FORECAST:

• A statement about the future value of a variable of interest such as demand.

• Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an organization

– Accounting, finance
– Human resources
– Marketing
– MIS
– Operations
– Product / service design

Uses of Forecasts

Accounting Cost/Profit Estimating

Finance Cash flow and funding
Human Resources Hiring/Recruiting/Training
Marketing Pricing, Promotion, Strategy
MIS IT systems, services
Operations Schedules,Workloads
Product/Service Design New Products and Services
Timely
Elements of a Good Forecast

Reliable Accurate

l s e
f uForecasts u
n•g JudgmentalWritten to
Types of

n i - uses subjective inputs y

a s
a future will be like the past
e • Time series - uses historical data assumingEthe
M • Associative models - uses explanatory variables to predict the future

• Quantitative forecasting-Applying a set of mathematical rules to a series of hard data to predict

outcomes (e.g., units to be produced).
 • Qualitative forecasting-Using expert judgments and opinions to predict less than precise
outcomes (e.g., direction of the economy).

Making forecasting more effective

1. Use simple forecasting methods.

2. Compare each forecast with its corresponding “no change” forecast.

3. Don’t rely on a single forecasting method.

4. Don’t assume that the turning points in a trend can be accurately identified.

5. Shorten the time period covered by a forecast.

6. Remember that forecasting is a developed managerial skill that supports decision making

Determining Net HR Requirements

1) Determine HR Demand: We need to calculate the HR demand in terms of numbers and the required
competencies.

• How? First, each sub-unit submits its net personnel requirement to the corporate forecasting
unit to meet the agreed-on objectives ( e.g., market share, production levels, size or expansion,
etc.).

• This includes the individuals needed to maintain and replace the current personnel need
(retirement, death, termination, disability, long-term leave or training etc.) and the
replacements for promotions or transfers out of the department.

• These are combined and used as the starting point for HR demand forecasts.

• Next, planned future changes in organizational design or restructuring with their associated
increase or decrease in staffing levels are incorporated (added or subtracted) to revise the net
requirement.

• The forecasters have to replace non-productive paid time (vacation and sick days) by increasing
full-time or part-time workers or overtime.

• This gives the Net HR Demand, broken down into forecasting time horizons. This contains:

• 1) the number of employees required for each sub-unit and the total.

• 2) the employees’ skills, competencies or specifications for each position.

• Then the forecasters make cost estimate or HR budget.

 Determine How to Supply Net HR Requirements

• HR Demand = external supply + internal supply

• External Supply = HR demand - internal supply

• External Supply = replacement + change supply components

• Replacement Supply = hiring to replace all normal losses

• Change Supply = hiring to increase or decrease the overall staffing level

• First, To maintain operation at current level, organization needs to replace those who leave due
to firing, transfers, retirements, promotions, leave and so on by hiring new employees.

• Secondly, if increase or decrease of staffing levels occurs at sub-units, organization has to

consider the changes in the overall size of the workforce.

Equation and Example

External supply = current workforce size x (replacement % per year + change % per year)

Example-1: An organization with 1000 employees, 11% replacement/loss rate and 7% desired future
growth rate.

External supply for the organization = 1000 (.11 + .07)

= 180 (net HR deficiency)

Example-2: An organization with 450 employees, 8% replacement/loss rate and 9.5% reduction rate.

External supply for the organization = 450 (.08 -.095)

= -7 (net HR surplus)

Institute HR Programs
 External Selection

Issues needed for selection:

1.Logic of prediction: When past situations act as a sample and gives possible outcomes (Attraction,
performance, satisfaction, retention and attendance) to HR and when understanding new situation is easy
it calls Logic of predication.

Predictor can take various forms as:

 Speed vs. power: How many vs. what level

 Paper/pencil vs. performance: Test in writing or in behavior.

 Objective vs. essay: Much like multiple choices vs. essay course exam.

 Oral vs. written vs. computer: How data are obtained.

2. We have to develop KSAO that is required for the job and have to decide the required Method/Methods
for assessment.

3. For resumes and cover letters information provided is controlled by the applicants. So it must be
verified. Remember it can take validity and reliability affect, cost affect and adverse effect. Falsification
can be a big problem.

4. Look areas for special interest

5. Observe educational requirements with these following points:

 Level of Education.

 GPA

 Quality of school

 Major field of study

 Extra curriculum activities.

6. Emphasis more on achievement/accomplishment rather than activities.

7. Avoid Letter of Recommendation.

8. Following information’s can take a vital part:

 Criminal History

 Credit Information.

 Educational History.

 Employment verification.

 Driver License histories.

  Workers compensation claims.

9. In Bangladesh, Roughly very few companies check references.

10. Cost vs. Benefit approach must be calculated.

Guidelines for enhance usefulness:

 Ask questions assessing most basic KSAOs.

 Stick to basic, fundamental questions suitable for making rough cuts rather than subjective
questions.

 Keep interviews brief.

 Sometimes asking same questions to all applicants can create advantages.

 We can use video or computer or telephone based interviews for cost saving.

Big five factors of personality which determines performance:

 Conscientiousness: Persistent, planer can be counted on.

 Emotional stability: Hard to annoy, Hard to hurt feeling.

 Extraversion: Likes meeting new people, Takes charge.

 Openness to Experience: Likes new ideas, tries new things.

 Agreeableness: Forgive easily, sees good side of people.

