Professional Documents
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BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
Vol. 2, No. 1, 2013:6-16
THE EFFECT OF SOEKARNO‐HATTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT – JAKARTA
RAILWAY TRAIN PROJECT TO PT KERETA API INDONESIA FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE
Adhi Nugraha and Subiakto Soekarno
School of Business and Management
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
adhi.nugraha@sbm‐itb.ac.id
Abstract— Soekarno‐Hatta is the largest and busiest airport in Indonesia. So far, the transportation route in and
out of the airport is only via the highway road (toll or non‐toll) that will pass ring road Jakarta. Currently, the
growth of vehicles in Jakarta is very surprising to cause severe traffic jam. The traffic jam that often occured is
also affected either directly or indirectly to the traffic conditions and from the Soekarno‐Hatta Airport.
Indonesia Government through Presidential Decree number 83 of 2011 assigned PT Indonesia Railway to build
railway transportation infrastructure through a circular route Jakarta to Soekarno Hatta. The purpose is to
develop alternative transportation to help reduce transport problems in the future. For PT KAI itself, as the
government‐owned company that has a public service obligation (PSO), the project must be done, but there will
be a question of whether this project will give positive or negative impact for the company in the future,
especially in terms of financial performance. Therefore, to analyze the velua added of this project, the future
financial statements between if PT KAI do the project and if they don’t do the project must be compared. As a
first step analyzed the financial condition of PT KAI current through the analysis of time series, cross section, a
ranking based on two methodologies (BUMN & Moody's), and the current capital structure. Furthermore, the
feasibility and demand analysis of the project will be presented as information. To determine how much value
the project given, the projected consolidated financial statements and financial statement projections of the
project will be conducted. Next step will compare and analyze the results of these projections, which are the
consolidated financial statements without a project with projected financial statements consolidation plus
project. From the results of the comparison will be observed whether the project also increased ratings of PT
KAI. This research provides business solutions to PT KAI to improve financial performance and corporate value
by increasing the financial indicators and investment rating. In the end, the project can be roled as a business
solution in the future
Keywords: Railway Train, Capital Structure, Project Investment, Financial Performance
1. Introduction
PT Kereta Api Indonesia (PT KAI) or Indonesian Railways is the only one commercial railway train
operator in Indonesia. PT KAI is one of Indonesia State‐Owned Enterprise (Badan Usaha Milik
Negara) which the main core business in transportation industry. It served both passenger and
freight trasport. PT KAI has a role as Public Service Obligation company (PSO) that has liability to
serve the Indonesian people according to government order.
Indonesian government as Peraturan Presiden no 83 tahun 2011 had give an obligation to PT KAI to
build infrastructure and rolling stock that will serve the route from Jabodetabek to Seokarno‐ Hatta
International Airport in Tangerang, Banten. This action came from the condition of traffic in Jakarta
city that often have traffic jam. The growth of personal vehicle number that not align with road
growth leads to the crowded traffic. This condition also affects the traffic condition to Soekarno‐
Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, which is the only transportation to go there is by road. By
the obligation of the company, PT KAI must perform the project as order of the government. But the
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question emerge as if the project bring positive impact or not to the company in the future,
especially for the financial performance
2. Business Issue Exploration
This part discusses the approach to explore the business issue. There are many factors that important
to the financial performance assessment, that will be explained in following chapter
A. Conceptual Framework
To analyzed the business issue, a proper conceptual framework need to build. This conceptual
framework will role as guidance from current financial performance, until the comparation with the
future financial performance. The conceptual framework describe as follow diagram
Figure 1. Conceptual Frameworks
The first step is analyzing the current financial performance of PT KAI. The analysis will using financial
ratio analysis like time series and cross section, and rating approach like BUMN performance
assessment and Moodys rating methodology. The next step is to analyze whether the project is
feasible to perform, and demand analysis to get information about the market. The last step is to
know whether the project give value added to the financial performance of the firm by compare two
