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42 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

The 2021 HiMCM


Dr. Kathleen Snook, HiMCM Director

C ongratulations to our 2021 Out‑


standing team winners and to all
teams participating in our twenty‑
The 2021 Contest
The mathematical modeling ability of
participating students continues to be
evident in the problem solutions and
fourth International High School Math‑ Our 2021 participating teams submitted professional submissions we receive. We
ematical Contest in Modeling (HiMCM). some truly impressive papers. We see acknowledge and credit advisors and
We are excited to again join with the the vision of our founders in the unique teachers for their work with these stu‑
National Council of Teachers of Math‑ and creative mathematical solutions to dents. As teachers and students engage
ematics (NCTM) to designate two of complex open‑ended real‑world prob‑ in mathematical modeling at a higher
our teams as NCTM Award winners. lems. As in the past, students chose level, we are happy and excited to assist
The HiMCM continues to be an amazing from two problems. This year’s problems your efforts. Let us know how COMAP
and rewarding experience for students, challenged teams to determine the best might support your modeling activities.
advisors, schools, and judges across the solar storage system for an off‑the‑grid
home in Problem A: Storing the Sun, or The 2021 contest had 774 registered
globe. A total of 705 teams, with up to 4
to investigate the impact of drought on teams resulting in 705 submissions
students each, representing 303 schools
water reservoirs in Problem B: Tackling (91%). Of the 705 submissions, 352 com‑
and 20 countries/regions, competed this
the Drought. pleted Problem A: Storing the Sun, and
year.
353 completed Problem B: Tackling the
Outstanding Teams As learning environments continue to Drought. Table 1 shows the judging
• 11462 Central Academy, IA, USA be a bit disrupted and sometimes virtual results of the 2021 HiMCM. We accept
or hybrid, we are truly impressed with partial solutions and encourage all reg‑
• 11552 Shanghai Linstitute
the amazing teamwork shown by par‑ istered teams to submit a solution paper
School, Shanghai, China
ticipating students. We commend all to experience the learning impact and
• 11576 Yue Kong Pao Secondary students and advisors for the creativity satisfaction of fully participating in this
School, Shanghai, China and ingenuity of their mathematical ef‑ challenging contest.
• 11823 Canadian International forts. It appears that teams truly enjoyed
School of Beijing, Beijing, China In total, 2613 students participated in
developing mathematical models to
the 2021 HiMCM. A wide range of
• 11898 Chengdu Shishi High address solar power storage and drought
schools competed, including teams
School, Sichuan, China in our 2021 HiMCM problems.
from Australia, Canada, Chile, China,
• 11900 Shanghai Pinghe School, Germany, Hong Kong (SAR), India,
Shanghai, China Overview
While COMAP has offered inter‑ Indonesia, the Philippines, Poland, Sin‑
• 11931 Shanghai Pinghe School, gapore, South Korea, Taiwan China,
Shanghai, China national modeling contests for over 40
years, HiMCM celebrated its 24th contest Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom,
• 12384 Hunter College High School, the United States of America, and Viet‑
in 2021. As increasing numbers of
NY, USA nam. The 193 teams from the United
schools engage their students in math‑
ematical modeling, we see continued States represented 26 states. Submis‑
NCTM Award Teams increasing participation in COMAP’s sions included 512 foreign teams. China
• 11924 Shanghai Pinghe School, modeling contests. Starting with 115 represented about 87% of the foreign
Shanghai, China (Finalist) students in the first year of the HiMCM, participants.
• 12100 Whittle School, Shenzhen over the course of 24 contests we have Of the 2613 student participants this
Campus, Guangzhou, China had 41,198 students apply their math‑ year, 546 (21%) self‑identified as female,
(Finalist) ematical knowledge and skills as they 1170 (45%) self‑identified as male, and
modeled challenging problems in the 897 (34%) did not specify gender. Since
HiMCM. the start of HiMCM in 1999, the 41,198
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HiMCM Contest

articles, web sites, textbooks, journals,


publications). Additionally, COMAP
will never require that you purchase
additional materials or information to
be successful in the HiMCM. The mate‑
rials and information provided by
COMAP, along with your own team’s
knowledge, skills, and perhaps a bit of
Table 1: 2021 HiMCM Judging Results research using allowed references, is all
that you need for success.

COMAP uses Twitter and Weibo to pro‑


vide contest information to participants.
Follow us @COMAPMath on Twitter or
COMAPCHINAOFFICIAL on Weibo
for contest guidance and up to date
contest information.

Judging
All contest submissions are electronic.
This allows a high quality and diverse
judging pool from academia and indu‑
stry to simultaneously judge papers.
In December 2021, we conducted our
first round of contest judging with
Figure 1: Total HiMCM Student Participants 1999 – 2021 judges from the U.S. states of Alabama,
(Note: there were two HiMCMs in 2001 when contest moved from spring to fall.)
California, Georgia, Maryland, Mas‑
graphical support is necessary to present sachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New
total participants are quite diverse. We
their full analysis of the problem within Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota,
hope that all students enjoy their contest
25 pages. Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South
experience and continue to pursue
Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and
further Science, Technology, Engineer‑ One important rule is that students Washington, as well as judges in the
ing, and Mathematics (STEM) educa‑ may only use the members of their own United Kingdom. Each paper is read
tion. We welcome all levels of high team along with inanimate (non‑living) and scored by two preliminary judges.
school students to the HiMCM. The sources to complete the contest prob‑ We thank these judges for their careful
only prerequisites for success in the lem. Students may not use any chat review of our HiMCM submissions.
contest are high school mathematics rooms, electronic communication, or
skills and concepts. Figure 1 shows the social media sources. Each year we All judging is blind with respect to any
growth of the HiMCM with the total have some teams that do not under‑ identifying information about the parti‑
number of students participating since stand this rule. To be clear, contacting cipants or their schools. Preliminary
the contest’s start in 1999. an expert in a field or an author of one judges rank papers as Finalist, Merito‑
of the referenced sources is a violation rious, Honorable Mention, and Successful
Rule Changes of this rule. Gathering data from persons Participant. Judges sent all papers ranked
Recent rule changes regarding the outside of your team through the use of as “Finalist” to Final Judging. This year,
contest window and scheduling working an interview or a survey or a question‑ 54 papers went to Final Judging for a
time for team members have provided naire is a violation of this rule. Using panel of twelve judges to consider. As
our teams flexible work hours resulting solutions shared electronically by other these 54 papers were the best submis‑
in high quality paper submissions for teams or by organizations is a violation sions from the preliminary round, at
both problems. Our 25‑page limit for of this rule. Again, only the team members final judging the judges chose the
papers results in well‑written and well‑ may contribute to the solution through “best of the best” as Outstanding papers.
organized solution papers. Teams must their own knowledge and work, and by Eight papers earned the Outstanding
choose what information, modeling, and using inanimate resources (e.g. research award. The final judges commend the
44 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