You can significantly increase the effectiveness of your interviews by using behavioral and
competency based techniques. Research suggests that it increases the predicative validity of your
interview to 50-55%, up from 10% when you rely on a CV and a general interview.

For positions that are likely to attract interstate or overseas candidates it may be necessary to conduct
initial discussions via telephone or video. Telephone and video interviews are normally used to make
a preliminary assessment of a candidate. However, you should also meet the candidate face-to-face
before making final recommendations.

Telephone interviews may also be of benefit where there are a large number of suitable
candidates on a shortlist. A telephone call asking a few questions may assist in the shortlisting
decision.
 Work Simulation Exercises

The leaderless group discussion:

This is a simple technique where a group of participants are asked to carry on a discussion about
some topic for a specific period of time e.g. performance issues, or internal/external alliances or
relationships. No one is appointed leader and assessors do not participate in the discussion, but remain
free to observe and rate the performance of each participant. Skills and attributes such as leadership,
coaching, customer service orientation, teamwork, building relationships, etc. can be evaluated.

The in-tray test:

This is an individual test designed to simulate important or regular tasks associated with the
position. Different types of in-tray tests may be designed to correspond to the various requirements of
the position, e.g. writing a memo, researching information or analysing data. At the conclusion of
the exercise the candidate will have produced notes, memos, letters, etc., which constitute the
record of his or her behaviour in completing the task. In-tray exercises permit direct observation of
individual behaviour within the context of a job-relevant problem situation.

Planning exercises:

These test the candidate's ability to prioritise, plan activities, schedule and allocate resources, and
adapt to last minute changes. This allows assessors to evaluate a candidate's skills and attributes in
planning and judgement. Exercises might involve providing the candidate with some information about a
typical project and asking them to draft a project plan or schedule, determine a budget or allocate
resources.

Analysis exercises:

These evaluate a candidate's aptitude in analysis and judgement. Candidates are provided with
quantitative and qualitative data about a fictitious organisation and asked to draw conclusions,
make recommendations, assess the organisation's situation or improve matters such as
productivity, customer relations, organisational structure and morale. These type of exercises are
most commonly used for senior management positions.

Lectures/Presentations:

These assess a candidate's communication skills and perhaps their expertise on a particular
subject. A typical task might involve a candidate preparing and presenting to a selection committee,
peers and/or postgraduate students. For example, for an academic position a lecture or presentation
of research or teaching would be appropriate.

Computer exercises:

These demonstrate a candidate's computer skills using particular programs. Tasks might involve
creating spreadsheets, data sorts, letters or diagrams, etc.
 Tips on using peer assessment

It is a good idea to involve a range of people with different relationships to the candidate, for example
someone who works with them in a team capacity, someone who has a supervisory relationship to them
and someone who reports to them. Keep in mind that peers may assess their colleagues based on
personal bias.

Informal Meetings on selection:

Informal meetings can be used as a way of observing a candidate's behavior in a less formal
environment, such as lunches or morning tea with staff or key stakeholders.

Tips on using informal meetings: Informal meetings are probably best used as part of a two-phase
selection process, after you have narrowed the field down to the last few candidates.

Shortlisting Techniques:

After the committee has made a shortlist, you should contacts the shortlisted candidates to arrange
their interviews and explain the process they will go through. When scheduling interviews, allow
approximately one hour for the interview itself, and at least 15 minutes break in between each
interview. This break allows for any overruns and provides the selection committee with an opportunity to
discuss the interview just conducted and prepare for the next candidate. Remember to distribute an
interview timetable to selection committee members before you conduct the interviews.

Tips for talking to referees

* To target reference checking, ask candidates to nominate referees in specific categories e.g.
supervisor, client, peer

* Target questions wherever possible and make them similar to those asked in the interview

* If the selection committee considers the candidate's nominated referees to be unsuitable, ask the
candidate to nominate further referees, or request permission to approach specific referees

* Listen for what the referee does not say and how they make comments. If a referee hesitates or does
not provide feedback on past work performance, it may indicate the candidate's areas of
weakness. In this case, you might want to ask if the referee would re-employ the candidate and if
so in what capacity

* Remember that personality differences may cause a referee or manager to comment less or
more enthusiastically about some candidates

* Remember to probe and try to use open question techniques that make it hard for the referee to
simply answer yes or no. This will provide you with more detailed information.
Steps to appoint the candidate

The following tasks must be completed by the selection Committee Convener:

1. Forward the completed Appointment Recommendation and Selection Committee Report form to the
appropriate authority to get formal approval to appoint.

2. Attach the Shortlisting Report Form and the Appointment Recommendation and Selection Committee
Report Form to the recruitment file and forward it to the Human Resources Unit (HRU) for verification.

3. Offer the position to the candidate and negotiate salary arrangements.

4. Advise unsuccessful interviewed candidates verbally.

5. Make workplace arrangements to accommodate and welcome the new staff member.

Employment contract

HR Unit prepares and sends the employment contract. The contract clearly spells out the terms and
conditions of the position, and any probation period applicable. HRU uses the information
contained in the recruitment file to complete the contract.

Telling about failure:

All unsuccessful applicants are notified by email about their failure. However, it is also good
practice for the selection committee convener to verbally advise the other interviewed candidates
that they have not been successful. The feedback you give should include advice about why the
candidate was not recommended for appointment and discussion of their strengths and areas for
development.