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April TRAINING

EXECUTIVE

EXECUTIVE BUSINESS SIMULATION

MARKET RESEARCH PACKAGE FOR THE


EUROPEAN PASSENGER AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

2021/22
Executive Business Simulation Market Research

THE EUROPEAN CAR MARKET

1. BACKGROUND TO THE MARKETPLACE

In 2008 and 2009, Europe was the world's largest passenger car market in terms of sales, taking over from the USA, where
the market was falling. However, from 2007 to 2013 sales in Europe shrank year on year and the low levels experienced in
2013 were last seen in 1993. China became the largest car market in the world in 2010 and now accounts for a quarter of
all sales worldwide, although there has been a decline in sales since 2018. However, the fall in sales in 2020 was less than
in most other markets and there is predicted to be significant growth in 2021. Europe held second position for 2010 and
2011, but in 2012 the US market began a slow recovery and Europe slipped into third place, a trend that has continued to
date, although the gap has reduced in recent years. Sales for 2020 were 14.5m in the United States (16.97m in 2019) and
11.94m in Europe (15.8m in 2019), dramatic falls on both continents as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.

Despite changing sales levels, the European automotive marketplace remains an extremely competitive arena with few
companies managing to post a consistent pattern of profitability within their European operations.

1.1 The Financial and Economic Environment


The COVID-19 pandemic has severely damaged the global economy but, as the world moves out of it with the progression
of the vaccination programme, there is hope that recovery will be fairly rapid. However, some countries have incurred
huge debt because of the support packages offered during the pandemic, and this will undoubtedly result in some austerity
measures being re-imposed for some time to come. The motor industry, which already had problems before the outbreak
of the pandemic, has experienced a huge slump in sales and associated revenue as showrooms were closed and movement
restricted. There will, undoubtedly, be financial implications that could impact on employment if cutbacks are needed. In
addition, post-pandemic, there seems to be a shortage of parts, primarily semiconductor microchips, which is slowing down
production of new cars, creating long waiting lists at dealerships. This is likely to continue until at least the end of 2021
and could slow down recovery for the car manufacturers.

Until the outbreak of the pandemic, the economic recovery seen over recent years throughout Europe had been predicted
to slow down anyway, mainly because of manufacturing weaknesses and concerns over global trade conflicts. There were
also warnings of recession in some countries. However, government austerity measures had eased and unemployment
was at its lowest rate since 2008, so consumer confidence appeared to remain high, with public expenditure keeping
economies stable. Whether or not consumer confidence overall can be retained is likely to be linked to employment and
disposable income levels. As a positive, those people who have been able to continue working throughout the pandemic
are likely to have been able to save their income while travel and socialising were prohibited, and therefore may have more
money available to spend than in normal times.

The trade agreement reached between the EU and the UK has allayed fears of tariffs being imposed on import and export
of parts and finished vehicles post-Brexit, but there will be some increased costs relating to customs administration
requirements. The long-term effect of the UK’s departure from the EU on the industry has yet to be seen, as the pandemic
has over-ridden everything.

1.2 The European Car Market


[For the purposes of this section the marketplace comprises the European Union (25-27 countries as in some cases no data
is available from Cyprus and Malta) + the EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland) and the UK. Figures do not
include the European countries that are not part of the EU. Please note that some sources will report the EU27 or EU14
figures only, some will include the EU14 + EFTA and some will include the whole of Europe, therefore figures quoted in other
sources could be different to the ones provided in this document.]

Market Size
The market has undergone a period of significant change and turmoil over the last 15 years. In 2007, sales of passenger
cars reached a high of 16m in Europe, but then in 2008, they plummeted and were easily the worst for over a decade at
14.7 million. Gloomy forecasts for 2009 proved to be well founded with the whole market falling yet again. There was
some recovery at the start of 2010, mainly as a direct result of Government incentives, the most successful being the
scrappage schemes that were introduced in 2009 and continued through part of 2010. However, once the schemes ended,
the industry was left still suffering from over-capacity and a crowded marketplace, forcing several European companies to
reduce their workforce and production and enforce new working practices. The year finally ended with registrations falling
to 13.8 million.

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

New product ranges and upgrades to established models stimulated growth in the first quarter of 2011 but eventually
registrations fell by 1.5% to 13.6 million for the whole year. There was some optimism as sales improved on 2010 figures
in the stronger economies, with sales generally reflecting the economic conditions within individual countries, but this
optimism was short lived as 2012 saw a decline in nearly all countries, with the overall market falling by 8.1% to 12.5 million.
2013 saw a further 1.6% fall to 12.3 million, the lowest level since 1995 and 25% below the 2007 peak. However, the last
4 months of 2013 saw the beginning of some growth. Fortunately, the trend continued into 2014 and the year ended with
registrations of just below 13 million, an upturn of 5.6% and the first increase since 2007.

2015 brought more optimism, with registrations rising by 9.2% to a total of 14.2 million. The trend continued throughout
2016, with sales increasing month on month (apart from a negligible fall in October), and the year ended with a 6.3%
increase to a total of 15.1m units.

2017 saw the fourth consecutive year of growth, but at the slower rate of 3.3%. Total sales were 15.6m. Of significance
was the fall in sales in the UK by 5.7%. Growth had slowed down in 2016, but this was the first time a fall in the market had
been reported for six years.

Registrations remained stable at 15.6m in 2018. The year began optimistically but demand fell in the last four months.
However, registrations rose again in 2019, only by 1.1% to 15.78m, but it was still an increase, and the largest number of
annual sales since 2007. Following the trend of recent years, the biggest increases in 2019 were in the Central European
countries and of the top five markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, only France achieved continuous growth
between 2017 and 2019. Sales fluctuated in Germany, Italy and Spain and in the UK registrations continued to fall (-6.8%
in 2018 and -2.4% in 2019). This continuous decline in the UK may have been a result of concerns over Brexit, road taxation
levies set by the government for new cars in 2017 and the possible restrictions that may be imposed on diesel cars.

2020, dominated by the COVID-19 crisis, saw new car sales plummet by 24.3%, the largest fall ever recorded, affecting all
countries. All leading markets experienced double digit losses. Norway fared the best, recording a drop of less than 1%.
Experts predict that the bounce back will begin in 2021, starting slowly and then picking up as the vaccination programme
progresses. As forecast, the first quarter saw a large percentage increase in sales compared to 2020, but with figures still
lower than for the same period in 2019. It is expected that the market will rise by 10% by the end of the year.