preliminary judges for their efforts in skills are needed for the contest. All our 2022 Contest Dates
selecting the high‑quality Finalist papers. HiMCM problems are accessible using Mark your calendars for the next HiMCM,
We feel that the structure of preliminary high school level mathematics alone, and the second annual MidMCM, to be
and final judging provides a good pro‑ and no programming or coding skills held November 2 – 15, 2022. Registration
cess for identifying our top papers. are required or necessary. Our new for the 2022 MidMCM and HiMCM will
MidMCM problems require only mid‑ open in September. Student teams may
dle school/level mathematics. As in all work at any time during the contest win‑
of our contests, each of our problems is dow. At the team members’ convenience,
accessible on multiple levels. Students teams download and choose their problem,
should apply the mathematics they complete their modeling solution, and
understand and are able to explain in electronically submit their solution doc‑
their solution analysis. ument by the deadline on November
The Future and The New Advisors need only be motivators and 15th. Again in 2022, one team for each
MidMCM facilitators to encourage students to be problem will receive the NCTM award.
creative and imaginative. COMAP en‑ Teams can learn more about COMAP’s
For 23 years, the HiMCM has sought
courages all middle and high school contests and registration at
to provide all high school students the
mathematics faculty to get involved, www.comap.com.
opportunity to compete and achieve
success in applying mathematics. Our encourage your students to be problem
efforts remain focused on meeting this solvers, make mathematics relevant, MathModels.org
important goal. Mathematical modeling and open the doors to future success. Powered by COMAP content, Math‑
continues to grow within the high We want to partner with teachers as we models.org is a wonderful resource for
school curricula across the globe, and continually strive to improve the contest students and teachers to make math model‑
we recognize that middle school students and make it accessible and impactful to ing a year round activity. Teachers and
are now modeling too. In 2021, COMAP all students. Any school can enter and students may use the materials found on
held its first international MidMCM, a each school can enter as many teams as this site to enrich their classes and help
middle school/level contest option. The that school desires. MidMCM and prepare students for mathematical modeling
MidMCM occurred concurrently with HiMCM have no restriction on the total competitions. We encourage you to visit
HiMCM. The MidMCM allows middle number of schools or teams. www.mathmodels.org.
school/level students the opportunity More than just learning skills and oper‑
to demonstrate their mathematics and ations, mathematics is both an art and
modeling abilities. For more details and a science. Through mathematical mod‑ Awards
the results of this new contest please eling, students learn to think critically,
visit www.MidMCM.com. OUTSTANDING
communicate effectively, and be con‑
fident, competent problem solvers. FINALIST
The MidMCM and the HiMCM provide Success is not only about the procedural MERITORIOUS
a vehicle for using mathematics to build technique used, but the conceptual un‑ HONORABLE MENTION
models that allow students to represent, derstanding in discovering the role of
and to understand, real world behavior SUCCESSFUL PARTICIPANT
assumptions and model development
in a quantitative way. Both contests in driving those techniques to a valid
enable student teams to look for patterns After final judging, HiMCM
solution and conclusion. The ability to papers receive a designation
and think logically about mathematics recognize problems, formulate a math‑
and its role as a language in our daily in one of the categories above.
ematical model, use technology, and to Depending upon the qual‑
lives. Students gain confidence by tack‑ communicate and reflect on one's work
ling ill‑defined problems and working ity of the papers, the top
are important skills to develop. Applying 20–25% of submitted papers
as part of a team to generate a solution. the mathematical principles and concepts
We are excited that in our contests, receive a d e s i g n a t i o n o f
that one learns is key to individual and Meritorious or above, with
applying mathematics is a team sport. societal future success. approximately t h e t o p 1 %
Advisors and students often ask what designated as Outstanding.
level of mathematics is required, and
what special programming or coding
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
45
HiMCM Contest

