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Nat Rev Nephrol. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2021 March 27.
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Abstract
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Hypertension is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease and premature death worldwide.
Owing to widespread use of antihypertensive medications, global mean blood pressure (BP) has
remained constant or decreased slightly over the past four decades. By contrast, the prevalence
of hypertension has increased, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).
Estimates suggest that in 2010, 31.1% of adults (1.39 billion) worldwide had hypertension. The
prevalence of hypertension among adults was higher in LMICs (31.5%, 1.04 billion people) than
in high- income countries (HICs; 28.5%, 349 million people). Variations in the levels of risk
factors for hypertension, such as high sodium intake, low potassium intake, obesity, alcohol
consumption, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet, may explain some of the regional
heterogeneity in hypertension prevalence. Despite the increasing prevalence, the proportions of
hypertension awareness, treatment and BP control are low, particularly in LMICs, and few
comprehensive assessments of the economic impact of hypertension exist. Future studies are
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warranted to test implementation strategies for hypertension prevention and control, especially in
low-income populations, and to accurately assess the prevalence and financial burden of
hypertension worldwide.
INTRODUCTION
Hypertension is the leading preventable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and
all- cause mortality worldwide.1,2 In 2010, 31.1% of the global adult population (1.39
billion people) had hypertension, defined as systolic BP ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP
≥90 mmHg.3 The prevalence of hypertension is rising globally owing to ageing of the
population and increases in exposure to lifestyle risk factors including unhealthy diets (i.e.
high sodium and low potassium intake and lack of physical activity.3 However, changes in
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hypertension prevalence are not uniform worldwide. In the past two decades, high-income
countries (HICs) experienced a modest decrease in hypertension prevalence, while low and
middle- income countries (LMICs) experienced significant increases. 3 These disparities in
hypertension prevalence trends suggest that health care systems in LMICs could be facing a
Tele: 504-988-5165;
jhe@tulane.edu.
Competing interest statement
The authors declare no competing interests.
Mills et al. Page 2
In this Review, we discuss estimates and trends in mean BP levels and hypertension
prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control worldwide. We also examine risk factors for
hypertension, strategies for hypertension control, and evidence of the financial burden of
hypertension. We conclude by discussing the consequences of current trends in
hypertension and areas where more research is needed.
was 78.7 mmHg in men and 76.7 mmHg in women.4 Higher mean systolic and diastolic BPs
in both men and women were found in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central and
Eastern Europe, while lower mean BPs were found in high-income Western and high-
income Asia-Pacific regions.4 Social and environmental factors, including healthcare access,
availability of antihypertensive medications, and regional variations in hypertension risk
factors, such as obesity, alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet and lack of physical activity,
likely contribute to these regional differences3,4
This study also reported that over the past 40 years, estimated mean BP has remained
constant or decreased slightly worldwide.4 Estimated global mean age-standardized systolic
BP remained fairly constant in men between 1975 (126.6 mmHg) and 2015 (127.0 mmHg)
but decreased slightly in women during this period (from 123.9 mmHg to 122.3 mmHg).
Trends for men and women were similar for estimated global mean age-standardized
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diastolic BP, with very little change in men and a slight decrease in women. However,
regional changes in estimated mean BP between 1975 and 2015 were more heterogeneous
(Figure 1). In general, HICs experienced a significant BP decrease, while BP in LMIC
regions increased.4 Substantial decreases in estimated age-standardized mean systolic and
diastolic BP occurred in both men and women in high-income Western and Asia-Pacific
regions between 1975 and 2015.4 Estimates suggest that the largest decrease in systolic BP
was in the high-income Asia-Pacific region in which systolic BP decreased by 2.4 mmHg
per decade in men and 3.2 mmHg per decade in women, whereas the largest decrease in
diastolic BP was in the high-income Western region in which diastolic BP decreased by 1.5
mmHg per decade in men and 1.8 mmHg per decade in women. Decreases in mean systolic
and diastolic BP were also observed in women in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin
America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Central Asia, while no
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change in BP was seen in men in these regions.4 In both men and women, systolic and
diastolic BP increased in East and Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan
Africa.
