2014 Frost - OEM Powertrain Strategies For CAFÉ Compliance in North America Towards 2020

OEM Powertrain Strategies for CAFÉ Compliance in
North America Towards 2020

Gasoline to Dominate, Clean Diesels to Grow in Tandem with Electrified Powertrains
MA37-18
October 2014
Research Team
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Sudeep Kaippalli Yeswant Abhimanyu

Senior Research Analyst Industry Analyst
Powertrain EV- Automotive and Transportation Powertrain EV- Automotive and Transportation
SudeepK@frost.com YeswantA@frost.com
Program Manager Strategic Review Committee Leader
Anjan Hemanth Kumar Sarwant Singh

Program Manager Senior Partner
Powertrain EV- Automotive and Transportation Automotive and Transportation
anjan.kumar@frost.com Sarwant.Singh@frost.com
Special Thanks
Lindsay Wooten Jovan Jacob J Santosh
Executive Editor Senior Research Analyst Team Leader Electronic Production
MA37-18 2
Contents
Section Slide Number

Executive Summary 4
Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 16
Definitions and Segmentation 22
Market Overview 32
Total Powertrain Market -
• Drivers and Restraints 36
• Forecasts and Trends 43
OEM Profiles and Fuel Economy Outlook 49
Conclusion and Future Outlook 90
Appendix 94
MA37-18 3
Executive Summary
Return to contents
MA37-18 4
Key Findings
Downsizing will pioneer the development of many related systems, including direct injections and advanced
combustion strategies. Clean diesel technologies and electrified powertrains will see comparable growth levels.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Takeaways, North America, 2013–2020
For passenger cars, the stringency of fuel economy targets is expected to grow at the rate of
4.1% for model years (MYs) 2017–2021 and at 4.3% through MYs 2022–2025. For light trucks,
1 the stringency is set to grow at a lower pace, 2.9%, for MYs 2017–2021 and will grow at 4.7%
every year for MYs 2022–2025.
For almost all of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), engines up to 2.5L (liters) will
2 grow faster than the larger engines. While downsizing could be the first priority for many, some
will equally focus on improved combustion strategies, high-pressure injection systems, and
energy-efficient turbochargers.
Clean diesel technologies pioneered by European OEMs are likely to gain increased popularity
3 and may grab some market share from expensive electrics in the medium term.
Transmission technologies will have higher role of improving drivability and fuel economy and,
4 consequently, will pave the way to automatics, continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), and
dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) with higher speed ratios.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 5
Key Findings (continued)
The fuel economy outlook can be turned into a positive by all OEMs by 2020, through functional improvements
in engines systems, transmission technologies, and alternative propulsion techniques.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Takeaways, North America, 2013–2020
Manufacturers with a larger proportion of high displacement engines will have aggressive
5 strategies for displacement on demand (DoD) technologies, lightweighting, friction reduction, and
energy recovery technologies.
Fuel cells and other alternative propulsion techniques will see a boost towards 2020 with major
6 OEMs, such as Ford, Toyota, GM, and Daimler, going forward with aggressive development
plans.
Invariably, all OEMs will exploit the fuel saving potential of stop-start systems and the same will
7 see an average 30% to 40% deployment in all OEMs by 2020.
With the aggressive deployment of advanced engine and transmission technologies, together
8 with alternative propulsion techniques, the fuel efficiency outlook can turn positive for almost all
OEMs by 2020.
MA37-18 6
Market Engineering Measurements
Downsizing, complemented with boosting, to remain the paramount factor for fuel-economy compliance towards
2020. Unit shipments for engines below 2.5L to grow by 3.5%, outpacing industry growth.
Total Powertrain Market: Market Engineering Measurements, North America, 2013

Market Overview
Market Size for
Market
Market Stage Downsizing Boosting Last Year of
Units/Volume
Study Period
18.0– 20.5–
Growth 3.5% 8.7%
18.5 M 21.0 M
(CAGR of 1L–2.5L engines, (CAGR of boosted
2013–2020) (2013) Engines, 2013–2020) (2020)
Base Year Compound

Market Number of
Market Growth Annual Growth
Concentration Competitors
Rate Rate
7.4% 1.8% 44.5% >25

(% of market share held by (active market competitors in
(CAGR, 2013–2020) top 3 companies) base year)
Decreasing Stable Increasing For a tabular version click here.

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 7
Total Market Unit Shipment Snapshot
Hybrid and electric vehicles will grow by close to 11% in order to meet fuel economy targets, while gasoline
dominance will continue with large-scale energy efficiency improvements.
Total Powertrain Market: Unit Shipments by Propulsion Types and OEMs, North America, 2013 and 2020
18.0–18.5 20.0–21.0
Million Gasoline- IC only Gasoline- Hybrids Flex fuel- IC only Flex fuels- Hybrids Million
3.5%
5.4% Diesel LPG & CNG Electric Vehicles
4.0 7.2%
17.5% CAGR (2013–2020) = 1.8% 9.0%

3.5
1.8% 9.0%
Unit Shipments (Million)
3.0
2.5
74.8% 2.0 70.8%
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
GM
Ford
Chrysler
Honda
Hyundai
Toyota
Daimler
Renault-
Others
VW
Nissan
2013 2020
OEM
Others includes BMW, Tesla, and other smaller OEMs. Graph in center represents data for 2020.
For a list of abbreviations, click here.
MA37-18 8
Market Breakdown by OEM Snapshot
Subcompact and compact cars will be increasingly sought after towards 2020; Ford and Hyundai will lead this
trend, largely through their smaller engines and vehicles.
Unit Shipments
Unit Shipments 5 Total Powertrain Market: Market Breakdown by OEM, 20.5–21.0
18.0–18.5 North America, 2013 and 2020 Million
Million
4 17.5%
19.3% 3.6 M
Vehicle Shipments (Million)
3.2 M 3.4 M
16.2%
3 13.5%
2.7 M 18.8%
14.1%
19.4% 13.2%
25.5% 2.3 M
13.4% 2.0 M47.3%
2 20.5%
26.6% 1.7 M 16.1%
23.3%
20.1% 16.7% 16.4%
19.0%
16.8%
1 25.9% 27.9%
28.6% 38.8%
36.7% 29.5%
20.1% 22.8% 33.6%
17.1% 8.9% 30.9%
0
30.3% General Ford Fiat Chrysler Toyota Renault- Hyundai Others
Motors Nissan
A - Basic B - Subcompact C - Compact D - Midsize
5.6% 7.2%
E - Large F - Large Plus G - Sports MPV
2013 Pickup SUV Van 2020
Others include Honda, BMW, VW, Daimler, and other smaller OEMs.
Graph in center represents data for 2020.
MA37-18 9
Market Breakdown by OEM and Segment Growth
Downsizing will be a key trend; meanwhile, larger vehicles with focused applications that make a meaningful
value proposition to consumers are also set to grow towards 2020.
Total Powertrain Market: Vehicle Growth Outlook by OEM and Segment, North America, 2013–2020
Renault-
Segment GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Hyundai Nissan Honda Others
A- Basic ● ● ● ● ▲
B- Subcompact ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
C- Compact ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
D- Midsize ● ▲ ▼ ● ▲ ▲ ▲ ●
E- Large ● ▲ ● ● ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
F- Large Plus ▲ ▲
G- Sports ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ● ● ▲ ▲
MPV ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Pick Up ▲ ● ● ▲ ● ▲ ▲
SUV ▲ ● ▲ ● ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲
Van ▲ ▲ ● ● ● ▲ ▲
▲ Growing ▼ Declining ● Stable Not Applicable
Others include, BMW, VW, Daimler, and other smaller OEMs.
MA37-18 10
Market Breakdown by Segment and Propulsion Types’ Growth
Powertrain electrification will grow significantly, while diesels and flex fuels will also penetrate into almost all
segments to make powertrains more fuel economic and clean.
Total Powertrain Market: Vehicle Growth Outlook by Segment and Propulsion Type,
North America, 2013–2020
Electrified Gasoline-
Segment Diesel Powertrains Gasoline CNG Flex Fuel
B- Subcompact ▲ ▲ ▲
C- Compact ▲ ▲ ● ▼ ▲
D- Midsize ▲ ▲ ● ▼
E- Large ▲ ▲ ● ▲ ●
G- Sports ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲
MPV ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲
Pick Up ▲ ▲ ● ▲ ▼
SUV ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼
Van ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼
Key: CNG = Compressed Natural Gas.
▲ Growing ▼ Declining ● Stable Not Applicable

The segments with less significant shipments have been excluded.
MA37-18 11
Powertrain Technology Development and Adoption Drivers
Downsizing will remain the key trend; however, high focus will be also be seen in lean combustion techniques,
heat recovery systems, stop-starts, and lightweighting among all OEMs.
Total Powertrain Market: Technology Focus of OEMs, North America, 2013–2020
High Light-
Advanced Optimized Exhaust VVT/ Speed weighting
Engine Direct Advanced Combustion/ Heat CVVT/ Stop- AT/ Hybrids Alternative /Reduced
OEM Downsizing Injection Boosting Lean Burn Recovery VVL DoD Starts DCTs & EV Fuels Friction
BMW
Chrysler
Ford
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Renault-Nissan
Toyota
VW
Daimler
For a list of abbreviations, click here.

Legend: Priority Very low Low Medium High Very high
MA37-18 12
Powertrain Technology Package Focus
Downsized and boosted engines will see high levels of penetration in OEM fleets. Larger engines with
advanced light-weight materials and energy recovery systems will also evolve to improve CAFÉ compliance.
Total Powertrain Market: Technology Package Focus of OEMs, North America, 2013–2020
Larger Engines +
Displacement on Electric
Direct Injection + Smaller Engines + Demand + Vehicles /Fuel
Downsizing + Advanced Advanced Valve Train Lightweighting + Smaller Cells/
Boosting + Automatics + Strategy + Lean Friction Reduction + Engines + Alternative
OEM Direct Injection Stop-starts Combustion Waste Heat Recovery Hybridization Fuels
BMW
Chrysler
Ford
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Renault-Nissan
Toyota
VW
Daimler
Legend: Priority Very low Low Medium High Very high

MA37-18 13
North America—CO2 Emission Targets for 2025 by Segment
CO2 emission targets follow higher increases than fuel-economy targets considering the technology options
that contribute to a reduction in CO2 may not have any direct positive impact on fuel economy.
Total Powertrain Market: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CO2) Target, North America, 2025
260
252
240 Mini Van

Grams CO2 per Mile
Midsize Large Pick up truck

220
cross over
209
200
Small SUV Full Size car
188
180
170 170
160 Compact
147
140 Midsize Car
131
120
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Vehicle Footprint-Square feet
Compact Full Size Midsize

Segment Car Midsize Car Car Small SUV Cross over Mini Van Large Pick up
Nissan Toyota Chevrolet

Example Honda Fit Ford Fusion Chrysler 300 Ford Escape
Murano Sienna Silverado
Source: NHTSA; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 14
Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Ecosystem—Interplaying Factors
Stringency of the ZEV Mandate will continue to increase, while end-user acceptance and supply chain
readiness will continue to pose challenges for OEMs along this front.
Powertrain Market: ZEV Mandate and Interplaying Factors, North America, 2013–2020
Governmental Stance Highest OEM Readiness

