Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

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Science of the Total Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv

Assessment of current and future land use/cover changes in soil erosion in

the Rio da Prata basin (Brazil)
⁎
Elias Rodrigues da Cunha a,c, Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos b, , Richarde Marques da Silva a, Elói Panachuki d,
Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira e, Naelmo de Souza Oliveira d, Karina dos Santos Falcão d
a
Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil
c
Department of Geography, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
d
Department of Agronomy, State University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Agronomy Department, Aquidauana, MS 79200-000, Brazil
e
Graduate Program in Environmental Technologies, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• Current and future environmental

changes in the Serra da Bodoquena Na-
tional Park
• Evaluation of the impacts of soil loss and
sediment delivery ratio over the last
30 years
• Estimation of soil losses for 1986, 1999,
2007 and 2016 based on RUSLE
• Estimation of SDR, sediment export and
sediment deposition based on InVEST
model
• Estimation of future soil erosion scenarios
for 2050 and 2100 based on the hybrid
model CA-Markov

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: In recent years, the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Brazilian savannah) has faced severe environmental problems due to
Received 3 August 2021 abrupt changes in land use/cover (LUC), causing increased soil loss, sediment yield and water turbidity. Thus, this
Received in revised form 9 November 2021 study aimed to evaluate the impacts of soil loss and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) over the last 30 years to simulate
Accepted 15 November 2021
future scenarios of soil losses from 2050 to 2100 and to investigate an episode of sediment delivery that occurred in
Available online 20 November 2021
the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) in 2018. In this study, the following were used: an estimation of soil losses for 1986,
Editor: Fernando A.L. Pacheco 1999, 2007 and 2016 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an estimation of SDR, sediment export
and sediment deposition using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, an asso-
Keywords: ciation of RUSLE factor C to LUC data for 2050 and 2100 based on the CA-Markov hybrid model, and an estimation of
Soil erosion future soil erosion scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The results show that over the last 30 years (1986–2016), there has
Sediment delivery ratio been a reduction in the areas of highly intense and severe degrees. Future soil erosion scenarios (2050–2100) showed
InVEST model a 13.84% increase in areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha−1 year−1. The results highlighted the importance of assessing the
RUSLE impacts of LUC changes on soil erosion and the export of sediments to agricultural watersheds in the RPB, one of
CA-Markov model
the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil. In addition, the increase in soil loss in the region intensified sediment
Cerrado biome
yield events and increased water turbidity. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved, was not able to pro-
tect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural production
areas of the basin, especially where ramps are extensive or the slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity

⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: celso@ct.ufpb.br (C.A.G. Santos).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151811
0048-9697/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
E.R. Cunha et al.
and control the movement of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals. The results of this study are useful
for drawing up a soil and water conservation plan for the sustainable production of agriculture and maintenance of
ecosystem services in the region.
1. Introduction
Soil erosion is considered the greatest global threat to environmental
land degradation because it intensely affects the soil physical structure
and productive capacity and is simultaneously driven by multiple factors
(FAO, 2019; Jin et al., 2021). Concern about the impacts that erosion causes
on the environment has been increasing worldwide. However, studies ad-
dressing land use/cover (LUC) changes, sediment yield and water turbidity
are still scarce, especially for the Brazilian Cerrado biome (Cunha et al.,
2020). The Cerrado biome in Brazil has a history of environmental issues
with changes in the LUC due to the advance of agriculture (Cunha et al.,
2021) and high climate variability (Cunha et al., 2017; Anache et al.,
2018; Falcão et al., 2020) that increase soil loss, sediment yield and nutrient
loading (Fu et al., 2000; Harisuseno, 2020; Kavianpour et al., 2020).
Studies indicate that soil erosion is highest in croplands and unforested
basins, pointing to the importance of soil cover (Nacinovic et al., 2014; J.A.
Oliveira et al., 2015; P.T.S. Oliveira et al., 2015; Teng et al., 2018; Rutebuka
et al., 2019; Panagos et al., 2019; Pijl et al., 2020; Santos et al., 2021). How-
ever, the soil erosion assessment in the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) is a diffi-
cult task because RPB is a complex basin with several activities
(e.g., pasture, agriculture, and ecotourism) with different purposes and ef-
fects on the environment. Hence, this paper was designed to contribute to-
wards a better understanding of relationships between LUC changes, soil
loss, water turbidity and future soil erosion based on various models and in-
dicators for the RPB. It is the first study to assess current and future soil ero-
sion in RPB, which is one of the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil, using
the CA-Markov and InVEST models. In addition, it is worth highlighting
that it is also the only study that investigated sediment deposition that oc-
curred in 2018 in such an area. Thus, predicting the current and future im-
pacts of LUC changes on soil erosion is very important to understand how
anthropogenic actions influence soil loss and sediment yield in the RPB in
the Cerrado biome, Brazil. In addition, it is important to encourage the in-
stallation of meteorological stations and suspended sediment measurement
campaigns in the region. Therefore, assessing potential LUC change impacts
on erosion is fundamental for better understanding, planning and manage-
ment of water resources under climate variability in the Cerrado biome so
that it can continuously provide water resources and ecological services
(de Oliveira et al., 2019). According to Oo et al. (2020), understanding cli-
mate change is necessary for the security of hydrological conditions in river
basins, and it is very important to study the climate change impacts on run-
off by analyzing the different climate scenarios. Precipitation impacts can
be analyzed using a variety of methods, for instance, drought indices
(Harisuseno, 2020; Brasil Neto et al., 2020; Brasil Neto et al., 2021), rainfall
erosivity (Da Silva et al., 2020), and spatial variation (Brito et al., 2021).
Furthermore, techniques used to simulate LUC changes have been used
to estimate future LUC using a multi-year transfer matrix (Kamusoko et al.,
2009), such as cellular automata (CA). Several studies have been developed
on LUC predictions in different regions. In recent years, the CA model has
been extensively used to map urban growth patterns and predict future
changes in LUC, and several studies have coupled the use of the CA-
Markov hybrid model with soil erosion models (Hou et al., 2019; Cunha
et al., 2021) due to its perceptiveness, flexibility, and ability to integrate
spatiotemporal dimensions of LUC changes (Matlhodi et al., 2021; Hishe
et al., 2020; Mansour et al., 2020; Hou et al., 2019).
Examples of several models to study environmental problems caused by
soil erosion can be found in Batista et al. (2019). Among the most used
models, the Universal Soil Loss Equation – USLE (Wischmeier and Smith,
1978), the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation – RUSLE (Renard et al.,
1997), the Water Erosion Prediction Project – WEPP (Nearing et al.,
1989), the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation – MUSLE (Williams and
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Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
Berndt, 1972), and the European Soil Erosion Model – EUROSEM
(Morgan et al., 1998) can be highlighted. Among them, RUSLE has been
widely used as a robust tool to estimate water erosion rates (Panagos and
Katsoyiannis, 2019).
The changes in LUC have a direct effect on hydrological processes, sed-
iment yield at a basin scale (Gashaw et al., 2018; Anand et al., 2018; Zhou
et al., 2019; Aneseyee et al., 2020; Luetzenburg et al., 2020; Woznicki et al.,
2020). However, there are studies on the impacts of intense modification of
LUC on runoff and soil erosion in the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Falcão et al.,
2020). In this study, we analyze in more depth the impacts of changes in the
LUC on soil erosion, and this was divided into three steps. The first step was
to use environmental modeling techniques to detect current and future
changes in LUC. The second step was to estimate recent and future soil
loss and the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) using the RUSLE for the study
area. The third step was to analyze the sediment deposition in the RPB in
2018.
The changes in LUC have a direct effect on hydrological processes and
sediment yield at a basin scale (Aneseyee et al., 2020; Luetzenburg et al.,
2020; Zhou et al., 2019; Gashaw et al., 2018; Anand et al., 2018). However,
there are very few studies on the impacts of intense modification of LUC on
runoff and soil erosion in the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Falcão et al., 2020).
Studies on LUC changes, sediment yield and water turbidity are also scarce,
especially for Brazilian Cerrado basins (Cunha et al., 2020; Cunha et al.,
2021).
In recent decades, pasture and crop succession (soybean and corn) have
replaced areas previously occupied by forests. The problem of LUC changes
associated with the rainy season in RPB has caused rapid turbidity of its wa-
ters by sediments from agricultural areas. Thus, studies on water turbidity
and current and future impacts of soil erosion on one of the best ecotourism
destinations in Brazil, such as the Rio da Prata, is an important study that
needs to be carried out. As one of the consequences, river water turbidity
can be highlighted, pointed out by the owners of ecotourism projects in
the region, who report that the waters of the RPB are taking longer to
clear than in previous years (it used to be three to four days and now it is
about one week) (Cunha et al., 2021). This change in water turbidity has
kept away tourists who would like to visit attractions, mainly due to the
water transparency of the rivers in the Serra da Bodoquena area. Therefore,
studying the soil erosion and water turbidity in the region is very important
for fauna and flora conservation and tourism activities. Recently,
multitemporal LUC maps associated with soil erosion models have been
used to analyze delivery ratios, sediment deposition, and sediment and
water retention in ecosystem services (Ureta et al., 2021; Aneseyee et al.,
2020; Zhou et al., 2019; Woznicki et al., 2020).
Thus, it is important to map and quantify current and future soil erosion
to assess the impacts of LUC changes on the soil degradation process (Teng
et al., 2018; Gomes et al., 2019). Soil erosion quantification can provide a
consistent basis for managers and policymakers to formulate effective plan-
ning and soil and water conservation for the sustainable development of the
RPB. Hence, the objectives of this study were (i) to assess the impacts of soil
erosion and sediment delivery ratio in 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016, (ii) to
estimate future scenarios of soil erosion in 2050 and 2100, and (iii) investi-
gate an episode of sediment delivery and water turbidity in the Rio da Prata
that occurred on November 17, 2018.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The RPB is located between latitudes 21°16′12″S and 21°39′36″S and
longitudes 56°12′36″W and 56°46′48″W (Fig. 1). The RPB has an area of
E.R. Cunha et al.
Fig. 1. (a) Location of the RPB in Mato Grosso do Sul State in Brazil, (b) location of the RPB, Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes, and grid cells of the Tropical Rain-
fall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and (c) digital elevation model (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission – SRTM) of the RPB.
1392 km2 and, based on the Köppen classification, has a tropical savannah
climate (Aw) with rainy summers and dry winters. The rainfall in this re-
gion ranges between 1750 and 2000 mm/year with a mean temperature
of 22 °C (Zavattini, 2009).
The RPB is inserted within the macro-units of the Paraná sedimentary
basin and the upper Paraguay River basin (Brasil, 1982). The RPB has pre-
dominantly a smooth undulating relief (hills), and the minimum and max-
imum altitudes are 200 m and 610 m, respectively. It should be mentioned
that the highest slopes (greater than 45%) can be found in the Serra da
Bodoquena National Park.
The RPB is located between the Pantanal Plain and the Bodoquena Pla-
teau, and this basin is unusual because it has atypical physiographic charac-
teristics (Cunha et al., 2020). This region has a significant heterogeneity of
phyto-physiognomies and has the richest flora among the world's savannas,
with a high level of endemism (Parente et al., 2021). Although it is in the
domain of the Cerrado biome (Brazilian savannah), it suffers the effect of
the inland Atlantic Forest (Pott and Pott, 2003). It is worth noting that eco-
tourism activities started in the region in the mid-1980s (Barbosa and
Zamboni, 2000). RPB is part of the Bodoquena-Pantanal Geopark and, ac-
cording to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organi-
zation (UNESCO), it is recognized as an important area with a fragile
ecosystem and of great tourist interest. Ecotourism ventures located along
the RPB depend exclusively on great biodiversity, as well as water transpar-
ency and quality (Cunha et al., 2020). The relevance of tourism activities
for this region can be analyzed by the influence of the amount of money
in the tourism sector, which influences the local economy, generating a rev-
enue of US $ 56 million (Bonito, 2017). According to MTE (2019), the tour-
ism sector was responsible for more than half of the formal jobs generated
in 2016 in the municipality of Bonito. In addition, this region received
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Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
approximately 213,000 tourists in 2016, an increase of 4.17% compared
with 2015.
2.2. Modeling LUC change
The CA-Markov hybrid model was used in the TerrSet software
(Eastman, 2012), and the LUC scenarios of 2050 and 2100 were simulated
to assess the effects of agricultural activities in the study area. The CA-
Markov hybrid model was used due to its advantages in predicting future
conditions of cultivated land and has been extensively utilized to simulate
LUC changes (Oliveira et al., 2018; Palmate et al., 2017). In this paper,
LUC maps for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016 (scale 1:150,000) were used,
which were prepared by Cunha et al. (2020). Then, the Markovian transi-
tion estimator on the 1999 and 2007 maps was applied to simulate LUC
changes in 2016 using the transition probability matrix for a LUC class.
These dates were chosen due to the representativeness of the LUC changes.
To model the LUC changes, a transition probability adequacy map with 14
natural and socioeconomic factors (banhado to agriculture, pasture to agri-
culture, banhado to plowed land, pasture to plowed land, riparian forest to
pasture, cerrado to pasture, wet grasslands to pasture, fire hotspots, soils,
slope, roads, drainage networks, artificial drainage canals, and farm bound-
aries) was added. These transitions were defined based on the authors' knowl-
edge of the study area. To evaluate the exactness of the predicted LUC, the
2016 LUC map was used as a reference, and to calibrate the model, a total
of 30 tests was used. This quantity was determined based on the combina-
tions between the explanatory variables and the weights used. More informa-
tion about the CA-Markov hybrid model calibration and validation are
described in Cunha et al. (2021). In this study, the 2016 LUC map was used
to simulate the future LUC scenario for 2050 and 2100.
E.R. Cunha et al.
2.3. InVEST model: determination of soil erosion and sediment export
The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST
3.9.0) model (Sharp et al., 2020) was used to map and quantify soil loss in
the RPB. In this study, we calculated the soil erosion and sediment export
using the SDR module in the InVEST. This module is based on the concept
of hydrological connectivity and has been widely used in recent years
(Shrestha et al., 2021; Guerra et al., 2020; Woznicki et al., 2020; Zhou
et al., 2019). This model enables the characterization of the hydrological
connectivity of the basin and overcomes the limitations of conventional
soil erosion models (Sharp et al., 2020), and is widely applied due to the
small amount of input data, as it only uses the digital elevation model
(DEM) of the study area. Furthermore, this model can easily be adapted
to a specific context and for readily available data, either global or local
(Aneseyee et al., 2020), and the hydrological connectivity results are con-
sidered satisfactory (Vigiak et al., 2012).
The SDR calculates the soil erosion and sediment export, integrating the
amount of annual soil losses with the connectivity index (CI). The SDR is
calculated through Eq. (1) (Vigiak et al., 2012).
SDRmax
SDRi ¼
 ð1Þ
CI0 −CIi
1 þ exp
Kb
where SDRmax is the maximum theoretical SDR, CI0 and Kb are calibration
parameters that determine the shape of the relationship between the CI and
the SDR (Sharp et al., 2020). In this study, the default values of SDR = 0.8,
CI0 = 0.5, and Kb = 2 were adopted (Hamel et al., 2017; Hamel et al.,
2015; Vigiak et al., 2012), and the threshold flow accumulation was set
to 1000.
In the InVEST model, the CI is calculated by Eqs. (2)–(4) and their re-
sults determine the degree of hydrological connection in the basin (from
a pixel to the stream). Thus, the proportion of soil losses that actually
reaches the river is obtained based on its area of upward contribution and
flow path to the stream (Borselli et al., 2008).