These regional changes in mean systolic and diastolic BP have led to disparities in the
burden of hypertension.3 Improvements in prevention, detection, and treatment of BP in
HICs have likely contributed to lower BP levels in these regions.3–7 By contrast, limited
healthcare resources together with population ageing and urbanization, which is associated
with reductions in physical activity and increases in unhealthy diets, are potential drivers
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of BP increases in LMICs.8–10 In both HICs and LMICs, women have higher proportions
of hypertension awareness, treatment, and control than men.3 These differences could
contribute to the greater BP reductions observed in women than men in some regions
lowest prevalence of hypertension in men was found in South Asia (26.4%), whereas the
highest prevalence was in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (39.0%). In women, the
prevalence of hypertension was lowest in HICs (25.3%) and highest in Sub-Saharan Africa
(36.3%). The reasons for these disparities in hypertension prevalence across regions are not
fully understood but are likely influenced by differences in the prevalence of risk factors for
hypertension, including unhealthy diet, lack of physical activity and obesity.3,8
The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study included 153,996 adults aged 35–
70 years from 628 rural and urban communities in 17 geographically and economically
diverse countries who were recruited between 2003 and 2009.11 This study included 142,042
participants with BP data at baseline, providing a unique opportunity to compare
hypertension prevalence between rural and urban populations in different world regions. The
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PURE study found that 40.8% (95% CI 40.5–41.0%) of participants had hypertension with a
higher prevalence in men (41.4%) than in women (37.7%).11 Residents of rural areas had a
higher prevalence of hypertension than urban residents in HICs and middle-income countries
(MICs), but the opposite was true in low-income countries (LICs).11
We estimated that between 2000 and 2010, the global age-standardized prevalence of
hypertension in adults aged ≥20 years increased by 5.2%.3 This estimate is consistent with a
2015 Global Burden of Disease analysis that found that the prevalence of elevated systolic
BP (≥140 mmHg) increased 3.2% from 17.3% in 1990 to 20.5% in 2015.12 The global
increase in prevalence of hypertension was consistent by sex (5.5% in men and 5.0% in
women) but varied by economic development.3 From 2000 to 2010, the prevalence of
hypertension increased in LMICs and decreased in HICs (Table 1).3 LMICs experienced a
sharp increase in hypertension prevalence from 23.8% in 2000 to 31.5% in 2010. By
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As mentioned above, an estimated 1.39 billion adults worldwide had hypertension in 2010
with an approximately even distribution between men and women (Table 1).3 Among those
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with hypertension, approximately 75% (1.04 billion) lived in LMICs and 25% (349 million)
lived in HICs. By contrast, in 2000 an estimated 921 million people had hypertension
comprising 322 million (34%) in HICs and 599 million (66%) in LMICs.3,13 Between 2000
and 2010, the absolute burden of hypertension (total number of individuals with
hypertension) increased by 440 million in LMICs and only 27 million in HICs.3 In 2010, the
highest absolute burden of hypertension was in East Asia and the Pacific, which had more
individuals with hypertension than all HICs combined.3 The absolute burden of hypertension
in men and women increased in all world regions between 2000 and 2010, except for in the
Middle East and North Africa where the absolute burden in women decreased slightly.3 The
Global Burden of Disease study estimated that in 2015 around 3.5 billion adults worldwide
had systolic BP of at least 110–115 mmHg, a level that is associated with increased risk of
ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and kidney disease.4 This prevalence represents a
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marked increase from 1990 when 1.87 billion people had a systolic BP of at least 110–115
mmHg.4
hypertension prevalence increased from 32.0% (based on the traditional criteria) to 45.4%
(Table 2).19,20 In the Chinese general population, the increase was even greater from 23.2%
to 46.4%.19,20 These findings suggest that if the new criteria were applied worldwide, the
difference in hypertension prevalence between LMICs and HICs would be much greater
than previously reported.3 Full implementation of the new guidelines would require a greater
proportion of adults to be treated with antihypertensive medications but could prevent an
estimated 610,000 CVD events and 334,000 deaths per year in the US alone.19
Valid estimation of global BP levels and hypertension prevalence is highly dependent on the
availability and quality of BP data from population-based studies around the world. Many
factors, such as the representativeness of study populations (e.g. sampling methods and
response rates), BP measurement methods (e.g. calibration of BP measuring devices,
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worldwide, particularly in LMICs, are required to enable accurate assessment of the global
burden of hypertension.
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difference in risk of CVD death that was associated with a given absolute difference in usual
BP for each decade of age was similar for increases in BP from levels as low as 115 mmHg
systolic and 75 mmHg diastolic.15 In those aged 40–69 years, a difference in usual systolic
BP of 20 mmHg or usual diastolic BP of 10 mmHg was associated with a more than twofold
difference in the rate of stroke deaths and a twofold difference in the rate of death owing to
IHD and other CVD causes. The proportional difference in CVD mortality that was
associated with a given absolute difference in usual blood pressure in adults aged 80–89
years was about half that of adults aged 40–49 years, but the annual absolute differences in
risk were greater in old age.15
In adults who are middle aged or older (≥35 years), systolic BP is a more important
determinant of CVD risk than diastolic BP.24–26 Among 347,978 men aged 35 to 57 years
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who were screened in the US for entry into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial
(MRFIT) and had not previously been hospitalized for CVD, 7,150 deaths from IHD and
733 deaths from stroke were identified during an average of 11.6 years of follow-up.25 In
every decile of BP, systolic BP was more strongly associated with risk of IHD and stroke
than was diastolic BP. When the highest deciles were compared with the lowest deciles,
the relative risks associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP were 3.7 and 2.8,
respectively, for IHD, and 8.2 and 4.4, respectively, for stroke.
Several large prospective cohort studies have reported that elevated BP is also a strong
independent risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease
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(ESRD).27–29 The increase in risk that was associated with higher BP was dose-response and
continuous throughout the distribution of BP levels above 120 mmHg.27–29 Among 332,544
men aged 35 to 57 years who were screened for entry into the MRFIT trial and did not have
ESRD at baseline, a strong independent linear relationship between both systolic and
diastolic BP and incidence of ESRD was identified during an average of 16 years of follow-
up.28 Compared with normotensive men who had a systolic BP <120 mmHg and diastolic
BP <80 mmHg, the relative risk of ESRD for men with hypertension who had a systolic BP
>210 mmHg or diastolic BP >120 mmHg was 22.1 (P<0.001). A similar association
between BP and risk of ESRD was reported in a cohort of 158,365 Chinese men and
women aged ≥40 years.29 In addition, BP was significantly and independently associated
with progression to ESRD among patients with CKD.27 Among 3,708 patients with CKD in
the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study in the US, multivariable-adjusted relative risk
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(95% CI) for ESRD was 2.37 (CI, 1.48 to 3.80) and 3.37 (CI, 2.26 to 5.03) among those
with systolic BP of 130–139 and ≥140 mmHg, respectively, compared with systolic BP
<120 mmHg.27
Randomized clinical trials have demonstrated that BP lowering with commonly used
regimens, such as diuretics, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor
blockers, and calcium channel blockers reduces the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.30,31
A large meta-analysis of 123 clinical trials with 613,815 participants showed that relative
risk reductions of CVD and all-cause mortality were proportional to the magnitude of
achieved BP reductions.31 For example, every 10 mmHg reduction in systolic BP
significantly reduced the risk of major CVD events by 20% (relative risk 0.80, 95% CI
0.77– 0.83), IHD by 17% (relative risk 0.83, 0.78–0.88), stroke by 27% (relative risk 0.73,
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0.68–
0.77), heart failure by 28% (relative risk 0.72, 0.67–0.78), and all-cause mortality by 13%
(0.87, 0.84–0.91).31 This study provided no clear evidence that proportional risk reductions
in major CVD events differed by baseline BP levels or comorbidities, except for patients
with diabetes and CKD, for whom the risk reductions were smaller but still statistically
significant.