projected financial statements: the one without project, and the one with project performed
B. Business Situation
For business industry analysis, this research using Porter Five Forces as the tools. The analysis is:
1. New entrance
• High market demand
• Monopoly by PT KAI
• High capital and require huge investment
• Regulation permit private company
• High operating cost
Conclusion: Moderate
2. Threat of Substitute
• Increasing market demand of low cost carrier
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• Highway construction
• Moderate switching cost
Conclusion: Moderate
3. Industry Rivalry
• Monopoly by PT KAI
Conclusion: Low
4. Power of Buyer
• Not price sensitive
• Few options of good and cheap transportation moda
• Switching cost are relatively high for some economic class
Conclusion: Low
5. Power of Supplier
• Many options for rolling stock manufacturer
• Few options for infrastructure (rail)
• Few options of oil supplier
Conclusion: Moderate
The conclusion of this analysis is the current business situation of railway train is still low in
competition, yet monopoly by PT KAI. But, eventhough the industry are attractive, some
consideration about huge investment and competition with local player (PT KAI)
C. Current Financial Performance Assessment
For analyze the current financial performance of PT KAI, there are several tools used. The first one is
time series analysis. This tools presented the financial performance of company from year‐to‐year. For
PT KAI, the analysis will conducted from 2007‐2011
Table 1. PT KAI Time Series Analysis
The second tool is cross section. This analysis involves the comparison between several different firms
financial ratios at present time. For the comparation with PT KAI, this research using Indian Railways
and Korean Railroad, since PT KAI didn’t have similar competitor in Indonesia. The cross section
analysis calculated into industry average financial ratios, that compared again with PT KAI financial
ratios in the table below
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Table 2 – Financial Ratio Combined Analysis
The third tool is to rate the current financial performance using Indonesian State‐Owned Enterprise
Framework. The calculation based on Keputusan Menteri BUMN no 100 tahun 2001. The calculation
result is in the table below (only financial aspect analyzed)
Table 3 . BUMN Standard Financial Aspect Assessment
The other rating methodology is Moodys. The international rating institution had release a global
passenger railway rating methodology to explain the method they used to rate Railway Company in
the world. Based on this methodology, PT KAI has rating Bb2 with scoring in table below.
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Table 4 .Moodys Rating Scoring Assessment
The other approach to assess the current financial performance is analyzing the capital structure. The
current capital structure of PT KAI calculated as assumptions and the results below
Table 5 .Current WACC calculation
Rp
Debt
880.623.076.766
Rp
Equity
3.904.428.172.844
Total Rp
Capital 4.785.051.249.610
Cost of
9%
Debt
Cost of
19.52%
Equity
Tax Rate 25%
WACC 16.51%%
By the current capital structure, next assessment is to determine the optimal capital structure of the
firm. This calculation using assumption that value of the firm is maximizing as the cost of capital is
minimizing. For the calculation of cost of debt and cost of capital, using an assumption that the cost of
debt and equity will increase as the debt to equity ratio increase to compensate the higher risk. The
cost of debt incement using a synthetic bond rating calculation, and the cost of equity increment using
unlevered beta that incremenr as the debt‐to‐equity ratio increase. The curve of the optimal capital
structure is in following figure, which the composition os 38% debt and 62% equity bring maximum
value to the firm for 1,339,978,895,966
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Figure 2. Optimal Capital Structure Curve
D. Soekarno ‐Hatta Airport – Jakarta Project
The Soekarno‐Hatta – Jakarta Railway route will be build as the need of alternative transportation
from/to Soekarno Hatta Airport. The traffic condition of Jakarta that often jammed affected directly to
the traffic road of the airport. Furthermore, the soekarno‐hatta airplane passenger estimated will
become 141 million people in 2030
Table 6. Seokarno‐Hatta Passenger Projection
E. Business Issue Exploration Conclusion
By the analysis above, there are several preliminary conclusion to the business issue:
• Several financial indicator is below the optimum score:
Return on Equity
Return on Investment
Total Asset Turnover
Employee to passenger ratio
Revenue
• Current capital structure of the PT KAI is not optimal, thus not given a maximum value to the
firm
• The project must be analyzed whether it will bring value added to the financial performance
to the company in the future or not
3. Business Solution
The business solution will explain three main approach, the first is to determine improvement target
for current financial performance, the second is analyze the feasibility of the project, and the third is
to analyze the value added of project to future financial performance.
