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TA BLE PA RT I
Our panelists size up the world following a punishing year for investors. Plus, nine stock picks.
C O NT EN TS 01.16.23 VOL.CIII NO.3
P. 16 P. 30 P. 36
could mean big changes for to explore that part of the yield
63142
Our panelists size up the world following a punishing year for investors. Plus, nine stock picks.
niche, even in a recession. Cover photograph by technology giants by year end. curve again, despite the risks. Watch our weekly show Saturday
Mackenzie Stroh
By JACOB SONENSHINE By ERIC J. SAVITZ By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS or Sunday at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m.
ET. This week, see an interview
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P. 62 Inc. All Rights Reserved. P. 34 P. 35 with Roundtable member Abby
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Russia Is Holding Up Funds: Where to Find Economy: Inflation
ETFs combine the diversification of a mutual fund and the tracking of an index with transparency and liquidity.
PG
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Costco Wholesale COST 8.73%
Mondelez Int'l MDLZ 4.59%
Philip Morris Int'l PM 4.52%
Walmart WMT 4.45%
Altria MO 4.13%
*Components and weightings as
of 12/31/22. Please see website for Colgate-Palmolive CL 3.32%
daily updates. Holdings subject
Estee Lauder A EL 2.89%
to change.
Aninvestorshouldconsiderinvestmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpensescarefullybeforeinvesting.Toobtainaprospectus,whichcontainsthisandotherinformation,call1-866-SECTOR-ETFor
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4 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
I N D EX
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SENIOR WRITERS Bill Alpert, Megan Cassella, Lauren Foster, Nicholas Jasinski, Tae Kim, Joe Light,
T Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing . . . . . . 11
E Endava . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Elizabeth O’Brien, Al Root, Avi Salzman, Lawrence C. Strauss Telefonica Brasil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Exact Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 REPORTERS Rosalind Adams, Jacob Adelman, Janet H. Cho, Adam Clark, Emily Dattilo, Jack Denton, Tempur Sealy International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Expedia Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Catherine Dunn, Carleton English, Sabrina Escobar, Callum Keown, Evie Liu, Shaina Mishkin, Josh Nathan-Kazis,
Tenet Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Exxon Mobil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,45 Tesla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,43
Angela Palumbo, Teresa Rivas, Connor Smith, Jacob Sonenshine, Brian Swint, Karishma Vanjani Thermo Fisher Scientific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
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F Fastenal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 T-Mobile US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Fifth Third Bancorp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 COPY DESK Michael J. Burlingham, Richard Rescigno, Robert Teitelman Truist Financial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
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6 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 7
I
The repercussions could also be mon Tadesse. Less deficit spending
t’s always fun until the bill the peak of inflation is now in the more severe, particularly if the U.S. is would make it easier for the Fed to do
comes due—and the bill al- rearview mirror,” writes Jefferies econ- forced to miss payments on its debt or its job. Without it, it will fall into a cycle
ways comes due. In fact, it’s omist Thomas Simons. halt spending, perhaps even on Social of overtightening and balance-sheet
coming due right about now. News like that—as well as very bear- Security. These would all count as reduction, followed by rate cuts and
On Friday, Treasury Secre- ish positioning heading into 2023— defaults and result in more credit-rat- more quantitative easing, which will
tary Janet Yellen warned Con- helped the stock market ignore Yellen’s ing downgrades—and more economic only spur more inflation and force the
gress that the U.S. would hit its announcement. Still, there’s a good pain. “The bottom line is that passing “vicious circle” to start again, he says:
debt ceiling this coming Thursday, ear- chance the debt ceiling, which cur- the X date could bring substantial “For markets, brute-force monetary
lier than many had expected. That rently sits around $31.4 trillion, be- economic pain,” Gapen writes. “It is tightening without concomitant fiscal
doesn’t mean the government will be By Ben Levisohn comes a bigger concern. In a strange not part of our baseline outlook at discipline that significantly slashes
forced to stop paying its bills then—Yel- quirk, Congress can approve all the present, but we think fiscal brink- budget deficits and debt financing may
len believes that the Treasury has spending it wants, but it also needs to manship has returned.” only provide a temporary reprieve, if
enough cash and other ways to raise approve the total amount of debt the That’s unfortunate. The national any at all.”
money to last it until early June—but it U.S. can hold. That was once consid- debt is a real problem, one that de- The national debt also makes it
does mean that an issue that was still ered a nonissue. The ceiling would be serves serious consideration, not the more difficult for the Fed to do its job.
purely theoretical has become far more reached, Congress would raise it, and gamesmanship of a debt-ceiling stand- Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist
pressing as the X date approaches. everyone would go on their merry way. off. President Joe Biden’s 2023 budget at Stifel, notes that higher yields would
You wouldn’t know it from the stock But that changed in 2011, when Repub- calls for a $1.2 trillion deficit, a shortfall make paying interest on the national
market’s reaction. The S&P 500 was licans, who had regained control of that is far smaller than 2020’s record debt untenable, forcing the Fed ulti-
down about 0.2% at the time of the mately to cap yields, similar to what it
announcement Friday and finished the did during and after World War II.
day up 0.4%. Maybe that makes sense. This yield-curve control would keep
The market does have a lot on its mind, the debt manageable, but it would be
after all, from economic data to earn- bad news for stocks because it would
ings to Federal Reserve speakers, all ultimately lead to higher inflation and
matters that seem far more pressing at lower valuations. Bannister expects the
the moment. S&P 500’s P/E ratio to be halved from
The battle against inflation is likely its 2021 peak by 2030, even as earnings
the most pressing—and the reason the per share double. That would leave the
S&P 500 finished up 2.7% this past S&P about even with its 2021 level at
week. The consumer price index fell to the end of the decade.
6.5% in December, from 7.1% in No- That, of course, says nothing about
vember, while core CPI dipped to 5.7% the current rally, which he thinks has
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
from 6%. Recession fears also ratch- further to run in what he calls a
eted down a notch on Friday, when the “rangebound secular bear market.”
University of Michigan Consumer Sen- Enjoy it while it lasts.
timent Survey came in much stronger
E
than expected. veryone loves a bargain, but
The two, of course, are linked. “De- when a bargain looks too
spite broad concerns that the economy good to be true, people shy
will fall into a recession in the coming away. Don’t do that with
quarters, consumer attitudes are im- “deep-value” stocks, which look like
proving, mostly because it looks like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress that the U.S. would hit its debt ceiling this coming week. real deals right now.
8 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Value, of course, is in the eye of the be- expensive stocks are still expensive—
A CUSTOM EVENT holder. Generally, it means cheap stocks. they’re in the mid-80s percentile of their
Some investors look for companies that historical range going back to 1983—and
trade at a discount to their perceived “in- shallow value has gotten expensive too, the
trinsic value,” even if they’re more expen- market’s cheapest stocks are trading in the
sive than the market. Others use “relative sixth percentile, relative to history. “Deep
value”—comparing a stock to other value is very cheap,” Inker says.
stocks—to make their calls, while still oth- Many of the market’s cheapest stocks,
THE CRYPTO INVESTOR SERIES ers look solely at valuation metrics, such particularly those that got hit hard in 2022,
as price/earnings, price/sales, and price/ have already started running this year.
Crypto Investing: There’s a book ratios to make their picks. The latter
are known as deep-value investors.
While value had a great year in 2022,
Capital One Financial (COF), which
trades at just 6.4 times 12-month forward
earnings, has rallied 8.7% in 2023, while
Spring After Every Winter deep value did not. The S&P 500 Value
index declined just 5.2% last year, far bet-
General Motors (GM), which changes
hands at 6.5 times, has climbed 14%, and
ter than the S&P 500’s 18% drop. The In- United Airlines Holdings (UAL), which
vesco S&P 500 Pure Value exchange- trades at 6.7 times, has surged 36%.
Thursday, February 16 traded fund (ticker: RPV), whose portfolio But just because a stock is cheap doesn’t
has no growth stocks, did even better, de- mean it’s worth owning. A low multiple
3:00 - 3:50 p.m. ET clining a mere 1.3%. The Roundhill Ac- can signal something relatively benign—
quirers Deep Value ETF (DEEP), though the market’s belief that a company’s earn-
not a perfect comparison because of its ings have peaked, for instance—but it can
Join the fourth and final installment small- and mid-cap bent, dropped 18%. also be a sign that a company is in finan-
Deep value’s 2022 underperformance— cial distress, in a business that is being
of our webinar series co-hosted by in a year when value stocks outpaced the disrupted, or has too much debt. That ex-
Grayscale and Barron’s Group. We’ll S&P 500—was an anomaly. In 2000, for plains why so many deep-value investors
instance, the S&P 500 Value index out- do deep dives into the numbers they use,
discuss why investors remain bullish performed the S&P 500 by 15 percentage particularly earnings, and look for signs
points, and deep value outpaced “shal- that a company isn’t a value trap. “You
on the long-term viability of the digital low” value—the next 150 cheapest stocks have to be careful when running deep-
asset ecosystem. after deep value in the S&P 500—by value screens,” says Chris Senyek, chief
nearly 18 percentage points, according to investment strategist at Wolfe Research.
GMO, an investment firm co-founded by And that’s where it gets complicated.
investor Jeremy Grantham. GMO modi- Senyek looks for companies that have an
fies some of the accounting metrics to get earnings yield—the inverse of a price/earn-
what it sees as a more accurate read on ings ratio—that’s double the interest rate on
valuation. a AAA-rated bond, a dividend yield that’s
Deep value outperformed shallow value two-thirds that of the bond, and a total
by 4.7 points or more in 1993, 1983, 1988, debt/tangible book value ratio that’s less
and 2016, the next best years for value per- than 1. (He also excludes financials.) “We
formance. Deep, however, trailed shallow by like [this screen] because they’re cheap, not
five points in 2022. “It’s weird,” says Ben levered, and have some dividend yield, and
Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO. that’s kind of nice,” he says.
“We would have expected it to win by a Senyek’s value screen includes energy
great deal.” Inker has a theory about what’s companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM),
behind the disappointing showing. In 2000, Chevron (CVX), and Pioneer Natural
he says, investors fell out of love with Resources (PXD), auto makers like Ford
growth stocks and in love with value, and Motor (F) and General Motors, and real
they put their dollars to work in a big way estate companies like Spirit Realty Capi-
Register Now by buying the market’s cheapest shares. tal (SRC), Kite Realty Group Trust
Not so in 2022. Investors might have (KRG), and Kilroy Realty (KRC). It also
fallen out of love with growth, particularly includes two picks that Barron’s made last
BARRONS.COM/GRAYSCALESERIES those stocks that benefited most from the year, picks that didn’t work out all that
Fear of Missing Out, but they didn’t be- well: Standard Motor Products (SMP)
come enraptured with anything else. and Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK).
“There was revulsion for everything Both dropped around 26%. That, unfortu-
FOMO, but with the exception of energy nately, is the risk that comes with being a
stocks, nothing really got the love,” Inker value investor.
says. Sometimes, it just takes a while for the
This is a custom event created by Barron’s Custom Studio, a commercial department Deep value’s underperformance, how- market to see the value that we do. B
at Barron’s. The Barron’s newsroom was not involved in the production of this event. ever, may be ready to turn into outperfor-
mance. Inker notes that while the most email: ben.levisohn@barrons.com
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 9
ST R E E T W I S E
As Peltz puts it, Disney has spent $162 billion since
2018 on deals, content, and capital investments,
and the result is a halving of earnings per share.
“G
port asks. Debt is up, the dividend is ily trip to Disney World in August,
reat Schweppes three yearsSti later for $1.5 gone, and the stock has stunk. As costs and hassles were way up, and fun
news: billion. In 2005, he co-founded Trian Peltz puts it, Disney has spent $162 seemed down, compared with trips
Nelson Partners to buy stakes in bigger com- billion since 2018 on deals, content, before the pandemic. But part of that
Peltz panies, including in nongastronomical and capital investments, and the result judgment is fraught with bias. Saturday
made a industries. From 2016 to last year, he is a halving of earnings per share. Night Live producer Lorne Michaels
slide bought into Procter & Gamble (PG), Only most of this is fair. Disney’s has said that when people tell him the
deck muscled his way onto the board, col- pricey push into streaming was forced show peaked in this or that decade,
about me,” said no CEO ever. But laborated on streamlining, parted on by the rise of Netflix (NFLX) and re- what they’re really saying is that’s
maybe Walt Disney’s Bob Iger had friendly terms, and sold at a profit. sulting declines in cable television sub- when they were young. I don’t want to
mixed feelings about the 35-pager that By Jack Hough One Peltz approach is to make a scriptions. When Netflix’s stock mar- be one of those cranks who mistakes
dropped this past week. slide deck, show it to management, ask ket value overtook Disney’s, it was his kids growing older for the parks
One one hand, it says that he for a board seat, and, based on the re- clear investors valued new streaming going downhill, and pooh-poohs the
squandered billions on the 2019 Fox sponse, decide whether to make his customers over cash flows. So Disney experience for young families.
deal; that he botched succession plan- slides public. The Disney ones say responded, and investors cheered. Chapek said last year that customer
ning; that current streaming costs are Trian spoke with Chapek in November Then rates rose, and investor prefer- satisfaction scores were still riding
bloated; that Disney parks are squeez- and asked for a seat. Chapek was ence flipped. By then, more companies high. Since Iger’s return, Disney has
ing visitors and workers; and that ousted later that month and Trian was had piled into streaming, leading to gradually reversed some top annoy-
Iger’s past pay was “over the top.” turned down, in its telling, “after one cut-rate pricing and a content war. ances—restoring free parking for Dis-
On the other hand, Peltz wants Iger short call with management” and Now companies are raising prices, ney World hotel guests, for example.
to stay; some of the above stuff can be “without hearing us out.” adding commercials, or both, while The problem with Disney stock is
pinned on departed CEO Bob Chapek; The rest of the deck, titled “Restor- cutting production budgets, especially that although its price has been cut in
activist interest provides cover for cost ing the Magic,” is mostly history, with since box-office sales haven’t recovered half, it doesn’t seem egregiously
cuts; and the 3.6% lift Peltz gave Dis- some important current grievances, from the pandemic. Peltz writes that cheap. Free cash flow is pegged at a
ney stock on Thursday accrues to but not much by way of a plan. Disney took a “ready, fire, aim” ap- depressed $4.6 billion this fiscal year
Iger’s record. Among Iger’s many Disney achieve- proach to streaming, taking it from a ending September. The market value
Unfortunately, Peltz PowerPoint ments were three acquisitions—Marvel niche to the center of content distribu- is close to 40 times that figure. Con-
roasts don’t work cumulatively—a cou- in 2009 for $4 billion, Pixar in 2006 tion too quickly. Maybe so, but that’s sensus estimates have free cash flow
ple of dozen more won’t get Disney for $7.4 billion, and Lucasfilm in 2012 what investors insisted they wanted. rebounding to $10.1 billion by the fis-
(ticker: DIS) stock back from its recent for $4.1 billion—that spawned a box Peltz points out that Netflix, which cal year ending September 2025,
$100 to its March 2021 high of $203. which works to a multiple of 18. But
That could require a delicate, industry- the S&P 500 trades at 18 times nearer
wide shift in spending and pricing. For free cash flow—next year’s consensus.
media stocks to start working again, BARRONS.COM/PODCASTS Ultimately, whether Peltz gets his
streaming probably has to become a board seat or not, Disney appears
worse deal for customers.
Peltz, for those unfamiliar with him,
is the son of a lower Manhattan food
Barron’s Streetwise likely to rein in costs. But what it and
streaming rivals will need long term is
to figure out how to charge more for
distributor, which helps explain his In a weekly podcast by Barron’s, columnist Jack Hough looks less, without chasing off subscribers
turnaround taste: His deals include at the companies, people, and trends you should be watching. who’ve never had more entertainment
Wendy’s, Heinz, Danone, PepsiCo, and This is Wall Street like you’ve never heard before. Subscribe choices, or a simpler time switching
Domino’s Pizza. He snatched Snapple to Barron’s Streetwise on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, among them. No easy task. B
from Quaker Oats in 1997 for $300 or your favorite listening app.
million, and flipped it to Cadbury email: jack.hough@barrons.com
10 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
R E VIEW 34,302.61
Dow Industrials: + 672.00
485.75
Dow Global Index: + 16.05
3.51%
10-year Treasury Note: - 0.06
Bankruptcy 34 M
Barrels of diesel and heating oil
claiming, in an echo of the U.S. Capitol
insurrection, that the election had been
stolen and calling for a military coup.
Security forces cleared the buildings,
in reserve on the U.S. East President Lula promised to prosecute
What were shareholders thinking? Shares of retailer Bed Coast, ending fears of short- “financiers of these vandals,” and au-
Bath & Beyond zoomed 179%, to $3.49 this past week, ages this winter. thorities detained over 1,200 people,
despite the retailer warning of a possible bankruptcy. including senior security officers. Bol-
One explanation: Meme stock mania is back. Stocks
like AMC Entertainment and GameStop rose 31% and
24%, respectively, this past week. Investors may hope for
a repeat of Hertz Global Holdings, which saw its stock
1.6 M
Number of inbound containers
sonaro was in Florida, where he re-
jected responsibility for the attack.
McCarthy’s House
FAA Failure
A key Federal Aviation Administration
surge as it neared bankruptcy in May 2020, helping to to the U.S. in December, down Kevin McCarthy won the House speak- pilot notification system failed late on
put Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum on the map. Hertz was 1.2% from November and the ership on the 15th vote after six hold- Tuesday night, temporarily halting do-
a rare case of shareholders of a bankrupt company get- lowest since June 2020. outs voted “present.” To win the vote, mestic flights. The culprit appeared to be
ting rewarded, as cash problems spurred by pandemic McCarthy agreed to give away much of human error, not a cyberattack.
lockdowns gave way to surging demand in 2021.
S3 Partners managing director Ihor Dusaniwsky told
Barron’s that Bed Bath’s short interest was 52% of the float.
Institutional shareholders have fled, he noted, leaving
$165 B
Damage costs from extreme
the speaker’s powers to rank-and-file
Republicans. By the end of the week,
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
warned that the federal government
Annals of Deal Making
Trian’s Nelson Peltz launched a proxy
fight for a Walt Disney board seat...Ali-
individual ones. He hadn’t seen signs of a short squeeze, weather last year. would begin “extraordinary measures” baba founder Jack Ma ceded control of
when short sellers drive up a stock price as they exit. to avoid breaching the debt limit. Sepa- Ant Group to 10 individuals. Ma will
$63 B
P R EV IEW Wednesday The BLS releases the producer price index for Sign up for the Review &
December. Consensus estimate is for the PPI Preview daily newsletter at
to rise 6.8% and core PPI to increase 5.4%, a moderation from November. Barrons.com/reviewpreview
Thursday 1/19
Tuesday 1/17
Fastenal, Fifth Third Bancorp, Key-
Citizens Financial Group, Goldman Corp, M&T Bank, Netflix, Northern
Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, and Trust, Procter & Gamble, SVB Fi-
United Airlines Holdings report nancial Group, and Truist Financial
quarterly results. hold conference calls to discuss quar-
terly results.
Monster Beverage hosts a virtual
investor day. The Census Bureau reports residen-
tial construction statistics for Decem-
ber. Housing starts are expected at a
SAMSUNG TAKES NO. 1 Wednesday 1/18 seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35
million, 77,000 less than in Novem-
makers. Samsung received 6,248 patents, down 2% from a Dethroned rent economic conditions through Discover Financial (Q4)
J.B. Hunt (Q4)
3.65
2.47
3.64
2.28
year earlier. IBM won 4,398, off 49% from 2021. IBM noted Samsung won the 2022 patent race anecdotal evidence gathered by the 12 PNC Financial (Q4) 3.96 2.86
that its reduced number was by design, as it focused re- after IBM saw its numbers fall by 49%. regional Federal Reserve banks. More earnings on page 59.
search on key areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud com- Consensus Estimate
Patent Awards
puting, security, semiconductors, and quantum computing. The Census Bureau reports retail Day Consensus Est. Last Period
Following IBM are contract chip manufacturer Tai- Samsung IBM sales data for December. Economists W December PPI 0.00% 0.30%
December Retail Sales -0.80% -0.60%
wan Semiconductor Manufacturing, China’s network- forecast retail spending to decline December Capacity Utilization 79.6% 79.7%
10,000
ing infrastructure company Huawei Technologies, Japan’s 0.6% month over month, matching the
Illustration by Elias Stein
ics company LG Electronics. U.S. companies accounted 5,000 sales are seen dropping 0.4% com- Th December Housing Starts 1,350,000 1,427,000
F December Existing Home Sales 3,950,000 4,090,000
for 44% of patents issued, 142,703 in all, down from 46% pared to a 0.2% fall previously. Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a=Advanced;
in 2021. Japan ranked second, with 46,504, while China 0 f=Final; p=Preliminary; r=Revised Source: FactSet
was third, with 24,538. China’s total was up 19% from 2017 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 The National Association of Home For more information about coming economic reports
- and what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic
2021. — Eric J. Savitz Source: IF Claims Patent Services Builders releases its Housing Market Calendar at www.barrons.com
12 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Open Market Committee has a voice— landscape changes over time, that
if not always a vote—and anyone who strong consensus you have right now
THE
uses it publicly has the potential to will start to fray a little bit, because
move markets and change the finan- people begin to see the risks some-
cial weather. what differently.”
The central bank’s onslaught of Already, minutes from the Fed’s
communiqués has a purpose: Fed most recent meetings suggest that
speeches are meant to share its think- some participants are beginning to
BARRON’S
ing with the public, certainly, but also warn that the central bank may be
to shape market expectations and en- going too far, while others still see
courage economic actors to take steps plenty of room to run.
that will support its policy aims. Thursday provided a preview of
“In some ways, [Fed members] what such disagreement can look
view it as one of their most powerful like, when Philadelphia Fed President
policy tools—which is why they com- Patrick Harker kicked off the day
GUIDE
municate so often,” says Ed Yardeni, suggesting that the bank was open to
a former Fed official and investment slowing the pace of rate hikes. Hours
strategist who founded Yardeni later, St. Louis Fed President James
Research. Bullard swung in the opposite direc-
The current volume of public com- tion, saying he believed that the Fed
mentary is a relatively new phenome- should push to reach its peak rate
TO WHO’S
non, one that has grown as one chair “as soon as possible.”
after the next has worked to increase When differences of opinion sur-
transparency. Powell has taken a face, it’s usually the markets that bear
“more is more” approach to communi- the brunt, critics say. “Every time they
cations, and raised the bar in 2019 speak, the markets move on it, and
when he committed to holding a news they create gyrations during the day,”
WHO AT
conference after each of the Fed’s eight says Claudia Sahm, a former Fed offi-
annual policy meetings, twice as many cial and the founder of Sahm Consult-
as his recent predecessors held. ing. “That’s really disruptive. Finan-
The new flow of information came cial markets are in a fragile place.
just in time for the pandemic and the There’s a lot of uncertainty in the
perplexing, inflation-ridden recovery world. The Fed does not need to inject
that followed. Last year, after decades more uncertainty—but that’s what
THE FED
of relatively modest moves, the Fed they’re doing.”
began hiking interest rates at levels But as long as Fed officials continue
not seen since 1994, thrusting the cen- to speak their minds, knowing how to
tral bank into the spotlight and turn- make sense of their sometimes mixed
ing even average Americans into anx- messages is vital for investors trying
ious Fed watchers. to understand where monetary policy
Reading the bank’s tea leaves is is headed. The key, insiders say, is to
likely to get even trickier in the com- learn whose words carry the most
The central bank’s monetary policy-making committee has 19 members— ing months, as the bank approaches weight, and whose can be more read-
but some are more influential than others an inflection point, with officials ily discounted. That means under-
debating whether and when to pause, standing the intricacies of how the
or even reverse, its march toward bank operates, the histories and
higher rates. The path forward is expertise of various officials, and the
BY MEGAN CASSELLA both delicate and uncharted: There is relationships that carry influence
no agreed-upon road map for how to behind the scenes.
cool labor demand and inflation with- To assemble a guide to navigating
out driving up unemployment or trig- the bank’s public communications,
gering a recession. And given that Barron’s spoke to former Fed officials,
F
one former Fed official told Barron’s economists, and Wall Street analysts
or close watchers of conflicting—take. Given the Fed’s un- that the committee has sometimes who closely track the central bank.
the Federal Reserve, matched sway over the economy, it’s been described internally as unable We also reached out to the Fed,
trying to make sense of tempting to view it as a single-minded to “agree on the color of an orange,” which pointed us toward Powell’s
the flood of speeches, force. But in reality, the bank isn’t a that’s likely to mean policy disagree- long history of committing to open
interviews, and other monolith. Rather, it’s an organization ments, some of which will undoubt- communication.
remarks emerging where policy is shaped by a group of edly be aired in public. “I, frankly, think it’s our obligation
from the central bank 19 very human individuals, and it’s “We are going to have an emerg- to be as transparent and explain our-
in any given week can feel akin to a structured in a way that encourages ing debate around how far is far selves as clearly as possible because
game of Whac-A-Mole. You’ve just its power dynamics to shift from year enough,” says Ellen Meade, an econo- what we do affects all Americans,”
begun to digest one official’s commen- to year. Chairman Jerome Powell may mist who spent 25 years at the Fed Powell said in a 60 Minutes interview
tary when up pops another one to be first among equals, but each of before joining Duke University’s eco- in 2019. “And any American who
offer a different—and sometimes those 19 participants on the Federal nomics department in July. “As the wants to understand what we do
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 13
14 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
should be able to do so straight- for some members of the committee.” Bowman and Waller have a history information.
forwardly.” The third member of the troika is of holding more hawkish views, “He’s transparent about how he
John Williams, president of the New meaning they are generally in favor sees the environment,” says Kaleb
The Troika York Fed and vice chair of the FOMC, of tighter policy meant to help keep Nygaard, a former Chicago Fed ana-
No surprise: If you listen to only one which sets bank policy. Given that the inflation low. Waller in particular is lyst who studies central banking as
person at the Fed, make it Jerome New York Fed runs the trading desk, known for his strong voice and eco- a research fellow at the University of
Powell. First appointed chairman in its president has historically been a nomics background, and close Fed Pennsylvania. “You’ll get exactly from
2018, and expected to serve until May veteran of financial markets. watchers say they look to him for him where you think he’s going to go.”
2026, he’s not only the chief spokes- Williams doesn’t fit that mold, insight into what the committee’s
person for the policy-making commit- however, having trained as an econo- hawks are thinking. The Nonvoters
tee but also the one responsible for mist and advanced through roles at The 12 regional bank presidents Coming in last in Fed watchers’
creating agreement. the Fed and the White House. Per- take turns voting—with the exception power rankings: the seven nonvoting
His public speeches and post- haps for that reason, he appears to of Williams, who, as president of the regional bank presidents.
meeting news conferences are para- be somewhat less engaged in the New York Fed, always has a vote; the That’s not to say that the officials
mount in any ranking of Fed commu- nitty-gritty of crafting the bank’s pol- remaining 11 rotate through in one- in this category aren’t sometimes news-
nications, and are closely analyzed. icy approach than some of his prede- year stints. For 2023, the voting re- makers. St. Louis’ Bullard, for example,
Powell will at times share his per- cessors, say Fed veterans. gional bank presidents will be Austan is an outspoken outlier, whose gener-
sonal views—with a disclaimer— Together, Powell, Brainard, and Goolsbee of Chicago, Harker of Phila- ally hawkish views have been known
though he more often is looking to Williams are the dominant voices on delphia, Neel Kashkari of Minneapo- to shake markets. His comments in
communicate the consensus opinion. monetary policy and the Fed’s path lis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas. mid-November that the Fed could raise
“It’s important to know where the forward, both internally and exter- Goolsbee and Logan are new to the interest rates to as high as 7% caused a
center of the committee is, and obvi- nally. The three work closely on writ- bank presidency—Goolsbee stepped market dip, though he more recently
ously, Jay Powell is the very definition ing the committee’s postmeeting pol- into the role this month, and Logan in appeared to soften and suggest that the
of the center,” says Joseph Gagnon, a icy statement and collaborate to try to August—but both are familiar entities. median forecast—in the 5.1% range—
macroeconomist and senior fellow find and represent a consensus view. Goolsbee held a top economist role could be sufficient.
with the Peterson Institute for Inter- in the Obama White House and is San Francisco Fed President Mary
national Economics who spent more The Voters known as a strong communicator who Daly, on the other hand, has been
than two decades at the Fed. The playing field levels out somewhat is expected to have a prominent voice known to represent more of the dovish
Powell is a lawyer by training, and among the 16 remaining participants this year. Logan, for her part, has spent wing of the committee, and former Fed
his lack of a formal economics back- on the policy committee. decades at the Fed, most recently run- officials say she has a close working
ground is part of what some former The five additional board members ning the trading desk in New York. relationship with Powell that gives her
Fed officials say has fueled his close and 11 regional bank presidents par- Logan’s depth of experience in New influence internally. When she came
relationship with Lael Brainard, vice ticipate in internal policy discussions York means that she “will be the voice out forcefully in December to say that
chair of the Board of Governors and and frequently share with the public of the financial markets in the meet- the bank still had considerable work to
perhaps the next most influential their personal views about what they ing,” says Bill Nelson, a former Fed do on inflation, it sent a signal that the
voice. feel the Fed should or will do next. official who is now chief economist whole committee—even those who
A Harvard University–trained But only some of them will actually and executive vice president with the generally favored looser policy—were
Ph.D. economist, Brainard has tradi- vote each year on policy. Bank Policy Institute. “And that’s a on board with an aggressive stance.
tionally been on the more dovish side That makes the distinction between very important role.” Still, neither will have a vote on
of the committee, meaning that she voting and nonvoting participants the Harker tends to be quieter than this year’s path forward. That should
has often favored looser monetary clearest way to recognize whose opin- his peers, though former Fed officials lessen their influence over the markets
policy and placed a priority on maxi- ions carry more weight inside the described his views as slightly on in the coming months, particularly if
mizing employment. committee. And it means that the cast the hawkish side of center. Kashkari, their views seem out of line with the
In her role as vice chair, Brainard’s of characters in the spotlight changes meanwhile, is expected to have an rest of the committee.
public remarks are typically meant to each year, as regional bank presidents outsize voice on the committee. Overall, while the Fed will work
reinforce Powell’s message. Case in rotate through voting positions. Known as a compelling speaker, he to communicate its expectations and
point: After his remarkably direct “At the end of the day, they all have previously had been the bank’s most avoid jolting markets unnecessarily,
speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo., in late a voice around the table, but they notable dove. During his last voting the uncertain nature of the current
August emphasizing the Fed’s commit- don’t all count the same,” Sahm says. stint in 2017, for example, he dis- economy means that observers should
ment to reining in inflation no matter The seven members of the Board of sented against every rate increase. brace for less clear and specific mes-
how painful the consequences, Brain- Governors always vote. Besides Powell But Kashkari has since shifted saging in the year to come. In other
ard followed up a couple of weeks later and Brainard, that includes Govs. Mi- dramatically to advocate for a more words, sometimes even the Fed
to say the bank would keep policy chael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Lisa hawkish approach, arguing earlier doesn’t know in advance what it is
restrictive for “as long as it takes.” Cook, Philip Jefferson, and Christo- this month that the Fed should con- about to do.
But the two aren’t always in lock- pher Waller. tinue raising rates for “at least the “The line that we always used was,
step. At times, she can come off as Barr, as vice chair of supervision, next few meetings.” His forecast ‘The committee will communicate as
noticeably more dovish—as in an Oc- tends to focus on bank regulation and shows interest rates rising another full clearly as it can about its policy deci-
tober speech that appeared to lay the take a less prominent role on mone- percentage point, to 5.4%—higher sions and its outlook,’ ” says Bill Eng-
groundwork for the Fed to slow its tary policy. Cook and Jefferson, both than the current median projection. lish, a former Fed official who is now
pace of monetary-policy tightening. of whom President Joe Biden ap- That willingness to adjust his views a finance professor at Yale University.
“I always sit up and take note if pointed to the board in early 2022, in light of changes in the data could “There’s just a huge amount of uncer-
something like that happens,” says have so far stayed roughly in line with make him a central player over the tainty about where the economy’s go-
Meade, of Brainard’s softened tone consensus, though observers say they coming year, Fed watchers say, as the ing to be in a year’s time and, therefore,
between the two speeches. “You say to are likely to speak out more this year bank works to stay nimble and chart what appropriate policy will be in a
yourself, maybe there’s a shift going on as they settle into their positions. its path forward based on the latest year’s time.” B
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 15
S I Z I N G U P S M A LL- CA P S
A
Wipro (WIT), EPAM Systems recession, if one materializes,
(EPAM), and Globant (GLOB). En- would pose the biggest risk to
dava’s relatively small size allows it to Endava. Roughly half of its
work more closely with its customers, sales come from fintech cus-
while also being cheaper and more tomers, such as payment processors,
innovative, says William Blair analyst which could see a hit to sales and could
Maggie Nolan. Eventually, the company look to cut costs if consumer spending
wants 75,000 employees, Nolan notes, slows down. Some of that potential
which is in line with management’s weakness is reflected in the company’s
vision for long-term sales growth. sales guidance of just over $1 billion for
“We expect Endava to continue to fiscal year 2023, which ends in June.
capitalize on demand for emerging “There could be some medium
technologies, custom product develop- short-term headwinds from the
ment, and digital transformation ser- macro,” says Mark Thurston, Endava’s
vices,” she writes. chief financial officer. “We’ve reflected
Demand for Endava’s services has those in the guidance and are taking a
been increasing quickly. Its revenue reasonably conservative view on the
has grown at a 29% annual clip over outlook for the second half.”
the past three years, and analysts ex- Assuming a 28% annualized earn-
BY JACOB SONENSHINE in 2023. While the software slump is pect sales to compound annually at a ings growth rate, the stock’s valuation
S
worrisome, companies are always look- 28% pace to $1.44 billion over the next looks too low. It trades at 24 times 12
oftware is in a slump, but ing to get more efficient by cutting two years, according to FactSet. Earn- month forward earnings of $3.24,
people are in short supply. costs and replacing antiquated soft- ings should grow in line with sales, as down from 28.7 times at the end of
That’s the kind of environ- ware with newer technology. September. That means Endava is trad-
ment that could be good for And that’s where Endava, whose ing at a PEG, or price/earnings-to-
information-technology customers include Adobe (ADBE), Endava growth, ratio of just under one times.
consultant Endava. Rabobank, Worldpay Group, and Information-technology services That’s less than the aggregate PEG
With recession concerns Maersk, comes in. It has the engineers ratio of just over one times for the Rus-
Headquarters: DAVA / NYSE
rising, corporate spending on software and tech support to help companies London sell 2000 small-cap stock index.
and other tech has been decelerating. migrate to the cloud, build out IT infra- $150 Bergin has a $95 price target on the
Recent Price: $77.72
Companies like Salesforce (ticker: structure, and provide other services shares, suggesting 22% upside, and
CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are that are more easily and cheaply pro- 52-Wk Change: –42.2% 125 other analysts also see gains ahead. In
expected to grow 20% annually, down vided externally than in house. Against Market Value (bil): $4.4 February, Endava is expected to report
from more than 30% before the pan- that backdrop, the selloff in Endava 100 a fiscal second-quarter profit of 69
2024E Sales (bil): $1.3
Illustration by Ryan Peltier
demic. That has weighed on shares of stock looks like a buying opportunity. cents a share on sales of $249 million.
