MOREAU Laura Université d’Orléans

M1 LEA LACI 2022-2023

Civilisation des pays anglophones

BREXIT AND DIVISION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

It was in the aftermath of the Second World War and following the creation of the European
Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), that West Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, and
the Netherlands signed the founding treaties in Rome on the 25th of March 1957, of what was to
become the European Union, then created thanks to the Maastricht treaty in 1992. The United
Kingdom joined this unique organization in 1973 and other members followed from 1981 to 2013
to integrate all 27 members that make up the European Union as we know it today. The United
Kingdom and European Union have officially severed their ties after the announcement of the
Brexit referendum and its outcome. With almost 52% of British citizens in favour of leaving the
United Kingdom and 48% in favour of staying in the European Union, the date of the 23rd of June
2016, shocked the nation, Europe and beyond. The impact of this problem has been somewhat
muted by Covid's introduction and rise to prominence since 2019, but disagreements over it remain
sharp and topical. The United Kingdom formally left the European Union after 47 years on the 1st
of February 2020, following numerous delays and lengthy political discussions. As Boris Johnson,
then Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, said in Parliament, "Brexit is not an end
but a beginning", indeed the decision to leave the European Union was the beginning of a long and
bumpy road.
As a result, to what extent has Brexit divided the United Kingdom and continues to do so?
It appears at first glance that political divisions were prominent in the British government (I) and
that the events that took place following Brexit led to a no longer “United” Kingdom (II).

I. The British government undermined by political divisions

A. The obvious division between political parties

A political scientist at the London School of Economics, Patrick Dunleavy said: “Brexit
divide cuts across party lines […] and this has produced an exceptionally dysfunctional political
system”1. Indeed, debates continues to rage across the British political landscape which is a two-

1
Dunleavy Patrick and Sean Kippin. "The political parties and party system", The UK’s Changing Democracy, 2018.

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party system composed of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party which have been the two
leading parties since the 1920s. They were at war with each other and continues to be obsessed
with the subject of Brexit. As a result, this first division between them led to the fact that more than
affiliation with any political party, “Leave” and “Remain” are chosen as political identities by
British citizens. When asked how they identify politically, 35% of the electorate say as a “Leave
voter” and a further 40% as a “Remain voter”2. In comparison, only 16% and 15% describe their
political identity as a “Conservative voter” or as a “Labour voter” respectively3. This undoubtedly
shows that the political parties themselves are divided and that it is mainly political and social
opinions that are opposed to Brexit. This has been further accentuated by the British media, which
plays an extremely important role in political and social life whether in print, on radio, television
or even social media. Brexit was and still is an important subject for every type of media and is
still a source of division between political parties and ideologies between Remainers and Leavers
as there are lots of tabloids or personalities supporting one side or the other.
Also, the referendum has highlighted divisions in the United Kingdom that go far beyond
the European question. According to the UK parliament website, in the year ending June 2022, 1.1
million people migrated into the United Kingdom and 560,000 people emigrated from it, leaving
net migration of 504,000 people4. During the campaign for Brexit, the issue of immigration was a
lot discussed and according to polls, more than half of those surveyed thought that immigration
would fall if the United Kingdom left the European Union. Almost 70% of those people voted to
leave, which is a very large number of citizens, as if this issue had tipped the balance towards
Brexit5. As a result, a new immigration system post-Brexit was created in 2021, ending free
movement of people between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Immigration plays a
key role in the EU referendum, but it was also central to define the kind of Brexit the British
government hoped to achieve which was a virulent debate to deal with within political parties.