Dup
IC ¼ log10 ð2Þ
Ddn
pffiffiffiffiffi
 Ac
Dup ¼ CS ð3Þ
di
Ddn ¼ ∑i ð4Þ
Ci Si
where Dup is the upslope component, where C is the average C factor of the
upslope contributing area, S is the average slope gradient of the upslope
contributing area (m/m) and Ac is the upslope contributing area (m2), Ddn
is the downslope component, di is the average length of the flow path in
the downslope direction, from the ith pixel to the stream (m), and Ci and
Si are the C factor and the slope gradient of the ith pixel, respectively. The
upslope and downslope contributing areas are delineated from a multiple-
flow direction algorithm (Tarboton, 1997).
The sediment export Ei (Mg ha−1 year−1) in a given pixel i is calculated
using Eq. (5), representing the amount of sediment eroded from that pixel.
Ei ¼ RUSLE i  SDRi ð5Þ
The total sediment export E (Mg ha−1 year−1) in the basin is given by
Eq. (6):
X
E¼ Ei ð6Þ
i
In the SDR module, the deposition of sediment downslope, the amount of
sediments that did not reach the watercourse and was deposited somewhere
in the landscape, was estimated. Knowing the spatial distribution of the de-
posited sediments allows us to track the net change (gain or loss) of sediments
4
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
in one pixel. Then, for example, the degree of soil degradation in a basin can
be evaluated. This sediment load was calculated based on Eq. (7).
E0i ¼ RUSLEi ð1−SDRiÞ ð7Þ
where E′i is the amount of sediment deposited in the landscape, and RUSLE is
the annual amount of soil loss (Mg ha−1 year−1).
A unique characteristic of the InVEST model is its capacity to analyze
soil loss and sediment export from each land use type and quantify the
amount of sediment joined to the water bodies, including streams and res-
ervoirs. To simulate the soil loss in the InVEST model, RUSLE factors, DEM,
maximum SDR, vector data (basin and sub-basins boundaries), and the bio-
physical parameter table are needed. InVEST takes a comprehensive ap-
proach, which calculates and maps the soil loss, and the delivery and
sediment export rates in the basin's outlet. In addition, it also provides the
amount of sediment that does not reach the watercourse, which is depos-
ited in the landscape. In this study, each dataset was prepared according
to the data format requirements for model application. All the data were
projected to UTM projection, datum SIRGAS2000 zone 21 S. The input
data (i.e., digital elevation model (raster), rainfall erosivity index (raster),
soil erodibility (raster), land-use/land-cover (raster), watershed, biophysi-
cal table for 2016, 2050 and 2100 (csv), and biophysical tables for 1986,
1999 and 2007 (csv)) are available at doi.org/10.17632/skfg3w7wdm.1.
2.4. RUSLE model
RUSLE was applied to calculate the geographical distribution of soil loss
(Eq. (8)), based on five factors shown in Fig. 2d. In this study, six degrees of
erosion were defined based on some values of soil loss tolerance for soils
found in Brazil: slight (0–2 Mg ha−1 year−1), light (2–5 Mg ha−1 year−1),
moderate (5–10 Mg ha−1 year−1), intense (10–20 Mg ha−1 year−1), ex-
tremely intense (20–50 Mg ha−1 year−1) and severe (>50 Mg ha−1 year−1).
A ¼ R  K  LS  C  P ð8Þ
in which A is soil loss calculated per area (Mg ha−1 year−1), R is rainfall
erosivity factor (Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1), K is soil erodibility factor
(Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1), LS is the topographic factor, C is LUC and the
management factor, and P is the conservation practice factor.
2.4.1. Erosivity factor (R)
In Brazil, particularly in the Midwest and North regions, there is an uneven
spatial distribution of rainfall stations and a historical data time series short-
age. This distribution impairs the calculation of the erosivity index using ob-
served rainfall data, as reported by Oliveira et al. (2012) and Trindade et al.
(2016). Due to this problem for the RPB, rainfall estimate data from the Trop-
ical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (Huffman et al., 2007) were used. In
this study, rainfall data related to 20 grids from the TRMM satellite algorithm
3B42, version 7 with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° (Fig. 1b) for the 22-
year period (01/01/1998 to 01/01/2019) were used. The TRMM data were
chosen because they showed a good correlation with the observed data and
proved to be a reliable source of rainfall data for regions of the Cerrado
biome and other Brazilian regions with the absence of rain gauges, as reported
by Oliveira et al. (2012), Melo et al. (2015), Santos et al. (2017, 2018, 2019a,
2019b) and Brasil Neto et al. (2020, 2021). The erosivity factor (R) was calcu-
lated based on Eq. (9), developed by Oliveira et al. (2012), who estimated the
average values of this factor for the Mato Grosso do Sul State.
R ¼ 80:305ðMFIÞ0:8966 ð9Þ
where MFI is the modified Fournier index, which is given as:
X
12
p2
MFI ¼ i
ð10Þ
i¼1
Pt
where p is the mean monthly rainfall (mm), and Pt is the mean annual rainfall
(mm).
E.R. Cunha et al. Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

Fig. 2. (a) Partial view of the LUC classes, (b) LUC map (2016) and soil collection points, (c) details of sample collection in the field and soil analysis, (d) map of the five factors used
in RUSLE and annual soil loss for 2016. Photo: Artificial drainage (Geographer Cristiano Rodrigues), banhado and riparian forest (Instituto Homem Pantaneiro- IHP) and seasonal
forest (Bruna Andrade).

In this study, the spatial distribution of the R factor was developed in the The total organic carbon (TOC) in soil was estimated by the oxidation of or-
ArcGIS 10.2 software using the ordinary kriging method with the Gaussian ganic matter using a potassium dichromate, as used by Yeomans and
model. The Gaussian model was chosen because it presented the best statis- Bremner (1988). Finally, based on the values of the soil physical (texture,
tical result compared to the circular, spherical, and exponential models structure and permeability) and chemical (organic matter) characteristics,
(Table 1). Other studies also obtained a better performance using the ordi- the K factor was calculated (Table 2) by the nomogram analytical method
nary kriging method with the Gaussian model for interpolation of (Wischmeier et al., 1971) using expression (Eq. (11)):
erosivity (e.g., Moges et al., 2020; Panagos et al., 2017). The R factor was     
used to estimate the current and future soil losses. K ¼ 2:1M 1:14 10−4 ð12−OMÞ þ 3:25ðe−2Þ þ 2:5ðp−3Þ =100 0:1317
ð11Þ
−1 −1 −1
2.4.2. Soil erodibility factor (K) where K is the soil erodibility factor (Mg h ha MJ mm ), M is the soil
The soil map used in this study (scale 1:100,000) was prepared based on grain size parameter [(% silt + % very fine sand) × (100 − % clay)], OM is
a soil survey carried out by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
and is available at http://mapoteca.cnps.embrapa.br. In this study, field-
Table 2
work on soil collection was carried out in 2016, 2018 and 2019, when 66 Soil classes and K factor value.
samples were collected in the depth range of 0–20 cm at 22 points in the
Brazilian soil classification FAO K factor in
basin (Fig. 2b). The grain size analysis of the soil samples (Fig. 2c) was per- classification Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1
formed using the pipette method according to methodological procedures
Dystrophic red latosols Ferralsols 0.0297
described in the soil analysis method manual (Embrapa, 2017). Table 2
Dystrophic haplic plinthosols Plinthosols 0.0525
shows the soil types and K factor values for each soil existing in the basin. Orthic rendzina chernozems Chernozems 0.0290
Dystrophic red nitisols Nitisols 0.0196
Orthic argiluvic chernozems Chernozems 0.0565
Table 1 Dystrophic red acrisols Acrisols 0.0447
Statistical indices of the models evaluated for interpolation of erosivity. Haplic cambisols Tb dystrophic Cambisols 0.0219
Statistic index Transitive theoretical mathematical models Eutrophic red nitisols Nitisols 0.0196
Haplic gleysols carbonate Gleysols 0.0388
Circular Spherical Exponential Gaussian Haplic gleysols Tb eutrophica Gleysols 0.0561
Mean 0.84 1.06 1.48 2.95 Haplic gleysols Tb eutrophicb Gleysols 0.0388
Root mean square error 40.36 40.75 48.61 43.55 a
Gleysols located on the banks and springs of the tributaries of the Rio da Prata.
Average standard error 100.70 102.97 126.80 18.18 b
Gleysols on the banhado.

5
E.R. Cunha et al. Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

Table 3
Values of C and P factors for LUC classes in the RPB.
LUC classes C factor Reference P factor Reference

Pasture 0.016 Galdino (2012) 0.5 and 1.0⁎ Galdino (2012)

Crop agriculture 0.143 Bertol et al. (2001) 0.5 and 1.0⁎ Bertol et al. (2001)
Plowed land 1.000 Cunha et al. (2017) 1.0 Cunha et al. (2017)
Banhado 0.010 J.A. Oliveira et al. (2015), P.T.S. Oliveira et al. (2015) 1.0
Riparian forest 0.013 J.A. Oliveira et al. (2015), P.T.S. Oliveira et al. (2015) 0.8
Cerrado 0.013 J.A. Oliveira et al. (2015), P.T.S. Oliveira et al. (2015) 0.8
Seasonal semideciduous forest 0.020 Martins et al. (2010) 0.8
Wet grasslands 0.010 J.A. Oliveira et al. (2015), P.T.S. Oliveira et al. (2015) 1.0
Water bodies 0.000 Cunha et al. (2017) 0.0
Barren land 1.000 Cunha et al. (2017) 1.0

⁎ The value 0.5 was set for areas with terraces and 1.0 for areas without terraces.