The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) randomly assigned 9,361 patients
with systolic BP ≥130 mmHg and increased CVD risk to a systolic BP target of <120
mmHg (intensive treatment) or <140 mmHg (standard treatment).17 Increased CVD risk was
defined as clinical or subclinical CVD, CKD, a 10-year risk of CVD of ≥15% according to
the Framingham risk score, or an age of ≥75 years. At 1 year, mean systolic BP was 121.4
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mmHg in the intensive treatment group and 136.2 mmHg in the standard-treatment group.
Moreover, intensive treatment was associated with a 25% reduction in CVD events
(hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.64–0.89, P<0.001) and a 27% reduction in all-cause mortality
(hazard ratio 0.73, 95% CI 0.60–0.90, P=0.003) compared to standard treatment over a
median follow-up of 3.26 years. The number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one CVD
event during the follow-up period was 61, and the NNT to prevent one death from any
cause was
90.17 The SPRINT trial demonstrates that intensive BP lowering treatment with a systolic
BP target of <120 mmHg is beneficial for patients with hypertension who are at high risk of
CVD. The SPRINT trial prompted the revision of the definition of hypertension and BP
antihypertensive treatment goals.14
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The results of meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of
different BP targets or treatment intensities to reduce the risk of CVD and mortality in
patients with hypertension are consistent with the SPRINT findings.18,31,32 For example, a
2015 network meta-analysis of 42 trials that included 144,220 patients with hypertension,
reported linear associations between mean achieved systolic BP and risk of CVD and
mortality, with the lowest risk among those who achieved a systolic BP of 120–124 mmHg.
18 In these trials, study groups that achieved mean systolic BPs of 120–124 mm Hg had
hazard ratios for major CVD of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60–0.83), 0.58 (95% CI, 0.48–0.72), 0.46
(95% CI, 0.34–0.63), and 0.36 (95% CI, 0.26–0.51), compared with study groups that
achieved systolic BPs of 130–134 mmHg, 140–144 mmHg, 150–154 mmHg and ≥160
mmHg, respectively.18 Network meta-analyses offer a unique advantage over traditional
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Despite the findings from SPRINT and related meta-analyses, some concerns remain about
the appropriateness and effectiveness of intensive BP reduction in certain subgroups,
including patients with CKD, diabetes or stroke and older adults (≥65 years). A pre-
specified subgroup analysis of outcomes in SPRINT trial participants with CKD found that
intensive BP treatment resulted in significant reductions in the risk of CVD and death but no
significant increase in the incidence of serious adverse events compared to standard BP
treatment.33 The rate of continuous eGFR decline was higher in the intensive BP treatment
group but there was no significant difference in risk of CKD progression (defined as
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incident ESRD or halving of eGFR) between the two groups.33 In addition, a subgroup
analysis of 978 SPRINT participants (519 in the intensive and 459 in the standard treatment
group) showed that while eGFR was lower in the intensive treatment compared to standard
treatment group, urine biomarkers of tubule function, injury, inflammation, and repair were
not different over 4 years of follow-up. These findings suggest that observed eGFR declines
in the intensive treatment group predominantly reflect hemodynamic changes rather than
intrinsic damage to kidney tubule cells.34 An additional SPRINT subgroup analysis in
patients aged ≥75 years reported that intensive BP treatment significantly reduced the
incidence of CVD and mortality with no increase in serious adverse events compared with
standard BP-lowering treatment.35
As patients with diabetes or stroke were not included in the SPRINT trial, questions
regarding the risks and benefits of intensive BP lowering remain in these subgroups. The
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Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study reported that intensive
BP treatment aimed at achieving a systolic BP target of <120 mmHg did not significantly
reduce the risk of CVD events compared with standard BP treatment (systolic BP target of
<140 mmHg) in patients with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 0.88; 95% CI 0.73–1.06).36
However, a subgroup analysis suggested a significant reduction in CVD events in the
intensive BP treatment group compared to standard treatment group (hazard ratio 0.74, 95%
CI 0.55 to 1.00, p=0.049) among participants who received standard glycaemic treatment.37
standard BP control (relative risk 0.78; 95% CI 0.64–0.96; P = 0.02).38 On-going clinical
trials (such as the OPTIMAL-DIABETES trial [NCT04040634], the OPTIMAL Stroke trial
[NCT04036409], the BPROAD trial [NCT03808311], and the IBIS Trial [NCT03585595])
will likely provide definite answers regarding optimum BP treatment goals for patients
with diabetes or stroke. However, the currently available evidence supports a more
intensive BP treatment target.14
than men. Race and ethnicity is also a significant risk factor for hypertension. For example,
a study that analyzed National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015–
2016 data for 4,821 US adults aged ≥20 years, reported a significantly higher age-
standardized prevalence of hypertension in non-Hispanic Black individuals (57.3%) than in
