ANALYSIS OF FLOOD FREQENCY CURVE

BY USING GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION

ABSTRACT

Flood hazards are world-wide considered as one of the most significant natural disasters in
terms of human impact and economic losses One method of decreasing flood damages and economic
losses is to use flood frequency analysis for deciding efficient designs of hydraulic structures. The
main scope of the work is to determine the magnitude and flood frequency analysis, using the
Gumbel distribution by Weibull formula, Gringorten formula and L-moments formula for the
Somasila Reservoir. The structure of the Somasila dam stretches  352 Mts across the Penna River
with geographical co-ordinates 14o-29’-15” N latitude 79o-18’- 25” E longitude. The reservoir has
been attacked by the number of floods during the past and present. This study can be further
extended into preparation of flood forecasting techniques and flood inundation maps for Penna
River.

Key words -: Flood Frequency, Gringorten Formula, Gumbel Distribution, L-Moments, Weibull
Formula.
1. Introduction 9-15
1.1. Background 9
1.2. Theme of the Project Work 9
1.3. Objective 10
1.4. Scope 10
1.5. Literature Review 11
2. Methodology 16-24
2.1. Planning Phase 16
2.2. Load Assessment 16
2.3. Preliminary Design 17
2.4. Idealization of Structure 17
2.5. Modeling and Analysis of Structure 18
2.6. Design and Detailing 19
2.7 Ductile Principles for Reinforcement 19
2.8. Drawings 20
2.9. Organization and Preparation of Project work Report 20
2.10. Work Schedule 23
3. Functional and Structural Planning 25-27
3.1. Functional Planning 25
3.2. Structural Planning 26
4. Load Assessment and Preliminary Design 28-39
4.1. Preliminary Design of RCC elements 28
4.2. Load Assessment 33
4.3. Idealization of Load and Load Diagram 38
5. Idealization and Analysis of Structure 40-75
5.1. Idealization of Structure 40
5.2. Load Combination 42
5.3. Analysis of Structure 43
6. Design and Detailing 76-131
6.1. Design of Slab 76
6.2. Design of Beam 83
6.3. Design of Column 94
6.4. Design of Staircase 104
6.5. Design of Basement Wall 109
6.6. Design of Shear Wall (Lift Wall) 114
6.7 Design of Foundation 121
7. Drawings 132
8. Conclusions 133
Reference
 INTRODUCTION

The most frequent catastrophic event on the planet is flooding. Due to flood, alone, two third
disaster-related damages have been observed worldwide. In India, flood is a prevalent phenomenon.
Flood Frequency Analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists for planning, designing
and management of hydraulic structures like dams, barrages ,bridges etc. In the planning, design of
water resources projects or operation of a hydro power cascade, experts are often interested to
determine the magnitude and frequency of floods that will occur at the project areas.The flood
frequency analysis is a historical data based probabilistic statistical approach. Frequency analysis
deals with the frequency of any data or group of data based on the central tendency. The flood
frequency analysis approach was constructed depending upon the annual maximum peak discharge
data of particular/specific location or rivers.

Flood frequency analysis was introduced by the E.J.Gumbel, hence the name is Gumbel’s
probability distribution method. Flood frequency analysis is an essential tool for analyzing and
prediction of floodplain or flood hazard area. It helps to reduce the flood related vulnerability and
cost of the mitigation process. It plays a vital role in providing estimates of the recurrence of floods
which is helpful in designing major constructions such as bridges, dams, levees, drains, roadways,
sewage disposal plants, waterworks and industrial structures. The hydrologist or planner have used
the flood frequency analysis technique to predict floods in specific recurrence period.
 METHODOLOGY

The Gumbel method of frequency analysis is based on extreme value distribution and
uses frequency factors developed for theoretical distribution. The method utilizes
general equation given for hydro-logic frequency analysis which is stated as below.
x = x + ∆x …(0)
Where x is magnitude of flood of some given probability (P) or return period.
x is mean of floods on record

∆x is departure of variate from the mean.

∆x depends on dispersion characteristics, recurrence interval (T) and other statistical
parameters. It can be expressed as

∆x = S K . . .(1)

where S is standard deviation of the sample and K is frequency factor Thus, equation
(1) above can be expressed as

x = x + KS

Recurrence interval

n number of years on record;

m is the rank of observed occurrences when arranged in descending order.
 DATA SOURCE

The flood frequency analysis is a multivariate statistical method for predicting the frequency of
flooding. In this present study, 22 years annual peak discharge (2001 to 2022) data was collected
from Somasila Reservoir. The collected discharge data was tabulated together in a table for
analyzing the flood frequency.

DETAILS OF SOMASILA RESERVOIR :

River/Tributary : Pennar River.

Nearest City/ Town (including Kms.) : Nellore 90 Kms.
Name of the upper stream projects : Mylavaram Dam, Cheyyeru
Project and Lower Sagileru.Project .
Catchments area : 48,645 Sq.km.
Maximum Flood discharge (observed) : 6,26,274 Cusecs, 2001year.
Designed Discharge at F.R.L : 6,95,000 Cusecs.
Designed Discharge at M.W.L : 7,90,000 Cusecs.
Gross Capacity at FRL in TMC : 77.988 TMC.
Water spread area at FRL (Sq.Km.) : 212.285 Sq.km.
Water allocation : 60.892 TMC.
Average Monsoon rainfall : 1031.76 mm.
FRL/MWL : +100.58M/+101.80M.
Gross storage : 77.988 TMC.
Dead Storage : 7.567 TMC.
Live storage between MDDL&FRL : 70.421 TMC.
 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS BY USING
GUMBEL DISTRIBUITION

Gumbel’s Methods : Gumbel’s distribution is a probabilistic theory of statistics. It is used as a

model of maximum number distribution among the various samples. It is useful to predict the future
natural disaster like flood, earthquake, drought etc.The Gumbel’s distribution method of frequency
analysis needs minimum ten years annual maximum historical data to assume the probabilistic
future prediction. It is also known as the generalized extreme value distribution method. In this
study, the Gumbel frequency distribution method was applied to predict the flood
frequency of lower Penna River basin.

Steps used in Frequency Analysis:

Various steps used in frequency analysis by the Gumbel method are as follows:

(i) List and arrange annual floods (x) in descending order of magnitude.

(ii) Assign rank ‘m’, m = 1 for highest value and so on.

(iii) Calculate return period (T) and/or probability of exceedence (P) by equations n + 1/m and m/n
+1 respectively. These values together with respective flood magnitude give plotting positions.

(iv) Using tabular form calculate x2and ∑x and Ex2.

(v) Now calculate mean x; squared mean x2; mean of squares x2 and standard deviation S.

(vi) From the Table of frequency factors for Gumbel method read if values for desired return periods
and the available sample size.

(vii) Using relation x = x + KS calculate flood values for various return periods.

(viii) Using the extreme value probability paper plot the x values against respective return periods or
P values and join the points to obtain the required frequency curve.
 PEAK DISCHARGE DATA OF SOMASILA RESERVOIR
OVERALL PAST 22 YEARS:-

Frequency Factor Table For Gumbels Method :-

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS BY GUMBELLS METHOD :-

ANALYSIS OF GUMBELS DISTRIBUTION:-

GUMBELS TABLE