the organic matter (%), e is the soil structure index (dimensionless), and p is
the soil permeability index (dimensionless).
2.4.3. Topographic factor (LS)
The LS factor was applied to each pixel of the DEM extracted from the
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) images, with a grid with 1 arc
sec (~30 m). The LS factor is calculated in the InVEST model using the
method developed by Desmet and Govers (1996) (Sharp et al., 2020).
2.4.4. LUC and management and conservation practice factors
In this study, LUC maps for 1986, 1999, 2007, and 2016 made by satel-
lite images (Landsat 5 and 8) and the object-based image analysis (OBIA)
were used. For future LUC scenarios for 2050 and 2100, the maps generated
by using the CA-Markov hybrid model were used. High spatial resolution
images from Google Earth (Maxar Technologies/CNES-Airbus) and the vi-
sual image interpretation technique were used to identify pasture and agri-
cultural areas that use terraces as conservation practices.
The P factor is the relationship between the soil losses of land cultivated
with a conservationist practice and the loss when planting in the direction
of the slope (downhill) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). The most common
conservation practices for annual crops are contour planting, strip planting
and terracing (Bertoni and Lombardi Neto, 1985). The P factor values were
assigned only for 2007 and 2016 due to the availability of Google Earth im-
ages, which began to be published in 2002. For 2050 and 2100, the values
of factor P extracted as a basis for 2016 were used. In this study, the values
of the C and P factors were used for the LUC classes of the RPB (Fig. 2a and
Table 3) due to the greater certainty of these values, as these factors were
based on studies carried out in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes
in field experiments and showed excellent results (Bertol et al., 2001,
Martins et al., 2010; Galdino, 2012; J.A. Oliveira et al., 2015; P.T.S.
Oliveira et al., 2015; Cunha et al., 2017). In addition, the use of the C
factor estimates using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI), for example, can lead to uncertainties in the values obtained
for the images used.

Fig. 3. Estimation of soil losses, SDR, and sediment export from the RPB for (a) 1986, (b) 1999, (c) 2007, and (d) 2016.

6
E.R. Cunha et al.
3. Results
3.1. Changes in soil losses, SDR and sediment exports from 1986 to 2016
Fig. 3 shows that the spatial distribution of soil losses and SDR were con-
sistent with the disposal of sediment exports in the RPB for 1986, 1999, 2007,
and 2016. In 1986, the maximum soil loss was 1594.72 Mg ha−1 year−1
with an average value of 6.08 Mg ha−1 year−1. Anache et al. (2018)
analyzed LUC and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion
at a hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado and obtained results that
can be considered close to those obtained in this study. In 1999, a
Fig. 4. Soil loss rate, LUC area percentage and sediment export from 1986 to 2016.
7
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
reduction in the maximum value of soil losses was observed as
1539.13 Mg ha−1 year−1 and an average of 3.13 Mg ha−1 year−1. In
2007, the maximum soil loss value decreased by 22.77%
(350.58 Mg ha −1 year−1 ). In that same year, the average loss was
1.63 Mg ha−1 year−1, a reduction of 72.92% when compared to 1986.
In 2016, the maximum loss reached 1167.29 Mg ha−1 year−1 with an
average value of 2.44 Mg ha−1 year−1. Between 1986 and 2016, reduc-
tions in the maximum and average soil loss values were estimated at
26.80% and 59.47%, respectively. These results are close to those
obtained by Falcão et al. (2020), who estimated soil losses using a
rainfall simulator for different vegetation covers.
E.R. Cunha et al.
The SDR values (Fig. 4) for the basin in 1986, 1999, 2007, and 2016
were 0.377, 0.374, 0.372, and 0.350, respectively. During this period, the
results showed an irregularity in the spatial distribution of the SDR values.
In 1986, the highest SDR values occurred mainly in the hill areas close to
the Rio Verde drainage canals (main tributary of the Rio da Prata) in the
southeastern portion of the basin, while the lowest values were in the south-
western and northeastern regions in the flat relief areas. In 2016, the
highest values occupied the southwestern and northwestern regions of
the study area. Between 1986 and 2016, high SDR values showed an in-
crease in agricultural areas (crop agriculture and plowed land) and a reduc-
tion in pasture and barren land. In plowed land, the SDR ranged from 0.351
in 1986 to 0.372 in 2016, while in crop agriculture, it was from 0.271 to
0.303. In contrast, the SDR for pasture and barren land decreased from
0.305 to 0.255 and 0.377 to 0.306, respectively. The increase in SDR values
for agricultural areas and the reduction in pasture and barren land, and
changes in spatial distribution are due to the intense dynamics of changes
in LUC that occurred in the RPB (Fig. 4). Cunha et al. (2020) found that
the changes that occurred over the three decades in the basin were due to
the advance of agriculture and livestock. Initially, with extensive livestock
farming that predominated in the region before the 1980s, and more re-
cently, due to the expansion of crop succession (maize/soybean), and the
conversion of some pasture areas to agricultural land (Cunha et al., 2021).
The results show a decrease in soil loss of approximately 60.02% in the
analyzed period. In addition, total sediment exports decreased significantly
by 69.86%, from 1 million tonnes to 321,000 t in the last 30 years. The max-
imum sediment export rate was 486.18 Mg ha−1 year−1 in 1986, reducing
to 146.65 Mg ha−1 year−1 in 2016 (Fig. 4). During this period, following
the trend, the average sediment export decreased considerably from 0.63
to 0.19 Mg ha−1 year−1, a reduction of 69.84%. The reduction in sediment
exports was mainly caused by the transition from the higher SDR values to
areas of flat relief, associated with soils with a low erosion index, in addi-
tion, the occurrence of pastures with good vegetation cover, and the adop-
tion of terraces (identified since 2002) on a large part of these pastures and
agricultural lands minimized soil losses, consequently reducing the amount
of sediment exports to the Rio da Prata.
3.2. RUSLE factors
3.2.1. Erosivity factor (R)
Fig. 5a shows that the annual average of the R factor was of
8596.36 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1. This value obtained in this study
Rate (Mg ha−1 year−1)
1400
1000
600
200
80
LUC apportionment (%)
60
40
20
1986
Water bodies
Wet grasslands
Seasonal semideciduous forest
Cerrado
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution: (a) erosivity factor, (b) topographic factors, and (c) soil classes and K factor.
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
corroborates with estimates for the region by previous studies
(e.g., Oliveira et al., 2012; Almagro et al., 2017). The lowest values were ob-
served in the northeast of the basin, while the highest values occurred in the
southeastern and northwestern Bodoquena Plateau (Fig. 5a).
3.2.2. Erodibility factor (K)
The values of the K factor (Fig. 5c) ranged from 0.0196 to
0.0565 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1, with an average value of 0.0340 Mg h ha−1
MJ−1 mm−1. The highest values of erodibility occur in orthic Chernozems
(0.0565 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1) and haplic Gleysols1 (0.0561 Mg h ha−1
MJ−1 mm−1), dystrophic haplic Plintosols (0.0525 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1)
and dystrophic Red Acrisols 0.0447 (Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1).
The orthic Chernozems located in the central-north region vary from
shallow to deep, with a silty-frank texture, moderately to well-drained
and with a chernozenic horizon rich in organic matter. They have excellent
agricultural potential due to their natural fertility due to the great litholog-
ical variability (limestones, dolomites, clay, and carbonate rocks) of the
Cuiabá group (Brazil, 1982). However, attention should be paid to their
use, as these soils have a textural gradient between the horizons due to
the clayey process, vertical migration of clay particles from the surface ho-
rizons to the subsurface horizons, forming the textural B horizons or with
clayey characteristics. However, attention should be paid to their use, as
these soils have a textural gradient between the horizons due to the vertical
migration process of clay particles from the surface horizons to the subsur-
face horizons, forming textural B horizons or with clayey characteristics
(Dos Santos et al., 2018). As a result, less structure and stability on the sur-
face horizons due to the lower clay contents, even presenting high levels of
other binding agents such as organic matter (Šimanský & Jonczak, 2016).
The haplic Gleysols (Fig. 5c) occur in the northeastern and southeastern
portions of the basin, more specifically on the banks and springs of the trib-
utaries of the Rio da Prata. These soils are generally poorly drained and
have low permeability. In addition, they have a high propensity to erosion
due to factors, such as mineralogical composition rich in felsic minerals
(Aquidauana Formation), high sand content, and low organic matter con-
tent (Cunha et al., 2017; Brasil, 1982). These characteristics hinder the for-
mation of more stable structures, making these soils more susceptible to
erosive processes. In addition, due to their occurrence in river plains, they
are subject to periodic flooding.
The lowest erodibility values (<0.029 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1) were
found for soils located in the Bodoquena Plateau region. Red Nitisols
(0.0196 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1) and Rendzina Chernozems
Soil loss
Sediment export
0.375
0.365
SDR
0.355
0.345
1999 2007 2016
Riparian forest Plowed land
Banhado Pasture
Barren land
Crop agriculture Soil loss
8
E.R. Cunha et al.
(0.029 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1) are soils that have a high content of or-
ganic matter and have a clay texture and silty clay, respectively. These
soils are shallow and poorly developed with calcium or carbonate A hori-
zons, with a silty clay texture. In addition, they present a chernozemic A ho-
rizon rich in organic matter and high levels of nutrients, being, therefore,
considered one of the most fertile soils in the world, which resulted from
the decomposition of limestones from the Bocaina Formation (IUSS
Working Group WRB, 2015). However, they are highly fragile because
they occupy dissected relief surfaces in the Bodoquena Plateau.
Red Nitisols are mineral, clayey, deep, well-drained soils, marked
waxy due to the migration processes of clays and block structures,
which provides less susceptibility to water erosion (Demattê and Da
Silva Terra, 2014; Dos Santos et al., 2018). Soils with textures between
clay loam and clay, such as Red Nitisols (dystrophic and eutrophic)
and Red Latosol, presented high percentages of water-stable aggregates
in the soil macro-aggregates class, geometric mean diameter, and
weighted average diameter (WAD) indices.
3.2.3. LS factor
The results obtained show that the LS factor varied from 0.01 to 12.02
(Fig. 5b), with an average value of 0.52. The LS factor directly affects the
estimate of soil loss, as it comes from factors that organize runoff and the
development of erosion processes (Cunha et al., 2017). When analyzing
the spatial distribution of the LS factor and the slope, it is observed that
higher values of the LS factor occur in the Bodoquena Plateau. This geomor-
phological unit comprises a set of reliefs arranged in the North-South direc-
tion that have very dissected surfaces with convex tops with slopes greater
than 45%. Two areas with values higher than the average found for the
study area were also identified, i.e., to the north, close to the medium
Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of the conversion of pasture into agricultural area without adopting terracing promoted soil erosion that caused the turbidity of the waters of the
Rio da Prata in November 2018. Ecotourism ventures: (1) Recanto Ecológico Rio da Prata, (2) Jardim EcoPark, (3) Balneário do Assis, Balneário Santuário do Prata, and
(5) Lagoa Misteriosa. Photos: Recanto Ecológico do Rio da Prata and Luciano Candisani.
9
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
course of the Rio da Prata, and to the southeast, in the region drained by
the Rio Verde, considered the main tributary of the Rio da Prata.
3.2.4. C and P factors
It was identified that over three decades, the highest values of the C fac-
tor occurred in greater proportions in 1986. The areas of barren land are lo-
cated mainly to the southeast of the basin, close to the head of the Rio
Verde, whereas plowed land areas are found in the southwest, midwest,
and northwest regions of the basin. These areas are characterized by the
total absence of vegetation cover that favors soil loss due to water erosion.
The lowest values of the C factor were found in the areas of native vegeta-
tion (wet grasslands, banhado, riparian forest and cerrado) of the Cerrado
Biome located on the banks of drainage canals, around springs and areas
of forest remnants. These areas have a higher degree of soil protection
due to the constant presence of natural vegetation cover that reduces soil
loss and sediment transport to the drainage canals (Cunha et al., 2017).
3.3. Sediment deposition and turbidity of the waters of the Rio da Prata in 2018
The results obtained show that the CI and sediment deposition values
showed a reduction between 1986 and 2016. The CI decreased from
0.271 to 0.219, while the average sediment deposition decreased from
5.33 to 2.22 Mg ha−1 year−1. Fig. 6 shows the spatial distribution of the
CI and sediment deposition in the area where the Rio da Prata turbidity oc-
curred in 2018. The spatial distributions of the CI and sediment deposition
were analyzed (Fig. 6) to identify the factors that influenced the sediment
delivery in the main channel of Rio da Prata in 2018. High CI values were
observed within the area where sediment loading occurred, mainly deter-
mined by the long ramp length (L factor), indicative of topographically
E.R. Cunha et al. Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

