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63142
C O NT EN TS 04.24.23 VOL.CIII NO.17
P. 18 P. 14 P. 31
P. 21
Trader: Maybe the
Optimists Are Right
A Little Insurance Earnings suggest that the economy
Could Go a Long Way might be stronger than many think.
Auto makers are looking to parlay By JACOB SONENSHINE
driver data into a slice of the
lucrative car-insurance market. P. 38
By AL ROOT
International: India
P. 23 Is at a Crossroads
Investors need to balance the
Innovation Is Driving attractions of high growth with the
Detroit’s Comeback uncertainties of authoritarianism.
Here’s where modern technology By CRAIG MELLOW
meets manufacturing know-how.
By AL ROOT P. 39
P. 17
The Real Reason Rate
Hikes Are Disruptive
Bank of America’s $99 Other Voices: Markets don’t
Billion Bond Problem respond well to policy surprises.
BofA says it’s only a loss on paper. BIG MONEY POLL: BUY BONDS • PAGE 25
By J.W. MASON
By ANDREW BARY P. 7 P. 29
P. 25
Spring Break for Stocks to Dividend Income Barron’s Roundtable
Big Money Poll: The There are reasons to stay sidelined. The pros and cons of ETFs that on Fox Business
Bulls Are Cowed >
By BEN LEVISOHN use options to enhance income. Watch our weekly TV show
63142
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4 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
I N D EX
Our index lists significant companies mentioned in stories and columns, For Customer Service, call 1 (800) 544-0422, or go to
plus Research Reports, and Corrections & Amplifications. The references customercenter.barrons.com. For reprints of articles,
are to the first page of the item in which the company is mentioned. call 1 (800) 843-0008, or go to djreprints.com.
B Bank of America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Bed Bath & Beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 R Raytheon Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Berkshire Hathaway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,22 Ross Stores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Booking Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Rovio Entertainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Brookfield Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Rupert Murdoch Executive Chairman, News Corp
Brown & Brown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Robert Thomson CEO, News Corp Almar Latour CEO, Dow Jones
Burlington Stores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, BARRON’S GROUP Mae M. Cheng
S S&P Global . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER, BARRON’S GROUP Dan Shar Samsung Electronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,44
MANAGING EDITOR, BARRON’S GROUP Dave Pettit Sega Sammy Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
C Cadence Design Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 SL Green Realty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Caterpillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,36 Snap-On . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Charles Schwab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 EDITOR IN CHIEF David Cho SOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Chevron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 EXECUTIVE EDITOR Bob Rose SENIOR MANAGING EDITOR Lauren R. Rublin State Street . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Citigroup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Stellantis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Alex Eule, Ben Levisohn
DEPUTY EDITORS
EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, MAGAZINE Phil Roosevelt
D Danaher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 MANAGING EDITORS Kristen Bellstrom, Matt Bemer, Daren Fonda, Joe Woelfel
T Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing . . . . . . 44
Delta Air Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS Henry Cutter, Mel Gray, Anita Hamilton, Mary Romano, Tesla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,12,21,41
Dentsply Sirona . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Robert Sabat, Rupert Steiner (London bureau chief) 3M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Dow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 TJX Cos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
ASSOCIATE EDITORS Andrew Bary, Randall W. Forsyth, Jack Hough, Reshma Kapadia, Eric J. Savitz Triton International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
SENIOR WRITERS Bill Alpert, Megan Cassella, Lauren Foster, Nicholas Jasinski, Tae Kim, Joe Light,
E Eagle Bancorp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Elizabeth O’Brien, Al Root, Avi Salzman, Lawrence C. Strauss
Eaton Vance Tax-Mngd Global Div Eq In . . 29 REPORTERS Jacob Adelman, Janet H. Cho, Adam Clark, Emily Dattilo, Jack Denton, Catherine Dunn, U United Airlines Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,41
EQT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 UnitedHealth Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Carleton English, Sabrina Escobar, Callum Keown, Evie Liu, Shaina Mishkin, Josh Nathan-Kazis,
Estee Lauder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Expedia Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Angela Palumbo, Teresa Rivas, Connor Smith, Jacob Sonenshine, Brian Swint, Karishma Vanjani
STORY EDITORS Ed Lin, Erin McCarthy, Patrick O’Donnell, Stacy Ozol, Neal Templin, J.J. Thompson
V VEON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
COPY DESK Michael J. Burlingham, Richard Rescigno, Robert Teitelman Visa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,29
F First Republic Bank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 IDEAS EDITOR Matt Peterson Voya Global Equity Div & Prem Oppt’y . . . . 29
Ford Motor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,23
Fox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 DEPUTY DIGITAL MANAGING EDITOR Zoe Szathmary
SENIOR AUDIO MANAGER Mette Lützhøft DIGITAL PRODUCERS Robert Cushing, Nick Devor, Clare McKeen
W Western Alliance Bancorp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Chelsea Schiff
DESIGN DIRECTOR Whirlpool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
G General Motors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,21,23 ART DIRECTORS Lynne Carty, Nick Hallam, Sue Ng
Goldman Sachs Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY Sarina Finkelstein PHOTO EDITORS Alis Atwell, Halie Chavez, Nicole Silver
morganstanley.com/barrons-top-100
Source: Barron’s.com. Each award published in April 2023. Data compiled by Barron’s from Dec. 2021 to Dec. 2022. Opinions are Barron’s, who evaluated advisors on both quantitative
and qualitative factors including client retention, industry experience, review of compliance records, firm nominations, assets under management and revenue generated for their firms.
Rankings do not reflect any client experience. For more information, go to morganstanley.com/barrons-top-100.
© 2023 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC. CRC 5612301 04/23 CS 573976 04/23
6 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
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04-IB23-1615
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 7
W
this past week, its lowest reading time, are thinking longer than that.
hen you a choice between something good and since 2021. The low level of implied And that’s where this nothing market
come to a something bad, making it difficult to volatility suggests that investors don’t starts to get concerning.
fork in the play the outcomes with any nuance. see much need to buy protection The S&P 500 has fallen 1% over
road, take it, Perhaps that’s enough to make every- against a stock market decline, some- the past two years, a period that be-
Yogi Berra one sit on their hands until some of thing they could come to regret. gan around when inflation rose above
once the uncertainty is resolved. “Neither reading in themselves 3% for the first time since 2011, ob-
quipped. Of course, the market’s hesitation gives cause for alarm, but it is fair to serves Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid.
The stock market has other ideas. might just be an artifact of earnings say that recent market behavior sug- And the concern has to be that the
After rallying 7% to start the year, season. Not that the season has been gests that few market participants are index will continue to return noth-
the S&P 500 index can’t decide what BY BEN bad—it has actually been the best start well-positioned if another bout of vol- ing—or next to nothing—over the
to do. Instead, it fell a mere 0.1% this LEVISOHN to one since the first quarter of 2022, atility were to break upon us unex- next five, 10, or 15 years.
past week, a move small enough that according to Credit Suisse. Instead, pectedly,” writes Michael Shaoul, CEO It’s a “real doom-and-gloom sce-
you could have gone on vacation and stocks are responding almost entirely of Marketfield Asset Management. nario,” Reid writes.
returned a week later to find that not to company-specific news, causing That calm could end sooner, rather It’s one that has happened before,
much had changed, not really. some to jump, others to tumble, and than later. For one, the VVIX Index— beginning in the late 1960s when
But one week’s move doesn’t really for their moves to ultimately cancel out basically, the VIX of the VIX—has inflation, which had been thought to
do justice to how quiet April has one another. For every AT&T (ticker: stopped falling, even though the VIX be dead, proved to be very much
been. Three weeks into the month, T) or Tesla (TSLA), which tumbled itself is trading near its lowest level in alive. It was also devastating for in-
the S&P 500 has risen just 0.6%, vestors. During the second half of
which, if the trend holds, would be 1982, the S&P 500 was at roughly the
its smallest monthly change since same level in price terms as it was at
May 2022 and only the fourth time in the end of 1968, Reid writes, while
the past five years that the index investors would have lost 27% over
moved less than 1% in either direc- that stretch, including dividends and
tion in a month. adjusting for inflation.
What’s more, the Nasdaq 100 has “So we’ve had two years of the
had a range of just 2.9 percentage S&P 500 going nowhere but poor
points so far in April, which would real returns,” Reid writes. “Could the
be just the sixth time since 1986 that S&P 500 still be at around 4150 in
the index has been in a range of less 2035? It’s unlikely, but there’s a his-
than three percentage points. torical precedent from a period not
“We think it speaks to the uncer- too dissimilar to today.”
tainty across the market,” writes Miz- Stick a fork in it.
uho Securities’ Daniel O’Regan.
W
And there is a lot of uncertainty. hat happens when an
There’s uncertainty about when the unflappable stock mar-
Federal Reserve might stop raising ket meets an intractable
Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
ress is being made on the debt ceiling. more money to make ends meet. The
This past week, House Speaker Kevin money is still coming in, and if enough
© 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 4E5405
10 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
FEATURED SPEAKERS
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events.barrons.com/crypto-roundtable
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April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 11
ST R E E T W I S E
Don’t overlook the ability of a clever points pro-
gram to make even the most math-minded among
us feel like they’re getting a good deal.
T
within homes and boutique hotel flow was $2.8 billion. Post is bullish
here’s an Airbnb sunny places. They used phones. rooms. Some Vrbo bookings happen on Expedia and neutral-weighted on
competitor called Some of the phones had cords. instantly. Others give homeowners 24 the others, largely because of valua-
Vrbo. The fact that Anyhow, Expedia. Microsoft listed it hours to decide whether to accept tion. Expedia trades at six times this
you might not have in a 1999 stock offering. Barry Diller, applicants. year’s projected free cash flow, versus
heard of it gives you then a television tycoon aspiring to For me, no thanks. I don’t want to 20.5 times for Airbnb and 16.5 times
an idea of its stand- become an internet tycoon, scooped it risk something so valuable as a vaca- for Booking.
ing in the rent-a- up on behalf of what is today his tion on a single homeowner not being a If you apply Airbnb’s valuation to
stranger’s-house market. But it’s grow- spinoff hatchery, IAC (IAC). (See page weirdo. Give me something dependable Vrbo’s revenue and bookings, and
ing nicely, and it’s free—not the service, 14 for more on Diller.) It bundled the and incorporated with the company then lop off 33% for the handicap of its
but rather the whole business. That’s BY JACK business with Tripadvisor and other logo on the soap. But then, in my smaller scale, you get a value for Vrbo
according to one recent analysis of HOUGH travel pursuits and resold it to the pub- young 20s I happily slept in scores of of $16 billion, Post calculates. But Ex-
Vrbo parent Expedia Group, whose lic as Expedia in 2005. $4-a-night backpacker hotels in far- pedia, including Vrbo, recently traded
stock price has fallen by nearly half The company has done many deals away countries, the best of which came at a $14.4 billion value.
over the past year. since, including a 2015 purchase of with a mosquito net and a hard-boiled
I
The same analysis predicts more HomeAway and its VRBO.com unit, egg for breakfast. Tastes change. f we’re headed for a broad travel
than 50% upside for Expedia stock which stands for vacation rentals by Today’s typical bookers of vacation downturn, there isn’t much sign of
(ticker: EXPE) in the near term, of owner, or maybe it just used to stand homes and rooms are young and seek- it yet. United Airlines Holdings
which I’m 25% confident. Somewhat for that. Expedia now wants the for- ing good deals, or else unique or out- (UAL) recently gave an upbeat
less theoretically, it points out that the mer HomeAway and VRBO to be of-the-way stays. Hotels are still a view. Cruise lines are booking 14%
company is likely to generate enough called Vrbo, and if my knowledge of much larger business. Alternative above prepandemic levels, with better
free cash over the next seven or eight marketing and capitalization changes accommodations, as the industry calls pricing, according to Melius Research.
years to buy 90% of its shares out- serves, the rebranding qualifies as a Airbnb-type stuff, hold a market share Meanwhile, online travel bookers don’t
standing. post-acronym internet name altered percentage in the teens, and rising, hold as much power as they once did
Expedia didn’t invent online travel stylistically, or PAINAS. says BofA analyst Justin Post. now that big hotel chains have learned
booking. Credit goes to forgotten ven- Expedia makes three-quarters of its Expedia stock has stunk, falling how to handle online operations for
tures like TravelWeb.com in 1994 for money from lodging, which suffered a 49% over the past year, versus a 28% themselves, while using rewards to
hotels, and Internet Travel Network in deep Covid-19 downturn. Home rent- drop for Airbnb, and a 19% rise for lure direct bookers.
1995 for flights. Microsoft (MSFT) als bounced back quickly, as remote Booking Holdings (BKNG), which Expedia has consolidated its vari-
big-footed its way into the business in workers splurged on comfy surround- handles both hotel stays and alterna- ous travel platforms to reduce costs
1996 with what it had been calling Mi- and improve service, and it has plans
crosoft Travel, but the name Expedia, a to roll out a unified rewards service
mash-up of exploration and speed, across hotels and alternative accom-
seemed peppier. Plus, the internet do- BARRONS.COM/PODCASTS modations. Don’t overlook the ability
main name was available for $9.99. of a clever points program to make
Then the internet killed travel
agencies. There are technically still
travel advisers, but those are mostly
Barron’s Streetwise even the most math-minded among us
feel like they’re getting a good deal. I
scored a free Big Mac this past week
for rich people taking fancy trips. For In a weekly podcast by Barron’s, columnist Jack Hough looks on the McDonald’s app, and it was
younger readers, there used to be a at the companies, people, and trends you should be watching. almost as satisfying as a dividend.
vast ecosystem of flight and hotel This is Wall Street like you’ve never heard before. Subscribe Expedia is slated to report first-
bookers used by ordinary people tak- to Barron’s Streetwise on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, quarter financial results on May 4. B
ing routine trips. They had offices at or your favorite listening app.
malls, with brochures and posters of email: jack.hough@barrons.com
12 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
R E VIEW 33,808.96
Dow Industrials: - 77.51
495.27
Dow Global Index: - 1.42
3.57%
10-Year Treasury Note: + 0.05
Ban—Delayed $200 B
York Stock Exchange: push it out for a
year while freezing spending, clawing
back unspent Covid outlays and impos-
New manufacturing commit- ing new workfare rules. McCarthy
ments from August 2022 to claimed the White House was “stone-
It may be a while before gas stoves go the way of the coal March 2023 under Inflation walling him.” He then released a 320-
furnace. The Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit ruled Reduction Act subsidies. page plan of more GOP cuts, including
this past week that Berkeley, Calif.’s 2020 ordinance defunding the IRS and stripping out
banning natural-gas pipes in new buildings—the first of
its kind in the U.S.—violated federal energy regulations.
The suit was brought by a state restaurant association.
Natural-gas stoves have been tied to a higher risk of
75%
The increase in job postings
funds to fight climate change. It’s un-
clear how much GOP support there is
for the plan. flight blew up minutes after launch.
respiratory illnesses; one study linked them to 12.7% of that mention relocation bene- Appeal Rejected Fox Settles
U.S. childhood asthma cases. Earlier this year, a top prod- fits as of February, compared Lawyers for Wall Street Journal re- Fox settled the Delaware case brought
uct-safety official floated the idea of banning new gas to a year earlier. porter Evan Gershkovich appealed his against it by voting-machine company
stoves, but backtracked amid pressure from some mem- arrest in Russia for spying, which the Dominion, agreeing to pay $787.5 million
P R EV IEW Thursday The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Sign up for the Review &
its preliminary estimate of first-quarter gross-
domestic-product growth. The consensus call Preview daily newsletter at
is for GDP to have grown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8%, follow- Barrons.com/reviewpreview
ing a 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter, and 2.1% for all of 2022.
18
rate of 632,000 new single-family
homes sold, slightly fewer than in
February.
The BEA reports personal income
and outlays for March. Income is
forecast to increase 0.2% month over
This past week, China posted first-quarter gross-domestic- 16 The Conference Board releases month, while spending is seen declin-
product growth of 4.5%, up from the prior quarter’s 2.9%, its Consumer Confidence Index for ing 0.1%. This compares with gains
14
as retail sales surged at the fastest pace in two years and April. Consensus estimate is for of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in Feb-
home sales in major cities rose. Analysts expect the recov- 12
a 104.1 reading, roughly even with ruary. The core personal-consumption
ery to continue through the second quarter, supporting the March data. expenditures price index is expected
Chinese stocks. The iShares MSCI China exchange- 10 to increase 4.5% from a year earlier,
traded fund is up 5% year to date. S&P CoreLogic releases its Case- one-tenth of a percentage point less
But some doubt a longer-term consumer-fueled recov- 8 Shiller National Home Price Index for than previously.
ery. While the wealthy can spend on luxuries, most con- 2012 ’15 ’20 February. Expectations are for home
sumers aren’t buying big-ticket items like travel or cars, Source: Statista
prices to be flat year over year. Early
says Shehzad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book. 2012 was the last time the index didn’t Coming Earnings Consensus Estimate Year ago
Qazi says consumer spending has never sustainably driven show an annual increase.
growth in China, and it’s unlikely to this year. Weaker infla-
The Secret Sauce M
To sustain its traditional export-led GDP Ameriprise Financial (Q1) $7.15 $5.98
tion highlights companies’ lack of pricing power, and youth
Wednesday 4/26
Coca-Cola (Q1) 0.65 0.64
growth, China needs strong consumer
unemployment at 19.5% is near pandemic levels. TS Lom- Whirlpool (Q1) 2.10 5.31
spending.
bard’s chief China economist, Rory Green, notes workers’ T
3M (Q1) 1.59 2.65
real income grew just 3.8%, below GDP growth and half $7 trillion American Tower, Automatic Data Alphabet (Q1) 1.09 1.23
the prepandemic trend. Consumer confidence is below pre- Processing, Boeing, Boston Scien- Archer-Daniels-Midland (Q1) 1.78 1.90
Covid levels, he writes. While home sales are recovering, 6 tific, CME Group, eBay, Edwards Biogen (Q1) 3.36 3.62
Chipotle Mexican Grill (Q1) 8.92 5.70
sales in central China fell 8%, and 3% in western China. Lifesciences, General Dynamics,
More Earnings on Page 59.
Smaller cities make up the bulk of home sales, he says. Humana, Meta Platforms, Norfolk
Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says
5
Southern, Old Dominion Freight Consensus Estimate
Day Consensus Est Last Period
he’s worried about the health of Chinese consumers. 4 Line, Pioneer Natural Resources, T April Consumer Confidence 104.2 104.2
March New Home Sales 632,000 640,000
Households have been in deleveraging mode since 2017— ServiceNow, and Thermo Fisher
TH Q1 GDP 1.8% 2.6%
dramatically since 2022—with consumers saving more Scientific announce earnings. F March Personal Income 0.20% 0.30%
3
than borrowing, he says. Household debt is at 100% of April Michigan Sentiment 63.5 63.5
disposable income, up from 20% in 2009. China, he says, The Census Bureau releases the Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a-Advanced;
2 f-Final; p-Preliminary; r-Revised Source: FactSet
could be facing secular stagnation, much like the U.S. after durable goods report for March. For more information about coming economic reports
the financial crisis. And that doesn’t factor in rising geopo- 2012 ’15 ’20 New orders for manufactured dura- - and what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic
Calendar at www.barrons.com
litical tensions with the U.S. — Reshma Kapadia Source: World Bank ble goods are expected to increase
14 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
B
As George W. Bush famously
arry Diller has seen this gaffed, “Fool me once, shame on you.
movie before. Fool me—you can’t get fooled again.”
The billionaire chair- In fact, not getting fooled again is
man of digital media exactly what Diller and leaders of
conglomerate IAC (ticker: other media companies have in mind
IAC)—and Hollywood when it comes to AI absconding with
mogul in a former life—is their intellectual property. To that end,
railing to me about the threat posed Diller has been in touch with major
by generative artificial-intelligence, or publishers, including News Corp
AI, platforms like ChatGPT. His spe- (NWS), owner of Barron’s parent Dow
cific beef? That algorithms and bots Jones, and Germany-based Axel
are scraping, repurposing, and poten- Springer, to persuade them to band
tially monetizing content from pub- together to fight this perceived menace.
lishers including not only the likes (The publishers declined to comment.)
of People, Investopedia, and Better Diller also says that he and other
Homes & Gardens—all of which Diller media executives have been communi-
owns—but the industry writ large. cating with Microsoft (MSFT) and
To Diller, this smacks of what Alphabet (GOOGL). Microsoft has
happened 25 or so years ago, when a multibillion-dollar investment in
bros from Silicon Valley search OpenAI, owner of ChatGPT, and has
engines—not just Google, but also incorporated the ChatGPT large-
Excite, Yahoo!, Lycos, and AltaVista— language model, or LLM, in the latest
persuaded old-line newspaper and version of Bing, its heretofore also-ran them and the AI crowd—speaks to IAC Chairman Barry building’s exterior with an enigmatic
Diller, above, wants
magazine publishers to slap their con- search engine. Alphabet’s Google has Diller’s skill set. Navigating through to make sure media beauty.” Nearby is another Diller
tent on the web without charging for Bard, which is similar to ChatGPT that complexity could well require companies get paid creation, Little Island, a 2.4-acre arti-
for content used
it. The pitch was something along the and is based on a rival LLM. The goal iconoclastic thinking, another strong by ChatGPT and
ficial island in the Hudson cum pub-
lines of (to be read à la Jeff Bridges in of those discussions, says Diller, is to suit of Diller’s. other generative lic park funded largely by Diller and
The Big Lebowski): “Hey man, there’s come to an agreement about how con- Sitting down with Diller in IAC’s AI platforms. his wife, Diane von Furstenberg (to
this new thing called the internet, and tent can be licensed in this scary new offices this past week had me consid- the tune of about $300 million, he
everything on it’s free and you better AI world. (Last month, News Corp ering his iconoclasm. There’s the blue says), which opened two years ago.
TJX Is a Retail
Given that dividend growth for the
S&P 500 index is around 5%, the fact
that TJX’s hike was nearly triple that is
Stock Just
“a strong signal to the market that its
future business is likely to be strong,”
says Sarembock.
Indeed, closures of nonessential
These Times
to TJX. According to data from
Placer.ai, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls
both notched stronger traffic trends in
December and January when com-
pared with the prepandemic period
three years prior; additionally, both
The average shopper at TJX stores traffic and unique visits are up, show-
such as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls ing the off-price retailers’ appeal to a
tends to have a higher income than wider swath of shoppers.
A
customers at off-price rivals lthough retail sales slumped in
February and fell again in
March, the average shopper at
TJX’s stores tends to have a
BY TERESA RIVAS higher income than those at rivals
I
Ross Stores (ROST) and Burlington
n the 1980s, T.J. Maxx’s slogan Stores (BURL), somewhat insulating
urged savvy shoppers to get the company from the falloff in de-
“the max for the minimum,” Until recently, the stock had been A T.J. Maxx store in which owns the shares. He notes that mand for discretionary products
Brooklyn, N.Y.,
emphasizing its low prices on on a tear. Over the past year, TJX above. Parent TJX despite the issues last quarter, earn- among less wealthy Americans.
quality products. Investors to- shares jumped more than 20%, while Cos. is well posi- ings were still up 14% from the year- That decline could lead to further
tioned to buck a
day can get the best bang for the SPDR S&P Retail exchange- slowdown in con-
ago period, with stronger-than-ex- dislocation at other retailers, as they
their buck by buying shares of traded fund (XRT) tumbled nearly sumer spending. pected comparable sales. struggle to right-size inventory and
its parent company, TJX Cos. 20%. At a time when hundreds of The Street consensus still calls for adjust to bargain-hunting shoppers’
As the largest of the off-price retail- stores of all stripes are closing across both TJX’s top- and bottom-line growth preferences. It would be another op-
ers, TJX (ticker: TJX) has been gobbling the U.S., TJX management recently to keep climbing this fiscal year. Ana- portunity for TJX.
up market share and sidestepping said it still could open some 1,400 lysts project a 13% increase in adjusted “TJX is a clearing mechanism for
many of the problems that have new locations long term, a nearly 30% earnings per share, to $3.52, on a 6.4% the industry, so it’s incredibly flexible
plagued traditional retailers. The rotat- increase. rise in revenue, to $53.14 billion. in different environments in terms of
ing merchandise and emphasis on TJX shares are off about 2% this Even so, TJX stock changes hands inventory at their stores and catego-
value creates a treasure-hunt atmo- year, amid worries about consumer for less than 22 times forward earn- ries they lean into,” says Kanwal.
sphere at T.J. Maxx—along with its spending and the overall economy in ings. Over the past five years, its aver- Investors worried about a con-
other banners, like Marshalls, Home- the face of persistently high inflation. age multiple has been 22.7 times, and sumer-led downturn at the hands of
Goods, and Sierra Trading Post—that In its most recent quarter, TJX offered it has climbed as high as 47.5 times. high inflation can also take comfort in
keeps customers coming back to stores disappointing earnings guidance and The most recent earnings report also how TJX performed during the
without requiring the company to foot disclosed that its gross margins had came with a 13% dividend increase and 2008-09 financial crisis. Earnings per
the bill for pricey at-home delivery. deteriorated, hurt in part by shrinkage, a new $2 billion share-repurchase plan. share continued to grow year over
“TJX has one of the best models in an industry term that includes theft. year, climbing from 41 cents in fiscal
retail,” says Sarah Kanwal, director Still, complaints about shrinkage 2007 to 51 cents in fiscal 2009. Just
and equity analyst at Crestwood Advi- have been relatively widespread in TJX Cos. three years later, they had nearly dou-
sors, which owns TJX shares. “It works retail this past earnings season and (TJX / NYSE) bled, to 97 cents.
with thousands and thousands of ven- don’t point to TJX-specific problems. $90 Management has already said that
dors and is expert at sourcing inven- And TJX can survive, and even 2023 is off to a strong start, and there
tory advantageously and opportunisti- thrive, during rough patches that 80 is little reason to believe TJX can’t
cally, at a scale that no one else can.” hurt other areas of retail, given its continue its trend-bucking pattern.
