Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Associate Professor
EM Normandie Business School, France.
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Disclaimer
Jargons – but inevitable J -it tastes “bad now”, but sooner or later you realize the
importance.
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In groups:
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Variance Cost
Reduction Minimization
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Other areas…
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SCM
Select three different (product/service) companies
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Global Trends
Complex … Yet
Interdependent
Supply Chains
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Information
Product
Supplier Customer
Funds
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C
U
S
T
O
M
E
R
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Enterprise characters?
(Supply chain perspective)
Decoupling
Point
Multiple Integrated Push Pull
dysfunction Enterprise
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SCM SCM
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Triple A approach
Matching
Agility Supply
Chains
with
Products
Alignment Adaptability
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Demand Management
Forecasting
Demand
Management
Demand
management
The art of prophecy is very
difficult – especially wit
respect to future Order
CRM
management
Mark Twain
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FORECASTING FUNDEMANTAL
Key supply chain Issues
PRINCIPLES
Material flow from suppliers through distribution
are rarely 100 should include an are more accurate are more accurate
Deployment and use of resources percent accurate estimate of error for product groups for nearer periods
over time and families of time
Relationship with suppliers and customers
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Volume
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6. Decision making
2. Forecast
generation
8. Documenting
assumptions
and Only independent demand needs to be forecasted.
authorization
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Components of an Observation
Dynamic
Stable
Quantity
Trend (growth or decline in demand)
Average demand
Seasonality (predictable seasonal fluctuation)
• Random component: The part of the forecast that deviates from the systematic component
Period
• Forecast error: difference between forecast and actual demand
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Demand
Quarters Quarters
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Forecasting Demand
Demand
1 Forecasting
Techniques
Quarters
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Quantitative
Quantitative analysis Qualitative
Time Series Subjective or forecast forecast
Causal (extrinsic)
(intrinsic) judgmental
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Qualitative
Uh, give me a minute....
We sold 250 wheels last
week.... Now, next week
Independent
Executive/
management Market research
Sales force
Historical analogy
we should sell....
judgment estimates
judgment
Expert opinion Management Focus group Panel consensus Product life cycle
estimation Survey Delphi technique analysis
Pyramid forecasting Sales force composite The forecast for any period
equals the previous period’s
actual value.
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Calculation of Bias
Tracking the Forecast Bias =
S (actual – forecast) *
number of periods
0
Bias: Products A and B = =0
10
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Forecasts are rarely 100 percent correct Why track the forecast? Bias: Product C = = 27.5
10
over time.
To understand why demand differs from the forecast
To plan around error in the future
* S (actual – forecast) = cumulative sum of (period forecast) error
To improve forecasting methods
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• Cu = underage cost
– The consequence of ordering one fewer unit than what you would have ordered had you known demand.
• Suppose you had lost sales (you under ordered). Cu is the increase in profit you would have enjoyed
As more units are ordered, the expected
had you ordered one more unit.
benefit from ordering one unit decreases
– For the Hammer 3/2 Cu = Price – Cost = p – c = 190 – 110 = 80 while the expected loss of ordering one
more unit increases.
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• Hence, to maximize profit, choose Q such that the probability we satisfy all demand (i.e., demand is Q or lower) equals the
critical ratio.
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Sourcing
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Price
Quality
Delivery
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Strategic
measure Supplier
1. Select Purchasing 4. Best practices Selection
3. sourcing 6. Contract and bonuses
goods or cycle Place Strategy
Develo cycle Implemen Management services order
p t Strategy
Strateg
y 5. Award 6. Verify & 5. Receive
4. Negotiate
with bidders business pay invoice goods or
services
Quality control: Negotiations: You
The Never- get what you pay
ending Story for
Value Generation Value Capture
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Benchmarking
• Competitive Benchmarking
– Own industry comparison Identifying the right supplier from a
– Competitive position target low cost source
• Best –in – class Benchmarking
– Looks to the best from Anywhere
• Process Benchmarking
– against a checklist of world class process
descriptions
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Collect
additiona
1st level screening l data?