Noteworthy in 2020 was the continued growth of the SUV market and the increase in the Alternatively-Powered Vehicle
(APV) market. SUV sales now dominate in most sectors, taking 44% of the market share in the first quarter of 2021,
compared to 40% in the same period 2020 and 37% in 2019. In terms of fuel type, APVs took 24.5% of total sales in 2020.
This is still only a relatively small proportion of the total car market and petrol (gasoline) sales still take the largest
percentage share, although they are now falling. Diesel sales continue to fall, but are seeing a recovery in some countries,
and it remains the second most popular fuel. In 2020, sales by fuel type were split as follows:

 Petrol : 47.5% (57.8% in 2019)


 Diesel : 28% (31.6% in 2019)
 APVs : 24.5% (10.6% in 2019)

Of the 24.5%, sales of APVs were distributed in the following way :

 ECVs (Electrically Charged Vehicles : 10.5% (3% in 2019)


 HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) : 11.9% (5.7% in 2019)

The remainder were fuelled by alternative fuels such as bioethanol, Natural Gas (NGV) and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG),
also referred to as propane or butane.

Figures for the first quarter of 2021 indicate that this trend will continue.

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Financial Position of Car Manufacturers

Overview
Limited sales growth, and the subsequent need to reduce margins to attract buyers, resulted in profits from sales in Europe
being squeezed for most automotive companies in the years of economic pressure, with losses being incurred by many of
the leading marques in their European sectors. Up until the COVID-19 pandemic, the substantial increase in sales in Europe
and a rise in profits in the European operations had enabled the majority of car makers to return to profitability. However,
the mass market brands were still forced to operate with relatively low profit margins and profits remained under threat
for all manufacturers because of the ever-rising costs of developing electric cars, the higher production costs needed to
meet the rigorous new emissions standards, the potential impact of possible trade wars, particularly between China and
the United States, and continuing fluctuation in exchange rates. The European marketplace appeared to be near its peak
at the end of 2019 and was likely to take a downturn within a couple of years but then the pandemic created a dramatic
dip at the beginning of 2020. Fortunately for most European car manufacturers, China’s economy opened up mid-2020,
which gave them a much-needed boost to sales and revenue, particularly in the last quarter. Consequently, profits have
suffered, but have been protected to some extent.

This is not the first time that worldwide markets have come to the rescue when the industry has faced problems in Europe.
During times of economic slump in Europe, manufacturers that operate globally have managed to stay in profit because of
sales in other regions, particularly in China and the emerging markets of India, Brazil and Russia. However, those markets
are now changing. Sales in China fell in 2018 and again in 2019 and 2020, following 20 years of rapid growth, but are
predicted to start increasing again in 2021, albeit not to pre-2018 levels. The Russian and Brazilian markets are not stable,
with sales collapsing in 2015 and 2016. Brazil showed good recovery 2017-2019 but was hit hard in 2020 and may be
slower to recover than many places given the severity of the pandemic in the country. The Russian market improved for a
couple of years but declined again in 2019 and 2020, it is predicted that there will be some recovery in 2021. The potential
in India is huge; it is the fifth largest market in the world and predicted to continue rising. However, the market is entirely
different to other leading economies in that the largest sector within the car industry is taken up by two-wheeler vehicles
and it is likely to be some time before this situation changes. Passenger cars make up just 12.9% of total vehicle sales.
These facts highlight that these markets cannot be totally relied upon to ensure profitability. As a result, there is likely to
be more pressure to return profits from the European and US markets.

As Europe slowly emerges from the pandemic, it is predicted that demand for new cars will undoubtedly increase. There
are signs that demand may even outstrip supply capability, which is restricted because of limited output levels in 2020,
caused by the short-term closure of plants and reduced production levels resulting from social distance measures.
Returning to full capacity is being hampered by the shortage of semiconductor microchips, which has already resulted in
production of cars being halted and even temporary plant closures.

Jaguar Land Rover


Jaguar Land Rover (owned by Tata of India), BMW and VW are the only companies that maintained profitability in Europe
throughout the economic crisis (although VW did report a loss in 2015 – see below), mainly due to the extreme popularity
of particular models, e.g. BMW’s Mini, the Audi Q3, the VW Golf and the Land Rover Evoque. As these models age, the
manufacturers are updating them with new technology and electric/hybrid engines. However, the cost of the investment
in technology needed for any new model will initially impact on profit margins.

In 2018 and 2019, Jaguar Land Rover was hit hard by the fall in diesel sales in Europe and a loss of sales in China, its two
largest markets. To safeguard profits, the company cut contract jobs in 2018 and 10% of its workforce in 2019. Sales and
revenue fell by 6% in the full year of 2019 but there was a recovery towards the end of the year with the successful launch
of upgraded and improved products, namely, the Jaguar E-PACE, the electric Jaguar I-PACE and the refreshed Range Rover.
In the third quarter of 2019, the company moved from its loss-making position into profit. Despite a huge drop in sales in
Europe, the company returned an end of year profit of £662m in March 2021 (if exceptional charges are not included - loss
of £861m with the charges). Worldwide, revenue increased by 20.5% led by strong sales in China and global sales of the
new Land Rover Defender, supported by the success of the click and collect programme in the UK during the time of
showroom closures.

The company is partnering with BMW to jointly develop electric motors, transmissions and power electronics, so that some
of the high costs of advancing green technology are shared. Finally, to boost sales in 2021, new technologies have been
added to many of its models so that 11 out of 13 cars in its range are now available with hybrid engine options, and the
Jaguar I-Pace BEV is powered entirely by electricity.

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Volkswagen Group
VW is the largest manufacturing group in Europe, providing almost a quarter of all cars sold in the region. The company’s
profits suffered in 2015 when the company was hit by the emissions scandal and the cost of compensation packages
resulted in a loss for the company for the first time in 20 years. It is evidence of VW’s strength that it returned to a profit
in 2016, doubled operating profits in 2017 and reached the high end of its profit margin target in 2018, coupled with a 2.7%
increase in revenue. There was also a slight increase in market share. This trend continued in 2019, with revenue and
profits increasing by 7% and 15.4%, respectively. Number of sales grew by a modest 3.4%, which was better than expected
given the shrinking market. The company also had a stronger 2020 than expected, revenue fell by 16.4% but profits only
dropped by 11.8% thanks to effective crisis management. Globally, sales fell by 15%, but were still the world’s second
highest at 9.3m (only Toyota sold more) and market share actually increased marginally to 13%. In Europe, unit sales fell
by 21.5% but were still the highest achieved by any manufacturer. Pre-tax profits fell by 45% but were still positive at
€11.7bn, these figures do not include the exceptional charges that are ongoing because of the 2015 diesel emissions issue.
Its relatively strong position compared to many of its competitors is due to a rapid recovery in China, its largest market,
towards the end of the year and the stability of its premium and financial services business. Profits were also helped by a
very aggressive cost cutting exercise in the summer of 2020, at the expense of employee relations.

Aside from the overall financial performance, VW does seem to struggle more than their competitors with the new WLTP
emissions laws. In 2020 the company again failed to meet EU targets for CO2 emissions and faces a fine of more than
€100m.