Problem Discussions and Judge’s Commentary


The following paragraph describes what solutions and presentations by breaking
our preliminary and final judges look for down the various parts of a submission
in identifying and judging competitive and providing exemplars. To view the
HiMCM papers: complete problem statements visit
www.mathmodels.org
Regardless of the problem chosen, com‑
petitive papers include a comprehensive or
www.himcmcontest.com
The International Mathematical summary, address all requirements through
Modeling Challenge, IM2C developing and applying a mathematical
The International Mathematical Mod‑ model, and write a clear letter or memo if Problem A: Storing the Sun
eling Challenge (IM2C), held each required. Better papers do all of the above
spring, continues to grow. The purpose in an articulate, well‑supported, well‑
organized, and well‑presented manner. The
of the IM2C is to promote the teaching
best papers combine complete mathematical
of mathematical modeling and applica‑
and logical analysis, and explain their
tions at school level (high school and work in an organized presentation beyond
below) for all students around the simply addressing the requirements.
world. It is based on the firm belief that These best papers are easy to read, flow In this problem, we asked teams to
students and teachers need to experi‑ logically, and they include sections that think about the current issue of storing
ence the power of mathematics to help address assumptions with justifications, energy produced by solar panels. As
better understand, analyze and solve the modeling process(es), results of mod‑ the home use of solar panels is
real world problems outside of math‑ eling and analysis, strengths and weak‑ increasing in many parts of the world,
ematics itself—and to do so in realistic nesses, sensitivity, conclusions, and references. some homeowners desire to truly live
contexts. Each country/region admin‑ “off‑the‑grid,” with no connection to
isters the contest for its own students Our judges have asked that I continue their local energy grid (i.e., a power
and then sends its top two teams to to stress that all our HiMCM problems company). This requires having an
the international final judging. An are accessible by students at any level energy storage system. Energy storage
international Expert Panel of final judges using high school mathematics. Some systems allow homeowners to capture
determines winners and selects teams teams attempt to use advanced concepts electricity, store it in another form of
to present their solutions at an inter‑ and tools found on the Internet that energy (battery, thermal, mechanical),
national award ceremony. In 2021, selected they do not explain clearly or use and then have it to use when needed.
teams presented at local, regional, or appropriately. Judges recognize this,
virtual conferences due to COVID‑19. and these papers do not do well. We are Overall, Problem A asked teams to
IM2C hopes to return to an international not looking for papers that use the most analyze the solar‑power storage require‑
award ceremony in 2023. To learn more advanced mathematics. We have found ments for a 1600 square‑foot off‑the‑
visit www.immchallenge.org for rules that the best papers develop a math‑ grid home, to develop a mathematical
and country/region contacts. ematical model that incorporates high model to evaluate various battery storage
school level mathematical concepts and systems, and to choose the best storage
COMAP invites selected teams from tools that the teams understand, are option for this home. Teams also had to
the United States, to include teams able to fully explain, use appropriately, adjust and generalize their model to
earning Meritorious or above in the and analyze subsequent results. The evaluate battery storage systems for any
HiMCM contest, to compete in the most important aspects of solutions are home. Finally, teams considered and
IM2C U.S. Regional Round. Registration the model development and the clear use discussed the use of cement batteries.
is free! From these participants, our U.S. and analysis of the model toward addres‑
IM2C judges select the two top teams to While the problem statement provided
sing the requirements of the problem.
represent the U.S. in the IM2C international background information about solar power
round. See U.S. Rules for IM2C at The following specific problem discus‑ storage and criteria when considering storage
https://immchallenge.org/Pages/Rules/ sions provide comments on how teams systems, most teams began by doing some
USA/USA‑Rules.html. addressed the requirements of each additional research. Teams posed and
problem. Following this section, we answered questions to help them estimate the
provide judges’ comments about the energy demands for this home. In addition to
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HiMCM Contest

three questions provided about residents and batteries would be integrated into the water, in 2021 the Bureau of Reclamation
energy usage, teams explored other impacts actual building structure was an advantage. announced the first‑ever water shortage
on energy storage requirements. For example, Teams recognized and discussed the declaration. This water shortage declara‑
many questions arise from the initial question additional information they would need tion resulted in reduced deliver of water
of “Where is the home located?” Teams to analyze and model cement batteries. to several states in the region with agricul‑
considered factors such as hours of daylight, Teams should ensure they read the problem tural communities feeling the first reductions.
change in daylight during various seasons, requirements carefully. The solar storage
problem asked teams to determine and Overall, Problem B asked teams to look at
percentage of cloudy/rainy days versus days
discuss the additional information needed factors impacting water levels in Lake
of sunshine, and maximum hours the system
to model and compare cement batteries Mead, verify volume data, and analyze
could provide power without recharging.
BUT also indicated that teams did NOT the volume and elevation patterns of Lake
After determining their needs, teams need to create the model. Some teams spent Mead to identify and describe past and
developed a model to evaluate storage future drought periods. Additionally,
time and pages in their paper to create and
systems. Teams used characteristics of teams had to address the impact of future
present a model at the expense of perhaps
several given batteries, along with other water demands and consider the recy‑
enhancing another required part of their
batteries found through online research, cling of wastewater to make up any
solution.
to develop their models. It was important future shortfalls.
for teams to pay attention to units (e.g., Teams wrote a one‑page, non‑technical
news article describing their solar power Most teams started their modeling by
kw versus kwh) and to recognize the
batter storage decision model and their examining the factors influencing inflow,
various unit measures of the characteristics
recommendations for the future possibi‑ outflow, and loss in Lake Mead. Teams
(inches, lbs, %). Most teams developed a
lities of a cement battery. Judges saw then considered evaporation and assessed
model that ensured the storage system
many well‑written articles. Teams should the relationship of these factors to the vol‑
had the required power and maximized
note that not all readers understand ume and water level of the lake. Lake
desired characteristics. The judges
mathematics and modeling. Better papers Mead is an irregularly shaped lake with
particularly looked for teams to clearly
enhanced their article using graphics or varying depths. COMAP provided teams
state what “best” meant in a storage
flowcharts and their descriptions were with limited data from 2010 showing the
system and to logically build a model to relationship of elevation, area, and volume
evaluate various battery storage options. The easy to follow and understand.
of Lake Mead. Teams used many methods
judges then looked for teams to use their as they discussed how to use mathematics
Teams presented a range of methodologies,
model and choose a specific storage system to verify the provided data. Teams should
from simple and straightforward to more
(i.e., which battery or batteries and how many ensure they read the problem require‑
complex, to address the issue of solar
of these batteries). Most teams developed a power storage. It seemed teams enjoyed ments carefully. The drought problem
reasonable model, but most teams also under‑ learning more about storage options for asked teams to describe what additional
estimated the energy requirements for several this renewable energy source. The judges information and data they would need to
consecutive cloudy or rainy days. Surprisingly, enjoyed reading these thoughtful and creative apply their mathematical plan to verify
very few teams suggested that homeowners solution papers. these measures BUT also indicated that
consider a back‑up fuel generator to cover teams did NOT need to obtain these data
the possibility of multiple rainy days. Problem B: Tackling the or calculate the measures. Some teams
spent a great amount of time and many
To generalize their model, teams allowed Drought
pages of work to approximate the volume
sliding scales of input variables that address‑
of the lake at the expense of their fully
ed factors such as number of residents, size of completing the other two parts of the
home, number of appliances, and location of problem.
home. A key factor in generalizing the model
was the location of the home as teams needed Teams next considered data files contain‑
to measure the impact of daylight hours and ing the elevation level of Lake Mead at the
weather patterns. end of each month, as well as the highest
This real‑world problem addresses the and lowest elevation levels during each
Teams next considered cement as a new present‑day challenges of the water levels year, from 1935 to 2021. Teams analyzed
possible medium for energy storage. in Lake Mead in Colorado, United States. patterns and defined the criteria for
They acknowledged the issue of weight Due to continuing drought conditions drought periods to include when they
as a disadvantage, but the fact these coupled with increasing demands for start and when they end. Teams should
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HiMCM Contest