OEMs’ efforts will continue to focus on bringing
higher energy capacities and enhanced drivability.
The stringency of the mandate will steadily go

up in terms of the required proportions of ZEVs
in fleets, while supports and incentives from However, this will go at a slower pace than
government will follow at a slower but significant required, because a supply-chain
pace. framework has yet to stabilize, owing to a
yet-to-develop supply chain frame work.
2020 X =Year 2013, Y= Zero (Impact) 2020
End-User Acceptance
Infrastructure Development
The biggest concern for automakers, which is Incentives for fast-charging and multi-
the salability of ZEVs, will have to be standard chargers will bring an impetus to
overcome by reducing upfront costs and total infrastructure development.
cost of ownership, along with offering
uninterrupted mobility and fast-charging
technologies.
Highest
MA37-18 15
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology
Return to contents
MA37-18 16
Research Scope
Base Year 2013
Study Period 2013 to 2020
Forecast Period 2014 to 2020
Vehicle Type Passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles
Geographical Scope North America (United States of America, Mexico, and Canada)
Total Powertrain Market: Unit Shipment-Sales Data, North America, 2013–2020
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OEM (Million) (Million) (Million) (Million) (Million) (Million) (Million) (Million)
General Motors 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Ford 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2
Chrysler 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Toyota 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8
Honda 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
Renault-Nissan 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
Hyundai 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Others 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
Total 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.8
Others include BMW, VW, Daimler, and other smaller OEMs.
MA37-18 17
Research Aims and Objectives
Aim
The study aims to identify the major powertrain options and technology packages that will have to be
deployed by OEMs in their fleets in order to meet fuel economy and emission regulations until 2020.
Objectives
• Provide an overview of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations and policy framework for
controlling emissions and improving energy efficiency in the North American region.
• Understand the growth of stringency and, subsequently targets, year-over-year (YoY) of these
regulations until 2020.
• Provide forecasts regarding the penetration of various powertrain technologies in passenger cars and
light-duty vehicles.
• Map the key technology options, such as downsizing and direct injection, and to understand their role in
taking the fuel economy numbers towards compliance.
• Understand the futuristic advancements of these technologies, which provide periodical upgrades, to give
improved efficiency and performance characteristics.
• Understand the overall strategies of OEMs for minimizing fuel consumption and total ownership costs,
while taking vehicle drivability to higher levels, year-over-year.
• Give key suggestions in terms of powertrain technology packages for improved energy efficiency and
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) compliance.
MA37-18 18
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Total Powertrain Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, North America, 2013–2020
What are the business and regulation environments of the automotive industry, their dynamics, and
their impact on the technology roadmap of powertrains?
What are the key technology options available for OEMs? Where do the various options stand from a
fuel-cost savings perspective?
What are the compliance strategies of key OEMs in North America to meet stringent fuel economy
standards towards 2020?
How will the fuel economy levels of OEMs progress every year until 2020? What technologies will be
key enablers?
In the medium and long terms, what are the most viable technology options to bring down fuel
consumptions levels while making the vehicles perform better and enhance drivability?
MA37-18 19
Research Methodology
Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and primary research
data.
Secondary Research: This refers to the extraction of information from existing reports and project material
within the Frost & Sullivan database, and includes data and information gathered form technical papers,
specialized magazines, seminars, and Internet research.
Primary Research: More than 10 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior
consultants/industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities, and distributors.
Primary research accounted for 80% of the total research.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Industry Participants, North America, 2013–2020
Company Company
Ford Renault-Nissan
General Motors AVL Powertrain
Chrysler Denso
Honda Borg Warner
Toyota Tenneco
Daimler Linamar
MA37-18 20
Key OEMs Compared in This Study
The OEM groups compared in this study are as follows:
Group OEMs Group OEMs
Fiat-Chrysler
Toyota Toyota, Lexus, Scion Fiat, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep
(Chrysler)
Renault- General Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet GMC,

Nissan, Infiniti
Nissan Motors (GM) Saturn
Volkswagen
Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda Ford Ford, Lincoln
(VW)
BMW BMW, Mini Honda Honda, Acura
Daimler Mercedes-Benz, Smart Hyundai Hyundai, Kia
MA37-18 21
Definitions and Segmentation
Return to contents
MA37-18 22
CAFÉ Credits—Definitions and Compliance Options
Multiple options will give increased room for compliance, particularly after 2020, where targets will go up with
increased stringency. Paying penalties may also be seen as a strategy.
Definition
A credit is earned when the CAFÉ rating of the vehicle exceeds the standard by 1/10 miles per gallon; a
shortfall occurs in case the fuel efficiency is lower than the fleet standard.
Calculation
Total credits of an OEM in miles per gallon (mpg) = ∑(CAFEc – Standardc) * vehicle production * 10,
with ‘c’ being the fleet category of compliance, CAFÉ being the rated fuel-economy value of vehicle/fleet
(mpg), and Standard being CAFÉ standard for the fleet category (mpg).
Dealing with a Credit Shortfall

In the event of credit shortfall, OEMs could do any of the following, to avoid paying penalties:
1 Carry forward credits earned in a previous model year: For example, excess, unused credits from
previous years are transferred to offset the current year’s mpg deficit.
2 Credit transfer within fleets: This entails the transfer of credits from a super compliant fleet to a non-
compliant fleet in the same company.
Credit trading (Intercompany): This entails the deliberate exchange of credits between automakers,
3 presided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), based on the fuel
efficiency data provided by the EPA.
Carrying back future credits: By providing plans to the NHTSA on how to obtain excess credits over
4 the standards in the future years, OEMs can avoid penalties.
MA37-18 23
CAFÉ Credits—Inter-fleet Transfers
Credit transferability between different types of fleet will be used for fuel economy compliance. From 2018,
up to 2 miles per gallon could be sourced from fleets with excess credits.
Intra company credit transfer between vehicle fleets

Using the provisions in the EISA (Energy Independence and Security Act), OEMs can trade credits between
fleets to offset shortfalls. However, the NHTSA has set the maximum increase in fleet-mpg transfers through
credit transfers as shown below.
Model Year 2011–2013 2014–2017 2018–2025

Transferability limit 1.0 mpg 1.5 mpg 2.0 mpg
The initial purchase, however, as a rule, has to be used to offset the shortfall of the same fleet (of the
earner) from which credits were purchased.
MPG transfer between fleet-adjustment factor
To ensure that the process of offsetting credits makes no compromise on oil savings, the NHTSA requires
the credit shortfall to be multiplied by an adjustment factor to arrive at the actual credits to be purchased
from the earner.
VMTp and VMTu are the lifetime vehicle miles travelled by
VMTp * Ae * Se purchasing and using fleets.
Adjustment factor, A =
Ae and Au are the actual mpg values of earning and using fleets.
VMTu * Au * Su Se and Su are the standard mpg values of earning and using
fleets.
If a manufacturer wants to offset a shortfall in its light trucks fleet by purchasing credits from a passenger car
fleet, the credit shortfall has to be multiplied with the adjustment factor and will result in larger unit credits to
be acquired. This is because trucks have larger vehicle miles travelled in their lifetime than passenger cars,
resulting in more oil consumption. Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 24
CAFÉ Credits—Intercompany Trading and Other Credits
Intercompany credit trading will be largely employed by manufacturers with credit shortfalls. Going forward, the
credit transactions are also expected to be increasingly transparent.
Intercompany credit Joint request preparation containing

CAFÉ Credit
trading- details on credit categories and
Accounts created
Process flow diagram requirements from purchases,
by NHTSA
including adjustment factors
Joint formal request to Verification of credit Closure of trade by debiting

NHTSA for credit trading availability at seller’s side by and crediting respective
NHTSA accounts
Credit Carry-forward Flexibility:

The credit banking/trading facility is expected to provide flexibility to OEMs by introducing appropriate fuel
saving and greenhouse gas reducing technologies. Under the Clean Air Act, the EPA also allows a one-time
carrying-forward option for credits beyond 5 years, which allows vehicle manufacturers to use the credits
earned during the 2012–2016 period to be used to offset credit shortfalls in the 2017–2025 period.
Air Conditioning Improvement Credits:

The air conditioning improvement credits are meant primarily for promoting technologies that reduce:
1) tailpipe CO2 emissions through efficiency improvements; and 2) the leakage of refrigerants that contain
hydrofluorocarbons which are highly potent global warmers.
MA37-18 25
Off-cycle Credits—Emission and Fuel-saving Technologies
Thermal management techniques, energy recovery systems, and stop-starts have a large role to play in
optimizing powertrains towards 2020 given their fuel efficiency and emission improvement potential.
Total Powertrain Market: Off-cycle Technologies CO2 and Fuel Economy Adjustments, North America, 2013–2020
Adjustment for cars Adjustment for trucks

Technology grams/mi milli gallons/mi grams/mi milli gallons/mi
High-efficiency exterior lights 1.0 0.113 1.0 0.113
Waste heat recovery (at 100 Watts (W)) 0.7 0.079 0.7 0.079
Solar panels Battery charging only 3.3 0.371 3.3 0.371

(based on a 75 Active cabin ventilation and
W solar panel) 2.5 0.281 2.5 0.281
battery charging
Active aerodynamic improvements
0.6 0.068 1.0 0.113
(for 3% aerodynamic drag reduction)
With heater circulation system 2.5 0.281 4.4 0.495
Engine Idle
Start-Stop Without heater circulation systems 1.5 0.169 2.9 0.326
Active transmission warm-up 1.5 0.169 3.2 0.360

Active engine warm-up 1.5 0.169 3.2 0.360
Solar/thermal control Up to 3.0 0.338 Up to 4.3 0.484
Off-cycle credits acknowledge technologies for their fuel-saving and emission reduction capabilities which are
not reflected in the current test procedures. Apart from the aforementioned technologies, manufacturers can
also claim credits for any other technologies by providing sufficient supporting data to the EPA.
MA37-18 26
ZEV Mandate—California Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA)
Infrastructure to be ready for 1 million vehicles by 2020; however, consumer acceptance may pose challenges,
as total cost of ownership and up-front purchasing will have to be brought down.
Scope
• For the purpose of meeting zero-emission vehicle goals in the state of California, the CEPA has divulged its focus on a
broader range of electric drives that contain hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Objectives
• To boost academic research, private investment for infrastructure, and streamline permitting of ZEVs.
• To have infrastructure in place to support up to 1 million ZEVs by 2020.
• To have more than 1 million ZEVs on the road with an increasing market size by 2025.
Approach
• Planned infrastructure development to support uninterrupted mobility with interoperability of charging stations for 1 million
ZEVs by 2020.
• Scale-down consumer reluctance by reducing up-front vehicle costs and extending specific internal combustion engine
(ICE) driving incentives to ZEVs (such as high-occupancy vehicle lane access).
• Transformation of fleets: 10% of all light-duty purchases to be ZEVs by 2015 and 25% of fleets purchased to be ZEVs by
2020.
• Encourage creation of jobs, and bring investment and strategic plans to revitalize ZEV supply chain in California.
Approach
Responses
• Vehicle manufacturers and related associations have different takes on the pace of ZEV penetration. This mandate
primarily pushes OEMs to make ZEVs, however, ZEV sales would be largely dependent on developing charging
infrastructure, and the incentives for ZEV purchase and ownership.
MA37-18 27
Definition of Key Technologies Compared in the Study
Reduction of Engine Friction Losses:

Friction forces result in the loss of up to 10% of the energy output generated; engine friction accounts for
about half of this wastage. A variety of measures are employed to keep engine friction levels at a minimum.
Some of these are: using low-friction engine components and sub-systems, low-friction coatings, improved
thermal management, roller cam followers, and low-tension piston rings that optimize engine operation. Low
viscosity and advanced, low-friction lubricant oils with improved performance and better lubrication are also
utilized such as 5W-20 and 0W-20.
Turbocharging and Downsizing:
To keep fuel consumption at minimal levels, engine capacities are scaled down in downsizing. This reduces
the average quantity of fuel burnt by the engine and reduces fuel consumption. However, to maintain
sufficient torque or output, turbochargers (TCs) are installed that use the energy of exhaust to compress
intake air. Compressed air would mean a larger number of air molecules in the cylinder, hence a larger mass
of fuel can be injected and burned when required, to give greater output.
Gasoline Direct-injection Technology:
This involves high-pressure fuel injection directly into the combustion chamber, allowing the use of leaner
fuel-air mixtures which improve fuel efficiency and facilitate complete combustion, resulting in higher
thermodynamic efficiency and output.
Automatic Stop-start:
By using a 12-volt, belt-driven, integrated starter generator, automatic stop-start facilitates an idle-stop
feature. An enhanced power starter alternator and a revised accessory drive system generally replace a
common alternator in this system. To prevent voltage drop on restart, improved capacity- batteries are used.
MA37-18 28
Definition of Key Technologies Compared in the Study (continued)
Cylinder Deactivation:
During lighter load conditions, this technology shuts down some cylinders—generally half the total number—
by deactivating the corresponding intake and exhaust valves. This reduces fuel consumption and pumping
losses significantly, as the engine runs as if it were a smaller displacement one.
Intake Cam Phasing:
Cam phasing technologies manipulate the opening of the intake valve, which is advanced or delayed, while
keeping the exhaust valve timings fixed. A cam phaser on each bank of the intake valve facilitates this
operation.
Coupled Cam Phasing:
In single overhead cam (SOHC) and overhead valve (OHV) engines, opening inlet and exhaust valves are
modified to equal extents, by phasing the camshaft through the required angle. A cam phaser on each bank
facilitates this operation in SOHC engines.
Dual Independent Cam Phasing:
Independently controlling the closing and opening of intake and exhaust valves make this the most flexible
variable valve timing (VVT) technology. Valve overlap can be controlled, which results in better exhaust gas
recirculation (EGR). At low engine loads, this results in reduced pumping losses, fuel consumption, and
emissions.
MA37-18 29
Definition of Key Technologies Compared in the Study (continued)
Discrete Variable Valve Lift (DVVL):
Through a hydraulically-actuated mechanical system, a load-specific profile can be chosen out of 2 or 3

available discrete cam profiles. These cam profiles usually have high-lift and low-lift lobes that are activated
based on fuel-economy and power requirements. An inert or blank lobe is also included to facilitate cylinder
deactivation. DVVL is usually applied conjointly with VVT control. DVVL is also referred to as cam profile
switching.
Continuously Variable Valve Lift (CVVL):
In CVVL systems, the engine control unit drives an actuator that varies a mechanical linkage that, in turn,
adjusts the valve lift. The geometry of the mechanical system defines the variations of lift and, consequently,
the valve opening and phasing. Since 2001, BMW has been selling port-injected “Valvetronic” engines that
incorporate CVVL systems. “MultiAir” engines from Fiat also enable precise control over the intake valve lift.
As opposed to a conventionally throttled engine, CVVL allows the airflow to the engine to be continuously
regulated, thereby reducing pumping losses and improving engine efficiency.
MA37-18 30
Vehicle Segmentation
Total Powertrain Market: Market Segmentation by Vehicle Class, Global, 2013
Class Description Examples
A Basic Chevrolet Spark
B Subcompact Honda Fit
C Compact Chevrolet Cruze
D Midsize Toyota Camry
E Large BMW 5 series
F Large plus BMW 7 series
G Sports VW Passat
MPV Multi purpose vehicle Chrysler Town
P Pick up Ford F series
SUV Sports utility vehicle GM Acadia
MA37-18 31
Market Overview
Return to contents
MA37-18 32
Powertrain Technology Roadmap—ICEs and Electric Drive
Internal combustion engines will undergo significant improvements in terms of injection, valve timing, and
boosting systems, while electrified powertrains will need improvements in battery capacity and charging time.
Total Powertrain Market: Technology and Product Roadmap, North America, 2008–2020
Turbocharging, waste gate including electronic control
Continuously variable valve timing and lift Variable compression ratios

Gasoline
Gasoline direct injection High-pressure and multiple injector fuel systems
Gasoline direct injection

compression
Wall-guided stoichiometric, burning Spray-guided lean-burn systems
Multi-stage and variable geometry turbo

Turbocharging charging
Diesel
Electrical assist turbo charging, combining DPF and SCR

Extra-cooled EGR with high-pressure EGR
Common rail- 3rd gen Common rail- 4th gen Common rail- 5th gen Common rail- 6th gen
Technology Roadmap for Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicles
Combination of micro and mild hybrids
Electric range (EV) Over 100 miles Up to 400 miles
Battery capacity 10 kWh–20 kWh (kilowatt hours) More than 30 kWh
Charging time 2–6 hours 15 minutes–2 hours
2008 2014 2017 2020

Key: DPF = Diesel Particulate Filter; SCR = Selective Catalytic Reduction. Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 33
Technology Roadmap—Gasoline Fuel Injection
Stoichiometric gasoline direct injection (GDI) has the advantage of reducing CO2 emissions and is emerging as
the standard GDI technology in North America and Europe.
Total Powertrain Market: Gasoline Direct Injection Technology Roadmap, North America, 2010–2020
Gasoline direct injection with
homogeneous charge
compression ignition
Stratified
Peizo-Electric
GDI
Multi-hole injection with pressure up to 200 bar Multi-hole injection with higher pressure
Expensive nitrous oxides (NOx) after-treatment, Cheaper NOx after-treatment
Gasoline Fuel Injection
spray guided
Solenoid (approximately 0.5 ms), less than 25 μm spray size (Sauter mean diameter (SMD)),
Stoichiometric Gasoline
up to 25 g/sec static flow

Peizo-electric–higher pressure, 20% fuel savings,
Direct Injection
5 times faster (0.2 ms), 40% hydrocarbon reduction

more precision/decisive dosage (over 15 thousandth of a mm)
Wall-guided (fuel hits piston floor)/Low penetration for spray guided
Spray guided (approximately 20% CO2 reduction

potential)
Multi-hole Injection at 1200 g/minute (nominal), 7–10 Injector Openings, Split Injection
Pressure between 30–260 bar Higher Pressure up to 500–800 bar

MPFI
Low pressures at 2.5–4.5 bar and multiple injection
2010 2015 2020

Key: MPFI = Multi-point Fuel Injection Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 34
Technology Roadmap—Variable Valvetrain
Cam phasing to make way for sophisticated cylinder-by-cylinder valve actuation systems, which can be
actuated independent of the crankshaft.
Powertrain Market: Variable Valvetrain Technology Roadmap, North America, 1995–2020

• High-strength steel valves with timing belt synchronisation
Initial VVT Systems
Camphasing,
• Only valve timing possible with additional cam-profile
4–5% CO2 drop
• Camphasing systems to evolve with increased flexibility
Variable Valvetrain Systems Evolution
Camphasing + Electro
• Valve Lift Variation + Camphasing benefits from
Hydraulic Lift (VVA), 8–10%
5% to 10% improvement in emissions and efficiency
CO2 drop, Chain and Belt
over camphasers and the 2 systems combined called
Driven with hydraulic
as Variable Valve Actuation (VVA)
Downsizing Modularisation
control for lift
• BMW’s Vanos + Valvetronic system,
Camphasing + Electro Mechanical
7% to 10% emission reduction, flexibility
VVT Designs to Accommodate Downsizing
Shaft, 8–12% CO2 drop, Chain

to support downsizing trend for
Driven, composite coating for
different segments
valves and other peripherals
Camp.+ Shifting Camlobe + Electrically adjusted Cam-lobes to

Elect. Actuation, 7–12% CO2 provide Valvelift and Duration Control,
drop, DLC Coatings for with Cylinder Deactivation. Developed
Pistons, Valves, etc. for downsizing requirements
Fully Electro Hydraulic System, 8–15%
• Fiat’s MultiAir system is state-
CO2 drop, it achieved significant
of-the-art, with fully variable
breakthroughs in low costs and component
electrohydraulic actuation
standardisation
control cylinder-by-cylinder
• Flexibility of secondary valve • Not in production due to high actuation Camless
lifts at partial loads and 50% power and slow responsiveness Electro-
downsizing for mass market • May bring significant emission benefits magnetic Act.,
powertrain systems, potential for due to complete crank independent expected 10% to
diesel VVT system actuation design 20% CO2 drop
1995 2010 2020

Key: DLC = Diamond-like Carbon Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 35
Drivers and Restraints—Total Powertrain Market
Return to contents
MA37-18 36
Demand Analysis—Drivers and Restraints
Fuel economy, emission norms, and transforming consumer demands will bring added momentum in
powertrain optimization, while the inability to pass development costs to the consumer will challenge its pace.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Market Drivers and Restraints, North America, 2014–2020
Emission and fuel Portfolio skew

economy norms Consumer preferences towards smaller OEM powertrain Innovation-
and dynamics cars augmentation conducive
Drivers
environment
Drivers
Restraints
Restraints
Compliance-time
Pressure on OEM Supply chain
shortfall
margins unpreparedness
Denotes current impact
Denotes long-term impact Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 37
Market Drivers
The 54.5 mpg target for 2025 requires more frequent powertrain fuel efficiency refreshments, while consumer
preferences will demand the deployment of performance-enhancement technologies in smaller vehicles.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Market Drivers, North America, 2014–2020
Drivers 1–2 Years 3–4 Years 5–7 Years
Emission and fuel economy norms H H H
Consumer preferences and dynamics H H M
Portfolio skew towards smaller cars M H H
OEM powertrain augmentation M M H
Innovation-conducive environment M M M
Impact Ratings: H = High, M = Medium, L = Low