Individually, the Group’s companies had a varied performance. At Porsche, sales were down by just 3%, compared to a
global industry average of 15%, and profits actually increased. The Porsche Taycan, the first all-electric sports car, was
widely acclaimed and 20,000 units were delivered. The VW marque managed to break even despite a dire beginning to
the year and a delay to the launch of the new Golf 8 and the electric ID.3. Audi sales decreased by 8%, with a sharp revival
in the second half of the year and record sales in the last quarter. The top-range and SUV models were especially successful
and the all-electric Audi e-tron (including the Sportback), was the best-selling electric vehicle worldwide by a German
premium manufacturer, with 80% growth in demand. Pre-tax profits were less than in 2019 but still healthy, again careful
cost and investment control contributed to the positive financial result. Seat did not fare as well because its main
marketplace is Europe, so the recovery in China did not help. Revenue was down 20% and unit sales 27.5%, resulting in an
operating loss, following a profit in 2019. On a positive note, the launch of the Leon and Cupra models, with hybrid options,
has been successful, with Cupra sales increasing by 11.1%, one of the only models to do so in Europe. This was despite a
fall in production of 31.3% because of COVID related limitations. Skoda also saw reduced sales, revenue, profit and
production despite its main market being China, where deliveries decreased by 38.7%. Sales did increase in Turkey
(+56.3%) and Russia (+6.8%). Finally, Bentley saw deliveries increase slightly, with 5.7% growth in the USA and 48.5% in
China. Actual revenue, profits and production were down very slightly compared to 2019 but the brand still ended the
year in profit. Profits were adversely affected by higher depreciation and amortization charges, one-off expenses for
restructuring measures and exchange rate effects.

BMW
BMW had a very successful 2017, with a surge in revenue and profits from high-margin sales (mainly in the SUV sectors,
e.g. the X5 model). However, 2018 saw automotive profits fall by 21.6%, albeit that the profit was still healthy. Sales in
Europe fell, but worldwide they increased, and revenue was stable. Profit margins fell, mainly because of higher investment
in electric cars and adverse currency exchange rates. Profits continued to fall in 2019, even though revenue and
registrations increased. With the aim of counteracting the challenges that are facing the whole automotive industry and
to prevent further erosion of profits, cost cutting exercises were put in place, including the reduction of product portfolio
variants and the cancellation of any successor to the BMW 3 Series Gran Turismo.

Following the industry trend, profits fell in 2020, dropping by 23% even though revenue reduced by only 5%. However, a
strong recovery in China at the end of the year offset the sharp falls in Europe and the US, resulting in profits for the second
half of the year increasing year on year, leaving the company in a good position to begin 2021. Revenue was bolstered by
growth in the upper luxury segment with sales of the 7-Series Sedan and the X7, a sector which earns higher profits per
vehicle than smaller cars.

Mercedes-Benz
BMW's main competitor in the higher-end market is Mercedes-Benz (owned by Daimler), which is the leading marque in
the European luxury sector. However, sales and profits fell in 2018 in line with those of BMW, and for the same reasons.
Sales and revenue increased in 2019 but, overall, profits fell by more than two thirds, far more than expected. Legal costs
relating to the diesel emissions scandal, high investment in electric technology and the fall in sales of diesel cars were cited
as the main reasons for the slump.

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

Mercedes narrowly retained its position as the world’s leading luxury car brand in 2020, but the gap is narrowing and early
indications in 2021 are that BMW is now ahead. After years of German dominance in the Chinese luxury market, there are
also signs that electric companies such as Tesla are now making a serious challenge in the region. However, financially, the
company has withstood the COVID -19 crisis well. Overall revenue for passenger cars was down by 8% in 2020 to €98.58m
and in Europe, its largest market by far, it was also down by 8% to €64.23m. Unit sales decreased by 13%, which impacted
on profit but this was more than offset by a more favourable sales structure, improved pricing and savings from the
introduction of efficiency measures such as shorter working hours during COVID-19, general cost discipline and cash
preservation. At the end of the year, Daimler reported Earnings Before Interest and Tax of €6.6bn, an impressive 53%
increase on the 2019 figure.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi
The initial Renault-Nissan Alliance is the best example of how a joint venture can work to mutual benefit. The two
manufacturers have helped each other through bad times since they forged the agreement in 1999 and, until 2019, both
were in a position of growth, even in Europe. In 1999, Renault also purchased the struggling Romanian company Dacia,
giving the business a presence in Eastern Europe, then, in autumn 2016, Nissan bought a large share of struggling
Mitsubishi, aiming to turn it into an asset for a new three-part alliance.

Renault's sales, market share and profits grew continuously between 2015 and 2018, driven by the successful launch of the
new Kadjar and other similar small SUV vehicles such as the Dacia Duster. It was later helped by the stabilization of the
Russian and Brazilian markets where the Alliance is the market leader. For the first time in the history of the alliance,
Renault reported a higher profit than Nissan in 2018. Nissan suffered from sliding profitability, a fall in sales because of an
aging product portfolio, higher than usual warranty costs in the US and a strong Yen. The manufacturer’s reputation was
also hit by the arrest of its Chairman for malpractice, as well as evidence that emissions tests had been falsified at its
Japanese factories.

Problems continued into 2019, with the scandal of the former Nissan Chairman continuing, and then the outbreak of
coronavirus in China at the end of the year. Sales and profits at Nissan plummeted in 2019 and its contribution to the
alliance fell by 85%. This impacted strongly on overall performance as this drop, coupled with plunging margins, resulted
in profits falling by 99%, its worst performance for 10 years. Renault sales were also affected by its withdrawal from the
Iranian market in 2018, a fall in diesel sales and the policy to move away from discounted fleet sales to the more profitable
open market.

It was hoped that the appointment of a new Chairman and a strengthened Board of Directors at Nissan in 2019, together
with the launch of new products, would improve the situation but, primarily because of the impact of the pandemic, this
did not materialise. In 2020, unit sales at Renault fell by 2.13% to 2.95m, while Nissan’s sales fell by 22% to 4.03m. The
Alliance saw revenues fall by 21.72% and the small net profit achieved in 2019 negated to a loss of €8,046m. The loss at
Nissan far outweighed that of Renault (-€4,970m compared to -€482m). On a positive note, the Renault brand doubled its
sales of electric vehicles in the European market, consolidating its position as market leader in the sector. ZOE was the
best-selling electric car with 114% growth at 100,815 units, taking the lead from Tesla Model 3, due in part to its longer
range battery. In addition, all EU emissions targets were met so it will not be subject to fines. Sales were more resilient in
the second half of the year, with progress in sales of the more profitable models, and its European market share increased
by 1%.