have included a comparison of recent tion of the solutions from our judges’ Executive Summary
droughts to those in the past to determine point of view. At the end of the article, As the first page, or cover sheet, the
any trends. Most papers used regression we have included excerpts from our Executive Summary provides a first
and other predictive modeling to look for Outstanding papers as exemplars. impression of your paper. It offers the
these drought trends in the lake. The Mathmodels.org members can view all judge (or any reader) not only a
judges specifically looked for teams to the unabridged versions of the Out‑ synopsis of the paper and your mod‑
provide a definition for a drought period. standing papers online. eling and analysis process, but also the
In developing two models, based on two solution to the problem. Judges see
different periods of data, judges looked Overall many well‑detailed descriptions of the
for teams to use their models to specifi‑ Participants must ensure their papers problem and the process but look for
cally predict and compare Lake Mead follow the contest rules posted on the well‑written and complete summaries
water levels in future years. contest website. Papers that are coher‑ that include the important actual results
ent, organized, clear, and well written and recommendations. Teams should
Based on their models and predictions, provide a great impression to the
students addressed the impact of future write the Executive Summary after they
judges. The logic and mathematics of finish their solution to summarize the
water demands. Teams identified and these papers are easy to follow.
described factors to include in a plan to entire contents of the paper. Although
recycle wastewater. They considered deci‑ Teams should present their entire sub‑ written last, ensure you spend time on
sions and priorities local leaders would mission in 25 pages or less, using at this important part of your submission.
need to make. Teams described their plan least 12‑point font. These 25 pages Judges are best able to analyze a paper
and its impact. Better papers addressed should include your introduction/ex‑ when students restate the problem in
fit‑for‑purpose recycling and made spe‑ ecutive summary, your solution that their own words and clearly preview
cific recommendations. addresses all requirements, a resource the focus and organization of their
list, and any appendices. While students paper. Teams should consider a three to
Teams wrote a one‑page, non‑technical may want to include some background
news article reporting their key takeaways five paragraph approach for their sum‑
research on the problem topic, this mary: a restatement of the problem and
and recommendations. Most teams handled information should be brief. It is not the
this requirement quite well. Teams must questions in their own words, a short
number of pages, but the ability to com‑ description of their method, a discus‑
remember that the readers of this article plete all contest requirements and
may not have the same level of math‑ sion of their solution model, and actual
communicate the solution in a concise results and conclusions providing the
ematics savvy as they do. The better articles and articulate fashion that will merit
were more readable and often had a few numerical answers in context. Examples
recognition. Students should use spelling 1 and 2 present good summaries for
graphics or illustrations to catch the and grammar checkers before submitting
reader’s eyes. Problem A: Storing the Sun and Problem B:
a paper. Foreign papers should insure Tackling the Drought respectively.
The judges saw a myriad of methodologies that all symbols in tables and graphs are
used to model Lake Mead, define droughts, in English. Student and school names The Non-Technical Memo
and develop recycling recommendations. should not appear on solution papers. or Article
From the very simple to quite complex, Papers considered for Finalist and Out‑ The purpose of the article or memo is to
students presented creative solutions to mod‑ standing start with a clear summary show the judges that regardless of the
eling this real‑world problem. Teams adeptly that describes the problem. These teams complexity of your mathematics or
used both provided information and data then preview their paper with an analysis, you can convey your work
they obtained from other sources to ap‑ organized Table of Contents. They present and solution in common terms. Often,
proach the problem. assumptions with justifications, explain the recipients and consumers of math‑
the development of their model and its ematical modeling and research are not
Judge’s Discussion solutions, apply their model, and sup‑ as technically astute as the mathematicians
port the results mathematically. These and scientists doing the work. Teams
While the problem discussions above best papers communicate all of the above must translate their hard work into a shorter
provide comments on the solutions to clearly, do a sensitivity analysis, address descriptive format, such as a news article
this year’s problems, in the following strengths and limitations, and finally, or memo. This increases the likelihood
paragraphs we examine the sections of close by stating overall conclusions. your audience will understand and con‑
a submission and provide comments sider your solution and recommendations.
about the solutions and the presenta‑
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HiMCM Contest