non-Hispanic White individuals (43.8%) and Hispanic-Americans (44.7%).40 There is no
evidence that racial and ethnic disparities in risk of hypertension are explained by genetic
factors.41,42 Sociodemographic, environmental and behavioral factors are therefore likely to
be the main contributors to racial and ethnic differences in mean BP and prevalence of
hypertension.42 In addition, several modifiable risk factors, including high sodium intake,
low potassium intake, alcohol consumption, obesity, lack of physical activity, and unhealthy
diet are associated with increased risk of hypertension
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between 24-hour urinary sodium excretion and BP among 10,074 men and women aged 20–
59 from 52 population samples in 32 countries.47 In within population analyses, a 100 mmol
higher individual 24-hour urinary sodium excretion was associated with a 6.0 mmHg higher
average systolic BP and a 2.5 mmHg higher average diastolic BP. In across population
analyses, a 100 mmol higher median 24-hour sodium excretion was associated with a
median 4.5 mmHg higher systolic and 2.3 mmHg higher diastolic BP.47 When four remote
populations with extremely low urinary sodium excretion were excluded from the across
population analyses, a 100 mmol increase in median 24-hour sodium excretion was
associated with a 2.5 mmHg increase in systolic BP.47 The Intersalt study showed consistent
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patterns of regional differences in salt intake and BP levels. A positive and significant
association between spot urinary sodium excretion and BP was also observed in the PURE
study.49
In the DASH-Sodium trial, 412 people with an average systolic BP of 120–159 mmHg and
diastolic BP of 80–95 mmHg were randomly assigned to high sodium (mean urinary
excretion of 142 mmol per day), intermediate sodium (mean urinary excretion of 107 mmol
per day) and lower sodium diets (mean urinary excretion of 65 mmol per day) for 30 days
in a cross-over design.50 The results showed that reducing sodium intake from a high to an
intermediate level lowered systolic BP by 2.1 mmHg (P<.001) during consumption of a
usual American control diet and by 1.3 mm Hg (P = 0.03) during consumption of a Dietary
Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet. Further reducing sodium intake from an
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Several meta-analyses of clinical trials have shown that sodium reduction significantly
lowers BP in hypertensive and normotensive individuals.51–55 An Agency for Healthcare
Research and Quality (AHRQ) meta-analysis that included 48 randomized control trials
found a significant BP-lowering effect of dietary sodium reduction in adults both with and
without hypertension.55 In this study, a 42 mmol decrease in the weighted mean sodium
intake was associated with a 3.23 mmHg (95% CI 2.41–4.06) reduction in systolic BP and a
2.24 mmHg (95% CI 1.61–2.96) reduction in diastolic BP.55
Despite the strong positive association between dietary sodium intake, BP and risk of
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hypertension, the associations of sodium intake with risk of CVD, CKD, and mortality are
inconsistent.55 Some studies have found a positive association between dietary sodium
intake and these clinical outcomes, whereas others have found inverse, J-shaped or U-
shaped associations.56–65 These conflicting findings can likely be partly explained by
methodological limitations, such as systematic and random error in sodium measurements,
reverse causality, insufficient statistical power, residual confounding, and inadequate
follow- up duration.55,64,66 In summary, dietary sodium reduction should be recommended
to lower population BP levels and risk of hypertension. More research is needed, however,
to determine optimal dietary sodium intake for the prevention of CVD, CKD and mortality.
excretion (the best available measure of potassium intake) with the highest levels in Europe
(e.g., Finland 2,995 mg, Netherlands 2,835 mg, Germany 2,825 mg, Belgium 2,618 mg, and
Spain 2,629 mg) and South America (e.g., Brazil 2,940 mg, and Colombia 2,803 mg), and
the lowest levels in Asia (e.g., China 1,249 mg and Japan 1,792 mg) and Africa (e.g., Kenya
1,306 mg and Zimbabwe 1,466 mg).67,68 Observational epidemiological studies have
reported an inverse association of dietary potassium intake with BP levels and hypertension.
In the Intersalt study, a 50 mmol per day higher level of urinary potassium excretion was
associated with a 3.4 mmHg (95% CI 1.5–5.2) lower level of systolic BP and 1.9 mmHg
(95% CI 0.7–3.0) lower level of diastolic BP after adjustment for important confounding
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factors, including age, sex, BMI, alcohol consumption, and urinary sodium excretion, and
correction for regression dilution bias.69
high sodium diet. An AHRQ meta-analysis that included 18 randomized controlled trials
also reported that potassium supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in
systolic (6.43 mmHg; 95% CI 1.80–11.1) and diastolic BP (3.50 mmHg; 95% CI 0.89–
6.10).55 Increasing potassium intake, especially from fruits and vegetables, is therefore
recommended for the prevention and treatment of hypertension.14,43
that a reduction in alcohol intake (median: 76%, range: 16%–100%) was associated with
significant reductions in mean systolic BP (3.31 mmHg, 95% CI 2.52–4.10) and diastolic BP
(2.04 mmHg, 95% CI 1.49–2.58).78 A dose-response relationship was observed between
mean percentage reduction in alcohol intake and mean reduction in BP. Moreover, the
effects of reducing alcohol intake on BP were enhanced in those with higher BP at baseline.