B. The chaotic British U-turn

According to Professor Sir John Curtice, Chairman of the British Polling Council: “Brexit
is now probably at its lowest popularity level since June 2016”. Indeed, a reversal of the trend after

2
Hobolt Sara,Leeper Thomas and Tilley James, “Emerging Brexit identities”, The UK in a changing Europe, 2018
3
Professor Paula Surridge. “Leave vs Remain: is Brexit still the main divide in British Politics?”, The UK in a changing Europe,
2021.
4
Portes Jonathan. “How is the post-Brexit immigration system affecting the UK economy?”, Economics observatory, 2022
5
Curtice John. “Brexit and public opinion: Immigration”, The UK in a changing Europe, 2018

2
the 2016 referendum has occurred, and it has gotten faster over the last several years, according to
several polls. Given the consequences and divisions of Brexit for their nation, 54% of British
people would choose to vote to remain in the European Union in a second referendum, compared
to only 46% who would choose to vote to leave6. The main reason for this reversal is that nearly
half of those who did not cast a ballot in 2016 (48%) said they would now vote to stay in the EU.
This British U-turn is also observed in higher education where 90% of its staff would vote
“Remain” in 2016 and a similar proportion of economists including professors and winners of
economics Nobel prize said that Brexit would damage the British economy7.
The gap between those in favour of Brexit and who believe it will have a positive impact
on the economy and those who regret leaving the European Union, insisting on its negative
consequences, continues and has been further accentuated by the cost-of-living crisis. Indeed,
according to researchers at the London School of Economics, the UK’s departure from the
European Union has resulted in a 6% increase in food prices in just two years, costing British
households an additional sum of money that is roughly six billion pounds (around 7 billion of
euros), proving that Brexit is one of the causes of the country's important inflation8. The fact that
the ruling Conservatives are experiencing ongoing internal division and appointed their third and
last prime minister of 2022 on October 25th of the same year, does also not bode well for the future.
As a result, Leavers are starting to regret their decision and are paying more attention to the
consequences on their country. According to the NatCen survey, 57% of voters think that the UK
economy will suffer if the two sides cannot come to a compromise. It is also one of the alternatives
suggested by British media to help the United Kingdom out of its current economic and social
crises. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, firmly rejected it, declaring that the United Kingdom
"will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws" under his
leadership9.

II. A kingdom no longer united

A. A national unity put to the test

6
NatCen’s Online probabiliy panel. “Brexit continues to divide Britain”, ScotCen’s Social Research, 2020
7
Morgan John. “EU Referendum: nine out of 10 university staff back Remain”, Times Higher Education, 2016
8
London School of Economics and Political science, “By the end of 2021, Brexit had already cost UK households a total of £5.8
billion in higher food bills”, 2022.
9
Reuters Institute, “PM Sunak says Britain will not pursue trade ties that rely on EU alignment”, 2022

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 Every region of the United Kingdom wants to make sure that nothing is lost. The possibility
of exiting the union has revived the dreams of independent Europeanists in Scotland. Wales would
still like to maintain access to the single European market, which is essential for its economy,
despite the pro-Brexit vote having won. The government in London is trying to convince people
that the gains from the free trade deals with the Commonwealth will more than make up for the
losses associated with the EU divorce. Discussions in Northern Ireland, a region haunted by the
specter of civil conflict, are being sparked by concerns about a return to a physical border with the
Republic of Ireland. Divisions are therefore rife and the countries that make up the United Kingdom
are sowing doubts as to the future that awaits them.
In Wales, even though most of Welsh people had voted in favour of "Leave", the coalition
of Labour and Nationalists nevertheless fears the effects of a "hard Brexit" on its economy. These
question the decision to leave the EU and a survey conducted by ITV Wales/Cardiff University
YouGov found that 53% of Welsh voters would vote “Remain” compared to 47% who would vote
“Leave”, in a second referendum10. This reflects trends across the United Kingdom, with
“Remain” in Scotland and Northern Ireland leading by a wide margin. Indeed, in Scotland, the
vote in favour of remaining in the EU was the majority with 62%11. Scotland is therefore paying
for the dashed hopes of Brexit. Indeed, the support that the Scots had placed towards London is no
longer the same, mainly because of fishing problems, particularly in Peterhead, in the far north of
Scotland, where the most important fishing port in the United Kingdom is located. These nations
have therefore been detached from the European Union against their will and the aftermath of
Brexit has led to a further concentration of power in the capital of England, which is causing the
other members of the UK to reconsider independence. While the subject had already been discussed
during the 2014 referendum in Scotland, the same situation is now taking place in Northern Ireland,
where most independents want to hold a new referendum.