London-based Endava (DAVA), which “As we come out of a bubble burst, 2024E Net Income An earnings beat could be a catalyst to
(mil): $210 75
helps companies implement new soft- everyone throws everything out,” says drive the stock higher.
ware and integrate it with older sys- Scott Davies, chief investment officer at 2024E EPS: $3.49 “If they can make those numbers,
50
tems. Its stock has dropped 42% over fund manager CDAM. “That’s where 2024E P/E: 22.3 the multiple will expand again,” Katri
the past 12 months. we like Endava.” 2022 ’23 says. And even if they don’t, growth
Endava, though, is well positioned There’s a lot to like, starting with Note: fiscal year ends in June; E=estimate Source: Bloomberg; FactSet alone should push the stock higher. B
16 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
AFTER
THE
T
7% than to 2% or 3%. Fiscal policy is
still pretty loose, and the unemploy-
ment rate is around 3.5%. Looking
below the surface, Social Security pay-
ments, which go out to nearly 30% of
the adult population in the U.S., will
rise by close to 9% this year, as they
The optimist sees bubbles and thinks outlook. But even more rarely has the are indexed to inflation. That is bak-
champagne. The pessimist thinks Roundtable convened after a year in ing in additional inflation-push fac-
Alka-Seltzer. which inflation roared and interest tors. And, the Fed’s balance sheet is
So it goes with investors, too, in- rates soared, signaling regime change still large. It is shrinking, but slowly.
cluding the 10 on this year’s Barron’s among the world’s central banks and Second, many wage-growth num-
Roundtable. Some consider last year’s in financial markets. bers look to be coming down. But
steep losses in stocks and bonds a For all of the debate at our annual based on the Atlanta Fed’s Wage
necessary cleansing that set the stage gathering, held on Jan. 9 in New York, Growth Tracker, wages were up
for renewed rallies and lofty returns. the participants agree on a few funda- nearly 8% in November for workers
Others simply see it as the first leg mentals: The age of free money is over. switching jobs, and 5.5% for those
down in a protracted bear market. Valuation matters again in equity mar- staying in the same jobs. Overall, wage
Rarely in modern times has the kets, unlike in recent years, and fixed growth is more than 6%, inconsistent
group been so split in its investment income finally lives up to its name, with the dramatic decline in inflation
18 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
I came into last year pessimistic prices are in the mid-$70s today, but
about fixed income. This year, fixed averaged significantly more than that
income is positioned in a better way in 2022. Energy earnings are highly
than it has been for a very long time. correlated to oil. If oil prices stay where
they are, energy earnings—especially in
What is your economic forecast? the second and third quarters—will be
Desai: For the full year, I expect GDP down, year over year.
growth of 1%, maybe higher, although Financials will probably have posi-
growth could be negative by the tive earnings growth because of rising
fourth quarter. rates and an upturn in capital-markets
activity. Foreign exchange will go from
David, where do you stand? a headwind to a positive in the second
David Giroux: If we have a recession, half. Some of the megacap tech stocks
it will be mild. That’s because some of could turn the corner after a very dif-
the most cyclical parts of the economy ficult 2022. We could see that in the
are already depressed or will do less second half as they face much easier
badly than in previous downturns. comparisons. I’m feeling better about
Auto production was 16 million to 17 the market over the next 12 months.
million in 2018-19. It was 13 million in
2020-21 and 14 million in 2022, due to So, we have one person who feels
supply-chain issues. It is already close better about the bond market, and
to recessionary levels. another who feels better about
Commercial aerospace is an impor- stocks. Who here feels worse?
tant part of the industrial economy. William Priest: I’m not sure I feel
Boeing [ticker: BA] manufactured 757 worse, but we have experienced syn-
planes in 2019. It made 326 in 2022, chronized policy tightening around
and could make more than 500 the world. The magic money tree is
planes, given the demand outlook and over. That and a global energy shock
backlog. Capital spending tends to be will likely lead to a modest global re-
the most volatile part of GDP, and we cession. Interest rates will peak some-
believe it will hold up better than in time in 2023, and Treasuries will do
the past. The combination of the bene- OK this year. Credit risk is another
fits from the Inflation Reduction Act, story. As the Financial Times sug-
increased automation spending to gested in a recent article, if you want
replace high-cost labor, and modest to find out where credit risk is, go
onshoring should result in capital where the regulators aren’t. They
spending falling much less than in aren’t involved in private equity,
prior recessions. This is what we are where a lot of credit risk still has to
hearing from companies. play out, so I would avoid that.
Outside of housing, technology, and Last year’s selloff in the markets
parts of financial services, companies was all about rates, not earnings.
are going to be more reluctant to fire This year, the earnings outlook could
workers in a downturn than in the weaken. Companies are facing a
past, given that they just spent two higher WACC rate, or weighted aver-
years struggling to fill vacancies. We age cost of capital, which must be fac-
don’t expect to see the normal 200 to tored into corporate spending. It could
that many in the markets expect. around the world were so uniquely n David Giroux 300 basis-point increase in unem- be another down year for stocks.
Long-term inflation expectations are focused on the fear of deflation that CIO, T. Rowe ployment that we typically see in a The wild card is the war in
Price Investment
well anchored, but year-ahead expec- they threw in everything but the Management, mild recession. Ukraine. Three events changed the
tations are sticking at 5.2%. kitchen sink every time it looked like and portfolio world in the past 50 years. The first
manager, Capital
markets or the economy got wobbly. Appreciation fund,
How do stocks look to you? was the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989.
What are your third and fourth Now central banks are looking at a T. Rowe Price, Giroux: Reasonably attractive. The The second was China’s inclusion in
points? decade of normalization. Many people Baltimore market was down almost 20% last the World Trade Organization in
Third, financial conditions lead me to expect that once we start to see signs year, despite 5% to 6% earnings 2001. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in
expect that the Fed will raise interest of increased unemployment, the Fed growth, so valuations are much more 2022 will prove to have been the third.
rates to 5% to 5.5%, and maintain will cut rates dramatically and take attractive. When markets are down by If you want to better understand hu-
them there. Market expectations that us back to quantitative easing. I don’t double digits for a full year, forward man history, I recommend two books:
the Fed will cut rates by close to 50 expect that to happen. The normal returns tend to be above average, and Sapiens, by Yuval Noah Harari, and
basis points [100ths of a percentage or neutral rate of interest is probably the risk of negative returns is lower. A Principles for Dealing With the Changing
point] in the second half of this year higher than the Fed or any of us antic- lot of cyclical stocks are already down World Order, by Ray Dalio, which Bar-
are misplaced. ipate. The new normal will be like the 30% to 40% from their highs last ron’s recently wrote about.
Fourth, and most important, mar- old, old normal: When the economy year, and are pricing in a recession.
kets suffer from recency bias in terms slows, the Fed can probably cut rates Outside of energy, I don’t see a col- How will the war affect the econ-
of central-bank behavior. In the post- from 5%-5.5% to a little less than 3%, lapse in earnings in most sectors. En- omy and markets?
financial-crisis period, central banks but not much below that. ergy just has tough comparisons: Oil Priest: Europe will have a recession.
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 19
The geopolitical environment has got- liquidity, that made things perfect for more secular basis than in the past the negative camp when it comes to
ten a lot worse. We are reimagining the overextrapolation of secular decade. We saw the impact of the equity markets.
globalization and unwinding the law growth. Now we may be over-extrapo- rewind on the mortgage-bond market, Bill mentioned with regard to
of comparative advantage. Onshoring lating inflation dynamics and forget- because that’s the first area in which private equity that you have to look
won’t promote economic efficiency. It ting about a lot of long-term trends the Fed tapered. It knocked the wind where regulators aren’t looking. I
will be inflationary. Global growth will that are deflationary. Scott made some out of the housing market. We are would argue that nobody is looking at
diminish, and markets will struggle important points about demographics. underestimating the effect this shift is private equity, which has a lot of expo-
this year. Negative demographic trends, high going to have on the broader economy sure to junk bonds that are disguised
debt, wealth inequality, and the pro- and on risk-asset pricing. as equity, but are really debt. In that
Scott, what’s on your mind? ductivity of technology haven’t gone Equities are a risky asset class, and market, most transactions occur at
Scott Black: The key to the stock mar- away. They have merely taken a back that’s where the de-rating of valuation five to seven times debt to Ebitda
ket’s performance will be Federal Re- seat because of all the stimulus multiples has been underestimated, [earnings before interest, taxes, depre-
serve policy. The other macroeconomic jammed into the economy during the not just in terms of a recession caus- ciation, and amortization], which
issues on the table are the reopening of Covid pandemic in 2020. ing earnings to go down, but valuation would place them in the triple-C [debt
China’s economy, which will create Today, liquidity is being reduced at n Sonal Desai
compression. History has shown that rating] category, the junkiest of junk
demand for commodities, and the con- the same time that the Fed has been CIO and portfolio markets overreact—on the way up debt. Private equity’s valuation reset
tinuation of the war in Ukraine. Also, raising rates at the most rapid rate in manager, with multiple re-rating, and on the could create a negative feedback loop
Franklin Templeton
we’ll have to keep an eye on Covid out- generations, so we are going to have Fixed Income, way down with multiple de-rating. I in public equity markets, and defaults
breaks and variants, such as the new an economic cycle. Like Scott, we see San Mateo, Calif. would brace for that. I am squarely in could create contagion in debt markets
one in New England, which is highly inflation coming down, although it
contagious. If it spreads globally, it will be a nonlinear decline. At the end
could have a deleterious effect. We of the year, we could see the 10-year
should also think about black-swan Treasury yield below 3%, maybe as
events: Putin getting more aggressive low as 2%.
in Ukraine and the possibility that Investors often mistake the cyclical
China tries to seize Taiwan. And don’t for the secular, and vice versa. In
rule out the possibility that Israel 2021, they often priced cyclical growth
might bomb Iran to prevent it from as secular growth, and now there is a
becoming a nuclear power. tendency to price secular growth as
cyclical. The question is: How do you
Wow, you have a lot on your mind! price it? The S&P 500 is trading for 17
Black: The continued polarization times forward earnings, down from 21
of U.S. society isn’t good for the econ- times, which looks attractive. We see
omy. We can’t look away, either, from 60/40 odds that inflation is defeated
climate-related disasters—tornadoes and the economy has a soft landing or
and hurricanes and floods. Bill men- mild recession, as opposed to a hard
tioned the deglobalization of interna- landing. This is the year the Fed piv-
tional trade. Lastly, population in the ots. Rates probably peak in March.
U.S. was up just four-tenths of one As a long-term investor, the current
percent last year. We have an aging uncertainty is incredibly exciting.
population. Unless we change our Looking out 12 to 18 months, the Fed
immigration laws, we are in trouble. A regime will be in a much different
stagnant population makes it difficult place, and that could be positive for
to grow the economy and real GDP. growth assets—in particular, core
Getting back to the Fed, money companies in life sciences, precision
supply peaked in March. M1 is down agriculture, climate-change technolo-
3.6%, and M2 is down 1.8%. The Fed’s gies, and semiconductor software. We
balance sheet topped out at $9 tril- see great opportunities in wide-moat
lion last July and has been reduced by businesses that got hit by inflation. If
$218 billion, year over year. The Fed we have a deflationary period and
has started to break the back of infla- they regain pricing power, companies
tion. [Fed Chairman] Jay Powell and that underearned last year could
the group shouldn’t lower rates, but overearn.
pause rate hikes temporarily to see Rupal Bhansali: We have discussed
how the impact of past hikes plays rate change. I want to take this back
out. If the Fed stays the course on rate to regime change. We aren’t thinking
hikes, we are going to have a reces- enough about QE [quantitative easing]
sion. If not, GDP could be up a half- turning into QT [quantitative tighten-
percent to 1%-plus this year. ing]. It isn’t only about the increase in
Todd Ahlsten: Well said. I worry the risk-free rate of return. It’s about
about overextrapolating trends. That’s the increase in the risk premium. Both
a theme I thought about coming into affect the discount rate we use to value
this meeting. In 2021, we had an epic companies. Fed policy has perma-
peaking in conditions, such as zero nently shifted. QE going to QT is
to negative interest rates and ample something that will be with us on a
20 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
only negative real rates, but negative market-weighted ETFs and pushed I wasn’t going to comment on the labor market, or the [just ended] New
nominal rates in some countries. This those stocks higher, making them macro backdrop, but Abby started York nurses’ strike. Workers are strik-
has now ended. Valuations of many increasingly overvalued. The unwind- running with the Rs. I’ll add to her list ing not only about wages, but also
growth stocks made sense in 2021 if ing of this strategy is healthy, even that rates will stay higher, running off benefits. A rebound in inflation isn’t
you believed that inflation and interest though painful, and creates opportu- of the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet, off the table yet.
rates were never going to rise. The nities for good active managers. It also and the reduction of aggregate de-
same thinking played out in private creates opportunities for other, more- mand. Just read page seven of the Meryl, how do you see the year
equity and venture capital and the balanced models that individual inves- December FOMC minutes. Another unfolding?
market for SPACs [special purpose tors can use to participate in the mar- R is rhetoric. Powell is cautious. Meryl Witmer: The market isn’t dirt
acquisition companies]. We haven’t kets. These can include low-fee Note that the government is going cheap. If some of the many men-
yet seen all the damage. actively managed mutual funds and, to start to replenish the strategic oil tioned risks are realized, the poten-
for wealthier individuals, bespoke n Todd Ahlsten reserve, thus reducing oil supply by a tial exists for further downdrafts, but
CIO and lead
What is left to implode? “indexes” that exclude relatively portfolio manager,
million barrels a day. We mentioned that would be a good buying opportu-
Cohen: I am concerned about college pricey securities and can focus on tax Parnassus Core geopolitical tensions in the Middle nity. Also, problems in private equity
and charitable endowments, and other efficiency. Equity fund, East. What happens if oil, instead of are going to open the market for cor-
Parnassus
investors in private equity and venture As for risks, Bill mentioned the end Investments, staying around $75-$80 a barrel, goes porate bolt-on acquisitions, to the
capital who thought these weren’t of globalization. I would describe it as San Francisco to $110? And don’t ignore the strong extent that companies can get regula-
volatile investments. They didn’t look more wary relationships with some
volatile because of reporting proce- countries. Low prices were viewed as
dures, as opposed to what was hap- a positive outgrowth of globalization
pening beneath the surface. Alterna- because we could tap into inexpensive
tive-asset managers benefited from workers elsewhere. I’m happy to see
cheap money. They borrowed and that wages are rising again. It was
levered up their returns, but that problematic that the median house-
strategy is largely over. We are going hold income in the U.S. was stuck for
to learn a lot more in the next three 30 years and fell relative to inflation.
months because auditors will provide This created political tensions.
a reality check as they review fourth- I have some Rs for risk: the reopen-
quarter and full-year results. ing of China, which may be a good or
Where should things be priced bad thing, depending on the death rate
now? In equities, I have found that and release of new Covid variants.
return on equity is a helpful indicator. There’s Russia, and the risk that the
Companies that could maintain profit war extends beyond Ukraine. What
margins and increase return on equity Russia is doing with regard to energy
weren’t a bad place to be last year. It is supply is problematic and might en-
also important, as Rupal mentioned, courage other bad actors. Another R is
to adjust the risk premium in various the rest of the world: slow growth in
asset categories now that we are sort Europe and the United Kingdom, and
of back to normal. The premium potential conflict over Taiwan. I agree
above the risk-free rate matters a with Scott that we should pay atten-
great deal. tion to the Middle East. And I have a
P, for polarization of U.S. politics,
What else should we be focused which might come to a head when
on? Congress has to raise the debt ceiling
Cohen: I loved Todd’s discussion later this year.
about overextrapolation. Related to Mario Gabelli: I’d like to dig into the
that, for many years there was an plumbing of U.S. companies and what
incrementalism in portfolio manage- they are doing, including reducing
ment. Little attention was paid to the inventories. The ones I follow are
possibility of major turning points in learning how to better manage inven-
the economy and markets; extrapola- tory with LIFO [last in, first out] and
tion of the recent past dominated. If FIFO [first in, first out] accounting.
inflation and rates were always under As a manager, you have to understand
control and the economy always the gross-margin impact of high-cost
grew, managers made only small goods moving into the P&L [profit and
adjustments to portfolios from year loss statement]. Then, you have to
to year. There was too much focus consider price increases, and how
on short-term relative performance inelastic demand might be. You have
and fees. to focus on SG&A [selling, general,
We also saw the extraordinary and administrative costs], currency,
growth of ETFs [exchange-traded and pension costs. Managing a busi-
funds]. Market-cap-weighted ap- ness is a great learning curve, and we
proaches can be self-fulfilling. More look at how companies are handling
and more money went into a small that. Which managements anticipate
number of tech stocks that dominated dynamics and which don’t?
22 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
fixed income could yield in the vicin- Witmer: I’m in the flattish category. I
ity of 4.5% to 5%. Investors need to don’t sense a lot of fear in the market.
consider TIAN—there is an alterna- Gabelli: I see rattlesnakes every-
tive now to equity markets—and it is where, including outside the U.S.
called fixed income. We talked about private markets and
Ahlsten: The first half of the year shadow banking. Companies will start
could be challenging. We are not out thinking about 15% taxes on book
of the woods yet. But inflation is com- income. The first half is going to be
ing down, and the S&P 500 could be choppy. Toward the end of the year,
up 10% or more on the year. Looking the outlook for China, which is 20%
to 2024, we’ll have a presidential elec- of world GDP, will be brighter. It is
tion. Don’t rule out the possibility of important to discount that. Assuming
more stimulus or the Fed pivoting to a the war doesn’t worsen, Europe could
looser monetary policy. You’ve got to do better. I expect the S&P 500 to end
fasten your seatbelt for the next three the year around 3500 to 3800—down
to six months, but the S&P 500 could 5% not from Jan. 1, but from today’s
end the year above 4300. 3930 or so. But there are many stock-
Cohen: My assumption is that there specific ideas I will share later.
won’t be a recession, even though we Desai: I’m not an equity person, but
could have two quarters of disappoint- based on my macro outlook, I expect
ing GDP. But any downturn will be the S&P 500, and equity markets gen-
brief, so I am assuming no recession. erally, to be flat this year. The current
The labor markets will stay strong. I market volatility is less about the data
expect S&P 500 earnings to grow by and more about everyone trying to
5% to 8% above 2022 levels. Compa- second-guess what the Fed’s reaction
nies may push some fourth-quarter will be. An unemployment rate of 5%
earnings per share into 2023. I also isn’t massively recessionary. Interest
assume that inflation will look better rates of 5% aren’t massively contrac-
in the second half. Core PCE [per- tionary. We just happened to have a
sonal consumption expenditures], the 15-year period in which interest rates
inflation measure the Fed looks at, were close to zero. That isn’t normal.
could be 3% or a smidgen lower by the
end of the year, which suggests that Assuming the S&P 500 ends the
valuation multiples aren’t going to year at 4300, it would be trading
contract. It could be a volatile year for for roughly 18 times earnings
stocks and fixed income, but I arrive based on consensus estimates of
at a year-end number similar to roughly $230 this year and $250 in
Todd’s: 4300 on the S&P 500. 2024. Isn’t that on the high side,
Giroux: I, too, have 4300 at year end. given higher interest rates?
We will feel better about the economy, Ahlsten: I am comfortable with a P/E
inflation, and earnings a year from multiple of 18. Capital goes where it is
today. Predicting the next year is treated best. Despite political infight-
difficult. We try to model five-year ing here and other issues, I don’t see
returns. We think about long-term any other place with such great op-
equity market returns of 8%. At the portunities for capital. Also, the S&P
beginning of 2022, we were modeling 500 includes some of the best compa-
about 5% forward five-year returns. nies in the world. I want to invest in
tory approval for deals, which could daq were both trading at 21.3 times nAbby Joseph Today, with the market at 3900, we some of the best companies that are
help earnings. earnings on Jan. 6. Stocks are expen- Cohen are projecting forward returns slightly innovating in life sciences, software,
Professor of
Companies are reluctant to lay off sive, but once the Fed eases up on rate Business, above 8%. and other fields. No. 3, the Fed could
workers, but at some point that will hikes, the market could rally. The S&P Graduate School Priest: The market could end the year turn more accommodative toward the
of Business,
end. More people will be freed up to 500 could go up 5% to 6% by Dec. 31, Columbia
about where it is now. Inflation isn’t a end of the year. So, a P/E multiple of
be more productive in other jobs. Lon- plus pay a 1.5% dividend yield. University, problem until it gets into wages. It is 18 isn’t too high a price to pay to par-
ger term, that’s a positive, but it could Bhansali: I wouldn’t rule out a two- New York getting into wages and is going to be ticipate in the best market in the
be a near-term negative for corporate handle on the S&P 500—that is, a sticky. The cost of capital is going up world and some of the best compa-
earnings, because of too many em- price of 2900 as opposed to 3900, for corporations, and rates will proba- nies, especially when M2 might be
ployees for the level of business. based on my estimated 2023 earnings bly be up a little. growing again and the government
decline in a recession to at least $207 Ellenbogen: I agree with Bill. I expect might be stimulating the economy in
The S&P 500 ended last year at and a price/earnings multiple of 14 stocks to be down in the year’s first an election cycle.
3839.50. Let’s get your 2023 times, versus trailing consensus ex- half, but the second half should be Giroux: There is more that drives
market forecasts. pectations of $217 in 2022 earnings better. We are all looking for weak- market multiples than interest rates
Black: If you expect earnings to grow and a P/E of 18 times. For a long time, ness in the jobs market. It will take and earnings. The correlation between
by 6% to 8%, to $27.3 trillion, that investors believed in TINA—there is either fewer job openings or job losses rates and S&P 500 earnings over the
puts the market at around 18 times no alternative to stocks—because fixed to lift the unemployment rate. Once past 20 years is close to zero. In addi-
earnings. The Russell 2000 and Nas- income was yielding nothing. Today, that happens, stocks should do better. tion, the mix of the market has
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 23
changed dramatically in the past 15 or three years ago as to why some graphics are terrible; India will sur- appropriate pricing of risk as markets
years. The lowest-multiple parts of cryptocurrencies were perhaps getting pass China in [population] size, and come to terms with a paradigm shift:
the market, such as energy and finan- too much credit for what they could China has an enormous amount of Central banks won’t be bailing us out
cials, have become much smaller con- actually accomplish and what they unproductive debt. every time things get wobbly.
tributors to earnings. Even the mix were worth. Cohen: There is an orbit of countries Ahlsten: I expect that we will be talk-
of businesses within large compa- with autocratic governments support- ing about how low interest rates are
nies, such as Apple [AAPL] and Why is it taking so long to have any ing Russia. Other nations need to keep going to go in 2024. The shifting tec-
Microsoft [MSFT], is much better meaningful activity on blockchain? a watch on this. With regard to China, tonic plates of high debt levels, weak
today. Their businesses are faster Cohen: Thus far, advances in block- there is so much to look at. The gov- demographics, wealth inequality, and
growing and more durable. A micro- chain haven’t been visible publicly. ernment is autocratic, and may feel technological productivity will outpoll
analysis of the largest 100 companies Companies are experimenting with somewhat empowered by Russia’s scarcity and deglobalization. Inflation
in the S&P 500 also supports a and using it for internal purposes. move in Ukraine. According to the has been hard to extrapolate. We over-
higher multiple. Even free-cash People want to make sure they have Semiconductor Industry Association, extrapolate high inflation. A year from
conversion has gone up over time. the technology working properly, and Taiwan and China combined control now, we could be asking how low the
Priest: I disagree with my colleagues. that they are doing things in the ways 40% to 45% of global semiconductor CPI could go below 2% in the second
Start with the Gordon Growth Model, they need to. Blockchain is a ledger. n Scott Black production. In 1990, the U.S. alone half of 2024.
which is a formula used to determine What sort of permanent ledger do you Founder and produced almost 40%. Now we are Bhansali: The blind spot in the mar-
president, Delphi
the intrinsic value of a stock, based on need? Some of those questions haven’t Management, down below 15%. ket is the amount of debt and deriva-
a future series of dividends that grow been answered yet. I am hearing of Boston Desai: We will be talking about the tives, which are a form of leverage.
at a constant rate. The cost of capital interesting applications in financial
has gone up for almost every company services, in the trading of carbon cred-
in the world. That is going to hurt its, and in supply-chain management
valuations. in several industries.
Ellenbogen: I agree that the develop-
Stocks had a bad year, but crypto- ment of blockchain has been incredi-
currencies had a terrible year. bly slow. Compare it with AI. Go to
What do you make of crypto’s the demo of ChatGPT and you see
problems, and the underlying something stunning. Although there
blockchain technology? is going to be a lot of hype around AI,
Cohen: I gave a guest lecture at Co- traditional businesses will use it to
lumbia a year or so ago in which I was unlock tremendous cost savings. I
asked about crypto. I likened it to tulip can’t wait to call my phone or cable
bulbs in the Netherlands in the 1600s. company and talk to the smartest
During the tulip mania, tulip bulbs “person” who knows my account
were worth what anyone wanted to perfectly and can deal with all the
pay for them. When, suddenly, no one technicalities of my setup instantly.
wanted them, the price collapsed. That’s where we’re going to be in two
Similarly, there was no way to ascer- to four years.
tain what a cryptocurrency was Ahlsten: Established companies like
worth. Tulips are perhaps an extreme the Mastercards and Visas and even
example, but a warning. Blockchain the Bank of Americas have an oppor-
technology will likely have real appli- tunity to widen their moats and im-
cations. Thus far, cryptocurrencies plement a lot of this technology.
have been used in large part by bad Ellenbogen: Had we been discussing
actors, such as those involved in this five years ago, there would have
ransomware attacks or other shady been populist concern about the jobs
activities. that will be lost. Now people think
Gabelli: Every crypto transaction is about efficiency and expertise as a
taxable. Those who bought or sold positive force because of the struggles
crypto in the past 24 months are going we have had in ramping up our labor
to have an interesting interplay with force. We have had transactional auto-
the IRS from a tax perspective. mation and some factory automation.
Priest: The best money and banking We have had almost no conversational
book I’ve ever read is The Future of automation, and that’s what we are
Money by Eswar Prasad. Crypto is not talking about here.
money in the sense of what money
does. Money is a unit of account, a What will we be talking about a
means of exchange, and a store of year from now, other than the
value. Crypto might meet the first two coming election?
tests for some people, but it isn’t a Priest: The consequences of the
store of value. Ukraine war. Russia’s detonation of
Cohen: Prof. Prasad, who is at Cor- a tactical nuclear weapon is a small
nell University and the Brookings possibility, but it isn’t off the table.
Institution, is my guru in these mat- That could change everything. And,
ters. He made a cogent argument two yes, China is reopening, but its demo-
24 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
ROUNDTABLE
Members of the Barron’s Roundtable buy and sell securities and change their investment
2022 opinions as prices and market conditions change. The 2022 Roundtable was held
on Jan. 10. Here’s how the panelists’ 2022 Roundtable recommendations performed
through Dec. 30. The S&P 500 index posted a total return of -16.6% in the same period.
REPORT CARD
Henry Ellenbogen’s Picks
Price Price Price Total
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
MSCI / MSCI $552.00 $465.17 -15.7% -14.9%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT 200.11 174.36 -12.9 -12.1
Warby Parker / WRBY 39.71 13.49 -66.0 -66.0
Todd Ahlsten’s Picks
Price Price Price Total Vail Resorts / MTN 308.12 238.35 -22.6 -20.2
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
Shopify / SHOP* 114.45 34.71 -69.7 -69.7
Deere / DE $378.65 $428.76 13.2% 14.4% *Adjusted for a 10-for-1 stock split.
Fiserv / FISV 108.83 101.07 -7.1 -7.1
Mastercard / MA 369.65 347.73 -5.9 -5.5 Mario Gabelli’s Picks
Price Price Price Total
Adobe / ADBE 510.70 336.53 -34.1 -34.1 Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
Applied Materials / AMAT 150.81 97.38 -35.4 -34.8 Liberty Braves Group / BATRA $28.05 $32.67 16.5% 16.5%
Danaher / DHR 295.67 265.42 -10.2 -9.9 Madison Square Garden Sports / MSGS 168.42 183.33 8.9 13.0
Paramount Global / PARA* 35.39 16.88 -52.3 -49.6
Rupal J. Bhansali’s Picks
Price Price Price Total CNH Industrial / CNHI 16.15 16.06 -0.6 1.3
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
Iveco Group / IVG.Italy €10.29 €5.56 -46.0 -46.0
Direct Line Insurance / DLG.UK GBp290 GBp221 -23.8% -16.0%
Dana / DAN $23.93 $15.13 -36.8 -35.1
Credicorp / BAP $134.12 $135.66 1.1 4.1
Genuine Parts / GPC 138.94 173.51 24.9 27.5
BB Seguridade Participacoes / BBSEY 3.54 6.30 78.0 89.1
Dril-Quip / DRQ 22.70 27.17 19.7 19.7
Baidu / BIDU 153.33 114.38 -25.4 -25.4
Total Return in USD: DLG.UK=-24.8%
Halliburton / HAL 26.02 39.35 51.2 53.1
Grupo Televisa / TV 10.01 4.56 -54.4 -53.6
*Changed name and ticker from ViacomCBS (VIAC). Total Return in USD: IVG.Italy=-49.1%.
Scott Black’s Picks
Price Price Price Total
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return David Giroux’s Picks
Ichor Holdings / ICHR $44.05 $26.82 -39.1% -39.1% Price Price Price Total
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
Hercules Capital / HTGC 17.03 13.22 -22.4 -10.8%
General Electric / GE $101.40 $83.79 -17.4% -17.1%
Nexstar Media Group / NXST 155.33 175.03 12.7 15.0
Becton Dickinson / BDX* 247.78 254.30 2.6 4.0
Civitas Resources / CIVI 55.15 57.93 5.0 16.4
Thermo Fisher Scientific / TMO 607.07 550.69 -9.3 -9.1
Mosaic / MOS 40.18 43.87 9.2 10.6
Keurig Dr Pepper / KDP 37.30 35.66 -4.4 -2.9
TE Connectivity / TEL 158.57 114.80 -27.6 -26.2
Abby Joseph Cohen’s Picks
Price Price Price Total Amazon.com / AMZN** 162.55 84.00 -48.3 -48.3
Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return *Adjusted to reflect Embecta spinoff. **Adjusted for a 20-for-1 stock split.
Clarion Partners Real Estate Income / CPREX $12.10 $12.38 2.3% 7.7%
Meryl Witmer’s Picks
Franklin High Yield Tax-Free Income / FHYVX 10.45 8.69 -16.8 -13.2 Price Price Price Total
Global X US Infrastructure Development / PAVE* 28.35 22.77 -19.7 -19.4 Company / Ticker 1/7/22 12/30/22 Change Return
Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure / GLFOX 16.30 14.21 -12.8 -0.2 Dollar Tree / DLTR $140.96 $141.44 0.3% 0.3%
Parametric Commodity Strategy / EAPCX 6.34 6.37 0.5 15.3 Sylvamo / SLVM 29.74 48.59 63.4 64.1
SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan / SRLN 45.65 40.90 -10.4 -5.3 Ardagh Metal Packaging / AMBP 8.66 4.81 -44.5 -40.0
Franklin Income / FRIAX 2.52 2.25 -10.7 -6.0 Hillman Solutions / HLMN 9.95 7.21 -27.5 -27.5
Franklin Equity Income / FEIFX* 31.95 27.20 -14.9 -13.8 Holcim / HOLN.Switzerland CHF48.36 CHF47.88 -1.0 3.6
*Position closed 6/30/2022 Total Return in USD: HOLN.Switzerland=-2.9%
Total return includes dividends received but not reinvested Source: Bloomberg
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 25
Dodge deal and an upturn in the aero- on global drug development. In De- Ebit margins to the mid-30% level in rent P/E, the stock could trade up to
space and defense cycle, combined cember, the company changed its list- that period. Also, its current private $20 to $24 in 2025 from a recent $16.
with some paydown of debt, will lift ing from the U.K. to the U.S., and had market value is likely twice its current
growth in earnings per share. We ex- to transition its investor base. Second, price. Companies such as Thermo Why are you investing mostly in
pect RBC to earn close to $7 a share it is a one-off business, something the Fisher Scientific [TMO] and Perkin- mid-caps?
this year, and $9 in the next calendar market doesn’t like. It doesn’t under- Elmer [PKI] have bought similar as- Ellenbogen: Smaller stocks are the
year, even with a recession. Free cash stand the economics of the business. sets for double Abcam’s price. most attractive part of the market, not
flow is about 10% to 15% more than In the past six years, Abcam transi- Like ball bearings, antibodies are only because of the drop in valuations,
earnings per share. We see the stock tioned its business to 65% antibodies essential products. The market share but because the selloff in stocks that
trading somewhere between $230 and and 35% proteins. By investing in sys- of specific antibodies rises as they are came public in 2020 and 2021 has
$280 in a year, up from a recent $225. tems and people, it took its Ebit mar- cited in scientific journals. Abcam has created tremendous opportunities. For
gins down from 36% to 23%. Many 25% of its core antibody market, and is many years, the number of small com-
What is your third pick? other companies in this market gener- n William Priest
gaining share. It also will be investing panies in the market was shrinking.