Like your summary, the article briefly In Problem B: Tackling the Drought, a good to use or modify it to fit this problem.
describes the problem and background, example of an assumption is “The Teams that merely present a model
your model or process, and your results monthly water consumption by residents without explaining or showing the
and any recommendations. Some teams served by Lake Mead is constant within development of that model do not gen‑
include a flowchart or diagram in their a year.” An unnecessary assumption is erally do well. Although during your
article. These visual aids can assist the “There will not be a catastrophic event HiMCM work you may develop several
team in presenting their process and the that destroys Lake Mead.” Note that models, presenting multiple models
reader in understanding the model and Example 5 included a list of assump‑ without identifying the most appropri‑
results. The solar storage article de‑ tions with justifications this team ate model to answer the questions is
scribed the team’s decision model and deemed required for their modeling detrimental to your paper’s success.
addressed cement batteries. The drought process in Problem A: Storing the Sun. Judges are more impressed with a well
article provided key takeaways and thought out (and perhaps simple)
recommendations from the team’s anal‑ Definition and Use of Variables model then with a very complex model
ysis. A good memo for Problem B: Tackling Most mathematical models include that a team struggles to apply. To impress
the Drought is shown as Example 3. several (or perhaps many) variables the judges, focus on applying sound
that teams must define for the reader. principles to your model that you un‑
Introduction/Background This list of variables should include the derstand. Judges do value creativity
Following the summary, teams should variable symbol, a short description of and thinking “outside of the box” so be
provide some brief background, restate the variable, and the units of the vari‑ creative and have fun. Be sure, however,
the problem, and perhaps provide a able. Judges often see lists of 10, 20, or to balance creativity with your level of
preview of the solution. Teams should even 30 unique variables in HiMCM expertise and modeling experience.
not simply repeat what was in the submissions Any complexity gained by
summary. In Example 4, a team succinctly adding an excessive number of vari‑ Perhaps the most important step of the
provides an introduction that incorpo‑ ables is often offset by their practicality modeling process is the last one:
rates a diagram to preview their modeling and usefulness. Using best practices, explicitly present your final model in its
process and then restates the problem teams should focus on a manageable set full form. Do not make the judges have to
for Problem A: Storing the Sun. Using a of variables when modeling. Ad‑ look for your final model. Judges continue
flow chart or diagram is an excellent ditionally, as you use variables in your to see papers with an initial model men‑
way to present your overall model or model, remind the reader of the variable tioned in one section and then different
algorithm. Example 5 illustrates similar definitions and units. This practice assists models used in subsequent sections with‑
introductory sections for Problem A: the reader in following the logic of your out the team connecting the models logically.
Storing the Sun followed by Assump‑ process. A nice list of variables for Prob‑ Be consistent and logical with your mod‑
tions with Justifications. lem B: Tackling the Drought is shown as eling process and guide the reader
this team introduces their water loss through your solution. Clearly identify
Assumptions with Justifications model in Example 6. your model(s) and then use your final
Good models make a few necessary model as you address the problem require‑
assumptions to help simplify the mod‑ Mathematical Model ments and determine your results.
eling process. These are sometimes called The development of the mathematical
There are many ways to model and analyze
simplifying assumptions. A common model is the most important part of
the HiMCM problems. This year we
mistake judges see is teams that make your submission. There is always more
saw a variety of appropriate, as well as
assumptions that are not needed nor than one appropriate solution method
creative, models to address both prob‑
relevant to developing their model. to our HiMCM problems and so teams
lems. Many times, a picture is worth a
Good and relevant assumptions are dif‑ should address the problem with the
thousand words! The use of tables,
ficult to identify and articulately state. mathematics they know and under‑
graphs, and images is often helpful to
Long lists of assumptions that do not stand. Papers should explain the devel‑
show your modeling process. We in‑
play directly in the context of model opment of the mathematical model(s)
clude several examples of the processes
development or its solution are not con‑ and/or algorithm(s) and define all vari‑
involved in model development for this
sidered relevant and deter from a ables in a logical manner. Teams should
year’s problems.
paper's quality. Assumptions that over‑ take the reader on a journey describing
simplify the problem too much do not why they selected a particular model or To get started on their modeling in
allow for a full solution. You should in‑ decided to use one or more models. Problem A: Storing the Sun, teams posed
clude a short justification to show each Better teams will explain why they and answered questions impacting
assumption is reasonable and necessary. choose their model and how they plan energy needs in the home as shown in
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
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HiMCM Contest

