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46
GROW sales 2019 2020 25%
GroW sales 2020 2023 5%
cost of sales 90%
cost of sales 2 86%
DEP 2.00
dep years 5
Cash 3.50
Debt 11.12
Tax 30%
Dividend 2021 10%
debt maturity 5 years
interest rate 4%
short therm debt 2019 2.71
WC increase 7%
2019 2020 2021 2022
Capital Expenditure 0.8 1 1.4 1.6
1 2 3 4
2019 2020 2021 2022
Net sales 26.83 33.53 35.21 36.97
Costs 24.14 30.18 30.28 31.79
EBITDA 2.68 3.35 4.93 5.18
Depreciation 2.16 2.36 2.64 2.96
EBIT 0.52 0.99 2.29 2.22
Interest expense 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.19
EBT 0.08 0.63 2.01 2.03
Taxes 0.02 0.19 0.60 0.61
Net Income 0.05 0.44 1.41 1.42
prendre l'année d'avant Dividends 0 0 0.04 0.14
Retained earnings 0.05 0.44 1.36 1.28
2.40
2.50
0.10
0.00 debt-annuity+interest
2.40 annuity-interest
2023
1.48
3.22 +
4.70
4.70
0.13
1.3
2.40 short term debt+ long term debt
0.141897
3.97
-0.56
0.73
0.17
Sales 2018 21.46
GROW sales 2019 2020 25%
GroW sales 2020 2023 5%
cost of sales 90%
cost of sales 2 86%
DEP 2.00
dep years 5
Cash 3.50
Debt 11.12
Tax 30%
Dividend 2021 10%
debt maturity 5 years
interest rate 4%
short therm debt 2019 2.71
WC increase 7%
CHAPTER 4
2019 2020 2021
Capital Expenditure 0.8 1 1.4
1 2 3
2019 2020 2021
Net sales 26.83 33.53 35.21
Costs 24.14 30.18 30.28
EBITDA 2.68 3.35 4.93
Depreciation 2.16 2.36 2.64
EBIT 0.52 0.99 2.29
Interest expense 0.44 0.36 0.28
EBT 0.08 0.63 2.01
Taxes 0.02 0.19 0.60
Net Income 0.05 0.44 1.41
Dividends 0 0 0.04
Retained earnings 0.05 0.44 1.36
notes 2%
interest rate notes 2%
FCFF rate 2.50%
cash 3.5
debt 15.43
tax rate 30%
cost of debt 4%
cost of equity 11.70%
debt/equity 55%
2022
1.6
4
2022
36.97
31.79
5.18
2.96
2.22
0.19
2.03
0.61
1.42
0.14
1.28
2.96
1.6
2.00
0.96
0.16
0.2
0.28
0.32
4.71
2.50
0.19
2.40
2.31
market value of debt
MARKET VALUE OF EQUITY
TOTAL CAPITLAISATION
weight of equity
weight of debt
Cost of equity
cost of debt
wacc
Terminal value
2023
1.3
5
2023
38.82
33.38
5.43
3.22
2.21
0.10
2.12
0.64
1.48
0.14
1.34
3.22
1.3
2.00
1.22
0.16
0.2
0.28
0.32
0.26
2.40
2.50
0.10
0.00
2.40
1600000000 WACC=(Cost of equity * % equity) +
42395770585.7
43995770585.7
0.963632867916625
0.0363671320833746
11.70%
4%
11.376%
38.5762404231214
Terminal value = FCFF in the last year x (1 + long-term growth rate) / (discount rate - long-term growth rate)
Sources and Uses of Cash
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sources:
Net Income 0.05 0.44 1.41 1.42 1.48
Depreciation 2.16 2.36 2.64 2.96 3.22
Operating Cash flow 2.21 2.80 4.05 4.38 4.70
Borrowing
New Stock issue
Total sources 2.21 2.80 4.05 4.38 4.70
Uses:
△ Working Capital 0.38 0.47 0.12 0.12 0.13
Capital Expenditure 0.8 1 1.4 1.6 1.3
Repayment of debt 4.76 2.14 2.22 2.31 2.40
Dividends 0 0 0.044131 0.140828 0.141897