The stock, at around $78, is trading reputation for brand names at budget 70
“TJX represents [a] long-term share
at a discount to its historical average, prices. That should resonate with taker [that’s] increasingly important
even as factors—from budget-con- shoppers still grappling with big not only to customers but also to
60
Stephanie Keith/Bloomberg
scious consumers to its own forecasts— jumps in the cost of everything from brands,” argues BMO Capital Markets
suggest it can continue to zig as much shelter to strawberries. analyst Simeon Siegel, who thinks the
50
of retail zags. Analysts think TJX “Consumers are becoming choice- shares should trade at $85 and that
shares can rise 12%, to more than $87, ful. They’re turning to lower-price the company’s guidance “will prove
40
while its annual free cash flow is ex- discretionary items, where TJX really conservative.”
pected to jump more than 18%, to $3.1 excels,” says Craig Sarembock, princi- 2021 ’22 ’23 If so, it wouldn’t be the first time
billion, this fiscal year. pal at Bartlett Wealth Management, Source: FactSet TJX made bargain hunters happy. B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 17
I
Price cuts on cars are hurting margins, rates are pressuring vehicle affordability. nvestors have been focused on large the value of the bank’s $1.9 billion of low-
Not everyone agrees, arguing that Ameri- paper losses on bank bond portfolios cost deposits. “One of the reasons that we
but long-term prospects are strong
cans aren’t ready to buy all the EVs that since the spectacular collapse of Sili- spend as much time laying out the deposit
Tesla and others are making. con Valley Bank in March. Some of franchise is because, in a rising-rate envi-
The numbers don’t support that argu- their concerns have been fixed on regional ronment, you’d expect obviously that bond
BY AL ROOT ment. U.S. sales of all-electric vehicles grew or midsize banks like SVB. markets are going to turn negative. And,
45%, year over year, in the first quarter. But unrealized bond losses have also at the same time, you and we have been
F
or a maker of nearly silent electric Sales of gasoline-powered cars were become an issue at one megabank: Bank expecting, as rates go up, that the NII [net-
vehicles, there’s an awful lot of roughly flat from the fourth to first quarter, of America (ticker: BAC). This past interest income] would rise, because the
noise around Tesla. From a volley while EV sales climbed roughly 15%. Noth- week, BofA sought to reassure investors deposits are so much more valuable
of EV price cuts, disappointing ing in data tracked by CoPilot, which helps about $99 billion of unrealized losses on a in that environment,” Borthwick said.
earnings, Wall Street downgrades, and consumers car-shop, indicates that Ameri- key portion of its bond portfolio, as its Schorr asked about the bank’s securi-
stock volatility, it’s enough to induce ver- cans interest in EVs has waned, says CEO chief financial officer said that the bank’s ties losses, saying, “At this point, given the
tigo. The numbers, however, suggest that Pat Ryan. Availability remains the biggest net-interest income would rise in a higher stability, your deposit base, loan growth,
Tesla stock is still worth owning. issue, he adds, with some consumers wait- interest-rate environment. capital growth, do you feel like you can
Not all the numbers are ideal. When ing for new models to arrive. The comments by CFO Alastair Borth- just kind of ride it out and grind it down?”
Barron’s wrote favorably about Tesla stock What should investors do with their wick came during Bank of America’s Borthwick responded: “Correct. Right
(ticker: TSLA) on Jan. 6, we noted that wait Tesla shares? At the moment, nothing. earnings conference call on Tuesday, now, that’s exactly what we’ve been doing.
times for new Teslas were down, invento- The stock is volatile. Tesla gives investors when the company reported its first- We’ve communicated that pretty clearly.”
ries were up, and the economy was slow- opportunities to buy when the shares get quarter results. Bank of America dis- In a recent CNBC interview, Berkshire
ing. And Tesla was about to cut U.S. prices too cheap, as Barron’s recommended closed that it had $99 billion of paper Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO Warren Buffett
necessary to qualify for tax credits and when the stock was near $100—it’s now losses in the bond portfolio, which is criticized banks for investing in mortgage
improve its electric vehicles’ affordability. just over $160—and to take profits when classified as held-to-maturity for ac- securities at historically low yields, calling
But Tesla remains the cost leader in a it rises, as we did in early February when counting purposes. The portfolio, with a them a “very dumb holding for banks.”
part of the car business that should conser- it approached $200. If Tesla gets back to cost basis of $624 billion, consists largely The problem for mortgage securities
vatively grow fourfold between now and $100, we’d buy more; at $150 or $160, of agency mortgage securities. holders is that effective maturities
decade’s end—and growth is what’s impor- we’d go to the beach. Investors consider- BofA has by far the largest paper losses lengthen when interest rates rise, the
tant. The company has roughly a fifth of the ing the stock might want to wait for a among U.S. banks on its bond portfolio. opposite of what the banks want. It leaves
global EV market. Competition is rising, better entry point. In the long term, Rival JPMorgan Chase (JPM) had $31 banks with relatively low yielding portfo-
but Tesla should maintain at least a 10% though, the economy will recover, EVs billion of losses on March 31. Banks don’t lios for potentially long periods.
share by 2030, which would mean selling will get better, and so will the charging have to reflect these unrealized losses in BofA’s bond holdings yield about 2.6%,
four to five million cars annually, producing infrastructure. their capital ratios. which could weigh on its returns, particu-
a yearly revenue growth rate of almost Tesla is still the EV future, and its stock The big bond losses have weighed on larly if it has to pay more for deposits. The
20%, on average, for almost eight years. is still one that we want to own, despite BofA’s stock. The bank, at about $30, is portfolio has an estimated average life of
That kind of growth can come at the the noise. B down nearly 10% this year, while shares eight years.
expense of profits. Tesla’s first-quarter of industry leader JPMorgan Chase are Unlike the banks, Berkshire chose to
automotive gross-profit margin, including Tesla up 4%, to $140. Bank of America stock was invest its cash of over $100 billion largely
leasing and excluding regulatory credits, (TSLA / Nasdaq) little changed in the wake of a generally in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. It ac-
was 19%, below estimates of 21%. That’s $500 favorable first-quarter profit report—earn- cepted rates near zero in 2020 and 2021
down by more than 10 percentage points, ings of 94 cents a share in the first quarter, but is now getting 5% on its holdings. If
year over year. 400 against a consensus estimate of 81 cents. Bank of America had taken more of a
In one sense, the price cuts worked— “This is a source of frustration and Berkshire-type approach, it now could
300
Tesla increased its U.S. share from 2022’s embarrassment for” BofA, says Evercore be earning twice the current rate.
fourth quarter to 2023’s first. But they raise 200 ISI analyst Glenn Schorr. “But there are Berkshire is Bank of America’s largest
questions about demand for Tesla cars and many good things about Bank of America. investor, with a roughly 13% stake—some
SUVs—and EVs generally. CEO Elon Musk 100 Everything can’t be perfect.” He cites a one billion shares.
doesn’t think Tesla has a demand problem. strong deposit franchise and one of the It’s notable that Buffett has decided
0
On Tesla’s earnings call, Musk blamed industry’s highest-quality loan portfolios. against putting new money into Bank of
falling margins and lower prices on the 2021 ’22 ’23 He has an Outperform rating and a $36 America this year even after the stock’s
economy, pointing out that higher interest Source: FactSet price target on BofA stock. weakness. B
18 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
Courtesy of Apple
BY ERIC J. SAVITZ
N
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 19
ence for years, and they need to mon- Schubert showed off a new prototype time, Dell Technologies, HP Inc., and
etize that. It’s almost a matter of sur- of CarPlay that expands the iPhone’s Lenovo—the once-dominant players
vival for them.” territorial reach beyond the center in PCs—became largely interchange-
Sure enough, after years of wel- console, giving Apple the entire able and commoditized. In their
coming Apple and Google into their instrument cluster, including the place, Microsoft gained dominance of
cockpits, car makers are now push- speedometer and tachometer and operating systems; Intel, Advanced
ing back. Last month, General in-cabin functions like climate con- Micro Devices, and Nvidia (NVDA)
Motors (GM) said that its future trol and navigation—all with new, made the most important chips; and
EVs, starting with the 2024 Chevy Apple-designed icons and dials. Google and others owned the web
Blazer EV, would no longer support Apple name-checked numerous browser and other key software.
Apple’s CarPlay or Google’s An- auto makers—Ford Motor (F), “The auto makers want to retain
droid-based phones. GM will instead Honda Motor (HMC), Mercedes- their brands,” says Danny Shapiro,
offer its own system based on an Benz, Volvo, and others, though not Nvidia’s vice president of automotive.
embedded design of Android Auto- GM—that it said were considering “They want to differentiate. And
motive, which will be preinstalled adoption of the expanded version of there will be a lot of revenue from
in the car, with custom versions of CarPlay. There has been little subse- transactions.”
Google Maps, Spotify, and other quent news, although Apple had said “When auto makers bring Google
applications. the first announcements of cars with or Apple functions into the car, they
Never mind ChatGPT. The next big “We will be moving beyond the new version of CarPlay would start to lose touch with the con-
computing platform has already phone-projection systems, namely come in late 2023. Apple could offer sumer,” notes Nakul Duggal, Qual-
arrived—and it’s sitting in your Apple CarPlay and Android Auto,” updates at this year’s WWDC, com- comm’s senior vice president for
driveway. GM said. ing up in early June. automotive. “Auto makers need to
The $4 trillion automotive indus- Mercedes, meanwhile, expects to Google is taking a multipronged understand what customers like or
try is going through three big trans- generate billions of dollars in revenue approach, offering both Android don’t like. If you lose that primary
formational changes at once. Two of by 2025 from MB.Connect, the Ger- Auto, which operates in a parallel interface, that’s a big challenge.”
those—the rise of electric vehicles man auto maker’s mapping, naviga- fashion to CarPlay, along with An- The good news for investors is
and the gradual emergence of autono- tion, and vehicle-monitoring plat- droid Automotive, its embedded soft- they don’t have to pick a side as Ap-
mous driving—have attracted most of form, and MB.Drive, the company’s ware that’s licensed directly to auto- ple and Alphabet battle the car mak-
the attention. But the third one could autonomous-driving platform. Other motive manufacturers. In some cases, ers for cockpit supremacy. Instead,
be more powerful still: Cars are be- auto makers are following a similar Google is licensing an embedded but they can look to the arms dealers, in
coming computers on wheels. path. connected version of its Google Maps particular the chip makers.
This isn’t to diminish the impor- The industry’s push comes as software to companies like Mercedes, Nvidia is providing high-powered
tance of EVs and self-driving cars. Apple steps up its own car game. which then offer additional traffic processors with artificial-intelligence
But progress there will be measured Last year, the company said CarPlay data and vehicle information. With capabilities in more new cars, along
in decades, while auto makers are was available on more than 90% of Android Automotive—which has with a related set of software tools;
pressing ahead on “software-defined new cars in the U.S. “It’s a must-have been adopted in some cars from Ford, autonomous driving is one of the
vehicles” today—allowing cars to be feature when shopping for a new Honda, Volkswagen, and others—the most powerful examples of AI.
upgraded and improved on the fly, vehicle,” said Emily Schubert, Ap- car companies have more control Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was a sur-
like a mobile phone. Large screens ple’s senior manager for car-experi- over the applications and presenta- prise guest at a recent Mercedes
in cars have subsumed all manner of ence engineering, at June’s Apple tion of apps inside the car than they event in Silicon Valley to unveil the
buttons, switches, and analog dials. Worldwide Developers Conference. do with the current version of Car- company’s push into software-
As with phones, the digital dis- She cited research that said that 79% Play and Android Auto, which take defined vehicles. Mercedes is using
plays unlock nearly unlimited options of U.S. buyers would consider only over cockpit screens entirely. Nvidia chips in Drive Pilot, the com-
and all-new business models, requir- CarPlay-capable vehicles. For car makers, the computer in- pany’s system for Level 3 autono-
ing microprocessors, diverse soft- During her WWDC remarks, dustry offers a cautionary tale. Over mous driving, allowing drivers to
ware tools, ubiquitous network con- take their hands off the wheel in
nectivity, and large, high-definition some situations.
displays. The Digital Arms Dealers Qualcomm (QCOM) is taking a
“There are now more lines of code As Apple and Alphabet battle auto makers for cockpit supremacy, investors don’t have to pick a side. similar approach with its vision of
in the average car than there are in These “arms dealers” should benefit no matter who wins the future of the car. becoming the provider of the “digital
a Boeing 747,” says Dipti Vachani, chassis,” taking control of automotive
senior vice president of automotive Company / Ticker Market Value Comment connectivity, battery functions, sen-
and Internet of Things for Arm Hold- Apple / AAPL $2.6 trillion CarPlay works in most cars, but some auto makers are pushing back. sors, cameras, and display screens, as
ings, the SoftBank Group–owned Alphabet / GOOGL 1.4 Two-pronged strategy, with phones and embedded systems.
well as Advanced Driver Assistance
chip-design house. Systems, or ADAS, the precursor to
Amazon.com / AMZN 1.1 Cloud unit AWS plays key role in cloud-based services in the car.
The progress comes not a moment fully autonomous vehicles.
too soon for car makers. They have Nvidia / NVDA $667.2 billion Big automotive push includes graphics processors in Mercedes, other cars. Memory-chip maker Micron
been losing ground in their own Qualcomm / QCOM 133.1 Its “digital chassis” powers batteries, assisted-driving services, and entertainment. Technology (MU) has said that the
cockpits, where Apple (ticker: Micron Technology / MU 68.4 Software-driven cars provide big opportunity for the company’s memory chips. automotive industry offers the
AAPL) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Ambarella / AMBA 2.7 The chip maker is focused on vision- and sensor-processing systems. company’s best long-term growth
Google increasingly control the enter- opportunity.
BlackBerry / BB 2.6 Its QNX unit plays key role in managing sensors, other services.
tainment and navigation experience. And soon, investors will have the
Arm Holdings N/A The soon-to-be-public SoftBank unit is a key technology provider for in-car processors.
“They aren’t just selling a car,” opportunity to buy shares of Arm
Vachani says of the auto makers. Harman International N/A The Samsung unit is expanding beyond stereos to in-cabin systems. Holdings, which is planning an initial
“They can own a customer experi- N/A=not applicable Source: Bloomberg public offering on the Nasdaq later
20 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
this year. Cars in the Fast Lane Harman offers a heads-up display
Arm’s Vachani notes that Arm- Auto revenue is forecast to more than double over the next two decades, but most of called Ready Vision that projects
based chips are already running 85% the growth is coming from new digitally enabled services. relevant driving data onto the wind-
of in-car entertainment systems. shield, so that it’s in the driver’s field
“Consumers want their cars to pro- Traditional auto revenue Digitally enabled revenue of vision. Ready Care is a suite of
vide the look and feel they experience safety services that tracks activity
on their mobile phone,” she says. $10.0 trillion inside the vehicle. Sobottka says the
“That’s an experience we under- system can keep tabs on the driver,
stand.” Arm’s designs power iPhone tracking life signs like heart rate,
7.5
chips, servers, and other computing respiration, and eye movements—
gear. nudging the seat, tightening seat
Smaller companies should benefit, 5.0 belts, or turning up the radio when
as well, from more niche applications it detects wandering attention from
that rely on specialized chips. the driver.
2.5
Ambarella (AMBA), which pro- Even BlackBerry (BB), once a
vides chips used in advanced driver- dominant player in mobile phones,
assistance systems and driver-moni- 0 has refocused on security and auto-
toring applications, is producing in- 2021 2025 2030 2040 motive software. The company’s IVY
car radar systems intended to alert Source: Accenture Research platform is targeted at managing the
drivers not to leave their children growing flow of sensor data in mod-
behind in the back seat. Ambarella ern cars. At the Consumer Technol-
also supplies chips used in Hyundai’s a window if someone inside the vehi- makers to offer unique experiences. ogy Association’s CES tech event in
Genesis GV60 to unlock the car with cle is smoking. Christian Sobottka, Harman’s presi- Las Vegas in January, BlackBerry
a facial scan. GAC Motor, a Chinese Samsung’s Harman International dent of automotive, says that electrifi- said that the Chinese auto maker
auto maker, is using Ambarella chips unit, a legacy provider of connected cation of the powertrain is “not that Dongfeng Motor would use IVY in
in a cabin-monitoring system that car experiences, believes that soft- differentiating,” putting pressure on a new model to manage batteries in
A fully digital wide-
reduces the radio volume when a ware, combined with high-powered the companies to find other ways to screen cockpit from an effort to reduce drivers’ EV “range
passenger is on the phone, or lowers chips, will offer new ways for auto stand out. Mercedes-Benz anxiety.”
Technology, of course, isn’t new to
cars. Auto makers have been using
chips and embedded software in cars
for several decades, for everything
from antilock brakes to electric door
locks. But those electronics have
largely been defined by a class of
chips called microcontrollers, and
their slightly more sophisticated
cousins, “electronic control units,”
or ECUs.
Microcontrollers are the slower,
more simple-minded versions of the
microprocessors that control phones,
PCs, and other electronics. They are
cheap and specialized, and rely on
older chip-making technology. Dur-
ing the recent chip shortage, tight
supply of key microcontrollers re-
duced the ability of auto makers to
meet demand for new cars—or to
repair old ones.
“Today, the average car has 30 to
50 ECUs, and higher-end cars have
upward of 100,” says Sam Abuels-
amid, an analyst with the research
firm Guidehouse Insights. “Each one
of them has a little [operating system]
that runs independently. You end up
with a system that is hard to update.”
Courtesy of Mercedes-Benz
The chips that control electric
seats don’t talk to the chips that con-
trol instrument displays or the sen-
sors that monitor tire pressure. Pro-
cessor companies such as Qualcomm
and Nvidia are rolling out chips that
handle many automotive functions
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 21
P
says that Amazon.com’s (AMZN) heated seats, but the company has ardon the poor auto maker Ford has returned 3.8%. Both stocks
cloud services will play an increas- backed off that plan and says it has for wanting to be something trade for less than eight times 12-
ingly important role in the in-car no plans to start charging a subscrip- more than just a manufac- month forward earnings, less than
experience, with an increased range tion fee for equipment already in- turer of cars—especially half the S&P 500’s 18.9.
of entertainment and information stalled in its cars. Auto makers rattle when new technology offers Tesla’s (TSLA) success has offered
options. “We see auto makers experi- off the potential for other services, the possibility of so much more. the blueprint for a brighter future, one
menting in many categories—in enter- such as enhanced mapping and Such as selling lucrative insurance that includes, for the first time in ages,
tainment, certainly, in safety and con- streaming music and video, but there policies directly to drivers. the possibility of growth. It will be
venience, even in productivity apps,” remains the real risk that consumers Once the pride of American manu- driven not just by the sale of new cars,
she says. “It comes down to what cus- stick with their iPhone and Android facturing, car makers such as Ford but also by the ability to harvest the
tomers are willing to pay for. And devices for those applications. Motor (ticker: F) and General Mo- vast amounts of data stored by the
when you get to Level 3 autonomy, it The good news for car makers is tors (GM) have had a rough go of it. vehicles and use it to generate new
frees up time in the car for productiv- that there’s enough money going These days, they are no-growth busi- revenue streams.
Illustration by Mike Ellis
ity and entertainment.” around to remake business models nesses, with sales and earnings As cars get smarter, auto makers
Turning the car into a platform for across the industry. Their challenge roughly where they were 10 years will have to battle for control of the
subscriptions provides a new oppor- will be figuring out what consumers ago—and with the stocks to prove it. data coming from new, connected
tunity for Zuora (ZUO), a software want, how much they’re willing to Over that period, shares of GM have vehicles. It just isn’t the battle you
company focused on subscription pay—and then collecting all of it, or returned just 4.1% annually, behind expect, fought by the players you
management. “Why not turn the car at least most of it, for themselves. B the S&P 500 index’s 12.4%, while think of, and the winners aren’t the
22 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
ones you’d guess. a term that encompasses telecommu- Geico’s ubiquitous gecko has been far may have an advantage over the leg-
“With Tesla trailblazing the soft- nications, vehicles, engineering, and less visible of late as the insurer acy insurers, at least when it comes
ware frontier, the Detroit stalwarts are computers—sourced from connected struggles to improve its underwrit- to the property side of electric vehi-
aggressively focused on the software cars. The data relay a lot of things, ing, while State Farm in February cles. EVs are still relatively new and
front and not ceding territory to Big including driving habits. Any edge in reported a record $13.2 billion under- don’t have a fully developed aftermar-
Tech,” says Wedbush analyst Dan predicting who will get in an acci- writing loss for 2022. ket supply chain, and Tesla knows
Ives. “[Car makers] want the data and dent, how severe it will be, and how Even Progressive, which was how to fix EVs and how much it will
the customer moat.” much it will cost to fix can help auto thought to have fewer issues, saw its cost better than anyone.
Unfortunately, auto makers have makers offer attractive rates to their stock fall almost 7% on April 13 after “We’re currently at a $300 million
already ceded some ground to tech drivers. the company revealed that its com- annual premium run rate as of the end
companies. While car makers have While the opportunity is big, mak- bined ratio—a measure of insurance of last year,” said Tesla Chief Financial
the lead in offering driver-assistance ing it a reality won’t be easy. State payouts relative to premiums—came Officer Zachary Kirkhorn on the com-
software that improves over time, Farm, Allstate (ALL), Progressive in at 99%, meaning that it had paid pany’s fourth-quarter earnings confer-
applications like maps, music, and (PGR), and Geico, which is owned by out nearly all of its premiums during ence call in January. “We’re growing
entertainment already run on Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hatha- the quarter. (Much of the miss was 20% a quarter, so it’s growing faster
iPhones, iPads, and other connected way (BRK.A), control roughly 50% of attributed to the insurer’s expansion than the growth in our vehicle busi-
devices. Car makers do control the the U.S. market and won’t cede share into new businesses, where its ana- ness.”
hardware, however, and others will without a fight. And the data coming lytics aren’t as developed.) Auto makers, though, don’t have
be forced to sell apps that work on from the cars may not be as valuable Together, they demonstrate just to go as far as underwriting their
that hardware—the car. “It’s very as the auto companies think. how difficult the business is, even for own insurance. For now GM is acting
important for us that we own the op- For the most part, auto insurance, companies that have been doing it for like a broker—connecting buyers
erating system within the vehicle,” which falls under the category of years. “What [start-ups] miss is they with insurance companies. GM’s
said Alan Wexler, GM’s senior vice property and casualty, or P&C, insur- come with this idea of auto insurance “OnStar does not write the business
president of strategy and innovation, ance, shouldn’t be all that compli- being a relatively simple product,” on its own paper and sells auto insur-
at a Barclays investment conference cated. Calculating the number of cars Tunis says. “Believe it or not, autos, of ance nationwide,” says Jukka Lip-
in December. that will get into an accident and what all the P&C lines…is the most chal- ponen, president of Independent In-
Anything that adds to revenue is it costs to fix them is relatively easy, lenging.” surance Analysts. “OnStar also sells
fair game. GM, for instance, believes though the casualty part, which in- homeowners insurance through part-
C
that its self-driving tech will underpin volves juries and laws in 50 different ar makers are taking a stab ners.”
businesses generating $80 billion in states, is more complicated, says Au- at it anyway. Tesla, for one, Going the brokering route would
annual sales by 2030. Ford’s commer- tonomous Research analyst Ryan Tu- underwrites its own insur- reduce GM’s addressable market by
cial business has about 125,000 fleet nis. What’s more, the data coming ance in 12 states and even roughly a factor of 10—to $30 billion
customers in the U.S., and every one from cars, while helpful, may not be has its own insurance subsidiaries, from $300 billion—but there is still
of them has needs that can be served all that necessary. among them Tesla General Insur- enough money to matter. GM has
by software that analyzes the data “Seventy percent to 80% of drivers ance, Tesla Insurance, and Tesla roughly 17% of the U.S. market for
coming off the trucks to help manage are what are called clean, meaning Property & Casualty. In its 2022 an- new cars. If it were to manage a data
fleets, predict maintenance, and opti- they just haven’t really had any acci- nual report, Tesla said that it uses sale or earn an insurance commission
mize driving behavior. dents in five years,” says Tunis. “You “real-time driving behavior in select on all of the cars it sells, it could
“It’s a customer that can’t have any don’t need user [data].” states, and offers rates that are often amount to $5 billion in annual, high-
downtime,” says Ford Executive Chair Yet getting it right has proved to be better than other alternatives and margin cash coming in the door. Even
William Clay Ford Jr. “With software remarkably difficult in recent years. promotes safer driving.” And Tesla a fraction of that would be meaningful
that’s being developed, we can also for a company that has generated
save them lots of money.” roughly $4 billion in free cash flow a
The auto makers’ biggest advan- Give Me a Lift year on average over the past five
tage, though, may be in an industry Selling insurance could help get shares of GM and Ford out of the doldrums. years.
that is as staid as it is—the $300 bil- “I prefer GM’s approach of just
Allstate Ford Motor General Motors Progressive S&P 500 Index
lion-a-year U.S. insurance business. selling the policies and taking a com-
It’s a tempting target. The average 500%
mission off the top without having to
driver pays about $1,700 a year, every commit a lot of capital into a highly
year. It’s the kind of recurring revenue regulated industry and taking under-
that the auto industry dreams of. 400 writing risk,” Lipponen says.
And they’re making those dreams a Either way, the allure of insurance
reality. Tesla began selling insurance 300 is easy to see. Progressive and All-
in California in 2019. General Motors state, combined, trade for 16 times
has big plans to offer insurance and their combined operating income of
200
believes that it can generate $6 billion almost $7 billion they have averaged
a year in insurance-related sales by over the past thee years. If GM and
the end of the decade. Ford is thought 100 Ford could generate even $1 billion in
to be developing its own insurance operating income from insurance, it
business, though it hasn’t announced 0 could add $15 billion—or 30%—to
any plans yet. their market values using the same
The advantage that Big Auto be- valuation.
-100
lieves it has over the traditional insur- Insurance may not be as sexy as
ers and both Big Tech and insurtech 2014 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 software and self driving, but for GM
start-ups is so-called telematic data— Source: FactSet and Ford, boring could be beautiful. B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 23
Detroit Has Big Ambitions. tion. During that span, a drive from
Ford Motor’s (F) headquarters in
Dearborn, Mich., to GM’s Renaissance
Chrysler, and parts suppliers to keep
existing facilities running while they
opened new ones. “We have one thing
D
ETROIT—This city’s seemed impossible just 10 years ago, ing to thrive as they pour billions of a new working environment. And
massive Beaux-Arts when Detroit was forced to file for dollars into the development of elec- that’s where William Clay Ford Jr.
train station southwest bankruptcy protection. tric and autonomous vehicles—and came in. “Bill found the train station,”
of downtown once ri- At the time, the city’s population millions into the city, as well. Duggan says.
valed New York’s Grand stood at roughly 700,000, down from Downtown has been revitalized, Since 1979, in one way or another,
Photograph by Brittany Greeson
Central Terminal in grandeur and its peak of more than 1.8 million in with Detroit’s four pro-sports Ford has been connected to the com-
vitality. But in 1988, Michigan Central the early 1950s, when American auto Joshua Sirefman, franchises—which are in rebuilding pany that his great-grandfather Henry
was shuttered—a symbol of the Motor makers ruled the world. Regional above, is CEO of modes of their own—clustered within founded. Today, he serves as executive
Michigan Central.
City’s decline and that of its Big Three unemployment rose from below 4% Detroit’s former
it. Their venues are surrounded by chairman. After stepping down as Ford
auto makers. Now, it’s a symbol of in 1999 to more than 16% during train station is now boutique hotels and restaurants that CEO, he formed venture capital com-
revitalization as the city looks to the 2008-09 financial crisis, when a hub of transporta- blend Midwest manners with an inter- pany Fontinalis Partners in 2009 to
tion innovation for
become the Austin of the Midwest. General Motors (ticker: GM) and auto makers Ford national flair. A combination of politi- invest in the future of mobility. He was
Such a recovery would have Chrysler sought bankruptcy protec- and GM and others. cal will and business acumen are struck by the firm’s focus on the West
24 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
F
Making a Comeback ord will use part of the space EVs a year by the end of this decade.
A healthy labor market and a lower cost of living position Detroit as an attractive for some of its engineering, Today’s cars already require a huge
city for business. marketing, information tech- amount of software, with computers
Unemployment rates Urban consumer price indexes*
nology, and strategy staff. The for cruise control, fuel economy, all-
facility should eventually be home to wheel drive, and, in EVs, the flow of
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia Detroit-Warren-Dearborn
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward
thousands. Google parent Alphabet power from the batteries to the motor.