Table 4
Classes of soil loss by the degree of erosion for 1986, 1999, 2007, and 2016.
Classes Soil erosion (Mg ha−1 year−1) 1986 1999 2007 2016

(%) MSL SD (%) MSL SD (%) MSL SD (%) MSL SD

Slight <2 82.34 0.44 0.46 85.16 0.45 0.46 90.11 0.37 0.43 84.59 0.38 0.44
Light 2–5 7.71 3.06 0.82 7.87 3.05 0.81 5.78 3.05 0.82 7.19 3.15 0.84
Moderate 5–10 2.59 7.01 1.43 2.40 6.95 1.42 1.88 6.99 1.42 3.52 7.12 1.44
Intense 10–20 2.06 14.42 2.88 1.66 14.36 2.88 1.05 13.89 2.78 2.45 13.92 2.78
Extremely Intense 20–50 2.43 32.01 8.44 1.61 31.35 8.35 0.67 31.49 8.57 1.45 31.00 8.53
Severe >50 2.87 145.41 115.61 1.30 123.35 94.43 0.51 121.97 96.33 0.80 106.31 74.29

MSL is the mean soil loss; SE is the mean standard deviation.

prone to erosion. Higher CI values indicate that the source of erosion is
more likely to reach the watercourse (Sharp et al., 2020). In addition, it
was found that the SDR was affected by the change in the surrounding
LUC (pasture to agriculture), which contributed to greater spatial connec-
tivity with the CI; therefore, the conversion of LUC also had an impact on
sediment export to the river.
3.4. Recent soil losses by the degree of erosion
The analysis of the erosion level of these areas throughout the basin
aims to serve as an instrument to guide public managers in decision-
making and implement measures for the conservation, recovery and sus-
tainable LUC and water in the RPB. According to FAO (2015), an acceptable
level of erosive potential helps maintain ecosystem services in the future
and ensure the maintenance of biodiversity (FAO, 2019). Table 4 shows
the identification of priority areas for soil and water conservation consider-
ing the values of soil losses for 1986, 1999, 2007, and 2016.
The results show that soil losses in the basin between 1986 and 2016 oc-
curred mainly in the slight and light classes, occupying an area of approxi-
mately 92% of the study area. It can be highlighted that despite the
predominance of losses <5 Mg ha−1 year−1, the basin presents severe prob-
lems of soil erosion, mainly due to anthropic interventions in the region of
the headwaters of Rio Verde (Fig. 7b and c) and banhado, as observed in
field visits in different locations of the basin. The results showed that losses
classified as extremely intense and severe occurred with greater intensity in
1986 (5.30% of the basin area). Concerning the 1986–2016 period, soil
losses >20 Mg ha−1 year−1 showed the lowest territorial extension of occu-
pation (1.19%) in 2007. However, the results showed that between 2007
and 2016, there was a considerable increase of 88.57% for the areas of ex-
tremely intense and severe degree. Colman et al. (2018) assessed soil ero-
sion for the Córrego Guariroba basin in the Cerrado biome and found the
levels of erosion, intense, extremely intense, and severe in areas with high
topographic factors with exposed soil and pasture. In general, between
1986 and 2016, there was a reduction in classified areas with extremely in-
tense (40.57%) and severe (72.20%) soil losses.
3.5. Future soil losses by the degree of erosion
Table 5 shows the future soil losses for 2050 and 2100. The results ob-
tained for the future soil erosion scenarios for that period showed a
13.84% growth in the areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha−1 year−1. When com-
paring soil losses 2016 and 2100, it can be observed an increase in area
in the moderate (34.41%), intense (36.41%) and extremely intense
(23.96%) classes, followed by a reduction in the severe class (3.14%).
3.6. Recent soil loss and sediment exports by LUC classes
The type of LUC (Table 6) that presented the lowest value of soil losses
(0.22 Mg ha−1 year−1) and sediment exports (0.01 Mg ha−1 year−1) was
the banhado in 2007. It was observed that between 1986 and 2016, the av-
erage rate of soil losses in this class varied just 8.69%, while the average ex-
port value of sediments did not change. The banhado plays a fundamental
environmental role in the region because this marshy class consists of po-
rous, cavernous limestone tufts with spongy features (Xaraiés Formation),
which is a result of the partial dissolution of the carbonate parts (Brazil,
1982). These characteristics are responsible for water storage and sediment

Fig. 7. Spatialization of soil loss and development of erosive processes: (a) wetland, (b) margins and (c) springs of the tributary streams of Rio Verde. In the same order are the
high-resolution images from Google Earth dated 2017, 2018 and 2019 and observation of erosion processes in situ in 2016, 2017 and 2014.