• Basic Requirements
•Supplier size 2nd level evaluation
•Ability to develop custom •Selection criteria
solutions developed with the
Role of Technical
•Geographical coverage category strategy as and Social
•Technological capability a guiding principle
•Quality product/service compliance ???
offering
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Any questions
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Item Cost Includes price paid for the item plus other
direct costs associated with the purchase
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•Pilferage, space, and obsolescence
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Example Problem D
The EOQ Model Annual setup cost = S
Q
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Annual holding cost = (Average inventory level) Optimal order quantity is found when annual setup cost equals
x (Holding cost per unit per year) annual holding cost
D Q
Order quantity S = H
= (Holding cost per unit per year) Q 2
2
Solving for Q*
2DS = Q2H
Q (H) Q2 = 2DS/H
2 Q* = 2DS/H
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2(1,000)(10) 1,000
Q* = = 40,000 = 200 units N= = 5 orders per year
0.50
200
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• 3 basic systems
Units on hand
Order Point
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OP = DDLT + SS
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Points to Remember The order quantity is 1,000 units and the safety
– Order quantities are usually fixed stock is 300 units. What is the average
– Order intervals may vary inventory?
– If the demand or the lead time changes the order
point must be changed (or the safety stock will
change) Average inventory = Q + safety stock
2
Average inventory = order quantity + safety stock = 1,000 + 300
2 2
= 800 units
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a. Number of orders per year = annual demand c. From the table of safety factors
order quantity Safety factor (95%) = 1.65
= 52,000
2600 Safety Stock = safety factor x sigma
= 20 orders per year = 1.65 x 100 = 165 units
b. Since one stockout per year is allowed, there must be no d. DDLT = (52,000 / 52 weeks per yr) = 1000 units
stockouts (20 - 1) = 19 times per year.
Order point = DDLT + SS
Service level = 20 - 1= 95% = 1000 + 165
20 = 1165 units
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Warehouse Management
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Is it a Joke or Reality?
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VAS
Responsibilities of Warehouse
From Western world Experience
Other than Storage & Retrieval ??
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Quantity and Space Management • From the Current total inventory from X 1 (old) to X2 (new)
• From locations to n1 (old) and n2 (new )locations
Replenishment Management
• How much inventory (total) - N1 and N2 Should have ?
Order Management
o s
ic r
M t io n Conveyor science/Destination • X2= X1 √ (N2/N1)
era a management – N1 = No of existing facilities
Op Are – N2 = No of future facilities
Packaging Science
– X1 = Total inventory in existing facilities
Shipment Planning
– X2 = Total inventory in future facilities
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X2 = 40000 √(2/8)
= 40000 (0.5) = 20,000 Units (on total)
= 10000 units each ( at new locations)
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PO
Company’s dept
Received by Dept
Delivery Schedule
Delivery Challan
RR / LR
Raised by Dept
Packign List/ Slip
Discrepancy Note
Material Rejection
Note
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RRP
Compression Compression Photo Effects Invasion Invasion
Impacts Reaction Expansion Condensation
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Packaging Requirements
ISPM -15
(International Standards For Phytosanitary
Measures No. 15)
Pack your cargo with cardboard, plywood, veneer etc only. Don’t HT is the code for heat treatment to a minimum of 56 °C (133 °F)
use wood in your packing at all. Use plastic shipping supplies too. for a minimum of 30 minutes
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Flute Science
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Numb
Acronym Name
er
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????
Transaction
Documentation Distribution
channel channel
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Intermediaries
• Freight forwarders
• Non Vessel Operating Common Carriers
• Consolidators
• Customs House Brokers
• Export Management companies /Trading Cos
• Shipping associations
• Ship Brokers & Agents
• Export Packing Companies
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SCM 06/01/2023
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ICD
CFS
role in IL ?
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Air Freights
Why ??
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Air Transportation
• Warsaw Convention
– ICAO
• Types of Players
• Air Freighter
• Charter Airplane
• Integrators
• Combi Aircrafts
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• Different cost components along with the Freight rate/kg to } Air lines has a cut off period & special packaging
the destination – incl Terminal Handling Charges (THC), X- ray requirements along with equipment used.
