1.

9 Project: Estimating the Population of the United States 45

for high stable x∗ . Show what happens to the population over time on the graph
and explain.

Part 5
1. Compute and plot the bifurcation curves for this equation. This can be done
most easily in parametric form with r = r(x) and k = k(x). You can see this
easily by looking at your graph in Part 2. There are two conditions for the
bifurcations,
a. x is at an equilibrium, i.e., dx/dτ = 0 ⇒ f (x) = g(x), and
b. g(x) is tangent to f (x), or (d/dx)g(x) = (d/dx) f (x).
You should get two equations, one for r(x) and the other for k(x), which will
define two separate curves in the (r, k)-plane (remember to restrict the ranges
of r and k to positive values). Plot the curves in the (r, k)-plane and label the
different regions with number of equilibria and whether they are “outbreak’, “
refuge”, or “bistable.”
2. The point where the two curves intersect and disappear is called the cusp. Cal-
culate its coordinates.

1.9 Project: Estimating the Population of the United States

Table 1.1 in Exercise 3, Section 1.1, gives census data for the United States from
1790 to 1990. In this project, we will explore the question of fitting these data to a
logistic model.
Method I: We may rewrite the solution(1.7) of the logistic model as
K − x K − x0 −rt
= e ,
x x0
or taking natural logarithms,
K −x K − x0
log = log − rt. (1.31)
x x0

Question 1
Derive the relation (1.31) from (1.7)
Thus, if we plot log K−x
x against t, we should obtain a straight line. However, there
is a problem: We do not know the value of K. We may try to avoid this problem by
estimating K by eye from the graph of the data points (t, x). If we obtain similar
curves when we fit the data to a logistic curve for several different values of K,
so that our results are not very sensitive to changes in K, then we may have some
confidence in these results.
46 1 Continuous Population Models

Question 2
For each of the values K = 200, K = 250, K = 300, use the data of Table 1.1 to plot
log K−x
x as a function of t. Excel

Question 3
For each of the values K = 200, K = 250, K = 300, use the method of least squares
(Exercise 3, Section1.1) to estimate the slope −r and the intercept log K−x
x0 .
0

Question 4
For each of the values K = 200, K = 250, K = 300, use the results obtained in Ques-
tion 3 to give a function describing the population size, and use this function to
predict the result of the year 2000 census.

Method II: From the logistic model, we have

x$ ! x"
= r 1− ,
x K
$
Thus if we plot xx(t)
(t)
as a function of x, we should obtain a straight line with x− inter-
−r
cept K and slope K . The problem here is that our data describe x, not x$ . However,
we can use the data to estimate x$ . If xi and xi+1 are two consecutive measurements
x −x
taken with a time interval h, we may approximate xi$ by i+1h i . Actually, the approx-
xi+1 −xi−1
imation 2h is an approximation to xi$ which is significantly more accurate.
Question 5
xi$
Use the data of Table 1.1 to estimate xi$ and then plot xi against xi .
Question 6
Use the method of least squares to estimate r and K, and use your result to predict
the result of the year 2000 census.
In Question 6 you should find that the data points lie quite close to your straight
line up to 1940 but not for 1950 and later.
Question 7
x$
Using only the data from 1950 on, estimate xi$ and plot xii against xi . Then use the
method of least squares to estimate r and K, and use your result to predict the result
of the year 2000 census.
Question 8
What reasons might there be for the apparent jump in carrying capacity between
1940 and 1950?
Over the past 150 years, immigration to the United States has varied considerably
from year to year but has averaged more than 150,000 per year. The logistic model
does not include any immigration.
1.9 Project: Estimating the Population of the United States 47

Question 9
Suggest a modification of the logistic model that would include immigration. What
would you expect to be the effect of this modification on the estimate of carrying
capacity that would be obtained using the same data?
Question 10
Taking into account all that you have done in this project, what is your best guess
for the result of the year 2000 census?