Example 7. In Problem B: Tackling the from start to end. See a nice conclusion Follow us @COMAPMath on Twitter or
Drought, teams first considered inflow, from Problem B: Tackling the Drought in COMAPCHINAOFFICIAL on Weibo for
outflow, and loss as shown in Example 8. Example 14. information about all COMAP contests.
Note this team’s use of an illustrative
graphic of their ideas. Some teams Citations and References List of Examples:
begin with a general overview of their Citations are very important within the
1. Summary (Problem A, Team 11900,
modeling process to include their vari‑ paper, as well as either a reference list
Shanghai Pinghe School, Shanghai,
ables, main concept, and perhaps a process or bibliography page at the end. Teams
China)
diagram as shown in Example 9. that use existing models should cite
their source(s) within the paper at the 2. Summary (Problem B, Team 11924,
An important task in Problem B: Tack‑ point they present the model and include Shanghai Pinghe School, Shanghai,
ling the Drought was to define the crite‑ a reference citation at the end of the China)
ria of a drought period. Example 10 paper. This is also true for all graphs 3. Article (Problem B, Team 11898,
nicely discusses and defines drought and tables taken from the literature. Chengdu Shishi High School, Sichuan,
criteria, while Example 11 presents drought Use “in line” documentation with foot‑ China)
periods in table and graphic form. notes or endnotes to give proper credit
4. Introduction (Problem A, Team 12117,
Example 12 presents a team’s predic‑ to outside sources. All data, figures, Chengdu No. 7 High School (Gaoxin
tive model to address future drought graphs, and tables that come from out‑ Campus), Sichuan, China)
periods in Problem B: Tackling the Drought. side sources require documentation at
the point in the paper where they appear. 5. Introduction/Assumptions (Problem A,
Strengths and Limitations Team 11462, Central Academy, IA,
Lack of documentation will result in a
As teams only have a short time to USA)
lower designation. We have noticed an
develop their model, we expect strengths
increase in the use of Wikipedia. Teams 6. Model Variables (Problem B, Team
and limitations. Teams should be criti‑ 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School,
need to realize that although useful,
cal of their proposed model and solution Shanghai, China)
information from Wikipedia might not
as they address strengths, limitations, and
be accurate. Teams should recognize 7. Energy Demand Questions (Problem A,
possible model extensions or improve‑
and acknowledge this fact and look for Team 11931, Shanghai Pinghe School,
ments. Is your solution reasonable?
primary resources. Shanghai, China)
Under what conditions will it perform
best and where will it not? Addition‑ Final Thoughts 8. Model Development (Problem B, Team
ally, teams should address the sensitivity Each year the quality and level of math‑ 11823, Canadian International School of
of their solution. Is there a critical as‑ Beijing, Beijing, China)
ematics demonstrated by our high school
sumption you made that if changed student teams amazes and impresses 9. Overview Model Process (Problem B,
would significantly change your solution? our judges. We truly enjoy reading all Team 11576, Yue Kong Pao Secondary
Did you use weightings that if changed solution papers. Successful teams use a School, Shanghai, China)
would significantly impact your results? wide variety and level of mathematics. 10. Model Development (Problem B, Team
Teams should validate their models, even While teams using post‑high school/un‑ 12384, Hunter College High School, NY,
if by numerical example or intuition. dergraduate level mathematics are in a USA)
Example 13 provides a sensitivity anal‑ league of their own if they understand
ysis followed by a model evaluation for 11. Model Development (Problem B, Team
and can explain their work, teams using
Problem B: Tackling the Drought. 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School,
basic high school mathematics and Shanghai, China)
much simpler approaches are often
Conclusion 12. Model (Problem B, Team 11898,
among our Outstanding designees. We
A clear conclusion and answers to the Chengdu Shishi High School, Sichuan,
encourage students of all levels to com‑
specific scenario questions are key com‑ China)
pete in future HiMCM competitions. To
ponents to an Outstanding paper.
be successful, read the comments and 13. Sensitivity, Strengths and Limitations
Attention to detail and proofreading
guidance provided in this article, see (Problem B, Team 11576, Yue Kong Pao
your paper prior to final submission are
the TIPS article on the COMAP website, Secondary School, Shanghai, China)
vital as the judges look for excellence in
and visit mathmodels.org to review
your submission. Teams should take 14. Conclusion (Problem B, Team 12384,
previous problems.
the time to read the entire paper to Hunter College High School, NY, USA)
ensure they have followed a logical
sequence and flow that tells a story
50 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Summary
The usage of solar power has, in recent years, been adopted by many countries to reduce CO2
emission. However, compared to traditional methods of producing power, solar power is not
capable of producing power consistently as it is heavily dependent on the sun. A method to store
solar energy is therefore necessary to store solar energy when available, and to release it when
power is needed. The most common way to store electricity is to use a battery. However, batteries
come in different costs and qualities, and a method is necessary to determine how good a battery is,
and what battery is the best.
Therefore, we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This method is suitable to the
problem as it gives weight from the comparative importance of the factors, which may vary due to
different geological issues. In generalizing the model, we choose several locations on Earth that
have distinct characteristics. These characteristics, as they alternate the comparative importance of
factors over each other, affect the ultimate choice of the best battery.
In short, we believe that the Discover AES 7.4kWh battery is the best battery due to its
excellent instantaneous power ratings and round-trip efficiency. Its continuous power rating and
capacity is also good while having medium cost. This would be of use both in warm countries,
where the instantaneous power rating is necessary to power air conditioners; and in colder
countries, where capacity and efficiency are important in making the most out of the minimal
sunshine. The choice of this battery, therefore, would be the best choice. Another alternative to this
choice is the Tesla Powerwall + battery. It also has good qualities and excellent capacity. However,
due to its higher cost and bulkiness, it isn’t as good as the Discover battery. The rest of the
batteries were not a good choice, either because of poor quality or high cost.
The demand for electricity generally becomes greater with the advancement in technology
and living conditions. In 2020, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential
utility customer was 10,715 kilowatt hours (kWh). A typical U.S. home consists of lightings, a
dryer, a stove, a water heater, a dishwasher, a disposal, and a central AC.
Another alternative to using traditional batteries is cement-based battery. One of the most
updated research on sustainable energy and solar energy batteries has developed and improved on
the cement-based batteries by increasing energy density. It is suggested that with the installation of
this technology, the ubiquitous application of concrete would provide extra capacity for home use
energy storage. Yet, after close examination and calculation of the given data, as well as the
comparison with other choices in the market, we hold an overall negative altitude for its
application in the current stage. Its disadvantage includes low storage capacity and high costs.
Furthermore, information including potential dangers, performance under extreme conditions, and
long-term durability was not provided for more rounded decision making. Nevertheless, we are
optimistic for the future developments of this technology.

Example 1: Summary Problem A


Team 11900, Shanghai Pinghe School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
51
HiMCM Contest

Example 2: Summary Problem B


Team 11924, Shanghai Pinghe School, Shanghai, China
52 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! !

!" #$%&'($)$*&$!'
Saving Lake Mead:
!
!

Recycling Wastewater Does Wonders


!
!
!Since the summer of this year, the temperature in the
!western part of the United States has been higher
!than before, accompanied by widespread droughts.
!The most worrying thing is that Lake Mead
!Reservoir, the largest artificial lake in the western
!region of the United States, will also face a "red
!alert". In fact, the federal government has officially
!announced that the Lake Mead Reservoir is in a state
!of water shortage. According to relevant
!hydrological calculations, the storage capacity of the
!reservoir is only 36% of its full capacity, which is a In addition, the prediction shows that if the trend of
!record low since the completion of the Hoover Dam the recent drought period continues, the water level by
!in 1930. If Lake Mead runs out of water, then 2050 is only 740 feet, which is lower than the dead
!Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and other regions storage, 900 feet approximately, while if the trend of
!will significantly reduce water supply in 2022. the water level from 2005 to 2020 lasts, the water
! level of Lake Mead in 2050 is predicted to be only 964
!According to investigation and analysis from Team feet, which is also very close to the dead storage. !
!11898, the water level of Lake Mead is mainly
!affected by factors such as precipitation, It is urgent to take measures to deal with the water
!temperature, wind speed and wind direction. shortage problem. In addition to reducing personal and
!Concerning the temperature, the western part of the industrial water consumption through government
!United States is experiencing extremely high calls, a large-scale treatment of wastewater to
!temperatures recently, and there is not much rainfall effectively recycle wastewater resources is advocated.
!or snowfall that can be left to prevent drought in the When implementing the wastewater recycling plan
!summer. As for the precipitation, which in the proposed by Team 11898, priority should be given to
!eastern region of Rocky Mountains mainly depends factors like the quality and volume of wastewater,
!on the southwest monsoon, is also decreasing. This construction and operation costs, and the difficulty of
!year, a huge ridge of high pressure appeared in the construction. The successful implementation of the
!southwest of the United States, which is too far to wastewater recycling plan is expected to have a good
!the south, preventing the westerly wind and impact on the local environment, economy and
!monsoon from reaching, causing less precipitation. society.
This indicates that the recent climate will have a
!negative impact on the water level of Lake Mead. Due to people's lack of awareness of water
! conservation in the previous century, coupled with
!Referencing to definition of Meteorological Drought climate factors such as today's greenhouse effect and
!and Hydrological Drought, with the water level global climate change, our freshwater resources have
!being the indicator, the most recent drought period is been severely reduced. As water resources are the
!found from April 2021 to present. The future water source of life, we must cherish the existing freshwater
lake resources and natural environment. We never
level of Lake Mead is predicted by Team 11898,
know the worth of water till the well is dry. Therefore,
finding that the water level of Lake Mead will
we encourage everyone to save water, using water
continue to decline in the next 30 years.!
! rationally and recycling water!

