ResearchGate se acon tas and ator pts pbleton sips hnnecchat elton GEOR Acase study on flood frequency analysis 2 20,960 author Sepa Engiening Cage “Some cfthe authors ofthe publeaton ae als working on these relate projets ‘content foloning ts page was pad by Sida Muar Pts on 8 May 204International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 8, Issue 4, April 2017, pp. 1762-1767, Article ID: IICIET_08_04_199 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/LCIET/issues.asp?JType=UCIET&V Type-8&I Type—4 ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316 © IAEME Publication S Scopus Indexed A CASE STUDY ON FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS Kalpalatha.Ganamala ‘UG-Student, Department of Civil Engineering, KL University, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India P. Sundar Kumar Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, KL University, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India ABSTRACT Flood frequency analysis is the most important statistical technique in understanding the nature and magnitude of high discharge in a river. The objective of frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of events to their frequency of ‘occurrence through probability distribution. The scale and shape parameters of the distribution were estimated using method of moments. The study which was carried in Vijayawada aimed at Prediction of Flood frequency analysis of Krishna river of Prakasam barrage at Vijayawada using Gumbel's, California, Hazen's methods. These are estimated using different flood data from 1990-2014 of Prakasam Barrage which were collected from Water Resources Department of Vijayawada. The magnitude of the flood out comes to be for 20 years and 50 years is1823.33TMC and 1873.34 TMC. Key words: Flood frequency analysis, Probability distribution, Gumbel's method, Krishna River. Cite this Article: Kalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar, A Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8(4),. 2017, pp. 1762-1767. http:/;www. iaeme.com/LICLE Tissues. asp?/Type=UICIET&V Type=88dT ype=4 1. INTRODUCTION In the present world Land and Water are the most important things. In India, there is four major rivers, They are Ganga, Godavari, Brahmaputra and Krishna river. The total length of the river is 1300 Km. It starts fiom Mahabaleswar in Maharashtra and ends at Hamsaladeevi near the Bay of Bengal. Vijayawada is the largest city on Krishna river. The length of the Prakasam Barrage 13 Km and flood bank is 6.40 Km which creates havoc in flood season which will start from June to December. The areas of Krishna river are subjected to flooding during monsoons. The maximum flood discharge is during the year 1903 is 11.90 lakh cusec. Ahmad et. al, 2010,Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is the estimation of how often a specified http://www. iaeme.com/LICIET/index.asp (ve) editor@iaeme.comA Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis, event will occur. Before the estimation can be done, analyzing the stream flows data are important in order to obtain the probability distribution of flood. Todorovie,1971, Present’s, that the Gumbel's (1) distribution is suitable for estimate maximum type events, Burges,1978, has discussed two methods for estimation of the third parameter (a) of log-normal type IIL The estimator of (a) using mean, and standard deviation are found to be more variant and have a larger bias for distributions of interest in operational hydrology than the estimator using mean ,standard deviation, and skew. The model parameters set up can then be utilized to foresee the extraordinary occasions of expansive repeat interim (Pegram and Parak, 2004), A few analysts have examined distinctive circulations for application to surge recurrence investigation (Cunnane, 1989; Grehys, 1996; Blazkova and Beven, 1997; Saf, 2008). The accessible verifiable hydrometric information, particularly in creating nations, can be short, constrained or non-existent (Fill and Stedinger, 1995) to the degree that it is a long way from being illustrative of the area under thought, or getting it might be costly, troublesome, or tedious (Oztekin et al. 2007; Patel, 2007). Hydrologist thinks that its hard to make the exact expectation of surge appraisals utilizing restricted notable data of overflow, precipitation, waterway stages. (Adeboye and Alatise, 2007). The