Montreaux Chocolate Company USA: Are Americans Ready for Healthy Dark Chocolate?

Student Spreadsheet

Copyright © 2013 Harvard Business School Publishing

Exhibit 1 - Montreaux Chocolate USA Volume Projections

($000's) 2013 2014 2015

Total U.S. Market Size $18,378 $18,745 $19,120
Montreaux Chocolate USA $51.0 $76.0 $115.0
Montreaux U.S. Market Share 0.28% 0.41% 0.60%
Exhibit 4 - Attribute Ratings for the 5 oz. Stand-up Pouch with Healthy Messaging Concept

How much would you agree with the

Product Attribute
statements made about this product? (%
Agree or Strongly Agree)
Would be better for me than other chocolates 87
Would be high quality 85
Would taste great 84
Would come in varieties I like 78
Would be a good way in indulge myself 74
Would be good for any time of the day 61
Would taste better than other dark chocolates 54
Would be good for everyday use 42
Would be an all-natural snack option 38
Would be a good value 33
Exhibit 5 - Montreaux Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1

Trial Purchase Rate Repeat Rate by Product

Definitely would buy 23% Mediocre Product 28%
Probably would buy 40% Average Product 33%
U.S. Households (MM) 120 Excellent Product 38%
Penetration* 92% Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) 4
Marketing Plan Adjustments
Consumer Awareness ACV
Low Support 14% Low 60%
Medium Support 17% Medium 65%
High Support 20% High 79%
Pricing $4.49 Sell at 65% MSRP 65%
*Assumed penetration of chocolate users.
NOTE: Acceptable hurdle rate is $30MM.
All numbers are fictictious and used for illustrative purposes.
Student Template
Source
Definitely would buy 23% Exhibit 5
% of "Definites" who actually buy 80%
"Definite" Purchases 18%

Probably would buy 40% Exhibit 5

% of "Probables" who actually buy 30%
"Probable" Purchases 12%

Trial Rate ("Definite" + "Probable") 30%

Households (MM) 120.0 Exhibit 5

Penetration, % of households 92% Exhibit 5
Awareness 14% Exhibit 5
ACV 60% Exhibit 5

Total Trial Households (MM) 2.82

% of households repurchasing 28% Exhibit 5

Repeat purchase occasions 4 Exhibit 5
Total Repeat Purchases (MM) 3.16

Total Purchases (Trial + Repeat) (MM) 6.0

Retail selling price $4.50 Exhibit 5

Retail sales value ($MM) $27.0M
Montreaux sells at X% of MSRP 65% Case text
Sales Volume ($MM) $17.6M
 Medicore Product Average Product
Medium Medium
Low High Low
Awarenes Awarenes
Awarenes Awarenes Awarenes
Particulars s& s&
s & Low s & High s & Low
Medium Medium
ACV ACV ACV
ACV ACV
Definitely would buy 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
% of "Definites" who actually buy 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
"Definite" Purchases 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%

Probably would buy 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

% of "Probables" who actually buy 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
"Probable" Purchases 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

Trial Rate ("Definite" + "Probable") 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

Households (MM) 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0

Penetration, % of households 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%
Awareness 14% 17% 20% 14% 17%
ACV 60% 65% 79% 60% 65%

Total Trial Households (MM) 2.82 3.71 5.30 2.82 3.71

% of households repurchasing 28% 28% 28% 33% 33%

Repeat purchase occasions 4 4 4 4 4
Total Repeat Purchases (MM) 3.16 4.15 5.94 3.72 4.90

Total Purchases (Trial + Repeat) (MM) 6.0 7.9 11.2 6.5 8.6

Retail selling price $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50

Retail sales value ($MM) $26.9M $35.4M $50.6M $29.4M $38.7M
Montreaux sells at X% of MSRP 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%
Sales Volume ($MM) $17.5M $23.0M $32.9M $19.1M $25.2M
erage Product Excellent Product
Medium
High Low High
Awarenes
Awarenes Awarenes Awarenes
s&
s & High s & Low s & High
Medium
ACV ACV ACV
ACV
23% 23% 23% 23%
80% 80% 80% 80%
18% 18% 18% 18%

40% 40% 40% 40%

30% 30% 30% 30%
12% 12% 12% 12%

30% 30% 30% 30%

120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0

92% 92% 92% 92%
20% 14% 17% 20%
79% 60% 65% 79%

5.30 2.82 3.71 5.30

33% 38% 38% 38%

4 4 4 4
7.00 4.29 5.64 8.06

12.3 7.1 9.3 13.4

$4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50

$55.4M $32.0M $42.1M $60.1M
65% 65% 65% 65%
$36.0M $20.8M $27.3M $39.1M