A recent meta-analysis of 36 trials with 2,865 participants showed that a reduction in alcohol
intake was not associated with a significant reduction in BP in individuals who drank two or
fewer drinks per day. However, a 50% reduction in alcohol intake was significantly
associated with a 5.50 (95% CI 4.30 to 6.70) mmHg lower systolic BP and a 3.97 (3.25 to
4·70) mmHg lower diastolic BP in participants who drank six or more drinks per day.79
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Epidemiological studies have consistently identified a direct relationship between BMI and
BP that is continuous and almost linear, with no evidence of a threshold.87,88 The
relationship between BP and waist-to-hip ratio or computed tomographic measures of
central fat distribution is even stronger than the relationship between BP and BMI.89
Attributable risk estimates from the Nurses’ Health Study suggest that obesity is
responsible for about 40% of hypertension80, whereas the Framingham Offspring Study
suggested that obesity is responsible for 78% of hypertension in men and 65% of
hypertension in women.
increased physical activity, or both, reduced systolic BP by 4.44 mmHg (95% CI 2.95–
5.93) and diastolic BP by 3.57 mmHg (95% CI 2.25–4.88). BP reductions were 1.05 mmHg
(95%
CI 0.66–1.43) systolic and 0.92 mmHg (95% CI 0.55–1.28) diastolic when expressed per
kilogram of weight loss.92
Unhealthy diet
In addition to sodium and potassium, several macronutrients are associated with BP,
including dietary fiber,93,94 protein,95,96 and fat.97,98 The Global Burden of Diseases
Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group examined two different dietary patterns
worldwide: one based on relatively high consumption of ten healthy items (fruits,
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vegetables, beans and legumes, nuts and seeds, whole grains, milk, total polyunsaturated
fatty acids, fish, plant omega-3s, and dietary fiber); and another based on relatively low
consumption of seven unhealthy items (unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar
sweetened beverages, saturated fat, trans fat, dietary cholesterol, and sodium). Diets and
their trends were very heterogeneous across world regions. For example, both types of
dietary patterns improved in high-income countries but worsened in some low-income
countries in Africa and Asia. Middle-income countries showed the largest improvement in
dietary patterns based on healthy items but the largest deterioration in dietary patterns based
on unhealthy items.99
The efficacy of dietary interventions for blood pressure lowering has been investigated in
randomized controlled trials. For example, in the DASH trial, 459 adults with systolic BP
<160 mmHg and diastolic BP of 80–95 mm Hg were randomly assigned to 8 weeks of a
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control diet low in fruits, vegetables, and dairy products with a fat content typical of the
average diet in the US, a diet rich in fruits and vegetables or a DASH diet rich in fruit,
vegetables and low-fat dairy products with a total fat and saturated fat content lower than
the
typical US diet.100 Sodium intake and body weight were maintained at constant levels.
Compared to the control diet, the DASH diet significantly reduced systolic and diastolic BP
by 5.5 mmHg and 3.0 mmHg (both P<0.001), respectively, whereas the fruit and vegetable
diet reduced systolic and diastolic BP by 2.8 mmHg (P<0.001) and 1.1 mm Hg (P=0.07),
respectively. In participants with hypertension, the DASH diet reduced systolic and
diastolic BP by 11.4 mmHg and 5.5 mmHg compared with the control diet (both P<0.001).
The DASH diet was also effective in reducing BP in normotensive participants, but the BP
reductions were smaller than those seen in hypertensive participants [(3.5 mmHg (P<0.001)
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and 2.1 mmHg (P=0.003) compared with the control diet].100 These data indicate that the
DASH diet provides an effective nutritional approach to prevent and treat hypertension.
Vegetarian and Mediterranean dietary patterns are also associated with BP reduction. 101,102
A meta-analysis of 7 randomized controlled trials with a total of 311 participants reported
that vegetarian diets (defined as diets that never or rarely included meat) were associated
with a mean reduction in systolic BP of 4.8 mmHg (95% CI 3.1–6.6) and diastolic BP of 2.2
mmHg (95% CI 1.1–3.5).101 Mediterranean diets are characterized by moderate fat intake
(primarily from olive oil and nuts), low consumption of red meat, and high consumption of
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Mills et al. Page 13
In summary, numerous lifestyle risk factors are associated with BP levels and
hypertension. These risk factors vary by world region and this heterogeneity likely
underlies some of the disparities in hypertension trends and prevalence worldwide.
Lifestyle interventions that target these risk factors could therefore play an important role
in reducing global disparities in hypertension.22 Implementing lifestyle interventions in
HICs has contributed to reductions in hypertension prevalence and BP levels.43 However,
there is limited data on implementing lifestyle intervention programs in LMIC
communities.
