Futures of Local Governance

Strategic Management, Futures Thinking and Anticipatory Leadership

Reginald G. Ugaddan, Ph.D.

Caren Claire L. Avenido
Kent Elmann R. Cadalin
Joshua Rei R. Maximo
Justine B. Perez
UP NCPAG Governance Futures Lab
National College of Public Administration and Governance
University of the Philippines – Diliman
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The UP NCPAG - Governance Futures Lab serves
as a research bank and think-tank on public
administration and governance in the country to
help craft anticipatory, innovative, and strategic
policies and programs.
The Millennium Project
Philippine Node
 Objectives

● Provide NEOs a new perspective on strategic management and promote futures

thinking and the culture of anticipatory leadership in the local government
● Inculcate long-term mindset and intergenerational fairness for agile, anticipatory
and futures-oriented local policies and program through futures thinking and
foresight
● Provide practical application of foresight and futures tools in policy-making
through the Foresight Framework
● Help NEOs especially the Sangguniang Members become anticipatory leaders
and develop their preferred futures of local governance

4
COVID-19 Pandemic

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-
PH&mid=%2Fm%2F05v8c&gl=PH&ceid=PH%3Aen
6
 FUTURISTS METAPHORICAL MENAGERIE

1. Gray rhino, term suggested by Michelle Wucker

refers to highly likely, high impact events,
charging (like a rhino), not just standing quietly
waiting to be noticed.
“Known knowns” - things we know

1. Black elephant named by The Institute for

Collapsonomics refer to “Known unknowns.”
extremely likely and widely predicted events but
are usually ignored by society

1. Black jellyfish - “unknown knowns.

what we think we understand but turns out to
be more complex and uncertain than
expected, with small changes leading to big
impacts. eg. COVID-19

1. Black swans popularised by Nassim Nicholas

Taleb in his 2007 book of the similar name,
refers to unanticipated events with big
impacts, “Unkown unknowns” - things we
don’t know, we don’t know (events totally
outside and way beyond our observations) eg.
Typhoon Katrina

By Robert Hickson, 2020 7

 Strategic Management

Futures Thinking and Foresight

Anticipatory Leadership
Strategic Management
Futures Thinking and Foresight

Anticipatory Leadership
 Strategic Management

● Strategic - originated from

military (military planning)
● 5Ps of Strategy by Mintzberg
et.al
1. Plan
2. Pattern
3. Position
4. Perspective
5. Plot
 Strategic Management

Futures Thinking and Foresight

Anticipatory Leadership
 Futures Thinking and Foresight

● Futures thinking (the theory and methods) and

foresight (the practical application) are a set of
approaches and tools designed
■ to help their users identify emerging issues,
■ negotiate uncertainties,
■ articulate scenarios,
■ develop a common vision of a desired future
through wide participation,
■ introduce innovation, and
■ design robust policies and strategies.
 Futures Thinking and Foresight

FUTURES THINKING AND FORESIGHT AIM TO DESCRIBE CHANGE 20–

50 YEARS INTO THE FUTURE
● Horizon 1 is the present, the site of often-contested strategic decisions.
● Horizon 2 is 5–20 years forward, the site of uncertainty, of disruption.
● Horizon 3 is 20–50 years ahead—the emerging vision.
 Futures Thinking and Foresight

FUTURES THINKING AND FORESIGHT INTEND TO MITIGATE THE

RISKS OF UNCERTAIN FUTURES AND CREATE NEW FINANCIAL
AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES.

● The risk of “short-termism” is managed

by extending the present.