dispersions recommended for fitting, surge extremes information have been numerous (Singh and Strupezewski, 2002). (Oztekin et al. 2007) connected parameter estimation strategies to an extensive rundown of various circulations. This review in this way applies the Gumbel factual dispersion for surge recurrence investigation. To the best of the creator's information, no past reviews in the region have endeavored to model surge releases utilizing the Gumbel dispersion, a stochastic creating structure that deliver irregular results and surge streams fit Gumbel dissemination display. To estimate the flood frequency of river adopted a method called Gumbel's method which gives the future prediction of flood frequency. The main objective is to analyze the future flood prediction, 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS 2.1, Flood Frequency Analysis Flood frequency analysis gives the probability model curve to the annual flood peaks which are recorded by the period observation and data of flood occurred in25 years (1994-2015). This method is useful to predict recurrence interval and helps to cause no damage to the public and government properties. There are different types of methods for the estimation of Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA).Before estimating the flood, analyzing is important to obtain Probability distribution. The terms return period and recurrence interval are used to denote the reciprocal of the annual probability of exceedance. Table I shows the calculation of recurrence interval using California method, Gumbel's method, Hazens method. http:!www.iaeme.com/LICIET/index.asp editor@iaeme.comKalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar Table 1 Calculation of Recurrence Interval Using Different Methods 5 Gumbel's Method | Hazens Method | California Method S.No | Dischargem’ee Tao et ‘s) T 1419.06 8928 30 25 | 2 1230.27 om 16.66 125 | 3 1215 tor 0 335 4 120727 7352 1a 6.25 3 32 333 355 5 @ 74.17 4508 4345 166 7 SE 3.8167 3.846 3371 © S67 329 Sas Zs ° 384.76 291 2.941 27 | 10 357.12 258 2.631 25 | ii 50992 234 238 23 | 12 216 214 27s 2.088 13 399.16 T968 2 923 1 394.18 182 185 1785 15 367 169 17a 1-666 16 32a 15 162 T5625 7 269.05, 1.48, 1515, 1.4705 | is 24956 1a 18 1388 | 19 D149 133 1351 131s 20 70.86 1.2575 T2382 125 31 08.98 L197 T2319 Lo 2 S327 Ta 1162 1136 23 14.41 1.08 Li 1.08) | 2a 10.05 1.08 1.06 1.04 25 218 102 I 7 By using all these methods, the probability curve is determined, therefore Gumbel's method is used for estimation of flood frequency. 2000.00 100.00 | — d i 1600.00 © gumbels method 1400.00 + 5 @ californiamethod 200.00 | hy 1900.00 A. hazens method 2 800.00 — Log. (gumbels method) 600.00 © «000 Log. (california method) © 200.00 Log. {hazens method} 0.00 o 20 40 60 80 100 Return period for California, Gumbel's method, Hazens method Figure 1 Comparison of the Probability positions using Gumbel's, california, hazens method. 2.1.1. Gumbel's Method The General principle involved in the method is of the observed flood peaks could be calculated, The curve of probabilities versus flood peaks (f Vs. x) is then plotted on log- probability paper and a smooth curve is fitted covering all points be extrapolation of the curve extreme values could be obtained. bttp:!www.iaeme.com/IICIET/index.aspA Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis, This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel and is known as Gumbel's Method. It is widely used probability distribution functions for extreme values in hydrological studies or prediction of flood peaks, maximum rainfall etc. The method and procedure for calculating the design flood in any return period. The hypothetical plotting by Gumbel (1945) is in light of the presumption that the watched esteem is the most likely, or modular, estimation of this rank of flood. Its arrival period is along these lines skewed towards the method of the hypothetical circulation. The Gumbel hypothesis does not have any significant bearing entirely to flood for the accompanying reasons. The Gumbel method of frequency analysis is based on extreme value distribution and uses frequency factors developed for theoretical distribution. By using the number of years and Gumbel's correction, calculated the Return period using equation 1 to equation 5. TN a) we where T, is return period(or)recurrence interval, N is Number of years .m is order number Afr calculation