Stellantis - PSA (Peugeot Citroen) and Fiat Chrysler

On the 16th January 2021 the 50-50 merger of PSA and Fiat Chrysler was finalised to form Stellantis, which is now the fourth
largest car manufacturer in the world by sales volume, behind the Volkswagen Group, Toyota, and the Renault-
Nissan Alliance. It will also become the third largest by revenue. Stellantis will encompass 14 brands, including FCA’s Fiat,
Maserati, Jeep, Dodge and Ram, as well as PSA’s Peugeot, Citroen, Opel/Vauxhall and DS Automobiles.

The merger will give PSA access to American markets and potentially provide Fiat with access to PSA’s newer electrified
technology. It will also provide the opportunity for shared research projects in the future. PSA had been planning to move
back into the US market by 2026 but this is now likely to be put on hold, as Fiat already has a large presence there. However,
if the US roles out any emissions legislation, then PSA is likely to share technology with Fiat to meet that demand. Currently,
80% of PSA’s market is in Europe.

For 2020, while negotiations were still taking place, the companies reported separate financial results for the two brands.

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PSA (Peugeot Citroen) finally moved into profitability in 2014, for the first time in three years, albeit at a low level, as the
company began to focus on profit margins rather than sales. The strategy worked and profits increased at a higher rate in
2015, doubled in 2016, rose by 11.5% in 2017 (despite the burden of purchasing a loss-making Opel/Vauxhall brand from
GM during the year), 19% in 2018 and 13.2% in 2019. Revenue has also increased year on year, although it slowed to 1%
in 2019 as sales volume fell.

The initial turnaround was achieved by closing factories, cutting jobs and limiting the budget for new models, while
increasing prices and deliberately cutting market share in Europe by focussing on the higher value, more profitable cars, in
particular SUVs, and cutting the low profit-margin models. The increase in sales has come mainly from the Peugeot 3008
and 5008 SUVs. Interestingly, PSA was less affected by the new emission laws than many of its competitors.

Although initially impacting negatively on profit, the Opel/Vauxhall acquisition in 2017 resulted in growth in revenue. The
same management principles used in PSA were implemented in Opel/Vauxhall, with the result that the marque returned
to profitability in 2018, for the first time since 1999. In 2019, the joint brand made a significant contribution to PSA’s profit
and the 6.5% profit margin achieved.

In the first half of 2020, PSA saw revenue fall by 34.5% but still managed to return a profit, albeit nearly 67% lower than in
the same period in 2019, an excellent achievement. Full year results showed a fall in revenue of 18.73% to €60,734m, in
Europe the fall was 20.48% to €46,722m. Net profits decreased by 43.58% from €3,584m in 2019 to €2,022m. Unit sales
fell by 27.8% to 2.5m (-30.3% to 1.72m in Europe), but market share increased marginally in all regions of the world. The
Group met all CO2 targets set by the EU, partly because of strong sales of its electric models. There are 17 hybrid or fully
electric models in its portfolio and another six will be launched in 2021. Online selling of some brands is another focus for
the Group. In 2020, 40,000 vehicles were sold online and the target is 100,000 online sales in Europe in 2021. The Citroen
Ami is only available online.

PSA also has an alliance with the Chinese company Dongfeng, established to build cars and expand its market in Asia.
Dongfeng reduced its stake in PSA so that PSA-FCA merger could progress smoothly (Dongfeng now holds a 4.5% stake in
Stellantis). The PSA-Dongfeng partnership is still split-50-50. Initially the alliance was successful, with Peugeot sales in
China exceeding those in Europe. However, the continuous growth expected did not happen; sales reached a high in 2015
but plummeted in 2017 and by 2019 were a tenth of the 1m target set a few years before. The lack of sales has been
attributed to the fact that the French designs fail to meet the requirements of the Chinese market. Losses have mounted
and the situation has been worsened by the US-China trade war. Both companies are striving to make the alliance work.
In an attempt to improve profitability, there are plans to halve the workforce at the manufacturing headquarters at Wuhan
and to close two other manufacturing plants. The investment from Dongfeng has contributed positively to PSA’s
development of advanced technology and hybrid engines. PSA also has a joint venture with Changan Automobile, which
builds and markets the up-market DS product line.

Fiat Chrysler (FCA) saw a fall in overall profits in 2014 but, remarkably, the European Division returned a profit for the first
time in many years. The profit was very small but was indicative of a company that was being “turned around”, forged by
a change in policy to increase sales margins, which had been historically low compared to other manufacturers. The growth
continued, and in 2016, although sales worldwide fell (particularly in North America), profits increased, and in the difficult
European market the number of sales increased by a relatively small amount but profits more than doubled. 2017 brought
more success for the company, with market share increasing and profits rising in all areas of the business, thanks to
increased sales of SUVs and the higher margin luxury vehicles. 2018 once again saw an increase in both revenue and profits
but at a much slower rate than in the previous few years. 2019 saw sales, revenue and profits fall very slightly because of
declining performance outside of North America. Revenue, market share and profits all fell in Europe. Overall, the
company's debt was halved in 2017 and reduced again in 2018 but not to the extent predicted.

In 2020, revenue fell by nearly 20% to €86,676m and net profits plummeted from €6,630m to €24m. Unit sales fell by 24%
to 3.25m globally (-25.8% to less than 700,000 in Europe). The company is also being investigated for fraudulent use of
devices to mask engine emissions during tests, which could prove very costly. This follows their attempt to avoid failing
overall emissions percentages by purchasing a large amount of Tesla vehicles for hundreds of millions of Euros to add their
pool of cars, thereby offsetting the Tesla emissions against those of the FCA vehicles.

It is hoped that the merger with PSA will boost the recovery plan, particularly in Europe, specifically in relation to the
sharing of electric technology.

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Ford
Worldwide, Ford has seen a trend of small increases in revenue for the past four years but profits have fluctuated
considerably, ending with a 50% drop in 2018 compared to 2017, but on a par with 2016. The large fall in 2018 has been
attributed to losses in Europe and China. The European market has been in difficulty for some time, although the company
did return to profitability in the region in 2016 and 2017, as a result of cost cutting exercises and the introduction of new
models. 2018 saw revenue fall slightly in Europe as sales fell to less than a million, but profits plummeted significantly,
prompting concern over the long-term prospects for the business. However, a recovery plan was put in place and seemed
to be working, with Ford Europe nearly breaking even in 2019, with a particularly strong 4th quarter (although figures
include commercial vehicles). This was despite a fall in revenue. The turnaround can be attributed to improvements in
efficiency, which included the closure or sale of six manufacturing plants and 12,000 redundancies. This was alongside the
refocusing of the design of existing and new models, e.g. the number of designs and options to be offered on the Fiesta
are to be cut dramatically, in an attempt to cut production costs. Slow selling models are to be removed from the market
completely, including MPVs, and be replaced with more of the better selling and higher margin SUVs that are proving
successful for Ford in Europe. The revamped Focus was the best-selling model for Ford in Europe in 2019, but the extremely
low margins achieved on both the Focus and the popular Fiesta cars are likely to have minimal impact on profits.