As a Thai foresight expert said at a

futures workshop, “foresight promotes
the game of the long,” seeking
solutions to tomorrow's problems
today.
The School of
International Futures
(SOIF) and Calouste
Gulbenkian Foundation

IS THIS
POLICY OR
PROGRAM
FAIR TO ALL
GENERATION
S NOW AND IN
THE FUTURE?
 Futures Thinking and Foresight

FUTURES THINKING AND FORESIGHT NOT ONLY USE DATA AND

ANALYTICS FROM THE PAST
 Futures Thinking and Foresight

FUTURES THINKING AND FORESIGHT LEADS TO INNOVATIVE

SOLUTIONS AND RESILIENT POLICIES

The process of widening the

horizon (beyond simply
borrowing existing solutions),
exploring emerging issues and
trends, and developing them
into potential scenarios of
alternative futures leads to
innovative solutions and
resilient policies.
 Strategic Management

Futures Thinking and Foresight

Anticipatory Leadership
 Anticipatory Leadership
Foresight - - a process of anticipation

● (HIND)SIGHT - about
understanding the past
● (IN)SIGHT - about
understanding the
present
● (FORE)SIGHT - about
understanding the
future systematically.
 Anticipatory Leadership / Governance

“A SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACH TO ENABLE

GOVERNANCE TO COPE WITH ACCELERATING,
COMPLEX FORMS OF CHANGE.”

“system of systems” that offers ways to manage opportunities and challenges that
are complex with adaptations to existing systems that are presently built for
problems that are “complicated.” FUERTH & FABER (2012)
 Anticipatory Leadership / Governance

Tonurist, P. & Hanson, A. Anticipatory Innovation Governance 2020). OECD Working Papers on Public Governance No. 44.
https://doi.org/10.1787/cce14d80-en
HOW TO WE BECOME
ANTICIPATORY
LEADERS
ESPECIALLY IN
LOCAL GOVT?
HOW TO WE BECOME
ANTICIPATORY
LEADERS?
Evidence

Futures Thinking and Foresight

(trends, tools, and more)
 Foresight and Public Policy

❏ Strategic Foresight

● Deliberate attempt to broaden the “boundaries of perception” and to expand the

awareness of emerging issues and situations.
- Support strategic thinking and decision-making
● Integrates the perspectives, procedures, and tools of both trend research and
futures studies.
- Trend (early detection of political, economic, social, technological conditions → society and
citizens)
- Future studies (anticipate potential developments and generate visions and policy options to
shape the desired future

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 Foresight and Public Policy

❏ Strategic Foresight

● Involves more than detecting and analyzing information, but nonetheless [only]
the starting point of a more comprehensive foresight process.
- Long-term, interdisciplinary, participative, and communicative perspective → build networks
across professional communities, enables broad- based social learning, generates scenario-
based knowledge, and eventually results in visions of (alternative) policies.
● Structured and explicit exploration of multiple futures in order to inform decision-
making.
- Anticipatory governance: systematic embedding and application of strategic foresight
throughout the entire governance architecture, including policy analysis, engagement, and
decision-making.

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 Foresight and Public Policy

❏ How can foresight add value to policy-making?

● Better anticipation: to identify and prepare sooner for new opportunities and
challenges that could emerge in the future
● Policy innovation: to spur new thinking about the best policies to address these
opportunities and challenges
● Future-proofing: to stress-test existing or proposed strategies against a range of
future scenarios

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Three Phases of a Foresight Process

Schultz (2006) and Horton (1999) 29

The Foresight Framework in Question Form

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A Purely Reactive Approach to Strategy

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A Shallow Foresight Process

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A Shallow/Narrow Foresight Process

33
Foresight Framework (“Inspired by Voroscope”)

Perante-Calina, Domingo,
Brillantes, Ugaddan, &
Flores (2020)
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 Forecast Planning vs. Scenario Planning

Extrapolating from recent past.

Envisioning multiple futures.
Predictions do not always concern the future.

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 Scenario Planning

○ Scenario planning is useful in creating an organizational culture of long term

thinking and habitual questioning of assumptions and mental models
■ Final product or deliverable is a scenario report.
■ The most important outcome is that the organization has been able to reexamine
conventional wisdom and formulate strategies to meet potential new challenges and
opportunities.

○ Part of the value of the scenario planning process is that it requires a diverse
range of individuals, who may not be directly related to a specific scenario
topic.
■ Process of dialogue and cross-fertilization of ideas
■ Identifying driving forces - through which trends, challenges, and changes from within and
from without public organizations.