U.S.
(GOOGL), a founding partner of the Car businesses are competing for soft-
30% 350
Michigan Central project, is investing ware engineers not only with Tesla,
in local computer-science training and but also Alphabet, Microsoft (MSFT),
25
300 curriculum. Newlab, a tech incubator Meta Platforms (META), and just
20 that brings together inventors, space, about every other tech organization.
equipment, and access to early-stage If Michigan Central succeeds at
15 250 investors, will operate two “studios” creating a hub of transportation and
at the book depository. One will be mobility innovation, it would be a boon
10
200
dedicated to street accessibility, that is, not only for the city, but also for GM
5 making streets more safe and efficient and Ford. For a decade, their stocks
for passenger vehicles, buses, trucks, have traded, on average, at about seven
0 150 and pedestrians, including the dis- times estimated next year’s earnings,
2013 ’15 ’17 ’19 ’21 ’23 2003 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 abled. The second will focus on EVs while the S&P 500 index has fetched
*Base years 1982-1984=100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and other clean-mobility technology. 18 times. The culprit: stagnant growth.
“Here, we can pull together the GM’s auto sales in 2023 are expected to
policy makers, the big companies, the hit $151 billion, nearly unchanged from
Coast, with a smattering of interest in ered in graffiti—some of which is start-ups, the researchers,” says Alisyn $152 billion in 2013, as the company
ventures back East and some overseas. being preserved as art. Ford realized Malek, managing director of Newlab has focused on profitability over vol-
“There was really nothing coming from that restoring the station could serve Detroit, who believes that the city is the ume. Ford is expected to have $154
Michigan,” recalls Ford. not only as a symbol of Detroit’s re- right place to build the future of trans- billion in sales this year, up from $139
Economic research has shown that birth, but also as a place that could portation. “One of [the reasons] has to billion in 2013, amounting to just 1%
building a cluster of regional exper- help the auto maker build its future. do with just the ability to build stuff,” annual growth over the past decade.
tise can help spark development. A He got Ford Motor to commit $1 bil- says Malek. “The future of mobility is Both companies see a lifeline in the
key benefit is a deepening labor mar- lion to develop the old train station still tied to physical objects.’’ electrification and automation of cars.
ket in a common industry, making it and adjacent book depository. The The physical objects, though, GM aims to generate $280 billion in
easy for people to move—seeding depository—which once housed De- Both Ford and GM are changing. The modern electric- sales by the end of the decade, includ-
see a lifeline in the
other organizations with their knowl- troit’s public-school records, books, electrification and vehicle industry started as a curiosity, ing $90 billion from EVs and $80 bil-
edge. Think banking and finance in and supplies—is slated to open in the automation of cars. and few in Detroit saw it as an existen- lion from new businesses, including
Below, a Ford F-150
New York, tech in Silicon Valley, or first half of 2023. The station will Lightning pickup
tial threat. Now, Tesla (TSLA) is the autonomous-driving services and fea-
biotech in Boston. open at the end of the year, with truck being built at world’s most valuable car company, tures. It controls Cruise, which oper-
It has also worked in Austin, ample office space and public spaces, the Ford Motor and GM and Ford and most other car ates a fleet of self-driving taxis in San
Rouge Electric Vehi-
which has become a hotbed of tech plus studios for design and prototyp- cle Center, or REVC, companies around the world are racing Francisco. GM is taking what it learns
investment 30 years after some ing of mobility-focused enterprises. in Dearborn, Mich. to catch up, aiming to sell millions of from Cruise and applying it to passen-
Apple (AAPL) operations arrived ger vehicles.
in the region, followed by other tech Ultra Cruise, GM’s most advanced
and telecom businesses. Venture driver-assistance system, with capabili-
capital investment followed, and has ties beyond the company’s current
grown at more than 40% annually, Super Cruise, is expected to debut in
on average, over the past five the 2024 Cadillac Celestiq, an ultra-
years. Businesses have been drawn luxury sedan with a likely base price of
by Texas’ lack of a state income tax, $300,000. Fully self-driving technol-
as well as by Austin’s cost of living, ogy could one day be a subscription-
which is below that of Boston, Chi- based service offered in all GM models.
cago, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. Detroit must attract skilled workers
Detroit’s living costs are also below as it aims to become the Midwest’s
those cities’, though Michigan does technology hub. It has a forward-
have an income tax. thinking mayor, and high-profile
“The best way to get creative and CEOs in GM’s Mary Barra and Ford’s
to have new ideas and to have collab- Jim Farley. Tech companies might also
oration take place is when you have find Detroit and its environs attractive,
an intersection of people who have given living costs and wages lower than
lots of different thoughts, different Silicon Valley’s.
ideas, different ideas, different back- Nothing is assured, but Downtown
Emily Elconin/Bloomberg
grounds,” Ford says. And that’s Detroit offers a tantalizing hint of a
where projects such as Michigan brighter future. The number of resi-
Central come in. dents in the 1.4-square-mile area from
No longer a train station, the I-75 to the Detroit River bottomed in
grand building had been abandoned. 1980 around 4,100. Today, about 6,200
It was burned out, flooded, and cov- people live there—a 51% increase. B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 25
BY NICHOLAS JASINSKI
P R O F E S S I O N A L I N V E S T O R S F AV O R B O N D S
36%
and investors lack conviction. Their consternation comes across clearly in
Barron’s latest Big Money poll, and was evident in conversations with 8%
many respondents. Only 36% of the professional investors we surveyed
in the past month describe themselves as bullish on the outlook for stocks Neutral Overvalued Fairly valued Undervalued
over the next 12 months. The same percentage say they are neutral, while
the remaining respondents, 28%, put themselves in the bearish camp.
“The remainder of the year is going to be a battle between earnings Are your clients
coming down [and] a moderating interest-rate picture as the Fed gets bullish, bearish, or neutral
closer to being done with rate hikes,” says Ted Bridges, CEO and chief about U.S. stocks?
36%
investment officer of Omaha, Neb.–based Bridges Trust, who stands with 6%
28%
the bulls. “That process could be marked by a lot of volatility, as inves- Bullish
tors get comfortable with where earnings are going to be and then decide Neutral
on the right valuation to apply to those earnings.” Bullish Bearish 31%
In the fall, toward the end of one of the worst years ever for U.S. Bearish
stocks, 40% of managers were bullish. But the pros are enjoying decent 63%
market gains this year, which might have tempered the Big Money re-
spondents’ optimism about the future. The S&P 500 index is up 8%, to
about 4130, led by growth stocks, while the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate
Bond Index has returned about 3%.
Bullish managers see the S&P 500 gaining 1% through the rest of this Where do you expect the What is the biggest risk stocks will face in the next six
year, and 8% through June 30, 2024, to reach 4450. The bears expect the following market measures to months?
index to fall 13% from its current level through year end, and to lose 8% trade as of Dec. 31, 2023, and
through the middle of next year, sinking to 3801. June 30, 2024, if you are... U.S. recession 24%
Rising interest rates/tightening
Bonds have more fans among the Big Money managers than they’ve had financial conditions 23%
in recent years, due to the juicy yields now on offer. Indeed, 52% of manag- Disappointing corporate earnings 20%
BULLISH 12/31/23 6/30/24
ers expect bonds to deliver a higher return than stocks in 2023. Other defen-
Slowing economy 9%
sive plays are also in vogue: The managers’ mean forecast calls for gold to hit DJIA 33,753 35,698
a record high within a year of $2,106 an ounce, up from $2,007 last week. Systemic financial problems 9%
S&P 500 4187 4447
Barron’s conducts the Big Money poll twice a year, in the spring and Higher inflation 8%
fall, with the help of Beta Research in Woodbury, N.Y. We survey institu- Nasdaq 12,353 13,435
Composite Other 7%
tional investors across the country about their views on the economy,
markets, and investing. Some 130 managers participated in the latest
BEARISH 12/31/23 6/30/24
poll, which closed in early April. Which asset class will 95%
T
DJIA 30,035 31,422
provide a higher return 48% 52%
he interest-rate outlook is the key variable for most investors S&P 500 3598 3786 in the next 12 months?
these days—namely, will the Fed keep raising rates to cool in- 5%
In the next five years?
flation, or pause, or pivot to lower rates as prices fall and the Nasdaq 10,371 10,998
Composite Stocks Bonds 12 Months Five Years
economy weakens? Two-thirds of poll respondents see the
federal-funds rate finishing the year at 4.5% to 5.25%, versus a current
target range of 4.75% to 5%. In other words, the central bank is almost
done hiking, but investors shouldn’t count on rate cuts this year.
“I don’t think anybody would disagree that the Fed was slow to react to
inflation going up,” says Josh Frazier, chief investment officer at Frazier
Financial Advisors, near Columbus, Ohio. “Now there is a fear—rightfully How concerned are you about the health of the... Do you approve of regulators’
placed—that they may be slow to react to inflation coming down.” response to recent bank troubles?
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not concerned
Most Big Money managers expect an inflation rate of 4% to 5% in 1%
66%
2023, as measured by the consumer price index, with inflation then fall-
ing to about 3% in 2024. Only 9% of respondents expect inflation to be at 20% 15%
21%
or below the Fed’s 2% target next year.
34%
About 24% of managers see U.S. real gross domestic product contract- ...largest ...regional
ing this year; 38% expect the economy to expand by about 1%, and 38% U.S. banks? U.S. banks?
expect growth of 2% or more. Casey Nelsen, principal at Alta Capital 78%
Management in Salt Lake City, sees a mild recession starting in late 2023
65%
or early 2024. “Consumer balance sheets look good for now, but they’re Yes No
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 27
B
Large-cap Mid-cap Small-cap ased on the Big Money managers’ mean forecasts, the S&P 500
stocks stocks stocks
could earn about $213 a share this year, which would be around
46% 54%
Which investment
approach will 1.4% below last year’s total. At this early date, the managers
perform best in the 53% 23% 24% expect 9% growth in profits in 2024, to $232.
Growth Value
next 12 months? investing investing A soft landing, in which the Fed tames inflation without pushing the
economy into a recession, seems unlikely to many pros. “That would be a
neat trick for the Fed to thread that needle,” Keeling says. “We’re rooting
Which fixed-income category do you currently favor most? Predict the level of S&P for it, but we’re not counting on it.”
500 earnings for... More likely is a higher-rates-for-longer backdrop, says Bob Morgen-
47% 17% 8% 7% 7% 5%
2023 thau, principal at Spears Abacus Advisors in New York. That would im-
ply inflation and interest rates both holding above the ultralow levels
U.S.
Treasuries
U.S.
investment-
grade
corporate
Municipal
bonds
TIPS
(Treasury-
inflation
protected
U.S.
high-yield
corporate
bonds
Convertible
bonds $212.98 seen in recent decades. “We’re transitioning to a new era and going from
a monetary cycle to an employment cycle,” Morgenthau says. “The dis-
connect between financial assets and the real economy that we’ve had
over the past 40 years, and especially since the global financial crisis, is
2024
bonds securities) reversing. The real economy will be stronger than the financial markets.”
vorite sector, compared with 21% who favor energy and 19% who prefer
healthcare. Keeling is among the healthcare bulls, and is a fan of pharma
and insurance shares. Healthcare stocks have declined this year, he
notes, making valuations more attractive, and he likes their defensive
attributes. People still must take their medications and receive medical Predict the growth rate of real U.S. GDP in What will the two-year Treasury note
care, whether the economy is in recession or not, he notes. 2023 and 2024. and 10-year Treasury note yield one year
Longer term, aging demographics in the developed world and improv- from now?
2023 2024
ing access to medical care in emerging markets will boost demand for Two-Year 10-Year
drugs and services. There is also plenty of technological innovation go- 40%
ing on, from new ways of delivering care remotely to advanced tech- 2.25% or less
3%
30% 1%
niques for developing treatments.
As for energy stocks, several poll respondents cited projected short- 20% 2.50%
3%
2%
falls in supplies of oil and natural gas during a protracted transition to
renewable energy in coming years. That should keep energy prices high 10%
6%
2.75% 6%
enough to support ample industry profits and strong shareholder re- 0%
turns, bulls predict. The Big Money managers see little change in oil’s 15%
3.00% 14%
price over the next year. Their mean 12-month forecast is $78.23 a barrel, 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
or less or more
about where oil trades today. 7%
3.25% 11%
Chung points to the continued strength of the U.S. job market—the un-
employment rate was at 3.5% in March—and sees the Chinese consumer Predict the year-over-year U.S. inflation rate 15%
3.50%
taking the baton should U.S. consumer spending slow. That dynamic was (CPI) at year-end 2023 and year-end 2024. 24%
clear in LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton’s (MC.France) results for 12%
2023 2024 3.75%
the latest quarter, when sales in China took off, while those in the U.S. 10%
were relatively flat. Ditto for Nike (NKE). That dynamic should keep con- 50% 18%
4.00%
sumer-discretionary revenue aloft, he says, while cost-cutting from many 17%
companies and easing supply-chain issues help with profit margins. 40%
4.25% 6%
“Consumer stocks might sound odd if you think we’re going into a 5%
30%
recession,” Chung says. “But the drivers [of earnings growth in the sec-
4.50% 6%
tor] don’t depend on growing revenues. Margins will improve with cost- 20% 2%
cutting, and the comparisons to last year are relatively easy.”
10% 4%
Chung is bullish on Amazon.com (AMZN), in particular, and con- 4.75%
2%
sumer-discretionary shares exposed to travel and experiences, including 0%
5%
Airbnb (ABNB) and Booking Holdings (BKNG). 5.00% or more
6%
Las Vegas Sands (LVS), bigger in Macau than in its namesake city, 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
or less or greater
and Formula One Group (FWONK) will benefit from a continued re-
bound in travel, Chung says. Formula One should also get a more lucra- Will the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
tive U.S. television-rights deal after its current contract expires in 2025, What will the federal-funds rate be at the strengthen, weaken, or stay the same in
due to the sport’s newfound popularity from the Netflix (NFLX) series end of 2023? the next 12 months?
Formula 1: Drive to Survive and more U.S. races.
3.5% or below 7% Strengthen
T
here is more enthusiasm for bonds among Big Money manag- 3.75% 4% Weaken
20%
23%
ers than there has been in years. Bridges is focused on the 4.00% 9% No Change
lower end of investment-grade credit and some high-yield is- 4.25% 9%
sues, where returns exceed those on Treasuries, and he has 4.50% 16%
been extending duration in recent months to lock in yields. “I know I can 4.75% 14%
run out and get more than 5% on a T-bill for six months,” Bridges says.
5.00% 22% 57%
“The 5% is fantastic, but the problem is the six-month part.”
5.25% 14%
Other managers similarly are cheering the yields on offer these days,
while taking a more conservative approach to the fixed-income portion 5.50% or above 5%
of their portfolios. “It’s fantastic that you can finally earn a rate of return
on fixed income,” says Morgenthau. “But I’m boring when it comes to
bonds: highest credit quality, stay short [duration.] You can’t get rich Are you beating the
buying bonds, so you better not get poor, either.” S&P 500 this year?
Nearly half of poll respondents called Treasuries as the most attractive Yes No Not Applicable
fixed-income category today, followed by U.S. investment-grade corporate
How would you grade the performance of the Federal
bonds. The managers generally remain short in duration, with a mean allo-
Reserve in achieving its dual mandate of maximum
cation of 61% to bonds with maturities under three years, and a weighting 53% 57% employment and price stability?
of only 8% to paper with maturities over 10 years. That’s a baby step toward
extending duration, compared with that evident in last fall’s Big Money poll. 33% 33%
While stocks have rebounded somewhat after a punishing 2022, and
37% 30% 19%
bonds once more offer ballast, 2023 has been a tough year for investment
12%
pros. Only 53% of Big Money managers say they are beating the S&P 500. 10% 13%
Blame it on the same conflicting signals that gave rise to the spring 3%
Professionally Personally
poll’s indecisive readings. Alas, with stocks still pricey and the Fed’s path
uncertain, there is no guarantee that clarity will prevail. B A B C D F
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 29
F UN DS
The funds are an alternative for investors who
want high current income and are willing to give
up varying amounts of upside on stocks.
These 6 Income
to write options that are 2% to 4% Income (DIVO).
above the S&P 500 level, leaving room There also is a large group of
for appreciation potential. closed-end funds pursuing the strat-
All these funds face a trade-off. The egy, including Eaton Vance Tax-
A
in most time periods,” he says. “In UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Visa
hot exchange-traded a manager of the JPMorgan Equity general, call writing limits upside par- (V), and Chevron (CVX).
fund from JPMorgan Premium Income ETF. The fund ticipation in market gains much more Amplify founder Christian Magoon
Chase has reinvigo- should do well in “range-bound mar- than it protects against market down- says the fund, with a five-star rating
rated the formerly kets” because of ample options income. side pain.” from Morningstar, differs from some
sleepy category of That income also should offer some The success of the JPMorgan Equity peers because it writes options against
options-writing eq- protection in down markets. “It won’t Premium Income ETF has spawned only a portion of its portfolio.
uity funds. outperform but will get a good chunk the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Pre- That results in a lower yield of about
The JPMorgan Equity Premium of the gains in an up market,” he says. mium ETF (JEPQ), which has grown 5%, but it helps generate strong perfor-
Income ETF (ticker: JEPI) has mush- The ETF aims to generate 75% of a to $2.1 billion in less than a year. It has mance in rising markets—such as in
roomed to $24 billion since its incep- BY ANDREW rising market’s total return with a beta, a higher yield of about 12%, reflecting 2021, when it returned 22.9%. It also
tion nearly three years ago. It’s now BARY or expected volatility relative to the greater volatility of leading Nasdaq held up well last year, returning nega-
the largest actively managed equity market, of 65%. It has nearly matched stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Apple tive 1.5%. It’s up about 2% this year,
ETF, after attracting $6.6 billion of the S&P 500’s total return since its (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL). appreciably behind the market.
inflows this year and almost $13 bil- inception in May 2020. During 2021, it When market volatility is high, options The Global X ETF has an income
lion in 2022. The fund owns a group returned 21%, about 75% of the S&P prices are higher, and that results in focus because it writes at-the-money
of about 100 blue-chip stocks, led by 500’s total return, and it protected more income for the funds. Overall options on the index. That can generate
AbbVie (ABBV), Progressive (PGR), investors last year, losing just 3%, volatility as measured by the Cboe Vol- nice income but at the expense of ap-
Mastercard (MA), and Hershey against an 18% loss in the S&P 500, atility Index, or VIX, is now about 17, preciation potential. The ETF badly
(HSY), and sells, or writes, call op- helped by options income and a portfo- lower than the average of recent years. trailed the Nasdaq 100 in 2021, return-
tions against the S&P 500. lio that bested the index. Other sizable ETFs in the category ing 10%, against 27% for the index.
The big lure of the ETF and similar This year hasn’t been as good. The include the $7 billion Global X Nas- This year, it’s up about 12% against a
funds is, unsurprisingly, income. The fund is up 3%, way behind the S&P daq 100 Covered Call (QYLD) and 20% gain in the index.
ETF has a trailing 12-month yield of 500’s 8% total return. The ETF tends Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Boughton says investors could con-
11%, way above traditional dividend- sider closed-end funds with interna-
oriented funds and ETFs, which yield tional stock exposure, since they trade
in the 3% range. Supercharged Income Funds at some of the deepest discounts in the
The difference is the income pro- These six funds use options to increase their yields. category.
duced by the sale of call options. The The Eaton Vance fund holds a port-
Recent Return Recent Expense
funds give up appreciation potential in ETF / Ticker Price YTD 2022 2021 Yield Assets (bil) Ratio folio of high-quality global stocks led
return for options income. They are by Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple,
JPMorgan Equity Premium Income / JEPI $54.95 3.3% -3.5% 21.5% 9.7% $24.2 0.35%
best suited to retirement accounts be- and writes options against a portion of
JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium / JEPQ 45.07 13.9 N/A N/A 12.1 2.2 0.35
cause the options income tends to be the portfolio—roughly 50% at year
treated as a short-term gain and thus Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call / QYLD 17.30 12.1 -19.1 10.4 11.7 7.2 0.60 end. The fund, at around $8, has a
taxed as ordinary income, according to Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend 36.23 2.3 -1.5 22.9 4.6 2.9 0.55 yield of 8.5% and trades for a 9% dis-
New York tax expert Robert Willens. Income / DIVO count to its net asset value.
Call options allow the holder to buy The Voya Global Equity fund, at
Closed-End Fund / Ticker
a stock or index at a fixed price during about $5 a share, yields 9% and trades
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global $7.80 5.6% -22.2% 31.5% 8.5% $2.6 1.07%
a set period. Call-option sellers pocket at a 13% discount to NAV. It writes op-
Diversified Equity Income / EXG
premium income but relinquish the tions against about half of its portfolio.
Voya Global Equity Dividend and 5.17 -3.0 -5.0 29.1 9.3 0.5 0.99
ability to benefit from gains above the While global is in its name, over 60%
Premium Opportunity / IGD
strike price of the options. of its stockholdings are in the U.S., led
S&P 500 8.7% -18.1% 28.7%
“The strategy works in many market by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AbbVie,
environments,” says Hamilton Reiner, Note: Data through April 19; N/A=not applicable Sources: Morningstar; Bloomberg and Merck (MRK). B
30 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
T E C H T R ADER I N C O M E I N V E ST I N G
Worth Watching: Netflix Muni Bonds Are Inching
Starts a New Chapter Back. How to Capture 5%.
BY ERIC J. SAVITZ subscriber than the standard subscrip- BY LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS decline in 2022. Much of the selling pres-
tion plan. (That standard plan is $15.49 a sure in munis may have washed out,
N M
etflix kicked off tech earnings month, and the ad-supported plan is unicipal bonds, along with based on mutual fund flow data that
season with a puzzle box of a $6.99 a month. The math suggests the the entire fixed-income showed net gains for funds through mid-
quarter. It took some searching, company is generating more than $8.50 a world, faltered last year as February.
but there were important data month in ad revenue per subscriber.) the Federal Reserve raised Like the rest of the bond market, mu-
points inside. Netflix noted that its ad-supported tier interest rates aggressively to fight infla- nis could get a lift as the Fed winds down
On the surface, things didn’t look so has about 95% of the same content as its tion. But munis, up around 2% on aver- rate hikes; while one more is expected in
good. Both first-quarter results and sec- ad-free plans. This month it will boost age this year, are recovering. Some ana- May, and possibly another in June, the
ond-quarter guidance were a little disap- video quality on the ad-backed service lysts think there’s still value in the space, Fed is widely expected to pause after that
pointing. For the first quarter, revenue while adding the ability in some markets especially in longer-dated bonds. or even cut a little toward year end. In
was in line with estimates, but up just to watch two concurrent streams. Citi- “The real opportunity is beyond 10 theory, longer-term munis should be big-
4%, while net new subscriber growth was group analyst Jason Bazinet estimates the years,” says Duane McAllister, co-head of ger winners as rates stabilize or fall.
1.75 million, about 500,000 below analyst ad-supported tier could boost Netflix’s the muni team at Baird Advisors, refer- There is still risk in long-term debt,
forecasts. As for the current quarter, the subscription base by 65 million. ring to bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years. which is the most sensitive to rates. If
outlook fell shy of the Street consensus on There were other positives coming out Munis hold appeal for investors in rates climb across the bond world, owing
revenue, profit, and subscriber growth. of the earnings report. Netflix lifted its high tax brackets, since their interest is to higher fears of inflation, munis won’t
Even still, the Netflix (ticker: NFLX) forecast for 2023 free cash flow to $3.5 exempt from federal taxation and may be be spared. The potential for a harder eco-
story is in transition and should reward billion from $3 billion, and said it would exempt from state or local taxes, if you nomic landing is increasing, says Ham-
patient investors. keep its 2024 content budget flat with this live in a state that issues the bonds. For mer, which could pressure tax revenue
The company has launched two initia- year, at $17 billion. Additionally, it expects example, a AAA-rated muni yielding and hurt muni prices. Still, state and local
tives intended to boost growth—an adver- revenue growth to accelerate in the sec- 3.5% would have a tax-equivalent yield of taxes have performed better than ex-
tising-supported subscription tier and a ond half as paid sharing and advertising 5.22% at a 33% federal rate for a head-of- pected, he adds, and are up substantially
crackdown on password sharing. The gain traction. household filer, according to Bankrate. At overall from pre-Covid levels.
early signs are promising, but it might Meanwhile, Netflix repurchased $400 a 28% tax rate, the yield falls to 4.86%. Compared with Treasuries, long-term
take a few quarters for the impact of the million of stock in the quarter and plans Unlike the Treasury market, long-term munis may offer more value. A 30-year
programs to show up in financial results, to get more aggressive on buybacks. munis yield more than ones at the short AAA muni yields around 85% of a com-
leading to some uncomfortable year-over- As Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheri- end, thanks to a relatively steep yield parable Treasury, compared with 55% for
year comparisons in the short term. dan notes in his first-quarter review, the curve. Munis ranked AAA yield around two-year bonds. That makes the long-term
Netflix has already launched the pass- new challenge for Netflix investors is 3.5% for bonds maturing in 25 to 30 muni a better after-tax deal, says Lyle Fit-
word crackdown—it calls the program evaluating the positive effects of the sub- years, according to Tradeweb. That com- terer, co-head of munis at Baird.
“paid sharing”—in four markets: Canada, scriber crackdown and ad rollout inside a pares to 2.8% for a one-year muni and Funds tend to be categorized as na-
New Zealand, Spain, and Portugal. The climate that’s getting tougher, from both 2.3% for a 10-year bond. tional or single-state; if you’re in a rela-
company said the pattern in these mar- an economic and competitive standpoint. David Hammer, head of muni portfo- tively high-tax state like California, New
kets is for some subscriber losses up Sheridan kept a Sell rating on the lios at Pimco, sees value in high-quality York, or New Jersey, you can save a bit on
front, with a rebound soon after, as Net- stock, but notes that passwords and ads bonds maturing in 15 years or longer. taxes with those state funds.
flix-less freeloaders pay up for their own “have the potential to open up avenues of Those bonds, along with lower-rated Among actively managed national
accounts. Netflix said that in Canada it new subscriber growth” over the long munis, still haven’t recovered fully from mutual funds, one standout is Vanguard
now has more subscribers and faster rev- term. Still, he said most of that is re- last year’s selloff, he says. Daniel Close, Long-Term Tax-Exempt (VWLUX). Up
enue growth than before it began paid flected in the 39% rally for Netflix shares head of munis at Nuveen, also likes the 2.9% this year, the fund yields 3.5% and
sharing. It says there are 100 million over the past six months. long end of the curve, noting that it “was has an expense ratio of 0.09%. It beat
households watching the service without Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese took a hit the hardest in 2022, leaving it with 88% of its rivals in the past 15 years, ac-
paying anything, which is a ripe opportu- more upbeat view. She has an Outper- attractive value as the Fed approaches a cording to Morningstar.
nity for growth beyond its current sub- form rating on Netflix and just added the pause in rate hikes.” Another strong performer is the
scriber base of 233 million. stock to her firm’s “Best Ideas” list. Investors are starting to claw back American Funds Tax-Exempt Bond
Meanwhile, the company is making Now 25 years into its existence, Netflix some of last year’s losses. The $32 billion Fund of America (AFTEX). The fund
solid progress on its advertising strategy. is finding new ways to get more efficient. iShares National Muni Bond exchange- yields 3.1% and has an expense ratio of
Netflix said that in the U.S. its ad-based And, unlike many of its Big Tech cousins, trded fund (ticker: MUB) is up 2% this 0.50%. It’s up 2.4% this year, with 15-
plans are generating more revenue per it has yet to undertake mass layoffs. B year, including interest, following a 7.4% year returns beating 90% of rivals. B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 31
THE EC ONOMY
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research,
observes that the Fed historically hasn’t lowered
rates when the VIX has been as low as it is now.