Total uses 5.94 3.60 3.78 4.17 3.97
Financing requirements
1 2 3 4 5
EBIT(1-T) 0.37 0.70 1.60 1.55 1.55
(+)Depre 2.16 2.36 2.64 2.96 3.22
(-)Change in WC 0.38 0.47 0.12 0.12 0.13
(-)CapEx 0.80 1.00 1.40 1.60 1.30
FCFF 1.35 1.59 2.73 2.79 3.34
PV 1.21 1.28 1.97 1.81 24.46 pv= FCFF/(1+WACC)^n
EV 30.73
Equity value 21.16
Share price 119.6833
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sources:
Net Income 0.05 0.44 1.41 1.42 1.48
Depreciation 2.16 2.36 2.64 2.96 3.22
Operating Cash flow 2.21 2.80 4.05 4.38 4.70
Borrowing 1.60
New Stock issue 0.753395
Total sources 4.57 2.80 4.05 4.38 4.70
(1+WACC)^n
Sales 2015 57.3
grow sale 2016-2019 4%
Grow sale 2019 up 2%
Cost of sales 2016 88%
COSt of sales 2016 UP 84%
DEP 3.3
Cash 3.9
Debt 17.8
Tax rate 30%
Payout ratio 17.60%
payout ratio in 2016 0.31
repayement of debt 17.8
debt maturity Years 5
interest rate 6.50%
ebitda 2015 6.7
EBIT 2015 3.8
Interest expense 2015 1.3
2016 2017
Capital Expenditure 8 4
1 2 3 4
2016 2017 2018 2019
EBIT (1-tax rate) 2.14 3.79 3.86 3.58
(+) depreciation 4.10 4.50 4.80 5.40
(-) Change WC 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.04
(-) CAPEX 8 4 3 6
Cash 3.90
Debt 19.50
WACC 9.09%
Debt/Equity ratio 80%
growth rate 1.50%
Common shares 1.79478534
-1.68 3.55 4.30 2.08
EV 31
P 8.39
NRSt 7
NRAt 10
PSt 2.2
Pat = P 4.243
Prt 0.841235294118
Pat+1 3.401764705882
Discount 0.247293792149
1 2 3 4
2016 2017 2018 2019
Net sales 59.59 61.98 64.45 67.03
Costs 52.44 52.06 54.14 56.31
EBITDA 7.15 9.92 10.31 10.73
Depreciation 4.10 4.5 4.8 5.4
EBIT 3.05 5.42 5.51 5.33
Interest expenses 1.16 0.95 0.74 0.51
EBT 1.89 4.46 4.78 4.82
Taxes 0.57 1.34 1.43 1.45
Net Income 1.33 3.12 3.34 3.37
Dividends 0.31 0.23 0.55 0.59
Retained earnings 1.02 2.89 2.79 2.78
USES
△ Working capital 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.04
Capital expenditure 8 4 3 6
Repayment of debt 3.13 3.33 3.55 3.78
Dividends 0.31 0.23 0.55 0.59
Total uses 11.51 7.63 7.17 10.40
FINANCING REQUIREMENTS
Cash at start of period 3.90 0.60 0.59 1.56
(+) Net cash inflow -3.30 -0.01 0.97 -1.63
Cash at end of period 0.598 0.587 1.560 -0.071
P 5.83
1 2 3 4 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net sales 59.59 61.98 64.45 65.74 68.37
Costs 52.44 52.06 54.14 55.22 57.43
EBITDA 7.15 9.92 10.31 10.52 10.94
Depreciation 4.10 4.50 4.80 5.40 6.10
EBIT 3.05 5.42 5.51 5.12 4.84
Interest expense 1.16 0.95 0.74 0.51 0.26
EBT 1.89 4.46 4.78 4.61 4.58
Taxes 0.57 1.34 1.43 1.38 1.37
Net Income 1.33 3.12 3.34 3.23 3.20
Dividends 0.31 0.23 0.55 0.59 0.57
Retained earnings 1.02 2.89 2.79 2.64 2.64
△ Net sales
not too good because it's higher than the market
lower than the sector
higher of the sector
decrease because less debt (repayment), equity increase thank to the retained earning