Ellenbogen: Abcam [ABCM] has a ate 40% to 60% Ebit margins. We Executive Chair- in bioprocessing. In the next three In the past couple of years, it has
$3.3 billion market cap. It is the lead- believe that Abcam is exiting its in- man and co-CIO, years, Abcam could grow its top line grown again. At the same time, not
Epoch Investment
ing supplier of antibodies to scientific vestment phase and will see mid-teens Partners, at a mid-teens rate, and margins are many people are spending time doing
researchers—a pick-and-shovel play growth in the next three years, driving New York expanding. Assuming it holds its cur- research in this area, for a variety of
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 27
share. GAAP [generally accepted ac- Ellenbogen: Yes, but there are also English. sion, so I would prefer to focus on
counting principles] accounting is payment tiers. AI was built into the capital preservation rather than ap-
better suited to transactions than sub- company from day one, and Duolingo What will the IPO market look like preciation, which will be hard to come
scriptions. Also, there has been a de- is introducing a new paid program this year? by. In such times, dividends can cush-
bate about the size of the market. TSA that will allow for one-on-one tutoring Ellenbogen: I expect the market to ion the blow to help generate positive
PreCheck has 10 million members. using AI. We think of this as a free reopen, but in a relatively muted way. total returns. All of my picks have
Clear recently reported 40% free- option. The company also offers an There are two challenges. Attractive recession-resilient revenue, strong
28 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
balance sheets, and stocks that are that is not the case. How concerned should investors ative. No government is likely to stand
out of favor, allowing me to buy qual- The other big risk with a pharma be about the recent political dis- in the way of that. Telecommunica-
ity on sale. company is generics, but GSK has no turbances in Brazil? tions have revolutionized life in many
I continue to like Direct Line risk of genericization for at least for Bhansali: We have seen political un- emerging markets because it has de-
Insurance Group [DLG.UK], but the next three years. The stock trades rest in other parts of the world when mocratized access to financial services
this year I am recommending another for 10 times 2023 expected earnings, there have been upset political victo- and many social services. The political
U.K. insurer, Admiral Group, which compared with the pharma sector’s ries. The telecom industry is less vul- risk to this industry is far less than for
trades in the U.S. via an ADR [Amer- P/E of 17 times, even though it has a nerable to macro headwinds or policy some other industries. Because the
ican depositary receipt, AMIGY]. decent growth. turmoil because its products and ser- broader Brazilian stock market has
Admiral has an asset-light business vices are necessities. I consider tele- fallen, you are getting a higher poten-
model because it is mostly a distribu- How much does it yield? com the new consumer staple. In a tial return for a risk that you aren’t
tor of auto-insurance policies, rather Bhansali: The stock yields 2.9%, n Mario Gabelli digital world, having access to fiber assuming.
Chairman and CEO,
than an underwriter. It cedes a lot of which isn’t high. Gamco Investors, and 5G networks, which both of these
the underwriting risk to reinsurance, My next picks are in Brazil, as was Greenwich, Conn. companies are rolling out, is an imper- Thank you, Rupal. B
but still got hit hard last year be- one of my 2022 picks, which did ex-
cause of high claims inflation on the tremely well. People were concerned
risks it retains. We all know how about investing in Latin America and
much used-car prices went up, and emerging markets in general, and
how spare parts were in short supply. there was an election cycle that caused
This is costly for an auto insurer, be- the market to get hit hard. Yet, Brazil
cause it has to repair or replace a car turned out to be one of the best-per-
damaged in an accident. forming markets with one of the best-
Admiral is a play on falling claims performing currencies in 2022. Once
inflation. Because of this inflation, the again, people overreacted, and the risk
entire U.K. auto-insurance industry is was more than priced in.
raising prices. The company’s earn- The wireless telecom industry has
ings are going up because it has raised been a beneficiary of consolidation in
prices, just as claims costs are starting Brazil. The regulator recently ap-
to fall. Insurance and financial busi- proved the sale of wireless assets by
nesses generally have low returns on Oi, formerly the fourth-largest player
equity, but Admiral is an exception in the market, to the other three play-
because it is more of a distributor. ers in the market, including TIM
ROE is in the 30% to 40% range. The [TIMB]. This in-market consolidation
stock fell last year, giving investors a helps profitability and growth.
dividend yield that will be close to 5% TIM is a wireless pure play, with
this year. It has a high P/E multiple of a P/E of about 15 times forward 12-
16 times earnings, again because of its month earnings. The dividend yield is
asset-light model. about 6.5%. Given my view that most
international currencies are likely to
How is Admiral affected by the appreciate against the dollar, one can
economic problems in the U.K.? make greater dollar returns owning
Bhansali: The U.K. is one of the TIM ADRs.
cheapest markets in the world, but Telefonica Brasil [VIV] is an in-
when the risk is in the price, it is a tegrated fixed-line and mobile telecom
risk worth taking. In 2022, investors operator investing heavily in fiber and
were worried about investing in Eu- 5G. In the U.S., fiber investments can
rope because of the Ukraine war, but be expensive because of the cost of
European stocks outperformed the construction and a unionized labor
S&P 500. This speaks to the power force. But in Brazil, it is quite low-cost
of nonconsensus investing. to bring fiber into homes. It isn’t laid
My second pick, GSK [GSK], is in the ground but strung on wires
also a U.K. stock. The U.K. is one of above the ground, and the regulatory
the most out-of-favor and cheapest and permitting environment is quite
markets in the world. GSK is a health- relaxed. In the aftermath of Covid and
care company, and healthcare tends to work-from-home, everyone wants to
be recession-resilient. The stock took have wireless internet at home. Tele-
a hit because of a lawsuit regarding fonica is in a competitive position in
Zantac, an antacid that has been on the state of São Paulo, the biggest
the market almost 40 years. We don’t state in Brazil. It is a beneficiary of
expect class-action suits to result in the wireless industry’s consolidation
the tens of billions of dollars of dam- in Brazil. The stock trades for about
ages that the Street is worried about. 14.5 times 2023 estimated earnings,
Plaintiffs allege that there is a link with a dividend yield of about 7.5%.
between Zantac and cancer, but a Both stocks are equally compelling
recent verdict in Florida suggests from a valuation perspective.
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 29
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dards of the brand. unpaid Angels raises alarms among employees and they do not receive
heikh Kante first learned “For New Angels, termination employment experts. Matthew Finkin, Changpeng Zhao, remuneration from Binance.” The
about cryptocurrencies in can happen as a result of their Angel a professor of employment law at the the Chinese-born company says it doesn’t give Angels
billionaire who
a college economics class Evaluation carried out every quarter,” University of Illinois, says the pro- runs Binance, has
access to internal company systems.
in Senegal. He soon started according to a 10-page set of internal gram sounds like a “way to get free often expressed Angels often stick with the pro-
trading crypto because he guidelines viewed by Barron’s. labor.” his gratitude for the gram in hopes of landing a job with
cryptocurrency’s
was attracted to the con- The guidelines, which are given to Binance declined to answer specific international net- Binance, though only a few get that
cept of an alternative mon- new recruits, state that “Angels are questions about its Angels program. work of volunteers. opportunity. In one video promoting
etary system. About a year ago, the its Angels program, the company
28-year-old applied to become a notes that “many Angels have even
Binance Angel—the name of the become Binance employees. The
unpaid volunteer program run by possibilities are really endless.”
Binance, the world’s largest crypto- Binance told Barron’s it hired 20
currency exchange. Angels out of the program last year—
The program is promoted by Bi- or about 5% of the group. Binance had
nance using enticing videos featuring 7,500 employees at the end of 2022.
lively company events and volunteers Angels choose specific concentra-
in corporate swag. In 2022, Binance tions, such as working in content cre-
had 380 active Angels in 81 countries. ation, product technology, or public
The company’s CEO has called the relations. Applicants accepted to the
volunteer unit the “secret to Binance’s program are subject to a period of
L
into a gray area.” aunched in 2017, Binance is the ing into how best to provide those nia known as Binance.US. A spokes-
Binance Angels are “subject to largest crypto-trading platform details in the coming months,” it said. person for Binance.US says that it has
quarterly evaluations to determine in the world. It is private and Binance’s next-largest competitor its own volunteer Angels program that
TECH TRADER
Ángel González, 22, spent a year hacks.” (SAFU refers to a Secure As-
as a Binance Angel working in Vene- set Fund for Users.)
zuela. He joined because of his interest Makarchuk, 31, credits the Angel
in crypto and to get professional expe- program with helping him get a job
rience. “It’s a volunteer program, but six months later. “It can be used as
you work with the marketing depart- a great lift for sort of boosting your
ment, all the interns, and you can get career in crypto,” he told Barron’s.
some very good experience there with
a professional team,” he says.
The guidelines for Angels include
Androux Reabow, a Binance Angel
in London, says the volunteer position
was all-encompassing. “They wanted
The Regulatory Threat to
a recommendation to plan events for
a minimum of 100 attendees.
“Meet-ups can be both formal and
you to do about 12 hours a week, but
generally I did quite a bit more,” he
says. It became a part of his daily
Tech Is Still Growing
informal—but the key is engaging,” the routine: “I could be out and about
guidelines state. “As long as Binance responding on Telegram or Discord,”
fans can mingle and share their love he explained.
for the brand on- and offline, we’re “There is no requirement to un- By Eric J. Savitz be a big win for Microsoft (MSFT) Bing.
happy to welcome your ideas and sup- dertake work,” a Binance spokesper- Lina Khan: Gallant says the stage is set
W
port you throughout the process. We son says about the program. “Bi- ith a divided Congress now for Federal Trade Commission Chair-
want our Angels to feel empowered!” nance Angels are not given access in charge, the near-term woman Lina Khan to flex her regulatory
González eventually left the pro- to Binance equipment or Binance prospects for legislation reg- might. He sees Khan filing an antitrust
gram because he accepted a paid posi- internal systems.” ulating the technology giants case against Amazon.com (AMZN), citing
tion with a different cryptocurrency The Binance Angel guidelines indi- looks uncertain at best. But there are still a variety of anticompetitive behavior, like
company and didn’t have time to man- cate that it is “strictly forbidden to major legal and regulatory events coming favoring its own products in search. He
age his unpaid volunteer work at the advertise any external/premium this year for the tech sector. also sees the FTC opposing Amazon’s
same time. groups or other crypto projects.” In an interview with Barron’s this past pending bid for Roomba vacuum cleaner
Fedir Makarchuk, who lives in Reabow, like González and Ma- week, Paul Gallant, policy analyst at Co- company iRobot (IRBT). And he thinks
Kyiv, Ukraine, was also looking for karchuk, spoke positively of the Angel wen Washington Research Group, rattled the FTC this year is likely to propose
experience working in the world of program. He, too, ultimately stopped off a long list of key moments ahead for tough new data-privacy rules.
crypto when he joined the Angels working as a Binance Angel because tech investors. Even without major moves Ride Sharing: Remember Prop 22? The
program in 2021. He was initially he got a job working in crypto. from Congress, 2023 is shaping up as a measure was approved by California voters
rejected for paying jobs in the field Weil, the former head of the De- year in which the government will have a in November 2020 and exempted gig-econ-
but got an interview to become a partment of Labor’s Wage and Hour big impact on tech. Here are some of the omy companies from a California law clas-
Binance Angel and decided to join. division, says Binance Angels’ hope key stories and questions to watch: sifying drivers as employees rather than
for full-time positions with the com- Section 230: “I’ve long said we must contractors. A California court found Prop
A
fter signing on, Binance An- pany makes the program sound essen- fundamentally reform Section 230 of the 22 unconstitutional, and the companies
gels are required to create new tially like unpaid internships, which Communications Decency Act,” President appealed. A state appeals court is expected
aliases to access Binance’s were the subject of a high profile legal Biden wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed to rule in March. Gallant says the case will
Telegram channels in order to dispute during his tenure at the this past week. While Congress may not likely be appealed to the state Supreme
separate their work from personal department. act, the Supreme Court will hear arguments Court, no matter who wins. He notes that
accounts, according to the company’s In 2011, two Fox Searchlight in- in late February on two cases that could the Department of Labor is wrapping up a
guidelines. Makarchuk got a separate terns sued their employer, arguing trigger changes in Section 230, which pro- rule-making process on the same question.
telephone number to monitor Bi- that the work was a violation of the tects social-media platforms from legal lia- If the department adopts tougher rules on
nance social networks as an Angel, Fair Standards Labor Act. (At the time bility over user content. Both cases—Gonza- job classification, the Biden administration
at the company’s request. the suit was filed, Fox Searchlight was lez v. Google and Twitter v. Taamneh— might sue gig companies like Uber Tech-
“We want to make sure that we owned by News Corp, which pub- involve the use of social-media platforms by nologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT), he says.
have the right people, and we take lishes Barron’s.) ISIS terrorists. The court will address LiveNation: It isn't a tech company per
security seriously in this space,” a A class-action settlement was later whether social-media services did enough se, but LiveNation Entertainment (LYV)
Binance spokesperson said in re- reached that compensated some for- to block terrorists from their platforms. A is dealing with similar platform issues. Gal-
sponse to questions about its proba- mer unpaid interns for their work. ruling is expected in June. lant sees a 60% chance the DOJ files an
tion period for volunteers. In 2015, the U.S. Second Circuit Court Search: Coming this September is the antitrust suit seeking to undo LiveNation’s
Binance Angels are given scripts of Appeals said that it was too rigid to U.S. v. Google, the longstanding Depart- 2010 deal for Ticketmaster.
for how to reply to routine customer classify unpaid interns as full-time ment of Justice case asserting antitrust vio- TikTok: Gallant sees a 40% chance
queries like, “How does Binance en- employees, but ruled that there had to lations by the search giant. The crucial that Congress bans TikTok this year. Keep
sure my funds are safe?” according to be some educational value or training question is whether Alphabet’s (ticker: an eye on how President Biden leans.
documents reviewed by Barron’s. as part of the internship in order to GOOGL) Google has furthered a monopoly “There’s a tug of war in the White House,
“Good question,” the script says. justify not paying them. by paying Apple (AAPL) for the right to be with political staff viewing it as a tool to
“In crypto, security is directly linked “The law in this country is partic- the preferred search engine on Apple de- elect Democrats, and the national-security
to what type of ‘wallet’ you use.” The ularly strict about for-profit enter- vices. Any ruling that breaks up the cozy staff viewing it as a Chinese spying de-
script notes that Binance is a digital prises offering unpaid internships relationship would be bad for both sides— vice,” he says. Gallant asserts the most
wallet that might be vulnerable to because of the concern over exploita- Apple provides more than half of Google’s likely move would be to demand TikTok
outside hacks, but adds, “Thankfully, tion and employer leverage and search traffic, according to some estimates, parent ByteDance sell the U.S. business—
Binance has a SAFU fund which is a power,” Weil says, “which is the while collecting an annual fee reportedly an approach that would echo the Trump
separate fund dedicated to safeguard- whole reason we regulate labor above $10 billion. (The actual number isn’t administration’s position. If China rejects
ing Binance from these types of markets in the first place.” B disclosed.) A court-ordered change could that idea, the result could be a ban. B
34 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
FU N DS I N C O M E I N V E ST I N G
Foreign Small-Cap Funds The 10-Year Is Looking
Are Too Cheap to Ignore Up, but Volatility Lurks
By Lewis Braham annualized return. The fund typically By Lawrence C. Strauss portfolio sensitivity to interest rates as we
owns only about 60 high-quality stocks. approach the end of the [Federal Re-
A L
fter last year’s bear market, U.S. Brodsky says that investors should be onger-term Treasuries have been serve’s] rate-hiking cycle.”
small-cap stocks look inexpen- wary of indexing foreign small-caps, call- something of a wasteland for Berro believes there are opportunities
sive. Foreign small-caps look ing it a “scattershot approach” where in- investors, but there are now in high-quality holdings in the 10-year
even cheaper. vestors end up with a “lot of lower-quality some signs of improvement. part of the curve, including government
These stocks are a “slam dunk,” says stuff,” as many foreign markets aren’t as The 10-year part of the yield curve “is debt, corporate credits, and municipals.
Ryan Myers, co-manager of the Causeway regulated as they are in the U.S. a reasonable place to be looking,” says
B
International Small Cap fund (ticker: A recent purchase for Brodsky is Fuji Kelsey Berro, a portfolio manager at J.P. ut the 10-year also poses risks,
CVISX). He points out that the MSCI Seal International (7864.Japan), a Japa- Morgan Asset Management, though it including volatility. If the Fed
ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index trades at nese packaging company that makes com- depends “on your ability to withstand ends up having to push rates
a price/earnings ratio of 12.2 versus the pact plastic pouches for food and drinks volatility, and on your time horizon.” higher and longer than the mar-
MSCI US Small Cap Index’s 17.3. Myers’ that save space and reduce waste. Brodsky The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury kets expect, it could pressure 10-year
fund, which focuses on undervalued notes that Japanese stocks in general have Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: Treasury prices, sending yields higher. “I
small-caps, has a P/E of 5.9. improved their corporate governance in IEF) has a one-year return of minus don’t think that the risk that’s embedded
The other potential advantage for for- recent years to focus more on shareholder 11.4%, including interest payments, right now in those longer-duration
eign small-caps is currency. In the third value. Japanese stocks make up 23% of his though it has performed better recently, [bonds] is worth taking,” says Yung-Yu
quarter of 2022, the euro and Japanese yen portfolio. returning about 4% over the past three Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO
were as cheap relative to the dollar as they Overseas small-caps are poorly covered months. Wealth Management.
had been in 20 years, with the euro at 96 by Wall Street analysts, so it’s easier for The 10-year Treasury’s yield has been Ma is anticipating a softer economic
cents on Sept. 27. More recently, one euro managers to find bargains, says Amit volatile, hitting its 52-week high of landing “where growth slows, but we
traded at $1.07—still a significant discount Wadhwaney, manager of Moerus World- 4.23% on Oct. 24 before moving down don’t go into a recession.”
to where it has traded historically. The yen wide Value (MOWNX). This is especially sharply to around 3.4% in early Decem- As a result, he prefers the front end of
has followed a similar pattern. so in emerging markets. Currently, Wadh- ber. Then it reversed course again and the yield curve, including the one-year
The dollar has been extremely strong, waney invests in Bancolombia (CIB), climbed to about 3.9% at the end of De- Treasury, which yields about 4.75%,
with foreign investors attracted by higher which trades for less than its book value cember, only to edge down to around more than a percentage point over the
payouts on U.S. Treasury bonds since the and has a 10% dividend yield. Moerus 3.6%. (Bond prices and yields move in 10-year note’s yield.
Federal Reserve started raising interest Worldwide was one of the few stock funds opposite directions.) “The extra yield pickup is worth it,
rates. As rates in the U.S. peak, foreign with a positive return last year, up 6.2%, Duration is a bond’s sensitivity to rather than locking into something lon-
small-caps should benefit from their cur- but it was down 10% in 2020 as pricey changes in interest rates. Taking on ger,” Ma says, noting that he sees fed
rencies strengthening against the dollar. tech stocks surged during the pandemic. greater duration can mean holding addi- funds peaking at about 5%.
“We’re still operating in a heavily Undiscovered foreign small-caps seem tional longer-term bonds in a portfolio. Ma views the 10-year Treasury as
discounted [currency] environment and particularly well suited for value investors. Those holdings are typically more sensi- “very expensive protection right now,”
heavily discounted stock valuations,” Manager David Iben of Kopernik Global tive to changes in interest rates than adding that “you’re giving up some yield,
says Jonathan Brodsky, co-manager of the All-Cap (KGGAX) can buy stocks of any shorter-term bonds. and you are taking on some risk that [10-
Harbor International Small Cap fund size, but currently favors small ones, espe- That has been a big issue for the past year] yields actually climb higher.”
(HIISX). “And when it comes to investing cially those in the Canadian gold mining year. In its effort to get inflation under Even if the Federal Reserve keeps rates
capital outside the U.S., there’s a lot of sector, such as Seabridge Gold (SA). control, the Federal Open Market Com- higher for longer, there is at least a silver
academic research that shows diversifica- This isn’t to say there aren’t excellent mittee boosted short-term rates seven lining for 10-year Treasuries. The yield is
tion benefits accrue more to small-cap foreign small-cap growth funds such as times last year, most recently to a target currently around 3.6%, compared with
stocks than large-cap stocks.” Stocks of Driehaus International Small Cap range of 4.25% to 4.5%. That applied some 1.6% 12 months ago, before the Fed
large foreign multinational companies Growth (DRIOX) and Manning & Na- pressure to bond prices. Berro notes the began hiking rates. “That [difference]
tend to behave like large U.S. ones. pier Rainier International Discovery “growing evidence that both inflation and also provides additional cushion if yields
Since Brodsky and his co-manager, (RISAX), but they’re out of favor. “Our growth are rolling over—and it should be were to rise or stay stable,” says Berro.
Waldemar Mozes, took over the Harbor portfolio started [2022] with an average translating into a weaker labor market The 10-year part of the yield curve still
fund in 2019, it has significantly outper- P/E of 40,” says Rob Forker, co-manager over time.” poses many risks, especially if inflation
formed its peers in Morningstar’s Foreign of Polen International Small Company She expects to see another rate hike or remains higher for longer. But it’s defi-
Small/Mid Value category, almost dou- Growth (PBIRX). Now, after a 36% de- two, which provides more visibility. “We nitely worth careful consideration—even
bling the category average’s 3% three-year cline in the past 12 months, its P/E is 21. B are getting more comfortable increasing as a small allocation. B
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 35
THE EC ONOMY
Broader measures favored by the Federal
Reserve are likely to show greater upward
pressure on labor costs than optimists expect.
D
Powell’s radar has been core services, and the National Federation of Inde-
excluding housing costs, which ac- pendent Business survey, says Joshua
id Dr. Pangloss earn writes in a client note. The Atlanta count for nearly one-third of the over- Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR.
his Ph.D. in eco- Fed’s measure of “sticky” prices was all CPI. Fans of this measure say the Such a pace of labor cost increases
nomics? It would up 6.7% from a year earlier, while the BLS’ method reflects the lagging effect would be consistent with inflation fall-
seem so. Cleveland Fed median CPI rose 6.9% of past increases and ignores the more ing near the Fed’s 2% target only if pro-
In Voltaire’s Can- in that span, showing little net im- recent decline in the pace of rent hikes ductivity were strong. But Neil Dutta,
dide, Dr. Pangloss provement over the past year. seen in online measures from Zillow. head of economics at Renaissance
declared it to be the Instead of just tossing out food and This “core-core” ex-housing series Macro Research, notes that productiv-
best of all possible worlds, notwith- energy, as the core CPI does, Cleve- is the new-new thing in inflation ity gains have been sluggish, only about
standing the evidence around him. land takes out the most volatile items tracking because it is driven by all- 1%, versus the 5% lift in labor costs.
And, to be sure, things are getting By Randall W. each month, while Atlanta focuses on important labor costs. Inflation opti- The risk for the Fed is that it may
better, the markets and the media Forsyth the most stable prices. Fed Chairman mists’ hopes were bolstered in a slow- pause its rate hikes while the economy
increasingly agree, at least in terms of Jerome Powell has cited these mea- ing in average hourly earnings to a actually is accelerating—the opposite of
inflation abating. sures in the past. Lewis notes that 4.6% rise in December from the prior last year, when it sharply boosted rates
But they may be putting a Pangloss- these data are a key reason he has year. But broader measures favored during a slowdown, he warns. Futures
ian shading on the improvement and cautioned against overconfidence in by the Fed are likely to show greater markets are pricing in quarter-point
ignoring underlying, yet still nettle- the central bank’s inflation fight. upward pressure on labor costs. increases at the next two FOMC meet-
some, aspects. Price pressures are Medical-care services have been a The Employment Cost Index is ings, to 4.75%-5%, which would mark
lessening, albeit from their worst lev- major factor in dampening inflation, at released only once a quarter, but is a the peak, per the CME FedWatch site.
els in four decades last year. Markets least as the Bureau of Labor Statistics far more comprehensive gauge that Overall financial conditions have
are anticipating not only a slowing in measures them. This category was up includes changes in the composition of eased markedly, Dutta points out, re-
the pace of Federal Reserve interest- just 0.1% in December, after respective the workforce and benefits in addition flecting the fall in Treasury yields,
rate hikes, but also cuts by the end of credit spreads in the mortgage and
2023—even though inflation will still corporate markets, higher stock prices,
be running above the central bank’s and particularly the dollar’s sharp
2% target, while forecasts of a reces- drop in recent months. The traditional
sion remain just forecasts, not fact. notion of monetary policy working
The latest reading on the consumer with “long and variable lags” is flawed,
price index matched economists’ opti- he says. Instead, the lags have become
mistic estimates. The widely watched “short and predictable,” working
inflation gauge actually dipped in De- through the financial markets. Reflect-
cember, by 0.1%, largely as a result of ing this, Dutta notes, housing stocks
a 9% plunge in gasoline prices. The are “ripping,” up almost 40% from
so-called core rate, which excludes their lows in mid-2022.
food and energy costs, was up 0.3%, Despite persistent inflation and
in line with forecasts. More to the lack of a recession—with record-tying
point, core CPI has slowed to a 5.7% unemployment of just 3.5%—the mar-
Healthcare workers
year-over-year rate of increase from a kets anticipate that the Fed will pause
Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg
on strike in New
40-year peak of 6.7% in September. York City: Medical hikes and then cut rates by year end.
costs are likely to
But Michael Lewis, head of the Free show a sharper
Based on this nonconsensus reading
Market consultancy, cautions that increase in the of the underlying data, the markets’
other measures that delve deeper in December producer optimism that has powered rallies in
price index, to be
the data “might tell another, less san- reported this bonds and stocks might be misplaced.
guine but more accurate, story,” he coming week. Sorry, Dr. Pangloss. B
36 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
MARKET WEEK
January 9 through January 13, 2023
Dow Jones Industrials S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
34,302.61
52-wk: -4.48% YTD: +3.49% Wkly: +2.00%
3999.09
52-wk: -14.24% YTD: +4.16% Wkly: +2.67%
11,079.16
52-wk: -25.61% YTD: +5.85% Wkly: +4.82%
$74.74
52-wk: -2.97% YTD: +0.25% Wkly: -1.37%
10%
Laggards Lead Bank on It
Many beaten-down technology shares surged Fourth-quarter results from banks including 8
on Monday, while the overall market declined. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America topped
The worst performers of 2022 were among the analysts’ expectations, sending shares higher. 6
biggest winners, including Tesla and Nvidia. Indexes ended the week solidly in the green.
4
-2
Positive Momentum Eyes on the CPI
Stocks rose in back-to-back broad rallies on December inflation data confirmed a slowing -4
Tuesday and Wednesday, fueled by optimism that pace of rising prices to end 2022. Stocks
the U.S. economy could achieve a “soft landing.” initially dipped on Thursday, then rallied -6
The Nasdaq gained 2.8% in two days. through the afternoon to close higher.
-8
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Close
Source: Barron’s Statistics
G
enerationally high ner, closing up 4.8%. Car prices are also too high. The
combination of falling product prices with and gravel supplier Martin Marietta Ma-
a strong labor market isn’t great news for terials comes in.
investors, because companies will have to Martin Marietta (MLM) is a producer of
pay more for workers but will receive less aggregates, the industry term for stone,
for what they sell. Profit margins “are going sand, and gravel, and it’s a pretty solid busi-
to compress,” says Brian Rauscher, head of ness. It has some natural barriers to entry—
global portfolio strategy at Fundstrat. it isn’t easy to find and start a new quarry—
“That’s a given.” and high regional market shares give players
Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ some pricing stability. It can weather both
head of equity and quantitative strategy, inflationary and deflationary environments,
expects the same. S&P 500 earnings esti- and despite the weakening economy, its out-
mates for 2023 are roughly 15% too high look for growth is improving.
“amid demand uncertainty and a tougher How is that possible? For starters, Martin
pricing environment,” she writes. Marietta has between 20% and 30% share of
She’s hunting for areas of the economy the markets it operates in, including Texas,
that can produce “more margin” and says Florida, Georgia, and Colorado, and aggre-
healthcare stocks are a good place to look. gates markets are largely local because it’s
BofA analysts favor stocks such as Boston too expensive to ship gravel long distances.
Scientific (BSX), Intuitive Surgical Rocks are dirt cheap, but pricing has been
(ISRG), and Tenet Healthcare (THC). moving up over time. In the third quarter,
Demand uncertainty is starting to show Martin Marietta realized $16.65 for a ton of
up, as well. Rauscher points out that new aggregate, up from $13.40 five years ago, an
orders—a leading indicator of demand— average annual gain of about 4%. Volumes at
are falling. The Institute for Supply Man- Martin Marietta have grown at an annual
agement’s index of new manufacturing rate of about 6.5% over that span, both or-
orders has been in negative territory for six ganically and through acquisition.
of the past seven months. Its index of new Nor does it matter if the U.S. economy
service orders slipped into negative terri- faces rising or falling inflation. Martin Mari-
IBKR charges
tory in December for the first time since etta has the ability to raise prices to offset
the spring of 2020. cost increases, but if inflation slows, it will
“There is going to be a pricing power is- pay less for the energy it uses to turn rocks
sue as we move forward…[so favor] compa- into sand and gravel. It uses a lot of energy,
nies with stickier margins,” says Rauscher.
He wants ones that can still raise prices, cut
costs effectively, or both.
so falling oil prices tend to mean better profit
margins over the short run.
Even better, Martin Marietta’s growth
margin loan rates 1
from
That could mean trouble for the stock isn’t fully dependent on the direction of the
market overall, despite the strong start to the U.S. economy. Residential construction
year. He recommends holding higher-quality might be slowing down as mortgage rates
companies with better balance sheets and rise, but nonresidential construction is set
4.83% to 5.83%
strong management teams. to boom, boosted by the Inflation Reduction
That’s a solid strategy for any market— Act, the Chips Act, and the Infrastructure
and it’s especially wise when prices start Investment and Jobs Act. All the new
to drop. spending amounts to hundreds of billions
of dollars in extra activity spread over a few
A Stock for All Seasons years in a business that approaches $1 tril-
Despite a solid start to 2023, the stock mar- lion annually in the U.S. It’s a nice bump to
ket could still get rocky. That’s where sand overall growth.
Vital Signs
Friday’s Week’s Week’s Friday’s Week’s Week’s
Close Change % Chg. Close Change % Chg.
DJ Industrials 34302.61 +672.00 +2.00 Barron’s Future Focus 869.46 +32.79 +3.92
DJ Transportation
DJ Utilities
14364.39
988.60
+488.20
+7.33
+3.52
+0.75
Barron’s Next 50
Barron’s 400
2269.11
976.74
+161.81
+36.70
+7.68
+3.90
ibkr.com/compareus
DJ 65 Stocks 11431.35 +247.80 +2.22 Last Week Week Earlier
DJ US Market 979.10 +27.78 +2.92 NYSE Advances 2,822 2,607
NYSE Comp. 15918.37 +378.63 +2.44 Declines 499 717
NYSE Amer Comp. 4275.54 +183.33 +4.48 Unchanged 48 45
S&P 500 3999.09 +104.01 +2.67 New Highs 256 201
S&P MidCap 2580.91 +90.96 +3.65 New Lows 28 79
Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with
S&P SmallCap 1238.88 +53.05 +4.47 Av Daily Vol (mil) 4,169.2 4,047.6 high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment.
Nasdaq 11079.16 +509.86 +4.82 Dollar (Finex spot index) 102.18 103.88
Value Line (arith.) 9170.02 +372.70 +4.24 T-Bond (CBT nearby futures) 130-00 129-07 Member - NYSE, FINRA, SIPC – [1] Margin Loan rate as of 12/15/2022. IB calculates the interest charged
Russell 2000 1887.03 +94.23 +5.26 Crude Oil (NYM light sweet crude) 79.86 73.77 on margin loans using the applicable rates for each interest rate tier listed on its website. Rates shown
Inflation KR-CRB (Futures Price Index) 275.91 264.82
apply to IBKR Pro clients only. Rates subject to change. For additional information on margin loan rates,
DJ US TSM Float 40282.76 +1196.72 +3.06
see ibkr.com/interest. 12-IB22-1589-HP
Gold (CMX nearby futures) 1918.40 1864.20
38 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Industry Action
Performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Industrials, ranked by weekly percent change.*
Technology 5.18%
Consumer Services 5.08
Basic Materials 4.82
Oil & Gas 3.07
Financials 2.76
Industrials 2.11
Consumer Goods 0.61
Utilities 0.46
THE S&P 500 IN ONE ETF Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
An outlook that solid doesn’t come The solution to all this is to go where
Visit www.sectorspdrs.com or call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF cheap, but the stock isn’t too dear. Martin others aren’t. That means preferring utili-
Marietta shares trade for roughly 20 times ties to consumer staples when looking to
estimated 2023 earnings. That’s a pre- play defense. The S&P Composite 1500
An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a mium to the S&P 500’s 16.5 times, but Staples Index is trading at about 21 times
prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF or visit www.sectorspdrs.com. Read the below the company’s 10-year average of 22 estimated 2023 earnings, according to
prospectus carefully before investing. times earnings. At an average multiple and FactSet. That’s roughly a 10% premium to
All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Sector ETF products are also subject to sector risks and non-diversification risks, which generally 2024 earnings that could reach $18 a its own history and a 30% premium to the
results in greater price fluctuations than the overall stock market. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
share, the stock could be trading near S&P 500 multiple. There is a long way to
The S&P 500 is an index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
$400 by the end of 2023. That’s up about fall if investors sour on staples stocks. “I
ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust. 13% from recent levels, not including a don’t want to own staples because of peak
dividend yield of about 0.7%. positioning and peak valuations,” adds
And if 2024 doesn’t turn out that well? Calvasina. “I want to be out of the staples
Even if things get rocky, investors will be when the market turns because they’re
left holding a stock that is insulated from going to get crushed.”
the worst of any downturn—and that can Utility stocks look much better. They
work in the long run. trade for about 19 times estimated 2023
That’s a stock to own no matter earnings—a premium to the market and
whether the road ahead is bumpy or about a 12% premium to their history, sim-
smooth. ilar to staples, but less than a 20% pre-
mium to the S&P. What’s more, the
Investing for Befuddlement
Puzzled. Look.
growth outlook for utilities is a little better
If 2022’s stock market could be described than it has been in the past because they
as brutal, 2023’s might best be described as are adding more renewable power genera-
befuddling. Thankfully, there is a portfolio tion to their portfolios and are able to earn
for that. a regulated rate of return on the new in-
What’s so befuddling? It’s not just that vestment, providing a boost to growth.
