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04/JAN/2023
EUR: set to recover following yesterday’s loss | DXY to pull back for testing
Technically speaking, EURUSD is poised to retest 1.064 in the next couple of days.
Lessons learned:
- For every strong bull in DXY (marubozu), the next few days will be attempts to reverse this new bull. Be
confident that it will be the case. In this situation, wait for at least 2 H1 candlesticks to form to exit all your
orders.
Only buy reversals when candlesticks that indicate price stability on H1 chart. Should you attempt this
situation, stop out fast as price throws/pulls back
When buying the dips or selling tops, try to look for ending diagonals in elliot waves, just care about the overall
picture. This pattern works BEST THE FIRST TIME IT FORMS with GOLD, EURUSD | NOT SO WELL WITH CROSSES
(EURCHF)
When patterns are forming, wait for them to finish the day (1D)
PLAN THÁNG 01 – BUY USD QUA KÊNH USDCHF, BUY THẤP VÀNG (1825), SELL CAO VÀNG (1863, 1870): FAIL
Từ đây đến ngày FOMC thì vàng sẽ tăng lấy đỉnh, phân phối,
1H
5m
USD/JPY Daily Chart: Chờ Sell on Rally Zone 133/134 Target 125/126 được ko mọi người, kỷ nguyên lãi
suất âm của BOJ sẽ kết thúc trong năm nay khi người kế nhiệm Kuroda có thể xoay trục chính sách tiền tệ!
06/JAN/2023
Yesterday ADP Jobs report was higher than expected DXY rose whereas EUR dropped. JOLTS was much higher
the day before. BECAUSE this is new year and traders look for fresh clue about US economic health, ADP is a great
indicator that signals NFP on Friday (06/01/2023). If all goes well, the DXY will gain further strength, and will show
signs of correction next week.
I expect EUR to drop to 1.045 or 1.03. I will try to find further entry setups to maximise profits.
Today I lost 30% of my account. I should have been more cautious, avoiding trading on NFP days. I should have
closed all orders and taken the profit at $200. Instead, the broker deliberately widened the spread and forced me
out with only $88 of profits. I went mad and decided to revenge and take back what I lost, entering too many
orders hoping that upbeat NFP would bring back what I lost. God didn’t bless me, and I didn’t consult material
well enough to make a timely U-turn to change the course like I did yesterday (I’d thought dollar would have
fallen more miserably, but in the end, after statistics was released, I abandoned my original plan and changed
course. Today I didn’t replicate that mentality, and the hourly earnings which unexpectedly dropped and led
market makers to think that the FED won’t tighten the monetary policy as seriously as they would. I could have
escaped with some profits or a breakeven when the market was preparing for upbeat ISM Non-manufacturing. I
was so confident that US wouldn’t disappoint, but it did disappoint with miserable figures, and the greenback
couldn’t sustain momentum. Now it is retreating into the negative region where it would likely decline further in
the next few weeks until the FOMC meeting. I will be range-trading aggressively to recover the losses.
I desperately need someone to guide me, but I have to be on my own all this time throughout.
TWO KEY WORDS: BE CAUTIOUS AND FLEXIBLE WITH YOUR PLANS. THEY CAN CHANGE WITHIN ANY MINUTES
KEY WORDS: PLAN AHEAD, BE CAUTIOUS, BE FLEXIBLE, BE CALM, BE HUMBLE, NOT BE GREEDY
The dollar was strong heading into non-farm payrolls in an indication that market participants had been
swayed by this week's ADP report and were leaning towards a stronger headline. Indeed the headline
came in stronger and with a drop in unemployment but the market instead focused on significantly slower
wage growth and the reaction was dovish, with the US dollar sagging.
However that reaction didn't last long. US equities opened strong but quickly gave back all the gains and
some risk aversion kicked in sending EUR/USD down to 1.0510 from 1.0544 at the post-jobs peak. Other
pairs also experienced varying degrees of retracements.
The final big twist came on a terrible ISM services report. That's a forward-looking indicator and it gave
the market confidence that the Fed is nearing the end of the line with hikes. Treasury yields crumbled
alongside the dollar and from 1.0510 the euro rallied all the way to 1.0646.
The USD/JPY range was also extremely wide today from 134.77 just before non-farm payrolls all the
way down to a late-day session low of 132.07.
The loonie was also in focus as USD/CAD rallied early in the day to 1.3650 then tumbled to 1.3439
because of an extremely strong Canadian jobs report. Pricing now suggests an additional 25 bps hike from
the BOC later this month. Notably, CAD significantly underperformed its commodity cousins despite the
strong report. Some of that is China-leverage for the antipodeans but there's also the growing risk that the
BOC overtightens and housing/consumer spending collapses.
3
The mood in markets has improved further with S&P 500 futures up 44 points now to 3872.
Revisions to average hourly earnings data paint a marginally less worrisome picture for the Fed on wages than the
Nov report
The upturn in wage growth in Nov (originally reported as +0.6%) was revised (to +0.4%)
The 4.6% annual wage growth in Dec was the lowest since Aug '21
This has been an impressive reaction and the market is now thinking the Fed could stick the landing.
Tags
Trading news. If there are multiple news on the day, and the news of today could predictably continue yesterday’s
news strength, then wait for how the market reacted according to the H1 candlestick before jumping on the trend
when it attempts to reverse for a retest
The US dollar tends to strengthen in January; with an average gain of 0.44% over the past two decades,
it's the second-best month for the dollar index.
On net, EUR/JPY or CAD/JPY shorts are a spot for seasonal traders to watch. Technically, CAD/JPY is
in an area of a technical void after touching a nine-month low:
Article in German
In the context of seasonality, you may - just like most investors - primarily think of commodities
and stock indexes.