Example 3: Article Problem B


Team 11898, Chengdu Shishi High School, Sichuan, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
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HiMCM Contest

1. Introduction

Example 4: Introduction Problem A


Team 12117, Chengdu No. 7 High School (Gaoxin Campus), Sichuan, China
54 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

1 Introduction
1.1 Background

With the development of sustainable energy sources as alternatives to fossil fuels comes
an increasingly important question: How can sustainable energy, such as solar or wind power, be
effectively stored? An expanding number of homeowners must solve this dilemma as they begin
to utilize sustainable energy sources such as solar panels to power their homes. Currently, the
prevailing solution is electrical batteries, which store energy in the form of electricity for later
use. There are many different batteries on the market, with a large variation between the design
and application of each. Every home has different electrical needs and therefore requires a
unique energy storage solution, posing a major challenge to many homeowners seeking to run
their homes off sustainable energy. Aiding homeowners in this undertaking is the basis of our
task.

1.2 Restatement of Problem

We must develop a model which determines the best battery storage system for a 1600ft2
house powered fully by solar panels. Our chosen battery system must support the house through
the night as well as through a cloudy day. In generating this model, a multitude of factors must
be considered: the total energy needed to support the house over a cloudy day, the
required to run all the appliances in the house, and the differing capabilities of batteries already
on the market. The model must then take these considerations and output an adequate power
system, likely an array of multiple batteries. Afterward, our model must be adapted to output an
adequate battery storage system for any home, and the viability of cement batteries
must be explored.

2 Preliminary Information

2.1 Assumptions

1. During light hours, our solar array is capable of fully supporting the
power needs while also charging the battery storage system to its full capacity.
Justification: The task assumed by our team was only to determine the battery storage system of
the house. Our battery system is only required to support the house at night and on a cloudy day,
so the solar panels must be able to support the house during the day itself. Furthermore, we must
assume that the batteries can be reliably charged to their full capacity during a non-
cloudy day since the specifications of the battery system are otherwise negated.

2. No energy is generated during night hours, where night is sunset to sunrise.


Justification: Solar panels produce a negligible electrical output when the sun is not in the sky;
for the sake of simplicity, this production will be disregarded.
demands must be fully met by the battery storage system during the night.

Example 5: Introduction/Assumptions Problem A


Team 11462, Central Academy, IA, USA
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
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HiMCM Contest

3. No energy is produced during a cloudy day.


Justification: Calculating the amount of energy produced during a cloudy day would require
and its regular output, which is beyond the scope of our
task. Cloudy days also vary in severity, meaning that it is not possible to assign a simple
coefficient of energy production to every cloudy day. Consequently, our model must default to
the assumption of no energy production during a cloudy day. This assumption also gives our
system redundancy.

4. The length of a cloudy day is 24 hours plus one night.


Justification: In the event of a cloudy day, the batteries will have to power the house until the
solar panels can become productive again. The batteries will have to last the night before the
cloudy day and the cloudy day itself, totaling 24 hours plus one night.

5. A day is split into 2 periods, 16 productive hours and 8 rest hours. Only constant power is
drawn during rest hours, and rest hours only occur at night.
Justification: direct effect on the power
necessities of the house; therefore, it must be assumed that they have a
regular period over which they use nonconstant appliances. This regularity allows our model
to be concise and simpler to figure.

6. Appliances can be used at any time during productive hours.


Justification: while it is reasonable to assume rigid periods of sleep and productivity, appliance
usage is much more variable. For the sake of versatility, we assumed that
appliance usage does not follow a strict guideline and can occur at any time throughout the
productive period.

7. Power consumption not listed does not exist.


Justification: To calculate every object and device that requires power within a house is
extremely complex and variable; to do so would overburden our model. Additionally, unlisted
power consumption would be inconsequential to our output.

8. All listed batteries can be combined in series and/or parallel.


Justification: Running batteries in series and/or parallel increases their capacity or continuous
power rating respectively, permitting flexibility in our battery system. While some batteries
cannot be connected in such a manner, for sake of simplicity in calculation, this is not a
limitation our model must consider.

Example 5: Introduction/Assumptions Problem A, Continued


Team 11462, Central Academy, IA, USA
56 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Example 6: Model Variables Problem B


Team 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
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HiMCM Contest

Example 6: Model Variables Problem B, Continued


Team 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School, Shanghai, China
58 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Example 7: Energy Demand Questions Problem A


Team 11931, Shanghai Pinghe School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
59
HiMCM Contest

3 Identify factors and relationship


3.1 Inflow, Outflow and Loss
General Function
There are a number of factors that could influence the inflow, outflow and loss of water in
lakes. Letting F be the volume, t = time in year, the inflow, outflow and loss forms a dynamic
cycle which usually balances the volume of water in lakes. The could be calculated by:

F (t + ∆t) = F (t) + Vinf low − Voutf low − Vloss (3.1)

Nevertheless, factors that impact the inflow, outflow and loss varies from lake to lake
depending on its geographic location, water resources nearby, human environment, to name but
a few. For Lake Mead, specific factors that contributed to its

VInf low = Vtributary inf low + Vdam water release


(3.2)
+ Vprecipitation + Vgroundwater
VOutf low = Vwater released + Vwater consumed (3.3)

VLoss = Vevaporation (3.4)

Figure 3.1: Inflow and Outflow

Example 8: Model Development Problem B


Team 11823, Canadian International School of Beijing, Beijing, China
60 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Example 9: Overview Model Process Problem B


Team 11576, Yue Kong Pao Secondary School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
61
HiMCM Contest

o Wastewater Recycling Plan: Finally, based on the cost and efficiency of the existing
wastewater treatment system, we establish an integer programming model to plan the
construction of different types of wastewater treatment plants included in the wastew-
ater recycling system of Lake Mead in the future.