MA37-18 38
Drivers Explained
The steep ascent of fuel efficiency targets and the consequent expansion of compact and subcompact
vehicles, growing annually at 4.8%, will be the key drivers to powertrain optimization.
Emission and Fuel Economy Norms:
Fleet targets for fuel economy, greenhouse gases, and ZEV mandates will be the most dominant factors
that define the powertrain road map for the next decade and beyond. The fleet average of 54.5 mpg, which
is set for 2025, would mean that a target of 46 to 48 mpg must be met by 2020. This would require
significant efficiency improvements in boosting and injection systems, combustion optimization systems,
and calls for the increased electrification of powertrains.
Consumer Preferences and Dynamics:
Driver preferences in terms of drivability, fuel economy, and ownership costs will continue to optimize
powertrain technologies. Consumers’ expectations will go up in terms of fuel efficiency while being unwilling
to compromise on performance. Addressing this challenge will essentially involve advanced boosting and
energy recovery systems.
Portfolio Skew towards Smaller Cars:
The subcompact and compact segments will grow at 4.8% annually, outpacing the growth of midsize and
large vehicles. Packaging these vehicles with features that provide a pleasurable driving experience and
make customers return to the brand for subsequent purchases, will sustain the powertrain development
momentum.
MA37-18 39
Drivers Explained (continued)
Multiple propulsion options in the same models to address different user segments will broaden and strengthen
powertrain portfolios. The strive for an “innovator” brand image will also bolster new innovations in powertrains.
OEM Powertrain Augmentation:
Multiple powertrain options in the same vehicle models will emerge as a key selling point to customers who
want, simultaneously, to be eco-friendly and to take advantage of the market’s most popular models, for
example, Ford’s “Power of Choice” strategy. This will lead to increased expertise in alternative powertrains
apart from conventional gasoline ones.
Innovation-conducive Environment:
The pro-innovation climate has accelerated research and development (R&D) spend among top OEMs,
and R&D spending has been growing at steady pace following the economic recovery after the 2008
recession. OEMs’ attempts to be the “first in the market” with a particular technology is also pushing up the
number of patents filed year-on-year. This will continue to be a strong force as a majority consumers prefer
their car to be the product of a company known for its innovation.
MA37-18 40
Market Restraints
Questions of profitability will increasingly arise for innovative fuel-saving technologies as consumers will be
unwilling to pay extra for them, being unsure of the drivability improvements they will offer.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Market Restraints, North America, 2014–2020
Restraints 1–2 Years 3–4 Years 5–7 Years
Pressure on OEM margins H H M
Compliance-time shortfall H M M
Supply chain unpreparedness H M M
Impact Ratings: H = High, M = Medium, L = Low
MA37-18 41
Restraints Explained
Reducing the impact of powertrain technology development on the upfront purchase costs of a vehicle will be
the key challenge; consequently, OEMs’ margins are expected to shrink in the short and medium terms.
Pressure on OEM Margins:
On average, every percentage of fuel savings obtained costs between $100 and $150 for the technology
deployed. A migration from 36 mpg to 48 mpg by 2020 means that a compact car costs approximately
$3,500 more than the current cost trends. In the medium term, it will not be easy for OEMs to pass on these
development costs to consumers, which will create immense pressure on their margins.
Compliance-time Shortfall:
The 2020 and 2025 targets demand an unprecedented pace in fuel efficiency improvements—equivalent to
2 to 2.5 mpg every year—and a clear roadmap of technologies to be deployed is yet to be plotted among
the OEMs. This causes the focus to diverge on many powertrain alternatives. While it may work to the
advantage of some, others may see stagnation.
Supply Chain Unpreparedness:
Supplier-driven innovation will continue to be prominent in the industry, alongside OEM innovation.
However, the lack of absolute coordination of these innovation paths towards meeting common targets will
continue to pose challenges to powertrain development. In addition, the automotive supply chain model will
require a more futuristic and structured approach to cater to fluctuating demands of the market.
MA37-18 42
Forecasts and Trends—Total Powertrain Market
Return to contents
MA37-18 43
Market Engineering Measurements
Downsizing, complemented with boosting trends, will remain paramount factors for meeting fuel-economy
compliance towards 2020. Unit shipments for engines below 2.5L to grow by 3.5%, outpacing industry growth.
Total Powertrain Market: Market Engineering Measurements, North America, 2013
Market Overview
Measurement Name Measurement Trend
Market Stage Growth —

Downsizing Trend (CAGR of 1L–2.5L engines 2013–2020) 3.5% —
Market Units/Volume (2013) 18.0–18.5 M ▲
Boosting (CAGR of boosted engines 2013–2020) 8.7% —
Market Size at End of Forecast Period (2020) 20.5–21.0 M ▲
Base Year Market Growth Rate 7.4% ▲
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), 2013–2020 1.8% —
Market Concentration (% of base year market controlled by top 3 competitors) 44.5% ▼
Number of Competitors (active market competitors in base year) >25 ●
Decreasing Stable Increasing
TREND
▼ ● ▲
MA37-18 44
Market Breakdown by Vehicle Segment
Gasoline engines will continue to dominate, with advancements in injection and combustion technologies,
however clean diesel technologies will see steady growth, too.
Total Powertrain Market: Market Breakdown by Vehicle

7 Segment and Fuel Types, North America, 2013 and 2020 Unit Shipments,
Unit Shipments, 6.4 M 20.5–21.0 Million
18.0–18.5 Million
6
15.5% 14.0%
17.9%
Vehicle Shipments (Million)
18.8%
4 3.6 M
3.4 M
25.5% 2.8 M
3 71.2% 47.3%
24.0%
2 71.6%
1.5 M 85.7%
75.6% 78.8%
1.0 M 42.5%
1 0.7 M
98.9% 36.7% 0.6 M
0.5 M
8.8%
57.9% 31.5%
60.0% 74.3%
0
B-Sub C- D- Midsize E-Large G- Sports MPV P-Pickup SUV Van
compact Compact
6.3%
2.0%
Diesel Electrified Gasoline CNG Gasoline- FFV 8.0%
4.5%
2013 2020
The graph in the center represents data for 2020. The segments with less significant shipments have been excluded.
MA37-18 45
Competitive Environment
Joint regulations from the EPA and CARB will optimize internal combustion technologies and develop new
alternative propulsion methods. Technology alliances will be symbiotic and pivotal for technology advancement.
Total Powertrain Market: Competitive Structure, North America, 2013
Number of Companies in the Market More than 25 automobile manufacturers
Competitive Factors Cost, performance, technology, fuel economy,

maintenance, emission control
Regulatory environment Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National

Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),
California Air Resources Board (CARB)
Major Market Participants General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Hyundai, Honda
Market Share of Top 5 Competitors (2013) 67.6%
Other Notable Market Participants Renault-Nissan, BMW, VW
Key technology trends Engine downsizing with boosting, direct injection,

alternative propulsion
Notable Technology Alliances/Joint Renault–Nissan & Daimler, General Motors & Ford
Ventures
MA37-18 46
OEMs Tech Share Analysis—Gasoline Direct Injection
Direct injection technologies with higher injection pressure and multiple injectors will be deployed to enable
advanced combustion strategies for improved fuel economy and torque characteristics.
Total Powertrain Market: Market Share of Total Powertrain Market: Market Share of
Gasoline Direct Injection, North America, 2013 Gasoline Direct Injection, North America, 2020
Others
Others
12%
12% Ford
Ford
VW 28% 23%
5% BMW Group
4%
Chrysler
5%
Hyundai
11%
VW
12%
Honda General Hyundai

21% Motors 9% General Motors
24% 25%
Honda
11%
Others for 2013 include Daimler, Renault-Nissan, BMW, Chrysler, Toyota, and other smaller OEMs.
Others for 2020 include Toyota, Daimler, Renault-Nissan, and other smaller OEMs.
MA37-18 47
OEMs Tech Share Analysis—Engine Boost
American and European OEMs will grow their boosted engines at steady rates, while Japanese and Korean
manufacturers will aggressively deploy boosting technologies in their fleets.
Total Powertrain Market: Market Share of Total Powertrain Market: Market Share of
Turbocharging, 2013 Turbocharging, 2020
Others
Others BMW 3%
BMW 5% Ford
Ford 7%
8% 20%
22%
VW VW
9% 13%
GM
GM 14%
13%
Chrysler
4% Hyundai
22%
Toyota Chrysler
Hyundai
1% 7%
29% Renault- Honda
Nissan 1% Toyota
8% 8%
Renault-Nissan
5%
Others for 2013 include Daimler, Honda, and other smaller OEMs.
Others for 2020 include Daimler and other smaller OEMs.
MA37-18 48
OEM Profiles and Fuel Economy Outlook
Return to contents
MA37-18 49
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—BMW Group
Intelligent systems in engines and transmissions will help improve fuel savings in the medium term. A high
degree of modularity will also be achieved to reduce cost and to downsize powertrains.
Powertrain Market: BMW Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
Scenario at BMW, North
BMW will continue to focus on downsizing with the new class of
3-cylinder B38 engine, increasingly penetrating into its smaller America, 2013 and 2020
Downsizing fleet and electrified powertrains. However, direct-injected, twin-
boosted, inline, 6-cylinder engines will also grow towards 2020 55.5–
(or by 10% YoY), powering most of its high volume models. 57.5%
53.5%
Multiple driving modes that anticipate driving patterns based on
Intelligence the intelligence provided by navigation systems will be key
and fuel technologies leveraged in BMW vehicles to achieve fuel savings
savings of up to 20%. Exhaust energy recovery will also be used to
bring down fuel consumption levels. 4.5–
5.5%
For improved fuel savings in larger engines, BMW will further
refine its variable valve timing and variable lift (Valvetronic)
Valve train technology instead of active cylinder shut off, as the former is 46.5% 37.0–
39.0%
more dynamic and responsive to broad range of daily driving
conditions.
The third-generation 6- and 8-speed planetary automatics will 2013 2020
Transmission be deployed in front-wheel drive vehicles with boosted engines, IC Only Gasoline Hybrids and Electrics
technologies for narrower gear splits. They will also facilitate stop-starts and
IC Only diesel
coasting, further bringing down fuel consumption.
The BMW ‘EfficientDynamics’ principle will govern the fuel-efficiency improvement programs in its
Lightweighting powertrain portfolio. Modern magnesium alloys save up to 24% of weight and enables reduced fuel
and modularity consumption. Furthermore, 60% of parts will be identical among engines that use same fuel, and there
will be a 40% commonality between diesel and gasoline powered engines.
Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 50
Compliance Roadmap—BMW Group
Advanced direct injection technologies, variable valve timing and lift, predictive drive train management, and
advanced automatics will improve fuel economy compliance towards 2020.
Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for BMW, North America, 2012–2020 41.0
Downsizing Valvetronic technology 40.0

Predictive drivetrain
40 management 39.0
Average Fuel Economy (mpg)
40.1
Exhaust heat recovery 39.2
Variable valve timing 37.8 38.9

38
37.9
37.0 37.9
Powertrain lightweighting
Direct injection
36 (Piezo and Solenoid) 35.9
35.0
35.6
34.5
34 Third-generation Automatics
Powertrain
33.4 Fuel cell
electrification 33.7 technologies
31.6
32 31.3 Active transmission
31.0
disengagement
Automatic Stop-starts
30 30.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BMW Group Conservative Scenario BMW Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
BMW Group Optimistic Scenario BMW Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at BMW in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take BMW to the shown
levels of compliance in 2020. Other power train and vehicle level technology changes, if brought about, will enable further improvement in CAFÉ levels.
MA37-18 51
Key Powertrain Trends for BMW Group—Complete Portfolio
Clean diesel technologies, with more fine-tuning, and pure electrics will be the key for hitting the mpg targets.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for BMW, North America, 2013–2020

Powertrain Valve Train Architecture and Fuel Engine Off-cycle
Electrification Cam Timing Injection boost technologies
0.6 Downsizing
100% 100% 100%
95%
87%
0.5
0.4 60%
0.3 45% 45%
0.2
0.1 5% 0%
Direct Injections
SOHC
DOHC
VCT
TC
Stop-Starts
IC Engines
3&4 cylinder engines

Electrified powertrain
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
Key: IC = Internal Combustion; SOHC = Single Overhead Cam; DOHC = Dual Overhead Cam; VCT = Variable Cam Timing; TC = Turbocharge Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 52
Technology Penetration Intensity—BMW Group
Alongside advanced valve timing systems, BMW will also focus on intelligent systems that manage drivetrains
to follow an energy-on-demand approach. Stop-starts and advanced automatics will also play key roles.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios BMW, North America, 2020
Engine downsizing and boosting
Gasoline Direct Injection

Optimistic
Valvetronic system (with eccentric
shaft) Frost & Sullivan
Common Rail Direct Injection
Conservative
Predictive drivetrain management
Auto Stop-start
Active transmission disengagement
Third-gen 6/8-speed automatics
Exhaust heat recovery
Alternative propulsion (Fuel Cells)
Lightweighting (Mg alloys in

powertrain)
Powertrain electrification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel-saving Penetration into Vehicles
technologies at BMW, by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 53
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Chrysler Group
MultiAir technologies will improve fuel economy levels in gasoline engines while diesel engines will see growth
with MultiJet technologies, advanced boosting, and after treatment technologies.
Powertrain Market: Chrysler Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
The MultiAir (I& II) technology will drive compliance in many Scenario at Chrysler,
Chrysler engines including 2.0L, 2.4L, 3.2L, 3.6L, and V6 North America, 2013 and 2020
Gasoline Pentastar engines. Apart from these, direct injection with lean- 1.4–
outlook burn strategies, combustion efficiency improvements, and exhaust 13.0– 2.4%
22.2%
heat recovery will be focus areas. MulitiAir III technology will be 14.0%
targeted in the long term.
Diesel engines will grow by more than 10% annually from 2013 to
2020. Diesel technologies will have MultiJet II as the key driver for
Diesel 69.5–
fuel economy and performance, along with advanced boosting
outlook systems, advanced after treatment, improved combustion, and 71.3%
71.0%
friction reduction technologies.

