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6.00%
4.00%
2.97%
3.51%
2.00%
0.00%
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
-0.71%
-2.00%
-2.19%
-4.00%
-3.49%
-6.00% -5.32%
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia Source: JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data
The impact of government efforts in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic have been apparent in the continuous improvement in
Indonesian economic growth. A drop in growth in 3Q21 was due to the Covid-19 Delta variant, which delivered the hardest
hit so far, during the period from end May to end August.
Share of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Share of people only partly vaccinated against Covid-19 % First Dose % Full Dose
Indonesia
Country 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E
7.00
6.00 Malaysia 4.41 5.56 5.09 4.74 (3.89) 3.64 5.68 6.77 5.45 4.68
5.00
Philippines 7.18 7 6.41 6.05 (5.67) 1.69 7.69 8.1 6.73 6.13
4.00
Singapore 2.73 4.51 4.28 1.41 (4.45) 5.05 4.05 3.46 3.07 3.03
3.00
2.00 Thailand 3.36 4.02 4.24 2.92 (4.82) 0.64 5.06 6.49 4.54 3.22
1.00
Vietnam 6.68 6.95 7.08 7.02 2.91 6.64 7.79 7.55 6.39 5.99
-
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 E
2022 E
2023 E
2024 E
2025 E
(1.00) Myanmar 6.41 5.75 6.41 6.5 2.92 (9.87) 5.77 6.19 8.64 7.54
(2.00)
Indonesia 5.03 5.07 5.17 5.02 (2.01) 3.34 6.86 6.32 5.67 5.62
(3.00)
Identify partnership Buy strategic land sites for Find partner opportunities with
opportunities with capital future development at experienced township
partners to monetize significant attractive prices. developers building largely self-
parts of holdings and have liquidating landed products and
capex funds for necessary limited supporting retail and
upgrades, working capital, etc. commercial uses.
• Construction activity slowed down during pandemic, highlighted by • Occupancy continued to drop during pandemic.
delay in completion. • The absorption level in the CBD was a historic low in 2021, i.e. below
• Today, quite a few developer are anticipating the right momentum 80%, down 4% compared to before pandemic.
before reactivating new construction. • Similar trend occurred in outside the CBD, a drop of 5% in occupancy
• Future buildings that are currently under-planning are likely to since 2019.
experience delay in completion.
• We expect to see supply-demand equilibrium starting in 2024 onward.
• Asking base rent in the CBD now is IDR249,537, but we expect to see a • Most landlords and units owners are still offering old price.
further drop by the end of 2021 or 12% decrease compared to 2019. • But we hardly record any strata-title transaction activity during the
• The operation of future Premium-class buildings will lift the overall pandemic.
asking rental tariff in the CBD, however transacted rent will likely to see
pressure from tenants given a huge vacant space in the market. • The addition of new strata-title building will be limited.
• Rent in the CBD will only grow below 2% annually, particularly in 2022 • Price will only grow moderately.
onward.
• The overall rent in outside the CBD similarly declined by 4% during the
pandemic.
• The limited future supply over 2023 – 2024 will help stimulate rent to
increase moderately going forward.
They have been in They have to move They wish to expand They have decided to
the same building for owing to the their business with consolidate their
many years. situation with their caution. operations.
current building; for
example: the building
is under a Build
Operate Transfer
arrangement or is to
be demolished.
Landlords are advised to show flexibility and be Landlords should focus more on achieving high
accommodative to keep tenants wanting to extend their occupancy rates like 70-80%.
leases, as well as being more flexible to secure new leases.
Flexibility may be offered by providing incentives such as: Landlords should allocate some areas for agile
• Rent free (“face rents” and “net effective” rents) working spaces in their building. Flexible workplace
strategy will become a requirement for many
• Free parking companies.
• Option to surrender
• Early termination option
• Fit-out allowance to be amortised over the lease term
• Option to renew with rental cap
Landlords should support sustainability concept by
• Sub-lease and assignment applying a green building certification.
• Holdover rights
Jakarta Cumulative Supply & Occupancy Greater Area Cumulative Supply & Occupancy
83.6% 83.5%
4,000,000 85.0% 4,000,000 81.9% 82.5% 85.0%
79.8% 82.5% 82.5%
78.5%
3,000,000 77.4% 80.0% 3,000,000 80.0%
76.2%
74.9% 77.5% 74.5% 75.0% 77.5%
2,000,000 72.1% 72.9% 75.0% 2,000,000 72.6% 75.0%
71.1% 71.1% 71.3%
72.5% 69.3% 72.5%
1,000,000 70.0% 1,000,000 70.0%
67.5% 67.5%
0 65.0% 0 65.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Occupied Spaces Vacant Spaces Occupancy Occupied Spaces Vacant Spaces Occupancy
• At the end of 2021, Pondok Indah Mall 3 and AEON Mall Tanjung Barat.
Annual Supply
200,000
• We anticipate 4 malls to operate within 2022-2025, adding around
200,000 sq m. 150,000
• Most of upcoming shopping centres in greater area of Jakarta are in the 100,000
construction stage.