of "7,"calculate the reduced variant Yt is found With the values of Yn and Xn obtained and Yt obtained. The frequency factor Kt is calculated Yee mina) @ where ,_ve-aar(3) Standard deviation (S = v= (X? — X?), @ Probability execedance (P = =). (5) 2.1.2. Procedure of Gumbel's Method The list and the annual flood flow were arranged in the descending order and assigned as mark "m" for highest value and so on. By considering the values, calculated the retum period(or)recurrence interval and probability positions. And then calculated the Mean value 519.64, squared mean 269921.81, mean of squares 452801.33, and standard deviation for Gumbel's method 17.59. Using standard deviation and frequency factors, calculated the amount of flood discharge. The area of prakasam barrage is 252.65 Sq.km. By considering the area and the amount of flood discharge, total flood discharge is calculated. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The calculation of return period for the California method gives a maximum value of 50 and minimum value of 1.02,maximum and minimum value for Gumbel's method is 89.28 and |, and for the maximum and minimum value for Hazen's method is 25 and 1. Based on the results, the best fit method is Gumbel's method which was carried in Vijayawada aimed at Prediction of Flood frequency analysis of Krishna river of Prakasam barrage. Figurel. gives comparison between the three methods and which indicates that the data, points are very close and can be observed smooth curve. The following table2 gives the Recurrence interval for Gumbel's method and table 3 gives the probability positions for the Gumbel's method. By estimating the flood frequency in sight of the areas surrounded by Vijayawada, then the flood comes out to be for 20 years flood will be1823.33 TMC and will be the estimated flood discharge for the coming 50 years be 1873.34 TMC. http:!www.iaeme.com/LICIET/index.asp (ns) editor@iaeme.comKalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar ‘Table 2 Calculation of Recurrence Interval for Gumbel's Method Year | Flood Discharge Flood In descending | Gupels nevsod Ta os TaI0.08 wat 1531 133037 133027 Ta 992 Bak? Tai Tos i993 SHI T0727 7352 1998 iaT8.06 ou 555 1995 265 Wali 508 1396 S572 aL Sa107 1997 S876 38671 325 on 120727 sk2.76 3910 oo 948 S57. 258 2000 208 S0Lo a3 3001 a8 ais ia 02 aa a6 96 2005 an 35498 1a 3006 16.05 BHT Lo 2005 215 16 sao cn 2006 774.1 17 26805 La 2007 31.89 is 23986 ia 2008 3129 1 aay Lis 000 S012 m0 Ts 13575 2010 a6 2 58 L975 2011 maa 2 Sia7 Lid 2012 3337 3 ea Loe 2018 39.16 28 10.5 oe 201s —T 70.86 25 218 T Table 3 Calculation of Probability Positions Flowing Frobabiiy Xin descending order |, _N+1 positions x? 1419.06 | 26 20137312 123027 re 151386827 31015 Ez Ta 120737 65 TS 7500 855 oH 52 36324 wa rm BRB e189 a7 TTT24 6 38671 a3 34a228.62 SELTe 25) salou 5 S572 26 310382.05 Sov 2 26001840 1.6 33 T7776 36 oa 3 159038 70 0K iz 15887787 367 17 Tig7wTa0 2.49 is T03999.80 269.05 15 TER7.90 239.86 ig cxaxOi 221.49 i 005782 086 13 ERE a8 12 3076 389720 siz 12 Eisl R70 Taal i Has 2076 105 i Da TO an io 3s | 739 http:www.iaeme.com/ICIET/index.asp ( 1766 editor@iaeme.com‘A Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis, Table 4 Calculation of | charge Using Various Return Periods [Return period T] Mean (X) | S(Standard | K (frequency KxS ARE KXS in years deviation) factor) (Mc) 5 319.4 17.59 0913 T5050 1744.57 10 519.64 17.59 1615 2R.AOTRS 1784.78 20) 319.64 1739) 2.289 0.26351 TR25.33 30 [519.64 17.59 3.161 | 55.60199 1873.34 4, CONCLUSIONS. According to the last 25 years history the maximum outcome in 1994 the amount of flood discharge is 1419.06 TMC. And the second maximum flood discharge is happens in 1991 with the amount of flood discharge 1230.27 TMC. By using the Gumbel’s method calculated the value for the future prediction which may include the surrounding areas of the Vijayawada. Gumbel's method is the best method for the prediction of flood in the future. The estimated flood discharge for the coming 20 years will be1823.33 TMCand will be the estimated flood discharge for the coming 50 years be 1873.34 TMC. REFERENCES a) PR) GB] 4] [5] [6] 0 [8] Pp) 10) fi) (12) U.N. Ahmad, A. Shabri, and 7 karia, “Flood frequency analysis of annual maximum stream flows using L-Moments and TL-Moments.” Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 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