Several other potential risk factors for hypertension have been proposed, including cigarette
smoking, air pollution, psychological stress, sleep disorders and noise exposure. 103–114
Cigarette smoking has been shown to be associated with an immediate acute increase in
BP, mainly through stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system.103,104,107 However, its
long- term effects on BP and incidence of hypertension are inconclusive.107,108,115 Several
prospective cohort studies have reported a weak positive association between cigarette
smoking and risk of hypertension. For example, in 13,529 men from the Physicians’ Health
Study, former and current smoking were significantly associated with an 8% (RR 1.08,
95% CI 1.01 to 1.15) and 15% (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.27) increase in the risk of
incident hypertension, respectively, compared with never smoking over a median follow-up
of 14.5 years.107 In a prospective cohort study of 28,236 women from the Women’s Health
Study, multiple-adjusted hazard ratios of developing hypertension among former smokers
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and current smokers of 1–14 and ≥15 cigarettes per day were 1.03 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.08),
1.02
(95% CI 0.92 to 1.13), and 1.11 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.21), respectively, compared to never
smokers.108 However, direct causality between cigarette smoking and hypertension
cannot be established because cessation of chronic smoking does not lower BP.116
The association between exposure to ambient air pollutants and risk of hypertension has
been investigated in epidemiological studies.109,110 A meta-analysis that examined the
effects of a 10 µg/m3 increase in exposure to air pollutants on hypertension, reported that
short-term exposure over several days to sulfur dioxide (OR=1.046, 95% CI 1.012–1.081),
particulate matter with a diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) (OR=1.069, 95% CI 1.003–1.141),
and particulate matter with a diameter of ≤10 µm (PM10) (OR=1.024, 95% CI 1.016–1.032)
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were all significantly associated with hypertension (based on data from 7 studies). 109 Long-
term exposure over years to nitrogen oxide (OR=1.034, 95% CI 1.005–1.063) and PM10
(OR=1.054, 95% CI 1.036–1.072) were also significantly associated with hypertension
(based on data from 11 studies). These results suggest that short-term and long-term
exposure to air pollutants might increase the risk of hypertension. Future studies are needed
to assess the impacts of chronic exposure to air pollution on global disparities of
hypertension.117,118
Psychosocial stress and rotating shift work have also been reported to be associated with
Nat Rev Nephrol. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2021 March
risk of hypertension.111,112 In a meta-analysis of two observational studies with 622
participants,
mental stress was associated with an increased risk of hypertension (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.65–
3.49, p < 0.001).111 However, a meta-analyses of 15 trials with 902 participants testing the
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shown to lower BP and CVD risk in randomized clinical trials.30,31,120,121 Despite these
effective interventions, hypertension control remains unacceptably low, particularly in
LMICs.3 The most recent global estimates suggest that in 2010, only 45.6% of people with
hypertension were aware of their condition, only 36.9% were receiving treatment, and only
13.8% had achieved BP control (defined as systolic BP <140 mmHg and diastolic BP <90
mmHg.3 Moreover, HICs had approximately twice the proportion of hypertension
awareness and treatment and four times the proportion of hypertension control than that of
LMICs, in which the proportion of BP control was only 7.7% in 2010.3 Between 2000 and
2010, HICs experienced substantial improvements in the proportions of hypertension
awareness, treatment, and control. In the same period, awareness and treatment increased
much more modestly in LMICs and the proportion of patients with hypertension and
controlled BP decreased slightly (Table 3).3 Similar patterns were observed in the baseline
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data from the PURE study in which hypertension awareness, treatment, and control were
lower in communities in low-income countries (LICs) than in those in HICs.11
hypertension, 17.3% of those with hypertension were not receiving treatment, and 46.3% of
those with hypertension who were receiving treatment did not have controlled BP (systolic
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BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg). This program demonstrated that BP screening
in convenience samples can be cost-effective and can identify large numbers of individuals
who could benefit from initiation or enhancement of antihypertensive treatment.122
95% CI, −8.0 to −2.0 mmHg). Patient-level strategies resulted in systolic BP reductions of
−3.9 mmHg (95% CI, −5.4 to −2.3 mm Hg) for health coaching and −2.7 mmHg (95% CI,
−3.6 to −1.7 mm Hg) for home BP monitoring. Similar trends were reported for diastolic BP
reductions. Strategies that targeted provider-level barriers only, including provider training,
audit and feedback, and electronic decision support systems, did not result in significant BP
reductions.
intervention over 18 months, significantly lowered systolic BP by 6.6 mmHg (95% CI, 4.6–
8.6; P <0.001) and diastolic BP by 5.4 mmHg (95% CI, 4.0–6.8 mmHg; P <0.001) in low-
income patients in Argentina.126 This trial indicated that a community health worker-led
multifaceted intervention was effective for improving patients’ adherence to
antihypertensive medication and physicians’ adherence to clinical guidelines resulting in a
significant reduction in BP and an increase in hypertension control among low-income
patients with hypertension. Widespread scale-up of this proven effective intervention in
LMICs should result in a substantial reduction in uncontrolled hypertension and related
CVD and premature death.
incremental improvements in the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.0013 to 0.0027 for
mortality and 0.0031 to 0.0075 for CVD.128 However, base models that included single
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systolic BP measure already had an AUC of 0.83 for mortality and 0.84 for CVD. Home
BP measurements (HBPM) are a more economical option than ABPM and are a useful
strategy to overcome patient-level barriers to BP control by empowering patients.129 Use of
self HBPM resulted in a significant reduction in systolic and diastolic BP among patients
with hypertension in randomized clinical trials.125,130 Out-of-office BP measurements are
recommended for diagnostic confirmation to avoid white coat hypertension and masked
hypertension and for optimal titration of medications to overcome therapeutic inertia.130
death over the lifespan, preventive efforts should start in early childhood. Innovative
strategies for early detection and optimal treatment of hypertension, such as a multifaceted
intervention approach, should be implemented in communities to reduce the burden of this
condition.
135 The global financial burden of high BP in 2001 was estimated to be around 370 billion
US dollars or about 10% of the world’s overall healthcare expenditure.135 However, large
regional variations in healthcare costs were observed. For example, high BP accounted for
22.6% of all healthcare expenditures in Eastern Europe and Central Asia but only 7.2% in
East Asia and Pacific.135 To the best of our knowledge, no more recent estimates of the
global financial burden of hypertension are available.