In 2020, sales, revenue and profits suffered. Globally, unit retail sales decreased by 18% to 4.5m and in Europe by 31.2%
to 683,354 (974,982 with additional European markets added, a fall of 26.8%), the exception was in China. Revenue
decreased by 18.6% to $127bn globally and by 19.6% in Europe. Post tax profits (net income) showed a deficit both in the
European Division and for the company overall, -$834m and -$1.3bn, respectively, wiping out all the progress made in
Europe in 2019. Losses were also accumulated in China but at lower levels than the previous three years.

However, the picture may not be as gloomy as it appears given that 2020 was an exceptional year. Market share decreased
by a small amount but remained fairly stable, and in Europe the SUV models saw a rise in market share of the sector to
38.1%, an 8.1% increase on 2019. In addition, sales and profits in quarter 4 recovered, with Europe reporting a post-tax
profit, the highest for a quarter in four years. The newly launched Puma has also been very successful. The company has
cash available and is planning to make investment to ensure that by 2026 the company manufactures only hybrid or electric
cars, with the aim of being 100% electric by 2030. The company is predicting that Ford will return to excellent profitability
by the end of 2021.

The future of Ford in Europe is still uncertain but in July 2019, a collaboration agreement was forged with VW for the
development of pick-up trucks, vans and transit vehicles. There is the possibility that this could progress to a joint venture
on the development of self-driving and electric passenger cars. This indicates that there are no immediate plans to leave
the market.

GM
GM ceased manufacturing in Europe when it sold the loss-making Opel and Vauxhall to PSA in November 2017. Any sales
are limited to two imported Cadillac and Chevrolet models, a total of 332 of these were sold in Europe in 2020. Globally,
sales have been consistently declining since 2016, in 2020 were at their lowest level for at least 10 years. However, this
must be put into context as they still achieved sales of 6.83m. Profits were also down on the previous year following the
industry trend.

For all companies, income, and consequently profits, have been supplemented by the provision of financial services and
revenue from commercial vehicle sales.

Pricing and Marketing


With the pressure on sales and profit margins, there is always a need for strong pricing and promotional strategies to
maintain volumes. To restore dwindling margins, there has been strong emphasis amongst automakers to reduce costs
and improve productivity. Companies have also moved to focussing on the production and sale of high margin models,
removing some of the low margin cars from their portfolios.

Any thoughts that the COVID-19 pandemic may result in large discounts being offered are probably unfounded. With
demand likely to outstrip strip supply in 2021, there will be no need to offer such incentives, especially as manufacturers
will be desperate to maximise profits. However, it is possible that some brands may extend/introduce scrappage schemes
that encourage people to trade in pre-2010 cars for more efficient models.

Over recent years manufacturers have also had a change of pricing strategy, setting realistic list prices rather than inflating
them to allow for customer negotiation and cutting some of the aggressive customer-focused marketing campaigns.

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Television has always been the most successful media for advertising for the automotive industry, and still accounts for just
over half of the advertising spend by companies. However, the share is declining slightly year on year, as the share of digital
marketing (the internet, social media, tablets, smart phones) increases, now accounting for nearly 25% of marketing
budgets. In addition, many industry observers are predicting major changes in the retailing of motor vehicles as a result of
the power and influence of digital technology. Online sales are increasing, driven by necessity while car showrooms were
closed for large parts of 2020 and early 2021. Major corporations are already restructuring dealerships in anticipation of
this trend.

Forecast
After a very slow start to 2021, European sales soared in the first four months of the year. However, they were still far less
than in the same period for 2019, which is a more realistic comparison than 2020. It is predicted that sales will recover at
a much faster pace in the second half of the year as the vaccination programme progresses, with the year ending 10% above
the 2020 figures. Restraints on production levels because of the microchip shortage may hamper growth as some buyers
will turn to the second-hand market rather than wait for a new model delivery.

Promoting and sustaining recovery in the car market will vary between European governments and the measures they take
to support car manufacturers, as well as incentives to stimulate growth in the industry. Part of this is the need to boost the
roll out of the electric charging and refuelling infrastructures in all countries. This would stimulate accelerated growth in
the EV market, helping both the industry and the environment.

For the car makers, as always, success will also depend on whether new products are good enough to attract new buyers
and recapture old ones. Strong growth is historically linked with companies launching new models, with the aim of enticing
consumers into purchasing new vehicles. The initial success of the Nissan Qashqai, the Volvo XC40 and the Fiat 500X proves
that this can still be achieved, and the leading manufacturers continue to work on this premise. Recent additions to the
market include the 2021 World Car of the Year, VW’s ID.4, the 2021 European Car of the Year, the Peugeot 208, which is
available with a choice of petrol, diesel or electric engine, and the 2021 Car of the Year, the hybrid Toyota Yaris. The Land
Rover Defender has had a very successful launch, as has the upgraded Mercedes Benz S-Class and the Seat Cupra. Other
new models launched in 2020/21 include the Ford Puma SUV, Hyundai’s Tucson (a rival to the Qashqai), Citroen C4, BMW
iX3 and the Renault Zoe. Audi is planning to launch nine new models over the next two years, the first one being the Audi
E-tron GT. Recent updated designs included the Nissan Juke, with the Qashqai to follow in summer 2021, Jaguar’s E-Pace
and F-Pace and the Vauxhall Mokka. They have all been, or are being, launched with the intention of boosting sales
throughout Europe.

When designing new products, manufacturers have the opportunity to exploit consumer demand in terms of fuel choice
and emission control. Fluctuating fuel prices primarily tend to impact on sales of the large car market. Rises in taxation
levels must also be considered. With emission controls coming to the forefront of legislation in Europe, the big push is to
turn to hybrid and electric engines as the industry standard. However, the charging infrastructure for these vehicles is not
yet fully in place and the cost of the vehicles will be prohibitive for many consumers for some time to come. Therefore,
some manufacturers continue to invest in research into lower emission petrol and diesel engines, alongside the
development of engines powered by alternative fuels. There is also a move to use technology that will supercharge small
engines rather than use large, high fuel consumption, internal combustion engines.

Finally, it should be remembered that when times are difficult, buyers will look for a safe option where reliability is assured,
as is the case with BMW, Mercedes and VW.

These factors show a way forward, but the turmoil caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to take a while to settle.

2. CAR MARKET SECTORS


(Figures in this section relate to the EU27 only and exclude the UK and EFTA countries.)