10
E.R. Cunha et al. Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

Table 5
Classes of soil loss by the degree of erosion for 2050 and 2100, and relative change between 2016 and 2100.
Classes Soil erosion (Mg ha−1 year−1) 2050 2100 Relative change
(2016–2100)

% Mean SD % Mean SD Area (ha) (%)

Slight <2 81.84 0.40 0.45 80.82 0.40 0.45 −5242.32 −4.46
Light 2–5 8.16 3.18 0.85 8.54 3.19 0.85 1869.84 18.70
Moderate 5–10 4.43 7.15 1.43 4.74 7.15 1.43 1686.15 34.41
Intense 10–20 3.11 13.91 2.77 3.34 13.91 2.77 1239.66 36.41
Extremely Intense 20–50 1.69 30.65 8.44 1.79 30.58 8.42 481.50 23.96
Severe >50 0.77 101.71 70.39 0.77 99.15 67.60 −34.83 −3.14

filtration, in addition to ensuring transparency, water quality and adding
scenic value in the context of the karst landscape (Boggiani et al., 2011;
Scremin-Dias et al., 2018; Cunha et al., 2020). However, tufts are fragile
and easily eroded river carbonate deposits. Tufts are formations that de-
pend on their waters' physical-chemical and biological conditions, and
any change in the pattern can cause irreversible damage to the tufts and,
consequently, affect ecotourism activities (Boggiani et al., 2011).
The banhado is characterized by a flat relief and soils with good agricul-
tural aptitude that favored the development of agriculture in this region
(Cunha et al., 2020). However, a matter of concern is the presence of ap-
proximately 124 km of artificial drainage canals built in the 1980s, aiming
to drain excess water and incorporate these areas in agricultural produc-
tion. If there is soil disturbance in the wetland areas, the artificial drainage
canals can intensify the soil load to the rivers. It is worth highlighting that in
flat areas with slopes less than 2%, the fastest paths to the water are towards
the drains (Wohlrab et al., 1992), which tend to increase the peak of runoff,
as the waters collected in these ditches are conducted more quickly
(Acreman and Holden, 2013; Lennartz et al., 2011).
Although this banhado region, without anthropic interference, is charac-
terized by good vegetation cover with typical species of veredas flora (Pott
et al., 2019), a slight steep relief, causing low erosive potential and an an-
nual rate of sediment export with values minimum, it was observed that
these drainage canals favored concentrated runoff, enabling the develop-
ment of erosive processes on the margins of some drains (Fig. 7a), which
has possibly contributed to carrying sediments into these canals. In addi-
tion, it was found that due to the connection of these drains with the
main channel of the Rio da Prata, the turbidity of its waters may occur in
the rainiest months (October to March), temporarily compromising activi-
ties by decreasing the transparency of the waters, precisely in the period
of the greatest concentration of tourists.
Based on this scenario, it is essential to close or isolate these artificial ca-
nals, as they affect the ecological integrity not only of the wetlands, but of
the entire RPB. Thus, to reduce the amount of suspended sediment and
for the maintenance of this wetland, a conservation unit needs to be cre-
ated. This theme is complex for public managers, environmental agencies,
and rural producers with different interests (agronomic, ecological, eco-
nomic, and social). However, effective conservation measures must be
adopted to mitigate and control these erosive processes to preserve this
ecosystem. Between 1986 and 2016, the average soil loss in the pasture
was 0.72 Mg ha−1 year−1 and 0.04 Mg ha−1 year−1 of sediment export.
Cunha et al. (2017) and Colman et al. (2018) found higher values
(6.37 Mg ha−1 year−1 and <20 Mg ha−1 year−1) for pasture areas located
in the Cerrado biome. Our results are consistent with those observed by
Aneseyee et al. (2020) that showed minimum values (~0.01 Mg ha−1
year−1) of sediment export in pasture areas.
The results showed that the pasture had average soil losses of
<2 Mg ha−1 year−1 (slight); however, the results indicate that the moder-
ate (Fig. 7c) and extreme (Fig. 7b) soil losses occurred in the southeastern
and extreme southeastern parts of the basin, in degraded pasture areas
around the springs and stream banks. The development of these erosive
processes (Fig. 7c) in the Permanent Preservation Areas is indicative of
the negative impact of the conversion of riparian vegetation to pasture,
mainly in the drainage headwaters. Other factors such as convex hills
with slopes <20% associated with soils with high erodibility (Acrisols or
Gleysols) contributed to the high rates of soil erosion in this region.
3.7. Future soil loss scenarios
In 2100, the crop agriculture and plowed land classes (Table 7) showed
average losses of 1.86 and 10.43 Mg ha−1 year−1, respectively. Regarding
2016, the crop agriculture class showed a 5.78% growth in the average ero-
sion rate. On the other hand, plowed land had a reduction of approximately
4.22% in the average annual erosion rate. Recently, Cunha et al. (2021)
showed that crop agriculture and plowed land areas can increase by up to
49% between 2033 and 2100. Therefore, the result of this study reveals
the necessity from the decision-makers concerning the expansion of agricul-
tural activity to ensure soil and water conservation and, consequently, the
maintenance of the economic sector in the region.
The results show that the conservation and preservation of the RPB's
ecosystems are essential for the water resources, fauna, flora, maintenance
of local ecotourism activities and, consequently, the economic viability of
the municipalities of Bonito and Jardim. Therefore, cooperation between
government sectors and social initiative areas is crucial to create integrated
planning and management actions aimed at soil and water conservation in

Table 6
Average values of soil losses and sediment exports by LUC classes for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016.
LUC classes 1986 1999 2007 2016

ALUC (%) MSL MSE ALUC (%) MSL MSE ALUC (%) MSL MSE ALUC (%) MSL MSE

Pasture 40.09 1.06 0.06 43.58 0.90 0.04 50.19 0.46 0.02 40.39 0.46 0.02
Crop agriculture 3.59 3.36 0.21 2.10 2.29 0.14 3.58 1.33 0.08 0.56 1.73 0.10
Plowed land 4.28 27.19 2.46 3.80 20.01 1.76 3.27 10.62 0.92 9.87 10.89 1.08
Banhado 15.58 0.23 0.01 13.70 0.23 0.01 10.02 0.22 0.01 9.63 0.25 0.01
Riparian forest 9.99 1.40 0.07 6.56 0.82 0.02 8.33 0.76 0.01 8.54 0.76 0.01
Cerrado 6.33 1.45 0.06 6.57 1.15 0.05 5.94 0.93 0.04 5.72 1.01 0.04
Seasonal semideciduous forest 8.55 2.21 0.07 8.30 2.33 0.06 8.02 2.30 0.06 8.57 2.35 0.07
Wet grasslands 9.47 1.46 0.06 12.57 1.08 0.06 9.32 1.01 0.05 14.96 0.95 0.04
Barren land 1.96 75.18 9.27 2.61 55.30 5.06 1.09 53.58 4.67 1.46 48.01 3.90

ALUC is the LUC class area; MSL is the mean soil loss; MSE is the average of the exported sediment.

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E.R. Cunha et al. Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811

Table 7
Soil loss by LUC classes for 2050 and 2100 and relative change in 2100 compared to 2016.
LUC classes Soil loss by LUC

2050 2100 Relative change

2016–2100

Area (%) Mean SD Area (%) Mean SD Area (%) Mean

Pasture 37.57 0.45 3.52 36.59 0.44 3.27 0.44 −9.40 −4.35
Crop agriculture 1.05 1.44 2.77 1.22 1.83 5.50 1.83 117.49 5.78
Plowed land 13.16 10.55 16.41 14.29 10.43 15.65 10.43 44.71 −4.22
Banhado 5.82 0.26 1.31 3.79 0.26 1.16 0.26 −60.65 4.00
Riparian forest 10.31 0.66 4.05 10.82 0.64 3.51 0.64 26.67 −15.79
Cerrado 5.00 1.04 4.35 4.79 0.96 3.85 0.96 −16.19 −4.95
Seasonal semideciduous forest 9.29 2.14 4.95 10.44 2.01 4.80 2.01 21.83 −14.47
Wet grasslands 16.23 0.86 4.01 16.36 0.84 3.60 0.84 9.39 −11.58
Barren land 1.24 47.26 65.77 1.22 46.64 64.64 46.64 −16.70 −2.85