More recent national and regional estimates of the financial burden of hypertension are
available for some HICs, although they are not always consistent owing to methodologic
differences.136–139 A study that used a nationally representative database, the Medical
Expenditure Panel Survey, estimated that the average annual adjusted incremental
expenditure for patients with hypertension was $1,920 higher compared to individuals
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without hypertension in the US between 2003 and 2014. Based on an average annual
number of individuals with hypertension in the US (n= 68,420,747) from NHANES during
this period, the estimated adjusted annual incremental cost is $131 billion higher for the
hypertensive adult population compared with the non-hypertensive population..136 Using
the same database, another study analyzed changes in medical expenditures associated with
hypertension between 2000 and 2013. Estimated annual medical expenditures per person
associated with hypertension in 2000–2001 ($1,399) were not significantly different from
those in 2012–2013 ($1,494), but annual national spending for patients with hypertension
increased significantly from US$58.7 billion in 2000–2001 to US$109.1 billion in 2012–
2013, mainly owing to an increase in the number of treated patients.137 In addition to lower
estimates of medical costs per patient, the underestimated prevalence of hypertension in the
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Payments for prescription medications account for a large proportion of the medical
expenditures associated with hypertension. The cost of hypertension medication
expenditures in the US in 2007 was estimated to be $68 billion based on an analysis of data
for 21,782 adults (aged ≥18 years) who participated in the Medical Expenditure Panel
Survey.139 A study that used data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey reported
that annual costs for hypertension-related hospitalizations in the US increased from $40
billion (5.1% of total hospital costs) during 1979–1982 to $113 billion (15.1% of total
hospital costs) during 2003–2006.138 The American Heart Association projected that by
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2030, the direct costs of hypertension in the US population would increase to $200 billion
and the indirect costs to $40 billion.140
In a study of 314, 622 beneficiaries of the medical insurance system in Japan, inpatient
medical expenditure attributable to hypertension represented 7.2% and 6.9% of the total
medical expenditure for men and 2.8% and 3.8% of the total medical expenditure for
women aged 40–54 years and 55–69 years, respectively.141 Estimates from Mexico suggest
that combined direct and indirect costs attributable to hypertension amounted to nearly $2.5
billion in 2007, which was between 6% and 8% of the healthcare budget.122 The economic
burden of hypertension in Mexico grew by 24% between 2010 and 2012, and the total direct
and indirect costs of hypertension in 2011 were estimated to exceed $5.7 billion.123
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The financial implications of hypertension in LICs are of particular concern because of the
rapid increase in the prevalence and absolute burden of hypertension and the low current and
projected healthcare spending in these regions.4,124 In 2016, only 0.4% of global health
spending was in LICs even though these countries comprise 10% of the global population.
124 Projections suggest that by 2050, only 0.6% of health spending will occur in countries
that are currently classed as LICs although these countries will comprise 15.7% of the global
population.124 Many LICs currently rely on development assistance for health spending
from international agencies and private philanthropy, which is primarily focused on
infectious diseases and could be less sustainable for chronic disease control.124 Large-scale
studies using standardized methods are needed to improve understanding of the economic
costs of hypertension, particularly in LMICs.
In general, interventions are considered to be reasonably cost-effective if they cost less than
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US$50,000–75,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY); however, payers routinely cover
treatments that cost >$100,000 per QALY.145 Several analyses have concluded that all
antihypertensive medications are cost effective compared with no treatment (placebo). 146 In
a meta-analysis of 14 studies, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of all
antihypertensive medications adjusted to 2015 US dollars was $19,945 per QALY
gained.146 The SPRINT trial reported an ICER of $28,000 per QALY gained for the
intensive BP intervention compared to the standard intervention if the treatment effects
persisted for the
remaining lifetime of the patient.147 Antihypertensive treatment might be even more cost
effective in LMICs than in HICs. For example, treating all adults with hypertension and
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prior CVD for secondary prevention was projected to be cost saving in China with an ICER
in 2015 of Int$9,000 per QALY gained in those with BP ≥160/100 mmHg and Int$13,000
per QALY gained in those with BP ≥140/90 mm Hg.148 Moreover, patient-centered values,
such as health-related quality of life, productivity, severity of disease, and equity, are
important to factor into analyses when determining the financial burden associated with
hypertension and weighing the costs of prevention and treatment versus the costs associated
with BP-related CVD.149,150
FUTURE PERSPECTIVES
Without intervention, the prevalence and absolute burden of hypertension is expected to
continue to increase, particularly in LMICs.3,4,12,13 Consequentially, BP-related
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cardiovascular and kidney disease will become even greater health and financial burdens
worldwide.2 Economic development and urbanization have resulted in rapid epidemiological
and nutrition transitions, i.e., decreasing infant mortality and infectious diseases and
increasing life expectancy and chronic diseases, in many LMICs, including China and India.