In Executive, car market sectors are broken down into four main categories : Small, Medium, Large and Luxury. Small
includes the super mini class and all sizes incorporate the choice of SUV and MPV/passenger van designs. Note that there
is sometimes a discrepancy in the segment positioning of some models so figures given here may vary from those published
elsewhere, however, they will be in the same ballpark.

In 2017 the total market in Europe grew to its highest level for ten years and remained flat in 2018. The biggest change in
2018 was the fact that the small sector grew to become larger than the medium sector, for the first time, a trend that
continues to date. This was a result of the continued and spectacular growth of the Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) and
crossover market. Sales of these vehicles have taken market share from all sectors, but primarily the MPV/minivan, small
and medium segments, leaving all smaller than they were previously, but with the small cars showing more resilience to
the impact than the medium. MPVs have been virtually replaced.

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More detailed information on these sectors is provided below.

2.1 Car Sectors within Executive

Small Sector
In 2020, the market share of the mainstream supermini and small cars fell by approximately 1%, to 6.8% and 18.7%,
respectively. Unit sales of both sectors amounted to 2.6m, a market share of 26%. However, the success of small
SUVs/crossovers such as the Renault Captur and Peugeot 2008, with their added space, has more than compensated for
the fall in sales of the mainstream models, adding 16.8% share, to make the small car sector the largest overall.

Medium Sector
This was the dominant sector in the marketplace for many years, but in 2018 sales of traditional hatchbacks began falling
as consumers chose to replace them with small sized SUVs. Sales of hatchbacks fell by 9% in 2018 and a further 5% in 2019,
to 16.9%, but 2020 saw market share maintained at around 18%. The luxury sector of this segment makes up 24.6% of
sales. A significant increase in the sale of medium SUVs, e.g. the Nissan Qashqai and VW Tiguan, continues to stabilise
medium sector sales overall, with a market share of 13.6%. The VW Golf remains the best-selling medium sized car.

Large Sector
The sector can be divided into the family/fleet large car and the executive large car – both saloons. The large saloon car
sector has been under pressure for some time and sales continue to fall quite dramatically year on year, ending 2020 with
a 6.6% market share. The family/fleet cars, e.g. the Ford Mondeo, Skoda Superb and VW Passat, are an attempt by
manufacturers to offer consumers a comfortable car that copies the premium quality offered by the executive class but at
a lower price, however, this is the segment that accounts for most of the decline in sales. The executive luxury segment
remains relatively successful and accounts for 62.3% of large car sales (up from 60.5% in 2019), e.g. the Mercedes-Benz
GLE, BMW 5-Series and Audi A6.

Sales of large SUVs suffered a dip in 2018 but rose again by 12% in 2019, to provide the segment with 2.1% of total market
share and increased again to take 2.6% share in 2020. The BMW X5 maintained its position as best selling large SUV.

Luxury Sector
Luxury cars (excluding super cars) make up a small percentage of the total market but they command a high price with high
margins. Consumers are prepared to pay a premium if the design is right for them. After two years of growth, sales of the
luxury saloon fell by 6.5% in 2018 and suffered a further 4.7% decline in 2019, followed by 29% in 2020. However, in terms
of unit sales, discounting 2020 because of the pandemic and with the exception of 2014, the volume sold in 2016-2019 was
still higher than in each year between 2008 and 2016 so recent market share figures need to be taken in a long-term context.
In addition, share of the total market is consistent at around 2-3%. Historically, the most successful luxury car by far has
been the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which is offered as a saloon, coupé and convertible, but as the model aged sales slipped,
and in 2020 it was superseded in sales by both the BMW 8-Series and 7-Series. However, this may well be short-term as an
updated S-Class has recently been released.

In terms of popularity, six of the top ten best-selling models in Europe in 2020 were from the small car category and four
were from the medium sector, although the Skoda Octavia does fall between an upper medium and large category. One
of the small and one of the medium models were SUV variants.

For the purpose of this market segmentation, the definitions of the car groupings are based primarily on dimensions.
Average price is also a consideration and the relevant prices ranges are given below. However, these are approximate and
can overlap. There will be "top of the range" models that exceed the upper price limit given, as will models that are powered
by alternative fuels, including electric vehicles.

Small : supermini, minis and small; prices up to £27,000, e.g. Ford Fiesta, Renault Clio and Captur, Peugeot 208 and 2008,
Fiat Panda, 500 and 500L, VW Polo, BMW Mini, Toyota Yaris, Opel/Vauxhall Corsa.

Medium : price range £16,500 to £36,000, e.g. Opel/Vauxhall Astra, Ford Focus, VW Golf, Peugeot 308 and 3008, Audi A3
and A4, Range Rover Evoque, BMW 3-Series.

Large : price range £23,500 to £70,000, e.g. VW Passat, BMW 5-Series, Mercedes-Benz C- and E-Class, Jaguar XF, Audi A6.

Luxury : luxury saloons + specialist sports cars + dual-purpose vehicles (e.g. 4WD); price range £50,000 to over £100,000+,
e.g. BMW 7, 8 and M Series, Jaguar XF, Range Rover Velar HE, Discovery and SVAutobiography, Mercedes S-Class, Porsche
911 etc.

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2.2 Designs in Executive


Within each sector, the size of the car is combined with a specific design. Traditionally, small and medium cars are 3/5
door hatchbacks (with a small offering of saloons in the medium class), large cars are saloons, estates or coupés and luxury
cars tend to be saloons and coupés. However, there are also specialist designs that feature across all sectors, namely SUVs,
MPVs/passenger vans, 4x4 and estate cars. The effect of SUVs on the market has already been mentioned above but more
details of this sector and the other designs are given below. In addition, all sizes can be made as a convertible (open roof).

SUVs (Sports Utility Vehicles) (including crossovers)


European demand for SUVs of any size and price showed no signs of slowing in 2020, taking 40% of the total market, rising
to 44% for the first quarter of 2021.

The small SUV market is now the third largest segment in Europe, ahead of medium SUVs/crossovers, with a 16.8% share
of the total market (up from 15.6% in 2019). It is predicted that the small SUV market will see further growth in 2021 to
become the second largest segment.

The best-selling small SUVs in 2020 were the Renault Captur, Dacia Sandero and VW T-Roc. A multitude of new entrants
appeared in 2020 and more are due in 2021. Those predicted to be most successful are the Ford Puma, Audi Q2, Skoda
Kamiq, the VW T-Cross, alongside, the updated T-Roc, the Peugeot 2008, which has already had an impact, and the
facelifted Nissan Juke and Opel/Vauxhall Mokka.