36
Global and Local Trends
and Disruptions

1
COVID-19 Pandemic

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-
PH&mid=%2Fm%2F05v8c&gl=PH&ceid=PH%3Aen
38
 Trends and Disruptions caused by Pandemic

❏ Temporary disruptions
Trends that got a weakening impact by the pandemic mainly include sector
specific phenomena (disrupted by lockdown measures). Got weak but will
more or less recover
● Tourism and sharing economy
- Lockdowns, borders around the world closed down

❏ Trends that got a short-term boost

Trends in this trajectory are mainly related to our shifting priorities in a time
of crisis
● Misinformation, data consumption, isolation economy, [weak signals] exercise
prescriptions

Source: Futures Platform (2022) 39

 Trends and Disruptions caused by Pandemic

❏ Trend that got a long-term boost

The extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic have packed many years of
change into one year.
● Megatrend of digitalization
○ Virtual offices and classrooms
○ Telepresence
○ Telemedicine
○ Digital payments
● Automated services
● Robotization

Source: Futures Platform (2022) 40

Causal Layered Analysis on Philippine Higher Education
Causal Layered Analysis:
Higher Education

ADB, 2020 41
Causal Layered Analysis on Philippine K-12

Causal Layered
Analysis: K-12

ADB, 2020 42
Source: Futures Platform
43 (2022)
 Local Trends and Disruptions

❏ Mandanas-Garcia Ruling
The Mandanas-Garcia ruling is projected to increase the IRA by 27.61%.
● Complete devolution by 2024
○ Transfer or devolution of the delivery of basic services to LGUs
○ Devolution Transition Plan

“Devolution is considered a good governance practice as it

promises the possibilities of participation, cooperation,
efficiency, inclusivity, transparency, and accountability”
(Baconguis, 2022).

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 Local Trends and Disruptions

❏ A Vulnerable Country
Disaster and Climate Change Risks in the Philippines
⚫ The Philippines ranks number 3 among countries in
the world terms of disaster risk (World Risk Report
2016) and number 4 among countries most affected by
long-term climate risk based on 20 year-data analyzed
by the German Watch (2016).

⚫ Between 1900 and 2014, a total of 565 natural disasters

were reported in the Philippines, with storms, floods,
and earthquakes as the three most frequent.

⚫ The combined impact of all disasters that visited the

country during that period resulted in 69,777 deaths,
187 million people affected, and 23 billion US dollars in
total economic damages (GFDRR 2016)
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 Work/Technology 2050

2050 Scenario 2: Political/Economic Turmoil –

Future Despair.

Governments did not anticipate the impacts of

artificial general intelligence and had no strategies
in place as unemployment exploded in the 2030s
leaving the world of 2050 in political turmoil.

Social polarism and political grid-lock in many

forms have grown.

Global order has deteriorated into a combination of

nation-states, mega-corporations, local militias,
terrorism, and organized crime.

Future Work/Technology 2050 – The Millennium Project (millennium-project.org)

Local Trends and Disruptions
⚫ Philippines also sits along the Pacific Ring of
Fire, making it susceptible to frequent
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

⚫ At least 60 percent of the total land area of the

country is exposed to multiple hazards, and 74
percent of the population is vulnerable to the
impact of extreme weather events.

⚫ About 60 percent of local governments are

located along the coast, thus making them
vulnerable to long-term impacts of climate
change such as sea level rise and flooding
(GFDRR 2016).

⚫ The annual average loss of the country due to

disasters was estimated to be US$7,893 million,
representing almost 69 percent of annual social
expenditures.