In summary, the whole modeling process is shown in Figure 1

Figure 1: Model Overview

Example 9: Overview Model Process Problem B, Continued


Team 11576, Yue Kong Pao Secondary School, Shanghai, China
62 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Example 10: Model Development Problem B


Team 12384, Hunter College High School, NY, USA
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
63
HiMCM Contest

Example 11: Model Development Problem B


Team 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School, Shanghai, China
64 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

Example 11: Model Development Problem B, Continued


Team 11552, Shanghai Linstitute School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
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HiMCM Contest

!!!!! !! ! ! !

!"#"$ %&'()*+,*-(./01('*%&2.3/*+2(45/(*%(10&'*
The basic idea of the Weighted Moving Average Method, which is one of the time series models, is to
give greater weights to recent data considering the different importance of the data at different times.
This appropriately fits in the situation of a more similar climate pattern between consecutive months than
months with long intervals and the context of utilizing few data to make predictions.
The data of the most recent drought period, from April to September in 2021 indicated in 5.1.2,
is processed as raw data for model A. Since the climate patterns of consecutive quarters, which includes
three months, are relatively more similar, we consider that the climate of the predicted month is more likely
to be related with three previous months. For the predicted month, the water level of last month is with a
more internal relevance and greater weight, while the further apart the month the greater the difference in
climatic conditions and the less closely the data are correlated. Thus, considering data from the
previous three months before the month which is going to be predicted, the predicted data is

!
(9)

where is the predicted water level of the (t+1)th month; , and are the water levels
in month , month t-1 and month t-2; , and are the corresponding weights, where
and .

For verification, we predicted the water levels for July, August and September in 2021 by (9). The
predicted water levels are all generally larger than the actual water levels, which are shown in Table 3,
proving that we need to adjust the predicted values by (9).
Table 3. Actual and Predicted Values for July, August and September in 2021
Month 2021/7 2021/8 2021/9
The actual water level 1067.7 1068 1067.7
Model predicted water level 1072.1 1069 1068

The relative error between the predicted values and actual values is!

(10)

Since the predicted values are averagely 0.18% higher than actual values, the predicted value
can by divided by 1+0.18%, with serving as the corrected predicted values of model A.
Based on the weights obtained above and the proposed correction criteria, water level predictions for
2025, 2030 and 2050 are presented in Table 4.a and 4.b!!!!
Table 4.a. Predicted Water Levels of 2025, 2030 and 2050 from January to June by Model A (feet)

Water level "#$%#&'! ()*&%#&' +#&,- ./&01 +#' "%$)


2324!5')#&6 "#$%&"" "#$$&#" "#$#&'# "#"'&(# "#"(&)' "#"*&+'
2373!5')#&6 '+(&(# '+*&*) '+)&*% '++&)' '+,&)) '+%&)%
2343!5')#&6 *%'&+" *%(&*" *%*&'", *%*&"" *%)&%" *%+&+$

Table 4.b. Predicted Water Levels of 2025, 2030 and 2050 from July to December by Model A (feet)

Water level "%1' .%8%9: ;)/:)<*)& =,:>*)& !?>@)<*)& A),)<*)&


2324!5')#&6 "#")&,' "#"+&%' "#",&$' "#"%&$# "#"$&"# "#""&#"
2373!5')#&6 '+$&+' '+"&+) '+#&+, ','&+" ',(&,( ',*&,)
2343!5')#&6 *%,&*$ *%%&'% *%%&", *%$&%, *%"&++ *%#&*)

It can be clearly seen that from 2025 onwards, the water level has been below the threshold in
our drought period criteria and continues to fall. It is even worse that the water level in 2050 is already
well below Lake Mead's dead storage, 900 feet approximately, for the whole year. In other words, Lake
Mead is likely to disappear shortly after 2050, which will bring enormous negative impacts for both humans
and the ecosystem.

Example 12: Model Problem B


Team 11898, Chengdu Shishi High School, Sichuan, China
66 CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer

HiMCM Contest

6.4 Sensitivity Analysis


In Section 6.3, the exogenous factors are introduced to estimate the number of wastewa-
ter facilities and the corresponding budget: the expected amount of wastewater. Therefore,
the relationship between results and the exogenous factors is approximated shown in the
Figure 12.

(a) Secondary (b) Advanced

(c) No Discharge (d) Total budget

Figure 12: Sensitivity Analysis

It is indicated that the number of wastewater facilities and the corresponding budget in-
creased with thethe expected amount of wastewater margin, which reflects the effectiveness
of facilities on wastewater recycling. The trend of the model obtained by sensitivity test is
consistent with the actual situation, which also proves the rationality and robustness of the
model.

7 Model Evaluation
7.1 Advantages
o Based on the dynamic data of the various components of Lake Mead’s water resources,
we have obtained the data-based correlation between factors, which was more con-
vincing;

o Our time series forecasting model based on the autocorrelation of historical water level
data itself is objective;

o We obtained the optimal number of wastewater treatment facilities of different specifi-


cations through the integer programming model, and specified a set of reasonable and
feasible wastewater recycling plans considering local financial pressure and conducted
a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate the stability of the model.

7.2 Possible Improvements


o If we had more elaborate data, we could get a dynamic Lake Mead water resources
budget balance sheet.

o Due to the limited time to complete, the wastewater recycling program we provided
only involves the installation of large-scale wastewater treatment facilities, and did
not consider possible technological progress. If there was enough time, a more com-
prehensive analysis could be established.

Example 13: Sensitivity, Strengths and Limitations Problem B


Team 11576, Yue Kong Pao Secondary School, Shanghai, China
CONSORTIUM 122 Spring/Summer
67
HiMCM Contest

Example 14: Conclusion Problem B


Team 12384, Hunter College High School, NY, USA

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