F. Current Financial Performance Improvement Target
For the current financial analysis based on ratio analysis or the rating methodologies, there are several
indicator that have to be improve.
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Table 7. Current Financial Improvement Target
Objective Indicator Target Source
Return on Indonesian
6.24% > 15%
Equity Gov.
Return on Indonesian
9.91% > 18%
Investment Gov.
Total Asset Indonesian
111.9 > 120
Turnover Gov.
> US$
Size and US$ 667
3 Moodys
Revenue million
billion
(PT+PK)/Total
0.00796 >0.5 Moodys
Employees
The other improvement target is to increase the debt proportion so tht the value of the firm will
increase
Table 8 – Proposed Optimal Capital Structure
Proportion Current 2011 Proposed
Debt 18.40% 38%
Equity 81.60% 62%
G. Project Analysis
Before execute the project, usually there is one analysis called feasibility study. From this study, the
company who wants to make an investment will know whether the investment will bring value or
profit in the future or not. To calculate the project of Soekarno‐Hatta, used the discounted cash flow
method with assumptions and results as follow
Table 9 . Project Feasibility Result
Variable Value
Cost of Debt 9%
Cost of Equity 19.52%
Debt to Equity 28.63%
Discount Rate 16.51%
(WACC)
Observation year 30 years
Net Present Value 1,077,787
Internal Rate of 20,92%
Return
Pay Back Period 6.18 years
From the analysis, we can conclude that the project is feasible.
H. Future Financial Performance Analysis
The next question is whether the project will give positive impact to the financial performance of the
firm in the future, furthermore, can improve the financial condition or rating. To analyze this, the
current financial statements of PT KAI must be projected. Also the financial statements of the
Soekarno‐Hatta project. The current financial statements projection is the projected financial
statements without project (non project). And the second projected financial statements is the
current financial statements projection plus project financial statements projection. This financial
statements is the financial statements with project (project). The next step is compare the financial
ratios of this two projected financial statements. The results is as follows.
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Table 10 . Financial Ratio Comparation
I. Project as Financial Performance Improvement
From the future financal performance analysis, the ratio of the with‐project financial performance give
better score in several indicators, especially for profitability. But to know the value added to the
rating, BUMN standard would be used again to rate the future financial performance. The
comparation is in following table.
Table 11. BUMN Rating Comparation
And from this analysis, the with‐project financial statement is excel much better from without‐project
financial statements. This can be read in long‐term project execution, the project will raise the rating
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of the PT KAI based on financial aspect. So in conclusion, the project in the long term can be the
improvement agent for financial performance of PT KAI
4. Conclusion and Implementation Plan
From the analysis of the business issue exploration and solution, there are several conclusions:
1. The current financial performance of the firm is record increasing performance since
2009, where PT KAI record loss in their profit and loss account
2. Based on benchmarking analysis, the current financial performance is excel in several
indicator, since there are several differences in financial strategy and condition
between the benchmarked company
3. For rating assessment, the rating in Indonesian State‐Owned Enterprise framework and
Moodys framework both record good rating, although need several improvement
4. For the capital structure, PT KAI still have a space to eager the debt ratio to increase
the value of the firm
5. The project feasibility study conclude that the project is feasible to be performed
6. The project would bring value added to the firm, thus increase the rating of the
company so it is very recommended to the management to optimize the project the
best
The implementation plan of Soekarno‐Hattta Project is started from 2012 and estimated in 2014 the
route ready to operate. To build the route, PT KAI will use existing track from Manggarai – Sudirman ‐
Tanah Abang – Duri – Batu Ceper (loop line Jabodetabek) and must constructed the new track from
Batu Ceper to Soekarno‐Hatta Airport.
For folling stock, PT KAI will use Electic Multiple Unit 10 train set with initial investment as follow
Table 12 . Rolling Stock Investment Plan
For the initial investment is as follows
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Table 13. Initial Investment for Soekarno‐Hatta Project
For financing the project, PT KAI will use loan as funding source. The scenario of payment will describe
in the following table
Table 14. Loan Payment Scenario for Soekarno‐Hatta Project
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