Sales of medium-sized SUVs fell in line with the overall market in 2020, although at the slightly lower rate of 23%. Market
share increased from 15% to 15.76%, consolidating its position as fourth largest segment overall. In 2019, this segment
had doubled in size over the previous three years and tripled over the last eight years. For the second consecutive year,
the VW Tiguan was the market leader, as popularity of the once dominant Nissan Qashqai continued to fall. However, the
Qashqai was the best seller in Q1 and Q4 and with an upgraded model launched in 2021, things could change. Sales of the
Peugeot 3008 took it to third place in this class and in the first quarter of 2021, sales surpassed that of the Qashqai taking
it into second place. At the premium end of this sector, which accounts for 27.5% of the sales (up from 23.4% in 2019),
Volvo’s XC40 superseded the BMW X1 as market leader and the Audi Q3 (including the Sportback) also achieved higher
sales than the X1. Sales of the Volvo XC40 remarkably rose by 34% year on year it ended 2020 as the fourth best-selling
model in the sector, helped by the hybrid and electric versions. In quarter 4 it outsold all models.

Following a decline in the popularity of the large and luxury SUVs over recent years, 2019 brought some recovery, with an
increase in sales of 12% to provide the sector with an overall market share of 2.1%, this was boosted in 2020 to 2.6%.
However, sales are still below their peak of 2006/2007. The premium end of the market is dominant within this segment,
taking 84.4% of all sales. The BMW X5 is the top-selling model, followed by the Mercedes-Benz GLE, the Audi e-tron, and
the Volvo XC-90. Mainstream models within this segment are limited but include the Hyundai Santa Fe, Kia Sorento and
the Ford Edge.

MPVs (Multi-Purpose Vehicles) and Passenger Vans


Both MPVs and passenger vans are designed to provide larger capacity, MPVs will seat 5-7 people and passenger vans from
5 to 15 people. Over the last five years, the fashionable SUV has severely impacted on the once popular MPV market and
on the number of small passenger vans being sold. Larger models still have a place in the marketplace, especially for
commercial use as taxis.

MPVs
Small MPV sales plummeted in 2017 and 2018 by 26% and 48% respectively, and that was with the Fiat 500L and Honda
Jazz being included in this category (these models could arguably be classed as a small SUV and hatchback rather than an
MPV). Traditional small MPVs have now practically disappeared, accounting for less than 1% of the total market (1.5% in
2017 and 2% in 2016). Manufacturers have cut the products from their range and are left selling remaining stock only.

Medium sized MPV sales also continue falling, dropping in 2019, for the fifth consecutive year and again in 2020. Market
share at the end of 2020 was 2.2% compared to 3.1% in 2019, 3.9% in 2018 and 4.8% in 2017. Within this segment, the
premium brands take 37.5% of the share. The VW Touran attracted the highest sales in 2020, followed by the Mercedes-
Benz B-Class, the Renault (Grand) Scenic (highest sales in 2019) and the BMW 2-series Active/Gran Tourer. Sales continued
to fall in Q1 of 2021, with the exception of the electric BMW i3 which had a slight increase on sales compared to 2020,
lifting it to fourth position in the best-selling list, however, classification of this car as an MPV is debateable.

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Large MPVs saw a resurgence in 2016 with sales increasing by a third, but this did not continue; sales in 2017 slumped by
15% and market share fell to 0.8% from 1%. In 2018 sales fell by 30% and the segment accounted for just 0.6% of the total
market, the lowest volume for 20 years. In 2019 the market stablilized and sales increased marginally, but not enough to
improve market share, and the situation was compounded in 2020 as sales plummeted and market share was reduced to
0.4%. The future of large MPVs is not looking healthy as the 7-seat SUVs continue to take large portions of the market
share, despite being less practical and space efficient. There are only six models remaining in this sector, of which the Seat
Alhambra is currently the market leader. Sadly, sales of the Renault Espace, the "original" MPV continue to fall by double
digits. The first quarter of 2021 saw the trend continuing, with the Ford S-Max outselling the Seat Alhambra and the Renault
Espace selling a few more cars than in the same period 2020, but overall sales fell by 41% year on year. Given their
extremely low sales volumes, it is extremely unlikely that manufacturers will continue to invest in renewed models of these
MPVs,

Passenger Vans
There is some dispute as to whether some of the models in this category should be classified as MPVs, e.g. the Vauxhall
Combo Life, so for the purposes of the simulation the two sectors are put together as one design offering.

The passenger van sector comprised 56% small/medium sized and 44% large passenger vans in 2020. Q1 2021, the split
was 52.8% and47.2%. Sales fell year on year by 11% but, overall, this is a stable market.

Small/medium passenger vans had 2.07% of overall market share in 2020. The best-selling model was the VW Caddy Life,
as in 2019, but sales of the Peugeot Rifter placed it a very close second. The Citroen Berlingo Multispace and Dacia Dokker
were also popular. Q1 of 2021 saw the mid-life Rifter fall to third place, but it is highly likely that this will soon be
rejuvenated with an electric engine.

Large passenger vans (some of which are referred to as MPVs) had a 1.6% share of the total market for the year. VW and
Mercedes-Benz dominated the segment, sales of the VW Transporter and its luxury derivative the Multivan made up nearly
one third of the sales and the Mercedes Benz V-Class and Vito Tourer 25.9%. Mercedes-Benz has recently launched an
electric version of the V-Class, called EQV, which could give stimulate new sales, although early indications in 2021 are not
positive. Other examples include the Ford Tourneo Custom, Renault’s Trafic Passenger and the new Opel/Vauxhall Zafira
Life, a newly launched model that has been well received in the marketplace.

PSA and Toyota work together in a commercial vehicle field and some of the shared technology will be passed on to
passenger vans. PSA has recently added electric versions to its entire passenger van portfolio and Toyota is shortly to
follow with the Proace City Verso Electric. The Stellantis Group are also planning electric versions for their Citroen and
Opel/Vauxhall models.

4 x4 (off roaders)
Traditionally, 4x4 vehicles were considered to be luxury vehicles or simply utilitarian. However, the 4x4 facility is now
generally incorporated into SUV models and, as a standalone sector, is reduced to the specialist G-Series from Mercedes
Benz, the Suzuki Jimny (which is also classed as a small SUV) and the new Land Rover Defender. Sales of the G-Series have
increased year on year and reached 8,682 in 2019, however, the biggest markets are Russia and China. Sales of the Jiminy
have fluctuated, reaching their highest level since 2010 in 2019, at 16,605. The Land Rover Defender, the original 4x4
vehicle, was taken out of production at the beginning of 2016 because the company feared that it could not be adapted to
meet the strict legislation on emissions that was to be imposed in 2020. A newly designed version of the vehicle was
launched at the end of 2019 and sales in 2020 were encouraging, given the overall downturn in the global marketplace.
The two leading markets for the vehicle are the UK and the US, with sales in the US of the 5-door Defender 110 outstripping
those in the UK by 2:1. Early figures for 2021 suggest that its popularity will continue, but it is too soon to have any sales
data. The design is such that it will also be classed as a luxury SUV and there is evidence that it may diminish sales of the
Land Rover Discovery. There is a "pure" 4x4 vehicle, the Grenadier, in the design stage at Ineos. The company hopes to
begin production of the new vehicle at the end of 2021.