Pentastar engines will be the key for driving fuel economy and
performance in larger engines (e.g., in midsize to full size
Larger
commercial vans). The flexible architecture will enable easy 14.6–
engines integration of advanced boosting, injection, and transmission 6.2% 15.6%
technologies.
2013 2020
Fiat will complement its advanced automatics with existing 6-
Transmission speed dry DCTs in 2.0L to 3.0L engines. It will also develop 7- CNG Hybrids and Electrics
technologies speed DCT and other optimized transmissions in hybrids for FFV- IC only Gasoline IC only
improved transmission efficiency and to give superior drivability. Diesel IC only
Alternative Fiat will focus highly on battery electrics, after the Fiat 500e boosts fuel efficiency levels in its fleet. The
development of high-capacity batteries that give increased ranges and vehicle-to-grid facilities will be
fuels and priorities. CNG and multi-fuel engines will also see progress in terms advanced injection and boosting
propulsion systems.
Key: FFV = Flex Fuel Vehicles Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 54
Compliance Roadmap—Chrysler Group
Combined with combustion efficiency improvements, advanced boosting integration systems and variable
compression ratios will be necessary for improving fuel economy and performance in the long term.
Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Chrysler, North America, 2012–2020
37.2
37 Downsizing Energy Recovery
Lean burn strategies 36.1 36.6
Variable cam timing
and lift (Intake)

Powertrain 35.2 36.1
electrification
35 35.1
34.3 35.0
Advanced Automatics
Dual VCT 33.4 34.4
34.1
33 33.5
Cylinder deactivation 33.0
31.5 32.6
31.8 Innovative engine
31 Direct injection 31.6 control management
29.6 30.7 Combustion efficiency

Smart boosting
28.9 improvements
integration systems
29 28.5 28.6 30.0
28.6 Variable Extra-cooled

27.6 Stop-starts compression ratios EGR
28.1
27
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chrysler Group Conservative Scenario Chrysler Group Frost & Sulivan Scenario
Chrysler Group Optimistic Scenario Chrysler Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Chrysler in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines
that separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Chrysler to the
shown levels of compliance in 2020. Other power train and vehicle level technology changes, if brought about, will enable further improvement in CAFÉ
levels. Source: NHTSA; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 55
Key Powertrain Trends for Chrysler Group—Complete Portfolio
Fiat engines will see better air management strategies mostly through MultiAir technology and intercooling in
turbochargers. Thermal management and energy recovery systems will be relied on extensively for fuel savings.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Chrysler, North America, 2013–2020

Off-cycle
Valve Train Architecture Fuel
Powertrain technologies
Downsizing and Cam Timing Injection Engine
Electrification
boost
2.5 98%
2 75%
69% 67%
1.5
1 31% 32% 30%

21%
18%
0.5
2%
0
OHV
VCT
Direct Injections
DOHC
TC
Stop-Starts
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
Key: IC = Internal Combustion; OHV= Overhead Valve; DOHC = Dual Overhead Cam; VCT = Variable Cam Timing; TC = Turbocharge Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 56
Technology Penetration Intensity—Chrysler
Direct injection technologies will have the biggest role in taking fuel economy numbers forward. Variable lifts
and compression ratios will also enable advanced combustion strategies.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Chrysler, North America, 2020
Engine Downsizing and Boosting
Dual VCT
Electro Hydraulic Valve Actuation
Variable Compression Ratios
Direct Injection
Lean Burn Strategy
Combustion Efficiency Improvements
Innovative Engine Control Nanagement Optimistic

Smart Boosting Integration Systems Frost & Sullivan
Cylinder Deactivation systems Conservative
Energy Recovery Systems
Cooled EGR
Stop-starts
Advanced Automatics (6,8,9 speeds)
Powertrain Electrification
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Penetration into Vehicles
The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel-saving
technologies at Chrysler, by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 57
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Daimler Group
Higher displacement engines will remain inseparable to Daimler powertrains, while smaller engines and
alternative propulsion techniques will also emerge to improve the overall fleet fuel economy levels.
Powertrain Market: Daimler Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
Mercedes-Benz cars will continue to have their larger displacement Scenario at Daimler,
flagship models in the offering, while the proportion of 4-cylinder North America, 2013 and 2020
Downsized engines will rise from the current levels of 12–15% to 30–35% by 0.5–
engines 2020. Three-cylinder engines will also have to be added to the 1.0%
portfolio to compensate for bigger engines in the long term.
50.0–
51.0% 60.0–
Gasoline engines will see high-pressure 3rd and 4th generation 62.0%
direct injection, stratified charge combustion, and optimized fuel
Gasoline
intake in V6 and V8 engines. These will further be deployed in
outlook smaller engines in the long term to improve energy efficiency
across the portfolio.
Daimler will continue to leverage its diesel technology
advancements, with enhanced energy efficiency. Torque level 49.0– 36.5–
Diesel 50.0% 38.5%
improvements will be made with variable vane turbochargers and
outlook other advanced boosting systems, while high-efficiency diesel
exhaust fluids will keep the NOx levels near compliance.
Higher speed ratios and lower engine RPMs in each gear will be
2013 2020
the strategy to improve torque transmission, drivability, and fuel
Transmission EV/Alternative Fuels
economy. Nine-speed automatics with multiple driving modes will Hybrid
strategy be deployed in rear-wheel drive and all-wheel drive cars, coupled Diesel
with centrifugal torsional dampers. Gasoline
Hydrogen fuel cell driven cars will be seen towards 2017 to 2020 and will play a significant role in moving
Alternative fuel economy closer to compliance levels. Three-cylinder gasoline hybrids, will be needed to progress on
propulsion CAFÉ credits, with utilities such as wireless charging to simultaneously increase their value proposition.
MA37-18 58
Compliance Roadmap—Daimler Group
Smaller engines (below 2.5L) will gain prominence in the second half of the decade. Higher speed automatics
and stop-starts will also play a key role in bringing down fuel consumption levels by 2020.
41 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Daimler, North America, 2012–2020
High-Pressure Direct Intelligent Alternator Downsized Engines

39
Injection management
36.8 38.4
37.6
37 Stop-Starts 36.3
Variable Valve Events
35.8 35.5 35.8
34.7 34.7
35 34.8
34.1 34.9
Powertrain
33.7 33.4
Electrification
34.3
32.4 32.6 33.8
33 32.0
33.2 Electronically controlled
32.6
Fuel Cell turbo waste gates
31.0 technologies
31 30.2 31.7
Variable
displacement oil and
30.2
fuel pumps 30.2 9-speed Automatics, Regenerative Breaking
29 Low friction
28.2 29.1 Advanced DCTs
bearings
27
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Daimler Group Conservative Scenario Daimler Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Daimler Group Optimistic Scenario Daimler Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Daimler in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines
that separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Daimler to the
MA37-18 59
Key Powertrain Trends for Daimler Group—Complete Portfolio
IC engines will remain fundamental to Daimler’s powertrain philosophy. The share of smaller engines will
increase, while injection and boosting systems will see higher optimization to improve fuel efficiency and output.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Daimler, North America, 2013–2020

Powertrain Valve Train Architecture Fuel Engine
Electrification and Cam Timing Injection boost
Off-cycle
98% 100% 100% 96%
93% technologies
0.5
Low
Displacement
0.4
Engines
52%
0.3
36% 36%
0.2
0.1 2% 0%
Direct Injections
SOHC
DOHC
Continous VCT
TC
Stop-Starts
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
MA37-18 60
Technology Penetration Intensity—Daimler Group
Smaller engines will increase in proportion by about 35% over 2013 levels by 2020. High-pressure direct
injection systems, stop-starts, and intelligent energy management to be largely relied on.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Daimler, North America, 2020
Downsized engines
High-pressure/Piezzo electric direct injection
Variable valve lift and swirl control
Electronically controlled turbo waste gates Optimistic
Frost & Sullivan

Intelligent Alternator Management-Heat Storage and Reuse
Conservative
Variable displacement fuel and oil pumps
Low friction bearings
Stop-starts
Regenerative braking
7-speed/9-speed Automatics
Alternative propulsion
(10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel saving-technologies
at Daimler by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 61
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Ford Motor Company
Ford’s EcoBoost engines, with a high focus on new combustion strategies, will be its key enabler to hit fuel
economy targets, while powertrain electrification will see significant momentum, too.
Powertrain Market: Propulsion

Powertrain Market: Ford Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Scenario at Ford,
North America, 2013 and 2020
Downsized, turbo-charged, and direct-injected EcoBoost
The EcoBoost engines will play a paramount role in Ford’s compliance 27.0–
strategy and, moreover, will be the most important value 32.9% 29.0%
Proposition
proposition to consumers. 1.5–
1.2% 3.0%
The share of 3&4 cylinder engines and engines below 2.5L will
Downsizing increase from the current level of 46% to 57% by 2020.
58.1% 56.0–
58.0%
Plug-in hybrids and full hybrids will grow at about 9% YoY from
Powertrain
2013 to 2020, doubling their share in the fleet during this time
electrification frame. 2.5–
3.0%
Ford will continue to use stoichiometric, wall-guided injection
1.5% 11.2%
engines with minimal impact on existing engine architectures. 11–12%
Combustion However, in the long term, lean-burn engines with spray-guided
6.2%
strategies injection systems and reduced NOx emissions will also be 2013 2020
increasingly used to bring down fuel consumption. IC Only- Diesel BEV
FHEV IC Only- Gasoline
PHEV FFV
Although diesel engines will continue to take a back seat at Ford—being restricted to pick ups and
Diesel
vans—the company aims to take full advantage of its diesel expertise in Europe, as it estimates that
outlook there will be a growing preference for diesel in the American passenger car segment.
Ford’s powertrain development will be driven by the “Power of Choice,” a strategy that will increase its
Powertrain technology expertise in all powertrain types. This will also take emissions and fuel economy to compliant
diversification levels, simultaneously adding increased value to consumers.
For a list of abbreviations please click here. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 62
Compliance Roadmap—Ford Motor Company
A larger penetration of advanced combustion and lean burn strategies combined with advancements in
automatic transmission will put Ford in an advantageous position in fleet fuel economy levels.
41 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Ford, North America, 2012–2020
40.2
Advanced dilute
Downsizing Assisted direct start 39.6
combustion 38.8
38.7
38.0 38.7
38 Solenoid direct-injection
37.0 38.2
Advanced ignition
systems 37.0
37.5
Cooled EGR 35.6 36.5