Your morning ritual just got better. there is uncertainty around inflation, “Guess what I want to own in a slug-
growth, profits, margins, and even Covid, gish economic backdrop?” asks Calvasina.
Introducing Barron's covers jigsaws,
which continues to linger around the “Anything with secular growth.”
sudoku and crossword puzzles. globe. It’s also that there’s no uncertainty That includes industrial stocks, which
about how experts view the market. All could get a boost thanks in part to all the
barrons.com/puzzles the talking heads believe the first half of new spending generated by the Inflation
2023 will be bumpy, with things looking Reduction Act, the Chips Act, and the In-
better by year end. “It’s a real uber-con- frastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
sensus,” says Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. Even energy firms have a place in the
equity strategy at RBC, who counts herself portfolio, thanks to more-disciplined man-
among the talking heads. agement teams, dividends, and buybacks,
Everyone thinking the same thing is and because many investors seem to want to
scary, and not simply because the consen- avoid them after a fantastic 2022. Funds
sus is bound to be wrong. It also means have been flowing out of energy ETFs for the
that investors end up positioned the same past few weeks. What’s more, “they proba-
way in the same sectors and stocks, and bly won’t blow you up,” adds Calvasina.
© 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 4E6049 that’s a recipe for volatility and disap- And that’s an attractive feature in a mar-
pointment as conditions change. ket this confusing. B
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 39
EUROPEAN TRADER E M E R G I N G M A R K E TS
Glencore Could Benefit Brazil’s Lula Shouldn’t
From China’s Reopening Expect Smooth Sailing
By Callum Keown tal, social, and governance, or ESG, con- By Craig Mellow have blocked roads in the past and are
cerns, with a number of institutional inves- assumed to be pro-Bolsonaro, stayed qui-
M A
ining and commodities trad- tors filing a shareholder resolution earlier mob of thousands sweeps past etly on the job. A snap survey by Brazil-
ing giant Glencore was one this month asking Glencore to explain how police to trash the seat of gov- ian pollster Datafolha showed 93% of the
of the FTSE 100’s top per- it fits in with the Paris Agreement and its ernment, and markets go…up? population against the riot. Law enforce-
formers last year, and it own net-zero commitment. Glencore said That’s what happened in ment arrested more than 700 alleged
could be set to repeat the trick in 2023. that it will publish its next climate report Brazil this past week. The iShares participants within days.
Glencore (ticker: GLEN.UK) was the in March to provide an update on progress MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund Bolsonaro himself is proving a pecu-
third-best performing stock in 2022, since its 2020 strategy. (ticker: EWZ) climbed 6% since rioters liarly hapless insurrection leader. He
behind defense giant BAE Systems At the other end of the ESG scale, swarmed Brasilia’s Congress and presi- hopped a flight to the U.S. two days be-
(BA.UK) and publisher Pearson (PSO), Glencore continues to invest in what it dential palace on Jan. 8. The yield on fore Lula’s Jan. 1 inauguration and the
climbing 47%, largely driven by record calls “key transition metals” such as cop- 10-year sovereign bonds shrank more expiration of his legal immunity. While
thermal coal prices. per, nickel, and cobalt, which it says will than half a percentage point to 12.4%. his acolytes smashed windows in
The miner’s exposure to coal is also support global decarbonization. And for good reason. Brazil’s event bears Brasilia, he was checking into an
what makes it an attractive proposition “Glencore’s copper and cobalt expo- extensive parallels with the U.S. insurrec- Orlando, Fla.–area hospital with abdom-
in 2023, while China’s reopening should sure remains attractive in the long term, tion a year and two days earlier—only Bra- inal pains, his wife reported.
push metals prices higher, adding to and the near-term upside offered by ther- zil’s elite united much more decisively to This hardly means that the 77-year-old
Glencore’s upside. Over the longer term, mal coal more than offsets the long-term defend their democracy afterward. Society Lula can expect four years of smooth sail-
its status as one of the world’s leading outlook at this point,” says BMO Capital seems inclined to follow for now. ing in his third term as president. The mili-
producers and marketers of copper leaves Markets analyst Alexander Pearce. He Like his role model Donald Trump, tary police, which waved the invaders
it well placed to benefit from the global has an Outperform rating on the stock, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro through without much resistance, remains
transition toward greener energy. with a £6.50 target price. diligently sowed the seeds for disorder a potential kernel of armed disorder, says
Record coal prices, largely a result of The company announced “top up” with baseless claims that electoral sys- Ryan Berg, director of the Americas pro-
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a subse- returns of $4.5 billion in the first half of tems were rigged against him. Like gram at the Center for Strategic and Inter-
quent natural-gas shortage helped Glen- 2022, through a special dividend and a $3 Trump, he lost narrowly, leaving a few national Studies. “The military itself is
core’s earnings jump by $10 billion to a billion share buyback program. In keeping supporters ready for violence. highly professional. The military police
record $18.9 billion in the six months to with Glencore’s strategy to return surplus Brazil looked much more vulnerable, are much more questionable,” he says.
June 2022. The company said about $8 capital to investors, there could be more not only because a military dictatorship Lula squeaked by Brazil’s closest elec-
billion of that increase came from its coal to come. “This narrative could build up yielded power just 37 years ago. New tion ever with a 50.9%-to-49.1% margin.
business. With coal prices remaining high, in the stock going into the full-year earn- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is, on His lack of legislative coattails indicates
Glencore’s full-year earnings next month ings,” Citi analysts said last month. They paper, outgunned politically. Bolsonaro’s that he was personally more popular than
could be another catalyst for the stock. have a Buy rating and a £7 price target. Liberal Party holds many more congres- his leftist policy platform, which he seems
Glencore is winding down its coal China’s reopening, as it shifts away sional seats and governorships than the to be leaning into nonetheless. “Brazil’s
assets. The company described its policy from its zero-Covid policy, should also Workers Party headed by Lula, as the political environment is deeply polarized,
as a “responsibly managed decline and benefit miners, though for how long is president is known. and its population highly distrusts political
stewardship of our coal business” at an less certain. J.P. Morgan analysts note These normally fractious power bro- institutions and the establishment,” says
investor day last month. that the risks mount into the second and kers threw partisanship aside in the face Christopher Garman, managing director
“Glencore’s sticking by thermal coal third quarters, citing potential Covid of insurrection, though. Bolsonaro allies, for the Americas at Eurasia Group.
has proved to be a major advantage over spikes and weaker iron-ore seasonality. who run Brazil’s two most populous Distrust extends to the media, Berg
its peers,” says Liberum analyst Ben Da- Glencore is one of the bank’s top mining states, Tarcisio de Freitas of São Paulo adds. Most Brazilians view the world
vis. He adds that “prices have the potential picks to play China’s reopening. and Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais, stood through social-media feeds that are
to remain elevated far above marginal cost Despite its bumper year of gains, the literally shoulder-to-shoulder with Lula highly partisan and less than scrupulous
of production in the long term.” Davis has stock still looks cheap, trading at 6.5 to condemn the rioters. “Demonstrations about the truth. All that creates tinder
a Buy rating on the stock with a 6.70 times 2023 earnings estimates, below the lose their legitimacy from the moment that the next economic downturn or ma-
pound sterling ($8.17) target price, 23% industry average of 11 times, according there is violence,” de Freitas tweeted. jor scandal could ignite. It will all sound
above Monday’s price. The stock is up to FactSet data. While Glencore is some- Support that the invaders looked for quite familiar to U.S. citizens, though. For
10% since this column last wrote about what at the mercy of commodities prices, outside politics also fizzled. Soldiers now, Latin America’s giant is defending
the company, in mid-August. there’s enough to suggest that this under- stepped in to quell the uprising, not its democracy vigorously. Good news for
The policy has led to some environmen- valued stock is worth digging into. B mount a coup d’état. Truck drivers, who everyone. B
40 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
T H E ST RIKING PRIC E
Rather than buying this or that stock in anticipa-
tion of how investors react to the Fed or the next
avalanche of data, consider taking a step back.
260
30
By Steven M. Sears man Sachs, who arguably know more than 195
most investors most of the time, aren’t ex-
A
re we data dependent—or data actly signaling cheerfulness. Even as the 23
delusional? firm’s analysts strain to find good news 130
Right now, the stability of the around U.S. companies, Goldman is laying
stock market boils down to how off 3,200 staff members. Many other big 16 65
investors view recent economic data sug- companies are also reducing head count, F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
gesting that inflationary pressures might which few do when they are optimistic Daily Values Source: CBOE Source: McMillan Analysis Corp.
be easing. about the future.
If you believe the data, the market’s All of this adds up to one conclusion:
recent gains are legitimate. The Federal You shouldn’t rush to act. Rather than SPX Skew NDX Skew
Reserve might raise rates less aggressively, buying this or that stock in anticipation of Implied volatility % Implied volatility %
which would help secure those gains and how investors react to the Fed or the ava- 14% 12%
perhaps even create a meaningful founda- lanche of data that will hit the market, con- 13 11
tion for a recovery rally. sider taking a step back.
12
Conversely, perhaps you believe that In the absence of a clear trend, we 10
more information is needed beyond a recently suggested that investors consider 11
9
smattering of bullish data points—and that renting stocks in the options market by 10
the market’s gains might be evidence of buying calls. The approach risks less 8
9
widespread delusional thinking. money than buying the associated stock, 7
8
Unlike extreme stock declines, which and that has merit in a time of risk.
7 6
frighten most people, hardly anyone ever But there is another approach, too.
complains about rising prices, even if the If you have stocks that you want to buy, 6 5
moves are extremely unusual. Last week’s think about trading cash-secured put op- F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
700-point gain in the Dow Jones Indus- tions. The strategy entails reserving the Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy
trial Average looks like just such a socially amount of money needed to buy the stock Skew indicates whether the options market expects a stock-market advance or decline. It measures the difference between the implied
volatility of puts and calls that are 10% out of the money and expire in three months. Higher readings are bearish.
acceptable type of volatility. in your brokerage account and then selling
Rather than getting into a high-minded the associated put.
debate, let’s focus on some “known Consider a Moderna (ticker: MRNA) Week’s Most Active
knowns” that are hard to dismiss. They trade as a way to monetize the possibility Company Symbol Tot Vol Calls Puts Avg Tot Vol IV %ile Ratio
should give investors even more reason that we are living in an age of viral pan- Apexigen APGN 4545 3627 918 4 100 1136.3
Amryt Pharma AMYT 10357 387 9970 16 1 647.3
to patiently wait for the market to reveal demics that might require new medical Broadwind BWEN 22154 19862 2292 44 100 503.5
more of itself before reaching any firm treatments. BigBear.ai BBAI 31535 19426 12109 244 98 129.2
conclusion about what 2023 holds in store. With the drugmaker at $192, the Febru- Albireo Pharma ALBO 28957 1698 27259 288 42 100.5
Altus Power AMPS 10451 9929 522 204 71 51.2
Corporate earnings season has just be- ary $170 put could be sold for about $4.50. Sotera Health SHC 40962 17409 23553 816 83 50.2
gun. Investor expectations are dour, and If the stock is above the strike price at expi- Duck Creek Technologies DCT 44050 39441 4609 1004 59 43.9
it is hard to know whether sentiment is ration, you get to keep the put premium. Telefonica Brasil VIV 3763 3568 195 96 13 39.2
CinCor Pharma CINC 42589 9331 33258 1552 9 27.4
calibrated with reality. Extrapolating mes- The great risk is if the stock falls far below
Party City PRTY 109547 97357 12190 4384 100 25.0
sages from earnings is also arguably more the put strike, which would obligate inves- Biora Therapeutics BIOR 31227 20308 10919 1512 95 20.7
difficult this go-round than in the past. tors to buy the stock at the strike price, or CEMEX CX 26313 25468 845 1492 52 17.6
For one thing, the current Fed leaders adjust the position to avoid assignment. Euronav EURN 9811 7627 2184 616 75 15.9
Cutera CUTR 3421 1973 1448 248 32 13.8
have become incredibly skilled at weap- During the past 52 weeks, Moderna Oak Street Health OSH 73510 45044 28466 5620 53 13.1
onizing words and compiling meeting min- has ranged from $115.03 to $217.25. B IAC Inc. IAC 32141 12899 19242 2492 76 12.9
utes to keep investors on edge. The Fed’s Voyager Therapeutics VYGR 4516 3744 772 376 3 12.0
Athersys Corp. ATHX 6245 5794 451 548 32 11.4
rate-setting committee concludes a two- Steven M. Sears is the president and chief oper-
Briacell Therapeutics BCTX 11159 10875 284 1128 17 9.9
day meeting on Feb. 1. Expectations are ating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized
high that rates will rise another quarter asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm This table of the most active options this week, as compared to average weekly activity – not just raw volume. The idea is that the unusually heavy trading in these options might be a predictor of
corporate activity – takeovers, earnings surprises, earnings pre-announcements, biotech FDA hearings or drug trial result announcements, and so forth. Dividend arbitrage has been eliminated. In
percentage point. has a position in the options or underlying securi- short, this list attempts to identify where heavy speculation is taking place. These options are likely to be expensive in comparison to their usual pricing levels. Furthermore, many of these
situations may be rumor-driven. Most rumors do not prove to be true, so one should be aware of these increased risks if trading in these names
At the same time, the leaders of Gold- ties mentioned in this column. Ratio is the Tot Vol divided by Avg Tot Vol. IV %ile is how expensive the options are on a scale from 0 to 100. Source: McMillan Analysis
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 41
N
atural gas has seen a shaky start through December.
to 2023, with U.S. prices falling U.S. natural-gas futures for February
to their lowest level in more than delivery settled at $3.639 per million BTUs
a year just halfway through the on Jan. 10, the lowest price for a front-
winter season, typically a period of high month contract since Dec. 30, 2021.
demand for the heating fuel.
There is “nothing unusual in U.S. gas
demand versus what we have seen in the
Demand for the commodity in China
was “not picking up, due to the carbon
restrictions” there, says EY’s Adomaitis.
SOMETIMES THE BEAR GETS YOU
past few years,” says Saulius Adomaitis, The nation has pledged to achieve carbon
global oil and gas leader at professional neutrality by 2060.
services network EY, pointing out that U.S. The “China factor” is something to
prices are “very much affected” by what’s watch, observes Adomaitis. If China’s
TMF TMV
happening outside the country. economy really reopens in the second
Natural-gas futures traded on the New quarter following the nation’s Covid-19 DAILY 3X LEVERAGED
York Mercantile Exchange have fallen 62%
from last year’s peak close of $9.68 per
related shutdowns, and if that “coincides
with the need to replenish Europe gas re-
ETFs FROM DIREXION Daily 20+ Year Daily 20+ Year
Treasury Treasury
million British thermal units on Aug. 22, serves...during spring and summer,” that
with about 2½ months left in the winter
heating season. Prices lost over 35% in
may lead to a significant increase in gas
prices and volatility in Europe—and that Call 877-437-9363
or go to direxion.com
BULL BEAR
December, the largest monthly drop since would have a “spillover effect” in the U.S. 3X S H A R E S 3X SHARES
December 2018. Going forward, “we need to be mindful
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last that winter is not over,” Adomaitis says.
year led to major concerns that Europe In the U.S., the winter heating season runs
would see a shortage in supplies of the fuel. through March.
The International Energy Agency estimated The U.S. might also be moving closer to
that 45% of the European Union’s 2021 gas a ban on gas stoves, as studies show respi- An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A
imports came from Russia. ratory and select cancer risks linked to Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a
Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 877-437-9363 or visit our website at www.direxion.com. A Fund’s
The war will “continue to restrict sup- their use and raise concerns over their
prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
ply of natural gas (and many other critical contribution to global warming.
commodities) for years to come,” says Mi- California already has restricted new Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which means they are riskier than alternatives
chael Rosen, chief investment officer at gas hookups, with a full ban on the sale which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods
longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand
Angeles Investments. “Alternative supplies of appliances to go into effect in 2030, leverage risk and who actively manage their investments.
are being developed, but it will take years and a phaseout of gas appliances is also
for Europe to replace Russian gas, so price happening in the United Kingdom and Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in each Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is
non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Funds’ concentrating their investments in a particular industry, sector,
volatility is likely to remain a feature of the continental Europe, says Angeles Invest-
or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. The use of derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps are
market for some time.” ments’ Rosen. subject to market risks that may cause their price to fluctuate over time. Risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding
Still, Europe has reduced demand In the medium term, natural-gas appli- and Market Volatility Risk, Leverage Risk, Market Risk, Aggressive Investment Techniques Risk, Counterparty Risk, Intra-Day
through conservation, he says. The warm ances are likely to be phased out, he says. Investment Risk, Other Investment Companies (including ETFs) Risk, and risks specific to U.S. Government Securities.
weather cut it further, helping Europe fill its He points out, however, that gas has Additional risks include, for the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Bull 3X Shares, Daily Index Correlation Risk, and for the Direxion
Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares, Daily Inverse Index Correlation Risk, and risks related to Shorting and Cash
storage tanks “to capacity.” Also, he adds, a lower carbon impact than other carbon- Transactions. A security backed by the U.S. Treasury or the full faith and credit of the United States is guaranteed only as to
the very high natural-gas prices in the sum- based fuels, so it will probably continue the timely payment of interest and principal when held to maturity. The market prices for such securities are not guaranteed
mer and fall “provided an arbitrage for U.S. to be a “significant energy source for the and will fluctuate. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of
producers of [liquefied natural gas] to ship foreseeable future.” each Fund.
more to Europe.” However, in the decades ahead, “car- Distributor: Foreside Funds Services, LLC
The recent decline in the U.S. dollar, in bon-based energy will be replaced by
which natural gas is priced, contributed to renewable, or noncarbon-based,
the downturn in prices, as well, Rosen sources,” Rosen says. B
42 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
T
Starwood no longer owns any MFA
shares. he happiest place on
Earth has become a
BY ED LIN meant to remove any potential bias SpringWorks Therapeu- destination for activist
A
that a company insider may have from tics (SWTX) investors hoping to
kamai Technologies material nonpublic knowledge of com- OrbiMed Advisors lowered its posi- provide magic to its
stock tumbled in 2022, pany business. tion in the clinical-stage pharma- slumping stock price.
and as the year was com- Since December, Leighton has paid Akamai CEO Tom ceutical firm to 4,985,000 shares. Trian Fund Manage-
ing to an end, CEO Tom $501,000 for 5,847 shares, an aver- Leighton has been ObriMed sold 540,926 Spring- ment’s Nelson Peltz is the latest
Leighton set up an auto- age price of $85.68 each, through the buying up shares Works shares at prices ranging to enter the fray at Walt Disney
mated plan to buy shares plan, according to filings with the of the software from $22.26 to $27.71 each from (ticker: DIS) after unveiling a 35-
of the internet-infrastruc- Securities and Exchange Commis- firm through an Dec. 13, 2022, through Jan. 4, 2023. page presentation late on Wednes-
ture and security-software company. sion. Those purchases include 1,753 automated plan. Following the sales, OrbiMed holds day that criticized the company’s
Akamai stock (ticker: AKAM) shares purchased so far in 2023 for He has bought 8% of SpringWorks’ tradable stock. cost discipline. Peltz also made the
dropped 28% last year. Quarterly $150,400, an average price of $85.80 $500,000 of stock The SpringWorks sales were the case for a seat on the entertainment-
earnings throughout the year were each. since December. first reported by OrbiMed since it and-media giant’s board, which he
mixed. Leighton told Barron’s in Akamai declined to make Leighton sold nearly 154,000 shares in Sep- charged had “consistently” failed
August that he was “really excited” available for comment because the tember 2022 at an average per- at succession planning.
about the opportunity in both security company is in a pre-earnings quiet share price of nearly $32, reducing It was once considered almost
and computing. But shares continued period. The company noted that dur- its SpringWorks interest to 9.3%. unthinkable that activists would
to slide afterward. ing its Nov. 8 third-quarter earnings J.P. Morgan analyst Anupam Rama target a company of Disney’s size—
Leighton established a Rule 10b5-1 call, Leighton announced his trading cut his December 2023 price target its market cap is close to $200 bil-
plan on Nov. 10, through which he set plan to buy $3 million of Akamai stock on SpringWorks stock to $53 from lion—and prestige. But volatile mar-
parameters, including volume and over the next six months. “[M]y confi- $86 in a Nov. 8 note, citing adjusted kets and a series of missteps have
price, to purchase stock. Trades are dence in Akamai’s future prospects for launch timelines and decreased made it easier for activists to argue
automatically executed when the growth and success has never been peak-sales estimates, and changes for change to Disney shareholders.
parameters are met. The devices are higher,” he said at the time. B in share count and revision of oper- In the most stunning recent ex-
ating expenses. Rama still has an ample, long-serving CEO Bob Iger
Overweight rating on SpringWorks returned to the top spot in Novem-
stock. ber, replacing Bob Chapek, his re-
placement. Chapek’s tenure was a
American Airlines Group Bed Bath & Beyond Tesla Rivian Automotive
AAL (NASD) • $17.02 • 2.84 BBBY (NASD) • $3.66 • 2.35 TSLA (NASD) • $122.40 • 9.34 RIVN (NASD) • $16.45 • 0.05
The airline said December-quarter revenue rose After the home-goods retailer reported a one-third The electric car maker cut model prices by as After the electric-truck maker missed production
more than 16%. It expects earnings per share of drop in November-quarter sales, Bloomberg said much as 20%. Fearing for its earnings, several targets, The Wall Street Journal reported the de-
around $1.15, double the Wall Street forecast. bankruptcy planning had begun. analysts cut their ratings or target prices. parture of several executives.
The charts record the net change in share price, the high, low and closing trades, and share volume for companies with noteworthy stock activity last week. In addition, the graphs depict last week’s daily price activity in detail. The dotted line on some graphs denotes the stock’s 200-day moving average; lack of a moving average means the shares have traded for less than
that time period. If the close from the current week is lower than a year ago the graph will be presented in red. If the close from the current week is higher than a year ago then the graph will be presented in green.
44 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
W I N N E R S & LO S E R S
Saturday Inbox: Sign up for the
Market Lab Newsletter every Saturday
at Barrons.com/newsletters
NYSE Biggest % Movers NYSE Most Active NYSE American Most Active Nasdaq Most Active
Winners Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change
SOS(SOS) 1752 6.85 +3.40 +98.6 BluescapeOppsAcqn(BOAC) 3014 4479.3 9.76 –0.07 CanFiteBiopharm(CANF) 402 671.8 5.68 –0.61 MultiMetaVerse(MMV) 50879 12049.5 2.92 –8.71
Carvana(CVNA) 209570 7.02 +2.61 +59.2 AscendantDigA(ACDI) 6479 2848.4 10.35 +0.03 FirstLightAcqnA(FLAG) 770 507.6 10.20 +0.06 AmrytPharma(AMYT) 20308 9194.1 14.72 +7.72
QuantumScape(QS) 45496 8.30 +2.66 +47.2 PontemA(PNTM) 12148 1360.9 10.16 +0.03 AdaraAcqnA(ADRA) 742 473.6 9.98 –0.23 ALSPOrchidI A(ALOR) 1920 2993.0 10.29 +0.02
IndependenceContr(ICD) 1280 4.56 +1.41 +44.8 WarburgPincusI-B A(WPCB) 5224 1120.9 10.15 +0.04 inTEST(INTT) 411 189.0 13.92 +2.51 GlblBlockchain(GBBK) 895 2880.7 10.13 +0.03
Compass(COMP) 17696 3.60 +1.09 +43.4 SouthportAcqnA(PORT) 969 929.0 10.25 +0.06 AdamsRes(AE) 214 155.3 48.70 +10.06 IndlTechII A(ITAQ) 1716 2356.8 10.27 +0.05
Hyliion(HYLN) 6293 3.06 +0.89 +41.0 Supernova III A(STRE) 2983 919.6 10.11 +0.02 EvansBancorp(EVBN) 209 144.4 39.34 +1.02 RF Acqn A(RFAC) 479 1743.5 10.16 +0.03
ADC Therap(ADCT) 7865 5.00 +1.45 +40.8 twoA(TWOA) 2595 881.8 10.11 +0.02 CoreMoldingTech(CMT) 196 142.8 13.71 +0.71 MontereyCapA(MCAC) 794 1539.8 10.10 +0.05
VirginGalactic(SPCE) 88213 5.19 +1.50 +40.7 PyrophyteAcqn(PHYT) 1666 788.9 10.36 0.00 CaledoniaMining(CMCL) 250 80.9 15.44 +1.88 WorldwideWebbA(WWAC) 1014 1537.0 10.22 +0.04
ApolloStratII A(APGB) 11946 738.7 10.08 +0.02 RileyExpln(REPX) 347 76.3 34.96 +6.78 IXAcqnA(IXAQ) 1154 1422.8 10.17 +0.04
Losers TrineIIAcqnA(TRAQ) 671 694.6 10.29 +0.02 ArenaGroup(AREN) 251 70.7 8.38 –0.03 CresceraCapA(CREC) 3403 1368.6 10.31 +0.05
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
BlueRiverA(BLUA) 3663 679.8 10.12 +0.01 Mallinckrodt(MNK) 484 66.8 7.80 +0.20 TLGY Acqn A(TLGY) 998 1356.9 10.33 +0.03
AMTD Digital(HKD) 36141 11.04 –11.90 –51.9 ForestRoadII A(FRXB) 4403 597.2 10.08 +0.03 DecisionPointSys(DPSI) 369 65.6 10.50 +0.58 FatProjectsAcqn(FATP) 1798 1354.8 10.20 +0.02
KnotOffshore(KNOP) 7374 6.39 –3.52 –35.5 InfiniteAcqnA(NFNT) 1976 580.9 10.29 +0.07 Birks(BGI) 226 58.5 7.49 –0.29 VoyagerTherap(VYGR) 8041 1253.5 10.78 +3.82
RayonierAdvMatls(RYAM) 7617 6.71 –2.29 –25.4 IntegratedRailA(IRRX) 1626 545.5 10.28 –0.00 IvanhoeElectric(IE) 1139 37.0 14.59 +2.27 DuetAcqnA(DUET) 995 1246.2 10.19 +0.04
Vapotherm(VAPO) 975 1.95 –0.59 –23.2 KensingtonCapV A(KCGI) 2058 538.6 10.23 +0.01 InfuSystems(INFU) 249 34.4 9.69 +0.55 FTACEmeraldA(EMLD) 4934 1169.6 10.10 +0.04
VerticalAerospace(EVTL) 2217 2.66 –0.46 –14.7 ValensSemicon(VLN) 7445 504.2 5.15 +0.15 MAG Silver(MAG) 2227 4.5 16.23 –0.49 SoundPointA(SPCM) 1194 1150.3 10.41 +0.00
TurkcellIletism(TKC) 2072 4.35 –0.73 –14.4 KnotOffshore(KNOP) 7374 495.1 6.39 –3.52 GencorInds(GENC) 60 2.9 10.84 +0.10 AnthemisDigA(ADAL) 1755 1055.7 10.31 +0.02
CharahSolutions(CHRA) 177 6.56 –0.91 –12.2 ConcordAcqnIIA(CNDA) 887 437.1 9.96 –0.04 EvolutionPetrol(EPM) 1017 2.9 6.93 –0.10 Ent4.0TechAcqnA(ENTF) 1077 967.2 10.33 +0.03
Chico'sFas(CHS) 16939 4.63 –0.63 –12.0 Euronav(EURN) 43912 432.1 15.01 –0.64 BarHarborBkshs(BHB) 122 2.2 32.08 +0.15 AtlCoastal II A(ACAB) 1224 941.2 10.24 0.00
SculptorAcqnIA(SCUA) 749 421.9 10.32 +0.06 FriedmanInds(FRD) 101 –1.8 10.50 +0.54 PatriaLatAm(PLAO) 1330 871.8 10.41 +0.05
NYSE American Biggest % Movers By Share Volume By Share Volume By Share Volume
Winners Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. PartyCity(PRTY) 539624 0.35 +0.17 +94.8 Zomedica(ZOM) 65356 0.25 +0.02 +6.9 BedBath(BBBY) 996905 3.66 +2.35 +179.4
AirIndustries(AIRI) 87 5.76 +1.38 +31.4 FordMotor(F) 304174 12.72 +0.14 +1.1 B2Gold(BTG) 55841 4.18 +0.26 +6.6 Tesla(TSLA) 891233 122.40 +9.34 +8.3
IndonesiaEnergy(INDO) 1413 6.41 +1.40 +27.9 BankofAmerica(BAC) 249171 35.23 +0.82 +2.4 Tellurian(TELL) 42958 2.01 +0.22 +12.3 Amazon.com(AMZN) 406491 98.12 +12.04 +14.0
AdamsRes(AE) 214 48.70 +10.06 +26.0 NIO(NIO) 211327 11.80 +1.43 +13.8 AultAlliance(AULT) 35255 0.14 +0.01 +7.7 Apple(AAPL) 333229 134.76 +5.14 +4.0
RileyExpln(REPX) 347 34.96 +6.78 +24.1 Carvana(CVNA) 209570 7.02 +2.61 +59.2 UraniumEner(UEC) 28511 3.94 +0.03 +0.8 AdvMicroDevices(AMD) 271062 71.00 +7.04 +11.0
inTEST(INTT) 411 13.92 +2.51 +22.0 Carnival(CCL) 207002 10.51 +1.31 +14.2 DenisonMines(DNN) 28314 1.35 +0.13 +10.7 Arrival(ARVL) 266892 0.63 +0.43 +217.3
SifcoInd(SIF) 44 2.66 +0.46 +20.9 AT&T(T) 172045 19.55 +0.02 +0.1 Globalstar(GSAT) 22645 1.48 +0.09 +6.5 AmerAirlines(AAL) 238413 17.02 +2.84 +20.0
StandardLithium(SLI) 6133 3.70 +0.58 +18.6 Transocean(RIG) 164930 5.66 +0.76 +15.5 Cybin(CYBN) 16780 0.45 +0.06 +14.2 NVIDIA(NVDA) 223967 168.99 +20.40 +13.7
IvanhoeElectric(IE) 1139 14.59 +2.27 +18.4 AMC Ent(AMC) 151139 5.06 +1.21 +31.4 CamberEnergy(CEI) 12992 1.90 +0.11 +6.1 SoFiTech(SOFI) 216136 5.44 +0.82 +17.7
Avaya(AVYA) 141504 0.28 +0.07 +33.7 EquinoxGold(EQX) 12130 4.16 +0.16 +4.0 Lucid(LCID) 171944 8.15 +1.79 +28.1
Losers Alibaba(BABA) 140499 117.01 +9.61 +8.9 Senseonics(SENS) 11347 1.13 +0.07 +6.6 FaradayFuture(FFIE) 171595 0.50 +0.18 +55.3
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
ItauUnibanco(ITUB) 139139 5.03 +0.25 +5.2 GranTierraEner(GTE) 11245 0.93 +0.08 +9.0 OpendoorTech(OPEN) 157233 1.66 +0.51 +44.3
RaMedicalSys(RMED) 3713 3.83 –2.58 –40.2 PalantirTech(PLTR) 136286 6.96 +0.56 +8.8 CheniereEnergy(LNG) 10450 156.51 +13.63 +9.5 Rivian(RIVN) 154629 16.45 +0.05 +0.3
CanFiteBiopharm(CANF) 402 5.68 –0.61 –9.8 Ambev(ABEV) 132461 2.71 0.00 0.0 NewGold(NGD) 10320 1.10 +0.01 +0.9 Intel(INTC) 150977 30.11 +1.38 +4.8
GrupoSimec(SIM) 7 32.70 –3.23 –9.0 LufaxHolding(LU) 129996 2.74 +0.58 +26.9 RingEnergy(REI) 8293 2.42 +0.11 +4.8 WarnerBrosA(WBD) 143591 13.14 +1.82 +16.1
BM Tech(BMTX) 206 5.11 –0.42 –7.6 NuHoldings(NU) 125338 3.68 +0.12 +3.4 Ur-Energy(URG) 8022 1.26 +0.06 +5.0 Alphabet A(GOOGL) 142814 92.12 +4.78 +5.5
Barnwell(BRN) 202 2.68 –0.22 –7.6 Pfizer(PFE) 124983 47.85 –3.07 –6.0 ChinaPharma(CPHI) 7954 0.11 +0.01 +11.0 MetaPlatforms(META) 133892 136.98 +6.96 +5.4
TailwindAcqnA(TWND) 90 8.68 –0.63 –6.8 BigBear.ai(BBAI) 123458 2.39 +1.63 +214.5 EnergyFuels(UUUU) 7832 6.99 +0.59 +9.2 Microsoft(MSFT) 131643 239.23 +14.30 +6.4
FG(FGH) 32 2.35 –0.17 –6.7 WellsFargo(WFC) 120195 44.22 +1.42 +3.3 TasekoMines(TGB) 7270 1.84 +0.17 +10.2 BioraTherap(BIOR) 120712 4.27 +2.21 +107.3
NewFoundGold(NFGC) 800 3.92 –0.16 –3.9 GinkgoBioworks(DNA) 117172 1.86 +0.34 +22.4 AsensusSurg(ASXC) 7143 0.60 +0.13 +28.5 TilrayBrands(TLRY) 118213 3.17 +0.22 +7.5
Includes Common shares only. All figures reflect activity for the most-recent five-day trading week. Share volume figures are expressed in thousands. Volume percentage leaders exclude stocks with average daily volume of fewer than 5,000 shares or priced under $5.