• The addition of new mall will push occupancy downward, particularly 50,000
• Rent adjustment in 2021 was mainly triggered by the operation of • Landlords generally maintain service charge tariff, but the overall
Pondok Indah Mall 3 with rental tariff above market average. adjustment is mainly due to the influx of newly operating Pondok
• Mall visitors has gradually shown an upward trend despite still lower Indah Mall 3.
than in the normal time. • Rent and service adjustment are likely to increase moderately in
2022 provided that economic projection achieves the target.
Most rents and service Landlords are still looking Retailers are getting more In the office sector, we
charges have returned to for replacement tenants confident and are looking still see retailers closing
normal levels, except for in a soft market where to expand again wanting outlets, and it is still
some segments such as retailers know they can to reap the benefits of the difficult for developers to
entertainment and get more favourable soft market. But they find new tenants. F&B
cinemas. rental terms. continue to be very retailers, especially, are
selective in terms of the still very cautious because
locations they take up. of the pandemic.
Jababeka
800 Suryacipta
600 Kawasan Industri Cikembar - Sukabumi
Modern Cikande
400
Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon
200 Bekasi Fajar
0 Griya Idola
Kota Bukit Indah (Besland Pertiwi)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 YTD
Sentul Industrial Estate
KIIC
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Q3 2021
22.13%
Traditional vs. Automation Express vs. Fulfillment Target areas will have high
• Increased demand for • Increased demand for populations and be close to
warehouse automation fulfilment centres Jakarta: areas such as the
(shuttle racking) south of Jakarta, west of
• Changes as C to C becomes Jakarta, Tangerang and Bekasi.
• In the longer-term, B to C
automation will keep
logistic costs stable
5,000
150,000 4,000
3,000
100,000
2,000
50,000
1,000
- 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
• No new project was introduced in 2022. • In 2018 - 2021, additional new apartment for lease was 332 units per
• We anticipate 3,383 new apartment units being completed in 2021. annum.
• Leased and serviced apartment will grow 4.1% CAGR along 2022 –
• Total units projected to close 2021 will be 221,117 unit.
2025.
• In 2022 - 2025 annual supply is 7,195 units, lower that in 2014 – 2021 of
9,540 units per annum.
20%
60%
10%
50% 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F 2022 F 2023 F 2024 F 2025 F 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
• We are anticipating for a better sales result by the end of 2021. This will • Annual occupancy dropped 10-15% in 2020 – 2021 mainly due to
help lift the absorption rate modestly compared to 2020. Covid-19.
• The average take-up rate in 2022- 2025 will be 88 - 89%. • We are quite positive to envisage upcoming years, given the current
vaccination rate which will result in the normal human mobility.
39.39 420,911
37.88
40 36.42 420,000
34.80 35.00 35.02 413,818
33.00 33.80 410,848
35 412,658
410,000
30
404,566
25 400,000
397,985 396,634
392,700
20 390,000
15
380,000 381,378
10
5 370,000
0 360,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F 2022 F 2023 F 2024 F 2025 F 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
• Apartment price remains at IDR35 million/sq m. • Annual rents was down 4% in 2020 - 2021 as a result of the drop in
• In 2022-2025 we anticipate 4% increase per annum. occupancy.
• But we anticipate a 2.5% CAGR rental increase in 2022 – 2025 mainly
underpinned by sound economic performance and more conducive
situation when Covid-19 can be curbed.
As the market is still Tenants need to have Tenants need to have Even with its tenant
dynamic, tenants still have smart negotiations with knowledge of the market, market, there are few
more options. owners and use the since not everything that exceptions for high-
flexibility as an occurs in the market is demand residential. Some
opportunity. applicable to all expatriate of these residences have
housing owners. begun to stabilise in
terms of price and
occupancy levels.
18,000
100 16,000
14,000
80
12,000
60 10,000
8,000
40
6,000
4,000
20
2,000
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Hotel supply addition is now growing more moderate. This will be positive for the overall hotel market in the future.
USD 70.0
60.0%
USD 60.0
50.0%
USD 50.0
40.0%
USD 40.0
30.0%
USD 30.0
20.0%
USD 20.0
USD - 0.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
80.0%
USD 120.0
70.0%
USD 100.0
60.0%
30.0%
USD 40.0
20.0%
USD 20.0
10.0%
USD - 0.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
MICE will be the main business of many hotels in Jakarta, whilst support • The Incremental
areas (BODETABEK) will also share the same market segment. However, performance in
support areas will also share the leisure and StayCation sectors better Occupancy and ADR of
outside Jakarta. the total area
• The incremental of
average customer
The government segment will provide occupancy on weekdays and other spending in many
business days, as well as other market sources. businesses is increasing,
even though it is unlikely
to be better than the 2018
performance
New customer habits will be faced by all hospitality industries in many
area, including Jakarta and in other hospitality businesses, such as
accommodation, restaurants, entertainment and others.
Incremental
Occupancy and
ADR throughout
the Bali Area.
As per government Bali and Jakarta will host Revenge Tourism will also
planning, Indonesia is some of these events and create a very positive
going to host several their associated areas will back-up to the number of
International MICE events get benefits of visitors and visitors to Bali.
in 2022 to help boost related activities. The G20
tourism and business in Meeting is one of the
South East Asia. events, with pre-events
starting in March 2022.
Mike D. Broomell
Managing Director