36.3 35.9
Ti-Variable cam timing
35 35.5 Active boosting
34.8 Advanced cooling
Powertrain electrification systems with active
34.6 waste gates systems
32.7 33.9
32.4 33.3
31.7 Active turbo
32 32.1 compounding for
Advanced lean energy recovery
burning Advanced after-
30.9 treatment systems
30.1 Spray-guided direct Advanced 9/10-
Compact roller finger
29.9 injection speed automatics
follower systems
29
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ford Group Conservative Scenario Ford Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Ford Group Optimistic Scenario Ford group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Ford in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Ford to the shown
MA37-18 63
Key Powertrain Trends for Ford Motor Company—Complete Portfolio
Electrified powertrains will see a spike in market share and smaller engines will gain dominance, spinning off
growth in turbo-boosted and direct injection engines. Stop-starts will be a key focus at FORD.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Ford, North America, 2013–2020

Off-cycle
Downsizing and Cam Timing Injection Engine
Electrification
boost
3.0 94%
89%
79%
2.5
61%
2.0 58% 58% 45%
52%
1.5
1.0
11%
0.5 6%
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
MA37-18 64
Technology Penetration Intensity—Ford Motor Company
Stop-starts will be a high focus area and will cover large proportions of the fleet by 2020. Advanced, high-speed
automatic transmissions and lean-burn technologies also will have a significant role to play.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Ford, North America, 2020
Variable cam timing (Ti VCT)

Optimistic
Spray-guided injection systems Frost & Sullivan
Advanced ignition systems Conservative
Lean-burn strategy
Advanced cooling systems
Turbo compounding/active waste gates
Advanced aftertreatment
Assisted-directed stop-starts
Advanced 9/10-speed automatics
-5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85%

technologies at Ford by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 65
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—General Motors
Reducing fuel consumption levels of larger engines, such as V8s, and improving the proportion of fuel-efficient
smaller engines will be of high focus. Range improvement in batteries will propel the growth of electric vehicles.
Powertrain Market: GM Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion

Scenario at GM, North America,
Smaller engines—1 liter, 3 cylinder to 1.5 liter, and inline 4 2013 and 2020
Smaller cylinder—will increase their shares in GM’s fleet to meet fuel
engines economy requirements. By 2017, GM plans to double the sales
of its cars that clock 40 mpg or more in fuel economy. 31.5–
40.4% 33.0%
Modularity/ The new family of engines will see a large proportion of common
components such as aluminum cylinder blocks and heads as
engine
part of improving modularity and reducing costs.
architecture
GM will have more PHEVs in its portfolio to meet increasing mpg 53.0–
53.8% 55.0%
requirements, offered at higher ranges and lower prices than its
Electrified
existing models. Batteries will see continuous improvements in
powertrains terms of ranges and thermal characteristics.
4.0–
5.0%
Larger engines will increasingly feature a cylinder shut-off 1.8% 4.0% 9.0–10%
feature during low torque driving conditions and 75% of all V8
Optimizing engines will feature cylinder deactivation by 2020. V6 engines 2013 2020
large engines will also find an increasing share of engines with variable IC Only Diesel Electrified
displacement (5% in 2013 to 16% by 2020). IC only Gasoline FFV- IC only
Larger engines/vehicles will see the increased deployment of CO2 reduction technologies, while higher
Powertrain mpg vehicles will see increased refreshments in their mpg levels. Electrified powertrains will be relied upon
refreshment for the overall boost in fleet mpg levels. However, conventional technologies that justify their deployment in
terms of cost and fuel savings will continue to be used to mitigate the risk of low ZEV sales.
MA37-18 66
Compliance Roadmap—General Motors
Lean combustion and improved thermal management will be seen in the medium term, while stop-starts,
advanced automatic transmissions, and lightweighting will improve fuel economy levels in the short term.
39 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for GM, North America, 2012–2020
Active Fuel Advanced/Lean Expansion of high
Management dilute combustion mpg segments
37
36.1
35.9
35.2
Direct injection Energy saving oil 34.7 35.6
35 pumps 34.4
34.6 34.8
33.7
32.8 34.1
Variable valve timing
33 33.4
32.0 32.2
Powertrain
31.6
Powertrain 31.9 32.3 lightweighting
31 electrification
31.3 Piston cooling jets
Stop-starts
31.1
30.0
29 28.1
28.4 Advanced 9/10-
Improved thermal speed automatics Advanced after treatment
28.5 management
27.9
27
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
General Motors Conservative Scenario General Motors Frost & Sullivan Scenario
General Motors Optimistic Scenario General Motors average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at GM in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take GM to the shown
MA37-18 67
Key Powertrain Trends for GM—Complete Portfolio
Conventional, cost-effective technologies will continue to play a big role in GM’s portfolio. VCTs and direct
injection will keep the miles per gallon on track and smaller (3&4 cylinder) engines will gain dominance.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for GM, North America, 2013–2020
Powertrain Off-cycle
Downsizing Valve Train Architecture Fuel Engine
Electrification technologies
and Cam Timing Injection boost
4.0 96% 93%
3.5
3.0 64% 70%
2.5
2.0 40% 40%
30% 33%
1.5 27%
1.0
4%
0.5
0.0
OHV
VCT
Direct Injections
DOHC
TC
Stop-Starts
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
Key: IC = Internal Combustion; OHV= Overhead Valve; DOHC = Dual Overhead Cam; VCT = Variable Cam Timing; TC = Turbocharge Source: Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 68
Technology Penetration Intensity—General Motors
Fuel economy of the fleet will be improved by downsizing midsize engines and through cylinder deactivation in
large engines. High fuel-economy segments will also be largely expanded to improve average levels.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for GM, North America, 2020
Direct injection
Advanced/Lean dilute combustion
Thermal management
improvements
Cylinder deactivation
Optimistic
Advanced aftertreatment
Frost & Sullivan
Energy saving oil pumps, piston Conservative
cooling jets
Stop-starts
Advanced 9/10-speed automatics
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel-saving
technologies at GM by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 69
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Honda Motor Company
Downsized, boosted engines will begin to penetrate Honda powertrains, while diesel and fuel-cell technologies
will also see unprecedented growth in the long term.
Powertrain Market: Honda Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
Honda’s powertrain portfolio will include a new series of 1.0L,
scenario at Honda,
1.5L, and 1.8L engines to reduce fuel consumption. The 1.5L North America, 2013 and 2020
Engine engines will likely replace 1.8L engines. The sub-2.0L engines
downsizing are expected to grow by over 10% in Honda’s line-up towards 0.7% 7.0–
8.0%
2020. Three-cylinder engines will follow by the end of decade.
Honda engines will embrace more boosting technologies to

complement its downsized engines with power and
Boosting 90.0–
performance. Through this, Honda plans to achieve about 15%
scenario better fuel efficiency and more than 40% better torque 99.3% 91.0%
compared to larger baseline engines that are being downsized.
Valve timing Valve-timing and lift-control technologies (i-VTEC) will continue to

drive fuel economy and performance, with increased intelligence.
and direct In the medium term, Honda will also increase the penetration of
injection direct injected engines (2.0L turbo) in the coming years. 2.0–
3.0%
Cars powered by 4-cylinder engines will use CVTs to replace
manual and automatic transmissions in up to midsize cars.
Transmission 2013 2020
Seven- and 8-speed DCTs, combined with torque converters, Electrified powertrains
technologies will enhance the driving experience in 2.0L to 3.0L engines. Gasoline IC only
Larger engines will continue to have automatic transmissions. Diesel IC only
Diesels and Clean, lean-burn diesel engines will start making a foray into Honda’s powertrains in the medium term.
alternative The hybrid proposition will see increased electrification from Integrated Motor Assist to two-motor, plug-in
hybrids (Accord hybrid). This will be seen in multiple models, boosting fuel economy and performance.
propulsion
MA37-18 70
Compliance Roadmap—Honda Motor Company
CVTs will be increasingly replaced by 7/8-speed DCTs, while downsized, boosted engines will keep the fuel
economy levels on track.
49 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Honda, North America, 2012–2020
Direct injection Reduced engine friction
47 Powertrain 46.3
electrification 45.1 45.6

45 Advanced CVTs 43.9
44.8
42.7
43 41.6 43.7
and lift 42.6
41 40.2 40.6
41.4
40.3
39 39.1
39.2
37.2
36.6 Fuel cell
37 37.6
propulsion
37.2 36.2
35 35.6 Homogeneous lean-
34.9 7,8-speed DCTs
Engine 32.5 charge spark ignition
33 Downsizing 33.5
31.7
Automatic
32.2 Variable cylinder
31 stop-starts
management
29
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Honda Conservative Scenario Honda Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Honda Optimistic Scenario Honda average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Honda in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Honda to the shown
MA37-18 71
Key Powertrain Trends for Honda—Complete Portfolio
Better intake efficiencies with i-VTEC technologies, lighter engines, direct injections, and reduced friction will
enhance fuel economy and output. Twin-motor technologies will drive hybrid technology momentum.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Honda, North America, 2013–2020

Fuel Off-cycle
Valve Train Architecture technologies
Powertrain Injection Engine
and Cam Timing
Electrification boost
Downsizing
2.5
100%
93%
2.0
72%
1.5 58%
40% 42% 40%

1.0 37%
0.5 7%
2%
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020

MA37-18 72
Technology Penetration Intensity—Honda Motor Company
Variable valve timing and lift systems will see growth of more than 50% over 2013 levels. Electrified powertrains
will see as high as 10% growth over current levels, and fuel-cell technologies will also see significant focus.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Honda, North America, 2020
Engine downsizing
Variable valve timing and lift
Direct injection
Reduced engine friction technologies
Variable cylinder management
Continuous variable transmissions

(advanced) Optimistic
7/8-speed dual clutch transmission Frost & Sullivan
Conservative
Stop-starts
Alternative propulsion (CNG and Fuel

cells)
Homogeneous lean charge spark
ignition
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

technologies at Honda by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 73
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Hyundai Group
Downsizing, direct injection, and hybrid powertrains will be fundamental to Hyundai’s powertrain philosophy in
the long term.
Powertrain Market: Hyundai Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
Smaller displacement engines will be the most significant driver Scenario at Hyundai,
in the fuel economy race for Hyundai. The Gamma engines North America, 2013 and 2020
Engine 0.2–1.0%
(1.4L and 1.6L) and Nu engines (1.6 to 2.0L) will power the
downsizing subcompact and compact vehicles, with continuous
3.6%
5.5–
improvements in fuel-efficient technologies. 6.5%
Gasoline direct injection will be used across nearly 75% of the