quite good, higher than the sector
higher than the sector, not higher than 1 but acceptable when we look to the sector
5
2020
3.39
6.10
0.08
7
2.41
1.56
5
2020 2016 New 2016
68.37 Cash 3.9
57.43 Accounts Receivable 3.7
10.94 Inventory 12.4
6.1 Other Current Assets 0.6
4.84 Current Assets 20.60
0.26 Gross PP&E 56.9
4.58 Accum. Dep. 23.9
1.37 Other Fixed Assets 14.1
3.20 Total Assets 67.70
0.59
2.61 Accounts Payable 8.3
Other Current Liabilities 5.2
Short-term debt 3.13
Current Liabilities 16.63
6.10 Long-term debt 14.67
7 Other non-current liabiliti 14.8
3.30 Common stock 8.8
2.8 Retained Earnings 12.8
0.8 Total Liabilities / OE 67.70
0.4
0.3 2016 New 2016
0.6 Indebtedness ratio 2.07
0.7 Debt service ratio 3.01
Capital gearing 0.82
Net debt equity ratio 0.64
4.02 Current ratio 1.24
4.28 Liquidity ratio 0.49
0.26
0.00
2020
3.20
6.10
9.30
0.00
0.00
9.30
0.08
7
4.02
0.59
11.69
-0.07
-2.39
-2.460
Sources and Uses of Cash
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources:
Net Income 1.33 3.12 3.34 3.23 3.20
Depreciation 4.10 4.50 4.80 5.40 6.10
Operating Cash flow 5.43 7.62 8.14 8.63 9.30
Borrowing
New Stock issue
Total sources 5.43 7.62 8.14 8.63 9.30
Uses:
△ Working Capital 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.08
Capital Expenditure 8 4 3 6 7
Repayment of debt 3.13 3.33 3.55 3.78 4.02
Dividends 0.31 0.23 0.55 0.59 0.57
Total uses 11.51 7.63 7.17 10.40 11.67
Financing requirements
Debt
Annuity
Interest
Final Debt
Repayments
2017
Debt
Interest
Repayments
1 2 3 4 5 Sources and Uses of Cash
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017
24.02 24.50 24.99 25.49 26.00 Sources:
16.81 17.15 17.49 17.84 18.20 Net Income 4.43
7.21 7.35 7.50 7.65 7.80 Depreciation 0.58
0.58 0.72 0.88 0.98 1.06 Operating Cash flow 5.01
6.63 6.63 6.62 6.67 6.74 Borrowing
0.30 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.06 New Stock issue
6.33 6.39 6.43 6.54 6.68 Total sources 5.01
1.90 1.92 1.93 1.96 2.00
4.43 4.47 4.50 4.58 4.67 Uses:
2.23 2.524194 2.548613 2.566771 2.610626 △ Working Capital -0.06
2.20 1.95 1.95 2.01 2.06 Capital Expenditure 0.6
Repayment of debt 2.28
0.58 0.72 0.88 0.98 1.06 Dividends 2.23
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 Total uses 5.05
0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 △ Working Capital = △AR + △Inventories + △Other CA - △AP
0.12 0.26 0.42 0.52 0.6 Financing requirements
0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Cash at start 24.64
0.16 0.16 0.16 + Net cash inflow -0.05
0.1 0.1 = Cash at end of period 24.59
0.08
ained earning)
ck+ retained earnings)
Value Libor Floating NoSenior Not i Maturity dMaturity (years)
Debt 1 0.75 1.263% 0.36% - 1.623% 2019 2
Debt 2 0.50 1.263% 0.45% - 1.713% 2020 3
Debt 3 0.50 1.263% 0.73% - 1.993% 2023 6
Debt 4 1.25 - - 1.85% 1.85% 2019 2