151–153 The prevalence of hypertension is high and increasing in these countries, whereas the
rates of awareness, treatment and control are low.3,20 Lifestyle risk factors for hypertension,
such as obesity, high dietary sodium intake, low dietary potassium intake, alcohol
consumption, lack of physical activity and unhealthy diet have reached epidemic proportions
in LMICs.154,155 National programs for the prevention, detection, and treatment of
hypertension in LMICs are needed to slow and reverse the current trends in the hypertension
epidemic. In addition, community-based intervention programs are needed to reduce health
disparities and improve hypertension prevention and control in low-income and ethnic
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CONCLUSIONS
Although the estimated global mean BP appears to be fairly stable, the prevalence and
absolute burden of hypertension is increasing globally, especially in LMICs. In 2010, an
estimated 1.39 billion adults worldwide had hypertension of whom 1.04 billion were in
LMICs and 349 million in HICs.3 Elevated BP is strongly, independently, and linearly
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associated with the risk of CVD, CKD, and all-cause mortality. Although effective lifestyle
modifications and pharmaceutical treatments are available, proportion of hypertension
awareness, treatment, and control are low. Hypertension, therefore, remains a global public
health challenge. Few comprehensive assessments of the economic impact of hypertension
in global populations exist. It was estimated that the global financial burden of
hypertension was about 10% of the world’s overall healthcare expenditures, varying from
about 22.6% of all healthcare expenditures in Eastern Europe and Central Asia to 7.2% in
East Asia and
Pacific. Future studies are warranted to develop multifaceted implementation strategies for
hypertension prevention and control, especially in LICs and low-income populations, and
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Acknowledgements
The authors’ work is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of
Health (NIH) under Award Number P20GM109036 and by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of NIH
under Award Number R01HL133790. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not
necessarily represent the official views of NIH.
Glossary of Terms
Pooling analysis
A type of meta-analysis in which investigators have access to and analyze the
original individual level data from participating study
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Network meta-analysis
A type of meta-analysis in which multiple treatments are being compared using both direct
comparisons of interventions within randomized controlled trials and indirect comparisons
across trials based on a common comparator
Cross-over design
A type of clinical trial in which each participant is randomized to a sequence of two or more
treatments; therefore, the participant is used as his or her own control
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Weighted mean
A type of average that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the
final average, some data points contribute more than others
Dose-response relationship
A relationship in which a change in amount, intensity, or duration of exposure is
associated with either increasing or decreasing risk of the outcome
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Convenience samples
A type of non-probability sample in which the study participants are taken from a group of
people easy to contact or to reach
A measure of the burden of disease on a defined population which equals the sum of years
of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). One DALY equals one lost
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KEY POINTS
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leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and premature death worldwide.
•
absolute burden of hypertension is rising globally, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).
nt, and control of hypertension are unacceptably low worldwide, particularly in LMICs.
•
actors, including high sodium intake, low potassium intake, obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet, are recommended for th
mentation strategies for hypertension prevention and control are needed to address barriers at the patient, provider, system, and community levels.
essments are needed to evaluate the economic• impact of hypertension worldwide.
•
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•
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Figure 1. Changes in mean estimated blood pressure by world region between 1975 and 2015.
A. Change in systolic blood pressure (BP) in men. B. Change in systolic BP in women.
C. Change in diastolic BP in men. D. Change in diastolic BP in Women. Data obtained
from reference4.
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Estimated prevalence of hypertension in high-income and low and middle-income countries in 2000 and 2010
Mills et al.
Population 2000 2010
Men Women Men Women
Age-standardized prevalence % (95% CIs)
Global 26.4 (24.6–28.2) 25.1 (23.4–26.9) 31.9 (30.3–33.5) 30.1 (28.5–31.6)
High-income countries 35.1 (29.8–40.3) 26.9 (22.6–31.3) 31.6 (29.6–33.6) 25.3 (23.9–26.7)
27.
Nat Rev Nephrol. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2021 March
Low and middle-income countries 23.4 (21.6–25.2) 24.1 (22.4–25.9) 31.7 (29.7–33.6) 31.2 (29.3–33.1)
Absolute numbers in millions (95% CIs)
Global 457.0 (422.9, 491.2) 464.1 (432.0, 496.2) 694.4 (658.7–730.1) 693.5 (659.5–727.5)
High-income countries 162.8 (140.7–184.9) 159.5 (138.4–180.6) 174.2 (165.3–183.2) 174.7 (167.2–182.1)
Low- and middle-income countries 294.3 (268.2–320.3) 304.6 (280.5–328.8) 520.1 (485.6–554.7) 518.8 (485.7–552.0)
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Table 2.
Estimated prevalence of hypertension in the general populations of the US in 2013–2016 and China in 2012–2015
Mills et al.
Population Age-standardized prevalence of hypertension (% (95% CI)
*
Systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg and/or use of antihypertensive medications.
†
Systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg and/or use of antihypertensive
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Table 3.
Hypertension control in high income and low and middle income countries in 2000 and 2010
Mills et al.
2000 2010
Population
Men Women Men Women
Age-standardized proportion of hypertension control in all patients with hypertension (% (95% CI))
Global 10.0 (4.0–15.9) 13.4 (6.5–20.2) 10.9 (7.7–14.2) 16.8 (13.1–20.5)
High-income countries 15.5 (2.3–28.7) 20.3 (4.8–35.8) 24.6 (16.0–33.2) 32.2 (23.6–40.8)
27.
Nat Rev Nephrol. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2021 March
Low and middle-income countries 6.9 (1.3–12.6) 9.7 (3.2–16.3) 5.2 (2.3–8.1) 10.2 (6.4–14.0)
Age-standardized proportion of hypertension control in patients with treated hypertension (% (95% CI))
Global 34.2 (24.1–44.2) 33.7 (23.2–44.2) 35.8 (30.8–40.7) 38.0 (33.2–42.8)
High-income countries 38.6 (21.1–56.0) 38.6 (19.8–57.4) 49.1 (40.7–57.4) 51.5 (43.1–59.9)
Low and middle-income countries 29.5 (19.9–39.2) 29.2 (18.9–39.6) 23.4 (17.9–28.9) 28.1 (22.6–33.7)
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