Average volume is based on 65 trading days. Volume figures do not reflect extended trading hours. a-Stock has not been in existence or not been traded for 65 consecutive sessions. S-Stock split or stock dividend amounting to 10% or more. X-Ex-dividend
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 45
R E S EA RCH REPORTS
For a look back at more analyst
research and reports, go online to
Barrons.com/researchreports
or other services to Pick in the sector for 2023....Even in a ating due to [industry] consolidation,
the companies being less constructive outlook for energy, commodity input costs rolling over,
analyzed.
the stock should outperform. And if and the possibility of very accretive Insider Transactions Ratio
the fears of a massive global recession acquisitions—namely Mattress
32
prove unfounded, XOM’s strategic Firm—we are adding TPX to Wed- Bearish
pivot to high-margin products could bush’s Best Ideas List and raising our
really pay off in cash flow and margin target price to $45 from $30, or 16 24
expansion. Despite an 80% increase times our estimated earnings per Ratio = 16
in the stock price in 2022, we see share for 2023, a modest premium to 16
Exxon Mobil trading at only a modest its long-term average of 15 times.
premium to the U.S. oil and gas sec- 8
tor, and at a discount to offshore Bullish
peers. Volkswagen 0
VOW3-Germany J F M A M J J A S O N D J
Outperform • Price 127.66 euros on Jan. 11 Ratio of Insiders Sales to Buys. Readings under 12:1 are Bullish. Those over 20:1 are Bearish. The total top 20 sales and buys are
International Flavors & by RBC Capital Markets 303,607,847 and 18,859,515 respectively; Source: Thomson Reuters
Fragrances
IFF-NYSE Worldwide, the VW Group sold 2.21
Buy • Price $115.29 on Jan. 11 million vehicles in Q4/22, 0.9% higher
by UBS sequentially, and 14.3% higher year over improvement. Premium brands (Audi, target, to $55, from $80.
year. Western Europe (as determined Porsche) accounted for 35%. Our stock
by the five largest countries reporting), price target is 281 euros ($305.14). [VW
IFF [is] trading at a slight discount saw an 18% increase y/y. Sales of BEVs also has shares traded over the counter AutoNation
to its historical average and a 15% [battery electric vehicles] improved in the U.S., under VWAGY and other AN-NYSE
discount to peers, [indicating] a lack dramatically sequentially in Western symbols.] Buy • Price $115.47 on Jan. 11
of market confidence in the com- Europe in the quarter, but declined in by Benchmark
pany’s ability to deliver on targeted China, likely owing to lockdowns. VW
growth and synergies from the [Nu- reported selling 205,800 BEVs globally Cutera
trition & Biosciences] transaction. in the period, versus 149,300 in Q3, CUTR-Nasdaq Auto Nation’s returns to shareholders
We believe that sentiment is at a bot- 117,100 in Q2, and 98,100 in Q1, when Buy • Price $27.79 on Jan. 11 have been at the top of the comparable
tom, and could start to improve as it saw a sharp decline from the 158,300 by Maxim Group dealer group’s. It has reduced share
IFF delivers on its plan to achieve posted in Q4/21. Europe (increasing to count by 40% over the past two years,
growth, pricing, and margin/return 140,200 in Q4 from 83,100 in Q3) was continues to invest in AutoNation USA,
targets. We also see 2023 earnings as responsible for all of the sequential Although 4Q preliminary revenue was and recently completed the acquisition
largely derisked, following the pre- improvement, [probably aided] by in- disappointing, we remain bullish on of CIG Financial, marking the entrance
liminary guidance provided in De- centives that expired at year end. China the company’s AviClear [laser technol- into captive financing. While we have
cember. We believe a gradual recov- BEV sales, meanwhile, declined to ogy for treatment of moderate to severe lowered our estimates owing to reduced
ery through 2024 should restore 43,000 in Q4 from 49,200 in Q3, al- acne] and believe that the full commer- used-vehicle assumptions and higher
confidence, potentially lifting IFF’s though 2022’s 155,700 bested 2021’s cial launch during the quarter will sup- floorplan interest costs, performance
multiple. This could push the stock 82,685. Interestingly, volume BEVs (the port higher gross margins and revenue should benefit from positive industry
higher. We see 2023 targeted divest- VW, SEAT, and Skoda brands) were growth in 2023. However, we are low- trends, cost containment, and a lower
ments as a key to reducing leverage, responsible for 65% of the sequential ering our estimates and stock price share count. Price target: $185.
46 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Barron's 50-Stock Average 59 Dow Jones Per Share Values 58 Mutual Funds 55 Week In Stocks 58
DATA
Cash Track 55 Exchange Traded Portfolios 54 N.Y. Stock Exchange 46 Weekly Bond Statistics 60
Charting the Market 43 Federal Reserve Data Bank 60 Nasdaq National Market 50 Winners & Losers Stocks 44
Coming Earnings 59 Foreign Exchange 59 New Corporate Listings 58
Conference Call Calendar 59 Gold & Silver Prices 60 New Highs & Lows 61
Delta Tactical Sentiment 59 Gold Mining Index 60 NYSE Half-Hourly Volume 58
Distributions & Offerings 58 Indexes P/Es & Yields 58 Other Market Indexes 57
Dividend Boosts - Reductions 61 Initial Public Offerings 58 Pulse of the Economy 59
Dividend Ex-Payment Dates 60 Investor Sentiment Readings 58 Stock Splits - Special Dividends 60
DJ Averages 57 Key Foreign Market Indexes 53 Stock Volume 58
DJ U.S. Total Market Industry Groups 59 Market Lab 57 Trading Diary 57
Contact Us
Dow Jones Averages 57 Money Rates, U.S. & Foreign 59 Vital Signs 37 For queries, email us at
Statistics from January 9-13, 2023 memberservices@dowjones.com
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE LIST - NEW HIGHS - NEW LOWS
–52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div
High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt.
21.62 15.67 AmericaMovil AMX 1.7 15 20.51 +1.18.4414 10.14 9.70 AresAcqnA AAC ... 47 10.14 +0.03 ... 36.11 25.37 BP BP 3.8 dd 35.56 +1.10.3604 72.72 46.10 BoydGaming BYD .0 11 58.42 +2.20 .15
A 21.53 15.83 AmericaMovil A AMOV 3.1 15 20.21 +1.17.4414 16.48 9.90 AresCommRealEst ACRE11.4 13 11.57 +0.76 .02 26.08 4.85 BP Prudhoe BPT 28.7 4 12.18 +1.84.2974 54.21 40.52 Brady BRC 1.8 17 51.55 +3.66 .23
39.10 24.01 AmericanAssets AAT 4.6 39 27.64 +0.60 .32 86.06 53.15 AresMgmt ARES 3.1 88 77.47 +8.34 .61 34.00 5.75 BRC BRCC ... dd 6.75 +0.70 ... 6.64 3.41 BraemarHtls BHR 4.2 cc 4.79 +0.41 .05
52.83 33.75 AAR AIR ... 19 49.25 +3.16 ... 11.96 6.36 AmericanAxle AXL ... cc 8.83 +0.19 ... 42.15 31.26 Argan AGX 2.6 26 38.65 +1.67 .25 4.47 1.27 BRF BRFS ... dd 1.60 –0.07 ... 14.55 5.94 BrandywineRealty BDN 11.6 40 6.55 +0.36 .19
35.83 23.97 ABB ABB 2.1 17 33.58 +1.07.7066 24.50 9.46 AmerEagle AEO 4.7 27 15.41 +0.41 .18 60.29 19.00 ArgoGroup ARGO 4.6 dd 27.06 +0.13 .31 25.67 18.73 BRT Apartments BRT 4.9 7 20.29 +0.61 .25 9.82 4.11 BrasilAgro LND 17.7 7 5.50 +0.14.6018
54.00 37.68 ABMIndustries ABM 1.9 14 46.36 +0.15 .22 47.30 28.05 AmEqtyLf AEL .8 3 46.67 +0.28 .36 23.58 10.63 ArisWater ARIS 2.8 cc 15.22 +0.32 .09 62.84 42.58 BWX Tech BWXT 1.5 17 57.51 –0.52 .22 21.22 8.23 Braskem BAK 34.8 11 9.26 +0.32 .708
9.00 4.27 ACCO Brands ACCO 4.8 31 6.19 +0.26 .075 199.55 130.65 AmerExpress AXP 1.3 16 155.76 +5.59 .52 143.57 89.12 AristaNetworks ANET ... 31 115.00 +2.55 ... 9.08 3.89 Babcock&Wilcox BW ... dd 6.30 +0.23 ... 74.80 28.85 BreadFinancial BFH 2.2 3 38.34 –2.77 .21
13.70 7.23 AcresCmclRlty ACR ... 16 9.68 +0.72 ... 152.29 119.01 AmericanFin AFG 1.8 12 143.12 +1.95 .63 3.69 2.65 ArlingtonAsset AAIC ... 47 3.03 +0.07 ... 179.00 6.31 Babylon BBLN ... dd 10.81 +2.22 ... 23.78 11.88 BridgeInvt BRDG 7.4 10 14.63 +1.01 .27
19.14 2.69 ADC Therap ADCT ... dd 5.00 +1.45 ... 43.89 29.31 AmHomes4Rent AMH 2.2 53 32.46 +1.49 .18 11.79 2.93 ArloTech ARLO ... dd 3.93 +0.14 ... 120.54 73.20 BadgerMeter BMI .8 51 116.07 +8.07 .225 4.06 0.49 BrightHealth BHG ... dd .92 +0.34 ...
10.10 6.00 ADT ADT 1.4 dd 9.79 +0.46 .035 65.73 47.05 AIG AIG 2.0 4 64.41 –0.14 .32 15.13 10.04 ArmadaHoffler AHH 6.2 20 12.23 +0.63 .19 9.01 1.13 Bakkt BKKT ... dd 2.05 +0.72 ... 140.02 54.19 BrightHorizons BFAM ... 54 73.59 +4.04 ...
87.89 60.74 AECOM ACM .7 40 86.40 +3.25 .18 27.76 12.90 AmRltyInv ARL ... 1 20.31 –1.41 ... 9.87 4.38 ArmourResREIT ARR 19.7 dd 6.08 +0.30 .10 97.99 46.00 Ball BALL 1.4 19 57.12 +2.86 .20 4.80 2.04 BrightScholar BEDU ... ... 2.42 –0.02 ...
29.89 18.62 AES AES 2.4 dd 27.86 +1.43.1659 100.51 71.22 AmerStWater AWR 1.7 44 95.48 +0.83.3975 109.65 66.86 ArmstrongWorld AWI 1.4 18 75.04 +3.30 .254 37.21 17.54 Bally's BALY ... dd 20.83 +1.35 ... 26.48 14.73 BrightSphere BSIG .2 10 21.43 +0.48 .01
74.02 52.07 Aflac AFL 2.3 9 72.85 –0.99 .42 282.47 178.17 AmerTowerREIT AMT 2.5 37 232.81 +14.31 1.56 135.00 89.38 ArrowElec ARW ... 5 113.86 +3.78 ... 22.01 14.86 BancCalifornia BANC 1.4 11 17.33 +0.45 .06 10.20 6.11 BrightSpire BRSP11.0 8 7.28 +0.51 .20
150.28 88.55 AGCO AGCO .7 12 141.36 +5.07 .24 25.99 13.82 AmerVanguard AVD .5 25 23.16 +1.33 .03 46.71 25.67 ArtisanPtrsAsset APAM 8.5 10 34.79 +2.24 .56 4.77 2.03 BancoBBVA BBAR .0 3 4.66 +0.47.0162 14.17 5.78 BrightView BV ... 47 7.71 +0.34 ...
10.68 3.52 AG Mortgage MITT12.6 dd 6.41 +0.52 .18 173.87 122.77 AmerWaterWorks AWK 1.6 22 158.87 +0.61 .655 23.43 9.64 Artivion AORT ... dd 12.78 +0.33 ... 6.97 3.93 BancoBilbaoViz BBVA 4.3 7 6.89 +0.29.1168 44.03 21.47 BrinkerIntl EAT ... 23 37.56 +1.86 ...
8.37 1.12 a.k.a.Brands AKA ... dd 1.45 +0.10 ... 5.43 2.52 AmericanWell AMWL ... dd 3.92 +0.59 ... 74.89 11.32 Asana ASAN ... dd 14.33 +2.55 ... 3.55 2.29 BancoBradesco BBDO 5.1 6 2.57 +0.05 .075 73.42 48.38 Brink's BCO 1.3 17 62.62 +4.68 .20
21.09 3.77 AMC Ent AMC ... dd 5.06 +1.21 ... 32.99 21.49 AmericoldRealty COLD 2.8 dd 31.18 +2.38 .22 203.92 138.88 AsburyAutomotive ABG ... 5 189.05 +4.82 ... 22.74 15.64 BancodeChile BCH 5.0 7 20.60 +0.75 .855 81.44 61.19 BristolMyers BMY 3.1 24 72.51 –0.49 .57
129.04 82.76 AMN Healthcare AMN ... 10 103.86 –5.91 ... 339.41 219.99 Ameriprise AMP 1.5 14 333.18 +11.90 1.25 10.40 9.89 AscendantDigA ACDI ... 25 10.35 +0.03 ... 17.47 12.58 Bladex BLX 5.8 9 17.14 +1.04 .25 0.25 0.10 BristolMyersRt CELG.RT75.8 ... .14 +0.02.1046
2555.30 9.31 AMTD Digital HKD ... ... 11.04 –11.90 ... 174.63 127.94 AmerisourceBrgn ABC 1.2 20 164.28 –1.43 .485 12.09 4.09 AshfordHosp AHT ... dd 5.83 +1.51 ... 21.15 9.72 BancoMacro BMA 3.4 5 20.56 +2.45.0729 40.10 21.61 Bristow VTOL ... 51 28.93 +1.97 ...
25.80 1.59 AMTD IDEA AMTD ... 1 1.65 –0.25 ... 146.82 106.17 Ametek AME .6 30 146.13 +2.29 .22 114.36 83.29 Ashland ASH 1.2 dd 112.25 +5.68 .335 7.98 4.80 BancSanBrasil BSBR 5.8 ... 5.86 +0.22.0447 47.24 35.47 BritishAmTob BTI 7.0 12 38.40 –2.29.7354
10.38 9.86 AP Acqn A APCA ... cc 10.38 +0.02 ... 4.98 1.95 AmnealPharm AMRX ... dd 2.22 +0.01 ... 41.34 7.93 AspenAerogels ASPN ... dd 11.88 +0.77 ... 22.95 13.37 BcoSantChile BSAC ... 7 16.05 +0.11 ... 27.19 17.62 BrixmorProp BRX 4.7 20 22.25 –0.80 .26
4.18 2.11 ARC Document ARC 5.6 13 3.55 +0.46 .05 6.67 2.26 Ampco-Pitt AP ... dd 3.35 +0.54 ... 26.52 16.88 AssetMarkFin AMK ... 20 24.80 +0.74 ... 6.29 4.52 BcoSantMex BSMX 9.7 6 6.28 +0.27.3272 9.80 3.52 BroadmarkRealty BRMK10.0 9 4.19 +0.23 .035
7.99 4.45 ASETech ASX 8.0 6 7.05 +0.36.4794 82.86 61.67 Amphenol APH 1.0 27 80.37 +1.80 .21 25.78 17.45 AssociatedBanc ASB 3.6 11 23.27 –0.33 .21 4.01 2.26 BancoSantander SAN 2.2 6 3.37 +0.17.0559 183.33 131.35 BroadridgeFinl BR 2.0 33 144.11 +7.01 .725
124.35 78.26 ASGN ASGN ... 15 86.81 +1.80 ... 10.38 3.10 AmplifyEnergy AMPY ... 6 8.86 +0.64 ... 47.50 33.69 AssocCapital AC .5 dd 38.71 –1.48 .10 45.98 23.86 BanColombia CIB 3.7 8 29.67 +1.19.6545 24.18 14.98 Broadstone BNL 6.3 25 17.51 +0.41 .275
21.53 14.46 AT&T T 5.7 7 19.55 +0.02.2775 26.01 5.62 AmpriusTech AMPX ... ... 6.15 –0.32 ... 194.12 119.01 Assurant AIZ 2.2 22 128.75 +0.16 .70 50.11 29.31 BankofAmerica BAC 2.5 11 35.23 +0.82 .22 7.61 2.61 BrookdaleSrLiving BKD ... dd 2.73 –0.15 ...
35.46 17.71 ATI ATI ... cc 35.44 +2.92 ... 16.72 9.88 Amrep AXR ... 5 11.96 –0.04 ... 67.13 45.91 AssuredGuaranty AGO 1.6 15 62.39 +0.20 .25 36.50 26.76 BrookfieldAsset BAM ... ... 31.89 +2.11 ...
41.69 28.67 BankofButterfield NTB 5.6 8 31.44 +1.04 .44
3.93 0.22 ATI PhysTherapy ATIP ... dd .43 +0.12 ... 10.35 9.84 AndrettiAcqnA WNNR ... cc 10.31 –0.03 ... 32.00 2.40 Atento ATTO ... dd 5.50 +0.24 ... 36.79 17.58 BrookfieldBus BBUC 1.2 3 20.20 +0.87.0625
92.38 70.15 BankofHawaii BOH 3.5 15 80.60 +0.65 .70
19.79 12.27 A10Networks ATEN 1.5 31 15.82 –0.05 .06 17.93 4.43 AngelOakMtg AOMR16.7 dd 7.67 +1.26 .32 10.90 9.81 AthenaCnsmrA ACAQ ... dd 10.31 –0.25 ... 50.48 29.85 Brookfield BN 1.6 17 35.58 +2.31.1131
122.77 81.57 BankofMontreal BMO 3.5 6 97.95 +2.821.0548
10.35 9.94 AxiosSustGrwA AXAC ... dd 10.33 –0.01 ... 26.96 11.94 AngloGoldAsh AU 1.8 18 23.18 +1.71.2935 10.16 9.55 AthenaTechII A ATEK ... cc 10.10 +0.01 ... 53.64 37.55 BrookfieldInfr BIPC 3.3 19 43.31 +2.08 .36
64.63 36.22 BankNY Mellon BK 3.0 15 49.03 +1.08 .37
0.16 0.04 AxiosSustGrwRt AXAC.RT ... ... .14 +0.03 ... 67.91 44.51 AB InBev BUD .6 32 60.92 –0.17.3998 128.36 70.50 Atkore ATKR ... 6 126.16 +7.09 ... 46.01 30.03 BrookfieldInfr BIP 4.2 50 34.53 +1.58 .36
74.86 45.26 BankNovaScotia BNS 5.9 8 51.65 +1.67.7941
61.39 48.32 AXIS Capital AXS 3.1 14 56.90 +1.03 .44 32.00 15.11 AnnalyCap NLY 15.5 3 22.70 +0.56 .88 16.23 10.13 Atlas ATCO 3.3 7 15.27 –0.08 .125 51.20 29.84 BrookfieldReinsur BNRE .0 ... 35.70 +2.34.1131
46.50 31.44 BankUnited BKU 2.8 9 35.22 +1.11 .25
42.62 15.12 AZEK AZEK ... 47 22.65 +0.48 ... 23.91 8.39 AnnovisBio ANVS ... dd 12.81 –0.39 ... 122.96 97.71 AtmosEnergy ATO 2.6 20 114.74 +2.21 .74 44.41 27.19 BrookfieldRenew BEPC 4.2 16 30.63 +2.44 .32
10.35 9.86 BanyanAcqnA BYN ... 25 10.35 +0.12 ...
52.00 30.21 AZZ AZZ 1.6 dd 43.85 +1.76 .17 11.61 8.56 AnteroMidstream AM 7.9 17 11.39 +0.36 .225 6.71 1.52 ATRenew RERE ... dd 3.09 –0.26 ... 74.00 52.91 Brown&Brown BRO .8 28 61.27 +2.44 .115
23.63 7.65 Aaron's AAN 3.1 28 14.35 +1.30.1125 12.10 5.89 Barclays BCS 3.4 ... 8.96 +0.50 .104
48.80 15.98 AnteroResources AR ... 5 29.74 +1.54 ... 3.36 0.20 Audacy AUD ... dd .31 +0.08 ... 11.28 7.89 BaringsBDC BBDC10.7 30 8.86 +0.46 .24 76.60 56.97 Brown-Forman A BF.A 1.2 36 67.25 +2.97.2055
130.94 93.25 AbbottLabs ABT 1.8 26 113.51 +1.18 .51 20.59 5.82 AnywhereRealEst HOUS ... 5 8.21 +1.27 ... 40.89 20.49 Autohome ATHM 1.4 20 35.87 +0.14 .53 78.15 60.23 Brown-Forman B BF.B 1.2 36 67.07 +2.66.2055
175.91 128.26 AbbVie ABBV 3.9 20 153.60 –12.95 1.48 6.35 1.38 Barnes&NobleEduc BNED ... dd 2.11 +0.17 ...
341.98 246.21 Aon AON .7 25 317.17 +9.84 .56 108.15 65.74 Autoliv ALV 3.3 18 80.34 +1.85 .66 48.48 27.93 BarnesGroup B 1.5 86 43.89 +0.83 .16 99.65 61.89 Brunswick BC 1.8 9 79.26 +2.45 .365
42.09 14.02 Abercrombie&Fitch ANF ... 66 27.98 +2.78 ... 55.82 33.57 AptIncmREIT AIRC 5.0 6 36.20 +1.08 .45 135.57 94.92 AutoNation AN ... 5 110.51 –0.49 ... 50.35 26.50 Buckle BKE 3.1 9 45.08 –2.80 2.65
22.63 12.28 AcadiaRealty AKR 4.8 dd 15.06 +0.54 .18 26.07 13.01 BarrickGold GOLD 3.3 18 19.64 +0.60 .20
9.79 5.22 ApartmtInv AIV 21.7 4 7.55 +0.21 .02 2610.05 1703.32 AutoZone AZO ... 20 2368.88 –117.76 ... 62.27 25.75 Bath&BodyWks BBWI 1.7 12 46.66 +0.54 .20 12.35 5.09 Buenaventura BVN 1.0 6 8.36 +0.24 .073
14.04 7.26 AccelEnt ACEL ... 12 8.87 +0.35 ... 10.81 9.85 ApeironCapA APN ... 32 10.45 +0.15 ... 259.05 157.69 Avalonbay AVB 3.8 19 167.85 +4.22 1.59 26.87 12.47 Build-A-Bear BBW ... 7 24.33 –0.67 ...
360.10 242.95 Accenture ACN 1.6 26 282.14 +12.93 1.12 10.41 9.75 BatteryFutureA BFAC ... 19 10.29 +0.01 ...
24.50 13.09 APi Group APG ... dd 20.71 +1.63 ... 51.71 37.64 Avangrid AGR 4.1 19 43.40 –0.79 .44 20.20 12.20 Bausch+Lomb BLCO ... cc 16.59 +0.46 ... 10.10 9.65 BuildAcqnA BGSX ... 41 10.07 +0.04 ...
10.05 9.60 AcropolisInfrA ACRO ... dd 10.01 +0.05 ... 14.55 7.91 ApolloComRlEst ARI 11.9 6 11.74 +0.54 .35 35.91 19.32 AvanosMedical AVNS ... 33 29.40 +2.34 ... 80.40 48.91 BuildersFirst BLDR ... 4 71.93 +4.69 ...
209.67 142.71 AcuityBrands AYI .3 16 173.78 +4.02 .13 27.50 4.00 BauschHealth BHC ... 11 7.50 +0.03 ...
71.72 45.62 ApolloGlbMgmt APO 2.3 dd 69.71 +5.38 .40 38.83 17.91 Avantor AVTR ... 25 22.10 +2.03 ... 128.40 80.41 Bunge BG 2.5 10 100.42 +3.80 .625
53.94 37.46 Acushnet GOLF 1.5 20 47.61 +4.28 .18 89.70 44.33 BaxterIntl BAX 2.6 dd 44.84 –3.61 .29
10.10 9.66 ApolloStratII A APGB ... 45 10.08 +0.02 ... 20.40 0.12 Avaya AVYA ... dd .28 +0.07 ... 11.20 6.94 BurfordCapital BUR 2.7 ... 9.13 +0.43.0625
13.55 6.95 Adecoagro AGRO 3.8 6 8.38 +0.37.1602 2.47 0.50 Beachbody BODY ... dd .69 +0.17 ...
18.69 13.79 AppleHospREIT APLE 5.8 24 16.49 +0.92 .08 211.36 151.62 AveryDennison AVY 1.5 20 195.34 +7.03 .75 243.94 106.47 BurlingtonStrs BURL ... 91 225.25 +1.34 ...
50.60 27.15 Adient ADNT ... dd 41.88 +3.54 ... 10.39 9.75 BeardEnerA BRD ... ... 10.25 +0.05 ...
133.74 88.09 AppliedIndlTechs AIT 1.1 18 126.08 +5.45 .34 55.44 27.65 Avient AVNT 2.6 19 38.59 +0.72.2475 8.72 2.17 ButterflyNtwk BFLY ... dd 2.43 +0.20 ...
10.95 9.80 AditEdTechA ADEX ... cc 10.19 +0.09 ... 22.04 9.47 BeazerHomes BZH ... 2 14.65 +1.17 ...
122.94 90.23 Aptargroup ATR 1.3 32 113.97 –0.09 .38 46.90 35.72 Avista AVA 4.1 24 42.88 –0.66 .44 28.97 20.15 BylineBancorp BY 1.6 11 23.20 +0.11 .09
44.40 19.14 AdtalemGlbEduc ATGE ... dd 37.32 –0.05 ... 156.37 77.96 Aptiv APTV ... 88 101.55 +3.24 ... 277.29 215.90 BectonDicknsn BDX 1.4 43 255.85 –3.49 .91
33.16 20.66 AxaltaCoating AXTA ... 30 27.27 +0.74 ... 82.83 47.89 Belden BDC .2 24 80.99 +5.51 .05
242.96 138.52 AdvanceAuto AAP 4.0 19 151.03 –2.99 1.50 45.47 28.74 Aramark ARMK 1.0 60 45.31 +1.36 .11 60.97 33.91 AxosFinancial AX ... 10 41.40 +2.43 ... C
153.36 79.90 AdvDrainageSys WMS .5 16 88.73 +5.82 .12 18.52 11.16 ArborRealty ABR 10.8 8 14.30 +0.51 .40 28.95 20.20 BellRing BRBR ... 35 27.00 +0.42 ...
17.46 5.29 Azul AZUL ... dd 6.83 ... ... 30.00 21.11 BenchmarkElec BHE 2.3 17 28.71 +1.21 .165
57.10 30.69 AdvanSix ASIX 1.3 8 43.17 +4.29 .145 37.47 19.25 ArcelorMittal MT 1.0 2 31.17 +2.43 .38 21.53 3.26 AzurePowerGlbl AZRE ... dd 4.00 –0.52 ... 319.33 238.29 CACI Intl CACI ... 19 293.56 –21.05 ...
6.22 3.76 Aegon AEG 3.2 27 5.53 +0.34.1096 183.53 86.50 ArchResources ARCH .7 3 138.97 –2.5310.50 5.85 2.16 BensonHill BHIL ... dd 2.42 ... ... 5.59 2.73 CBD Pao CBD 1.6 3 3.58 +0.38.0713
6.57 1.85 Aenza AENZ ... dd 3.17 ... ... 5.24 1.62 ArcherAviation ACHR ... dd 2.60 +0.30 ... B 10.43 9.65 BerensonAcqnI BACA ... 18 10.05 +0.02 ... 51.67 35.46 CBIZ CBZ ... 24 48.22 +1.70 ...
68.92 37.20 AerCap AER ... dd 63.49 +2.07 ... 98.88 65.64 ArcherDaniels ADM 1.8 12 88.40 +2.45 .40 76.99 53.34 Berkley WRB .5 16 73.36 –0.93 .50 34.91 21.66 CBL&Assoc CBL 3.8 dd 26.50 +2.83 2.20
56.53 35.47 AerojetRocket AJRD ... 48 55.96 +0.06 ... 10.44 6.28 Archrock AROC 6.1 38 9.53 +0.29 .145 4.46 1.25 Bark BARK ... dd 1.93 +0.27 ... 544389 393012 BerkHathwy A BRK.A ... dd 481021 –934.00 ... 106.60 66.31 CBRE Group CBRE ... 14 86.11 +5.19 ...
5.90 1.17 AevaTech AEVA ... dd 1.69 +0.42 ... 34.94 16.33 Arconic ARNC ... 53 23.67 +1.26 ... 33.69 10.91 B&G Foods BGS 5.5 dd 13.84 +1.40 .19 362.10 259.85 BerkHathwy B BRK.B ... dd 317.64 –1.05 ... 10.17 9.72 CCNeubergerIII A PRPC ... 24 10.15 +0.02 ...
172.01 108.12 AffiliatedMgrs AMG .0 13 168.42 +3.56 .01 8.81 5.10 ArcosDorados ARCO 1.7 14 8.73 +0.59 .03 59.34 39.88 BCE BCE 5.9 19 46.66 +0.82.7017 31.78 23.62 BerkshireHills BHLB 2.3 18 30.79 ... .18 119.60 63.10 CF Industries CF 1.8 6 86.91 +2.50 .40
10.15 9.66 AfricanGoldA AGAC ... 49 10.13 +0.07 ... 65.80 43.42 Arcosa ACA .3 29 58.68 +4.94 .05 5.65 0.50 BEST BEST ... 0 .82 +0.21 ... 73.91 44.52 BerryGlobal BERY 1.6 11 61.55 +0.05 .25 10.28 9.87 C5AcqnA CXAC ... cc 10.27 +0.02 ...
10.08 9.57 AfterNextA AFTR ... 23 10.05 –0.03 ... 10.15 9.67 ArctosNorthA ANAC ... 32 10.12 +0.01 ... 16.02 10.30 BGSF BGSF 3.8 14 15.82 +0.38 .15 112.96 60.79 BestBuy BBY 4.1 13 85.78 +2.74 .88 89.11 72.23 CGI GIB ... 18 86.64 +1.94 ...
160.26 112.52 AgilentTechs A .6 38 156.92 +9.25 .225 39.75 16.74 ArcusBiosci RCUS ... 22 20.38 +1.90 ... 71.04 46.92 BHP Group BHP 9.4 8 69.28 +3.24 3.50 44.60 12.87 BigLots BIG 6.6 dd 18.18 +1.29 .30 19.08 5.22 CI&T CINT ... 43 8.55 +0.81 ...
23.26 14.15 Agiliti AGTI ... 63 16.60 +1.23 ... 9.80 3.91 ArdaghMetalPkg AMBP 7.6 13 5.27 +0.06 .10 51.80 1.40 BitMining BTCM ... dd 3.07 +1.31 ... 16.12 0.58 BigBear.ai BBAI ... dd 2.39 +1.63 ... 20.93 8.50 CI Financial CIXX 4.7 7 11.40 +0.85.1335
28.36 14.36 agilon health AGL ... dd 19.83 +4.44 ... 16.32 3.09 ArdmoreShipping ASC ... 8 14.10 +0.27 ... 80.41 51.45 BJ'sWholesale BJ ... 19 69.05 +0.23 ... 819.98 540.33 BiglariA BH.A ... dd 726.97 +22.97 ... 73.76 52.41 CMS Energy CMS 2.9 14 63.92 –0.52 .46
67.14 36.69 AgnicoEagleMines AEM 2.9 38 55.95 +0.67 .40 167.39 110.56 BiglariB BH ... dd 147.84 +4.51 ... 50.33 35.90 CNA Fin CNA 3.7 13 43.25 –0.41 .40
80.44 61.62 AgreeRealty ADC 3.8 41 74.82 +4.04 .24 262.17 89.87 Bill.com BILL ... dd 103.31 +8.82 ... 17.51 10.60 CNH Indl CNHI 1.6 14 17.48 +0.76.3072
47.00 29.75 AirLease AL 1.8 dd 43.50 +2.35 .20 18.78 5.54 Biohaven BHVN ... ... 18.70 +4.27 ... 26.74 16.56 CNO Financial CNO 2.4 6 23.16 –0.66 .14
328.56 216.24 AirProducts APD 2.1 31 311.40 +1.22 1.62 670.62 344.63 Bio-RadLab A BIO ... dd 455.20 +36.52 ... 24.21 14.11 CNX Resources CNX ... dd 16.71 +0.54 ...
Europe Asia
10.14 6.13 SpokHoldings SPOK 15.1 dd 8.30 –0.06.3125 3.08 0.28 TransCodeTherap RNAZ ... dd .61 –0.02 ...
17.45 7.10 Sportradar SRAD ... 64 10.88 +0.93 ... 64.36 10.00 TransMedics TMDX ... dd 60.90 +5.27 ...
12.28 7.75 SportsmansWrhs SPWH ... 5 10.09 –0.07 ... 65.33 31.19 TravelCenters TA ... 5 47.68 +1.64 ...
10.88 9.83 SportsMapTech SMAP ... dd 10.24 +0.04 ... 10.15 4.10 Travelzoo TZOO ... 65 5.27 +0.30 ...
10.79 10.00 SpringValleyII A SVII ... ... 10.19 +0.03 ... 30.35 17.97 TravereTherap TVTX ... dd 20.32 +0.02 ... Recovering: European stocks continued their revival—thanks Golden Shares: As China reopens, its government con-
0.21 0.10 SpringValleyII Rt SVIIR ... ... .19 +0.02 ... 26.06 12.48 TreaceMed TMCI ... dd 25.94 +2.29 ...
8.18 2.12 TreanInsurance TIG ... 12 6.01 +0.01 ... to better economic performance and cheaper energy. templates taking control shares in Alibaba and Tencent.
5.44 0.41 SpringBig SBIG ... dd .76 +0.19 ...
65.92 13.60 SpringWorks SWTX ... dd 29.01 +1.49 ... 16.73 6.12 TremorIntl TRMR ... 14 7.33 +0.76 ...
35.34 22.56 SproutsFarmers SFM ... 14 32.00 +0.29 ... 4.68 0.46 TreviTherap TRVI ... dd 2.62 +0.39 ...
3.46 0.95 SpruceBio SPRB ... dd 2.76 +0.34 ... 13.85 0.13 Tricida TCDA ... dd .15 –0.03 ... S&P Europe BMI 1.85% S&P Pan Asia BMI 2.20%
112.27 46.36 StaarSurgical STAA ... 95 72.50 +12.46 ... 58.62 37.41 TriCoBancshares TCBK 2.4 14 50.14 +0.31 .30
8.29 4.80 Stagwell STGW ... 43 7.11 +0.60 ... 36.33 21.41 TriMas TRS .5 22 30.33 +1.73 .04 Netherlands 4.88 Philippines 4.07
4.23 0.92 StdBioTools LAB ... dd 2.00 +0.45 ... 77.27 47.52 Trimble TRMB ... 29 54.51 +3.01 ...