Debt 5 1.50 - - 2.10% 2.10% 2020 3
Debt 6 1.50 - - 2.60% 2.60% 2023 6
Debt 7 1.50 - - 2.90% 2.90% 2024 7
Debt 8 2.00 - - 3.25% 3.25% 2027 10
Debt 9 1.50 - - 4.30% 4.30% 2047 30
11.00 1.54% 22.329%
Sales 2016 23.55
GROW 2%
Cost of sales 70% SALES Net sales
DEP 0.46 Costs
Acc recuivable 2.22 9% EBITDA
Inventory 1.56 7% Depreciation
current assets 0.56 2.50% EBIT
Acc payable 1.86 8% Interest expense
Other current liablities 5.54 23% EBT
Taxes
dep 5 years Net Income
prendre l'année d'avant Dividends
Retained earnings
Cash 24.64
Debt 12 Total Depreciation
tax 30% Capital Expenditure
Dividend 2.23 Depreciation
payout ratio 57% Dep of CAPEX
debt maturity 5 years
interest rate 2.50%
COMMONSTOCK 0.84
Retained earnings 34.94 2016
Debt
Annuity
Interest
Final Debt
Repayments
2017
Debt
Interest
Repayments
1 2 3 4 5 Sources and Uses of Cash
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017
24.02 24.50 24.99 25.49 26.00 Sources:
16.81 17.15 17.49 17.84 18.20 Net Income 4.43
7.21 7.35 7.50 7.65 7.80 Depreciation 0.58
0.58 0.72 0.88 0.98 1.06 Operating Cash flow 5.01
6.63 6.63 6.62 6.67 6.74 Borrowing
0.30 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.06 New Stock issue
6.33 6.39 6.43 6.54 6.68 Total sources 5.01
1.90 1.92 1.93 1.96 2.00
4.43 4.47 4.50 4.58 4.67 Uses:
2.23 2.524194 2.548613 2.566771 2.610626 △ Working Capital -0.06
2.20 1.95 1.95 2.01 2.06 Capital Expenditure 0.6
Repayment of debt 2.28
0.58 0.72 0.88 0.98 1.06 Dividends 2.23
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 Total uses 5.05
0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 △ Working Capital = △AR + △Inventories + △Other CA - △AP
0.12 0.26 0.42 0.52 0.6 Financing requirements
0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Cash at start 24.64
0.16 0.16 0.16 + Net cash inflow -0.05
0.1 0.1 = Cash at end of period 24.58
0.08
2.00 2.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017
Cash 24.64 24.581
4.47 4.50 4.58 4.67 Accounts receivable 2.22 2.26
0.72 0.88 0.98 1.06 Inventory 1.56 1.59
5.19 5.38 5.56 5.73 Other current assets 0.56 0.57
Current assets 28.98 29.01
Gross PP&E
5.19 5.38 5.56 5.73 Accum. Dep
Other fixed assets
Total Assets 28.98 29.01
-0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06
0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 Account payable 1.86 1.90
2.34 2.40 2.46 2.52 Other current liabilities 5.54 5.65
2.524194 2.548613 2.566771 2.610626 Short term debt 2.28 2.34
5.50 5.69 5.46 5.47 Current liabilities 9.68 9.89
△Inventories + △Other CA - △AP - △other CL Long term debt 9.72 7.38
Other non current liabilities
Common stock 0.84
24.58 24.27 23.97 24.06 Retained earnings 34.94 37.14
-0.31 -0.30 0.10 0.27 Total liab /OE 55.18 54.40
24.27 23.97 24.06 24.33
ained earning)
ck+ retained earnings)