Brandon Brown PSC 584 Spring 2014

Methods Paper One: Process Tracing

In light of recent geo- political events and within the effort of engaging a contemporary
circumstance for evaluation, my descriptive case study focuses on the recent Ukrainian crisis
involving the Crimean peninsula and the contention brewing in the region regarding national
sovereignty. Within the past six months, several events involving mass riots and reported
violence have occurred in the region. Although this situation involving an international dispute
over territory may have seemed to come unexpectedly, Crimean history offers important causal
perspective, as the events stemming from the November 2013 protests and recent political
actions on behalf of Russia and Ukraine, can be traced several hundred years retrospectively in
time.
More recently, the region is unsettled due to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the
1990’s, which altered the relationship between neighboring Russia and Ukraine. This
relationship as it relates to authority over the Crimean Peninsula was established because of the
cold war and only because the world wars that preceded, which in themselves can be traced to
the Crimean War which was a result of the Vienna Conference that authorized a legitimate claim
to Russia of specific lands, but in turn established the basis for why France and England
supported the Turks after the Turks refused to accept Russia’s propriety claims of specific holy
sites within the Baltic region. Russia’s slow and seemingly, intentional effort to expand has
resulted in the current Ukrainian political crisis. 1
The regions tumultuous history prior to the 1900’s may also shed light on the issues of
sovereignty currently at hand in Ukraine. Underneath the current controversy lies an element of
ethnic sentiment and popular nationalist rhetoric. According to the BBC News Corporation,
Ethnic Ukrainians make up 24% of the population, while Russians hold 58% of the population
and the indigenous Tartars represent only 12% of the population. Regarding the disparity in
representation of ethnically indigenous people, the outcome of Joseph Stalin’s expulsion of the
Tartars in 1944 can be directly traced to recent conflict in region. As Crimean Tartars have
returned to their ancestral homeland following the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions
regarding land claims and other matters have continued. 2
The ethnic conflict in Crimea has a long history. The current Tartar minority in the
region was originally the majority, stemming from the regions historic occupation by the Muslim
Ottoman-Turk Empire. As conflict over Europe’s ‘Holy Sites’ continued following the crusades,
the Christian Church was divided and Russia was granted protectorate rights over the Orthodox
Christians within the Ottoman empire as a result of the Vienna Conference of 1853. 3 In the
same year, the Turkish Sultan declared war on Russian in disagreement with the decision of the
Vienna Conference, but was overwhelmingly defeated by the Russians in a naval battle in the
Black Sea. The following year, Britain and France joined forces against Russia with the goal of
halting Russian expansion. 4 Russian troops were forced from Crimea in September of 1855 and
in March of 1956; the Peace of Paris Treaty further re-established the region under Ottoman rule
until 1914. 5

1
“Crimean War.” Encyclopedia Britannica. Encyclopedia Britannica Online[Inc.] (2014)
2
“Why Crimea is so dangerous,” BBC News Europe (2014)
3
“The Crimean War: Immediate Causes” The Victorian Web
4
Ibid: Bloy
5
“Crimean War” 2009 A&E Television Network 2009

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Brandon Brown PSC 584 Spring 2014
Methods Paper One: Process Tracing

From the apparent political inconsistencies relating to Crimean autonomy within the 20th
century, what can almost irrefutably be understood is the context from which recent conflicts in
the region were derived. The ‘state’ of Crimea was established prior to the cold war following
the end of the Russian Empire in 1917. In 1921 Crimea joined the Soviet Union as the ‘Crimean
Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic,’ however became an ‘administrative region’ of Russian
in 1945. Essentially, in 1945 Russia gave Crimea to Ukraine. 6 During the Second World War,
Crimea became occupied by Germany and upon it’s recapturing by Russia, the ethnically
indigenous people of the region were deported and banned, leaving a majority of Russian ethnic
influence in population throughout the region. At the end of the Cold War in late 1991, a
Ukrainian independence referendum was held where as 54% of the Crimean voters within the
country expressed the desire to remain independent from Russia. Although independent from
Russia, Crimea maintained autonomy within Ukraine in the form of its own government. Most
recently, Russia and Ukraine established a ‘Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership,
which established a continued Russian naval presence in Sevastopol, a port city on the Crimean
peninsula. 7
More contemporarily, according to the international news company Al Jazeera’s time-
line, the unprecedented events in Ukraine began as recently as November of 2013, when the
former President, Viktor Yanukovych announced a departure from the continuance of particular
trade agreements with the European Union. 8 This type of decision-making has major
implications on world markets and international politics. 9 On December 1st of last year,
300,000 protesters gathered in Kiev’s Independence Square and took over the City Hall, forcing
Yanukovych to flee the city in late February. 1011 Additionally in late February, after over one
hundred deaths and several hundred protestors being jailed, armored convoys of Russian
operatives seized government buildings and the international airport. 12
In the midst of current international speculation, apparent efforts to democratize the
potential transition have surfaced. In Russia, the parliament gave the president, Vladimir Putin,
the authority to mobilize troops in Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula. Additionally, as of
March 6th, the quasi-independent Crimean parliament voted to join Russia unanimously. 13 In
response to the Russian utility of force, the Ukrainian government declared that the actions were
forms of aggression and the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting. Following these
events, the Russian military argued that it asserted the right to ‘protect’ its naval base located in
Crimea, specifically Sevastopol, a major Russian naval port and both historically and
contemporarily strategic Black Sea harbor. On March 3rd NATO declared Russia to be a ‘threat
to peace and security in Europe,’ followed by the Russian deployment of hundreds of troops to
Kiev the next day.
As can be observed, the current crisis in Ukraine can be traced back to the Crimean War
of the mid-19th century and even as far back as the Holy Crusades of the Middle Ages. Today’s

6
Taylor, Adam. “To Understand Crimea, take a look back at its complicated history” The Washington Post (2014)
7
Ibid: Taylor
8
Ibid: Taylor
9
Brandon Brown
10
“Timeline: Ukraine’s Political Crisis,” Al Jazeera and agencies (2014)
11
Higgins, Andrew. “ Steeped in Its Bloody History, Again Embracing Resistance,” New York Times (2014)
12
Taylor, Adam. “To Understand Crimea, take a look back at its complicated history” The Washington Post (2014)
13
“Timeline: Ukraine’s Political Crisis” Al Jazeera and agencies

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Brandon Brown PSC 584 Spring 2014
Methods Paper One: Process Tracing

Russian majority in Crimea owes its community presence to the massacre of thousands of
Crimean Tartars by the Stalin regime. Additionally, the Tartars benefited by the defeat of the
Russians by Anglo-French troops during the campaign to aid the Turkish empire from Russian
invasion. Although Britain was primarily concerned with protecting trade routes and France was
most interested in the prestige of victory, the outcome of their mutual support for the Turkish
Empire protected the Muslim nation of Crimea from Russian advances for over half a century
preceding the onset of the First World War. 1415

14
Lambert, Andrew “The Crimean War,”
15
“The (Original) Crimean War: What you need to know” Borys, David The Star (2014)