33.99 16.85 StarBulkCarriers SBLK31.3 3 20.80 +1.20 1.20 1.55 0.86 TrinityBiotech TRIB ... dd 1.06 +0.07 ... Sweden 4.32 South Korea 3.83
2.07 0.72 StarEquity STRR ... dd .97 +0.03 ... 20.26 10.23 TrinityCapital TRIN 14.1 11 12.24 +1.09 .15
107.30 68.39 Starbucks SBUX 2.0 38 107.23 +0.54 .53 39.01 14.29 Trip.com TCOM ... dd 37.53 –0.80 ... Germany 3.54 China 3.55
4.18 1.91 StealthGas GASS ... dd 2.72 +0.13 ... 30.48 16.87 Tripadvisor TRIP ... dd 21.35 +1.71 ...
113.12 50.54 SteelDynamics STLD 1.2 5 111.52 +8.83 .34 19.75 1.03 TritiumDCFC DCFC ... ... 1.49 –0.07 ... Italy 2.44 Australia 3.20
36.09 26.11 StellarBancorp STEL 1.7 22 30.30 +1.21 .13 120.12 45.08 TriumphFinl TFIN ... 12 51.92 +0.75 ...
41.19 22.39 StepStone STEP 2.8 33 28.75 +2.68 .20 2.76 0.93 trivago TRVG ... dd 1.68 +0.23 ... France 2.39 Taiwan 3.11
60.35 39.63 Stericycle SRCL ... cc 52.84 +1.10 ... 4.09 1.30 TrueCar TRUE ... dd 3.07 +0.35 ...
28.76 12.22 SterlingCheck STER ... 52 15.71 +0.70 ... 102.16 40.77 Trupanion TRUP ... dd 54.62 +7.03 ... U.K. 1.91 Singapore 1.63
34.86 20.46 SterlingInfr STRL ... 12 33.87 +1.89 ... 39.36 29.50 TrustcoBank TRST 3.7 11 38.70 +0.76 .36
45.04 26.36 StevenMadden SHOO 2.5 11 33.56 +2.22 .21 38.47 26.67 Trustmark TRMK 2.6 16 35.16 +0.09 .23 Greece 1.90 Malaysia 1.47
17.17 2.63 StitchFix SFIX ... dd 4.63 +0.99 ... 5.60 1.45 TScanTherap TCRX ... dd 2.20 +0.31 ...
78.71 50.83 StockYardsBncp SYBT 1.9 20 62.33 –0.63 .29 2.52 0.46 Tuniu TOUR ... dd 2.02 +0.10 ... Spain 1.77 Japan 1.36
26.60 6.88 StokeTherap STOK ... dd 9.75 +1.23 ... 25.33 6.22 TurtleBeach HEAR ... dd 8.86 +0.79 ...
16.96 6.81 StoneCo STNE ... dd 9.68 +0.39 ... 25.60 1.23 TuSimple TSP ... dd 2.19 +0.61 ... Switzerland 1.49 Hong Kong 1.27
6.31 2.02 23andMe ME ... dd 2.42 +0.37 ...
103.00 60.76 StoneX SNEX ... 9 93.61 –2.16 ... 18.20 7.91 TwinDisc TWIN ... 34 10.32 +0.80 ... Finland 1.35 New Zealand 0.90
28.00 11.04 Stratasys SSYS ... dd 13.57 +0.17 ... 66.15 21.78 TwistBiosci TWST ... dd 25.96 +0.56 ...
89.76 48.01 StrategicEd STRA 2.7 43 89.70 +4.53 .60 22.88 8.44 2seventybio TSVT ... dd 10.39 +0.40 ... Belgium 1.17 India 0.55
44.30 19.20 Strattec STRT ... 13 23.97 +3.19 ... 18.24 4.70 2U TWOU ... dd 7.43 +0.99 ...
46.44 18.51 StratusProp STRS .0 2 21.57 +2.38 4.67 14.27 4.93 TyraBiosciences TYRA ... dd 8.39 +1.54 ... Norway 0.73 Thailand 0.39
14.43 0.40 StrongholdDig SDIG ... dd .65 +0.19 ...
30.83 24.27 SummitFin SMMF 3.1 7 25.44 +0.65 .20 U -1.46 Denmark -0.81 Indonesia
17.98 14.05 SummitStateBk SSBI 3.1 6 15.61 –0.38 .12 94.78 64.13 UFP Inds UFPI 1.2 8 86.81 +4.35 .25
5.78 0.66 SummitTherap SMMT ... dd 4.80 +0.60 ... 112.24 76.97 UMB Fin UMBF 1.7 10 86.91 +2.41 .38 Indexes based on S&P Global Broad Market Indices Source: S&P DJ Indices
12.67 6.43 SumoLogic SUMO ... dd 7.80 +0.41 ... 7.07 2.68 UPFintech TIGR ... dd 4.14 +0.46 ...
30.61 13.25 SunCountryAir SNCY ... cc 18.75 +1.46 ... 15.05 11.00 USCB Financial USCB ... ... 12.36 –0.15 ...
11.67 4.22 SunOpta STKL ... dd 8.90 –0.19 ...
28.42
39.13
95.22
12.78
16.80
34.11
SunPower
SunRun
SuperMicroComp
SPWR ...
RUN ...
SMCI ...
59
96
10
18.66
27.80
80.58
+1.53 ...
+5.11 ...
–3.81 ...
154.00
10.33
4.98
102.12
9.72
0.46
US Lime&Min
UTA Acqn A
uCloudlink
USLM
UTAA
UCL
.5
...
...
20
cc
dd
146.20
10.25
3.56
+2.40 .20
+0.02 ...
–0.08 ...
Key Foreign Stock Market Indexes
17.26 9.47 Udemy UDMY ... dd 11.01 –0.22 ... Most Recent Week’s Year-to-Date Most Recent Week’s Year-to-Date
21.98 8.52 SuperiorGroup SGC 4.6 dd 12.29 +1.86 .14 495.89 330.80 UltaBeauty ULTA ... 22 490.99 +4.80 ...
39.92 24.95 SupernusPharms SUPN ... 63 39.88 +0.50 ... Close %Chg. Chg. % Chg. Close %Chg. Chg. % Chg.
60.45 23.32 UltraClean UCTT ... 26 32.83 –2.87 ...
4.42 0.60 SurfaceOncol SURF ... dd .99 –0.04 ... 85.53 33.36 UltragenyxPharm RARE ... dd 43.55 –3.11 ... Amsterdam AEX 748.04 +3.28 +59.03 +8.57 Milan FTSE All Share 27842 +2.18 +2122.97 +8.25
32.40 1.34 Surgalign SRGA ... dd 2.79 +0.52 ... 5.86 3.67 Ultralife ULBI ... dd 4.02 +0.04 ...
63.87 20.46 SurgeryPartners SGRY ... dd 32.20 +4.36 ... 22.06 15.77 Umpqua UMPQ 4.8 11 17.33 –0.03 .21 Athens General 968.38 +1.78 +38.59 +4.15 Oslo Composite 1357.76 +0.69 –4.92 –0.36
47.12 28.28 Surmodics SRDX ... dd 36.23 –1.81 ... 3.70 1.07 UnicoAmerican UNAM ... dd 1.28 –0.26 ...
10.98 3.33 SutroBioph STRO ... dd 7.87 –0.34 ... Bangkok SET 1681.73 +0.47 +13.07 +0.78 Paris CAC 7023.50 +2.37 +549.74 +8.49
33.03 21.29 UnionBankshares UNB 5.7 9 24.50 +0.74 .35
10.52 9.03 SwiftmergeAcqn IVCPU ... ... 10.52 +0.38 ... 28.26 12.52 uniQure QURE ... dd 23.07 +0.10 ... Bombay Sensex 60261 +0.60 –579.56 –0.95 Santiago Selective 3109.11 +0.39 –63.46 –2.00
11.37 9.67 SwiftmergeA IVCP ... dd 10.18 +0.04 ... 53.12 30.54 UnitedAirlines UAL ... dd 51.65 +9.41 ...
11.40 0.08 Swvl SWVL ... dd .24 –0.06 ... 44.15 33.11 UnitedBkshrsWV UBSI 3.5 16 40.87 +0.50 .36 Brussels Bel-20 3940.32 +2.44 +239.15 +6.46 Sao Paulo Bovespa 110916 +1.79 +1181.48 +1.08
28.48 8.75 Symbotic SYM ... dd 13.44 +1.03 ... 39.50 27.85 UtdCmtyBks UCBI 2.5 15 35.10 +1.11 .22
247.68 81.13 Synaptics SYNA ... 16 113.40 +13.39 ... 37.26 22.96 UnitedFire UFCS 2.1 14 30.08 +1.39 .16 Buenos Aires Merval 242154 +13.27 +40069 +19.83 Seoul Composite 2386.09 +4.20 +149.69 +6.69
2.36 0.51 Synchronoss SNCR ... dd .77 +0.08 ... 26.09 10.12 UnitedGuardian UG 5.5 17 11.28 +0.80 .31 Copenhagen OMX 20 1845.26 –1.48 +9.97 +0.54 Shanghai Composite 3195.31 +1.19 +106.05 +3.43
27.68 13.27 SyndaxPharm SNDX ... cc 26.31 +2.01 ... 8.74 6.50 UnitedSecBcshrs UBFO 5.5 10 8.01 +0.69 .11
92.86 22.89 SyneosHealth SYNH ... 13 34.91 –0.02 ... 283.09 158.38 UnitedTherap UTHR ... 18 261.04 –15.13 ... Dublin ISEQ 7781.01 +1.86 +672.19 +9.46 Shenzhen B Share Idx 1179.91 +0.03 +22.58 +1.95
2.65 0.55 Synlogic SYBX ... dd 1.05 +0.14 ... 14.25 5.34 Uniti UNIT 9.8 dd 6.10 +0.21 .15
391.17 255.02 Synopsys SNPS ... 53 332.97 +12.43 ... 30.50 24.80 UnityBancorp UNTY 1.6 8 27.12 +0.52 .11 EURO STOXX SXXE 444.95 +2.88 +34.98 +8.53 Singapore FTSE STI 3293.75 +0.52 +42.43 +1.30
3.56 1.71 SyprisSolutions SYPR ... dd 1.92 –0.13 ... 18.50 2.09 UnityBiotech UBX ... dd 4.29 +0.93 ... EURO STOXX 50 SXSE 4150.80 +3.31 +357.18 +9.42 Stockholm OMXS 847.04 +4.06 +65.18 +8.34
27.20 3.02 SyrosPharm SYRS ... dd 4.77 +1.21 ... 176.41 89.41 UnivDisplay OLED .9 32 128.58 +16.76 .30
T 39.29 16.56 UnivElectro UEIC ... cc 23.68 +1.32 ... Frankfurt DAX 15086 +3.26 +1162.93 +8.35 STOXX Europe 50 SXSP 3878.90 +1.62 +227.07 +6.22
40.76 15.86 UnivLogistics ULH 1.2 6 35.12 +0.45 .105
4.03 0.82 TCR2 Therap TCRR ... dd 1.29 +0.09 ... 10.71 6.52 UnivStainless USAP ... dd 8.17 +0.74 ... Helsinki OMHX 11253 +1.25 +445.53 +4.12 STOXX Europe 600 SXXP 452.54 +1.83 +27.65 +6.51
13.37 5.15 TelaBio TELA ... dd 11.36 –0.66 ... 2.08 0.50 UniversePharm UPC ... 3 .93 –0.76 ...
7.70 0.81 TFF Pharm TFFP ... dd 1.05 ... ... 31.93 23.48 UnivestFin UVSP 3.2 11 26.23 +0.42 .21 Hong Kong Hang Seng 21738 +3.56 +1957.25 +9.89 Sydney S&P/ASX 200 7328.10 +3.07 +289.41 +4.11
18.36 12.45 TFS Fin TFSL 7.5 57 15.03 +0.49.2825 21.62 6.26 UplandSoftware UPLD ... dd 8.60 +0.68 ... Istanbul IMKB 4984.86 –6.68 –524.30 –9.52 Taipel Weighted 14824 +3.14 +686.44 +4.86
10.42 9.78 TGVentureAcqn TGVC ... dd 10.22 +0.02 ... 161.00 12.01 Upstart UPST ... dd 16.99 +3.90 ...
11.04 9.88 TKBCriticalTech1 USCT ... 16 10.37 +0.04 ... 29.92 9.79 Upwork UPWK ... dd 12.60 +1.20 ... Jakarta Composite 6641.83 –0.64 –208.79 –3.05 Tel Aviv 125 Index 1848.26 +2.27 +34.91 +1.93
10.50 9.67 TLGY Acqn A TLGY ... 27 10.33 +0.03 ... 30.52 17.81 UrbanOutfitters URBN ... 16 28.35 +2.86 ...
3.34 0.51 TMCthemetals TMC ... dd .85 +0.01 ... 12.63 4.85 UroGenPharma URGN ... dd 8.56 +0.37 ... Johannesburg All Share 79333 +3.22 +6285.15 +8.60 Tokyo Nikkei-225 26119 +0.56 +25.02 +0.10
154.38 101.51 T-MobileUS TMUS ... cc 149.68 +1.11 ... 4.42 1.22 Usio USIO ... dd 1.79 +0.05 ... Kuala Lumpur Composite 1495.03 +0.98 –0.46 –0.03 Toronto S&P/TSX 20360 +2.75 +975.18 +5.03
44.43 23.09 TPG TPG 4.2 8 34.30 +4.01 .26 109.50 80.10 UtahMedProducts UTMD 1.3 21 90.11 –9.09 .295
25.05 8.46 TPIComposites TPIC ... dd 14.22 +2.61 ... 5.00 2.44 UTStarcom UTSI ... dd 4.88 +0.89 ... LISBON PSI 4594.37 +2.04 +173.94 +3.93 Vienna ATX 3290.24 +0.54 +163.85 +5.24
176.43 93.53 TRowePrice TROW 4.1 14 118.51 +6.22 1.20 17.50 2.21 Uxin UXIN ... 1 3.71 +0.21 ...
88.48 39.50 TTEC TTEC 2.1 21 48.39 +3.65 .52 London FTSE - 100 7844.07 +1.88 +392.33 +5.26 Wellington S&P/NZX 50 11754 +1.11 +281.20 +2.45
17.49 9.76 TTM Tech TTMI ... 19 17.30 +1.44 ... V
7.50 1.52 Taboola TBLA ... dd 3.26 +0.12 ... 10.29 9.82 VMGConsumerA VMGA ... dd 10.19 –0.02 ... Madrid IBEX 35 8881.70 +2.08 +652.62 +7.93 Zurich Swiss 11290 +1.31 +561.39 +5.23
15.06 2.09 TabulaRasaHlth TRHC ... dd 4.91 +0.13 ... 10.29 3.51 VNET VNET ... dd 6.10 –0.03 ... Manila Composite 6951.54 +4.25 +385.15 +5.87
21.62 6.28 TactileSystems TCMD ... dd 13.24 +0.45 ... 13.34 5.85 VOXX Intl VOXX ... dd 10.29 +1.27 ...
178.50 90.00 TakeTwoSoftware TTWO ... dd 105.03 +0.28 ... 58.14 31.85 VSE VSEC .8 22 50.97 +2.81 .10 Mexico City IPC 53576 +3.57 +5112.86 +10.55 Indexes are based on local currencies. Because of various holidays and other market closings, the most
11.29 0.89 TalarisTherap TALS ... dd 1.24 +0.03 ... 9.38 1.08 Vacasa VCSA ... dd 1.69 +0.30 ... recent close is not necessarily that of the week of publication.
3.28 0.42 TalisBiomed TLIS ... dd .58 +0.08 ... 12.00 2.02 Vaccitech VACC ... 5 2.73 +0.27 ...
1.94 0.52 Talkspace TALK ... dd .75 +0.09 ... 10.49 9.85 VahannaTechI A VHNA ... cc 10.34 +0.03 ...
54 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Cash Track
open-end funds by assets. These
funds value their portfolios daily barrons.com/cefund. They will no longer appear in print. The
and report net asset values (the
dollar amount of their holdings Herzfeld chart has moved to the Market Lab Newsletter. To sign
divided by the number of shares
outstanding) to the National up for the newsletter, go to barrons.com/newletters. Cashing Out: Investors pulled cash from equity funds, widening the last month’s average weekly outflow to
Association of Securities Dealers.
Total returns reflect both price $15.7 billion. Taxable-bond funds saw new cash, which shrank their average outflow to $4.7 billion. But out-
changes and dividends; these Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. flows swelled at muni-bond funds to $2.5 billion. At money-market funds, inflows narrowed to $13.7 billion.
figures assume that all distribu- NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
tions are reinvested in the fund. IntBdA 12.61 0.06 1.5 -0.3 Bridge Builder Trust: GlRESec 10.31 0.42 6.2 -1.4
Because Lipper is constantly up-
dating its database, these returns IntlGrIncA 34.19 1.04 7.2 5.7 CoreBond 9.07 0.08 2.8 -4.1 InfProtSec 11.02 0.05 1.8 4.8
may differ from those previously LtdTEBdA 15.24 0.10 1.3 0.0 CorePlusBond 8.96 0.09 3.0 -2.7 IntGvFxdInc 11.12 0.07 2.8 -6.2 Equity Funds Municipal Bond Funds
published or calculated by others. N PerA 50.26 1.74 6.2 21.0 Intl Eq 11.56 0.40 7.8 1.9 IntlCoreEq 14.40 0.46 6.6 13.0
3 year returns are cumulative. The NEcoA 45.90 1.83 5.5 8.0 LargeCapGrowth 17.92 0.70 4.9 23.7 IntlREst 3.91 0.15 5.4 -14.6 7100 -400
NAV is the last reported closing NwWrldA 70.79 2.61 6.5 6.2 IntlSustCore1 11.35 0.34 6.8 9.7
price for the week. Footnotes: NA: LargeCapValue 15.60 0.24 3.9 34.4
not available. NE: performance SmCpA 60.11 2.61 7.1 12.3 MunicipalBond 9.89 0.10 2.1 -0.4 IntlVal 18.95 0.58 6.6 19.7 200 -1200
excluded by Lipper editor. NN: fund STBFA 9.49 0.01 0.5 -0.9 S/MCapGrowth 12.34 0.50 5.0 12.6 IntlVectorEq 12.61 0.41 6.5 14.0
not tracked. NS: fund not in STTxExBdA 9.91 0.04 0.9 0.2 S/MCapValue 13.08 0.36 5.7 28.1 IntSmCo 18.48 0.58 6.1 10.1 -6700 -2000
existence for whole period. e: ex TECAA 16.58 0.18 2.4 -1.7 IntSmVa 19.93 0.62 6.0 12.7
capital gains distributions. f: Brown Advisory Funds:
previous day’s quote. n: no front- TxExA 12.33 0.15 2.5 -1.2 GrwthEquityInst 22.83 0.98 5.4 6.6 IntTermMuni 10.02 0.06 1.3 0.2 -13600 -2800
or back-end sales charge. p: fund WshA 53.27 0.62 2.5 29.0 IntVaIII 16.31 0.49 6.5 20.0
assets are used to pay marketing AMG Managers Funds: C LgCo 27.25 0.71 4.2 27.4 -20500 -3600
and distribution costs (12b-1 fees). LgCpIntl 24.67 0.78 6.7 12.6
r: fund levies redemption fee or YachtmanFocFd I 18.87 0.44 4.6 29.0 Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan
back-end load. s: stock dividend or YacktFocFd N n 18.95 0.45 4.6 28.3 Calamos Funds: STExQual 10.17 0.04 0.9 -2.9
split of 25% or more. t: fund charges YacktmanFd I 22.04 0.45 4.3 30.9 MktNeutI 13.97 0.14 1.5 7.1 STGov 9.80 0.02 0.3 -5.0
12b-1 fees (for marketing and Angel Oak Funds Trst: Calvert Investments: STMuniBd 10.10 0.02 0.5 0.8 Money Market Funds Taxable Bond Funds
distribution) and a back-end load.
v: capital-gains distribution may be AglOkMtiStFdClIn 8.61 0.05 1.0 -9.7 Eq A 69.21 2.08 4.6 34.8 US CoreEq1 31.24 0.86 4.9 30.7 24900 -1500
a return of capital. x: ex cash AQR Funds: Carillon Scout: US CoreEq2 28.49 0.79 4.9 32.4
dividend. US Micro 24.43 1.01 6.7 33.5 17200 -3500
LgCapDefStyle I 25.62 0.22 2.5 21.8 MidCap I 20.29 0.62 4.7 26.0 US Small 41.20 1.55 6.4 33.6
Net YTD 3-Yr. MgdFutStrI 8.38 -0.18 -3.8 28.0 CausewayInst :
NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
US SmCpVal 41.75 1.42 6.3 47.8 9500 -5500
ArbitrageI : CausewayInst 17.44 0.68 9.5 16.7 US TgdVal 29.21 1.08 6.6 47.4
A ArbitrageI 12.74 0.03 0.2 6.1 CIBC Atlas: USLCpGr 26.59 0.49 4.1 32.9
Artisan Funds: DispEq Inst 25.08 0.74 4.1 24.2 USLgVa 43.50 0.88 4.8 25.7
1800 -7500
AAM: GblOppInst 27.63 NA NA NA ClearBridge: USLgVaIII 28.47 0.58 4.8 26.0
Intl Inv n 25.68 NA NA NA USSoCoreEq2 20.39 0.67 5.9 27.2
-5900 -9500
B&GIncGroClI 22.87 0.11 2.9 24.1 AggressGrowthA101.71 3.46 5.5 -0.1
AB Funds: IntlInst 25.81 NA NA NA AllCapValueA 12.69 0.25 4.2 20.3 USSustCoreI 31.65 0.87 4.9 31.1 Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan
CapFdInc.LCapGow 72.85 2.74 4.3 25.7 IntlVal Inst 41.18 NA NA NA AppreciationA 27.69 0.53 3.0 25.5 USVectorEq 22.63 0.73 6.1 32.9
IntlVal Inv n 41.06 NA NA NA DividendStrat1 n 27.59 0.40 3.2 28.4 Dodge & Cox: A red chart indicates a lower value than the starting period. Green means it's higher than the starting period.
IntlStraEquPtZ 11.37 0.36 8.2 1.1
MidCapInst 34.92 NA NA NA DividendStratA 27.57 0.40 3.1 27.3 Balanced n 97.32 1.75 4.3 22.7 The charts above show four-week moving averages of net cash flow in millions of dollars. BARRON'S • Lipper FMI
MuniIncmShares 11.15 0.18 3.1 2.0
AB Funds - A: MidCapInv n 29.27 NA NA NA LargeCapGrowthA42.38 1.84 6.0 9.3 Dodge & Cox n 10.40 0.19 3.2 4.4
LgCpGrA 64.85 2.44 4.3 24.5 LargeCapGrowthI 49.35 2.15 6.0 10.3 GblStock n 13.50 0.39 7.1 26.9
B LargeCapValueI 37.66 0.56 3.3 27.9 Income n 12.57 0.14 3.1 -0.7 Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr. Net YTD 3-Yr.
RelatValA 6.07 0.10 3.6 30.2 NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret. NAV Chg. % Ret. % Ret.
AB Funds - ADV: SmallCapGrowthIS 40.12 2.35 7.5 21.0 Intl Stk n 46.38 1.49 7.6 12.8
Baird Funds: IntrTresBdIxPrem n 9.84 0.06 2.8 -5.6 FF2040 n 9.44 0.30 6.2 17.6 FltRateHi n 9.11 0.07 1.7 8.3 StratDivInc n 15.93 0.25 3.7 22.5
Cohen & Steers: Stock n 225.56 4.68 4.6 34.4
GlbBd 6.87 NA NA NA AggBdInst 9.87 0.10 2.8 -5.1 LgCpGwId InstPre n 21.73 0.84 4.4 26.2 FF2045 n 10.85 0.35 6.3 17.7 FocsdStk n 24.47 0.72 3.5 24.8 TaxFrB n 10.91 0.15 2.8 -1.2
GlbRltyI 51.07 1.83 5.5 -2.3 DoubleLine Funds:
HiIncmAdv 6.76 NA NA NA CorBdInst 10.14 0.10 2.7 -4.0 LgCpVlIdxIstPrem n 15.46 0.29 4.5 23.9 FF2050 n 10.97 0.35 6.2 17.6 FournOne n 49.65 1.40 5.5 16.2 TotalBond n 9.61 0.09 3.1 -2.4
IntlStraEquPtADV 11.35 0.35 8.1 1.1 InstlRlty 45.34 1.80 6.5 10.7 CoreFxdIncmI 9.46 0.10 2.9 -6.0 GNMA n 10.37 0.09 3.0 -6.2
IntBdInst 10.25 0.06 1.7 -1.9 LTTrsBdIdxInstPr n 10.80 0.14 6.6 -17.2 Free2055 n 12.72 0.41 6.3 17.7 TotalBond K6 8.95 0.09 3.1 -1.9
LgCpGrAdv 72.94 2.74 4.3 25.4 PrefSecIncnI 12.24 0.27 4.2 -0.4 LowDurBdI 9.46 0.04 0.9 0.7 GovtInc n 9.37 0.06 2.7 -6.8
ShtTBdInst 9.29 0.03 0.8 0.7 MidCpInxInstPrem n 27.38 0.90 5.6 23.9 Free2060InstPrem 14.51 0.42 5.6 15.0 Trend n 116.38 6.74 7.2 23.2
SelectUSLgShrt 12.43 0.08 1.1 17.0 RltyIncI 16.15 0.66 6.5 9.0 ShillerEnhCAPEI 12.65 0.55 7.1 17.4 OTCK6Port 14.88 0.66 5.8 27.3 GroCo n 23.87 1.09 6.0 38.0
Baron Funds: Freedom2015 K 10.72 0.20 4.2 6.5 Value n 13.45 0.57 7.7 45.7
SmMidCpValAdv 21.77 0.72 7.5 27.3 RltyShs n 62.30 2.51 6.6 10.2 TotRetBdI 9.04 0.09 3.1 -6.5 RealEstIdxInst n 15.54 0.67 7.0 -1.7 GroInc n 50.06 1.46 5.2 34.0
Asset n 91.51 3.35 5.4 13.8 Freedom2020 K 13.35 0.28 4.7 7.9 ValueDisc n 35.98 0.34 2.4 33.0
Aberdeen Fds: Colorado BondShares: TotRetBdN n 9.03 0.08 3.0 -7.2 SAIUSLgCpIndxFd 17.52 0.47 4.2 27.6 GrowCoK 23.98 1.10 6.1 38.3
Growth n 91.20 3.96 7.3 28.4 Freedom2020K6 13.29 0.28 4.7 8.2 Wrldw n 26.17 0.73 4.1 17.5
EmMktEqty Inst 13.68 0.52 9.5 -5.0 ColoradoBdShs 8.74 NA NA NA SeriesBondFd 9.12 0.08 2.9 -5.8 Freedom2025 K 12.29 0.28 5.0 9.4 GrStrt n 48.40 1.69 3.7 16.1 Fidelity SAI:
Partners n 117.78 6.19 5.6 83.8 E
Advisers Inv Trst: Columbia Class A: SeriesOverseas 11.68 0.46 7.6 13.7 Freedom2025K6 12.25 0.29 5.1 9.8 GwthDiscovery n 42.39 1.48 3.8 33.1
Baron Instl Shares: FidSAIEmgMktIndx 13.20 0.38 8.3 -4.4
BalancedA 42.15 0.95 4.0 14.8 Eaton Vance Class A: SerLTTreBdIdx 6.24 0.09 6.6 -17.3 Freedom2030 K 15.39 0.38 5.3 11.5 HighInc n 7.55 0.11 3.9 -2.9 FidSAIIntlIndxFd 12.58 0.42 7.1 10.0
Balanced n 81.79 1.38 3.0 23.8 AssetInst 96.63 3.54 5.4 14.7
ContCoreA 25.35 0.76 4.4 25.6 SmCpIdxInstPrem n 23.26 1.17 7.2 17.5 Freedom2030K6 15.33 0.39 5.3 11.9 IntBd n 10.03 0.05 1.8 -2.1 IntlValIdx 8.92 0.29 7.2 9.9
Growth n 99.62 1.90 3.5 33.7 EmergingMktsInst 14.19 0.54 8.8 -5.6 TMG1.1 77.59 2.12 4.2 25.2
DisplCoreA 11.35 0.25 3.7 24.2 STBdIdx InstPrem n 9.57 0.04 1.1 -1.3 Freedom2035 K 13.29 0.38 5.7 15.3 IntlDisc n 41.92 1.27 5.7 6.2 LowDurationInc 9.93 0.01 0.3 NS
AdvisorsInnerCir: GrowthInst 96.03 4.17 7.3 29.4 Eaton Vance Class I:
DivIncA 29.59 0.22 2.4 30.5 STTreIdx InstPre n 9.95 0.03 1.1 -1.7 Freedom2035K6 13.24 0.38 5.8 15.7 IntlEnhIdx n 9.94 0.29 6.2 9.2 SAIEmgMktLoVolIx 10.18 0.19 4.1 4.5
LSVValEq 25.22 0.44 5.6 26.5 PartnersInst 122.33 6.43 5.6 85.3 AtlCpSMID 35.43 0.58 3.7 27.5 IntlGrRet n 17.21 0.71 8.1 10.2
DivOpptyA 35.93 0.23 3.2 28.6 TMktIdxInstPrem n 110.90 3.33 4.6 25.6 Freedom2040 K 9.45 0.30 6.2 18.0 SAIInflaFocFd 9.72 0.31 -0.7 46.6
Akre Funds: SmallCapInst 28.87 1.64 9.0 19.4 FltgRt 8.30 0.07 1.7 5.5 IntMu n 10.07 0.09 1.8 0.2
LgCpGrowA 43.22 1.71 4.2 18.0 TotalMarketIndex n 13.97 0.42 4.6 26.3 Freedom2040K6 9.40 0.30 6.2 18.6 ShortTermBd 9.54 0.02 0.7 NS
AkreFocusInst 51.57 2.05 7.3 20.9 Bernstein Fds: GblMacAbR 8.20 0.08 0.7 5.4 TtlIntIdxInstPr n 12.54 0.40 7.1 6.9 InvGB n 7.27 0.07 3.1 -3.3
LgCpVl A 15.47 0.27 4.2 27.9 Freedom2045 K 10.84 0.35 6.3 18.1 TotalBd 9.10 0.09 3.2 -2.1
AkreFocusRtl 49.71 1.98 7.3 19.9 DivrMuni n 13.84 0.10 1.5 0.4 LiGoBalA 10.26 0.24 4.5 7.6 IncBos 5.04 0.07 3.7 5.5 USBdIdxInstPrem n 10.46 0.08 2.8 -5.8 Freedom2045K6 10.79 0.35 6.3 18.6 InvGrBd 10.14 0.09 3.1 -1.9 TxFreeBd 9.95 0.13 2.7 -1.8
AmanaGrowth n: IntmDur n 11.54 0.09 2.6 -6.6 SelgComuInfoA 87.59 3.78 7.1 42.4 NatlMuniInc 9.31 0.13 3.1 -0.4 USSusIdx n 17.37 0.51 4.3 27.5 Freedom2050 K 10.97 0.36 6.3 18.1 LargeCap n 39.73 1.36 5.7 31.7 U.S.TreBdIdx 8.87 0.05 2.6 -6.1
AmanaGrowth n 59.72 1.40 4.4 43.4 BlackRock Funds: TaxEA 11.88 0.17 3.2 -4.4 Edgewood Growth Instituti: Fidelity Adv Focus A: Freedom2050K6 10.94 0.36 6.3 18.6 LCapCrEIdx n 18.46 0.41 3.4 30.8 USMomentumIdx 13.89 0.01 0.0 31.0
Amer Beacon Insti: CoreBd Inst 8.47 0.08 3.2 -5.4 Columbia Class Adv: EdgewoodGrInst 33.61 1.64 7.4 8.4 HthCarA 59.12 2.25 2.3 18.9 Freedom2055 K 12.72 0.41 6.3 18.0 LCapGrEIdx n 23.76 0.80 3.7 29.7
USValueIndex 11.22 0.29 6.0 27.8
SmCpInst 24.06 0.95 7.3 32.8 HiYBlk 6.89 0.11 4.0 4.1 TechA 65.76 3.81 5.8 34.0 Freedom2055K6 12.69 0.41 6.3 18.6 LevCoSt n 32.88 1.24 5.4 26.6
DivIncom 30.18 0.23 2.4 31.5 Fidelity Selects:
HiYldBd Inst 6.88 0.10 3.8 3.8 F Fidelity Advisor: Idx2020InsPre 14.70 0.28 4.3 6.1 LgCpVHIdx n 14.82 0.21 3.4 29.1
American Century G: Columbia Class C: Biotech n 16.77 0.44 3.0 6.9
InflProtBdInst 9.93 0.05 1.9 6.1 Idx2025InsPre 16.64 0.35 4.6 7.4 LmtTrmMuniIncm n 10.25 0.05 1.0 -0.2
GlBond 8.57 0.08 2.6 -6.3 DivInc 28.57 0.22 2.3 27.6 FAM Value: SrsAdvIntlCapApp 25.31 1.16 8.3 7.3 DfAero n 15.69 -0.25 0.9 -1.2
LowDurI Inst 8.93 0.03 0.8 -1.1 Idx2030InsPre 17.60 0.39 4.8 9.2 LowP n 47.67 0.94 3.2 32.6