However, there are seasonal patterns in many other markets and instruments as well, ranging
from individual stocks to currencies.
For instance, are you aware of the fact that an exciting seasonal pattern is currently unfolding
with the US dollar? Even if you are not focusing on FOREX markets in your investing activity,
the seasonal trends of the US dollar are probably important for you as an investor in stocks or
bonds.
Let us therefore take a look at the seasonal pattern of the US Dollar Index.
The US Dollar Index directly shows the trend in the US dollar's external value
The US Dollar Index is an index that represents the value of the US dollar, in the form of a
basket containing six currencies:
Source: Wikipedia
Thus the USD Index (DXY) directly shows the trend in the external value of the US dollar. It
rises when the US dollar appreciates, and conversely declines when the US dollar weakens.
The US dollar index is therefore also well suited for seasonal analysis of the US dollar. How
does the US dollar look seasonally until the end of the year?
The bar chart below shows you the return of the US Dollar Index for the past 50 years, for the
period between December 1 and January 1 of the following year. In red you can see the years
in which there were losses, in blue those in which there were gains.
Return in percent of the US Dollar Index between December 1 and January 1, for every
year since 1971
Most of the time, it went down sharply. Source: Seasonax
As you can see, most of the bars point downwards. In 34 of the 50 cases, the US Dollar fell until
the end of the year. Noticeably, this has also been the case for the past four years. On average,
a decline of just under 1% was moderate, as is usual for currency markets.
But what does the seasonal pattern look like in detail? The seasonal chart below shows the
typical pattern of the US dollar in the course of a calendar year for this purpose. It has been
calculated as the average of the returns generated over the past 50 years. The horizontal axis
shows the time of the year, the vertical axis the level of the seasonal index. Thus one can
discern the US dollar's seasonal pattern in the course of a calendar year at a glance.
There is a trend reversal in the USD Index right at the turn of the year. Source: Seasonax
As can be seen, there is a seasonal decline in the USD Index as the end of the year
approaches. It loses ground particularly quickly in the second half of December. Thereafter, it
typically appreciates again in January (turning point highlighted in the chart).
If you look at the chart closely, you can see that the trend reversal occurs right at the turn of the
year. This is quite conspicuous – there has to be a reason for it!
The fact that the trend in the US dollar reverses precisely at the turn of the year already
provides a strong hint regarding the reason for this seasonal pattern: it has to be related to the
end of the calendar year. What happens at that point in time? It is the balance sheet date!
The weakness in the US dollar at the end of the year is driven by US tax legislation. Many US-
based companies save on their tax liabilities by reporting small amounts of cash at the balance
sheet date at the end of the year. It can be worthwhile to shift money to the accounts of
overseas subsidiaries.
The resultant additional demand for foreign currencies affects the exchange rate. This is why
the US dollar typically declines at the end of the year.
After the turn of the year, the tide immediately turns. Companies transfer sizeable amounts back
to the US.
Thus there is a solid fundamental reason for the pattern in the US dollar at the end of the year.
It is driven by tax-related strategies of US companies.
If you want to find out, navigate to www.seasonax.com! There you can quickly examine the
seasonality of individual currencies – or of any other instrument you are interested in – along
with overviews of pattern returns in individual years.
Yours sincerely,
Dimitri Speck
Founder and Head Analyst of Seasonax
Lạm phát Hoa Kì là vấn đề được quan tâm hàng đầu khi mà lạm phát 2022 là kỉ lục, dù vài tháng cuối năm
2022 có dịu xuống nhưng lạm phát tại HK vẫn còn ở mức rất cao. Dù ở kì FOMC tháng 12/2022 Fed đã phát
đi thông điệp điều hành chính sách tiền tệ 2023 với mức Lãi suất Usd sẽ được nâng lên ở mức trần là
khoảng 5.2% nhưng thị trường lo ngại rằng đây chưa phải là mức Ls cao nhất và Fed chỉ đang tìm cách trấn
an thị trường !?
Nhìn vào biểu đồ tương quan giữa lạm phát và lãi suất sẽ thấy xuyên suốt chiều dài lịch sử thì để dập lạm
phát thì bắt buộc lãi suất phải được đẩy lên cao hơn lạm phát và duy trì trong khoảng thời gian dài thì mới
dập được lạm phát, không có ngoại lệ nào cả. Vì thế nếu lãi suất Usd năm nay 2023 tiếp tục tăng cao lên
7,8%/ năm thì cũng không có gì lạ.
Nếu Ls Usd lên 7% thì lúc này đầu cơ vào tỉ giá Usd sẽ là ưu tiên hàng đầu của giới kinh doanh, tài chính.
Doanh nghiệp sẽ chịu ảnh hưởng rất nặng, thua lỗ, phá sản hàng loạt là điều khó tránh khỏi. Các loại tài sản
rủi ro như chứng khoán cũng sẽ chịu chung thảm cảnh là giảm mạnh, Bất động sản cũng bất tỉnh.....
Vni 2023 dự là sẽ còn giảm sâu hơn nữa và Bds cũng đóng băng khi mà ls Usd sẽ ảnh hưởng lên dòng tiền
của Ngân hàng nhà nước Vn. Các Dn Sản xuất - xuất khẩu sẽ ảnh hưởng rất nặng, 2022 mới chỉ là khởi đầu,
2023 mới là đòn đánh chí mạng.
Khi đồng Usd quay lại thể hiện sức mạnh thì khả năng cao là các cặp tỉ giá liên quan như Eu, Gu, Au...sẽ kết
thúc nhịp hồi phục và quay lại xu hướng giảm, quay lại test đáy Mn của 2022.
Suy thoái là từ sẽ phổ biến trên các mặt báo trong năm 2023.
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