Is an Iceberg Ahead?
cording to the CME FedWatch site. market over the past three years,
As of early Friday, the fed-funds fu- along with the end of the Fed’s bond
tures market saw an 87% probability purchases, aka quantitative easing,
of such a move, and the Fed’s policy- he writes in an email.
setting panel has been prone to meet- The low VIX in part reflects the
ing market expectations. market’s expectation that Jerome
L
Such an increase would put the Powell & Co. will cut rates later this
ong ago, Hank Wil- markets spiked sharply in March central bank’s key policy rate in line year, Colas also observes. But in or-
liams sang, “We live with the failures of Silicon Valley with its most recent year-end projec- der for that to happen, he maintains,
in two different Bank and Signature Bank and atten- tion of 5.1%, set at the March 22 there would almost certainly need to
worlds, dear,” and dant fears of a spreading bank crisis. FOMC meeting. And, as Bassman be a spike in volatility from a shock,
so it seems with the With the rapid actions by regulators points out, the futures market is pric- such as a geopolitical event or the
stock and bond mar- that appear to have contained the ing in cuts after that, sometime later onset of recession. Such was the case
kets. Like the old runs—for now, at least—the stock this year, albeit significantly smaller after the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Ku-
country tune, the two inhabit dis- and bond measures have come off ones than it envisaged last month in wait; during the Long-Term Capital
tinctly disparate economic environ- their peaks. The VIX had receded the wake of the SVB failure. Management crisis in 1998; going
ments, which might be hard to recon- BY RANDALL to about 17 by late last week, close to But the Fed historically hasn’t into the 2001 and the 2008-09 reces-
cile. On the equity side, everything W. FORSYTH a 52-week low, and a level associated lowered rates when the VIX has been sions; and the 2020 pandemic start.
seems copacetic, as implied by the with investor equanimity, if not this low, writes Nicholas Colas, co- Something like that would trigger
subdued reading in the VIX, the so- complacency. But the MOVE has founder of DataTrek Research, in a the “Fed put,” according to Colas.
called fear gauge, which measures remained elevated. report. Given that the VIX apparently Absent such an event, the market is
the expected volatility of S&P 500 Over time, all financial assets tend has been distorted to the downside far from telling the monetary author-
options over the next 30 days. But to trade in tandem, so the split be- by the proliferation of zero-day-to- ities that there is a need to act, he
the MOVE, the analog for the Trea- tween rates and risk markets raises expiration options, he cites tighter adds.
sury market, is showing the opposite. questions. “The rates market has bet corporate credit as corroboration of Bassman also doubts that inflation
“The MOVE index is quite high the ranch that inflation will soon col- the equity market’s relaxed mood, will break, as implied by the market’s
(recession territory) and is consistent lapse and the Fed will jump one more implied by the fear gauge’s reading. expectation of rate cuts, given a con-
with a volatile economic climate and time to 5.0%, and then cut twice by Corporate debt spreads have been tinued tight job markets because of
financial shocks whipsawing Trea- baby-boomer retirements and cur-
sury yields,” writes Stan Shipley, an tailed immigration. Deutsche Bank
economist/strategist at Evercore ISI, Nothing to Fear? economists write that core services
in a client note. “The macro outlook The VIX, aka the fear gauge for stocks, indicates extreme calm—or complacency— inflation remains high, even with
for equity volatility is closer to a ‘soft’ while its bond counterpart, the MOVE, shows continued worry about the economy. housing costs starting to cool.
landing where yields don’t move sig- Healthcare costs will probably boost
MOVE Index VIX Index
nificantly, nor is there an onslaught the personal consumption deflator,
of financial shocks whipsawing the Fed’s favored inflation measure,
200%
equity prices and credit spreads,” which could then feed into labor
the last referring to the extra yield costs, they add.
on riskier corporate-debt securities 150 Minutes of the March Federal
over Treasuries. Open Market Committee meeting
“The MOVE, as a measure of rate 100 show that the central bank’s staff
volatility, is screaming cognitive dis- anticipates a mild recession, starting
sonance,” writes Harley Bassman, 50 later this year. Yet the FOMC’s pro-
the inventor of the Treasury market jection is for no rate cuts by year end
gauge. “Stocks and credit are smok- 0 after May’s probable hike. The two
ing cigars on the top deck while the different worlds of bond and stock
rates market is running for the life- -50 investors may collide in the months
boats,” as he put it pithily in an ahead. B
2022 ’23
email.
Volatility gauges in all of the Source: Bloomberg email: randall.forsyth@barrons.com
32 BARRON’S April 24
F
a downturn seems likely this year,
or much of 2022, economists why the Fed should pause its mone-
chided the Federal Reserve tary-policy tightening, and whether
for waiting too long to generous fiscal-stimulus policies are
tighten monetary policy to to blame for high inflation. An edited
tame inflation. Nine interest- version of these conversations follows.
rate hikes later, a growing
chorus of economists, Clau- Barron’s: Where is the U.S. econ-
dia Sahm among them, is warning the omy heading?
central bank that it’s now time to stop Claudia Sahm: Recessions don’t tend
tightening—and that the consequences to have a Wile E. Coyote moment
of not doing so could be severe. where the bottom falls out of nowhere.
Sahm, an independent macroeco- They tend to have something that
nomic consultant, spent a dozen years pushes us over the cliff. Whether it’s
at the Fed before becoming a leading the dot-com bubble bursting, mort-
adviser to lawmakers as they crafted gages melting down, the pandemic
an economic policy response to the showing up—something happens.
Covid-19 pandemic. She is perhaps That was the big concern with Silicon
best known as the eponymous codifier Valley Bank’s collapse—that’s exactly
of the “Sahm rule,” which she created the kind of thing that, if it snowballs,
while at the Fed. It says that when the can bring it all down, because the
three-month average in the unemploy- economy was already slowing.
ment rate rises half a percentage point If we don’t have something that
or more above its low in the prior 12 comes out and just slams us, well, yes, banking turmoil added in terms of toward—more of a slow burn, which
months, the economy is in the early things are slowing. But the labor mar- tightening financial conditions. But, would be unusual—isn’t a scenario in
months of a recession. ket is strong. There is still a chance as [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell said at which I think they would cut.
The Sahm rule has never applied this won’t go to a really bad place. last month’s news conference, it didn’t
outside of a formal downturn, and it help. I’m pretty close to 50/50 on the That brings us to the Sahm rule, an
isn’t indicating a recession as of now. You were an outlier among econo- chances of a recession. economic indicator you developed.
But Sahm worries that the Fed’s own mists for a while, pushing back What I feel more confident about— It posits that when the three-
economic projections, which show on predictions that a recession was and in this, I’m at odds with the month average of the unemploy-
unemployment rising to 4.5% by the imminent. So far, you have been market—is that the Federal Reserve ment rate rises half a percentage
end of this year, up from 3.5% cur- right. Do you see higher odds of a isn’t going to cut interest rates. They point or more above its low for the
rently, could suggest that one is on the recession now, if not a deep one? won’t cut until inflation has come prior 12 months, the economy is in
horizon. “That’s a really fast clip,” she At this point, a recession is the most down. If something really bad happens the early months of a recession.
says of the pace of the forecast rise. “If likely outcome. I can’t quite read—and to push the economy into a recession, How did you develop the Sahm
you’ve got that much momentum go- I’m not alone in this—how much the inflation could fall toward zero, and rule, and what is it telling us now?
ing, I don’t understand what stops it.” then the Fed would lower rates. But the To more effectively fight recessions, I
Sahm spoke with Barron’s several Photograph by JARED SOARES sort of recession we seem pointed proposed automatically sending stim-
4, 2023 BARRON’S 33
“Going too fast [on interest-rate hikes] risks the strong recovery in the labor
market. That isn’t a risk the Fed should be taking.” Claudia Sahm
pattern that has broken in the past pears to be putting its credibility as an automatic stabilizers, which would tie
three years—it’s a long list. For exam- inflation fighter—which no ordinary fiscal-relief efforts directly to economic
ple, we had two quarters of negative person questions—above all else, even conditions so that money could flow—
[gross domestic product] in 2022, and its credibility in keeping the banking or stop flowing—without direct action
didn’t have a recession. [A recession system safe and sound. Hiking again from lawmakers. In 2020, she helped
is often, but not officially, defined as in March during the banking crisis draft legislation that would have tied
two consecutive quarters of negative was incredibly risky. enhanced jobless benefits to unemploy-
growth.] So, one recession indicator ment rates, allowing the aid to continue
that has worked forever broke. If there How would you assess Powell’s for individual workers for a set amount
were ever a time for the Sahm rule to performance as Fed chair? of time, depending on how widespread
break, this would be it, because the I have a lot of respect for Powell’s com- unemployment was in their state.]
world doesn’t make sense. mitment to doing the right thing. I dis- Things like the expanded Child Tax
agree with many of the judgments of Credit, part of the American Rescue
What leads you to think the Sahm the Fed, and he is the leader of the Fed. Plan, helped a lot of families, particu-
rule could be invalidated now? The decisions reflect his thinking. But larly those at the bottom. People were
Covid created big imbalances in the U.S. there are no good choices here, and he able to save money and pay down debt.
economy, such as an abrupt shift from is honest about that. The payday lender closest to my house
spending on services to spending on One thing Powell hasn’t done, un- shut down in late 2020. I was very
goods, and millions of workers drop- like one of his predecessors, Ben Ber- happy to see that.
ping out of the labor force. “Getting nanke, is say publicly, “We can’t do
back to normal” is complicated and may this alone. We need Congress to help.” How do you counter critics of all
push up the unemployment rate some The Fed alone didn’t have the tools to that stimulus spending?
without pushing us into a recession. engineer a strong recovery from the We are going to debate this forever.
Note that 4% unemployment, which 2008-09 recession. Interest rates just Much of the Covid-related legislation
would trigger the Sahm rule, is still low. aren’t powerful enough. Quantitative was passed in the midst of a crisis. It
easing wasn’t going to cut it. wasn’t perfect, and to some extent it
The Fed raised rates by a quarter Powell had a moment [in his recent contributed to inflation. But consider
of a percentage point at its March hearing before the Senate Banking the times: When the American Rescue
policy meeting, and the market is Committee] in which he tried to say, Plan was passed, the unemployment
betting on a similar rate hike in “Interest rates are our tool to curb de- rate was over 6%. When government
May. What do you think the Fed mand. We don’t want unemployment, stimulus was passed in prior reces-
should do in May? but it’s the one tool we have.” Congress sions, the unemployment rate was
Pause. Give the world a chance to also has tools that can work to curb below that. No one knew at the time
catch up with what it has been doing— demand and pull some money out of how the pandemic would play out.
and it has done a lot. The Fed raised the economy. But he didn’t cross that Plus, there are other factors that
interest rates 4.75 percentage points line and ask for help. Fed officials don’t cut supply and drove up demand. One
within one year—the fastest increase cross it often. But he should have. reason the labor market is strong is
since [former Fed Chair Paul] Volcker Powell has done nothing that makes that people died from Covid, reducing
lifted rates in the early 1980s. Powell me question his commitment to public the number of workers. Older individ-
has been clear that the economy has service. I just don’t agree with some of uals used the pandemic as an opportu-
started into a disinflationary cycle. the decisions he has made. nity to retire. We shut down immigra-
Going too fast risks the strong recov- tion at the border.
ulus checks to families as soon as a ery in the labor market. That isn’t a You strongly supported the gener- All the labor shortages drove up
recession began. To do so, I needed a risk the Fed should be taking. ous federal spending and Covid pol- wages. They created demand. At the
reliable, data-driven indicator that one icies passed during the pandemic. same time, when the economy shut
had begun. What is now called the You were supportive of Powell’s Critics say this spending was a ma- down, people couldn’t spend. That
Sahm rule was my solution to that reappointment as Fed chair in jor contributor to inflation. Do you pent-up demand had nothing to do
problem. 2022. Yet, you have been fairly still stand by that support? with the American Rescue Plan.
The Sahm rule tells us where we critical of Fed policy over the past I absolutely support the policies. As I am open to the idea that the Rescue
are right now, not where we are going. year or so. Where have you dis- with any piece of legislation, any pro- Plan had mistakes. It is important to
So, that is the first thing: It isn’t pre- agreed with the Fed’s approach? gram put together on the fly in a crisis, learn lessons from this; the paint isn’t
dictive. Also, the rule is based on a I am concerned that the Fed is under- we will say later about some of the de- dry. But it is already clear that the relief
pattern; it isn’t a law of nature. But it estimating the risks to workers from tails, “Yeah, we could have done this helped families and helped the labor
is highly accurate, and has been trig- going too fast and too high with better.” I wouldn’t have put the biggest market recover. Inflation is a hardship;
gered in the early months of every interest-rate hikes. The Fed has a checks at the end; I would have put the lack of a paycheck is a tragedy, or a
recession, and never triggered outside dual mandate of stable prices and them at the beginning. And I would disaster, for a family.
of a recession, since 1970. maximum employment, and it must have made them automatic.
That said, think of every empirical pursue both. In addition, the Fed ap- [Sahm is a leading proponent of Thank you, Claudia. B
34 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
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April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 35
MARKET WEEK
April 17 through April 21, 2023
Dow Jones Industrials S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
33,808.96
52-wk: -0.01% YTD: +2.00% Wkly: -0.23%
4133.52
52-wk: -3.24% YTD: +7.66% Wkly: -0.10%
12,072.46
52-wk: -5.97% YTD: +15.34% Wkly: -0.42%
$144.92
52-wk: -4.90% YTD: +2.60% Wkly: +0.19%
4%
Calm Before the Storm Seeing Red Mixed Messages
Stocks drifted higher on Lackluster economic data April manufacturing and
Monday ahead of a deluge of on Thursday morning raised services data beat forecasts
first-quarter earnings reports. recession concerns. Major on Friday, although both
House Speaker Kevin indexes closed lower, showed little sign of inflation 2
McCarthy laid out a debt- dragged down mostly by easing. Stock indexes had
ceiling plan during a growth-oriented shares. a choppy day to end the
speech at the NYSE. week lower.
Micro-Driven Trading
Tuesday’s earnings parade
included results from Bank
of America, Goldman Sachs, -2
Johnson & Johnson, and
Netflix. Despite big moves
under the surface, stock
indexes closed flat.
-4
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Close
Source: Barron’s Statistics
F
or the stock market, Covid peak, but growth is slowing Wells Fargo. “We think you need to
reporting season appears to be going swim- slows. The stock market’s rally, too, shows
mingly. Earnings from S&P 500 companies that investors are less worried and have
that have reported have come in almost 5% less need for the American currency as a
missing out on! rewarded, those that miss aren’t being pun-
ished all that much. Companies that have
announced earnings and sales that beat
reached in late September.
There’s more room for the buck to fall.
It’s near 100, a key level of support where
expectations have gained 2.3%, versus buyers have stepped in several times in the
an average advance of 1% over the past five past year. If those buyers don’t show up
years. A double miss has resulted in a mere this time, the dollar could lose support,
1.8% drop, versus an average 2.9% decline. which could open the door to a drop to
4.33%* That could be a sign that the worst for the
economy is actually over. And that possibil-
roughly 95, according to John Kolovos,
the chief technical strategist at Macro Risk
ity—for the moment, at least—is showing up Advisors.
in analysts’ forecasts. About 76% of compa- That would be good news for the stock
nies in the MSCI USA Index have seen up- market. A weaker greenback means that
wardly revised earnings estimates for the overseas sales for companies based in the
next year, according to Ned Davis Research. U.S. will translate into more dollars when
That’s the highest level in 10 months and up they’re converted back from foreign curren-
from a recent low of just under 60%, and it cies. With 60% of S&P 500 revenue coming
could be a sign that estimates have bottomed from overseas, that would be a tailwind for
and are ready to rebound. U.S. corporate profits. In fact, the S&P 500
“The increasingly positive revisions rate averages a 1.3% gain in months when the
makes it more likely that, after close to two dollar index falls, dating back to 1985, ac-
years of increasingly pessimistic earnings cording to Dow Jones market data, versus
sentiment, investors will buy on expecta- a mere 0.2% gain when the buck rises.
tions of better earnings ahead,” writes Tim Individual stocks can do even better. Cat-
Hayes, chief global investment strategist at erpillar (ticker: CAT), Nvidia (NVDA), and
Ned Davis Research. Micron Technology (MU), which get at
Call it complacent, call it shortsighted, least half of their sales overseas, have been
call it just plain stupid, but sometimes the rising as the dollar has dropped. Caterpillar
stock market is right to shrug off what stock is up a bit more than 35% from the
feels like a pressing concern. This might date of the buck’s peak in late September,
0.45% be one of those times. while Nvidia has doubled and Micron is up
Vital Signs
Friday’s Week’s Week’s Friday’s Week’s Week’s
Close Change % Chg. Close Change % Chg.
DJ Industrials 33808.96 -77.51 -0.23 Barron’s Future Focus 872.92 -5.85 -0.67
DJ Transportation 14413.58 +166.98 +1.17 Barron’s Next 50 2347.19 -44.58 -1.86
DJ Utilities 969.34 +12.87 +1.35 Barron’s 400 925.14 -2.64 -0.28
DJ 65 Stocks 11312.72 +41.49 +0.37 Last Week Week Earlier
DJ US Market 1007.75 -0.77 -0.08 NYSE Advances 1,466 2,032
NYSE Comp. 15578.93 -22.85 -0.15 Declines 1,702 1,124
ibkr.com/dont-miss-out NYSE Amer Comp. 4254.31 -131.48 -3.00 Unchanged 54 75
S&P 500 4133.52 -4.12 -0.10 New Highs 169 132
S&P MidCap 2498.83 +9.36 +0.38 New Lows 95 95
S&P SmallCap 1160.11 -3.60 -0.31 Av Daily Vol (mil) 3,620.8 3,579.0
Member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC. Supporting documentation for any claims and statistical information will be provided upon request. Nasdaq 12072.46 -51.01 -0.42 Dollar (Finex spot index) 101.72 101.55
Graphic reflects rates paid on uninvested instantly available cash in your brokerage account. Competitor rates and offers subject to Value Line (arith.) 8973.80 -3.64 -0.04 T-Bond (CBT nearby futures) 129-29 130-23
change without notice. Services vary by firm. [*] Rate shown applies to IBKR Pro clients only. Long-settled cash balances held in the
Russell 2000 1791.51 +10.35 +0.58 Crude Oil (NYM light sweet crude) 77.87 82.52
securities segment of accounts with NAV>100k earn the stated interest rate 4/5/2023 and those with NAV<100k earn a proportional
DJ US TSM Float 41271.18 -19.10 -0.05 Inflation KR-CRB (Futures Price Index) 270.80 276.22
rate. Cash held in the commodities segment of an account does not earn interest. For more information, see ibkr.com/interestpaid
04-IB23-1618-HP Gold (CMX nearby futures) 1979.50 2002.20
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 37
Industry Action
Performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Industrials, ranked by weekly percent change.*
–5.57
–2.53 Oil & Gas
Telecommunications
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES SECTOR
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
OF THE S&P 500 IN ONE ETF
lar slips, suggesting that there may be still in part because of its $30 billion-plus back-
more gains ahead, even though they have log of orders, about half of 2022’s sales of Visit www.sectorspdrs.com or call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF
already had massive rallies. (For more on $59.4 billion. That means there’s equipment
Caterpillar, see below.) yet to be delivered and recognized as sales,
An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a
Investors looking for less-volatile benefi- something that should be far easier to do as prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 1-866-SECTOR-ETF or visit www.sectorspdrs.com. Read the
ciaries of a falling dollar could consider supply-chain constraints continue to ease prospectus carefully before investing.
Philip Morris International (PM), which and the company can produce and deliver All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Sector ETF products are also subject to sector risks and non-diversification risks, which generally
gets all its sales outside the U.S., and Estée more dump trucks, backhoes, and other results in greater price fluctuations than the overall stock market. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
Lauder (EL), which gets 80%. These machinery. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
stocks average a 3% gain in months when “They’ve been supply-constrained,” says ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust.
the dollar falls, but are less volatile than Edward Jones analyst Matt Arnold. “If they
the broader market because they are far are able to produce more and deliver more,
less tied to broader economic demand. that’s typically a setting where margins
If the greenback keeps sliding, they improve.”
might be the way to go. The counterargument is that the backlog
reflects past customer demand, not the cur-
Buy Caterpillar Before Earnings rent environment. Sales are expected to
Caterpillar stock has had a rough year— grow by a mere 6%, to just over $63 billion,
rough enough that the stock could pop in 2023, down from 17% in 2022, as price
after it reports earnings on April 27. increases slow and demand for machinery
Shares of the machinery manufacturer decelerates. If those dynamics worsen,
Puzzled. Look.
are down just over 7% in 2023 amid con- Caterpillar’s operating margin would have
cerns about its profit outlook. Nearly three- nowhere to go but down. It’s currently
quarters of Caterpillar’s sales come from expected to rise to just over 16% this year,
construction and energy customers, both up from 13% in 2022.
of which will invest less in heavy equip- Analysts expect an operating profit of
ment if their industries continue to slow. As $10.2 billion this year, translating into profits
a result of the decline, the stock now trades of $15.92 a share, and the company will have Your morning ritual just got better.
at just 14 times expected earnings per share the chance to offer guidance that it’s on track
Introducing Barron's covers jigsaws,
for the next 12 months, almost half of its to meet—or beat—that. If it does, the stock
post-Covid peak of 26 times—a tumble could get a boost because it isn’t currently sudoku and crossword puzzles.
known as a derating in Wall Street par- reflecting much optimism about this year’s
lance—and below the S&P 500’s 18 times. earnings outlook. barrons.com/puzzles
“The recent derating implies investors The market needs to see that the big-
expect negative earnings revisions to com- equipment manufacturer is still on track
mence over the next couple of quarters,” to hit those numbers—and if it is, the stock
writes J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria, could get a boost after the earnings an-
who rates the stock Overweight. “We see nouncement because it’s already cheap.
opportunity to own CAT.” “You get a lot of potential [stock] perfor-
Caterpillar is expected to report a first- mance when you have so much negative
quarter profit of $3.80 per share on sales of sentiment,” says Dave Wagner, a portfolio
$15.1 billion, and unlike many companies, its manager at Optus Capital Advisors, which
earnings estimates have been going up, not owns the stock.
down. Analysts have raised their 2023 fore- And that’s potential Caterpillar should © 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 4E6049
INTERNATIONAL TRADER
India’s Big Tech Controls
Are Overlooked—for Now
BY CRAIG MELLOW fines and potentially criminal action
against compliance officers, says Jeff Paine,
I
ndia probably surpassed China as the the Asia Internet Coalition’s managing
world’s most populous nation this director. “It’s very hard for people to invest
month, so far as one can count develop- in such an uncertain regulatory environ-
Financial
The Asia Internet Coalition, which months. India banned a BBC bio-documen-
unites a dozen luminaries including tary on Modi and arrested college students
Meta Platforms (ticker: FB), Twitter, and who organized a campus screening. Last
Amazon.com (AMZN), blasted new social- month, a court sentenced opposition leader
Literacy Month
media controls from Prime Minister Naren- Rahul Gandhi to two years in jail for “defa-
dra Modi’s government. The rules, which mation,” after he implied on the hustings
took effect on April 6, jeopardize “people’s that Modi was a thief. The sentence would
fundamental right to access information,” conveniently keep him out of the May 2024
the group said. poll.
Days later, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Modi’s strong-arm tactics can serve the
Cook jetted to New Delhi to shake Modi’s public, though, as India seeks a great leap
We continue to be committed to developing the next hand, after opening the iPhone giant’s first forward toward better railways, roads, and
generation of business leaders with a strong focus two Indian stores. “We’re committed to power grids, says Venkat Pasupuleti, port-
growing and investing across the country,” folio co-manager for India at Dalton Invest-
on students and diversity. We recognize and thank Cook tweeted. ments. The government announced that
the many companies and professional individuals The contrasting rhetoric underlines the it will hike capital spending by a third this
crossroads that India has reached as Modi, year, to $122 billion. “Stronger central
that sponsor our program, allowing us to bring our 72, wraps up his second five-year term and power reduces the amount of leakage and
resources to schools at no cost to students. probably eyes a third in elections next year: kickbacks,” he says.
cutting corners on democracy while gun- Direct electronic payments of state bene-
ning to be the next-gen growth market as fits has been another boon to India’s heavily
We invite you to join us in this effort as we continue a richer China slows. rural population, who used to have to fight
Pluses outweigh minuses for most inves- red tape and skimming middlemen when
to welcome schools and sponsors dedicated to tors, for the moment. “I wouldn’t be con- their entitlements were doled out in cash.
diversifying the future of business. cerned about authoritarian drift compared High valuations leave Pasupuleti cau-
with India’s remarkable infrastructure in- tious on Indian stocks as investors shift
vestment,” says Rajeeb Pramanik, senior to a rebounding China and other cheaper
For more information, please contact: emerging markets strategist at BCA Re- markets. But he would dive back in “after
search. “People don’t have to walk two another 10% to 15% correction.”
BarronsEDU@barrons.com miles to get drinking water anymore. That’s Investors once embraced similar ratio-
why Modi has a 67% approval rating.” nalizations for Russia’s Vladimir Putin and
That’s of limited comfort to Meta, whose Turkey’s Recep Erdogan, leaders less in
Facebook and Instagram apps dominate markets’ favor now. India can still avoid
Indian social media. Meta flagged India, following suit, says Perth Tolle, founder
Bangladesh, and the Philippines as Face- of the Life + Liberty indexes, which rank
book’s top drivers of user growth last year. emerging markets on freedom, and ex-
Delhi’s latest regulations give authori- cluded India in 2019. “Most investors, in-
ties the right to block any online “misin- cluding me, are surprised that India is not
formation,” based on the judgment of the in the index,” she says. “Their situation is
government’s own Press Information very dynamic and could turn around.”
© 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 2EIIE6080 Bureau. A platform that refuses will incur Let’s hope so. B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 39
T H E ST R IKING PRIC E
The Fed is raising interest rates, but few people
seem to grasp the totality of what happens after
two decades of accommodative monetary policy.
195
30
T
he future is on trial. from one top bank would spark sympathy 23
It’s so hard to decipher what is rallies in others. Susquehanna Financial 115
occurring inside and outside of Group options strategist Chris Jacobson
markets that earnings season has calls the trading “ripple exposure.” 16 75
become an unusually high-stakes debate The absence of the typical wait-and-see M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
over what happens next in the economy. approach to earnings within a sector might Daily Values Source: CBOE Source: McMillan Analysis Corp.