Direct fleet by 2020 for fuel efficiency and torque improvements. Cost-
effectiveness of the systems will be ensured by supporting 96.4% 93.0–
injection technologies that include advanced combustion and injection 94.0%
strategy strategies, to reduce the costs for catalytic converters and
emission control systems.
Turbo-charging will penetrate into more than 80% of engines by
2020 to avoid compromise on performance while downsizing.
Boosting
Single-stage turbo chargers will continue to be replaced by twin-
scenario scroll turbo chargers for the SUV and sports segments for
improved performance characteristics.
Increasing requirements of torque and fuel economy will make 2013 2020
Transmission advanced DCTs play a bigger role in powertrains. Currently, Alternative propulsion
technologies available in the Veloster coupe, it will broaden its scope to other Partial and Full Hybrids
segments, too, for better drivability and ensuring compliance. IC only gasoline
Hybrids will remain fundamental to Hyundai’s green propulsion and Blue Drive strategy. For improved
Alternative
drivability, hybrid powertrains will have more powerful ICEs, such as the Sonata Eco, drifting away from
propulsion conventional Atkinson cycle engines. Hydrogen fuel cells are expected to pick up volumes towards 2020.
MA37-18 74
Compliance Roadmap—Hyundai Group
Direct-injection systems will see advancements in terms of newer combustion strategies. DCTs will improve
drivability and fuel economy levels in the long term.
Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Hyundai, North America, 2012–2020 48.7
48 Electronic throttle controls 47.9
Dual CVVT 46.8
Downsizing 46.1
46.9
46 Low-friction valve train

and pistons 44.2
Variable valve timing 45.3
44 43.5
Fuel-cell 43.6
technologies
42 Direct injection 43.0
41.8
39.5
40
Advanced DCTs
38 39.0 38.6
38.5 36.8
38.0 Optimum combustion
strategies
36 Powertrain
Gasoline Direct
electrification 35.5 Improved crankshaft alignments
33.9 Injection-
Compression
34
32.5 Automatic Variable air compressor
Stop-starts
32
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Hyundai Group Conservative Scenario Hyundai Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Hyundai Group Optimistic Scenario Hyundai Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Hyundai in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines
that separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Hyundai to the
MA37-18 75
Key Powertrain Trends for Hyundai Group—Complete Portfolio
Gasoline engines will see increasing fine tuning with new injection and ignition strategies. Downsized engines
will drive compliance toward fuel-economy targets while boosting systems will keep drivability on desired levels.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Hyundai, North America, 2013–2020

Powertrain Valve Train Architecture Off-cycle
Fuel technologies
Electrification Downsizing and Cam Timing Engine
Injection
boost
2.0 100% 100%
94% 95% 95%
1.8 88%
1.6
71%
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
25%
0.6
0.4 6%
0%
0.2
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020

MA37-18 76
Technology Penetration Intensity—Hyundai Group
Smaller displacement, direct-injected engines will be key for fuel economy compliance. Friction reduction
technologies and advanced combustion strategies, too, will be leveraged significantly.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Hyundai, North America, 2020
Continuously variable valve timing

(Dual)
Direct injection
Electronic throttle control
Friction reduction (valvetrain & pistons)
Optimized combustion strategies
Variable air compressors (air

conditioner) Optimistic
Improved crankshaft aligments
Frost & Sullivan
Advanced CVTs and DCTs Conservative
Gasoline direct injection compression
(GDCI)
Alternative propulsion (fuel cells)
Stop-starts
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
technologies at Hyundai by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 77
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Renault-Nissan Group
“PURE DRIVE” technologies will continue to improve fuel-economy levels and performance, with duel injectors
and continuously variable valve timing and lift technology.
Powertrain Market, Renault-Nissan Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
“PURE DRIVE” technologies will drive fuel efficiency and Scenario at Renault-Nissan,
emission reduction in smaller ICE-propelled vehicles. The 3- North America, 2013 and 2020
PURE DRIVE cylinder, 1.2L, direct-injected, supercharged engine is capable
technologies of giving practical power output levels with minimal CO2
emissions and will play a benchmarking role for smaller engines 2.2% 1.4–
to come. 2.4%
89.5–
Nissan is continuously improving its “e-Powertrain” with higher 90.5%
capacity batteries. The e-Powertrain also brings in high
Electrified
modularity with motor, inverters, DC convertors, and reduction
powertrains drive all packed in to a compact design. This will be the base of 94.8%
propulsion for subsequent electrics in the medium term.
The dual injector system will smaller droplets, combined with
Valve train continuous variable valve timing control, contribute to improved
and fuel fuel economy by enabling smoother combustion. This will
injection essentially be a part of the sub-2.0L engine family, with Variable 6.0–
Valve Event and Lift technology. 7.0%
1.8%
Advanced Xtronic CVTs with Adaptive Shift Control will be the 2013 2020
key in bringing smooth drivability and improved fuel economy in
Transmission Flex Fuel IC Only Gasoline
transmissions. Xtronic CVT engines will continue to be coupled
technologies with engines up to 3.5L, complemented by advanced friction- Hybrids and Electrics IC Only diesel
reduction technologies.
EV To continue with zero emission technology, Nissan will contribute to laying out fast-charging stations in
infrastructure select corridors in the region, attempting to support the EV proposition from a 360-degree perspective.
MA37-18 78
Compliance Roadmap—Renault-Nissan
Advanced CVTs will improve both fuel economy and drivability, while boosting and injection systems will see
aggressive improvements to push up the fuel economy levels.
47 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Renault-Nissan, North America, 2012–2020
Advanced CVTs
45 Downsizing Supercharging 44.2
Valve train friction 43.4

43.4
43 Direct injection reduction 42.5
41.8
41.2 42.6
40.3 42.0 41.0

41 Powertrain
41.3
electrification
40.6 39.5
39.9
39 Switchable driving modes
Variable valve 39.2
37.1
timing 36.7
37 Advanced EGR
Variable valve event 38.0
37.1 and lift 36.6
35 35.2
Direct injection Homogenous charge

32.6 33.9
33 (Dual Injectors) compression ignition
31.8
31.4 Stop-starts
32.5
31
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Renault-Nissan Conservative Scenario Renault-Nissan Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Renault-Nissan Optimistic Scenario Renault-Nissan average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Renault-Nissan in the indicated time zones. Dotted
lines that separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Renault-
Nissan to the shown levels of compliance in 2020. Other power train and vehicle level technology changes, if brought about, will enable further
improvement in CAFÉ levels. Source: NHTSA; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 79
Key Powertrain Trends for Renault-Nissan—Complete Portfolio
Downsizing will be the key with an increasing share of 3-cylinder engines, continuous VVTs, and stop-starts.
Multiple-battery electric and hybrid models will skew the portfolio towards powertrain electrification.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Renault-Nissan, North America, 2013–2020
Valve Train Architecture Fuel Off-cycle

and Cam Timing Injection Engine
Electrification Downsizing boost
99%
2.0 93%
1.8 83%
1.6
68% 68%
1.4
62%
1.2
1.0 40%
0.8
0.6 19%
0.4 7%
1%
0.2
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
MA37-18 80
Technology Penetration Intensity—Renault-Nissan Group
Direct-injection technologies will see the highest penetration of about 405 to 45% over 2013 levels by 2020.
CVVTs, stop-starts, and advanced EGR technologies also to play a pivotal role.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Renault-Nissan, North America, 2020
Continous variable valve timing
Direct injection
Boosting (Supercharging)
Friction reduction technologies
Switchable drving modes
Stop-starts
Advanced CVTs
Advanced EGR
Homogenous Charge Compression Optimistic

Ignition
Frost & Sullivan
Conservative
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel-saving technologies
at Renault-Nissan by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels.
MA37-18 81
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Toyota Group
Direct-injection and boosting technologies will start finding their way into Toyota engines, while downsizing will
be largely utilized. Battery/fuel-cell technology and research, will also have a high focus.
Powertrain Market: Toyota Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion
Toyota plans to have smaller engines with displacements as low Scenario at Toyota,
as 1.0 liter and 1.3 liter. Furthermore, it plans to make 14 small North America, 2013 and 2020
Downsizing displacement engines by 2014 on a global level, and select
2.0–
2.8%
ones among these which will to be available in the US mass 3.0%
volume market.
Toyota will feature smaller engines with the Atkinson cycle, in
Engine an effort to combine the thermal efficiency improvements made
optimization in hybrid powertrains with the technologies in IC engines and to
80.0–
deploy them in non-hybrid powertrains. 81.0%
93.9%
Toyota will introduce direct injection and turbocharging to boost
Direct efficiency and performance in its downsized engines. The 2.4L,
injection and inline, 4-cylinder engine in the pipeline will be a direct-injected
engine and the upcoming 2.0L engine will feature turbocharging
boosting
and may replace the 3.5L V6 in some midsize sedans.
15.5–
CVTs will be increasingly replaced by 6-speed and 8-speed 3.4% 16.5%
automatics in downsized pick-ups for improved acceleration and
Transmission 2013 2020
fuel economy. Intelligent shift CVTs (“CVTi-S”) will be deployed
technologies in compact and midsize cars, that gives the same shifting IC Only- Diesel Electrified
smoothness of hydraulic automatics. IC Only- Gasoline Flex Fuel
Toyota will augment its hybrid technology with higher capacity batteries. It is also attempting to
Alternative complement them with super capacitors with lesser charging times which are capable of giving quick
propulsion bursts of energy. Hydrogen fuel-cell cars will be available by 2015/2016, initially at higher prices. Toyota
expects increased sales of fuel-cell vehicles when they reach the price level of its hybrids by 2020.
MA37-18 82
Compliance Roadmap—Toyota Group
High-pressure injection systems, higher compression ratios, Atkinson-cycle engines, boosting, and direct
injections systems will aggressively take the Toyota fleet fuel-economy levels forward.
47 Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for Toyota, North America, 2012–2020
Atkinson cycle with expanded VVT 44.6

45 Downsizing High-pressure direct
injection systems 43.6 43.9

43 42.5
43.1
40.6 41.5
Powertrain 41.0
41 42.0
electrification
39.5 41.0
39.5
39 40.1
39.3
37.6 38.0
37.4 38.6 Combustion efficiency
37 improvements
Advanced Automatics,
36.7 CVTs 36.6
35 35.3 Large-volume cooled EGR
33.9
33 32.1 Higher compression ratios Alternative propulsion/
31.5 Stop-starts fuel cells
32.6
31
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Toyota Group Conservative Scenario Toyota Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Toyota Group Optimistic Scenario Toyota Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at Toyota in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take Toyota to the shown
MA37-18 83
Key Powertrain Trends for Toyota Group—Complete Portfolio
Electrified powertrains will play the key role on turning the mpg numbers around for Toyota. More than half the
engines shall see downsizing towards 2020, with increasing cam timing controls and stop-starts.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Toyota, North America, 2013–2020

Valve Train Architecture Fuel Off-cycle
Powertrain and Cam Timing Injection Engine technologies
Electrification Downsizing boost
100%
3.0
84%
80%
2.5
62%
2.0 55%
1.5 38%
1.0 16% 20% 21%
0.5
0%
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020

MA37-18 84
Technology Penetration Intensity—Toyota Group
Down-sized, direct-injected engines will see high growth by 2020, as high as 40% over 2013 levels. Electrified
powertrains will see drastic improvements in battery capacity and motor characteristics.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Toyota, North America, 2020
Engine downsizing
Direct injection
Higher compression ratios
Rapid combustion (vertical vortex

tumble flow)
Atkinson cycle with elctronic/wide
angle VVTs Optimistic
Large-volume cooled EGR
Frost & Sullivan
Idling stop Conservative
6/8-speed automatics, CVTs
Alternative fuels/Fuel cells
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
technologies at Toyota by 2020 from 2013, weighted on 2013 levels. Source: Company media Web sites; Frost & Sullivan
MA37-18 85
Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights—Volkswagen Group
VW’s Modular strategy will shape powertrains in the long term with high levels of commonality between
platforms. Diesel technologies will see significant advancement, too.
Powertrain Market: VW Approach, North America, 2013–2020 Powertrain Market: Propulsion