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 Local Trends and Disruptions

❏ Short-termism in Local Government Administration

Continuity of programs and projects

Source: https://www.hofstede-insights.com/ 48
Local Trends and Disruptions

49
Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Technology

● AI
● Society 5.0
● Virtual government
● Human Resources
Transformation
○ Smart work system -
fostering right skills
in performing
(complex) tasks to
fit the future
● Augmented and Virtual
Reality
● 5G Network
● State of the Future Index

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 AI Readiness Index 2020

Philippines

Index Score -
47.20/100

Rank - 71/172
Regional Rank - 11/16

Responsible Use
Score: --/100

Responsible Use
Rank: --/34

Government AI Readiness Index 2020/21 — Oxford Insights

 Work/Technology 2050
2050 Scenario 1: It’s Complicated – A Mixed Bag.

A business-as-usual trend projection of the

increasing acceleration of change with both
intelligence and stupidity characterized decision-
making.

Irregular adoption of advance technology; high

unemployment where governments did not create
long-range strategies, and mixed success on the use
of universal basic income.

Giant corporation’s powers have often grown beyond

government control, in this government-corporate,
virtual-3D, multi-polar world of 2050.

Future Work/Technology 2050 – The Millennium Project (millennium-project.org)

 Work/Technology 2050

Scenario 3: If Humans Were Free – the Self-

Actualization Economy.

Governments did anticipate the impacts of

artificial general intelligence, conducted extensive
research on how to phase in universal basic
income systems, and promoted self-employment.

Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to

foster cultural change from an employment
culture to a self-actualization economy.

Future Work/Technology 2050 – The Millennium Project (millennium-project.org)

Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Education

● Digital divide
● Multiversity
● Schools without teachers
● Digital transformation
● Intergenerational fairness
● University - marketplace of
ideas
● Remote work and education
● Cyber schools
● Blended learning
● School as a mega
corporation
● Lifelong learning

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Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Education

● Cyber school refers to teaching

delivered entirely remotely, as
opposed to models that combine
traditional classroom learning and
e-learning (hybrid or blended
learning).
● Current and future teachers need
more training to adopt
technological tools and a new
mentoring role in teaching.
● Collaboration between companies,
governments, researchers and
teaching staffs

Source: https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/exit-covid-19-pandemic-what-has-changed-what-will-stay-same
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 Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Work

● Remote work and education

● e-Work visas
● Online stores
● Human augmentation
● Degrowth society*
● Decline of unions
● Unbundling of works
● Internet of senses
● Platform economy
● Platform governance
● Efficient use of space
● 5G Network

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 Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Work

● Gig economy - temporary and part-

time jobs as well as freelance or
project-based contracts are a
common and normal part of the
job market.
● Telepresence means creating a
feeling of presence through various
technologies, even though the
person is not physically present.
● People are increasingly rarely
needed on location to fix
malfunctioning or broken
equipment (e.g., IoT, Augmented
Reality)

Source: https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/exit-covid-19-pandemic-what-has-changed-what-will-stay-same
57
Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Work

https://nwpc.dole.gov.ph/publications/gig-economy/
58
Trends and Manifested Problems/Opportunities on Work

https://nwpc.dole.gov.ph/publications/gig-economy/
59
 Long Term Perspective for City Design

Current 30 years later 100 years later

• Current Urban City Planning • Urbanization • Population Reduction

• Political and Corporate Interests • Digital Technology • Sea-Level Increase and
• Future Technology Climate Change
• Active Response to
Future Disasters

• Yeong Yun-Gi. 2018. Smart City and Governance. Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University, Korea

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Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

❏ Make cities and human

settlements inclusive, safe,
resilient and sustainable

● There is a strong link between the

quality of life in cities and how
cities draw on and manage the
natural resources available to them.

● The trends trajectory towards

urbanization has accompanied
increased pressure on the
environment and accelerated
demand for basic services,
infrastructure, jobs, land, and
affordable housing, particularly for
the nearly 1 billion urban poor who
live in informal settlements.

