Run Off Triangles - Bornhuetter

Bornhueffer Ferguson Method
ultimate loss ratio 0.916667 total claims to be paid to date £0.00
development year Premium developmental factor

year 0 1 2 3 earned f_2,3
2003 3340 3750 4270 4400 4800 f_1,2
2004 3670 4080 4590 4900 f_0,1
2005 3690 4290 5050
2006 4150 5200
total payout expected 19379.30
o/s claims reserve 4379.30

developmental factor
1.0304 year initial liability emerging liability ultimate liability
1.1315 2004 4491.67 132.71 4722.71
1.1327 2005 4629.17 659.02 4949.02
2006 4766.67 1157.56 5307.56
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method
estimated loss ratio 0.87 total claims to be paid to date £20,103,000.00
development year premium developmental factor

year 1 2 3 income f_23 1.33609900155
2005 3541 7111 9501 11041 f_12 2.15115562404
2006 2949 6850 11314
2007 3894 12549
total expected payout £29,840.16 (thousands)
o/s liability £9,737,155.74

year initial liability emerging liability ultimate liability
2006 9843.18 2476.07622355542 9326.0762235554
2007 10917.63 7119.07952056325 11013.079520563

year 0 1 2 3 earned f_2,3 1.2000
2005 96 136 140 168 175 f_1,2 1.0274
2006 100 156 160 181 f_0,1 1.3354
2007 120 130 190
2008 136 196
total payout expected £731.29
o/s claims reserve £137.29

2006 173.76 28.96 188.96
2007 182.40 34.45 164.45
2008 188.16 73.88 209.88

2011 1509 1969 2106 2207 f_1,2
2012 1542 2186 2985 f_0,1
2013 1734 1924
2014 1773 4013
total payout expected
o/s claims reserve

1.2253 2012
1.2704 2013
2014 3752.16 1452.01 3225.01
estimated loss ratio 0.91 total claims to be paid to date
development year developmental factor

year 1 2 3 premium income f_23
2005 3215 6847 10078 11365 f_12
2006 2986 7123 12012
2007 4167 12867
total expected payout £33,050.32
o/s liability £11,864.32

£21,186.00
2.2528624415 2006 10930.92 3504.44557650327 10627.445576503
2007 11708.97 8177.87019923629 12344.870199236
estimated loss ratio 0.827411922 total claims to be paid to date
incremental
development year premium
Year 1 2 3 4 5 income
1 2800 1400 987 322 57 6727
2 3260 2004 1017 421 8289
3 3854 1978 857 9627
4 3722 2114 9928
5 4627 10004
cumulative
development year premium
Year 1 2 3 4 5 income
1 2800 4200 5187 5509 5566 6727
2 3260 5264 6281 6702 8289
3 3854 5832 6689 9627
4 3722 5836 9928
5 4627 10004
£21,186.00
f45 1.01034670539 year initial liability emerging liability
f34 1.06478897803 2 6858.417 70.235
f23 1.18704236402 3 7965.495 561.284
f12 1.5497213259 4 8214.546 1781.993
5 8277.429 4094.874
6508.38607030499
total expected payout
o/s liability
ultimate liability
6772.235
7250.284
7617.993
8721.874
£35,928.39
Note
£14,742.39 Given that these are claims paid (rather than incurred), we don’t need to c
ultimate liability to get the reserve we can just total up the emerging liabi
an incurred), we don’t need to calculate the revised
just total up the emerging liabilities
estimated loss ratio 0.8 total claims to be paid to date £5,720.00

year 1 2 3 income f_23 1.3100304
2005 2670 3290 4310 5390 f_12 1.2155797
2006 2850 3420 5600
2007 3030 6030
total expected payout £13,614.93
o/s liability £7,894.93

2006 4480 1060.23201856149 4480.2320185615
2007 4824 1794.69860754285 4824.6986075429
estimated loss ratio 0.87 total claims to be paid to date £20,103,000.00

year 0 1 2 income f_23 1.33609900155
2005 3541 7111 9501 11041 f_12 2.15115562404
2006 2949 6850 11314
2007 3894 12549
total expected payout £29,840.16 (thousands)
o/s liability £9,737,155.74

2006 9843.18 2476.07622355542 9326.0762235554
2007 10917.63 7119.07952056325 11013.079520563

2003 3340 3750 4270 4400 4800 f_1,2
2004 3670 4080 4590 4900 f_0,1
2005 3690 4290 5050
2006 4150 5200
total payout expected 19379.30
o/s claims reserve 4379.30

1.1315 2004 4491.67 132.71 4722.71
1.1327 2005 4629.17 659.02 4949.02
2006 4766.67 1157.56 5307.56
estimated loss ratio 0.92 claims paid till date

year 1 2 3 income f_23
2010 1417000 1923000 2101000 f_12
2011 1701000 2140000
2012 1582000 3073000
o/s liability for 2012 £1,982,371.88

£441,000.00
1.3031 2010
2011 2827160 841371.881073942 2423371.881074

Run Off Triangles - Bornhuetter

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Bornhueffer Ferguson Method

ultimate loss ratio 0.916667 total claims to be paid to date £0.00

development year Premium developmental factor

total payout expected 19379.30

o/s claims reserve 4379.30

estimated loss ratio 0.87 total claims to be paid to date £20,103,000.00

development year premium developmental factor

total expected payout £29,840.16 (thousands)

o/s liability £9,737,155.74

ultimate loss ratio 0.96 total claims to be paid to date £0.00

development year Premium developmental factor

total payout expected £731.29

o/s claims reserve £137.29

ultimate loss ratio 0.935 total claims to be paid to date £0.00

development year Premium developmental factor

total payout expected

o/s claims reserve

estimated loss ratio 0.91 total claims to be paid to date

development year developmental factor

total expected payout £33,050.32

o/s liability £11,864.32

estimated loss ratio 0.827411922 total claims to be paid to date

total expected payout

estimated loss ratio 0.8 total claims to be paid to date £5,720.00

development year premium developmental factor

total expected payout £13,614.93

o/s liability £7,894.93

estimated loss ratio 0.87 total claims to be paid to date £20,103,000.00

development year premium developmental factor

total expected payout £29,840.16 (thousands)

o/s liability £9,737,155.74

ultimate loss ratio 0.916667 total claims to be paid to date £0.00

development year Premium developmental factor

total payout expected 19379.30

o/s claims reserve 4379.30

estimated loss ratio 0.92 claims paid till date

development year premium developmental factor

o/s liability for 2012 £1,982,371.88

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