Sustain Equity 40.42 1.29 4.3 29.2 Columbia Class I: StragInc n 11.19 0.13 3.0 1.7 Energy n 58.01 2.31 3.4 78.0
BlackRock Funds A: FAMValue n 86.82 1.80 5.2 20.1 Idx2035InsPre 19.69 0.51 5.2 12.4 LowPriStkK 47.60 0.94 3.2 32.9
American Century I: Acorn I 9.52 0.56 6.1 -3.5 TotBdFdClZ 9.60 0.10 3.1 -2.1 Health n 28.26 1.08 2.3 22.7
Federated Hermes A: Idx2040InsPre 20.01 0.57 5.5 15.0 LowPriStkK6 14.49 0.28 3.1 33.5
EqInc 9.03 0.08 3.0 18.0 AdvLgCapCore 15.82 0.46 3.9 24.5 Fidelity Advisor A: HlthCareSrvPt r n 129.54 2.62 -1.9 41.6
Balanced I 42.04 0.95 4.0 15.7 StrValDivA p 5.97 0.01 3.3 24.2 Idx2045InsPre 20.79 0.60 5.6 15.0 LtdTmBdFd n 10.92 0.05 1.2 -1.3
Growth 38.19 1.59 4.4 20.2 CapAppr 23.70 1.31 6.5 7.1 BalancA 23.00 0.57 4.1 20.0 ITSvs n 55.50 1.94 5.6 -2.9
ContCore I 25.64 0.78 4.4 26.6 Federated Hermes Int: Idx2050InsPre 20.83 0.60 5.6 15.0 Magin n 11.21 0.47 4.9 20.4
IntTF 10.84 0.09 2.0 0.3 EqtyDivd 18.99 0.39 4.3 23.5 EqGrA p/r 13.18 0.45 3.8 32.2 MdTchDevis n 63.83 2.46 3.7 24.2
DivIncom I 29.62 0.23 2.4 31.5 Idx2055InsPre 17.14 0.50 5.6 15.0 MAMun n 11.38 0.12 2.2 -2.2
MdCapVal 16.12 0.20 4.3 30.1 GlblAlloc 17.19 0.45 4.4 11.6 InsHiYld 8.62 0.12 4.0 1.7 GrOppA 93.34 5.53 5.6 16.7 Retail n 17.30 0.91 8.9 30.2
LgCpIdx I 46.57 1.23 4.2 27.0 Idx2020 Premier 14.69 0.28 4.3 NS Manager40 n 11.82 0.22 3.7 8.3
SmCapVal 9.82 0.36 7.4 38.1 HlthScOp 65.96 0.46 0.5 25.8 TtlRtnBdI 9.72 0.07 2.8 -1.7 NwInsghtA 26.59 0.86 4.3 12.9 Semiconductors r n 16.12 1.25 10.3 60.0
SelComunInfo 101.40 4.38 7.2 43.5 Idx2025 Premier 16.63 0.35 4.6 NS Manager60 n 13.57 0.34 4.6 12.4
American Century Inv: MdCpGrA 27.20 1.38 6.5 5.5 Federated Hermes IS: StrInA 11.03 0.13 2.9 0.8 Softwr n 20.56 0.95 4.5 21.7
SelLCVal 32.39 0.59 3.7 37.6 Idx2030 Premier 17.60 0.40 4.8 NS MidCap n 39.15 1.02 4.5 39.4
MultiAstIncome 9.88 0.16 3.7 3.1 KaufmnLCIS 20.59 0.74 4.9 4.3 Fidelity Advisor Fun: Tech n 18.91 1.13 6.0 27.3
DiscCoreVal n 31.77 0.44 3.6 23.9 StratInc I 21.24 0.29 3.5 0.4 Idx2035 Premier 19.69 0.51 5.2 NS MidCapEnIdx n 16.21 0.51 4.9 28.1
NatlMuni 10.21 0.14 2.8 -3.0 KaufmnSCI 44.43 2.47 6.9 6.0 InterDiscZ 41.70 1.26 5.7 6.5 MidCapStkK 39.19 1.03 4.5 39.8 UtilGr n 106.57 0.85 0.9 25.6
EqGro n 22.97 0.55 4.0 14.2 Columbia Class I2: Idx2040 Premier20.00 0.57 5.5 NS
ScTechOppA 36.64 1.91 7.2 15.1 StraValDivIS 6.01 0.01 3.3 25.2 Fidelity Advisor I: MuniInc n 12.19 0.16 2.8 -1.4 Fidelity Series:
EqInc n 9.02 0.08 3.0 17.3 DivIncom 30.14 0.22 2.3 31.7 Idx2045 Premier 20.79 0.60 5.6 NS
TotRet 10.19 0.11 3.3 -5.4 UltraShortI 8.98 0.01 0.3 1.8 NASDAQ n 139.63 6.43 5.9 22.4 Canada 13.90 0.38 5.9 30.9
Grwth n 37.08 1.54 4.4 19.5 Columbia Class I3: BalancI 23.60 0.59 4.1 21.0 Idx2050 Premier20.82 0.60 5.6 NS
BlackRock Funds III: Federated Hermes R: NewInsights Z 27.84 0.90 4.3 14.2 IntMuni Z 10.09 0.09 1.8 0.4
Heritage n 19.20 0.82 5.0 16.2 ContCore I3 26.31 0.80 4.4 27.0 ConsvIncmMuni I 9.99 0.01 0.3 1.4 Idx 2055 Premier 17.13 0.49 5.6 NS
MdCapVal n 16.10 0.20 4.3 29.4 iShS&P500IdxK468.95 12.36 4.2 27.6 KaufmnR 4.90 0.18 4.9 -6.1 FltRatel 9.10 0.06 1.6 8.1 NewMill n 41.42 1.26 4.7 33.7 FidelityAdviAsset:
iShUSAggBdIdxK 9.16 0.08 2.9 -5.7 DivIncom 30.19 0.22 2.3 31.9 Income n 10.25 0.13 3.1 2.1
OneChMod n 13.44 0.30 4.3 12.1 Federated Hermes R6: GrOppI 103.29 6.12 5.6 17.6 NewMkt n 11.83 0.18 3.0 -10.7 ADVAssetMan60 13.56 0.34 4.5 12.6
BlackRock Funds Inst: Credit Suisse Common: Fidelity Invest:
Select n 78.95 3.52 4.8 20.7 FedInstHYBondL 8.62 0.11 4.0 1.7 HthCarI 65.61 2.50 2.3 19.9 OTC n 13.56 0.59 5.7 26.1 First Eagle Funds:
AdvLgCapCore 16.72 0.48 3.9 25.4 ComdtyRet 24.92 0.78 -0.9 47.1 AggrInt n 22.59 1.04 8.2 7.3 OTC K 13.86 0.60 5.7 26.4
Ultra n 57.68 2.28 4.6 25.1 StrValL 6.01 0.01 3.3 25.3 IntlGr 17.16 0.70 8.1 10.1 GlbA 61.21 1.50 5.6 19.8
AilSectEq 9.13 0.30 4.6 33.4 Ovrse n 54.29 2.09 7.4 10.5
American Century R6: CAInsMun 11.96 0.13 2.0 -1.3 TtlRtnBdL 9.71 0.07 2.7 -1.7 NwInsghtI 27.73 0.90 4.2 13.8 OverseasA 23.65 0.60 5.3 8.9
D AMgr20% n 13.05 0.16 2.6 3.4
EmgMkts 24.37 0.89 9.4 -2.4 Fidelity: REIncmInst 11.55 0.23 4.1 3.9 PuritanK 21.31 0.51 4.1 21.5
MdCapVal 16.12 0.21 4.4 30.8 AMgr50% n 18.44 0.41 4.1 10.3 FPA Funds:
EqtyDivd 19.08 0.39 4.4 24.4 Davis Funds A: StrInI 11.19 0.13 3.0 1.5 Puritn n 21.34 0.52 4.1 21.2
SmCpVal 9.82 0.35 7.4 38.7 500IdxInstPrem n 138.74 3.66 4.2 27.7 AMgr70% n 23.61 0.65 4.9 14.9 NwInc n 9.56 0.05 1.1 1.1
FloRateIncPorIns 9.55 0.08 1.9 7.8 Total Bd 9.60 0.10 3.1 -2.5 RealE n 39.93 1.62 7.0 5.4
American Funds Cl A: NYVen A n 24.01 0.70 8.3 8.9 BalancedK6 12.31 0.31 4.1 22.2 AMgr85% n 21.78 0.68 5.4 18.0 FPA Funds Trust:
GlblAlloc 17.36 0.45 4.4 12.4 Fidelity Advisor M: RealEstInc n 11.60 0.22 4.0 3.8
2020TarRetA 12.55 0.18 3.1 10.8 Davis Funds C & Y: Contrafund K6 17.55 0.54 4.3 19.1 AstMgr30R n 11.10 0.18 3.3 5.8 SAIIntlMinVolInd 10.16 0.20 3.4 -3.4 FPACres Inst n 35.04 0.88 5.1 21.7
HiEqInc 28.25 0.47 4.2 25.2 EmgMktIdxInstPre n 10.21 0.29 8.3 -3.9 Balanced 23.37 0.58 4.1 19.2
2025TarRetA 13.91 0.22 3.3 12.2 NYVenY 24.92 0.73 8.3 9.7 Balanc n 23.88 0.60 4.2 21.2 SAILTTreBdIdx 8.13 0.12 7.1 -18.6 Franklin A1:
HlthScOp 70.38 0.50 0.5 26.8 ExtMktIdxInstPre n 67.39 3.36 6.9 15.2 EqGr 12.72 0.44 3.8 31.2
2030TarRetA 15.08 0.29 3.8 13.4 Del Invest Instl: BalancedK 23.88 0.60 4.2 21.5 SAIUSMinVolIndFd 16.94 0.19 2.4 20.5 CA TF A1 6.90 0.08 2.6 -2.4
MdCpGrEq 31.99 1.62 6.5 6.3 FidAdAsset 13.04 0.16 2.5 3.5 GrOppM 91.89 5.45 5.6 15.9
2035TarRetA 16.11 0.37 4.2 15.9 Value 18.91 0.08 2.6 21.4 BluCh n 120.23 7.05 6.9 24.8 SAIUSQtyIdx 15.76 0.29 2.9 27.3 Fed TF A1 10.82 0.15 2.9 -2.2
MultiAstIncome 9.89 0.16 3.7 3.9 FidAdEm 34.36 1.16 9.5 NS NwInsghtM 24.86 0.80 4.2 12.1
2040TarRetA 16.64 0.42 4.5 16.9 Deutsche DWS: BluChpGr K6 18.53 1.10 7.1 27.2 SCValueI 18.99 0.62 7.0 42.2 HiInc A1 1.67 0.03 3.7 4.9
NatlMuni 10.20 0.14 2.8 -2.3 FidSAI 8.78 0.12 3.7 NS Fidelity Advisor Z:
2045TarRetA 16.97 0.45 4.7 16.9 BluChpGrK 120.77 7.08 6.9 25.1 SmCapDisc n 24.58 0.93 7.1 28.7 HY TF A1 8.95 0.14 3.6 -1.9
ScTechOppInst 40.30 2.11 7.2 16.0 CoreEq n 27.11 0.75 4.2 25.7 FidSAIEmerg 11.66 0.30 7.5 NS AssetManager50% 18.38 0.41 4.1 10.6
2050TarRetA 16.60 0.46 4.8 16.3 CAMun n 12.12 0.13 2.4 -1.6 SmlCapO n 12.43 0.57 6.5 26.1 IncomeA1 2.35 0.04 4.0 19.3
StratIncOpptyIns 9.35 0.08 1.8 3.4 Diamond Hill Funds: FidSer5 7.92 0.04 2.9 NS AsstMngr70 23.57 0.65 4.8 15.1
AmcpA 31.77 1.32 5.6 10.7 CapAp n 33.25 1.06 4.3 32.8 SmlCpGrth n 25.13 1.22 6.2 16.3 NY TF A1 9.97 0.14 3.0 -4.1
StratMuniOppI 10.59 0.13 2.5 -4.3 LgCapI 30.51 0.67 5.1 23.6 FidSer0-5 9.33 0.03 0.5 NS CorporateBond 10.42 0.15 3.8 -5.6
AMutlA 49.59 0.47 2.4 27.3 CapDevO n 18.27 0.63 5.8 31.5 SmlCpGrth K6 13.42 0.65 6.3 17.8 US Gov A1 5.22 0.05 2.8 -6.9
TotRet 10.19 0.11 3.3 -4.5 LgCapY 30.53 0.67 5.1 24.0 FIDSerEmgMkt 8.51 0.27 9.9 -9.4 FloatRateHighInc 9.11 0.07 1.7 8.4
BondA 11.68 0.10 2.7 -1.9 CnvSc n 30.63 0.79 2.9 33.2 SmlCpGrth Z 25.38 1.23 6.2 16.7 Utils A1 21.89 0.13 1.5 19.0
BNY Mellon Funds: LongShortI 25.99 0.44 4.1 13.6 FidSerInt 8.60 0.06 2.3 NS GovtIncome 9.39 0.06 2.7 -6.5
BalA 29.70 0.49 3.3 15.5 Contra n 12.61 0.40 4.3 19.0 SmlCpVal n 18.99 0.62 7.0 42.2 Franklin Templeton:
CapIBA 65.05 0.73 3.3 13.5 Aprec n 37.69 0.96 4.1 31.1 Dimensional Fds: FidSerToMarket 13.22 0.40 4.7 25.6 GrOpp 104.64 6.21 5.6 18.0 ContraK 12.65 0.40 4.3 19.2 Srs1000ValIndRet 14.41 0.28 4.5 24.0
CapWA 16.70 0.34 3.6 -10.8 Dr500In n 45.45 1.19 4.2 25.8 2TGlFxd 9.54 0.01 0.3 -1.8 FIDZroExtMktIx n 11.24 0.48 6.8 23.3 InvestGradeBd 7.29 0.07 3.2 -2.9 CpInc n 9.33 0.15 3.6 13.0 TgtModA 13.38 NA NA NA
SrsBlChGroRetail n 10.66 0.61 6.8 28.0
CapWGrA 54.45 1.60 5.6 14.2 Dreyf n 13.75 0.45 5.0 35.9 5GlbFxdInc 9.89 0.02 0.6 -5.7 FIDZroLgCpIx n 13.97 0.38 4.3 26.5 NewMktsIncFdZ 11.82 0.18 2.9 -10.6 DisEq n 47.69 1.83 4.4 20.3 FrankTemp/Frank Adv:
SrsCommStrt 104.39 3.40 -0.9 41.2
EupacA 52.66 2.04 7.4 4.0 DreyMid r Inv n 28.22 1.00 6.2 28.7 DFARlEst 39.06 1.62 6.5 6.9 Flex 500 Index 17.05 0.45 4.2 27.7 RE Income 11.54 0.22 4.1 4.2 DivGth n 29.93 0.61 3.0 17.9 SrsEmrgMkt 17.09 0.58 9.4 -4.9 CA TF Adv 6.89 0.08 2.6 -2.0
FdInvA 63.21 1.73 4.9 21.2 GlFxIncI 19.15 0.16 2.1 -1.9 EmgMkt 27.14 0.87 7.7 2.4 FlexIntIdx 12.03 0.38 7.2 6.5 StkSelAllCap 57.85 2.01 4.8 27.4 DivIntl n 38.95 1.44 6.9 7.6 SrsGlobal 13.25 0.42 7.3 6.6 CvtScAdv 19.98 0.45 3.7 34.0
GBalA 33.79 0.72 4.0 6.9 InstS&PStkIdx I 55.16 1.45 4.2 27.0 EmgMktSoCoEq 13.53 0.40 7.2 0.9 FlexUSBdIdx 9.22 0.08 2.9 -5.8 Fidelity Freedom: DivIntl K6 12.52 0.46 6.7 9.1 SrsIntlGrw 15.45 0.66 8.3 13.6 Dynat Adv 102.49 6.52 6.2 8.1
GovtA 12.51 0.06 2.1 -1.5 IntlStkI 22.01 0.84 7.3 9.3 EmgMktVa 28.07 0.72 6.1 8.8 Freedom2060K 11.69 0.38 6.2 18.1 FF2010 n 13.22 0.21 3.7 4.7 DivIntlK 38.86 1.44 6.8 8.0 SrsGroCoRetail 14.61 0.64 6.1 44.9 Growth Adv 107.51 3.77 4.4 21.7
GwthA 52.58 2.20 6.2 17.9 IntlStkY 21.74 0.84 7.4 9.5 EmMktCorEq 21.58 0.66 7.1 5.9 GlexUSIdxInstPre n 13.46 0.42 7.3 6.5 FF2015 n 10.73 0.20 4.2 6.3 DivStkO n 26.98 0.88 4.7 34.2 SrsIntlSmCp 15.72 0.61 5.9 10.2 IncomeAdv 2.33 0.04 4.1 20.0
HI TrA 9.33 0.12 3.2 7.9 SmMidCpGrI 24.18 1.06 6.2 9.8 EmMktSmCp 21.22 0.46 4.9 14.2 GrowthCompanyK6 16.35 0.73 6.2 41.1 FF2020 n 13.36 0.29 4.7 7.7 EmrMkt n 34.40 1.16 9.5 3.0 SrsIntlVal 10.69 0.36 6.6 20.1 RisDv Adv 84.47 1.22 2.4 34.1
HiInMuniA 14.86 0.22 3.3 -0.5 BNY Mellon Funds Tru: Fixd 10.08 0.02 0.3 -0.6 InflPrBdIndInsPr n 9.17 0.03 1.7 4.4 FF2025 n 12.31 0.29 5.0 9.2 Eq Inc n 66.00 1.03 3.5 29.7 STBF n 8.26 0.01 0.7 -0.2 SmCpValAdv 56.91 1.87 6.8 28.5
ICAA 43.06 1.03 4.4 24.6 MCMultiStrM 16.75 0.53 5.7 24.1 GblAll60 40Inst 19.25 0.38 3.8 14.9 IntlIdxInstPrem n 44.07 1.46 7.0 10.1 FF2030 n 15.40 0.38 5.3 11.2 EqDivIncm n 26.77 0.46 4.5 28.4 StkSelSmCp n 29.82 1.37 6.4 31.5 Utils Adv 22.11 0.13 1.5 19.6
IncoA 23.32 0.25 3.0 18.2 NtlIntmMuni 12.96 0.13 2.0 -0.6 GlEqInst 27.79 0.81 5.5 24.6 IntlIndex n 10.50 0.33 7.0 7.0 FF2035 n 13.30 0.38 5.7 15.0 Fidel n 60.44 1.94 3.7 25.6 StkSlcACap n 58.26 2.02 4.7 27.1 FrankTemp/Franklin A:
56 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Industrials 11:00
11:30
33865.48
33914.89
33584.00
33543.45
33717.45
33788.37
34087.02
34108.15
34237.80
34235.05
NYSE Amer Off
NASD Up
3,850 1,685 3,471 1,635 2,172
3,431,985 3,707,433 4,212,746 4,035,848 2,908,205
34925 12:00 33894.69 33546.51 33794.64 34142.80 34197.03 NASD Off 1,671,198 914,818 991,904 1,588,523 2,104,475
12:30 33851.55 33524.52 33836.17 34274.04 34223.29 NYSE Arca UP 182,008 175,327 210,166 289,006 181,384
Week's NYSE Arca Off 134,636 76,776 48,741 96,673 104,955
Components Change 1:00 33804.50 33564.28 33821.59 34254.37 34210.52
1:30 33768.23 33579.50 33876.61 34118.58 34159.08 % (QCHA) +.75 +1.16 +1.31 +1.53 +.61
3M 2.79 % (QACH) +1.69 +1.17 +1.17 +1.39 +2.30
2:00 33660.33 33634.26 33857.41 34277.50 34245.77
American Express 5.59 33950 2:30 33664.56 33644.60 33872.21 34210.93 34233.51
% (QCHAQ) +1.76 +2.55 +2.37 +2.23 +1.18
Amgen -3.47 3:00 33558.20 33611.67 33907.28 34201.71 34233.93 Market Advance/Decline Totals
Apple 5.14 3:30 33516.26 33626.13 33918.40 34163.25 34269.92 NYSE NYSE
Boeing 1.13 Weekly Comp. NYSE Amer Nasdaq Arca
Close 33517.65 33704.10 33973.01 34189.97 34302.61
Total Issues 3,369 324 5,323 1,955
Caterpillar 9.60 32975 High (t) 34095.69 33841.42 34126.77 34387.56 34503.07 Advances 2,822 256 4,152 1,783
Chevron 1.00 Low (t) 33375.49 33297.91 33529.31 33717.02 33778.87 Declines 499 62 1,051 161
Cisco Systems 0.56 High (a) 33935.11 33726.54 33974.69 34292.67 34342.32 Unchanged 48 6 120 11
Coca-Cola -1.97 Low (a) 33487.66 33421.80 33711.04 33792.10 33915.49 New Highs 256 12 373 70
Disney 5.48 Change –112.96 +186.45 +268.91 +216.96 +112.64 New Lows 28 8 116 29
Dow 3.66 32000 Week ended last Friday compared to previous Friday
Goldman Sachs 25.92 Theoretical (t): High 34503.07 Low 33297.91
Home Depot 13.68 Actual (a): High 34342.32 Low 33421.80 NYSE Composite Daily Breadth
Honeywell Intl 6.34 Daily Jan 9 10 11 12 13
IBM 2.19 31025 Issues Traded 3,221 3,211 3,220 3,225 3,205
Intel 1.38 Dow Jones 20 Transport (divisor: 0.16343894576034) Advances 1,907 2,219 2,396 2,372 1,925
Johnson & Johnson -6.82 Declines 1,194 877 707 746 1,167
Open (t) 13927.16 13990.42 14140.57 14368.00 14235.93 Unchanged 120 115 117 107 113
JPMorgan Chase 5.07 Open (a) 13893.02 14002.11 14090.22 14342.08 14328.07 New Highs 100 61 81 108 104
McDonald's -0.58
Merck -2.59 30050 10:00 13995.44 14005.55 14230.46 14265.65 14264.52 New Lows 9 6 5 12 6
10:30 14071.31 13993.77 14202.46 14320.55 14286.24 Blocks - primary 4,319 4,246 4,640 4,423 4,094
Microsoft 14.30 Total (000) - primary 915,603 779,396 857,218 861,652 774,903
11:00 14150.64 13861.84 14221.46 14245.62 14327.53
Nike Cl B 4.32 Total (000) 4,311,775 3,851,036 4,303,367 4,440,262 3,939,706
11:30 14182.20 13991.65 14229.33 14269.76 14300.90
Procter & Gamble -3.04
12:00 14178.38 13973.98 14210.34 14302.36 14314.37 NYSE American Composite
Salesforce 9.00 29075 12:30 14178.57 13957.15 14255.84 14326.63 14304.75 Daily Jan 9 10 11 12 13
Travelers Cos 0.05
1:00 14158.85 13970.24 14249.69 14335.23 14314.52 Issues Traded 308 304 302 302 304
UnitedHealth Group -0.43
1:30 14163.39 13967.17 14313.11 14353.90 14315.59 Advances 181 187 180 214 186
Verizon Communications -0.33
2:00 14107.72 14008.93 14305.75 14373.78 14331.35 Declines 106 101 109 72 102
Visa Cl A 5.31
Walgreens Boots Alliance 0.17 28100 2:30 14108.89 14037.12 14253.67 14402.92 14334.70 Unchanged 21 16 13 16 16
3:00 14088.76 14045.45 14276.45 14387.39 14325.90 New Highs 2 2 5 4 3
Walmart -1.49 July August September October November December January New Lows 2 4 2 2 ...
3:30 14034.45 14027.96 14280.70 14362.62 14343.29
Blocks - primary 125 82 90 96 89
Close 14018.51 14055.59 14304.24 14403.18 14364.39
Total (000) - primary 11,322 7,969 8,418 9,785 8,939
High (t) 14244.31 14135.37 14384.67 14494.22 14426.34 Total (000) 142,209 116,980 113,973 135,475 133,581
Transportation Low (t)
High (a)
13854.50 13835.47 14063.39 14166.76
14201.21 14066.20 14314.24 14426.13
14170.49
14383.21 Nasdaq
15500 Low (a) 13893.02 13859.49 14090.22 14211.46 14240.62 Daily Jan 9 10 11 12 13
Week's Change +142.32 +37.08 +248.65 +98.94 –38.79 Issues Traded 4,817 4,783 4,854 4,794 4,844
Advances 2,759 3,247 3,198 3,269 2,895
Components Change 15100 Theoretical (t): High 14494.22 Low 13835.47 Declines 1,842 1,326 1,438 1,308 1,671
Alaska Air Group 5.01 Actual (a): High 14426.13 Low 13859.49 Unchanged 216 210 218 217 278
American Airlines Group 2.84 14700 New Highs 117 102 127 139 121
Avis Budget Group 24.60 New Lows 38 39 30 26 19
CH Robinson Worldwide 0.32 Blocks - primary 31,148 32,689 36,837 40,660 34,314
14300 Dow Jones 15 Utilities (divisor: 1.27924906167720)
Total (000) 5,132,192 4,710,689 5,284,397 5,681,244 5,077,998
CSX 0.22
Open (t) 979.04 986.59 992.68 1002.96 988.21
Delta Air 2.17 NYSE Arca Composite
Expeditors Intl of Wash 0.74 13900 Open (a) 979.54 987.33 992.38 1003.30 989.89
10:00 980.53 985.01 998.12 999.70 985.36 Daily Jan 9 10 11 12 13
FedEx 2.86 Issues Traded 1,765 1,732 1,753 1,788 1,744
10:30 987.22 986.26 997.58 999.72 988.31
JB Hunt Transport 0.76 13500 Advances 1,201 1,280 1,509 1,590 1,271
11:00 987.82 980.13 998.21 998.10 985.76
JetBlue Airways 0.96 Declines 536 432 230 192 456
11:30 989.62 983.98 1000.82 999.64 985.27
Kirby Corp -0.49 13100 12:00 993.29 981.18 997.89 997.51 986.13
Unchanged 28 20 14 6 17
Landstar System 2.57 New Highs 15 8 23 43 40
Matson -0.47 12:30 991.76 982.54 997.87 1000.41 986.47 New Lows 8 9 8 7 14
Norfolk Southern -0.66 12700 1:00 989.80 982.60 998.58 998.95 985.90 Blocks - primary 1,586 1,348 1,196 1,493 1,348
Old Dominion Freight 14.65 1:30 990.31 982.99 998.65 1001.00 988.90 Total (000) - primary 333,210 252,980 260,714 385,754 292,132
Ryder System 7.97 12300 2:00 988.07 983.76 1001.99 999.16 989.26 Total (000) 1,798,441 1,364,902 1,639,820 1,878,983 1,557,162
Southwest Airlines 1.91 2:30 992.22 986.34 999.95 1001.90 989.20
3:00 993.59 985.92 1002.52 999.61 990.74
Union Pacific
United Airlines
1.22
9.41
11900
3:30
Close
990.75
988.42
987.71 1002.89
991.48 1002.11
995.94
993.88
989.92
988.60
Other Market Indexes
United Parcel Service B 3.20
11500 High (t) 996.62 993.76 1005.45 1005.73 994.03
Daily 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
July August September October November December January Low (t) 977.59 978.28 990.69 990.62 981.02 NYSE Amer Comp 4072.78 4108.91 4134.22 4213.42 4275.54
High (a) 995.83 992.46 1003.67 1003.30 991.99 AmMajorMkt 2996.81 3013.82 3033.86 3050.06 3062.45
15 Book Book
Investor Sentiment Readings New Listings
Earns Divs. Value Earns Divs. Value
10 NYSE
Am Exp 9.95 2.08 29.14 Johnson&John 7.18 4.45 28.16 High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market
s Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market None
5 Amgen 12.47 7.76 12.00 JPMorgChase 12.08 4.00 88.07 bottoms.
DXY (102.18) Apple 6.11 0.91 3.84 McDonalds 7.94 5.52 (6.17) NYSE American
0 Last Week 2 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago
Boeing (14.25) Suspended (25.47) Merck Co 6.01 2.80 15.11
EURO in $ None
-5 Caterpillar 13.77 4.62 30.76 Microsoft 9.28 2.54 22.31 Consensus Index
s Chevron Corp 15.37 5.68 72.06 Nike Inc 3.55 1.255 9.73 Nasdaq
-10 Cisco Sys 2.77 1.52 9.79 Proc Gam 5.77 3.6097 19.11 Consensus Bullish Sentiment 60% 58% 59%
Coca Cola 2.29 1.74 5.32 3M Co 11.48 5.96 26.31 American Lithium (AMLI)
s
-15 Disney Walt 1.72 0.00 48.71 Salesforce.com 0.28 0.00 58.78 AAII Index Atlas Lithium (ATLX)
YEN in $ Dow 7.71 2.80 24.71 Travelers Cos 13.68 3.67 119.76 MGO Global (MGOL)
-20 Goldman Sachs 37.55 9.00 297.50 UnitedHealthGrp 21.19 6.40 76.26 Bullish 24.0% 20.5% 26.5% Skyward Specialty (SKWD)
-25 Home Depot 16.59 7.60 (1.64) Verizon 4.61 2.585 19.48
F M A M J J A S O N D J
Honeywell 7.53
IBM 1.37
3.97 27.12
6.59 21.05
Visa
Walgreens
6.99 1.575 16.32
(3.44) 1.915 27.06
Bearish
Neutral
39.9
36.0
42.0
37.5
47.6
25.9
Trading
Source: Tullett Prebon Intel 3.25 1.46 23.44 Wal-mart 3.24 2.24 30.15
Market Vane Suspended
Transportation Stocks NYSE
Bullish Consensus 39% 37% 37% UserTesting (USER)
AlaskaAirGroup 0.40 Suspended 30.19 Kirby Corp (3.84) Nil 48.02 TIM Group Market Sentiment Nasdaq
Distributions & Offerings 144 Filings AmericanAirlines
AvisBudgetGrp
(2.59) Suspended (11.33)
53.71 Nil (3.93)
Landstar Sys
Matson Inc
12.14
33.91
1.10 22.87
1.22 40.67 Indicator 47.0% 45.3% 46.3%
Imago BioSciences (IMGO)
Peak Bio (PKBO)
C.H. Robinson 8.27 2.26 15.65 Norf Southern 13.60 4.96 56.80 Pioneer Merger (PACX)
Secondary Distributions of common stocks SEC Form 144 must be filed by holders of restricted securities (also called letter stock) who intend to Powered Brands (POW)
CSX Corp 1.87 0.40 6.13 Old Dominion 11.67 1.20 32.00 Sources: Consensus Inc.; American Association of
sell shares. Shares Indicated: the number to be sold. Sales Date: the approximate date of the sale. Statera Biopharma (STAB)
FD Technology 4,025,000 $ $18 Delta Air Lines 2.04 Suspended 6.07 Ryder Sys 16.22 2.40 52.02 Individual Investors; Market Vane; TIM Group
(Sometimes shares aren't sold, even though their owner has filed a Form144.) Source: Thomson
Source: Dealogic LLC, New York City; (212) 577-4400. Reuters Expeditors Int'l
FedEx
9.52 1.34 20.90
12.73 4.20 95.98
Southwest Air
Un Pacific
1.28
11.21
Nil 17.59
5.08 22.17 Name
Coming U.S. Auctions Company Sym
Shares
Indicated $ Value
Sale
Date Seller Title
Hunt (JB) 9.56 1.60 29.67 UPS 12.76 5.58 16.38
Changes
Yields (%)
When Issued* Last Auction Olaplex OLPX 1,000,000 6,050,000 1/9/23 Walden, Tiffany CO
JetBlue Air (1.59) Nil 12.03 United Airlines (2.37) Nil 15.53
Arms Index NYSE
Tuesday Zuora ZUO 725,000 4,611,000 1/3/23 Tzuo, Tien AF Utility Stocks The Arms index, also known as the short term trading index, Vital Energy (VTLE), formerly
is a number derived by dividing one quotient into another Laredo Petroleum (LPI)
$60.0 bil 3-month 4.607 4.609 Bowlero BOWL 600,000 8,004,000 1/6/23 Shannon, Thomas AF quotient. The numerator in the index is the number of
$48.0 bil 6-month 4.788 4.801 AES Corp. (0.47) 0.632 2.96 Exelon 2.71 1.35 35.13 advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks. NYSE American
Samsara IOT 279,261 3,471,214 1/3/23 Calderon, Benjamin AF As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the
Am Elec 4.83 3.15 44.49 FirstEnergy 2.05 1.56 15.21 composite volume of advancing stocks divided by the None
Wednesday Novocure Ltd NVCR 212,500 23,106,230 1/5/23 Danziger, Asaf CEO composite volume of declining stocks.