The tense dynamic always exists, but reflect changes in how some investors are
there is little to no margin for error this dealing with low volatility, and the specter
time around. Investors are worried that that stocks will increasingly move with one SPX Skew NDX Skew
stock valuations could decline if corporate another in response to macro events. Implied volatility % Implied volatility %
earnings are worse than expected and Goldman Sachs has advised clients that 13% 12%
analysts lower future estimates. options are implying that the average S&P
12 11
The tribes of Wall Street—analysts, trad- 500 stock will move 4.4%—in either direc-
ers, fund managers, and economists—are tion—on earnings day, down from the long- 11 10
essentially holding hands in a giant circle term average of 5.5%. The expectation that 10 9
and looking at one another in hopes that muted stock moves will continue could be
someone soon deciphers the scene. wrong if analysts lower earnings estimates. 9 8
Everyone knows that the Federal There isn’t much angst reflected in the 8 7
Reserve is normalizing historically low in- Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which is just
7 6
terest rates, but few people, if any, seem to under 17, below its long-term average of 19.
grasp the totality of what happens after two Massive options funds that sell index op- 6 5
decades of accommodative monetary policy. tions could be tamping down S&P 500 vol- M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
The Fed’s rate-setting committee will con- atility, making it seem that investors aren’t Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy
clude a two-day meeting on May 3. A quar- worried about stocks. Skew indicates whether the options market expects a stock-market advance or decline. It measures the difference between the implied
volatility of puts and calls that are 10% out of the money and expire in three months. Higher readings are bearish.
ter-point rate hike is expected—and that is The VIX’s low volatility could explain
all that is clear about the rate outlook. the “ripple exposure” trading, as equity-
The mighty bond market, which is con- level volatility is often more robust than Week’s Most Active
sidered more thoughtful and mature than indexes. The VIX implies that the S&P 500 Company Symbol Tot Vol Calls Puts Avg Tot Vol IV %ile Ratio
the histrionic stock market, is often dour index will move about 1% each day, far less BELLUS Health BLU 53327 8118 45209 316 16 168.8
Fgamida Cell GMDA 93205 91282 1923 2592 87 36.0
about the future. The stock market is ner- than its component stocks. United Insurance UIHC 6958 6434 524 228 87 30.5
vous, but not in any major way. The S&P 500 is dancing around critical Prometheus Biosciences RXDX 26335 8553 17782 1280 62 20.6
One insight into investor sentiment can technical levels that tend to intrigue macro Marinus Pharmaceuticals MRNS 15723 15503 220 848 63 18.5
Dragonfly Energy DFLI 18297 17343 954 1300 64 14.1
be gleaned from the options market, which hedge funds. On most days, it seems that Catalent CTLT 129449 95015 34434 10908 95 11.9
is showing some unusual trading patterns they are using futures to bully the index Trupanion TRUP 28099 10934 17165 2728 97 10.3
in the earnings season’s nascent stages. In- below technical resistance levels. Legend Biotech LEGN 6760 5792 968 660 4 10.2
CymaBay Therapeutics CBAY 6367 6200 167 644 17 9.9
vestors normally wager on earnings reports Todd Salamone, a strategist at Schaeffer’s
Arcutis Biotherapeutics ARQT 4138 4039 99 436 39 9.5
by pre-positioning with bullish calls or Investment Research, noted that February’s Global Payments GPN 28953 15476 13477 3628 55 8.0
bearish put options on companies that are 4160 high in the S&P 500 was followed by J. B. Hunt JBHT 24127 14814 9313 3136 18 7.7
reporting. The actual report is then used to a greater-than 7% drop over the next six State Street STT 45639 18538 27101 6144 41 7.4
Algonquin Power AQN 48437 11374 37063 6628 68 7.3
refine trades for peer stocks. weeks. “Bulls and the 4160 level have not LegalZoom.com LZ 5200 5161 39 716 2 7.3
But this time, investors are using one mixed well in recent history,” he said. B Intuitive Surgical ISRG 78684 48289 30395 10976 11 7.2
company’s earnings report as an opportu- Haker Hughes BKR 56483 49704 6779 7988 0 7.1
Cilius Pharmaceuticals CTXR 19656 19589 67 3416 56 5.8
nity to express directional biases with op- Steven M. Sears is the president and chief oper-
Six Flags Entertainment SIX 13555 12865 690 2360 3 5.7
tions on other, related stocks in expectation ating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized
that a bad or good earnings report will asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm This table of the most active options this week, as compared to average weekly activity – not just raw volume. The idea is that the unusually heavy trading in these options might be a predictor of
corporate activity – takeovers, earnings surprises, earnings pre-announcements, biotech FDA hearings or drug trial result announcements, and so forth. Dividend arbitrage has been eliminated. In
move the sector in the same direction. has a position in the options or underlying securi- short, this list attempts to identify where heavy speculation is taking place. These options are likely to be expensive in comparison to their usual pricing levels. Furthermore, many of these
situations may be rumor-driven. Most rumors do not prove to be true, so one should be aware of these increased risks if trading in these names
Earlier this month, for instance, there ties mentioned in this column. Ratio is the Tot Vol divided by Avg Tot Vol. IV %ile is how expensive the options are on a scale from 0 to 100. Source: McMillan Analysis
40 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
IN SIDE SC OOP
Purple Innovation (PRPL) POWER PLAY
Coliseum Capital holds
Are Deals
46,814,450 shares of the mattress-
and-bedding retailer, equal to
44.4% stake when accounting for
outstanding Class A and Class B
stock. On April 11, Purple Innova-
Delayed,
Delta Air Lines Director
tion and Coliseum Capital entered
into a memorandum of under-
standing, or MOU, that laid the
groundwork for a cooperation
agreement by April 19. Under the
Not Dead?
David Taylor Buys Up Stock MOU’s and the agreement’s terms,
Purple Innovation’s board will
increase to eight seats and include
BY CARLETON ENGLISH
B
three new appointees, among other ankers and activists are itch-
changes. Further, Coliseum Capital ing for deals but it’s unlikely
BY ED LIN form he filed with the Securities and co-founder Adam Gray, who has many will come to fruition
D
Exchange Commission, Taylor now served on Purple Innovation’s soon in a still-challenging
elta Air Lines stock is owns 15,360 Delta shares in a per- board since early 2018, will become macroeconomic climate.
on the rise this year, and sonal account, and another 46,650 chairman. Scott Peterson, a board Activists proposed merger-and-
director David S. Taylor shares through a trust. Delta Air Lines observer since last September, will acquisition-type strategies in 42%
just scooped up a large Taylor served as CEO of Procter & director David S. be included with Purple Innova- of the campaigns launched in the
block of shares of the Gamble (PG) from 2015 to 2021. He Taylor just bought tion’s other board nominees during first quarter, falling just short of the
airline. joined private-equity firm Clayton $170,000 worth the 2023 annual shareholders 46% of M&A strategies sought in
Delta stock (ticker: Dubilier & Rice last year as an operat- of shares of the meeting. The agreement also calls the fourth quarter of 2022, accord-
DAL) has gained about 4% year to ing advisor. The firm didn’t make airline. It’s Delta’s for the settlement of litigation be- ing to data provided by Lazard.
date, below the 4% rise in the S&P Taylor available for comment. second insider tween Purple Innovation and Coli- However, the first quarter’s per-
500 index. In April, Delta’s upbeat Taylor, who joined Delta’s board in stock purchase seum that was overseen by the Del- centage of M&A-type strategies far
outlook for the second quarter and August 2019, last bought the airline’s this year. aware Court of the Chancery and exceeded the 32% seen in the year-
year overshadowed a disappointing stock on the open market in July reverse recent stock voting amend- ago quarter.
first-quarter report. Airlines in gen- 2022, when he paid $293,100 for ments. It also requires Purple Inno- Many of these strategies called
eral expect strong demand in 2023 10,000 shares, an average price of vation to redeem noninterest pre- for companies to divest noncore
as travelers return to the skies. It will $29.31 each. ferred shares issued last quarter as assets, as even hard-charging ac-
certainly be better than in 2022, a year The only other Delta insider stock a stock dividend to the retailer’s tivists realized the challenges of
that Delta CEO Ed Bastian character- purchase this year was in January, common shareholders. One pre- pushing for more ambitious M&A.
ized as “the most difficult operational when Chairman Frank Blake paid ferred share was issued for every But even divestitures require a
year in our history.” $500,000 for 12,880 Delta shares, 100 common Purple Innovation buyer on the other side of the
Taylor paid $167,800 on April 14 an average price of $38.58 each. shares owned, and carried 10,000 transaction. With interest rates
for 5,000 Delta shears, an average Delta is one of Barron’s 10 best votes each, in response to Coli- now high and the economic pic-
price of $33.56 each. According to a stock picks for this year. B seum’s earlier efforts to nominate ture uncertain, fewer buyers are
five directors. willing to bite—even as some valu-
ations have come down after
2022’s market slump.
Activist Holdings chases. Shah Capital also believes that These disclosures are
from 13Ds filed with
Increases in That challenging dynamic is
likely to hold steady through this
Veon (VEON)
Veon should reduce its debt, both to
cut its interest expense and strengthen
its credit ratings. Additionally, Shah
the Securities and
Exchange Commission.
13Ds are filed within
Holdings year, according to executives at
Goldman Sachs Group (ticker:
GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).
10 days of an entity’s
Shah Capital reported a stake in Capital feels that Veon should spin off attaining more than Alta Equipment Group While companies have a desire to
the Netherlands-based communica- or sell various business units and 5% in any class of a (ALTG) do deals to build scale and other
company’s securities.
tions firm of 3,504,735 American “strive relentlessly to be included in all Subsequent changes B. Riley Financial (RILY) boosted advantages over competitors, so far
depositary receipts, a 5% interest emerging market indexes and fintech/ in holdings or inten- its holding in the operator of heavy- this year there has been a lot talk
in the company. Shah Capital deliv- telecom” exchange-traded funds. Shah tions must be re- equipment dealerships to 6,793,217 and little action—the banks saw
ported in amended
ered a letter to Veon’s board dated Capital says Veon can reach a valua- filings. This material is shares, including 653,454 shares first-quarter revenue for invest-
April 14 outlining a strategy to boost tion of six times enterprise value/ from April 13 through held by B. Riley Financial founder ment banking drop roughly 25%.
April 19, 2023. Source:
Veon’s stock price, including the earnings before interest, taxes, depreci- VerityData (verity-
Bryant Riley. From April 4 through “These are revenue delayed, not
strategic use of the firm’s roughly ation, and amortization, or EV/Ebitda, platform.com) April 17, B. Riley Financial bought dead,” said Morgan Stanley Chair-
$2.5 billion in cash. Shah Capital by the end of 2024 if the firm success- 139,000 Alta Equipment shares man and CEO James Gorman on an
proposes that Veon announce fully implements its recommendations. ranging in price from $13.49 to analyst call Wednesday. “Already,
a $200 million 10b5-1 buyback plan Veon ADRs have rocketed more than $14.15 apiece. B. Riley Financial we’re seeing a growing M&A pipe-
and “pledge to use 50% of annual 60% so far this year, and are up more now owns 21.1% of Alta Equip- line and some springlike signs of
free cash flow” for ongoing repur- than 35% in the past 12 months. ment’s outstanding stock. new issuance emerging. That said,
it largely remains a back-half 2023
and full-year 2024 story.” B
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 41
Tesla Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile Western Alliance Bancorp SL Green Realty
TSLA (NASD) • $165.08 • -19.92 SQM (NYSE) • $63.44 • -15.76 WAL (NYSE) • $40.59 • 8.93 SLG (NYSE) • $24.08 • 1.15
The electric-car maker’s $23 billion in March-quar- To benefit from electric-car battery demand, The Phoenix-based banker said deposits were Amid fears for its portfolio of Manhattan office
ter sales, and 85 cents a share profit, met fore- Chile’s government wants majority stakes in Chil- rebounding. Relieved investors lifted other regional buildings, the real estate investment trust reported
casts. But price cuts pinched gross margins. ean lithium mines now run by SQM and Albermarle. banks, like PacWest and First Republic. a smaller March-quarter loss than expected.
The charts record the net change in share price, the high, low and closing trades, and share volume for companies with noteworthy stock activity last week. In addition, the graphs depict last week’s daily price activity in detail. The dotted line on some graphs denotes the stock’s 200-day moving average; lack of a moving average means the shares have traded for less than
that time period. If the close from the current week is lower than a year ago the graph will be presented in red. If the close from the current week is higher than a year ago then the graph will be presented in green.
42 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
POCKET MONEY
GE T THE TOOL S , INSIGHTS
AND EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
WITH THE MARKETWATCH APP.
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NYSE Biggest % Movers NYSE Most Active NYSE American Most Active Nasdaq Most Active
Winners Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change
XPO(XPO) 24180 44.02 +10.72 +32.2 ApolloStratII A(APGB) 27546 876.9 10.28 +0.03 MastechDigital(MHH) 1248 1013.7 9.47 –0.33 BELLUS Health(BLU) 191716 5803.6 14.43 +7.37
GravitasEduc(GEHI) 11 17.77 +3.97 +28.8 AltC Acqn(ALCC) 7836 745.4 10.27 +0.16 inTEST(INTT) 1415 126.8 21.16 +1.07 BlueWorldA(BWAQ) 1375 5165.5 10.52 +0.05
WestAllianceBcp(WAL) 36221 40.59 +8.93 +28.2 HeartlandMediaA(HMA) 2035 705.6 10.43 +0.01 HorizonII A(HZON) 303 84.0 11.31 +0.01 PrimeNumberI A(PNAC) 767 2054.7 10.45 +0.06
Hims&HersHealth(HIMS) 29044 11.68 +1.92 +19.7 OsirisAcqn(OSI) 230 680.0 9.95 –0.01 EVI Industries(EVI) 207 81.8 17.56 –2.10 FatProjectsAcqn(FATP) 1019 1271.2 10.90 +0.47
Westwood(WHG) 65 12.45 +1.85 +17.5 PyrophyteAcqn(PHYT) 2228 591.1 10.57 +0.02 IdahoStratRscs(IDR) 115 78.7 5.97 +0.92 VisionSensingA(VSAC) 705 1144.6 10.55 +0.03
PhoenixNewMedia(FENG) 186 2.63 +0.37 +16.4 JacksonAcqnA(RJAC) 630 530.4 10.33 +0.02 RileyExpln(REPX) 423 65.8 46.47 +0.23 PrometheusBio(RXDX) 25972 967.6 194.07 +80.06
HeritageInsurance(HRTG) 556 3.43 +0.47 +15.9 AthenaTechII A(ATEK) 2189 459.4 10.28 –0.01 AultDisruptive(ADRT) 167 42.4 10.49 –0.02 TreanInsurance(TIG) 9897 891.5 6.16 +0.02
NewOrientalEduc(EDU) 15057 43.02 +5.40 +14.4 KimbellTigerA(TGR) 2779 435.6 10.56 +0.02 AltisourceAsset(AAMC) 102 25.1 82.10 +13.10 AriszAcqnA(ARIZ) 464 785.7 10.41 +0.04
ConstellationI A(CSTA) 524 374.7 10.28 +0.01 MetallaRoyalty(MTA) 987 17.7 5.08 –0.54 TelaBio(TELA) 1156 702.5 9.49 –1.31
Losers LiveOakCrestA(LOCC) 331 362.6 10.12 0.00 Chase(CCF) 139 16.1 108.88 +6.62 UTA Acqn A(UTAA) 1472 675.2 10.45 +0.02
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
ChurchillVII A(CVII) 14802 284.3 10.16 0.00 EquinoxGold(EQX) 13568 12.1 5.00 –0.44 ChainBridgeIA(CBRG) 1958 582.8 10.47 +0.01
FiscalNote(NOTE) 10394 1.86 –0.84 –31.1 LearnCWInvtA(LCW) 924 280.6 10.34 +0.07 CompX Intl(CIX) 35 2.9 18.00 –0.61 JupiterWellnessA(JWAC) 2064 572.5 10.50 –0.10
Mytheresa(MYTE) 888 5.30 –1.96 –27.0 TrineIIAcqnA(TRAQ) 3588 249.2 10.48 +0.01 InfuSystems(INFU) 250 2.2 8.78 –0.72 AuraFatProjectsA(AFAR) 837 546.7 10.48 –0.01
CheetahMobile(CMCM) 152 2.16 –0.59 –21.5 HimalayaShipping(HSHP) 191 214.8 5.80 –0.04 EmpirePetrol(EP) 101 2.0 11.29 –1.40 NewProvidenceII A(NPAB) 1276 513.3 10.41 +0.04
GettyImages(GETY) 2216 5.06 –1.26 –19.9 SOQUIMICH(SQM) 25206 208.1 63.44 –15.76 MexcoEnergy(MXC) 32 1.7 12.30 –0.30 LegendBiotech(LEGN) 15526 399.1 69.70 +16.68
SOQUIMICH(SQM) 25206 63.44 –15.76 –19.9 Catalent(CTLT) 38334 205.4 45.03 –1.29 BattalionOil(BATL) 71 –1.2 6.95 –1.14 ContextLogic(WISH) 26750 362.0 8.52 +0.95
BigLots(BIG) 10051 8.43 –2.01 –19.3 SouthportAcqnA(PORT) 1100 204.6 10.40 +0.02 AcmeUnited(ACU) 34 –2.9 26.99 +1.34 Vaxcyte(PCVX) 15496 351.8 45.12 +8.62
MP Materials(MP) 17092 22.74 –5.26 –18.8 Shift4Paymts(FOUR) 20343 194.2 65.53 –4.70 CoreMoldingTech(CMT) 282 –4.6 19.14 –0.24 LongboardPharm(LBPH) 800 329.9 7.25 +1.17
Li-Cycle(LICY) 6388 4.69 –0.94 –16.7 XPO(XPO) 24180 183.2 44.02 +10.72 TompkinsFin(TMP) 224 –8.7 59.45 –1.30 TarsusPharm(TARS) 1871 329.1 14.95 +3.38
SphereEnt(SPHR) 2719 178.8 25.61 –1.62 MAG Silver(MAG) 3006 –9.4 12.84 –0.99 RelayTherap(RLAY) 26156 324.3 12.74 –4.70
NYSE American Biggest % Movers By Share Volume By Share Volume By Share Volume
Winners Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. BankofAmerica(BAC) 351202 29.87 +0.35 +1.2 Tellurian(TELL) 48432 1.36 –0.20 –12.8 BedBath(BBBY) 2280801 0.29 +0.06 +23.3
AltisourceAsset(AAMC) 102 82.10 +13.10 +19.0 AT&T(T) 290115 18.22 –1.71 –8.6 B2Gold(BTG) 45772 4.10 –0.19 –4.4 Tesla(TSLA) 668219 165.08 –19.92 –10.8
IdahoStratRscs(IDR) 115 5.97 +0.92 +18.2 FordMotor(F) 274648 11.81 –0.71 –5.7 AultAlliance(AULT) 37229 0.10 –0.01 –5.1 FaradayFuture(FFIE) 310366 0.22 –0.05 –18.7
AirIndustries(AIRI) 28 3.86 +0.36 +10.3 NIO(NIO) 229564 8.33 –0.94 –10.1 UniqueFabricating(UFAB) 31180 0.17 –0.01 –5.6 Amazon.com(AMZN) 282051 106.96 +4.45 +4.3
Mallinckrodt(MNK) 90 6.00 +0.50 +9.1 KeyCorp(KEY) 206024 11.59 –0.50 –4.1 GeniusGroup(GNS) 20940 1.07 –0.13 –10.8 Apple(AAPL) 248470 165.02 –0.19 –0.1
BluerockHomes(BHM) 77 18.84 +1.32 +7.5 SchwabC(SCHW) 166953 53.80 +3.03 +6.0 UraniumEner(UEC) 19910 2.61 –0.23 –8.1 AdvMicroDevices(AMD) 218778 88.43 –3.32 –3.6
Chase(CCF) 139 108.88 +6.62 +6.5 Nokia(NOK) 166505 4.22 –0.68 –13.9 Senseonics(SENS) 17843 0.64 +0.05 +8.6 NVIDIA(NVDA) 205527 271.19 +3.61 +1.3
BM Tech(BMTX) 211 3.28 +0.19 +6.1 Vale(VALE) 153904 14.27 –1.69 –10.6 NewGold(NGD) 17452 1.29 –0.07 –5.1 BELLUS Health(BLU) 191716 14.43 +7.37 +104.4
inTEST(INTT) 1415 21.16 +1.07 +5.3 Carnival(CCL) 140021 9.38 –0.22 –2.3 Parts Id(ID) 17307 0.35 +0.09 +34.6 GamidaCell(GMDA) 168069 1.60 +0.79 +98.3
Snap(SNAP) 135516 10.01 –0.68 –6.4 DenisonMines(DNN) 15544 1.02 –0.02 –1.9 PrestoAutomation(PRST) 148786 3.61 +2.22 +159.7
Losers WellsFargo(WFC) 125349 41.24 +1.60 +4.0 FOXOTechnologies(FOXO) 15260 0.55 –0.16 –22.1 Nikola(NKLA) 141214 0.92 +0.10 +12.5
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
FirstRepBank(FRC) 123341 14.26 +1.14 +8.7 Globalstar(GSAT) 14979 1.02 –0.01 –1.0 Intel(INTC) 140069 30.30 –1.59 –5.0
Nuburu(BURU) 5010 1.56 –0.85 –35.3 CreditSuisse(CS) 115528 0.89 –0.07 –7.2 SatixFyComms(SATX) 14717 1.45 +0.67 +85.4 Alphabet A(GOOGL) 138488 105.41 –3.46 –3.2
MultiWays(MWG) 746 5.89 –2.30 –28.1 US Bancorp(USB) 112342 33.52 –1.45 –4.1 EquinoxGold(EQX) 13568 5.00 –0.44 –8.1 Rivian(RIVN) 128734 12.25 –1.13 –8.4
SifcoInd(SIF) 78 2.80 –0.81 –22.4 Uber(UBER) 110961 30.83 –0.65 –2.1 Zomedica(ZOM) 13111 0.21 –0.01 –3.3 AmerAirlines(AAL) 123327 13.40 +0.61 +4.8
eMagin(EMAN) 3613 1.93 –0.46 –19.2 PalantirTech(PLTR) 103864 8.18 –0.63 –7.2 RingEnergy(REI) 11326 1.76 –0.25 –12.4 CiscoSystems(CSCO) 117822 47.03 –3.51 –6.9
MaiaBiotech(MAIA) 664 2.95 –0.65 –18.1 Alibaba(BABA) 102659 89.13 –5.42 –5.7 DunxinFinl(DXF) 9436 0.13 +0.02 +16.9 Alphabet C(GOOG) 108255 105.91 –3.55 –3.2
StandardLithium(SLI) 2591 3.50 –0.62 –15.0 Verizon(VZ) 100537 37.32 –1.90 –4.8 MatinasBioPharma(MTNB) 7635 0.61 +0.17 +38.8 AllarityTherap(ALLR) 106330 0.51 –0.93 –64.6
BattalionOil(BATL) 71 6.95 –1.14 –14.1 PetroleoBrasil(PBR) 99823 11.60 –0.46 –3.8 NorthernDynasty(NAK) 7602 0.22 –0.05 –17.2 Microsoft(MSFT) 105945 285.76 –0.38 –0.1
RingEnergy(REI) 11326 1.76 –0.25 –12.4 Getaround(GETR) 93140 0.52 +0.27 +105.7 ProtalixBio(PLX) 7012 2.36 –0.11 –4.5 Lyft(LYFT) 101282 10.44 +0.27 +2.7
Includes Common shares only. All figures reflect activity for the most-recent five-day trading week. Share volume figures are expressed in thousands. Volume percentage leaders exclude stocks with average daily volume of fewer than 5,000 shares or priced under $5.
Average volume is based on 65 trading days. Volume figures do not reflect extended trading hours. a-Stock has not been in existence or not been traded for 65 consecutive sessions. S-Stock split or stock dividend amounting to 10% or more. X-Ex-dividend
44 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
RE SEARCH REPORTS
For a look back at more analyst
research and reports, go online to
Barrons.com/researchreports
or other services to the economies of scale in a high fixed- Buy • Price $49.56 on April 14
the companies being cost business like foundries favor the by BofA Global Research
analyzed.
largest players, like TSMC. We expect Insider Transactions Ratio
TSMC’s foundry business to Citigroup’s first-quarter core earnings
40
strengthen, as we do not foresee a com- of $1.86 a share beat our and the Wall
petitive challenge for the next several Street consensus’ respective estimates
years. But TSMC will need to spend of $1.46 and $1.68. The beat was driven 30
Bearish
aggressively on R&D and invest in ca- by stronger preprovision net revenue
pacity. In addition, as the world enters growth. Despite the stronger trends, 20
Ratio = 22
a new era of superpower competition, management left its FY23 guidance of
the company will need to reduce the $78 billion-$79 billion in revenue un- 10
concentration of its manufacturing changed, potentially leaving room for Bullish
operation in Taiwan by building facili- an upside surprise. Credit trends con- 0
ties outside its country and its region. tinue to normalize, and management A M J J A S O N D J F M A
As such, it might not demonstrate addressed the stickiness of its deposits. Ratio of Insiders Sales to Buys. Readings under 12:1 are Bullish. Those over 20:1 are Bearish. The total top 20 sales and buys are
much operating leverage over our fore- Notably, 50% of them are tied to the 234,665,599 and 10,751,137 respectively; Source: Thomson Reuters
cast horizon. However, we look for Treasury & Trade Solutions business,
TSMC’s revenue growth, primarily through which Citi provides a complex
driven by steady introductions of new set of treasury management services
technology nodes largely unaffected by across the globe, deeply entrenching conservatively expect $906 million in Agilysys
industry cyclicality, to remain strong the bank with clients and [fostering] overall revenue, 6.5% below the year- AGYS-Nasdaq
and support a 10%-15% earnings com- seasoned relationships (about 80% of earlier total. That said, we anticipate Outperform • Price $84.41 on April 19
pound annual growth rate over the clients have been with Citi for 15+ material top-line improvement as the by Oppenheimer
next few years. As such, we recom- years). Our FY23/24 EPS estimates year moves on. We see the company
mend TSMC as a core holding for in- rise modestly, to $5.87/$5.72 a share. delivering 37 cents a share in ad- We launch coverage with a $105 price
vestors who look to invest in semicon- We see the risk/reward ratio on Citi justed earnings per share in Q1/23, target. Agilysys is one of the few soft-
ductors, which we view as the stock skewed to the upside, given rela- versus 54 cents in Q1/22. But we an- ware vendors that provides modern
foundation of the expanding digital tively low investor expectations, a sub- ticipate around $62 million of free purpose-built solutions with an open
economy. Price target: $110. tangible book value valuation, and a cash flow, versus Q1/22’s $49 million. architecture targeted at the hospitality
CEO who appreciates the need to re- In December 2022, we argued that industry. We are unaware of any pure-
verse nearly 20 years of subpar share- XRAY shares, then below $31, were play hospitality software supplier
AT&T holder returns. Price objective: $56. mispriced on the low side. We pre- comparable to Agilysys in subscrip-
T-NYSE dicted that several headwinds experi- tion growth, margin (based on earn-
Buy • Price $19.70 on April 19 enced in 2022, including foreign-ex- ings before interest, taxes, deprecia-
by Edward Jones Dentsply Sirona change and supply-chain challenges, tion, and amortization), breadth of
XRAY-Nasdaq would likely improve in FY23 and technology, scale, and customer satis-
AT&T shares aren’t reflecting the value Outperform • Price $40.56 on April 18 beyond. The past months have only faction. And we expect Agilysys’ prof-
of the company’s businesses. We ex- by Barrington Research increased our bullish conviction. The itable growth to be sustainable be-
pect its wireless operations to grow market seems to agree, as XRAY cause of its leading technology vision,
steadily, as the company has improved Dentsply Sirona [a dental-supply and shares now trade north of $40. We low product penetration, high refer-
subscriber additions and retention and technology company] will report think additional upside remains; our enceability, bad legacy competition,
is investing in its 5G network. We think first-quarter results on May 3. We price target is $43. and strong management team.