Modular platforms are expected to spin out close to 5 million Scenario at VW, North America,
units globally by 2018. The 3 modular approaches—Modular 2013 and 2020
VW Modular Transverse Matrix (MQB), Modular Longitudinal (MLB), and
platforms Standard Modular Drive system (MSB)—will be the foundation
to all future segments, except the new small-car family from the
group, optimizing vehicle attributes across the fleet. 80.6% 76.0–
77.0%
More than 80% of the engines will be turbocharged. Electric-
assisted turbochargers will penetrate more into diesels to
Boosting and
reduce turbo lag and standing-start performance in larger
injection engines. Diesel engines will also see injection systems with
pressure close to 3,000 bar.
VW will stay committed to bringing advanced diesel technologies 3.0–
Diesel- in tandem with improving its gasoline powertrains, for overall 3.0% 4.0%
gasoline improvements in fuel-economy levels. Diesel models will grow
19.0–
equilibrium annually by over 10% during 2014 to 2020. 16.4% 20.0%
Putting significant focus on transmissions to improve fuel 2013 2020

Transmission economy, VW will introduce advanced direct-shift gearboxes Diesel IC only Gasoline Hybrids
technologies (DSGs) (10-speed) in an attempt to improve fuel economy by Gasoline IC only
about 15% across its fleet by 2020.
Hybrids will gain increased momentum with Jetta finding high levels of acceptance in the market. The
Alternative powertrain could go greener with BlueMotion technologies and with increased hybridization among
propulsion models, such as Passat and Golf, with an average of 15% to 20% fuel savings over conventional ICE
versions.
MA37-18 86
Compliance Roadmap—Volkswagen Group
Friction reduction, energy recovery, active transmission decoupling, engine lightweighting, and advanced
DSGs will drive the fuel economy numbers at Volkswagen.
Powertrain Market: Fuel Economy Roadmap for VW, North America, 2012–2020 44.1
43.2
43.5 42.9
Downsizing Engine lightweighting High-pressure low- 41.9
pressure EGR
41.5 42.0
Low-friction engine Auto stop-starts 40.6
components
39.8 40.9 40.7
Transmission decoupled
39.5 coasting
Improved thermal 39.3
management 37.7
38.8 Cylinder deactivation
37.1
37.5
36.7
Advanced 10-speed
Powertrain
35.3 36.5 DSG
35.5 electrification
High-pressure injection
35.3
35.3
34.5
33.5 Variable
32.8 32.433.9 Electric turbochargers
compression ratios
33.2
31.7
31.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volkswagen Group Conservative Scenario Volkswagen Group Frost & Sullivan Scenario
Volkswagen Group Optimistic Scenario Volkswagen Group average target
The technologies shown above are those whose deployment will enhance fuel economy compliance at VW in the indicated time zones. Dotted lines that
separate time zones signify their continued deployment going forward. Fuel saving capabilities of the indicated technologies will take VW to the shown
MA37-18 87
Key Powertrain Trends for Volkswagen Group—Complete Portfolio
Smaller engines will have expanding shares with turbochargers and direct injections deployed widely. Active
cylinder management and stop-start systems will also play pivotal roles in achieving high fuel-economy levels.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration for Volkswagen, North America, 2013–2020

Powertrain
Electrification Downsizing Engine
and Cam Timing Injection Off-cycle
boost
97% technologies
1.2 92%
88% 90%
88% 85%
80%
1.0
0.8
0.6
25%
0.4
3% 8%
0.2
0.0
VCT
Direct Injections
Stop-starts
SOHC
DOHC
TC
IC Engines
Engines up to 2.5L
2013 2017 2020
MA37-18 88
Technology Penetration Intensity—Volkswagen Group
Lightweighting of engines and powertrains will be an important strategy for CAFÉ compliance. Advanced
boosting systems and DCTs will also have a significant role to play.
Powertrain Market: Technology Penetration Growth Scenarios for Volkswagen, North America, 2020
Higher-pressure injection systems (TDI)
Engine lightweighting
Low-friction engine componenets (TDI)
Integrated high- and low-pressure EGR

(TDI)
Thermal management (integrated
exhaust manifold)
Cylinder deactivation (TSI)
Optimistic
Coasting-transmission decoupling (TSI)
Frost & Sullivan
Electric turbo chargers (TSI)
Conservative
Auto stop-starts
Variable compression ratios (TSI)
Advanced 10-speed DSG
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

The exhibit shows the percentage increase of key fuel- Penetration into Vehicles
saving technologies at VW by 2020 from 2013, weighted on TSI refers to VW’s family of gasoline engines and TDI refers to VW’s family of diesel engines.
2013 levels.
MA37-18 89
Conclusions and Future Outlook
Return to contents
MA37-18 90
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
Downsizing with advanced-injection and combustion strategies, combined with higher efficiency transmissions,
will improve the performance of ICE powertrains. Alternative propulsion methods will also grow in the long term.
Total Powertrain Market: Key Conclusions, North America, 2013–2020

Toyota
Ford
General Motors
Downsizing, direct-injection, Downsizing, high-pressure
turbocharging, advanced Expanding smaller engine fleets,
direct injection, Atkinson cycle,
combustion strategies, cylinder deactivation, advanced
higher compression ratios,
powertrain electrification, stop- automatics, lightweighting,
advanced CVTs
starts, advanced automatics improved combustion, electrics
Chrysler
BMW
Advanced direct injection, third- Variable cam timing and lift,
generation automatic transmission, advanced automatics, lean
Key OEM strategies burn, variable compression
automatic stop-starts, active for fuel economy
transmission decoupling, clean ratios, stop-starts, energy
compliance recovery
diesel technologies
VW Downsizing, turbocharging,
Downsizing, high-pressure dual CVVTs, advanced DCTs,
injection, advanced transmission powertrain electrification, fuel
decoupling, energy recovery, 10- cells
Downsizing, variable valve Hyundai
speed DCTs, clean diesel timing and lift, 7/8-speed
technologies DCTs, fuel cells, hybridization Smaller engines, high-pressure
injection, stop-starts, advanced
Downsizing, advanced direct Honda automatics, electronically
injection, advanced CVTs, Daimler controlled turbo waste gates
electrification, advanced EGR Renault Nissan
MA37-18 91
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Not all OEMs selling to the large-volume market may necessarily count on engine
downsizing as the biggest strategy for reducing fuel consumption levels towards 2020.
1 Advanced combustion strategies and thermodynamic improvements will be equally
focused on.
With advanced emission control technologies, diesel vehicles can make a comparable
2 value proposition as electrified vehicles in the subcompact to mid-size cars, if the cost
of latter refuse to come down.
Manufacturers may also have strategies to bank on CAFÉ credit trading schemes in
3 the event of shortfalls of fuel economy credits, while continuing to spin revenues out
of their top selling models with increased margins.
MA37-18 92
Legal Disclaimer
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MA37-18 93
Appendix
Return to contents
MA37-18 94
Learn More—Next Steps
• Talk to an analyst
• Arrange a Growth Workshop
• Explore the Growth Excellence Matrix 2.0
• Attend a Live or Virtual Event
MA37-18 95
Additional Sources of Information on North American Powertrains
• Future of Global Powertrain and Electric Vehicles Market- Analyst Briefing
• 2014 Outlook for the global Automotive Industry- Analyst Briefing
MA37-18 96
Table of Acronyms Used
AT Automatic Transmission DOHC Dual Overhead Cam

BEV Battery Electric Vehicle DSG Direct-shift Gearbox
CAFÉ Corporate Average Fuel Economy DVVL Discrete Variable Valve Lift
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate DVVT Discrete Variable Valve Timing
CARB California Air Resources Board EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation
CEPA California Environmental Protection EISA Energy Independence and Security Act
Agency EPA Environmental Protection Agency
CO2 Carbon Dioxide EV Electric Vehicle
CNG Compressed Natural Gas FFV Flex Fuel Vehicles
CVVL Continuously Variable Valve Lift FHEV Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle
CVVT Continuously Variable Valve Timing GDI Gasoline Direct Injection
CVT Continuously Variable Transmission IC Internal Combustion
DCP Dual Cam Phasing ICE Internal Combustion Engine
DCT Dual Clutch Transmission i-VTEC Intelligent VTEC (Honda)
DLC Diamond-like Carbon kWh Kilowatt Hour
DPF Diesel Particulate Filter LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
DoD Displacement On Demand OEMs Original Equipment Manufacturers
MA37-18 97
Table of Acronyms Used (continued)
MPFI Multi-purpose Fuel Injection TC Turbocharge

mpg Miles Per Gallon VCT Variable Cam Timing
MPV Multi Purpose Vehicle VVA Variable Valve Actuation
MY Model Year VVL Variable Valve Lift
NOx Nitrogen Oxides VVT Variable Valve Timing
NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety VTEC Variable Valve Timing and Lift–Electronic
Administration Control
OHV Overhead Valve YoY Year-over-Year
PHEV Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle ZEV Zero Emission Vehicle
R&D Research and Development
SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction
SMD Sauter Mean Diameter
SOHC Single Overhead Cam
SUV Sport Utility Vehicle
MA37-18 98
Market Engineering Methodology
One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables

is its Market Engineering studies. They
are based on our proprietary Market
Engineering Methodology. This approach,
developed across the 50 years of
experience assessing global markets,
applies engineering rigor to the often
nebulous art of market forecasting and
interpretation.
A detailed description of the methodology

can be found here.
MA37-18 99

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OEM Powertrain Strategies for CAFÉ Compliance in

North America Towards 2020

Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst

Sudeep Kaippalli Yeswant Abhimanyu

Program Manager Strategic Review Committee Leader

Anjan Hemanth Kumar Sarwant Singh

Section Slide Number

Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 16

Definitions and Segmentation 22

Total Powertrain Market -

• Drivers and Restraints 36

• Forecasts and Trends 43

OEM Profiles and Fuel Economy Outlook 49

Conclusion and Future Outlook 90

Total Powertrain Market: Key Takeaways, North America, 2013–2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Total Powertrain Market: Key Takeaways, North America, 2013–2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Total Powertrain Market: Market Engineering Measurements, North America, 2013

Base Year Compound

7.4% 1.8% 44.5% >25

Decreasing Stable Increasing For a tabular version click here.

17.5% CAGR (2013–2020) = 1.8% 9.0%

74.8% 2.0 70.8%

Key: CNG = Compressed Natural Gas.

▲ Growing ▼ Declining ● Stable Not Applicable

Total Powertrain Market: Technology Focus of OEMs, North America, 2013–2020

For a list of abbreviations, click here.

Legend: Priority Very low Low Medium High Very high

240 Mini Van

Midsize Large Pick up truck

Compact Full Size Midsize

Nissan Toyota Chevrolet

Source: NHTSA; Frost & Sullivan

Governmental Stance Highest OEM Readiness

The stringency of the mandate will steadily go

Base Year 2013

Study Period 2013 to 2020

Forecast Period 2014 to 2020

Vehicle Type Passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Total Powertrain Market: Key Industry Participants, North America, 2013–2020

General Motors AVL Powertrain

Honda Borg Warner

The OEM groups compared in this study are as follows:

Group OEMs Group OEMs

Renault- General Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet GMC,

BMW BMW, Mini Honda Honda, Acura

Daimler Mercedes-Benz, Smart Hyundai Hyundai, Kia

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Dealing with a Credit Shortfall

Intra company credit transfer between vehicle fleets

Model Year 2011–2013 2014–2017 2018–2025

Intercompany credit Joint request preparation containing

Joint formal request to Verification of credit Closure of trade by debiting

Credit Carry-forward Flexibility:

Air Conditioning Improvement Credits:

Adjustment for cars Adjustment for trucks

Solar panels Battery charging only 3.3 0.371 3.3 0.371

Active transmission warm-up 1.5 0.169 3.2 0.360

Reduction of Engine Friction Losses:

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Discrete Variable Valve Lift (DVVL):