems. Geothermal play fairway analysis has been adapted
from the petroleum industry and is a concept that aims to improve the efficiency and success rate of
geothermal exploration and drilling. It involves integration of geologic, geophysical, and geochemical
parameters indicative of geothermal activity. This concept has been applied to assessing geothermal
resources in several western states, including Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Washington, and Hawaii. The
geothermal play fairway program was funded by the Geothermal Technologies Office of the U.S.
Department of Energy and involved three discrete phases: 1) production of geothermal potential maps
utilizing existing data; 2) analysis of particularly prospective areas in greater detail through acquisition of

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 new data and refinement (as needed) of the initial play fairway methodology; and 3) testing of the
methodology through temperature-gradient drilling in the most highly prospective areas.
Geothermal play fairway methodologies can vary widely between regions depending on the
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geologic setting, quality of exposure, and effectiveness of geophysical techniques under local conditions.
Thus, each project in the western U.S. employed different datasets and algorithms to assess geothermal
potential. Major parameters incorporated into the various methodologies included structural setting, age
and slip rates on Quaternary faults, distribution and age of Quaternary volcanic rocks, regional strain rates,
gravity gradients, magnetic data, magnetotelluric data, slip and dilation tendency analysis of faults,
fluid/gas geochemistry, helium isotope rations, and temperatures. A major challenge for most projects
was appropriate weighting of individual data types to best predict permeability, heat, and overall
geothermal potential. Rigorous statistical methods, utilizing benchmarks where possible, were employed
to determine the hierarchal weights of each parameter. Geophysical data were particularly useful in these
analyses: 1) gravity gradients help to identify subsurface faults/permeability pathways; 2) magnetic data
can indicate subsurface alteration, 3) low resistivity anomalies suggest subsurface fluid flow and/or clay
alteration, and 4) seismic reflection aid interpretation of favorable subsurface structure and stratigraphy.
In addition, geological and geophysical data were synthesized at some sites to generate 3D models of
promising geothermal systems.
These projects produced geothermal potential and favorability maps for parts of Hawaii, Idaho,
Nevada, Utah, and Washington. The subsequent detailed analyses permitted targeting of drill sites in the
final phase of the projects. Initial results are very encouraging. For example, the Nevada play fairway
project produced a relatively detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 of the Great Basin region
DOI:10.4133/sageep.33-083

and culminated in discovery of two blind geothermal systems, with thermal gradient holes to ~150 m
depth yielding temperatures of 95-125oC. In the Snake River Plain of Idaho, significant prospective
geothermal resources were discovered at several sites and are associated with temperatures sufficient to
support electricity production exploitable with existing drilling technology. The Utah project identified
potential heat and fluid connections between probable magmatic activity in the deep crust and high
temperature geothermal systems near the surface, as evidenced by geologic, geophysical, and geochemical
data. Both the Hawaii and Washington projects also produced comprehensive geothermal potential maps
and identified promising geothermal prospects, albeit at relatively deep levels in Hawaii (>1.5 km). Some
lessons learned in these projects include: 1) initially identified sites on a regional scale commonly include
multiple favorable settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins or areas of poor exposure
cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis is critical at
multiple scales, providing a means to select regional prospects as well as vectoring into drilling targets at
individual sites.
Although the play fairway program has been very successful, key challenges face this approach,
including estimating weights of influence for various parameters, incomplete datasets, and a limited
number of training sites (or benchmarks). Compared to the petroleum industry, play fairway analyses for
geothermal systems are in their infancy. Thus, an important question is whether artificial intelligence
/machine learning methods can enhance play fairway analysis and further reduce risks in geothermal
exploration. Considering the success of these projects and rapidly emerging machine-learning technology,
it is timely to merge these efforts into projects that both apply machine-learning techniques to play fairway
analysis and evaluate the relative performance of both technologies.

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