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 45
Barron's 50-Stock Average 61 Dow Jones Per Share Values 58 Mutual Funds 55 Week In Stocks 58
DATA
Cash Track 55 Exchange Traded Portfolios 54 N.Y. Stock Exchange 45 Weekly Bond Statistics 60
Charting the Market 41 Federal Reserve Data Bank 60 Nasdaq National Market 49 Winners & Losers Stocks 43
Coming Earnings 59 Foreign Exchange 59 New Corporate Listings 58
Conference Call Calendar 60 Gold & Silver Prices 60 New Highs & Lows 61
Delta Tactical Sentiment 59 Gold Mining Index 60 NYSE Half-Hourly Volume 58
Distributions & Offerings 61 Indexes P/Es & Yields 58 Other Market Indexes 57
Dividend Boosts - Reductions 60 Initial Public Offerings 58 Pulse of the Economy 59
Dividend Ex-Payment Dates 60 Investor Sentiment Readings 58 Stock Splits - Special Dividends 60
DJ Averages 57 Key Foreign Market Indexes 53 Stock Volume 58
DJ U.S. Total Market Industry Groups 59 Market Lab 57 Trading Diary 57
Contact Us
Dow Jones Averages 57 Money Rates, U.S. & Foreign 59 Vital Signs 36 For queries, email us at
Statistics from April 17-21, 2023 memberservices@dowjones.com
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE LIST - NEW HIGHS - NEW LOWS
–52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div
High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt.
10.43 9.65 AltC Acqn ALCC ... cc 10.27 +0.15 ... 18.65 13.66 AppleHospREIT APLE 6.2 24 15.43 –0.21 .08 2722.60 1703.32 AutoZone AZO ... 22 2681.41 +43.09 ... 1.93 0.11 BirdGlobal BRDS ... dd .15 –0.03 ...
A 71.98 39.55 Alteryx AYX ... dd 52.13 –1.72 ... 149.42 88.09 AppliedIndlTechs AIT 1.0 18 138.65 +4.13 .35 256.17 153.07 Avalonbay AVB 3.8 21 173.33 +3.47 1.65 79.78 58.81 BlackHills BKH 3.8 16 65.42 +0.36 .625
56.86 33.75 AAR AIR ... 21 54.25 +0.12 ... 13.17 2.84 AlticeUSA ATUS ... 7 2.90 –0.16 ... 121.28 90.23 Aptargroup ATR 1.3 34 120.59 +1.39 .38 51.71 37.44 Avangrid AGR 4.3 18 40.82 +0.95 .44 79.78 53.85 BlackKnight BKI ... 19 55.75 –0.51 ...
35.54 23.97 ABB ABB 2.1 27 35.42 +0.28.7338 10.61 9.76 AltimarAcqnIIIA ATAQ ... 19 10.21 +0.07 ... 124.88 77.96 Aptiv APTV ... 54 105.29 –1.78 ... 31.99 19.32 AvanosMedical AVNS ... 29 30.97 +1.16 ... 10.61 9.88 BlackMountainA BMAC ... cc 10.44 +0.02 ...
57.03 40.35 Altria MO 8.1 14 46.15 +1.12 .94 45.72 28.74 Aramark ARMK 1.2 41 35.51 –0.20 .11 34.37 17.91 Avantor AVTR ... 21 20.15 –0.54 ... 10.36 9.64 BlackSpadeA BSAQ ... 18 10.25 +0.01 ...
54.00 37.68 ABMIndustries ABM 2.1 15 42.30 –0.89 .22
14.72 4.26 AltusPower AMPS ... 14 4.72 –0.03 ... 17.65 10.19 ArborRealty ABR 14.7 7 10.69 +0.37 .40 204.37 151.62 AveryDennison AVY 1.7 19 178.09 +0.15 .75 7.20 3.17 BlackBerry BB ... dd 4.23 –0.28 ...
7.88 4.27 ACCO Brands ACCO 6.2 dd 4.84 –0.25 .075
17.75 7.24 AmbacFin AMBC ... 1 15.60 +0.50 ... 33.77 19.25 ArcelorMittal MT 1.3 3 28.46 –1.24 .38 52.68 27.65 Avient AVNT 2.5 24 39.08 –1.23.2475 785.65 503.12 BlackRock BLK 2.9 21 680.94 –10.395.00
12.83 7.23 AcresCmclRlty ACR ... dd 9.23 –0.26 ...
3.24 2.40 Ambev ABEV 3.8 16 2.83 –0.11.1457 183.53 110.97 ArchResources ARCH .8 2 123.74 –6.42 2.86 45.29 35.72 Avista AVA 4.1 21 44.66 +1.42 .46 3.73 1.00 BlackSkyTech BKSY ... dd 1.36 –0.08 ...
13.35 1.85 ADC Therap ADCT ... dd 2.30 +0.12 ...
10.10 6.00 ADT ADT 2.0 39 7.02 +0.09 .035
13.61 10.42 Amcor AMCR 4.4 16 11.06 –0.04.1225 5.17 1.62 ArcherAviation ACHR ... dd 1.94 –0.20 ... 32.56 20.66 AxaltaCoating AXTA ... 36 31.40 +0.28 ... 123.18 71.72 Blackstone BX 4.9 38 89.45 +4.13 .82
97.99 73.28 Ameren AEE 2.8 22 89.96 +0.50 .63 98.28 70.02 ArcherDaniels ADM 2.2 10 80.50 –1.29 .45 51.46 33.15 AxosFinancial AX ... 9 37.71 +1.01 ... 31.98 16.61 BlackstoneMtg BXMT13.8 13 17.99 +0.73 .62
92.16 60.74 AECOM ACM .8 35 82.35 –0.37 .18
76.54 40.73 Ameresco AMRC ... 24 43.56 –2.24 ... 11.49 6.28 Archrock AROC 6.1 35 9.77 –0.38 .15 15.80 3.82 Azul AZUL ... dd 6.36 –0.69 ... 4.93 0.75 BlendLabs BLND ... dd .80 +0.01 ...
29.89 18.62 AES AES 2.8 dd 24.00 –0.86.1659
22.19 16.09 AmericaMovil AMX 1.6 7 21.50 +0.03.4414 31.24 16.33 Arconic ARNC ... dd 24.47 –1.25 ... 16.20 1.62 AzurePowerGlbl AZRE ... ... 2.60 +0.18 ... 48.76 23.65 BlockHR HRB 3.4 12 33.90 –0.45 .29
74.02 52.07 Aflac AFL 2.5 10 65.98 –0.23 .42
38.11 16.04 AmericanAssets AAT 7.4 26 17.94 +0.49 .33 9.04 6.23 ArcosDorados ARCO 2.4 13 7.83 +0.11 .04 110.44 51.34 Block SQ ... dd 63.48 –0.56 ...
145.53 88.55 AGCO AGCO .8 10 124.41 –1.46 .24 B
11.96 6.36 AmericanAxle AXL ... 13 7.14 –0.54 ... 65.80 43.52 Arcosa ACA .3 12 60.38 +0.47 .05 31.47 11.47 BloomEnergy BE ... dd 17.85 –0.40 ...
8.39 3.52 AG Mortgage MITT13.6 dd 5.72 +0.09 .18
17.09 9.46 AmerEagle AEO 3.0 22 13.48 –0.15 .10 36.13 15.70 ArcusBiosci RCUS ... dd 19.99 +2.45 ... 8.22 0.57 BlueApron APRN ... dd .61 +0.03 ...
4.28 0.31 a.k.a.Brands AKA ... dd .39 –0.02 ... 3.36 1.08 Bark BARK ... dd 1.13 –0.10 ...
48.37 28.05 AmerEquity AEL 1.0 3 37.15 +0.17 .36 7.97 3.52 ArdaghMetalPkg AMBP11.0 9 3.62 +0.02 .10 14.04 8.06 BlueOwlCapital OWL 4.8 dd 10.89 +0.10 .13
16.89 3.77 AMC Ent AMC ... dd 4.99 –0.13 ... 29.11 10.91 B&G Foods BGS 4.9 dd 15.58 +0.26 .19
185.55 130.65 AmerExpress AXP 1.5 17 163.78 +0.56 .60 19.41 5.24 ArdmoreShipping ASC 11.8 5 15.24 ... .45 34.58 16.24 BluegreenVac BVH 2.7 9 29.62 +0.86 .20
129.04 81.15 AMN Healthcare AMN ... 9 88.77 +2.07 ... 57.76 39.88 BCE BCE 5.9 21 47.59 +0.04.7237
150.98 113.85 AmericanFin AFG 2.1 11 120.85 +0.81 .63 10.39 9.78 AresAcqnA AAC ... 62 10.36 +0.01 ... 100.01 57.50 BlueLinx BXC ... 2 72.28 +3.25 ...
2555.30 6.60 AMTD Digital HKD ... ... 6.89 –0.45 ... 9.74 2.00 BEST BEST ... dd 2.96 +0.30 ...
43.13 28.79 AmHomes4Rent AMH 2.7 46 33.12 +0.70 .22 16.17 8.24 AresCommRealEst ACRE14.9 15 8.86 +0.20 .02 10.51 9.71 BluescapeOppsAcqn BOAC ... 25 10.00 +0.03 ...
25.80 1.44 AMTD IDEA AMTD ... 1 1.74 +0.02 ... 16.02 9.39 BGSF BGSF 6.0 14 10.01 –0.01 .15
64.88 45.66 AIG AIG 2.5 4 51.55 +0.11 .32 87.50 53.15 AresMgmt ARES 3.6 cc 86.60 +3.74 .77 221.33 113.02 Boeing BA ... dd 205.15 +3.44 ...
10.80 9.95 AP Acqn A APCA ... cc 10.56 –0.01 ... 71.52 46.92 BHP Group BHP 9.0 7 58.75 –2.83 1.80
31.59 13.35 AmRltyInv ARL ... 1 18.00 –2.59 ... 43.50 31.26 Argan AGX 2.5 17 39.86 +0.91 .25 85.17 55.14 BoiseCascade BCC .9 3 66.22 +0.85 .15
3.90 2.11 ARC Document ARC 6.5 12 3.07 ... .05 189.97 68.30 BILL BILL ... dd 79.41 +3.90 ...
100.51 71.22 AmerStWater AWR 1.7 43 91.19 –0.02.3975 45.26 19.00 ArgoGroup ARGO 4.2 dd 29.36 –0.18 .31 98.88 50.20 BootBarn BOOT ... 13 73.19 +0.48 ...
7.97 4.45 ASE Tech ASX 5.0 7 7.01 –0.35.4794 23.80 1.40 BitMining BTCM ... dd 2.81 –0.27 ...
104.46 7.00 AmerStratInvt NYC ... dd 12.88 +0.22 ... 23.58 6.96 ArisWater ARIS 5.1 cc 7.07 –0.81 .09 112.55 76.60 BoozAllen BAH 1.9 31 98.98 +1.99 .47
119.97 77.03 ASGN ASGN ... 15 78.89 +0.88 ... 80.41 51.45 BJ'sWholesale BJ ... 21 77.51 +3.79 ...
282.47 178.17 AmerTowerREIT AMT 2.9 53 204.14 –2.75 1.56 171.44 89.12 AristaNetworks ANET ... 36 155.87 –7.73 ... 3.90 0.69 BoqiiHolding BQ ... dd 1.69 +0.50 ...
21.53 14.46 AT&T T 6.1 dd 18.22 –1.71.2775 41.38 25.37 BP BP 3.6 dd 39.64 –0.94.3966
25.99 17.85 AmerVanguard AVD .6 22 20.14 –1.24 .03 3.69 2.53 ArlingtonAsset AAIC ... 27 2.60 –0.03 ... 51.14 31.14 BorgWarner BWA 1.4 12 48.98 +0.25 .17
43.32 20.52 ATI ATI ... 44 38.48 +0.74 ... 166.51 122.77 AmerWaterWorks AWK 1.7 33 150.93 +1.23 .655 8.11 2.93 ArloTech ARLO ... dd 6.71 +0.30 ... 26.08 6.02 BP Prudhoe BPT 47.6 2 7.34 –0.56.2974
2.26 0.22 ATI PhysTherapy ATIP ... dd .27 –0.02 ... 18.65 4.79 BRC BRCC ... dd 5.05 –0.17 ... 8.13 2.45 BorrDrilling BORR ... dd 6.96 –0.67 ...
5.43 2.00 AmericanWell AMWL ... dd 2.12 +0.05 ... 14.73 10.04 ArmadaHoffler AHH 6.5 16 11.78 +0.03 .19 422.75 287.00 BostonBeer SAM ... 59 322.16 –0.97 ...
19.79 12.61 A10Networks ATEN 1.7 24 14.40 –0.44 .06 32.99 21.49 AmericoldRealty COLD 3.0 dd 29.73 +1.40 .22 7.98 4.38 ArmourResREIT ARR 18.5 dd 5.20 +0.07 .08 3.42 1.06 BRF BRFS ... dd 1.20 –0.09 ...
10.95 9.96 AxiosSustGrwA AXAC ... dd 10.44 +0.03 ... 25.67 18.07 BRT Apartments BRT 5.4 7 18.57 –0.05 .25 29.40 18.68 BostonOmaha BOC ... 88 21.01 –0.30 ...
357.46 219.99 Ameriprise AMP 1.6 14 314.10 +4.67 1.25 94.94 66.06 ArmstrongWorld AWI 1.4 17 72.01 +2.14 .254 128.31 46.18 BostonProps BXP 7.5 10 52.12 +1.16 .98
0.21 0.04 AxiosSustGrwRt AXAC.RT ... ... .18 ... ... 174.63 135.14 AmerisourceBrgn ABC 1.2 20 166.73 –0.40 .485 134.56 89.38 ArrowElec ARW ... 5 111.98 –7.18 ... 64.95 45.78 BWX Tech BWXT 1.4 25 63.93 –0.13 .23
63.99 48.32 AXIS Capital AXS 3.1 25 56.05 +0.79 .44 8.66 3.89 Babcock&Wilcox BW ... dd 6.16 +0.14 ... 53.21 34.98 BostonSci BSX ... cc 51.11 –0.66 ...
148.06 106.17 Ametek AME .7 27 137.58 –0.77 .25 40.68 25.67 ArtisanPtrsAsset APAM 7.0 12 35.29 +0.03 .35 17.45 8.19 Bowlero BOWL ... dd 15.04 +0.34 ...
30.26 15.12 AZEK AZEK ... cc 26.70 +1.41 ... 4.08 1.24 AmnealPharm AMRX ... dd 1.63 +0.27 ... 23.43 9.64 Artivion AORT ... dd 14.49 +1.03 ... 87.50 4.61 Babylon BBLN ... dd 7.17 –1.00 ...
49.33 30.21 AZZ AZZ 1.7 cc 39.70 –0.10 .17 138.12 73.20 BadgerMeter BMI .7 56 135.64 +14.32 .225 34.98 22.31 Box BOX ... cc 27.10 –0.26 ...
5.69 2.15 Ampco-Pitt AP ... 24 3.03 +0.11 ... 30.80 11.32 Asana ASAN ... dd 18.21 –0.11 ... 68.33 46.10 BoydGaming BYD .9 12 68.17 +2.88 .16
21.80 7.65 Aaron's AAN 4.9 dd 10.15 –0.44 .125 82.86 61.67 Amphenol APH 1.1 25 76.84 –1.30 .21 253.67 138.88 AsburyAutomotive ABG ... 5 203.93 –4.34 ... 5.13 1.08 Bakkt BKKT ... dd 1.38 –0.15 ...
123.18 93.25 AbbottLabs ABT 1.8 34 111.66 +7.70 .51 88.44 46.00 Ball BALL 1.5 23 52.09 +2.06 .20 56.35 40.52 Brady BRC 1.8 17 52.45 +0.17 .23
10.38 5.49 AmplifyEnergy AMPY ... 5 6.92 –0.63 ... 12.09 2.61 AshfordHosp AHT ... dd 3.36 +0.24 ... 6.64 3.41 BraemarHtls BHR 5.3 dd 3.79 +0.02 .05
168.11 134.09 AbbVie ABBV 3.6 24 162.41 +0.82 1.48 26.01 4.15 AmpriusTech AMPX ... dd 9.50 +0.57 ... 114.36 91.66 Ashland ASH 1.3 dd 102.49 –0.90 .335 31.50 17.51 Bally's BALY ... dd 18.54 +0.26 ...
36.56 14.02 Abercrombie&Fitch ANF ... cc 24.24 –1.32 ... 19.26 11.54 BancCalifornia BANC 3.3 8 11.99 +0.15 .10 12.89 3.94 BrandywineRealty BDN 19.1 16 3.98 –0.07 .19
16.72 10.26 Amrep AXR ... 3 14.98 +0.08 ... 25.15 5.41 AspenAerogels ASPN ... dd 5.51 –0.41 ... 7.18 4.11 BrasilAgro LND 20.1 17 4.84 –0.22.6018
21.90 12.28 AcadiaRealty AKR 5.4 dd 13.40 +0.38 .18 10.58 9.91 AndrettiAcqnA WNNR ... cc 10.51 ... ... 33.00 16.88 AssetMarkFin AMK ... 23 32.27 +0.63 ... 5.29 2.03 BancoBBVA BBAR .0 3 4.46 –0.44.0162
12.58 7.26 AccelEnt ACEL ... 11 9.08 +0.06 ... 7.93 3.93 BancoBilbaoViz BBVA 5.0 7 7.39 –0.04.3333 19.64 6.26 Braskem BAK ... dd 7.33 –1.10 ...
16.74 4.43 AngelOakMtgREIT AOMR16.5 dd 7.76 –0.27 .32 25.50 17.00 AssociatedBanc ASB 4.7 7 17.90 –0.12 .21 58.25 26.21 BreadFinancial BFH 3.0 6 28.18 +0.47 .21
323.84 242.80 Accenture ACN 1.6 25 276.33 –2.92 1.12 28.13 11.94 AngloGoldAsh AU 1.7 38 26.43 –1.18 .177 44.50 31.01 AssocCapital AC .5 dd 37.30 +0.38 .10 3.55 2.12 BancoBradesco BBDO 5.6 6 2.35 –0.19.0034
10.31 9.63 AcropolisInfrA ACRO ... cc 10.14 ... ... 22.56 15.64 BancodeChile BCH 8.1 6 20.00 +0.152.1466 19.62 9.94 BridgeInvt BRDG 6.5 11 10.48 –0.56 .17
67.09 44.51 AB InBev BUD .9 22 65.52 +0.96.8245 190.72 104.49 Assurant AIZ 2.4 24 117.25 +1.14 .70 2.40 0.16 BrightHealth BHG ... dd .17 –0.01 ...
202.90 142.71 AcuityBrands AYI .3 14 157.40 –0.35 .13 27.96 15.11 AnnalyCap NLY 13.4 4 19.35 +0.15 .65 67.13 45.21 AssuredGuaranty AGO 2.1 28 53.88 –0.25 .28 19.49 12.58 Bladex BLX 5.4 ... 18.53 +0.53 .25
54.11 37.46 Acushnet GOLF 1.5 19 51.27 +2.07 .195 23.15 9.72 BancoMacro BMA 3.8 4 18.07 –2.69.0729 133.32 54.19 BrightHorizons BFAM ... 56 76.43 –0.90 ...
23.91 8.39 AnnovisBio ANVS ... dd 15.81 +0.78 ... 26.33 1.69 Atento ATTO ... dd 1.94 +0.14 ... 4.48 2.24 BrightScholar BEDU ... ... 2.30 –0.03 ...
12.46 6.95 Adecoagro AGRO 3.9 8 8.04 –0.94.1602 11.61 8.56 AnteroMidstream AM 8.7 15 10.30 –0.32 .225 10.30 9.76 AthenaTechII A ATEK ... cc 10.28 –0.01 ... 7.35 4.76 BancSanBrasil BSBR 5.0 ... 5.29 –0.35.0816
47.50 27.15 Adient ADNT ... dd 38.58 –0.20 ... 20.69 13.37 BcoSantChile BSAC 5.3 8 17.75 –0.971.2511 26.88 14.73 BrightSphere BSIG .2 10 23.56 +0.15 .01
48.80 20.65 AnteroResources AR ... 4 22.51 –1.38 ... 154.86 70.50 Atkore ATKR ... 6 126.48 –5.22 ... 9.45 5.40 BrightSpire BRSP13.9 17 5.77 +0.25 .20
44.40 27.85 AdtalemGlbEduc ATGE ... dd 40.64 +0.74 ... 13.69 4.33 AnywhereRealEst HOUS ... dd 5.99 +0.03 ... 41.04 30.26 AtlUnionBkshs AUB 3.7 11 32.40 –0.49 .30 7.11 4.52 BcoSantMex BSMX 8.8 7 6.24 –0.45.3272
227.74 109.05 AdvanceAuto AAP 4.7 16 128.21 +4.61 1.50 4.09 2.26 BancoSantander SAN 2.1 7 3.85 –0.07.0631 13.80 5.17 BrightView BV ... 63 5.30 –0.09 ...
334.10 246.21 Aon AON .7 28 333.60 +9.12 .615 18.92 15.06 AtlasEnergySolns AESI ... ... 18.18 –0.06 ... 42.12 21.47 BrinkerIntl EAT ... 24 39.17 +1.87 ...
153.36 75.02 AdvDrainageSys WMS .6 15 84.19 +2.73 .12 55.10 32.51 AptIncmREIT AIRC 5.0 6 35.74 +0.58 .45 121.92 97.71 AtmosEnergy ATO 2.6 20 115.38 +2.34 .74 45.98 21.55 BanColombia CIB 4.0 8 27.78 –1.20.7332
50.23 30.69 AdvanSix ASIX 1.5 7 38.76 –1.06 .145 38.85 26.32 BankofAmerica BAC 2.9 9 29.87 +0.35 .22 70.05 48.38 Brink's BCO 1.2 18 65.13 +0.05 .20
9.79 5.22 ApartmtInv AIV 20.7 17 7.93 +0.33 .02 3.55 1.52 ATRenew RERE ... dd 2.53 –0.10 ... 81.44 65.28 BristolMyers BMY 3.2 24 70.49 +0.04 .57
5.85 3.76 Aegon AEG 4.6 dd 4.44 –0.09.1288 24.49 13.09 APi Group APG ... cc 21.73 +0.48 ... 2.87 0.09 Audacy AUD ... dd .14 +0.02 ... 38.31 25.02 BankofButterfield NTB 6.9 6 25.65 +0.13 .44
5.97 1.85 Aenza AENZ ... dd 2.27 –0.05 ... 85.45 34.71 BankofHawaii BOH 5.7 9 48.80 –0.69 .70 0.17 0.09 BristolMyersRt CELG.RT ... ... .11 ... ...
13.73 7.91 ApolloComRlEst ARI 14.8 6 9.48 +0.30 .35 40.89 23.66 Autohome ATHM 1.9 14 29.12 –0.68 .53 32.90 20.20 Bristow VTOL ... 71 22.41 –0.55 ...
66.85 37.20 AerCap AER ... dd 55.82 +0.42 ... 74.63 45.62 ApolloGlbMgmt APO 2.5 dd 63.54 –1.47 .40 98.00 65.74 Autoliv ALV 3.0 18 87.09 –4.78 .66 115.27 81.57 BankofMontreal BMO 3.7 7 91.25 +0.291.0541
56.80 36.44 AerojetRocket AJRD ... 63 56.53 +0.11 ... 52.26 36.22 BankNY Mellon BK 3.4 14 44.05 –2.31 .37 45.28 34.44 BritishAmTob BTI 7.7 10 36.26 +1.07.7006
10.29 9.76 ApolloStratII A APGB ... 34 10.28 +0.03 ... 158.30 94.92 AutoNation AN ... 5 133.37 –1.53 ... 26.58 17.62 BrixmorProp BRX 5.0 18 20.69 +0.34 .26
4.64 0.92 AevaTech AEVA ... dd 1.02 –0.03 ... 68.59 45.26 BankNovaScotia BNS 6.0 9 50.36 –0.86.7602
180.63 108.12 AffiliatedMgrs AMG .0 5 142.84 +1.23 .01 42.17 20.03 BankUnited BKU 5.1 6 21.21 +0.68 .27 8.34 3.52 BroadmarkRealty BRMK 8.8 dd 4.77 +0.08 .035
10.40 9.76 AfricanGoldA AGAC ... 50 10.34 +0.04 ... 10.95 9.89 BanyanAcqnA BYN ... 21 10.47 +0.07 ... 183.33 131.35 BroadridgeFinl BR 2.0 32 143.69 –1.49 .725
10.25 9.63 AfterNextA AFTR ... 40 10.24 ... ... 9.44 5.89 Barclays BCS 4.5 ... 7.62 –0.22 .104 22.72 14.98 Broadstone BNL 6.9 22 16.02 +0.06 .275
Industrials 11:00
11:30
33901.70
33902.68
33842.12
33886.63
33889.48
33877.98
33849.59
33802.41
33700.91
33739.65
NYSE Amer Off
NASD Up
4,602 5,194 7,058 4,633 6,531
3,360,029 2,344,312 2,638,918 1,212,330 2,713,174
34925 12:00 33882.58 33901.92 33889.37 33803.07 33764.90 NASD Off 1,416,615 2,455,144 2,261,667 3,321,299 2,112,117
12:30 33885.39 33975.79 33889.17 33821.77 33748.30 NYSE Arca UP 146,958 135,752 69,565 75,649 99,537
Week's NYSE Arca Off 93,769 88,964 144,772 162,685 142,401
Components Change 1:00 33861.34 33963.83 33903.02 33856.23 33755.39
1:30 33869.84 33958.49 33911.89 33868.68 33754.68 % (QCHA) +.52 –.15 –.11 –.42 –.16
3M -1.29 % (QACH) –.04 +.40 –.43 –.48 –2.01
2:00 33821.63 33984.55 33925.09 33844.71 33797.18
American Express 0.56 34150 2:30 33845.67 34004.43 33906.62 33822.37 33801.37
% (QCHAQ) +1.25 …. +.14 –.65 ….