Photo by: UN environment programme

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Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
 Ambisyon Natin 2040

The Life of All Filipinos in 2040:

Matatag, Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay

By 2040, Filipinos enjoy a strongly rooted, comfortable, and secure life.
In 2040, we will all enjoy a stable and comfortable lifestyle, secure in the knowledge that we have enough for our
daily needs and unexpected expenses, that we can plan and prepare for our own and our children’s future. Our
family lives together in a place of our own, and we have the freedom to go where we desire, protected and enabled
by a clean, efficient, and fair government.
Shift to Smart and Sustainable Cities

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 Smart Governance Capacity

• Policy Domain
• Trust
• Political and Institutional Environment
• Internet Reach and Use
• Socio-Spatial Characteristics

Governmental Organization

Smart Governance Capacity

Citizen Participation Use of Technology

66
 Factors for SSC Capacity and Governance Capacity

Future (Smart) City Capacity Citizen Business Government

*
ICT Technology

Legal & Management

Research Capacity

Governance Capacity
Industry & Economy

Future Capacity

Disaster & Security

권기헌. 2018. Global smart city evaluation & consulting. 성균관대학교 국정전문대학
원
권기헌. 2018. 스마트시티 성숙도 모델. 성균관대학교 국정전문대학원 67
Contextual Environment Challenges

Indirect Environment
(Contextual Environment)

Politics
Economy Legislation
Technology Pandemic Societal Culture

Demographics Natural Disasters

Direct Environment
(Transactional Environment)

Leaders Culture
Organization
Process Structure

People
 Political-Will to Transform?

Dubai

• Public value or developer’s interest

• Public sector agility?
• Long-term perspective and design?

Future (Smart) City Capacity +

Governance Capacity

69
 Public Value-Driven Futures

Unclear
required
Most of skills,
tomorrow’s resources,
opportunities institutions,
and threats are and policies to
unknown cope with
future
opportunities
and threats

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Public Value & Intergenerational Fairness Driven Policy-Making

“What is the right thing to do?” As important as it may be to “do

things right,” it is essential to “do right things” (Bowman & West,
2018).
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 Public Value, Policy Dilemma, and Foresight

Governance: Value for Society Assess environments

systematically and to
Citizen as “citizen” and voter identify the relevant
• Dilemma: how to balance openness and upcoming issues.
transparency, and the interests of different
stakeholders
Public Value
Effectiveness: value for customer
Citizen as services consumer
& Intergenerational Fairness
• Dilemma: governments cannot choose their
’customers’

Efficiency: value for Think ahead

Government strategically in order to
Citizen as tax-payer reduce ‘‘surprises’’.
• Dilemma: how to
provide ’more for less’

Source: adapted from Millard & Horlings (2008 72

 Policy Directions

❑ Building anticipatory capacity within the state and local public service
➔ Strategic foresight is a multifaceted and flexible concept that can be adapted to a
government’s particular needs and a country’s political and cultural characteristics.
➔ Overcoming “firefighting mentality” in the local government
➔ Four important factors for foresight to contribute effectively to local policy-making:
(1) Interoperable working environment
(2) Multi-stakeholder foresight approach
(3) Analytical rigor (based on right method and right data)
(4) Leadership support (e.g., political, admin/career leadership, senior policy-makers)

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WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF
LOCAL GOVERNANCE
THAT YOU
WANT?
in 10,20,30 years
 HIRAYA MANAWARI!
MAY YOU REACH YOUR DREAMS, HOPES, AND ASPIRATIONS

Facebook Page: facebook.com/ncpagGFL Email us at ncpag.gfl.upd@up.edu.ph

 References

● Asian Development Bank, Futures thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why foresight matters for
policy-makers, ADB (April 2020).

● A. Horton, A simple guide to successful foresight, Foresight 1 (1) (1999) 5–9.

● B. Habegger, Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK,
Singapore, and the Netherlands, Futures 42 (1) (2010) 49-58.

● J. Voros, A generic foresight process framework, Foresight 5 (3) (2003) 10–21.

● W.L. Schultz, The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an
evidence-based policy context, Foresight 8 (4) (2006) 3–12.

● Bowman, J. S., & West, J. P. (2018). Public service ethics: Individual and institutional responsibilities.
Routledge.

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