this planning unit. The development of guidelines to control the advance of
agriculture and the preservation of forest areas is the way to balance envi-
ronmental conservation and regional economic development.
4. Discussion
4.1. RUSLE factors
The R factor variation over the RPB revealed that the average annual
rainfall exhibits erratic variation in the study area. Although the magnitude
of the R factor is lower in the northeastern portion, the extent of erosion is
very severe in those regions. The high precipitation values result from oro-
graphic effects in the Serra da Bodoquena, where the elevation is higher
than 450 m (Brazil, 1982). According to Zavattini (2009), these precipita-
tion values are caused by the combination of dynamic factors of lower at-
mosphere added to geomorphological factors combined with the intense
seasonal and annual participation of the continental tropical air mass. Phys-
ical soil structure is often measured by the stability of soil aggregates, in
which the structure is one of the main factors influencing the edaphic soil
conditions, such as fertility, aeration, infiltration and water retention, as
well as reducing the susceptibility to erosion (Six et al., 2000; Zhao et al.,
2017). Soil stability is influenced by the management practices adopted,
such as intense soil overturning and accumulation of residual crop cover;
however, the practices are not entirely responsible for the disruption or
structuring of the soil (Zhao et al., 2017).
It is worth highlighting that factors such as clay content and TOC, con-
sequently the levels of soil organic matter (SOM), are fundamental to in-
crease stability and decrease soil erosion ratio (Tisdall and Oades, 1982;
Six et al., 2004). The high values of the stability indices can be related to
the presence of iron oxides. Iron and aluminium oxides associated with ka-
olinitic clays act as the main cementing agents in tropical soils, providing
high stability to soil aggregates (Oades, 1989; Zhao et al., 2017). Firstly,
micro-aggregates (<0.25 mm) are formed by the interaction between or-
ganic molecules, polyvalent cations (Ca3, Mg2+ and Al3+) and mineral par-
ticles of the clay fraction, mainly kaolinite and Fe oxides, in oxidic soils such
as ferralsols and nitisols (Edwards and Bremner, 1967; Stoops et al., 2018).
Subsequently, meso-aggregates and macro-aggregates (>0.25 mm) are
formed by the mechanical union of micro-aggregates during the process
of root growth, hyphae of rhizospheric fungi and movement of soil fauna,
providing greater stability and less susceptibility to erosive processes, as
verified in the results of the K factor for nitisols and ferralsols (Tisdall and
Oades, 1982; Six et al., 2004).
In addition to the high clay content, the SOM content was another crit-
ical property in the aggregation and structuring of the Rendzina Cherno-
zems in the RPB. SOM contributed to the formation of stable aggregates
with a higher percentage of macro-aggregates and the GWD and WAD indi-
ces greater than 2 mm (Six et al., 2004). Red Nitisols and Ferralsols, under
pasture use, also showed positive results in the SOM relationship and aggre-
gate stability. Well-managed grasses and crops that adopt conservationist
practices tend to have a greater contribution to the formation and stabiliza-
tion processes of aggregates, reducing the deformation and degradation of
structures, in addition to increasing the accumulation of carbon in tropical
soils, and may even exceed carbon levels of areas of natural vegetation due
to the high density of roots and the release of organic exudates to the soil,
which stimulate microbial activity and soil fauna (Gelaw et al., 2015;
Salton et al., 2014). However, it is worth noting that the more conservation-
ist systems do not replace the dynamics of storage and carbon emission of
native vegetation. Among the soils with intermediate values of erodibility,
the Haplic Gleysols (0.0388 Mg h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1) located in the central-
west region (Fig. 5c), more precisely, on the banks of the Rio da Prata, can
be highlighted. These soils are characterized by the clayey texture and high
organic matter content in the surface horizon resulting from limestone de-
posited from the Xaraiés Formation (Brazil, 1982).
The study revealed that in the RPB, native forest vegetation (riparian
forest, cerrado, seasonal semideciduous forest) plays an essential role in
soil protection because they act as a natural barrier against the direct im-
pacts of raindrops on the soil, reducing the runoff velocity, increasing infil-
tration capacity, and retaining water in the soil. The P factor is associated
with agricultural conservation practices that should be used to reduce soil
losses. This factor acts in increasing the surface roughness, reducing runoff,
and increasing water infiltration into the soil (Yang et al., 2018). In the
RPB, these practices are characterized by the presence of agricultural ter-
races located in some pasture and crop agriculture areas in the central por-
tion of the basin.
4.2. Current and future soil loss
As can be noted, the most significant soil losses in this period occurred
in regions with a predominance of areas occupied by plowed land, in the
northwest portion of the basin where the soil remained without vegetation
cover for an extended period in the year and in the seasonal semideciduous
forest that is influenced by mountainous relief (high LS factor). In addition,
the highest degrees of erosion also occurred in the southeastern portion of
the basin, where the relief is mainly made up of hills with a predominance
of LUC pasture and barren land.
The results show a predominance of soil loss <5 Mg ha−1 year−1 due to
the LS, K, and C factors. The LS factor is influenced by the relief, which is
dominated by smooth wavy shapes with an average slope of 4.04%. Deep
and well-developed soils (Red Latosols, Chernozems, Nitisols) occur in ap-
proximately 58% of the basin with a low tendency to develop erosive pro-
cesses. We observed that these losses occurred in banhado, riparian forest,
cerrado and wet grasslands classes, i.e., in areas where the vegetation
cover consists of native vegetation. These coverings provide greater resis-
tance to runoff, reducing soil erosion rates by water. These results corrobo-
rate those presented by Colman et al. (2019), Cunha et al. (2017), J.A.
Oliveira et al. (2015), and P.T.S. Oliveira et al. (2015) in basins within
the Cerrado biome, where the lowest soil losses were also obtained in
areas of native vegetation.