Amgen -6.14 3:00 33916.13 33980.99 33898.98 33752.26 33785.42 Market Advance/Decline Totals
Apple -0.19 3:30 33956.49 33981.56 33883.72 33699.61 33785.40 NYSE NYSE
Boeing 3.44 Weekly Comp. NYSE Amer Nasdaq Arca
Close 33987.18 33976.63 33897.01 33786.62 33808.96
Total Issues 3,222 345 5,144 1,974
Caterpillar -3.41 33375 High (t) 34140.15 34197.03 34135.17 34041.38 34021.12 Advances 1,466 106 2,297 703
Chevron -3.32 Low (t) 33677.41 33680.21 33644.16 33495.77 33554.16 Declines 1,702 232 2,706 1,253
Cisco Systems -3.51 High (a) 33991.23 34018.62 33957.98 33875.39 33858.83 Unchanged 54 7 141 18
Coca-Cola 1.00 Low (a) 33796.91 33791.89 33814.65 33677.74 33688.57 New Highs 169 13 231 105
Disney -0.33 Change +100.71 –10.55 –79.62 –110.39 +22.34 New Lows 95 18 452 23
Dow -1.63 32600 Week ended last Friday compared to previous Friday
Goldman Sachs 4.74 Theoretical (t): High 34197.03 Low 33495.77
Home Depot 7.85 Actual (a): High 34018.62 Low 33677.74 NYSE Composite Daily Breadth
Honeywell International -0.47 Daily Apr 17 18 19 20 21
IBM -2.41 31825 Issues Traded 3,131 3,125 3,106 3,082 3,100
Intel -1.59 Dow Jones 20 Transport (divisor: 0.16343894576034) Advances 1,835 1,374 1,399 1,102 1,350
Johnson & Johnson -3.15 Declines 1,160 1,617 1,580 1,857 1,612
Open (t) 14299.71 14368.73 14241.16 14369.04 14492.69 Unchanged 136 134 127 123 138
JPMorgan Chase 1.81 Open (a) 14260.03 14338.08 14262.57 14395.96 14463.50 New Highs 56 66 54 70 54
McDonald's 3.08
Merck 0.06 31050 10:00 14335.03 14438.66 14308.62 14497.28 14465.74 New Lows 39 34 33 34 39
10:30 14305.54 14330.95 14263.46 14549.96 14477.15 Blocks - primary 3,829 3,616 3,854 4,290 4,409
Microsoft -0.38 Total (000) - primary 804,776 770,128 758,794 832,743 897,262
11:00 14251.22 14328.38 14311.28 14565.59 14435.70
Nike Cl B -0.42 Total (000) 3,611,185 3,536,647 3,572,564 3,772,084 3,611,754
11:30 14248.60 14290.50 14305.73 14566.51 14434.74
Procter & Gamble 5.07
12:00 14231.16 14305.97 14285.95 14557.11 14409.84 NYSE American Composite
Salesforce 4.38 30275 12:30 14231.71 14310.15 14309.53 14520.36 14392.41 Daily Apr 17 18 19 20 21
Travelers Cos 11.13
1:00 14258.16 14311.01 14333.01 14518.67 14324.94 Issues Traded 318 313 316 316 308
UnitedHealth Group -27.97
1:30 14257.50 14302.37 14369.64 14511.81 14360.70 Advances 145 132 112 111 104
Verizon Communications -1.90
2:00 14223.19 14299.67 14381.03 14498.25 14402.26 Declines 158 160 183 184 185
Visa Cl A 0.03
Walgreens Boots Alliance -0.05 29500 2:30 14211.03 14280.39 14395.47 14484.57 14439.52 Unchanged 15 21 21 21 19
3:00 14248.41 14281.60 14418.23 14460.02 14392.10 New Highs 2 5 2 4 1
Walmart 3.25 November December January February March April New Lows 6 8 5 6 15
3:30 14303.69 14297.46 14433.29 14422.08 14396.17
Blocks - primary 82 109 106 87 94
Close 14319.29 14308.89 14434.87 14446.68 14413.58
Total (000) - primary 7,853 10,248 9,219 7,602 8,901
High (t) 14405.41 14504.47 14460.51 14648.13 14619.43 Total (000) 106,253 161,082 121,943 104,846 114,266
Transportation Low (t)
High (a)
14161.83 14196.71 14191.08 14282.86
14341.40 14478.59 14437.35 14578.06
14283.93
14539.17 Nasdaq
16025 Low (a) 14197.18 14252.44 14235.22 14357.29 14317.41 Daily Apr 17 18 19 20 21
Week's Change +72.69 –10.40 +125.98 +11.81 –33.10 Issues Traded 4,669 4,660 4,655 4,632 4,618
Components Change Advances 2,751 1,954 2,104 1,580 2,092
15600 Theoretical (t): High 14648.13 Low 14161.83 Declines 1,712 2,512 2,324 2,832 2,303
Alaska Air Group 2.50 Actual (a): High 14578.06 Low 14197.18 Unchanged 206 194 227 220 223
American Airlines Group 0.61 New Highs 80 74 65 58 68
Avis Budget Group -1.11
15175 New Lows 170 152 140 150 201
CH Robinson Worldwide 1.82 Dow Jones 15 Utilities (divisor: 1.27924906167720) Blocks - primary 36,507 36,897 46,208 32,297 44,059
CSX 1.36 14750 Total (000) 4,823,182 4,851,816 4,972,705 4,590,533 4,868,059
Open (t) 959.65 962.16 962.10 968.33 973.76
Delta Air 0.56 NYSE Arca Composite
Open (a) 958.23 962.67 960.24 967.99 972.00
Expeditors Intl of Wash -0.43 Daily Apr 17 18 19 20 21
FedEx -0.25 14325 10:00 962.38 961.08 963.13 968.21 971.21
10:30 958.58 964.37 967.96 963.83 966.59 Issues Traded 1,747 1,738 1,727 1,730 1,728
JB Hunt Transport -0.35 Advances 1,030 1,107 441 518 859
11:00 962.05 961.13 969.53 963.56 964.22
JetBlue Airways 0.13 13900 11:30 961.85 956.69 966.63 967.68 968.31
Declines 692 604 1,255 1,193 829
Kirby Corp -1.36 Unchanged 25 27 31 19 40
Landstar System 1.45 12:00 959.11 956.84 966.01 964.43 965.74 New Highs 9 29 17 10 40
Matson 2.36 13475 12:30 960.16 957.34 965.41 963.46 966.70 New Lows 5 5 4 8 12
Norfolk Southern 4.02 1:00 959.87 958.58 964.87 966.47 968.06 Blocks - primary 1,302 1,136 1,064 1,129 1,219
Old Dominion Freight 10.18 1:30 959.74 957.45 965.82 965.60 968.86 Total (000) - primary 252,546 228,189 221,794 242,675 244,994
13050 2:00 958.11 956.84 964.69 964.92 968.67 Total (000) 1,435,267 1,267,699 1,279,059 1,354,526 1,300,611
Ryder System -0.12
Southwest Airlines 0.48 2:30 955.77 957.77 965.94 965.31 970.60
12625 3:00 959.33 957.51 966.03 962.77 969.56
Union Pacific
United Airlines
0.32
2.78 3:30
Close
960.56
963.07
958.73
958.99
966.39
966.75
962.11
966.78
968.38
969.34
Other Market Indexes
United Parcel Service B 2.34
12200 High (t) 965.86 966.45 970.72 971.72 976.41
Daily 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 4/21
November December January February March April Low (t) 953.09 953.66 960.03 959.27 963.88 NYSE Amer Comp 4341.71 4312.48 4282.99 4271.64 4254.31
High (a) 963.44 964.94 969.97 969.78 975.76 AmMajorMkt 3112.17 3120.54 3116.91 3108.88 3112.98
Selected IPOs
U.S. Dollar Index vs Euro and Yen Per Share Values of Stocks Ticker Initial Offer Price IPO Date Recent Price %Chg
Jayud Global Logistics JYD 4.00 4/21 5.04 26.0%
Greener Pastures: With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target level, Fed officials sounded ready for a
springtime rate hike. That boosted the dollar against the six-currency basket that underlies the ICE U.S. In the Dow Jones Averages U Power
U.S. GoldMining
Wang & Lee Group
UCAR
USGO
WLGS
6.00
10.00
5.00
4/20
4/20
4/20
7.83
9.15
3.14
30.5%
-8.5%
-37.2%
Dollar Index, which rose 0.2% on the week. This is a list of the Dow Jones trailing 52-week diluted share Top KingWin TCJH 4.00 4/18 3.60 -10.0%
earnings, dividends and book values as reported by the company.
20 Bolded numbers indicate new values. Sources Barron's Stats and Trio Petroleum TPET 3.00 4/18 2.40 -20.0%
FactSet.
Industrial Stocks
15
10
Book Book
Investor Sentiment Readings New Listings
Earns Divs. Value Earns Divs. Value
DXY (101.72)
s NYSE
Am Exp 9.51 2.16 29.14 Johnson&John 4.78 4.52 28.16 High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market
5 Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Amgen 12.11 7.95 12.00 JPMorgChase 13.55 4.00 88.07 bottoms.
Apple 5.89 0.92 3.84 McDonalds 8.35 5.80 (6.17) Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
0 Last Week 2 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago
Boeing (8.29) Suspended (25.47) Merck Co 5.71 2.84 15.11 NYSE American
Caterpillar 12.65 4.80 30.76 Microsoft 9.00 2.60 22.31 Consensus Index
-5 Chevron Corp 18.28 5.77 72.06 Nike Inc 3.47 1.29 9.73 Trio Petroleum (TPET)
s s Cisco Sys 2.73 1.53 9.79 Proc Gam 5.11 3.6806 19.11 Consensus Bullish Sentiment 59% 55% 53% Nasdaq
-10 Coca Cola 2.20 1.78 5.32 3M Co 10.15 5.97 26.31
EURO in $ YEN in $ Disney Walt 1.82 0.00 48.71 Salesforce.com 0.21 0.00 58.78 AAII Index Jayud Global Logistics (JYD)
-15 Dow 6.24 2.80 24.71 Travelers Cos 11.73 3.72 119.76 Top KingWin (TCJH)
Goldman Sachs 28.09 9.50 297.50 UnitedHealthGrp 21.87 6.40 76.26 Bullish 27.2% 26.1% 33.3%
U Power (UCAR)
-20 Home Depot 16.68 7.79 (1.64) Verizon 5.06 2.5975 19.48
Bearish 35.1 34.5 35.0 U.S. GoldMining (USGO)
Honeywell 7.27 4.00 27.12 Visa 7.15 1.575 16.32
Wang & Lee Group (WLGS)
M J J A S O N D J F M A IBM 7.15 6.59 21.05 Walgreens (3.65) 1.9175 27.06 Neutral 37.7 39.5 31.6
Intel 1.96 1.46 23.44 Wal-mart 4.28 2.25 30.15
Source: Tullett Prebon
Transportation Stocks
Market Vane
Wednesday
Viking Therapeutics
Merck & Co
VKTX
MRK
155,000 3,169,750 4/13/23
134,055 15,248,756 4/13/23
Lian, Brian
Chattopadhyay, Sanat O
O
AES Corp. (0.34) 0.6399 2.96 Exelon 2.19 1.3725 35.13
quotient. The numerator in the index is the number of
advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks.
As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the
Changes
Am Elec 4.51 3.15 44.49 FirstEnergy 0.57 1.56 15.21 NYSE
Salesforce CRM 100,000 19,600,000 4/11/23 Taylor, Bret FO composite volume of advancing stocks divided by the
$43.0 bil 5-year 3.649 3.665 AmericanWaterWorks 4.51 2.5675 40.18 NextEra Energy 2.09 1.7425 18.95 composite volume of declining stocks. Canadian Pacific Kansas City
Wells Fargo & Co WFC 91,383 3,516,874 4/17/23 Owens, Lester O (CP), formerly Canadian Pacific
Atmos Energy 5.71 2.84 59.71 Xcel Energy 3.06 1.9825 28.70 Daily 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 4/21 Railway
Thursday Core & Main CNM 80,000 1,891,200 4/13/23 Leclair, Stephen CEO Con Ed 4.68 3.18 56.60 Pub Sv Ent 3.40 2.19 28.65
DominionEnergy 1.09 2.67 31.51 Sempra Energy 6.62 4.625 79.17
NYSE American
Apple AAPL 77,817 12,888,830 4/4/23 Williams, Jeffrey O NYSE .87 .78 1.18 1.68 1.19
$35.0 bil 7-year 3.612 3.626 Duke Energy 3.32 4.00 61.55 Southn Co. 1.36 2.72 25.36 None
Apple AAPL 69,996 11,588,538 4/13/23 Maestri, Luca D NYSE American 1.49 .58 1.81 .77 1.20
Edison Int'l 1.61 2.875 36.57 Nasdaq
* As of Friday afternoon. Ptc Therapeutics PTCT 61,923 3,183,835 4/17/23 Boulding, Mark O Nasdaq .68 .81 .78 1.53 .71 None
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 59
Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Industry Groups CBOE Put / Call Ratio Foreign Exchange
Foreign
Currency
Foreign
Currency
U.S. $ in
Foreign
U.S. $ in
Foreign
Bullish
New housing starts, (thous. units) Mar 1,420 r1,432 1,716 –17.25 Thermo Fisher Scientific (Q1) 5.03 7.25 3 months 5.20 5.08 1.38
Domestic crude oil, (thous. bbls) Comm. (Excl. Lease Stck) Apr 14 465,968 470,549 413,733 12.63 6 months 5.23 5.15 2.05
Gasoline, (thous. bbls) Apr 14 223,544 222,245 232,378 –3.80 Other Indicators TH Libor Interbank Rate
Orders Citi Research Panic–Euphoria Reading Apr 21 –0.16 –0.27 0.17 …. Altria (Q1) 1.19 1.12
Current Sentiment 1 month 5.02 4.96 0.70
No Activity for this Week Index of coincident indicators h Mar 110.2 r110.0 108.4 1.66 Amazon (Q1) 0.21 -0.38 3 months 5.26 5.26 1.21
Amgen (Q1) 3.87 4.25
54.1%
Index of lagging indicators h Mar 118.3 118.5 111.2 6.38 6 months 5.43 5.31 1.82
Trade Boston Beer (Q1) -0.27 -0.16 12 months 5.41 5.27 2.61
Index of leading indicators h Mar 108.4 r109.7 119.5 –9.29
No Activity for this Week Bristol Myers Squibb (Q1) 1.97 1.96
Coincident to lagging ratio h Mar 0.93 0.93 0.97 –4.12 Foreign Prime Rates
Caterpillar (Q1) 3.78 2.88
Last Week a-1997 equals 100. b-1982-84 equals 100. c-1982 equals 100. f-1996 equals 100. h- CenterPoint Energy (Q1) 0.49 0.47
benchmark revision, 2016 equals 100. r-Revised. Canada 6.70 6.70 3.20
DTE Energy (Q1) 1.59 2.31 Germany 3.50 3.50 0.00
50.7%
FirstEnergy (Q1) 0.63 0.51 Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Gilead Sciences (Q1) 1.54 2.12 Switzerland 2.00 2.00 0.00
Britain 4.25 4.25 0.75
Intel (Q1) -0.16 0.87
2 Weeks ago American Debt and Deficits Adjustable Mortgage Rates Mastercard (Q1)
Merck (Q1)
2.71
1.36
2.76
2.14
Other Money Rates
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
Northrop Grumman (Q1) 5.10 6.10 30-Year Fixed Conv 5.98 5.70 4.79
46.9%
Latest Preceding Year Ago Yr over Yr Apr 21 Apr 14 Yr. Ago YOY % Chg Bank money market-z 0.32 0.32 0.07
SouthWest Airlines (Q1) -0.23 -0.32
Report Report Report % Chg Interest Checking-z 0.06 0.06 0.04
Southern (Q1) 0.77 0.97
1 Year Treas Bills 4.68 4.53 1.81 158.56 6-Month Certif-z 1.19 1.19 0.15
Valero Energy (Q1) 6.81 2.31 12-Month Certif-z 1.66 1.66 0.22
Federal Budget Deficit (bil. $)-a 1,330FY'25 1,201FY'24 1,154FY'23 …. 2 Year Treas Notes 4.00 3.88 2.43 64.61
3 Weeks ago 30 Month Accounts-z 1.31 1.31 0.29
Budget Surplus/Deficit (bil. $)-b, March –378.08 –262.43 –192.63 96.27 3 Year Treas Notes 3.74 3.64 2.64 41.67 F 5-Year Certificates-z 1.22 1.22 0.39
Trade Deficit (bil. $, sa)-c, February –70.54 r-68.66 –87.25 -19.15 5 Year Treas Notes 3.53 3.43 2.73 29.30 Charter Communications (Q1) 7.48 6.90
Current Market Exposure: U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
100% Equities, 0% Bonds, 0% Treasury Gross Public Debt. (bil. $)-d 31,456.6 31,456.9 30,409.0 3.45 10 Year Treas Notes 3.44 3.35 2.76 24.64 Chevron (Q1) 3.41 3.36
Cash Treasury Statutory Debt Limit (bil. $)-d 31,381.5 31,381.5 …. …. Exxon Mobil (Q1) 2.62 2.07 Long-Term (5yrs+) 2.10 2.10 0.10
20 Year Treas Bds 3.78 3.71 3.02 25.17
Source: Delta Investment Consumer Installment Debt (bil. $)-e, February 4,820.6 r4,805.3 4,486.6 7.44 (Earnings are diluted and report dates are tentative. All fore-
FHFA PMMS+ Mar 6.32 6.32 3.44 83.72 c-Annualized yields, adjusted for constant maturity, reported by the Federal
Management casts and historical numbers exclude extraordinary items by Reserve on a weekly average basis. Sources: Tullett Prebon information, Ltd.
www.deltaim.com, (415) Sources: a-Office of Management and Budget, b-Monthly Treasury Statement, c-Monthly Commerce Dept. accounting definitions.) Factset. z-Bankrate.com.
Fed annualized yields adjusted for constant maturity.
249-6337 Report, d-Daily Treasury Statement, e-Monthly Federal Reserve Release. Source: FactSet
60 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
-10 Bond Buyer Municipal Bond Index Stock Splits/Dividends Special Dividends Oracle
Quest Diagnostics
.40
.71
Tuesday (April 25)
First Bancorp NC
Micron Technology
.22
.115
(Index of 40 actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues Record Ex-Div Pay Record Ex-Div Pay SK Telecom ADR .712
are changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Amount Date Date Date Company Name-Ticker Symbol (Exchange) Amount Date Date Date Wednesday (April 26)
market. Source: The Bond Buyer Tuesday (April 25)
VanEck Semiconductor-SMH (Nasdaq)2-for-1 5-03 5-05 5-04 Cisco Systems .39
-20 4.41 4.27 4.13 Flexible Solutions-FSI (NYSE AMER ) 0.05 4-28 4-27 5-16 American Financial Group .63 Comcast Cl A .29
Griffon-GFF (NYSE) 2.00 5-09 5-08 5-19 Dollar General .59 HarborOne Bancorp .075
Stock/Bond Yield Gap-s
(Difference between yield on highest-grade corporate bonds and
Conference Call Calendar Spirit Airlines-SAVE (NYSE) 0.10 4-24 4-21 4-28
Ellington Financial
General Electric
.15
.08
InterDigital
Marvell Technology
.35
.06
-30 yield on stocks on the DJIA.) Ingredion .71
NetApp .50
-2.29 -2.48 -1.51 Earnings- Hess April 26 10:00AM Q1 John Wiley & Sons A .347 Thursday (April 27)
Related Hilton Worldwide April 26 10:00AM Q1 John Wiley & Sons B .347 Johnson Outdoors Cl A .31
Yield on DJ Equal Weight US Corp Bond Idx: Company Date Time Period
-40 Honeywell International April 27 8:30AM Q1 MSC Industrial Direct .79 Village Super Market A .25
Corp Bonds, (y) 5.25 5.17 4.29 Humana April 26 9:00AM Q1 TIM ADR .244
A O Smith April 27 10:00AM Q1 Friday (April 28)
Barron's Gold Mining Index (936.20) IDEX April 27 10:30AM Q1
v-Week ended Thursday. y-Yield to maturity, week ended Thursday. z- Abbvie April 27 9:00AM Q1 Wednesday (April 26) Amdocs .435
Source: Refinitiv.*Barclays T-Bond Index discontinued by firm. Intel April 27 5:00PM Q1 Camden National .42
Aflac April 27 8:00AM Q1
-50 Alexandria Real Estate Equities April 25 3:00PM Q1
International Paper April 27 10:00AM Q1 Agilent Technologies .225 ChampionX .085
Interpublic Group of Companies April 27 8:30AM Q1 Gap Inc .15 City Holding Co. .65
M J J A S O N D J F M A Petroleo Brasileiro ADR 1.102 Allegion PLC April 26 8:00AM Q1
Invesco Ltd April 25 9:00AM Q1 Thor Industries .45 Consolidated Water .085
Week’s Ex- Petroleo Brasileiro ADR A 1.102
Sendas Distribuidora ADR .051
Alphabet
Altria
April 25
April 27
5:00PM
9:00AM
Q1
Q1
Iqvia
Keurig Dr Pepper
April 27
April 27
9:00AM
8:00AM
Q1
Q1
Winnebago Industries
Thursday (April 27)
.27 Ensign Group
First Busey
HealthStream
.058
.24
.025
Amazon.com April 27 5:30PM Q1
Dividend Saturday (April 29)
NONE
American Airlines
American Tower
April 27
April 26
8:30AM
8:30AM
Q1
Q1
Kimco Realty
Laboratory Corporation of America
April 27
April 25
8:30AM
9:00AM
Q1
Q1 Compass Diversified
Excelerate Energy
.25
.025
Immersion
Investar Holding
.03
.095
LKQ April 27 8:00AM Q1 JOYY ADR .51
Dates Sunday (April 30)
Ameriprise Financial
Amgen
April 25
April 27
9:00AM
4:30PM
Q1
Q1
Marketaxess April 26 10:00AM Q1 Haleon ADR
HSBC Holdings ADR
.058
1.15
McGrath RentCorp
WD-40
.465
.83
Federal Reserve Data Bank This list includes payouts on
common stocks.
NONE
Monday (May 1)
Aon PLC
Arch Capital Group
April 28
April 27
8:30AM
11:00AM
Q1
Q1
Masco
Mastercard
April 26
April 27
8:00AM
9:00AM
Q1
Q1 KT ADR
Simpson Manufacturing
.748
.26
Sat. (April 29)-Sun. (April 30)
Mcdonald's April 25 8:30AM Q1 NONE
One week ended Apr 19: Avery Dennison April 26 1:00PM Q1 Merck & Co April 27 9:00AM Q1 Sylvamo .25
NYSE Coca-Cola Femsa ADR 1.196
Baxter International April 27 8:30AM Q1 Wabash National .08
Member Bank Prev.
Week
Year
Ago Tuesday (April 25) Biogen April 25 8:00AM Q1
Meta Platforms
Microsoft
April 26
April 25
5:00PM
5:30PM
Q1
Q3 Friday (April 28) Week’s
Reserve Chgs. (Mil. $) Change Change Albertsons .12 Week’s Ex- Boeing April 26 10:30AM Q1 Mid-America Apartment Communities April 27 10:00AM Q1
Antero Midstream .225
Boston Properties
Boston Scientific
April 26
April 26
10:00AM
8:00AM
Q1
Q1
Mohawk Industries April 28 11:00AM Q1
Advance Auto Parts
Altria Group
1.50
.94 Dividend
U.S. Gov't securities:
Banco Sant Brasil ADR .082
Dividend Camden Property Trust April 28 11:00AM Q1
Molina Healthcare April 27 8:00AM Q1
Arcosa .05
Bought outright 7,870,494 -7,017 -621,853 Clorox 1.18 Capital One Financial April 27 5:00PM Q1
Moody's
MSCI
April 25
April 25
12:30PM
11:00AM
Q1
Q1
Argan .25 Payment
Federal agency secur:
Bought outright 2,347 .... ....
Ecopetrol ADR
Lennar Cl A
.148
.375 Dates Carrier Global
Caterpillar
April 27
April 27
7:30AM
8:30AM
Q1
Q1
Newell Brands
Newmont Corporation
April 28
April 27
9:30AM
10:00AM
Q1
Q1
BankUnited
Brady Cl A
.27
.23 This list includes payouts on
Lennar Cl B .375 Centene April 25 8:30AM Q1 Buckle .35 common stocks.
Lowe's 1.05 This list includes payouts on Nextera Energy April 25 9:00AM Q1
common stocks. CenterPoint Energy April 27 8:00AM Q1 Cdn Imperial Bk Of Comm .618
Reserve bank credit: West Pharmaceutical Svcs .19 Norfolk Southern April 26 8:45AM Q1 NYSE American
Charter Communications April 28 8:30AM Q1 CTS Corp .04
Primary Credit 69,942 +2,021 +68,674 NASDAQ Northern Trust April 25 9:00AM Q1
Wednesday (April 26) Chipotle Mexican Grill April 25 4:30PM Q1 Danaher .27 Mon. (April 24)-Thurs. (April 27)
Secondary Credit .... .... .... Old Dominion Freight Line April 26 10:00AM Q1
Tuesday (April 25) Church & Dwight Co April 27 10:00AM Q1 EOG Resources .825 NONE
ING Groep ADR .41 Otis Worldwide April 26 8:30AM Q1
Seasonal Credit 2 +1 +2 Cal-Maine Foods 2.20 CME April 26 8:30AM Q1 Foot Locker .40
Knot Offshore Partners .026 Paccar April 25 11:00AM Q1 Friday (April 28)
Float -153 +21 -48 Krispy Kreme .035 CMS Energy April 27 9:00AM Q1 Greystone Housing Impact .37
Packaging Corp of America April 25 9:00AM Q1
Other F.R. Assets 44,186 +2,927 +2,550 Thursday (April 27) Wednesday (April 26) Coca-Cola April 24 8:30AM Q1 Humana .885 Blue Ridge Bankshares .123
Pentair PLC April 27 9:00AM Q1
Comcast April 27 8:30AM Q1 Methode Electronics .14 Caledonia Mining .14
Total Fed Credit # 8,570,989 -15,486 -345,260 AO Smith .30 Fastenal .35 Pioneer Natural Resources April 27 10:00AM Q1
CoStar Group April 25 5:00PM Q1 Northern Oil & Gas .34
Gold stock 11,041 .... .... ARC Document Solutions .05 Thursday (April 27) PTC April 26 5:00PM Q2 Sat. (April 29)-Sun. (April 30)
DexCom April 27 4:30PM Q1 OGE Energy .414
SDR Certif. Accounts 5,200 .... .... Banco Santander ADR .063 Quest Diagnostics April 27 8:30AM Q1 NONE
Alliant Energy .452 Domino's Pizza April 27 10:00AM Q1 Oxford Industries .65
Treas. Curr. Outst. 51,681 +14 +728 Bank of Montreal 1.054 Coca-Cola Consolidated .50 Raytheon Technologies April 25 8:30AM Q1
Quaker Houghton .435
Total
Currency in circ
8,657,767
2,322,600
-15,467
-1,390
-344,679
+52,579
Bk of NY Mellon
Conagra Brands
.37
.33
Concentrix
CSW Industrials
Hello Group ADR
.275
.19
.70
Dover
DTE Energy
April 26
April 27
9:00AM
8:00AM
Q1
Q1
Resmed
Robert Half International
April 27
April 26
4:30PM
5:00PM
Q3
Q1
RPM Intl
Sandstorm Gold
.42
.015
Week’s Ex-
Eastman Chemical April 28 8:00AM Q1 Rockwell Automation April 27 8:30AM Q2
Treas. Cash Hldgs
Treas. Fed Deposits
169
166,555
+1
+57,347
+88
-544,851
Ellington Financial
Enterprise Pdts Partners .49
.15 Kentucky First Fed Bncp
Old Second Bancorp
Scholastic
.10
.05
.20
eBay
Edwards Lifesciences
April 26
April 26
5:30PM
5:00PM
Q1
Q1
S&P Global
ServiceNow
April 27
April 26
8:30AM
5:00PM
Q1
Q1
Science Applications
Spirit Airlines
.37
.10 Dividend
Genesis Energy .15
Foreign Fed Deposits
Other Fed Deposits
25,000
203,749
-9,286
-3,349
+25,000
-60,771
Intercorp Finl Svcs
NiSource
1.18
.25
Virtus Invt Partners
Friday (April 28)
1.65 Enphase Energy
Entergy
April 25
April 26
4:30PM
11:00AM
Q1
Q1
Southern
Southwest Airlines
April 27
April 27
1:00PM
12:30PM
Q1
Q1
Stryker Corp
Sysco
TC Energy
.75
.49
.697
Dates
Other FR liab/cap 2,293 +1,201 -46,860 Northwest Natural .485 Casey's General Stores .38 EQT April 27 10:00AM Q1 T-Mobile US April 27 4:30PM Q1
TD SYNNEX .35 This list includes payouts on
Total factors 5,354,614 +95,369 +4,269 nVent Electric .175 Hasbro .70 Fair Isaac April 27 5:00PM Q2 TE Connectivity April 26 8:30AM Q2 common stocks.