B. The particular situation of Northern Ireland

Due to a 30-year civil war that has characterized Northern Ireland's recent history, the
situation there in relation to Brexit is extremely complex. Indeed, the Northern Irish population
seems to be divided along community lines.

10
Jones Moya.“Wales and the Brexit Vote”, OpenEdition Journals, 2017
11
Avery Graham. “Scotland and the European Union”, European Policy Center, 2016

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 British Prime Minister Theresa May mentioned in a speech she gave on the 25th of July
2016 in Belfast, the possibility of a physical border between the two nations, which has been almost
undetectable since 1998. She later affirmed that “No one wants the borders of the past to return”
but also claimed that Brexit made free movement between the two nations "untenable" and that a
solution must be found. In the light of this, the Good Friday Agreement from 1998, is threatened
because of Brexit. Returning to a physical border might have impeded trade between the two
sections of the island, which totals €7.4 billion annually, as well as the mobility of the 30,000
people who cross the island every day12, and it is not conceivable.
On the other hand, following the referendum results on the 23rd of June 2016, a hypothetical
situation has come up again in the public debate: what if Northern Ireland and the Republic of
Ireland took advantage of the results to reunify? This enthusiasm for reunification is far from being
unanimous. According to Christophe Gillissen, a researcher in Irish civilization at the University
of Caen: “It is not at all certain today that a majority would approve it. Among the voters who
voted against Brexit, some would vote against the reunification of Ireland, especially since in a
context of great uncertainty, the status quo may seem reassuring," he explains in France 2413.
However, as with Scotland, the British government must provide proof that most of the Northern
Irish citizens support holding the referendum before deciding whether to do so and there is no
evidence to support this at the moment.
Therefore, while no longer being a member of the European Union, Northern Ireland enjoys
for now, a special status in which it abides by the laws of the single market and the customs union
thanks to a trade border in the Irish Sea. This solution leads the British government's inconsistent
enforcement of the laws that are unique to Northern Ireland and is somewhat related to the local
political climate and is a major source of tension between Europeans and British citizens. The
debate is still accurate and must be resolved by getting a strong agreement.

To conclude, although Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister, successfully campaigned
on a promise to “get Brexit done” in 201914, three years on, the country is still in a hostile climate
with itself and the EU over the post-Brexit relationship. Brexit has impacted and divided the

12
Sabanoglu Tugba. “Trade across the Irish border - Statistics & Facts”, Statista, 2021.
13
Houeix Romain. « Entre frontière et divisions politiques, comment le Brexit ravive les tensions du passé en Irlande du Nord »,
France 24, 2017.
14
Perrigo Billy. “Get Brexit done, the 3 words that helped Boris Johnson win Britain’s 2019 election”, Time, 2019.

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country on many issues such as the economy and trade between European and non-European
countries, the rights of British and European citizens, immigration and labour shortages, and
conflicts between nations, particularly in Northern Ireland15. A political research director Chris
Hopkins is saying: “one thing that the public can agree on, though, is that Brexit has caused a
more divided country”16. This quote illustrates well the current situation even though solutions are
being sought at the national level. Unfortunately, the divisions go even further, and the Europeans
are also divided on the subject, further complicating relationships between the European Union and
the United Kingdom.

15
Sandford Alasdair. “Post-Brexit guide: What’s been the impact- and how did it happen?”, Euronews, 2022.
16
Hopkins Chris. “Pollwatch: Britain five years on from Brexit”, Savanta, 2021.