& Scanning charges, Fuel surcharges (FSC) – etc.,
} Generally – for all the airlines 24 to 48 hours is the
• Different Sector Analysis on both Domestic and Intl’ routes. cooling period before the cargo is palletized and
loaded into the aircraft.
• Advantage to have the knowledge about hubs for air cargos
for each airlines – and the to the international airlines, which } Knowledge about documentation involved in Air
does not have operation in any airports, need to identify the Freights – such as Airway Bill (AWB), Customs
carrier which is supplying to the nearby Cargo hub of that invoice, Insurance, Packing List is an advantage.
particular airline – eg.
} Should know about Airfreight volume calculation
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Air freight is charged on a weight basis (kg), either by volume weight DIM Weight, volumetric weight, Cubed Weight, etc
or actual weight of the freight. In most cases, both volume and
actual weight are evaluated and the air freight will be charged based Prices (airfreight rates) are always quoted per kg/6 dm³. It
on the weight, whichever is greater. can also be called the volume ratio 1 : 6 or 1 m3 = 167 kg.
That means you either pay for the weight or the space
Volume weight in Kgs can be calculated by = (LX W X H in cms)/6000 necessary for the transport of your consignment.
or LX W XH (inches)/366 in Kgs (166 in lbs)
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LD 3
• AKE Containers
• Volume : 4.2 m3
• Wide bodies
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LD 9 – AAP
Export and Import
4,898 kgs
Flowchart
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International payments
Trade finance
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Four basic Documentary credit (Letter Provides the greatest security for seller but
of credit)
Cash in not for buyer
terms of
advance The buyer simply prepays the seller prior to
payment Documentary collection shipment of the goods and risks that seller will
not comply with all the terms of contract.
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• most common
• Security and almost equal risk for both of the parties
• Added cost (for the handling of the documentary credit)
to buyer
Documentary • A bank’s commitment to pay the seller a specified
amount of money on behalf of the buyer under
credit •
precisely defined conditions
The buyer specifies certain documents (including a
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• most common
• Security and almost equal risk for both of the parties
• Added cost (for the handling of the documentary
credit) to buyer Questions for the buyer
• A bank’s commitment to pay the seller a specified
amount of money on behalf of the buyer under • Is my bank experienced in documentary credit transactions?
precisely defined conditions
Documentary credit • The buyer specifies certain documents (including a
• Am I prepared to amend or renegotiate terms of the credit with the seller?
• Am I certain of all the documents required for customs clearance?
(Letter of credit) document of title) which the seller has to give to the
bank in order to receive the payment – must conform
Questions for the seller
precisely!
• Will I take care to confirm the good standing of the buyer and the buyer´s bank?
• Payment after the goods is shipped and the bank is • Will we carefully review the credit to make sure its conditions can be met?
provided by the documents (bill of lading)
• Am I committed to properly prepare documentation for the credit?
• Disagreements regarding the order are handled • Can we comply with every detail of the credit?
between B and S independently of the banks or of
• Am I prepared to amend or renegotiate terms of the credit with the buyer?
payment!
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• Less risk for the buyer and the greatest risks for the seller – Not much common in
that the buyer will not comply with the terms of the international trade
contract and pay as promised.
• The seller should always consider whether any other
alternatives are available before agreeing to open account
terms.
Open – goods are shipped to the foreign
branch or subsidiary of a
multinational company
• The buyer has to pay for the goods within a designated time
after the shipment, usually 30, 60, 90 days, no longer that
180 days.
Account – High degree of trust between the
persons
• Time to: receive the goods, check it, market them in his
domestic market, receive payment for it and make payment – The seller has significant faith in
to the seller. the buyer’s ability and willingness
• Made by: bank draft, check, wire payment to the bank to pay.
account specified by the seller
• If the buyer does not pay – the last chance is to take an legal
action on the basis of sales contract.
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