12
E.R. Cunha et al.
4.3. Sediment exports by LUC classes
The investigation revealed that the results obtained in this study corrob-
orate with Newson (1980), who pointed out that surface drainage systems
can cause considerable erosion at the edges of the drains, especially those
built in the open where high sediment losses are relatively common
(Holden et al., 2004). Gramlich et al. (2018) carried out a meta-analysis
of published data on the effects of artificial drains and emphasized that
this drainage system causes several impacts on ecosystems, such as
(i) alteration of the water balance, (ii) imbalance in nutrient cycling, (iii) re-
duction in the transport of plant protection products, and (iv) threat to hab-
itats of several animal and plant species. The lack of investigative studies on
soil losses in humid areas drained by artificial canals has hindered more in-
depth discussion on the topic. In addition, the lack of an MDE with a better
spatial resolution (Pijl et al., 2020) and the non-calibration of the RUSLE
model to estimate erosion rates for areas of flat relief are also limiting fac-
tors. According to Nacinovic et al. (2014), this increased soil resistance to
erosion under pasture is due to the fasciculate roots, which promote a
more significant soil aggregation.
Another survey conducted in the Qiantang River basin found average
values below 1.94 Mg ha−1 year−1 for pastures. The physical-chemical at-
tributes of the soils and the occurrence of well-managed pastures in most of
the study area (except for the southeastern region) provided the low value
of soil loss and sediment export. Well-managed pastures promote high
ground cover, favor the stabilization of the structure and the formation of
larger and more stable aggregates, increase the infiltration of water in the
soil and, consequently, reduce soil loss through the erosion process
(Panachuki et al., 2006; De Almeida et al., 2018).
Recently, Cunha et al. (2021) identified that from 1986 to 2016, the de-
crease in native vegetation areas in the RPB occurred mainly due to the con-
version to pasture, between 1986 and 2007, with the replacement of
21.19 km2 of the riparian forest by cultivated pasture. The results show
the effectiveness of riparian forests in protecting water resources. Accord-
ing to Liu et al. (2008), this protection is directly influenced by the width
of the vegetative strip. In addition, the physiographic characteristics of
the basin (slope, position in the landscape, and size of the water body)
also act as influencing agents of the functionality of the riparian forest
(Guidotti et al., 2020; Lee et al., 2004). Rodrigues et al. (2018) pointed
out that agricultural areas intensively used can deteriorate water quality
in tropical basins. Taniwaki et al. (2017) found that water quality presents
better conditions (lower nitrate concentrations and temperature) in springs
where native vegetation is preserved.
Thus, some economically viable measures can be applied to control ero-
sion processes in these areas of degraded pasture (Crouzeilles et al., 2017;
Cunha et al., 2017; Falcão et al., 2020) and avoid water quality degradation
in the RPB, such as (i) reforestation of the banks and springs of the tribu-
taries with native tree species, (ii) fallow and isolation of these areas to
allow the natural regeneration of vegetation, and (iii) prevent the advance
of pastures and annual crops in the areas adjacent to the springs and banks
of the streams.
4.4. Sediment deposition and turbidity of the waters
The study revealed that the west portion of basin showed the higher
values of soil loss and consequently are more vulnerable to erosion. As no
government authority of the RPB is actively involved in the measurement
of soil erosion caused due to agricultural activity, it is quite difficult to val-
idate the RUSLE simulated soil erosion estimates with the actual soil ero-
sion values. However, the input parameters of the RUSLE are well
determined using remote sensing products and Geographical Information
Systems techniques, as described in the methodology section of this
study. Furthermore, a previous study by Cunha et al. (2021) successfully
quantified LUC dynamics and soil erosion in the same basin using the
RUSLE model.
A study such as the one performed by Alatorre et al. (2012) reported an
increase of 84% in the SDR when the areas in the Arnas River basin, a
13
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
central region of the Spanish Pyrenees, previously covered by forest, were
occupied by annual crops. In another study, Zhou et al. (2019) found that
the growth of agricultural land increased the export of sediments in the
Qiantang River basin in China. Hamel et al. (2017) observed that the SDR
values have a strong correlation with erosivity, which can be explained
by the role of erosivity in the connectivity of river basins, and consequently,
a greater sediment delivery. As in the present study, Vigiak et al. (2016)
also found empirical evidence of this relationship in the Latrobe River
basin, Australia. Based on these facts, it can be stated that the water erosion
that occurred in the cultivation area influenced the quality of the waters of
the Rio da Prata and caused a direct impact on the physical, chemical, and bi-
ological degradation of the soil under cultivation, decreasing its productive
capacity (Burnette and Agouridis, 2014). Considering these facts, we believe
the developed RUSLE-based soil erosion has captured the effect of extensive
agricultural activities on soil erosion dynamics of the RPB and can be adopted
by policymakers for decision-making with the utmost reliability.
The results of increased soil loss led to water turbidity events, which
bring environmental problems to the waters of the Rio da Prata. At the
end of 2018, the turbidity of the waters of the Rio da Prata was highlighted
in the media throughout Brazil (G1, 2018; Campo Grande News, 2018).
This episode was due to the occurrence of rainfall on 17 November 2018
in the region and caused an intense runoff in a cultivated area (in an initial
stage) with soybeans [Glycine max. (L) Merryl] that reached the main chan-
nel of Rio da Prata (Fig. 4). Cunha et al. (2020) found that since the 1980s,
the area that gave rise to the torrent responsible for carrying sediments to
the Rio da Prata was covered by pasture (Cunha et al., 2020) with the pres-
ence of terraces (identified since 2002). However, after analyzing Landsat
8/OLI satellite images for the region, it was found that in August 2017, a
transition from this pasture area to agriculture began without conservation-
ist practices. It was also observed from the high-resolution images available
on Google Earth (Fig. 6) that the agricultural area where the erosion oc-
curred is located at approximately 2 km from the main channel of the Rio
da Prata, and that stretch of the river where the deposition of sediments oc-
curred presents a strip of riparian vegetation that varies from 350 to
1000 m. Thus, it can be stated that the riparian vegetation, although pre-
served, did not promote the watercourse's protection. Therefore, it is essen-
tial to adopt good agricultural practices associated with soil and water
conservation practices.
After this episode, the Secretariat for the Environment, Economic Devel-
opment, Production and Family Agriculture (SEMAGRO) created Decree
No. 15,197 (March 21, 2019), which aims at the need for the adoption of
soil and water conservation practices by rural producers to carry out
works of mechanization of soils (e.g., plowing, harrowing, and subsoiling)
with a view to renew or recover pastures and to implement permanent or
temporary crops and other soil movement activities. Although the govern-
ment of Mato Grosso do Sul State has adopted some effective measures
for soil and water conservation in the region, it is essential to create agricul-
tural extension activities to teach farmers the importance of maintaining
these structures in controlling soil erosion in these agricultural areas.
For measures to preserve the water quality of the Rio da Prata, it is es-
sential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural produc-
tion areas of the basin, especially where the ramps are extensive or the
slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity and control the move-
ment of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals (Chen et al.,
2017). Li et al. (2020) pointed out that concentrated flow is the main factor
in soil erosion on agricultural land, especially on steep cultivated lands with
a high gradient. To minimize the damage caused by water erosion, it is im-
portant to adopt conservationist soil management systems that can contrib-
ute to the sustainability of agricultural production, such as the no-tillage
system with crop rotation, livestock farming integration, forest livestock
farming, forest consortium of annual crops with pastures, and maintenance
of rural roads. When implementing these management systems, priority
must be given to the adoption of conservationist practices that promote ad-
equate soil coverage and segmentation of the land ramp length to assist in
the control of soil and water losses (Camera et al., 2018; Nunes et al.,
2018; Rutebuka et al., 2019).
E.R. Cunha et al.
5. Conclusions
The study analyzed changes in soil losses, sediment yield, and impacts
on water turbidity using the InVEST and the CA-Markov hybrid models to
simulate future soil losses (2050–2100) for the RPB, one of the best ecotour-
ism destinations, located in a humid climate region in the Cerrado/Atlantic
Forest ecotone of Brazil. The results showed that there had been a decline in
soil losses and sediment exports over the past 30 years (1986–2016). Total
soil loss was reduced from 10.20 million tons in 1986 to 4 million tons in
2016. As a result, total sediment exports decreased significantly by
69.86%, from 1 million tons to 321 thousand tons. The reduction in the
total sediment export was mainly caused by the transition from the higher
SDR values to areas of flat relief, associated with soils with low erodibility
index, in addition to the occurrence of pastures with good vegetative
cover, and the adoption of terraces (identified since 2002) in large part of
these pastures and agricultural lands minimized soil losses and conse-
quently decreased the amount of sediment exports to the Rio da Prata.
The banhado showed the lowest value of soil loss and sediment export.
However, the presence of artificial drainage canals favors the carrying of
sediments to the main channel of the Rio da Prata. As a result, the river wa-
ters may become turbid during the rainiest months, temporarily
compromising ecotourism activities.
Between 2016 and 2100, the crop agriculture class grew only 5.78% in
the average erosion rate. On the other hand, plowed land had a significant
reduction of approximately 4.22% in the average annual erosion rate. How-
ever, there is a need for greater attention from the environmental inspec-
tion bodies operating in the region due to the growing trend in these
areas until 2100. Factors that influenced the turbidity of the Rio da Prata
in 2018 were identified, namely: (i) high CI values in the area where sedi-
ment was carried, mainly determined by the long ramp length, (ii) the con-
version from pasture to agriculture affected the SDR, contributing to greater
spatial connectivity with the CI, a relationship characterized by low vegeta-
tion cover in the cultivation area, since the soybean crop was in the initial
stage, (iii) absence of soil and water conservation practices, and (iv) rain in-
tensity, as erosivity has a strong correlation with the rate of sediment deliv-
ery in watercourses. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved,
was not able to protect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt
the best management practices in the agricultural production areas of the
basin, especially where the ramps are extensive or the slope is greater
than 2%, to reduce the of runoff velocity and control the movement of sed-
iments on the surface towards the drainage canals.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Elias Rodrigues da Cunha: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data
curation, Writing – original draft. Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos: Con-
ceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Visualization, Writing – review
& editing. Richarde Marques da Silva: Supervision, Writing – review &
editing. Elói Panachuki: Writing – review & editing. Paulo Tarso Sanches
de Oliveira: Writing – review & editing. Naelmo de Souza Oliveira: Writ-
ing – review & editing. Karina dos Santos Falcão: Writing – review &
editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial inter-
ests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the
work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Federal University of Mato Grosso do
Sul-UFMS; to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for the availabil-
ity of the Landsat images; to the Ministério do Meio Ambiente (Ministry of
the Environment-MMA) for the availability of rapideye images; to the
Instituto Homem Pantaneiro (Pantanal Man Institute; IPH) for the aerial
14
Science of the Total Environment 818 (2022) 151811
photos; to Luciano Candisani (National Geographic photographer),
Cristiano Rodrigues, Bruna Andrade and resort Recanto Ecológico do Rio
da Prata for the photos; to the geography PhD student Leandro Félix for
the help in modeling; to Mineração Calcário Bodoquena Ltda. For assis-
tance, including the work of Edevaldo Herculano Cardoso and Heloneide
Rodrigues; to Marlon Dagher Arce, Helivélton Rodrigues for the fieldwork
collaboration; This study was financed in part by the Ministry of Science,
Technology, and Innovation – MCTI (441289/2017-7), the National Coun-
cil for Scientific and Technological Development, Brazil – CNPq (304213/
2017-9, 304540/2017-0, 309752/2020-5) and the Coordenação de
Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – CAPES – Fund Code 001.
Data availability statement
The input data are available at doi:10.17632/skfg3w7wdm.1.
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