HighPeak Energy .025 Fidelity National Information Services April 27 8:00AM Q1 Tecnoglass .09
Reserves F.R. banks 3,303,152 -110,837 -348,949 PermRock Royalty Trust .031 Texas Instruments April 25 4:30PM Q1
Hingham Institution Savs .63 First Republic Bank April 24 4:30PM Q1 Trinity Industries .26 NYSE American
PNM Resources .368 Textron April 27 8:00AM Q1
Fgn hold U.S. debt 3,337,667 +6,719 -107,919 Home Bancorp .25 Watsco 2.45
Signet Jewelers .23 Lifetime Brands .043 First Solar April 27 4:30PM Q1 Thermo Fisher Scientific April 26 8:30AM Q1 Tues. (April 25)-Wed. (April 26)
Fiserv April 25 8:00AM Q1 Watsco B 2.45
Targa Resources .50 Plains All Amer Pipeline .268 UDR April 27 12:00PM Q1 NONE
Plains GP Holdings .268 GE Healthcare Technologies April 25 8:00AM Q1 Zimmer Biomet Holdings .24
Reserve Aggr (Mil. $) Latest Prev. Month % Year Unum Group .33 Verisign April 27 4:30PM Q1 Thursday (April 27)
ZTO Express .37
Month Ended Feb: Month Month Chg. Ago Saturday (April 29) General Dynamics April 26 9:00AM Q1 Waste Management April 27 10:00AM Q1
Friday (April 28) Flexible Solutions .05
NONE Gilead Sciences April 27 4:30PM Q1 West Pharmaceutical Services April 27 9:00AM Q1 Saturday (April 29) Friedman Industries .02
Total Reserves: 3,021,800 3,029,900 -0.27 3,804,500 AES .166 Halliburton April 25 9:00AM Q1 Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies April 26 8:30AM Q1
Sunday (April 30) NONE Friday (April 28)
NonborrowedRes 3,006,200 3,014,200 -0.27 3,775,800 Ally Financial .30 Hartford Financial Services April 28 9:00AM Q1 Weyerhaeuser April 28 10:00AM Q1
BorrowedReserves 15,606 15,719 -0.72 28,715 Aon .615 NONE Hasbro April 27 8:30AM Q1 Whirlpool April 25 8:00AM Q1 Sunday (April 30) Mexco Energy .10
Monetary Base 5,321,000 5,328,400 -0.14 6,039,900 Citigroup .51 Monday (May 1) Healthpeak Properties April 28 11:00AM Q1 Willis Towers Watson PLC April 27 9:00AM Q1 Edison International .738 Sat. (April 29)-Mon. (May 1)
Grupo Aval Acciones ADR .016 ASML Holding 1.839 Hershey April 27 8:30AM Q1 Source: CCBN, www.ccbn.com JPMorgan Chase 1.00 NONE
April 24, 2023 BARRON’S 61
LegendBiotech AdventTech Conn's IntegratedMedia RBB Bancorp NEW HIGHS Oracle Berkley
Week’s LibertyBraves A
LibertyBraves C
LibertyRscsA
AegleaBioTherap
AEye
AgileThought
ContextLogic
Crexendo
Cronos
Inventiva
Investar
iSun
RelayTherap
RhinebeckBncp
Rivian
AerojetRocket
AfterNextA
OverseasShip
PGT Innovations
POSCO
BerkshireHills
BigLots
BlendLabs
AltC Acqn
New Highs and Limbach
LongboardPharm
ManhattanAssoc
Agriforce
AirTransportSvcs
AlignmentHlthcr
CrossFirstBkshs
CueHealth
CumberlandPharm
JamesRiver
JayudGlblLogistics
JupiterWellnessA
RVL Pharm
SandySpringBncp
Satellogic
Aon
ApolloStratII A
PPG Ind
PampaEnergia
PeakstoneRealty
BrandywineRealty
BrightHealth
CI&T
Lows MaquiaCapital
MarinusPharm
Masimo
AllarityTherap
AlphaTeknova
Alpine4
CuriosityStream
CVB Fin
CytoMedTherap
KearnyFinancial
KinnateBio
KornitDigital
SaverOne2014
Semtech
SentiBiosciences
AresAcqnA
AssetMarkFin
AthenaTechII A
PostHldgsA
PulteGroup
PyrophyteAcqn
Cato
CentralPacFin
ChinaGreenAg
NYSE AtlasEnergySolns
MaxeonSolar Alset CyxteraTech KronosBio ShengfengDevt RELX Cushman&Wkfd
AutoZone
MelcoResorts AltamiraTherap DarioHealth KuraOncology SHF RLI Endava
169 95
BWX Tech
MercadoLibre AltisourcePortf Datasea LakelandFin ShiftPixy RaytheonTech EnergyVault
BadgerMeter
MeritMedical AmerantBncpA DigitalAlly Latham ShoreBancshares RentokilInit Enviva
Bladex
New Highs New Lows MontereyBioAcqn AmerisBancorp DigitalBrands Leafly SidusSpace RestaurantBrands EquitransMdstm
BanyanAcqnA
MontereyCapA AmesNational DimeCommBcshs LeeEnterprises SierraBancorp SAP FB Financial
BellRing
Nasdaq NatlInstruments AmNtlBcsh DISH Network Lilium SilenceTherap SDCLEDGEAcqn FathomDigital
BostonSci
NewburyStreetA Amyris DLH Holdings LordstownMotors SimmonsFirstNat Salesforce Fisker
BoydGaming
231 452
NewProvidenceII A ApollomicsA Dogness LuokungTech SingularGenomics Samsara FlotekIndustries
BuildersFirst SimpsonMfg
NVIDIA AppHarvest DZS LutherBurbank SmartforLife GlacierBancorp
BurfordCapital SkechersUSA
OcularTherapeutix AppliedMolecular E-HomeHousehold MagicEmpire SnailA GranitePointMtg
New Highs New Lows CBIZ SkylineChamp
OcuphirePharma AppliedUV EagleBancorp MagicSoftware SNDL GrayTelevision
Cemex Snap-On
Ohmyhome ApreaTherap EasternBankshares MagyarBancorp SocketMobile GuarantyBcshrs
NYSE American CenturyComm SoCopper
Opera ArbeRobotics EastsideDistilling MainStreetBcshs SoMO Bancorp Hanesbrands
Chemed SouthportAcqnA
OReillyAuto ArcadiaBiosci ECB Bancorp MainzBiomed SonnetBio HoraceMannEdu
13 18
Chipotle Stevanato
OvidTherap Arrival Edgio Mannatech Sono Hyliion
ChurchillVII A Stryker
OxbridgeAcqnA ArrowFinancial EducDev MarinSoftware SouthernFirstBcsh ICL Group
CleanHarbors StudioCity
New Highs New Lows PaloAltoNtwks AscentSolar ENDRA LifeSci MarketWise SouthPlainsFin Infosys
Clorox TaylorMorrison
ParkCity AtlisMotor Energous MercantileBank Staffing360 InnovativeIndProp
Only includes COMMON and REIT stocks Coca-Cola Femsa TeckResourcesB
PatriotTransport Atomera ENGlobal MercerIntl SteakholderFds JonesLang
ColombierAcqnA Tecnoglass
PerionNetwork aTyrPharma EnlightRenewableEn Meridian SteelConnect KenonHoldings
EngGr-Cmg C Textainer
NYSE American BELLUS Health PhoenixBiotech AudioCodes EnthusiastGaming MetaMaterials StellarBancorp LL Flooring
ConcordAcqnIII A Toll Bros
BioPlusAcqnA PioneerPwrSols AuroraCannabis EquityBcshs MGO Global StockYardsBncp Lemonade
NEW HIGHS CorpAmAirports TopBuild
BlueOceanA PonoCapitalThree AuroraMobile Erasca MicrobotMed SummitFin LumenTech
Coty TreeHouseFoods
AltisourceAsset BookingHldgs Potbelly Avinger EtaoInternational micromobility.com Sunworks MP Materials
CraneNXT TriPointe
AultDisruptive BOS BetterOnln PreformedLine AXT EuroTech MicroVision Surgalign Mytheresa
Crawford A TripleFlagPrecMtl
Chase BroadCapital PrometheusBio BankFinancial EzFill MidlandStBncp T2Biosystems MSG Ent
DRDGOLD US Xpress
ContangoOre CactusAcqn1 A ProventionBio BankFirst F5 MidPennBancorp Tantech Markforged
DeckersOutdoor Unilever
Espey CalliditasTherap PTC Therap BankofMarinBncp FaradayFuture MidWestOneFin TDH Medifast
Dole UnivInsurance
GalataAcqn CarrolsRestr QuadroAcqnOneA BankofSC FarmersNatlBanc MillenniumGrpIntl Telos MoneyLion
DrReddy'sLab Visa
GalianoGold CasellaWaste RadNet BayCom FirstBancorp ModivCare TerritorialBncp NexPointRealEst
elfBeauty VistaEnergy
HNR Acqn Certara ReataPharm BayFirstFinancial FirstBancorpNC MoleculinBiotech TexasCommBcshs NicoletBankshares
EdgewellPersonal Watsco
HorizonII A CF Acqn VIII A RemitlyGlobal BCB Bancorp FirstBancshares Momentus ThermoGenesis Ouster
EdisonIntl WaverleyCap1 A
inTEST ChainBridgeIA ReneoPharm BeasleyBroadcast FirstBank MonoparTherap ThirdCoastBcshs Owlet
EnelChile WisdomTree
NorthernStrII A CitiusPharm RevivaPharm BioCryst FirstBusey MontaukRenew Thoughtworks ProvidentFinSvcs
EroCopper WW Ent
PerspectiveTherap CitizensFinlSvc RiotPlatforms Biolase FirstFinIN MonteRosaTherap TianRuixiang RubiconTech
FairIsaac XponentialFit
TrioPetroleum CleanEarthA Sanfilippo Biomerica FirstFoundation MoolecScience TopKingWin SES AI
FederatedHermes Yum!Brands
Coca-ColaEuro Sanofi BionanoGenom FirstHawaiian MotorcarParts ToughBuiltInds SendasDistrib
NEW LOWS FomentoEconMex ZimmerBiomet
Copart SI-BONE BitdeerTech FirstInterBanc Movano TowneBank ServisFirst
AirspanNetworks FusionAcqnIIA
CorbusPharm SonimTech BitNileMetaverse FirstInternetBncp MullenAuto Transphorm NEW LOWS SOQUIMICH
AlmadenMinerals Gallagher
Corvel SpokHoldings BlinkCharging FirstWesternFin MVB Financial Trimble a.k.a.Brands SolarisOilfield
Ashford SuperMicroComp GeneralElec
Crocs BogotaFinl FlushingFin NatlEnerSvs Trupanion GreenBrickPtrs Albemarle SouthwestGas
BlueRidgeBkshs Symbotic Stem
Cvent Brainsway FNCB Bancorp Nayax TrustcoBank HCA Healthcare AlticeUSA
cbdMD TargetGlbl I A TrancntlRlty
CymaBayTherap BridgewaterBcshs FocusUniversal Netcapital Trustmark Haleon AltusPower
InnSuitesHosp TernsPharm TutorPerini
CytoMedTherap Brightcove ForesightAuto NetSolTech TwinVee Hershey AmericanWell
IssuerDirect TheravanceBio US Bancorp
DescartesSystems BrightMindsBio FormulaSys NeuBaseTherap U Power DR Horton ArborRealty
MaiaBiotech ThunderBridgeIV A VenatorMaterials
DiscMedicine BroogeEnergy FrequencyTherap Newegg Udemy HysterYaleMatls ArdaghMetalPkg
Nuburu Tingo VirnetX
DPCapAcqnIA BrooklineBcp FuelCell Newmark UnitedBkshrsWV IconicSportsA ArisWater
ParkNational TizianaLife AspenAerogels Walker&Dunlop
DraftKings Bumble FultonFin NFTGaming UnitedSecBcshrs Insperity
PolymetMining TopKingWin BancCalifornia WeWork
Escalade BusFirstBcshs FVCBankcorp NicholasFin UniversePharm InstalledBldg
PowerREIT TractorSupply BankofButterfield Wipro
ExcelFinAcqnA BuzzFeed GauchoGroup NorthfieldBanc UnivestFin IntlGameTech
TompkinsFin TransMedics BankUnited Wolfspeed
Eyenovia Caesarstone GenerationsBncp NorthwestBcshs UplandSoftware KB Home
TrinityPlace FatProjectsAcqn TravelCenters
CalAmp GermanAmBncp Novonix UraniumRoyalty LambWeston
TrioPetroleum TROOPS
Nasdaq
FG Merger
FifthWallIII A U Power
UFP Tech
CaliforniaBncp
CambridgeBncp
Gevo
GilatSatellite
NV5Global
OceanFirstFin
USCB Financial
USGoldMining
LasVegasSands
Lennar A Barron’s 50-Stock Average
FirstCitizBcshA CamdenNational GlenBurnieBncp OfficePropIncm UTime Lennar B This index is a weighted average of 50 leading issues. Useful in secu-
NEW HIGHS UnitedInsurance
FirstSolar CandelTherap GlobusMaritime Old2ndBcp Uxin LeoHldgsII A rity valuation. Source: Barron's Stats
7GC A USGoldMining
ForesightAuto CanopyGrowth GMedInnov OldNatlBncp Vacasa EliLilly Apr 20 Apr 13 April Yr-to-Yr
AAON UTA Acqn A
FTAI Aviation CapStarFin GoPro OneStopSystems VCIGlobal Linde 2023 2023 2022 % Chg
Accolade ValuenceI A
GainTherap CaraTherap GorillaTech OrbitalInfr Veradigm LiveOakCrestview S&P 500 Index 4129.79 4146.22 4393.49 –6.00
AchieveLifeSci VectivBio Barron’s 50 Index 11379.00 11355.17 11725 –2.95
GE HealthCare CaravelleIntl GossamerBio OrganiGram VerbTech LiveOakCrestA
ActivisionBliz VEON Projected quarterly earn 170.52 159.59 141.11 20.84
GlobalinkInvt CareMax GreeneCnty Orgenesis VerdeCleanFuelsA LockheedMartin
AhrenAcqnA Vertex Annualized projected earn 682.08 638.35 564.46 20.84
GoalAcqns CatalystBncp GT Biopharma OrrstownFinSvcs ViaRenewables MI Homes
AlphaStarAcqn VertexPharm Annualized projected P/E 16.68 17.79 20.8 –19.70
GoldenArrowA CathayGenBncp HanmiFinancial PacificPremBncp ViaviSolutions MSC Industrial Five-year average earn 486.93 486.93 436.57 11.54
Alphatec ViemedHealthcare
GreencityAcqn CEA Inds HanoverBancorp ParkeBancorp View MSG Ent Five-year average P/E 23.37 23.32 26.9 –12.99
AmphastarPharm VikingTherap
HarrowHealth CerberusCyber HarborOneBncp PCB Bancorp ViewRay MSG Sports Year-end earn 619.08 619.08 565.42 9.49
VitaCoco
Amplitech HealthStream CF Bankshares HeartlandFinUSA PCConnection VincoVentures MagellanMid Year-end P/E 18.38 18.34 20.7 –11.36
VOXX Intl
AnixaBiosci HeritageGlobal CFSB Bancorp HeritageCommerce PeapackGladFinl ViraxBiolabs Marsh&McLen Year-end earns yield, % 5.44 5.45 4.8 12.81
Wang&Lee Best grade bond yields, % 4.37 4.55 3.30 32.32
ApellisPharm HorizonSpaceI ChargeEnt Hesai PeoplesFinSvcs VislinkTech Materion
Winmark Bond yields/stock ylds, % 0.80 0.83 0.69 17.25
AquaronAcqn HuronConsulting ChinaJoJoDrug HinghamSvg Peraso WahFuEducation MaxarTech Actual year-end divs 242.75 242.31 226.17 7.33
ARBIOT InozymePharma NEW LOWS ChinaSXTPharm HomeBancorp PhioPharm Wang&Lee McDonald's Actual yr-end divs yld, % 2.13 2.13 1.93 10.58
Arcellx Insulet 1895Bancorp CIIGCapPtrsII HomeTrustBcshs Phunware WashingtonFederal Merck
ArchCapital Intapp CivistaBcshrs Hookipa PioneerBancorp
Distributions & Offerings
1stSource WashTrBcp MeritageHomes
Ardelyx InterParfums 23andMe Clearfield HopeBancorp PLBY Group WesBanco Mettler-Toledo
AriszAcqnA Intra-Cellular 2seventybio CloverHealth HourLoop PlugPower WestamericaBncp MistrasGroup
AstraZeneca IntuitiveSurgical CmntyTrBcp Ideanomics PlusTherap Secondary Distributions of common stocks
5EAdvMatls WestBancorp MotorolaSol
Astronics InvestcorpIndiaA Aceragen CNB FinPA Identiv PredictiveOncology WestportFuelSys NVR Alphatec Holdings 4,285,715 $14.00 $60,000,010
AsureSoftware IperionX ActelisNtwks CoffeeHolding IF Bancorp PreferredBankLA WeTrade NewMarket Gamida Cell Ltd 17,500,000 $1.30 $22,750,000
AtlasLithium IridiumComm AdaptHealth ColonyBankcorp IN8bio PremierFinl NorthAmConstr Immuneering 2,727,273 $11.00 $30,000,003
WholeEarthBrds
Marpai 7,400,000 $1.00 $7,400,000
AtlCoastal II A IVERICbio Addentax ComeraLifeSci IndependentBank PresidioProperty WindtreeTherap Novartis
Sidus Space 30,303,030 $0.33 $10,000,000
Augmedix IXAcqnA ADDvantage CommerceBcshrs IndependentBank Proterra Workhorse NovoNordisk TELA Bio 4,750,000 $9.50 $45,125,000
AuraFatProjectsA JayudGlblLogistics Aditxt CommScope IndLogistics QCR Holdings XcelBrands OakStreetHealth Vaxcyte 14,030,000 $41.00 $575,229,000
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62 BARRON’S April 24, 2023
O T H E R VO I C E S
If the recent period of low rates was financially
destabilizing, it’s because they were different
from what was planned on.
To Cause Bubbles.
people are reaching for yield, the Alameda, according to The Wall Street
argument goes, they are more likely Journal. It wouldn’t take low rates to
to buy into projects that turn out to make that attractive—if he good for it.
be driven by fraud, hype, or fantasy. Someone like Bankman-Fried isn’t
T
with high ones. When risk-free re- That said, there is one plausible
he past year has BY J.W. rates lead to bubbles is that when turns are low, there should be more story in which low rates lead to dan-
seen a parade of MASON income from safe assets is low, inves- legitimate higher-yielding alterna- gerous risk-taking. Institutions such
financial failures Mason is a profes- tors will “reach for yield,” bidding up tives, and less need for risky long as insurance and pension funds have
and asset crashes. sor of economics the price of riskier assets. Investors’ shots. Conversely, it is the projects long-term liabilities that are more or
at John Jay Col-
Silicon Valley Bank lege, City Univer- own liabilities also matter. When it’s that promise very high returns that less fixed. Their long investment
was the first bank sity of New York, cheap and easy to borrow, an asset are most likely to be frauds—and horizons mean their loss of income
failure since 2020, and a fellow at the may be attractive that wouldn’t be that are viable at very high rates. from lower rates will outweigh their
and the biggest since 2008. Before Roosevelt Institute. if financing were harder to come by. Certainly this was Adam Smith’s capital gains. (This is one thing the
that came the collapse of crypto But if low interest rates make ac- view. For him, speculation and fraud BIS gets right.) When the alternative
exchange FTX. Even luxury watches quiring risky assets more attractive, weren’t arguments for high interest is insolvency, it can make sense to
are in free fall. is that a problem? The whole goal of rates, but reasons to prohibit them. choose a project where the expected
If so many assets were overvalued, rate cuts is to encourage investment If legal interest rates were “so high return is negative, if it offers a chance
it’s natural to ask if the reason was a spending that wouldn’t happen if rates as 8% or 10%,” he believed, then “the of getting out of the hole. That’s a
decade-plus of low interest rates set by were higher. As I argued recently, it greater part of the money which was common explanation for the seem-
the Federal Reserve and other central isn’t clear that business investment is to be lent would be lent to prodigals ingly irresponsible loans made by
banks. Widespread bubbles and fraud very responsive to interest rates. But and projectors, who alone would be many savings and loans in the
are, in this view, a sign that monetary whether the effect is strong or weak, willing to give this high interest.” 1980s—faced with bankruptcy, they
policy should never have been so “low interest rates cause people to buy The FTX saga is an excellent “gambled for resurrection.” One can
loose. imagine other institutions making a
Versions of the argument that low similar choice.
rates lead to bubbles are made by High rates broke the S&Ls, not low
financial journalists and prominent ones. But there is a common thread.
Keynesians, as well as by economists A balance sheet set up on the basis of
of a more conservative bent. At the interest rates in some range will have
Bank for International Settlements, problems if they move outside it. Mod-
or BIS, “too low for too long” is practi- ern economies depend on a vast web
cally a mantra. But does the story of payment expectations and commit-
make sense? ments stretching into the future.
Yes, low interest rates mean high Changes in interest rates change those
asset prices. But that’s not the same future payments. Whether upward or
as a bubble. To the extent that an downward, this means disappointed
asset represents a stream of future expectations and broken commit-
payments, a lower discount rate ments.
should raise its value. If the recent period of low rates
On the other hand, asset prices was financially destabilizing, it isn’t
aren’t just about discounted future because rates were low. It’s because
MAILBAG
Send letters to Mail@Barrons.com. To be considered for Numbers by Barron’s, which breaks down the markets,
publication, correspondence must bear the writer’s name, is available wherever you listen to podcasts.
address, and phone number. Letters are subject to editing.
looming recession is an empty wish. month-over-month change is too noisy Them the Right Way,” Striking Price,
Chairman Jerome Powell is already on to be of any use, and the year-over- April 12). Our family office has used
the hook for one big mistake regarding year increase (or decrease) in prices Sears’ basic options strategy for years.
price stability. He won’t do it again. He changes too slowly—that is, it lags be- Our “strong point of view on stocks”
knows he needs a recession, has or- hind far behind changes in the near- is to target long-term dividend growth
dered one up, and won’t “listen to rea- term rate of inflation. That’s especially businesses that we plan to own forever.
son” until his parameters are either problematic with inflation, which is We acquire them by selling out-of-the-
reached or clearly in sight. itself a lagging indicator to begin with. money puts on down days. That’s right,
That will take a long time. In other words, inflation lags be- we sell the dips, generating solid cash
Michael Mikita hind the changes in the state of the real on cash returns particularly during
On Barrons.com economy. The only reasonable ap- periods of high volatility. If we acquire
proach is to focus more on near-term the business, we get it at a lower price.
inflation rates, measured over six and If the option expires unexecuted, we
Fun Place to Be three months, but not less than three get that nice cash return. As Sears ad-
months because statistical noise is too vises, it’s just a great way to buy the
To the Editor: high for the result to be reliable. businesses you want to own. Sell calls?
I suspect that most retail investors, like Douglas Rife Not so much, and generally only when
me, wouldn’t touch most commodity On Barrons.com a business fails to increase our income.
pure plays with a barge pole (“Com- Patrick J. Keogh
modity ‘supercycle’ Will Take Gold and Llano, Texas
Oil Much Higher, Strategist Says,” Whiff of Default
Streetwise, April 14). However, as a
believer in the business of agriculture To the Editor: Wait for It
and metals and mining and wanting A big tailwind for gold is the coming
Well at Night:
Deere to Rio Tinto. That includes com- the Rally Might Not Stop There,” The that every single financial consultant’s
panies that produce fertilizer, herbi- Trader, April 14). Any whiff of default main objective is to accumulate assets
cides, pesticides, and seed. Both Deere should send gold much higher. Also, under management, since that is one
and AGCO are really technology com- regarding the threat of the U.S. dollar way to get paid, plus commission-
Bigger Banks
panies on wheels. Then, there’s Cater- losing its reserve status, it appears oriented transactions (“Financial Ad-
pillar digging holes (Deere, too), rail that the path of least resistance to the visor Teams Come in Many Flavors.
hauling, ships and barges moving end value of the dollar is lower—therefore, How to Pick the Right One for You,”
user product, etc. The commodities gold goes higher. April 14). The consultants’ mantra is to
business is a fun place to be, for the Michael Girardi buy and hold, regardless of how over-
To the Editor: most part. People have to eat, whatever On Barrons.com valued the stock/market is. Buy and
Tellus is another good reason to avoid financial-technol- the price of putting food on the table. hope has never been, nor will it ever
ogy nonbanks offering superhigh interest rates way William Butcher be, a good strategy/discipline. Buy at
above what’s available from traditional banks and even On Barrons.com An Options Strategy the bottom and sell at the top. I believe
seasoned fintech lenders: If it looks too good, then it isn’t that we will revisit the lows of the
to be believed (“Money Games,” Cover Story, April 11). To the Editor: 2020s within 12 months, and then it
Stick with the bigger banks, Treasuries, money-market Reasonable Approach So Steven M. Sears has found a disciple will be time to back up the truck and
funds, and Series I savings bonds. Sleep well at night. in John Marshall, Goldman Sachs’ de- load up with formidable companies.
Kevin Larhsonn To the Editor: rivatives strategist (“You Can Beat the Carlos T. Baez
On Barrons.com Serious economists have been noting Market With Options—if You Use On Barrons.com
for some time that the annual rate of
inflation measured over the past six
Powell Needs a Recession months is always lower than the year-
over-year change (“The Yield Curve
“Stick with the bigger banks,
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