AmericanWaterWorks 7.25 2.5675 40.18 NextEra Energy 1.94 1.70 18.95 Nasdaq
$12.0 bil 19-yr 10ms 3.512 3.579 Flywire FLYW 194,833 4,662,354 1/3/23 Massaro, Michael CEO Atmos Energy 5.66 2.78 59.71 Xcel Energy 3.06 1.95 28.70 GD Culture (GDC), formerly
Daily 1/9 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
Keurig Dr Pepper KDP 125,000 4,411,250 1/6/23 Gamgort, Robert AF Con Ed 4.78 3.16 56.60 Pub Sv Ent 2.70 2.16 28.65 Code Chain New Continent
Thursday DominionEnergy 2.79 2.67 31.51 Sempra Energy 7.13 4.58 79.17 (CCNC)
Baker Hughes BKR 124,618 3,738,540 1/6/23 Worrell, Brian FO NYSE .98 .73 1.29 .93 1.06 GeneDx (WGS), formerly
$17.0 bil 10-year 3.447 3.499 Duke Energy 4.96 3.98 61.55 Southn Co. 1.36 2.70 25.36 Sema4 (SMFR)
Adient Plc ADNT 100,000 3,834,000 1/9/23 Del Grosso, Douglas AF NYSE American .64 .43 1.27 .66 .77
Edison Int'l 1.90 2.8375 36.57 Princeton Bancorp (BPRN),
* As of Friday afternoon. Sunrun RUN 100,000 2,492,000 1/3/23 Fenster, Edward O Nasdaq .73 .60 .52 .98 1.25 formerly Bank of Princeton
January 16, 2023 BARRON’S 59
Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Industry Groups CBOE Put / Call Ratio Foreign Exchange
Foreign
Currency
Foreign
Currency
U.S. $ in
Foreign
U.S. $ in
Foreign
F
Ally Financial (Q4) 0.99 2.02
Money Rates
Delta Market Pulse of the Economy
Regions Financial (Q4)
State Street (Q4)
0.65
1.96
0.43
2.00
Latest Week Prev. Week Yr Ago
Bullish
Help Wanted Online –Ads (thous,) Dec 6,741.1 6,496.2 8,657.6 –22.14 3 months 4.70 4.58 0.16
Baltic Dry Index Jan 13 946 1,130 1,764 –46.37 SVB Financial January 19 6:00PM Q4 6 months 5.05 4.93 0.20
Small Business Optimism Index Dec 89.8 91.9 98.9 –9.20 United Airlines January 18 10:30AM Q4
Wholesale sales, (mil. $) Nov 693,722 r697,748 638,366 8.67 Libor Interbank Rate
Source: CCBN, www.ccbn.com
Construction
Current Sentiment 1 month 4.45 4.40 0.10
Inventories
No Activity for this Week 3 months 4.79 4.81 0.24
75.2%
6 months 5.10 5.20 0.40
Domestic crude oil, (thous. bbls) Comm. (Excl. Lease Stck)
Gasoline, (thous. bbls)
Jan 6 439,607 420,646 413,298 6.37
Jan 6 226,776 222,662 240,748 –5.80
Other Indicators Barron’s 50-Stock Average 12 months 5.36 5.56 0.73
Citi Research Panic–Euphoria Reading Jan 13 –0.11 –0.15 0.55 …. This index is a weighted average of 50 leading issues. Useful in secu- Foreign Prime Rates
Wholesale inventories, (mil. $) Nov 933,076 r924,226 771,833 20.89 rity valuation. Source: Barron's Stats
Last Week Orders a-1997 equals 100. b-1982-84 equals 100. c-1982 equals 100. f-1996 equals 100. h- Canada 6.45 6.45 2.45
benchmark revision, 2016 equals 100. r-Revised. Jan 12 Jan 5 Jan Yr-to-Yr Germany 2.50 2.50 0.00
64.6%
No Activity for this Week 2023 2023 2022 % Chg Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Switzerland 1.50 1.50 0.00
S&P 500 Index 3983.17 3808.10 4541.08 –12.29 Britain 3.50 3.50 0.25
Barron’s 50 Index 11643.96 11269.34 11298 3.06
Other Money Rates
2 Weeks ago Projected quarterly earn 143.71 143.71 139.76 2.83
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
Annualized projected earn 574.84 574.84 559.05 2.83 30-Year Fixed Conv 5.45 6.01 2.97
American Debt and Deficits Adjustable Mortgage Rates
61.6%
Annualized projected P/E 20.26 19.60 20.2 0.23 Bank money market-z 0.26 0.26 0.07
Five-year average earn 480.58 480.58 445.35 7.91 Interest Checking-z 0.06 0.06 0.03
Latest Preceding Year Ago Yr over Yr 6-Month Certif-z 0.94 0.94 0.09
Jan 13 Jan 6 Yr. Ago YOY % Chg Five-year average P/E 24.23 23.45 25.4 –4.50 12-Month Certif-z 1.40 1.39 0.14
Report Report Report % Chg
3 Weeks ago 1 Year Treas Bills 4.73 4.73 0.41 1053.66 Year-end earn 603.20 603.20 537.33 12.26 30 Month Accounts-z 1.20 1.19 0.18
Federal Budget Deficit (bil. $)-a 1,359FY'24 1,372FY'23 1,837FY'22 …. 2 Year Treas Notes 4.36 4.35 0.83 425.30 5-Year Certificates-z 1.16 1.16 0.26
Year-end P/E 19.30 18.68 21.0 –8.20
Current Market Exposure: Budget Surplus/Deficit (bil. $)-b, December –85.00 –248.54 –21.30 299.06 3 Year Treas Notes 4.11 4.18 1.10 273.64
Year-end earns yield, % 5.18 5.35 4.8 8.93 U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
100% Equities, 0% Bonds, 0% Trade Deficit (bil. $, sa)-c, November –61.51 r-77.85 –77.98 -21.12 5 Year Treas Notes 3.85 3.96 1.43 169.23
Cash Treasury Gross Public Debt. (bil. $)-d 31,375.1 31,375.5 29,782.3 5.35 10 Year Treas Notes 3.69 3.86 1.70 117.06 Best grade bond yields, % 4.29 4.19 2.60 65.00 Long-Term (5yrs+) 2.10 2.10 0.10
Treasury Statutory Debt Limit (bil. $)-d 31,381.5 31,381.5 …. …. 20 Year Treas Bds 3.96 4.12 2.11 87.68
Source: Delta Investment Consumer Installment Debt (bil. $)-e, November 4,757.2 4,729.3 4,412.3 7.82 Bond yields/stock ylds, % 0.83 0.78 0.55 51.48
Management 11th District % Nov Discontinued .... 0.218 .... c-Annualized yields, adjusted for constant maturity, reported by the Federal
FHFA PMMS+ 6.91 6.91 0.87 694.25 Actual year-end divs 238.05 238.78 222.74 6.87 Reserve on a weekly average basis. Sources: Tullett Prebon information, Ltd.
www.deltaim.com, (415) Sources: a-Office of Management and Budget, b-Monthly Treasury Statement, c-Monthly Commerce Dept. Factset. z-Bankrate.com.
249-6337 Report, d-Daily Treasury Statement, e-Monthly Federal Reserve Release. Fed annualized yields adjusted for constant maturity. Actual yr-end divs yld, % 2.04 2.12 1.97 3.70
60 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
Barron’s Gold Mining Index Weekly Bond Statistics Dividend Payment Boosts Top 5 Insider Purchases by
12-Month Year Week %
High Low
1228.34 684.61 Gold mining
1/12
971.94
1/5
892.22 1074.87
Ago Chg.
+8.94
New Offerings, (mil $) (v) Last Week Prev. Week Yr Ago Adjusted % Record Ex-Div Payment Company in 2023
Corporate (z) 37,232 r69,374 41,526 Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Yield Period To From Increase Date Date Date Number of Number of Avg.
Municipal (z) 5,274 r767 0 Company Sym Insiders Shares $ Value Price
Apogee Enterprises-APOG (Nasdaq) 2.1 Q .24 .22 9.1 1-31 1-30 2-15
Best Grade Bonds-y Ares Dynamic Credit Alloc-ARDC (NYSE) 10.6 M .1075 .1025 4.9 1-20 1-19 1-31 Compass Diversified CODI 8 44,103 843,708 $19.13
Gold & Silver Prices (Barron's index of 10 high-grade corporate bonds.) Bank of America Pfd E-BACpE (NYSE) 5.4 Q .31664 .25556 23.9 1-31 1-30 2-15
Heico
Biote
HEI
BTMD
8 9,200 1,444,999 $157.07
4 326,350 979,050 $3.00
Handy & Harman 1/13 1/6 Year Ago 4.29 4.19 2.45 Bank of America Pfd. 2-BMLpH (NYSE) 4.8 Q .34412 .23595 45.8 2-15 2-14 2-28 Aim Immunotech AIM 3 322,583 100,001 $0.31
Gold, troy ounce 1907.15 1852.20 1822.95 Interm-Grade Bonds-y Codorus Valley Bancorp-CVLY (Nasdaq) 2.7 Q .16 .15 6.7 1-24 1-23 2-14 Brt Apartments BRT 3 335,249 6,679,563 $19.92
Silver, troy ounce 24.11 23.85 22.95 Franklin Ltd Duration IT-FTF (NYSE AMER ) 11.8 M .0595 .0593 0.3 1-19 1-18 1-31
(Barron's index of 10 medium-grade corporate bonds.) Top 5 Insider Sales by Company in 2023
Base for pricing gold and silver contents of shipments and for making 4.99 5.29 2.90 Gladstone Capital-GLAD (Nasdaq) 8.9 M .075 .07 7.1 1-20 1-19 1-31
refining settlement. United Therapeutics UTHR 7 53,850 14,688,314 $272.76
Gladstone Land-LAND (Nasdaq) 2.8 M .0459 .0458 0.2 1-20 1-19 1-31
Confidence Index Mongodb MDB 6 56,899 11,359,435 $199.64
Coins Price Premium $ Premium %
Lakeland Financial-LKFN (Nasdaq) 2.4 Q .46 .40 15.0 1-25 1-24 2-06
Monolithic Power Systems MPWR 5 33,356 11,506,486 $344.96
(High-grade index divided by intermediate-grade index; decline in Liberty All-Star Growth-ASG (NYSE) 8.7 Q .11 .10 10.0 1-20 1-19 3-06
Krugerrand 1995.24 76.74 4.00 latter vs. former generally indicates rising confidence, pointing to Moderna MRNA 4 144,000 25,583,709 $177.66
Maple Leaf 2014.43 95.93 5.00 higher stocks.) Plains All Amer Pipeline-PAA (Nasdaq) 8.9 Q .2675 .2175 23.0 1-31 1-30 2-14
Mexican Peso 2321.14 8.00 0.35 Novocure NVCR 4 260,537 28,528,436 $109.50
86.0 79.1 84.6 Plains GP Holdings-PAGP (Nasdaq) 8.3 Q .2675 .2175 23.0 1-31 1-30 2-14
Austria Crown 1883.51 3.00 0.16
Austria Phil 2014.43 95.93 5.00 Royalty Pharma-RPRX (Nasdaq) 2.0 Q .20 .19 5.3 2-16 2-15 3-15
U.S. Eagles 2014.43 95.93
Premium is the amount over the value of the gold content in the coin.
5.00 Other Confidence Indicators:
(Index of total return from active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec.
31, 1996=100.)
Dividend Payment Reductions 2015
2014
2013
2012
1295.75
1385.00
1693.75
1791.75
Jan.
Mar.
Jan.
Oct.
22
14
02
04
1049.40
1142.00
1192.00
1540.00
Dec.
Nov.
June
May
17
05
28
30
Adjusted % Record Ex-Div Payment
272.70 266.62 309.84 2011 1895.00 Sept. 06 1319.00 Jan. 28
Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Yield Period To From Decrease Date Date Date
10
Handy & Harman Gold Price Bond Buyer 20 Bond Index BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty-BPT (NYSE) 29.4 Q .29743 .703137 -57.7 % 1-17 1-13 1-23
0
(Index of yields of 20 general obligation municipal bonds.) Knot Offshore Partners-KNOP (NYSE) 1.6 Q .026 .52 -95.0 % 1-26 1-25 2-09 Week’s Week’s
3.45 3.66 2.19 MV Oil Trust-MVO (NYSE) 14.5 Q .41 .685 -40.1 % 1-17 1-13 1-25
Bond Buyer Municipal Bond Index
Dividend Dividend
-10
(Index of 40 actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues
are changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the
Stock Splits/Dividends Special Dividends Payment Payment
Record Ex-Div Pay Record Ex-Div Pay
market. Source: The Bond Buyer Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Amount Date Date Date Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Amount Date Date Date This list includes payouts on This list includes payouts on
-20 4.43 4.61 3.50 common stocks. common stocks.
NONE National Bankshares-NKSH (NCM ) 1.00 1-23 1-20 2-03
Opera ADR-OPRA (Nasdaq) 0.80 1-30 1-27 2-09 NYSE NASDAQ
Stock/Bond Yield Gap-s
-30 Monday (January 16) Monday (January 16)
(Difference between yield on highest-grade corporate bonds and
yield on stocks on the DJIA.)
-2.28 r-2.14 -0.69
Week’s Ex- Week’s Ex- U.S. Treasury Bills Osisko Gold Royalties
TFI International
.041
.35
BancFirst .40
-40
Yield on DJ Equal Weight US Corp Bond Idx:
Dividend Dividend Maturity Bid Asked
Wkly
Chg.
Ask
Yld.
Thermo Fisher Scientific .30
Vermilion Energy .059
Riverview Bancorp .06
Week’s FTACEmeraldA
FtacHeraA
OCA Acqn A
ODP
ViridianTherap
ViscogliosiBros
TreasureGlobal
VirginOrbit
FinVolution
Fluor
RenaissanceRe
RocketInternetA
Thermon
Tidewater
WhiteMtnIns
WilliamsRowland
Lows
Gaming&Leisure PanaceaAcqnII VPC Impact II A Zenvia FusionAcqnIIA Schlumberger TortoiseEcoIII A XFinancial
GE HealthCare PathfinderA WeatherfordIntl ZivoBiosci GSquaredIIA SculptorAcqnIA TotalEnergies Xylem
Genasys Paya WelsbachTech Zscaler GSquaredI A SeaDrill TrajectoryAlphaA YPF
NYSE GenesisUnicornA PennsWoodsBncp WillisLease GlobalIndemnity SnapOn TransDigm YumChina
NYSE
GlobalinkInvt PepperLimeA WillisTowers GlobeLife SoJerseyInd Transocean
256 28
NEW LOWS
GoalAcqns PerdoceoEduc Winmark NEW HIGHS GrafAcqnIV StandexInt TristarAcqnI AmpriusTech
GoresIX A PerionNetwork WorldwideWebbA AECOM GraniteConstr StudioCity TritonIntl BaxterIntl
New Highs New Lows GpoFinGalicia Pinduoduo WynnResorts AP Acqn A Greif B SumitomoMits twoA BrandywineRealty
GrAeroportuario PineTechA XPACAcqn ATI Griffon SunlandsTech USA Compression
Nasdaq CityOfficeREIT
GrandCanyonEduc Plexus Xunlei AcropolisInfrA GpoAeroportuar Supernova III A Unifirst D-WaveQuantum
373 116
GreenlightCapRe PlutonianAcqn YottaAcqn AffiliatedMgrs GpoAeroportSur TJX UnitedRentals DesignerBrands
GX Acqn II A PortageFintechA AfricanGoldA GpoSupervielle TailwindIntlA Valaris
NEW LOWS Enviva
H World PoseidaTherap AlamosGold HavertyFurn A
New Highs New Lows AdicetBio TakedaPharm Vipshop KnotOffshore
H&E Equipment Potbelly AlbanyIntl HavertyFurn
AdTheorent Tapestry VishayPrecision L3HarrisTech
NYSE American HennessyCapVI PowellIndustries AltaEquipment HelixEnergy
AltisourcePortf TaylorMorrison VistaEnergy LocalBounti
Hibbett ProfDiversity Hess
12 8
Amedisys AltC Acqn TechnipFMC VitesseEnergy NewYorkCityReit
Hologic ProjectEnReimag AltimarAcqnIIIA Hims&HersHealth
AmVirtualCloud Tecnoglass VivintSmartHome VerticalAerospace
Immunovant PrometheusBio Ametek HowmetAerospace
ArcutisBiotherap TejonRanch WabashNational VitalEnergy
New Highs New Lows
IndlTechII A ProspectorCapA ApolloStratII A IRSA
ArqitQuantum Terex WarburgPincusI-B A VitesseEnergy
Only includes COMMON and REIT stocks InsightEnt Pwr&Digital II A Aramark IberePharmA
Arvinas iHuman
IntelligentMedA Qomolangma ArcosDorados
NYSE American BeiGene InterParfums RainOncology
AscentSolar
AtlisMotor ArctosNorthA
InFinTAcqnA Monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average
Intevac Rambus Ingevity
BetterWorld Biolase AresAcqnA The following table lists the monthly average of the Price/Earnings Ratio and Dividend Yield as reported
NEW HIGHS InsightAcqnA
BioMarinPharm IntlGeneralIns RCI Hospitality BiondVaxPharm BGSF weekly in Barron's Market Laboratory. The change is the difference between the recent month's close
AdamsRes InvestcorpIndiaA ReconTech JattAcqnA and the previous month's close. The high/low range is based upon the closing average for each day during
BioPlusAcqnA Bionomics BancoBBVA the month.
AdaraAcqnA J.Jill
BioXcelTherap Ioneer RedwoodsAcqn CalitheraBiosci Bladex Close Avg
Jabil Year First Closing Closing Last Avg. Avg.
AltisourceAsset BitBrother IridiumComm RevolutionMed BancoMacro Month Closing High Low Mean Close Chg. % Chg. P/E Yield
CatalystBiosci JawsMustangA
AultDisruptive bleuacaciaA ItiquiraAcqnA RF Acqn A BanyanAcqnA 2022
CenturyTherap KensingtonCapAcqnV
CoreMoldingTech BogotaFinl IXAcqnA RhythmPharm Biohaven Dec 34395.01 34429.88 32757.54 33482.26 33147.25 –1442.52 –4.17 21.40 2.06
CerberusCyber KensingtonCapV A
HNR Acqn BowmanConsult JackCreekA RoivantSciences BlackMountainA Nov 32653.20 34589.77 32001.25 33417.96 34589.77 +1856.82 +5.67 21.40 2.02
Cerus LasVegasSands Oct 29490.89 32861.80 29202.88 30570.68 32732.95 +4007.44 +13.95 19.00 2.20
inTEST Broadwind JanuxTherap SageTherap BlackSpadeA
Citizens&Northern LearnCWInvtA Sept 31656.42 32381.34 28725.51 30649.56 28725.51 –2784.92 –8.84 18.14 2.21
RileyExpln ByteAcqnA Jiayin SchultzeSpecII A BlueRiverA Aug 32798.40 34152.01 31510.43 33009.56 31510.43 –1334.70 –4.06 19.72 2.01
ColonyBankcorp LifeTime
CascadiaAcqnA JupiterAcqn ScionTechII A Buckle July 31097.26 32845.13 30630.17 31535.32 32845.13 +2069.70 +6.73 18.43 2.09
NEW LOWS Cronos LiveOakCrestA June 32813.23 33248.28 29888.78 31446.71 30775.43 –2214.69 –6.71 18.03 2.10
CassInfoSys KademSustA SeaportCalibre CrowdStrike BuildAcqnA
AdaraAcqnA LiveOakMobilityA May 33061.50 34061.06 31253.13 32379.46 32990.12 +12.91 +0.04 18.56 2.01
CatalystPharma Kernel SeaportGlblAcqnII Cutera CCNeubergerIII A Apr 34818.27 35160.79 32977.21 34314.99 32977.21 –1701.14 –4.91 19.48 1.89
CamberEnergy LomaNegra Mar 33294.95 35294.19 32632.64 34029.74 34678.35 +785.75 +2.32 19.04 1.89
CatalystPtrsA KhoslaVentures SeniorConnectI A Dave C5AcqnA
NatlHealthcare MinisoGroup Feb 35405.24 35768.06 33131.76 34648.48 33892.60 –1239.26 –3.53 19.40 1.84
CECO Env KhoslaVenturesIII SierraWireless DLH Holdings CNH Indl Jan 36585.06 36799.65 34168.09 35456.15 35131.86 –1206.44 –3.32 21.27 1.79
SplashBeverage M3-Brigade II A
CelldexTherap KismetTwoA Silicom EditasMedicine CTS 2021
M3-BrigadeIII A
Nasdaq ChainBridgeIA KoruMedSys SilkRoadMed Embecta CarpenterTech Dec 34022.04 36488.63 34022.04 35641.33 36338.30 +1854.58 +5.38 22.13 1.78
MagnumOpusA
CidaraTherap LavaMedtech SilverSpikeII A Erasca CatchaInvtA Nov 35913.84 36432.22 34483.72 35848.57 34483.72 –1335.84 –3.73 22.26 1.73
NEW HIGHS ManchesterUnited Oct 34326.46 35819.56 34002.92 35055.52 35819.56 +1975.64 +5.84 23.10 1.75
CorazonV838 A LCattertonA SkywardSpecIns EveloBiosci Caterpillar
360DigiTech MarineProducts Sept 35312.53 35443.82 33843.92 34688.42 33843.92 –1516.81 –4.29 23.63 1.77
CounterPressA LegatoMergerII SlamA ExelaTech CentralPuerto Aug 34838.16 35625.40 34792.67 35243.97 35360.73 +425.26 +1.22 23.85 1.72
7AcqnA MasonIndlTechA
CoyaTherap LegendBiotech SocCapSuvrettaII FirstSavingsFin ChinaSoAirlines July 34633.53 35144.31 33962.04 34798.80 34935.47 +432.96 +1.25 27.09 1.73
7GC A MasTec June 34575.31 34756.39 33290.08 34289.91 34502.51 –26.94 –0.08 29.06 1.76
CresceraCapA LFCapAcqnIIA SocCapSuvrettaIV FirstSeacoastBncp ChurchillVII A
AchariVenturesI MettlerToledo May 34113.23 34777.76 33587.66 34270.31 34529.45 +654.60 +1.93 29.50 1.74
Crocs LibertyBraves A SpringValleyII A FloraGrowth Civeo Apr 33153.21 34200.67 33153.21 33803.29 33874.85 +893.30 +2.71 32.19 1.76
AehrTestSys MitsubishiUFJ
CSP LibertyBraves C SpringwaterSpec FocusUniversal Coca-Cola Femsa MizuhoFin
Mar 31535.51 33171.37 30924.14 32373.29 32981.55 +2049.18 +6.62 34.54 1.83
AetheriumAcqnA LibertyRscsA Starbucks Feb 30211.91 31961.86 30211.91 31283.91 30932.37 +949.75 +3.17 33.10 1.89
CullmanBancorp GeneticTechs ColombierAcqnA ModelN
AgileGrowthA Jan 30223.89 31188.38 29982.62 30821.35 29982.62 –623.86 –2.04 31.03 1.92
CVD Equipment LincolnElectric StrategicEd GlucoTrack Colonnade II A ModineMfg
Agilysys 2020
CymaBayTherap LionheartIII A SustDevtI A GreenwaveTech CommercialMetals MolsonCoorsA
AlbireoPharma Dec 29823.92 30606.48 29823.92 30148.58 30606.48 +967.84 +3.27 29.57 1.96
DadaNexus LIVCapAcqnII A SVF Invt HopeBancorp ComputeHlthA Moog A Nov 26925.05 30046.24 26925.05 29124.04 29638.64 +3137.04 +11.84 28.93 2.02
AlliedMotionTech DecarbPlusIV A LKQ SVF Invt 2 ConagraBrands Oct 27816.90 28837.52 26501.60 28005.11 26501.60 –1280.10 –4.61 26.63 2.11
Hydrofarm NaborsEnerA
AltEnergyA DecipheraPharm LSI Inds SwiftmergeAcqn ConcordAcqnIIA Sept 28645.66 29100.50 26763.13 27733.40 27781.70 –648.35 –2.28 26.00 2.11
JackCreekA NewJerseyRscs Aug 26664.40 28653.87 26664.40 27821.37 28430.05 +2001.73 +7.57 26.97 2.20
AMCIAcqnII DigitalTransA MalaccaStraits SyndaxPharm ConstellationI A
LogicMark NewOrientalEduc July 25734.97 27005.84 25706.09 26385.83 26428.32 +615.44 +2.38 22.84 2.34
AmicusTherap DPCapAcqnIA MarlinTechA Talon1AcqnA CorpAmAirports June 25475.02 27572.44 25015.55 26062.27 25812.88 +429.77 +1.69 21.69 2.47
mCloudTech NewparkResources
AmkorTech DragoneerGrwIII MatthewsIntl TargetGlbl I A CorsairPtrA May 23723.69 25548.27 23247.97 24271.02 25383.11 +1037.39 +4.26 20.22 2.73
MGO Global NineEnergy Apr 20943.51 24633.86 20943.51 23293.90 24345.72 +2428.56 +11.08 18.07 2.86
AmrytPharma DuetAcqnA MedicusSciA TargetHosp CrownPropA
MidatechPharma NorthernGenIII Mar 26703.32 27090.86 18591.93 22637.42 21917.16 –3492.20 –13.74 17.44 2.94
AnthemisDigA EastRscsAcqnA MelcoResorts TaylorDevices MountRainier DCP Midstream Feb 28399.81 29551.42 25409.36 28519.73 25409.36 –2846.67 –10.07 21.95 2.28
NovoNordisk
AppTech EnsignGroup MGO Global TBSA Acqn A MultiMetaVerse Darden Jan 28868.80 29348.10 28256.03 28879.99 28256.03 –282.41 –0.99 21.34 2.21
O-I Glass
Ardelyx EsgenAcqnA MSD Acqn A TenXKeaneAcqn NabrivaTherap DeckersOutdoor 2019
OceaneeringIntl
Arhaus EvergreenA MuscleMaker TexasRoadhouse NeuroSense Dick's Dec 27783.04 28645.26 27502.81 28167.01 28538.44 +487.03 +1.74 20.90 2.24
OilDriAmerica Nov 27347.36 28164.00 27347.36 27797.05 28051.41 +1005.18 +3.72 20.52 2.24
ArogoCapA EVO Payments Nathan's ThunderBridgeIV A Nkarta DirectSellingA Oracle Oct 26573.04 27186.69 26078.62 26736.80 27046.23 +129.40 +0.48 19.29 2.30
ArtesianRscs A ExcelFinAcqnA NatlBankshares TioTechA A NovoIntSci dMYTechVI A OsirisAcqn Sept 26118.02 27219.52 26118.02 26900.21 26916.83 +513.55 +1.95 19.32 2.28
AryaSciencesIV Aug 26583.42 26583.42 25479.42 26058.23 26403.28 –460.99 –1.72 18.78 2.30
FennecPharm NatlInstruments Tiptree OceanPal ESM Acqn A OverseasShip July 26717.43 27359.16 26717.43 27089.19 26864.27 +264.31 +0.99 18.77 2.19
AstraZeneca FeutuneLightA NatlResearch TitanMedical OramedPharm ElliottOppIIA PPL June 24819.78 26753.17 24819.78 26160.10 26599.96 +1784.92 +7.19 18.08 2.24
AsureSoftware FibroGen Neonode TPBAcqnIA P3HealthPartners EmpresaDisCom ProofAcqnIA May 26430.14 26504.95 24815.04 25744.79 24815.04 –1777.87 –6.69 17.71 2.26
AtlasAir Apr 26258.42 26656.39 26143.05 26401.58 26592.91 +664.23 +2.56 18.44 2.20
FifthWallIII A Neovasc TradeUPAcqn PaciraBioSci EnerSys PampaEnergia Mar 26026.32 26026.32 25450.24 25722.62 25928.68 +12.68 +0.05 17.87 2.25
AtlCoastal II A FinnovateAcqnA Neuronetics TreaceMed PaloAltoNtwks Eneti PeridotAcqnIIA Feb 25063.89 26091.95 25053.11 25605.53 25916.00 +916.33 +3.67 17.95 2.25
AtlCoastalA FirstReserveA NewcourtAcqnA Trip.com PLBY Group EVeMobilityA PontemA Jan 23346.24 25014.86 22686.22 24157.80 24999.67 +1672.21 +7.17 19.04 2.35
AtourLifestyle FirstSolar NewVistaAcqnA TwelveSeasII A PlutonianAcqn EverestConsolA PowerSchool 2018
AuroraAcqnA FiveBelow NLS Pharm TZP Strategies A PMV Pharm EverestRe PrestigeCnsHlth Dec 25826.43 25826.43 21792.20 23805.55 23327.46 –2211.00 –8.66 19.54 2.41
AuroraTechA Nov 25380.74 26191.22 24285.95 25258.68 25538.46 +422.70 +1.68 21.12 2.22
Flex NorthAtlAcqnA UltaBeauty Rivian FastAcqnII A PrimeImpactI A Oct 26651.21 26828.39 24442.92 25609.34 25115.76 –1342.55 –5.07 22.45 2.18
AuthenticEquityA FocusImpact NortheastCmBncp UniversePharm RockyMtnChoc Fabrinet Progressive Sept 25952.48 26743.50 25857.07 26232.67 26458.31 +493.49 +1.90 23.76 2.10
AveoPharma ForumMergerIV A NorthViewAcqn UTA Acqn A Sai.TechGlobal FarPeakAcqnA QuantumFin Aug 25333.82 26124.57 25162.41 25629.99 25964.82 +549.63 +2.16 23.16 2.13
July 24307.18 25527.07 24174.82 24978.23 25415.19 +1143.78 +4.71 23.61 2.17
AxcelisTechs FranklinWireless NubiaBrandA VectivBio SHF FederalSignal RCF Acqn A June 24635.21 25322.31 24117.59 24790.11 24271.41 –144.43 –0.59 24.26 2.18
B.RileyPrin250A FrontierAcqnA NVE VectorAcqnIIA SkywardSpecIns FederatedHermes RLI May 24099.05 25013.29 23924.98 24572.53 24415.84 +252.69 +1.05 24.25 2.18
62 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
O T H E R VO I C E S
China and India are now Russia’s largest crude-oil
customers. Maximizing the price at which oil is
sold to Asian markets is not a priority for Moscow.
R
erate cash flow rather than to provide key industry subsidies.
maximize profits. There is no political opposition, so
ussia was the world’s By Christopher Delivery infrastructure is Russia’s Russia’s oil producers are also no there is no criticism of government
largest oil exporter Weafer biggest challenge. It has already ac- longer concerned about their share actions and very little risk of any in-
through most of 2022. cepted that it needs to sell its oil at a price. International investors are ex- ternal instability. It means the gov-
Sanctions mean Rus- big discount, and buyers in Asian cluded from the Russian stock market, ernment is under no domestic pres-
sia is no longer No. 1. markets have shown they are eager to and all Russian oil companies have sure provided people have jobs, are
Still, it should com- take advantage of the cheap oil. In withdrawn from foreign stock mar- being paid, and basic social support
fortably remain in January 2022, Urals crude traded at a kets. All foreign oil majors have either continues to operate.
second place by virtue of the fact that mere $1 per barrel discount to Brent sold their positions in Russian part- A reported steep fall in export vol-
it is willing to sell at a big enough dis- crude. Today that discount has wid- nerships or are in the process of doing umes in December isn’t yet a problem,
count to buyers eager to gain eco- ened to $31 per barrel. so. Russian producers are left with as buyers stocked up ahead of the ban
nomic competitiveness. China and India are now Russia’s only two key objectives: to maintain as and price cap, and tanker operators
The global oil market has always largest crude-oil customers, buying an much oil production as possible and waited to see how the price cap would
operated under opaque conditions. It average of 1.9 million barrels and 1.3 to pay taxes. be enforced. The Kremlin’s assump-
is now entering a whole different ball million barrels a day, respectively, in For a sanctioned Russia, this is tion is that a 25% to 30% discount on
game as Moscow looks to maximize November. Maximizing the price at acceptable business and very good Urals crude will ensure that buyers
cash flow and Asian buyers deflect which oil is sold to Asian markets isn’t politics. To be sure, it is giving up a lot remain in China, India, Turkey, and
Western criticism to benefit from a priority for Moscow. The priority is of potential export earnings because of other Asian markets.
“bargain oil.” to keep production and export vol- the large price discount, but it is earn- Russia’s major problem is securing
Russia sold approximately 4.6 mil- umes as high as possible. Changes to ing enough tax revenue to fund the enough tankers and other export in-
lion barrels of crude oil and 2.8 mil- the oil-tax system are shifting the tax revised budget. The government’s frastructure to deliver European oil to
lion barrels of refined products every point from export duties to production former ambitions to improve infra- other markets. There are reports of a
day in 2022, marginally ahead of significant number of oil tankers al-
Saudi Arabia. A European Union ban ready having been bought by opaque
on seaborne imports went into effect Russian companies to carry crude to
on Dec. 5, along with a price cap im- Asian markets. By late December,
posed by the G-7. On Feb. 5, the EU there were reports of over one million
will ban imports of oil products. barrels of Urals crude in tankers ei-
The receipts from oil exports ther showing their destination as the
helped boost the value of the Russian Port of Suez, after which it will be
National Welfare Fund, also known as changed to an Asian port, or with no
the budget rainy-day fund, to just un- declared destination. Russian, Gulf,
der $200 billion at the end of Novem- and Asian operators learned the tricks
ber. That sum should easily cover of the trade during the Iraq oil em-
Russia’s expected $25 billion budget bargo and from Iran’s experience in
deficit this year. recent years.
But 2023 might not work out as Russia will see a big drop in oil-ex-
Moscow had planned. As a result of port receipts for several years at least,
the EU import ban, Russia is expected but that is acceptable to the Kremlin.
to lose between one million and 1.5 It will be able to earn enough money
million barrels a day of oil exports this to fund the military and a so-called
MAILBAG
Send letters to Mail@Barrons.com. To be considered for Numbers by Barron’s, which breaks down the markets,
publication, correspondence must bear the writer’s name, is available wherever you listen to podcasts.
address, and phone number. Letters are subject to editing.
Or Content
government shutdown in late sum- reserve is decidedly un-cartel-like. To the Editor:
mer. As we endeavor to extricate our- It is mere speculation. Among the winners at CES were the
selves from the sword of Damocles Bill Weidner Las Vegas hotel and casino companies
that is a recession, do we really need Kennebunkport, Maine (“EVs, Chips, and the Metaverse: What
Creators?
to sharpen this blade? We Learned at CES This Year,” Tech
Patty Duffy Trader, Jan. 6). Coming events expected
Grand Blanc, Mich. Unconvinced on ARK to further boost Las Vegas travel
include a Formula One race, the NCAA
To the Editor: To the Editor: tournament basketball, and the Super
To the Editor: In his article about the coming battle Regarding “ARK’s Cathie Wood Isn’t Bowl early in 2024. Occupancy and
Perhaps it’s best to stop referring to the so-called over the budget, Forsyth states that Backing Down. She Explains Exactly gaming revenue have been strong even
FANG stocks as tech companies, but rather as mere “failing to raise the debt ceiling is like Why” (Jan. 6), I have more conviction prior to these events. Caesars Enter-
content creators riding the rails that real tech has built refusing to pay credit-card bills after that a Cathie Wood genealogy test tainment is paying down debt and gen-
(“Tech’s Bill Comes Due,” Cover Story, Jan. 6). spending on stuff.” That isn’t the would reveal shared DNA with P.T. erating free cash flow, and has a strong
Real tech still needs people to keep building and main- case. Those credit-card bills could be Barnum than I have in realizing a presence on the Las Vegas Strip. On-
taining infrastructure for real goods and services, versus paid from savings or earnings as an profitable outcome with an ARK line sports wagering should add to the
advertising-driven entertainment that fewer people have alternative to raising the level of in- Innovation investment. bottom line, starting in 2023.
the time, inclination, or cash flow to consume. Real tech debtedness. Of course, in the case Brad Norton Joe Hamad
needs engineers, not imagineers, and the U.S. is produc- of the U.S. government, there are no Westlake, Ohio On Barrons.com
ing far fewer of them than is the case in Asia. savings, thanks to past overindul-
W.E. Buckout gences, so that alternative isn’t
On Barrons.com available.
But there are earnings (called
To the Editor: “taxes”) that can be both utilized and
“Among the winners at CES were
Illustration by Dev Valladares
Tech companies are ultimately responsible for their ac- increased to pay down indebtedness,
tions, but the federal government inflated the currency by
40%. That created a situation where there were too many
dollars chasing too few goods. It seems that tech compa-
and such indebtedness may be re-
duced and need not be enhanced
materially with increased spending
the Las Vegas hotel and casino
nies overhired in reaction to too much stimulus.
Thomas Shisler
in each budget.
It is symptomatic of the state companies.”
On Barrons.com of our collective mentality that Joe Hamad, on Barrons.com
M W L C 10 11 12 H G R P 4 8 3 F 2 D 6 7 9 0 A I
64 BARRON’S January 16, 2023
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