Other derivatives that could be classified as 4x4s are the Jeep Gladiator and Ford Ranger Raptor, both pick-up trucks that
have been brought to Europe from the USA.

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Historical sales of 4x4s are summarised below (these figures exclude SUVs as they have a sector of their own).

4x4 Market Share (Europe)


16.0

14.0
% of total market share

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Estate Cars
Estate cars are not as popular as they used to be before the arrival of the SUV sector but they have had a small revival over
recent years, attracting buyers who want a larger capacity vehicle but with a car-driving experience. Manufacturers have
made them more attractive by supplementing the extra space with increased performance, improving style and offering a
lot of practical features such as a level boot floor, low boot lips, electrically opening tailgates, under-floor storage, boot
dividers and retractable tow bars, to name just a few. They are designed to make their owners’ lives easier, without losing
style

Popular Estate derivatives of mainstream cars include the BMW 5-Series Touring, Skoda Superb Estate, Ford Focus Estate,
Audi A6 Avant, Mercedes E-Class, Volvo V90, Peugeot 508 SW, VW Passat and the Jaguar XF Sportbrake.

3. FACTS AND FIGURES

3.1 MARKET SEGMENT SIZES


At the beginning of the simulation the marketplace is divided as follows. However, please note that if taking over a
company that is already operating, this may not be accurate.

Market Sector Sizes in Year 1


Small Medium Large Luxury
e.g. Peugeot 208 e.g. VW Golf e.g. Audi A6 e.g. Jaguar F-Pace
Car Size

Market Size (millions) 5.21 4.82 2.46 0.54

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3.2 TOP TEN BEST SELLING CARS IN EUROPE*


2020
2020 2019 % Position 2021 UK Price
Rank Model
Sales Sales Change In 2019 Range (£)**
1 Volkswagen Golf 312,000 410,330 -24% 1 20,280 – 28,170
2 Renault Clio 248,602 319,136 -22% 2 12,750 – 23,650
3 Peugeot 208 199,316 224,659 -11% 6 17,260 – 32,975
4 Opel/Vauxhall Corsa 198,887 221,630 -10% - 16,815 – 26,700
5 Skoda Octavia 180,902 223,416 -19% 10 17,795 - 26,455
6 Toyota Yaris 179,867 211,216 -15% - 15,805 – 24,010
7 Renault Captur 178,724 224,127 -20% 8 15,735 – 31,345
8 VW Tiguan 176,288 224,890 -22% 5 22,355 – 45,410
9 Ford Focus 173,853 224,401 -23% 9 17,930 – 36,135
10 Volkswagen Polo 169,467 256,259 -34% 3 14,510 – 25,520

* Source for sales statistics : carsalesbase.com and JATO.


** The higher range prices are for cars with a luxury specification or high performance, hybrid or electric engine.

The VW Golf maintained its top position in 2020 but there were times during the year that it lost ground to the newly
launched Renault Clio. The launch of the new Golf Mk8 was delayed by production problems until October 2020, but once
available it took over where the Golf Mk7 left off and there was a surge in sales. However, the first four months of 2021
have seen sales of the Golf exceeded by those of the Peugeot 208, with its attractive styling and starting price (see table
below). Longer term, it is predicted that the biggest competitor to the Golf Mk8 will be the all electric VW Golf ID.3, which
was the second best-selling model in December 2020, followed by the electric Tesla-3. It is likely that as sales of electric
and hybrid vehicles increase, the top ten ranking models will feature new entrants and a lot of movement over the next
few years. The Ford Fiesta and Dacia Sandero dropped out of the top ten table in 2020, moving down to 14th and 11th
respectively. However, the Fiesta is due a major facelift in 2021 that could boost sales towards the end of the year, and an
updated Sandero has recently been launched, with popularity of the model and sales increasing accordingly.

Quarter 1 2021*
Rank Model Unit Sales
1 Peugeot 208 54,870
2 VW Golf 52,456
3 Renault Clio 50,849
4 Toyota Yaris 49,155
5 Citroen C3 45,437
6 Peugeot 2008 45,338
7 Volkswagen Tiguan 43,144
8 Dacia Sandero 42,934
9 Skoda Octavia 42,694
10 Fiat Panda 42,045

It can be seen from this table that the market is currently very open to change and it will be interesting to see how model
trends develop throughout the year, whether it be entrants of hybrid and electric vehicles, updated or new models from
leading manufacturers or just changes in position of the best-selling models from 2020. Interestingly, despite the massive
boom in sales of SUVs in the European market, only two featured in the ten best-selling models in 2020 and three in Q1
2021. The VW Tiguan was popular and the new Peugeot 2008 entered the top 10 for the first time in Q1 2021. The Renault
Captur achieved some success in 2020 but that now seems to be waning. Other SUVs that are still on the edge of the top
ten are the Dacia Sandero (8th in Q1 2021) and the VW T-Roc, positioned 12th in 2020. Nissan will be hoping for a resurgence
of the once immensely popular Qashqai when the updated model comes to market in 2021.

Of note is the absence of any large models in the top 10 best-selling cars. Any hope that a relaunch of the once popular
VW Passat would see a revival of the model did not come to fruition but it did improve on its 2019 position, finishing 21st.

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3.3 TOTAL NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS IN EUROPE


18
17
REGISTRATIONS (MILLIONS)

16
TOTAL NO. OF NEW

15
14
13
12
11
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
3.4 NEW REGISTRATION OF PASSENGER CARS IN THE TOP TEN MARKETS IN EUROPE (in millions)

% change
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019-20

Germany 3.15 3.09 3.81 2.92 3.17 3.08 2.95 3.04 3.21 3.35 3.441 3.435 3.611 2.918 -19.19

France 2.01 2.05 2.30 2.25 2.20 1.90 1.79 1.80 1.92 2.02 2.11 2.17 2.21 1.650 -25.34

UK 2.40 2.13 2.00 2.03 1.94 2.05 2.27 2.48 2.63 2.70 2.54 2.367 2.312 1.631 -29.46

Italy 2.50 2.16 2.12 1.96 1.75 1.40 1.30 1.36 1.58 1.83 1.97 1.911 1.918 1.381 -28.00

Spain 1.61 1.16 0.95 0.98 0.81 0.70 0.72 0.86 1.03 1.15 1.24 1.336 1.258 0.851 -32.35

Belgium 0.53 0.54 0.48 0.55 0.57 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.54 0.546 0.549 0.549 0.431 -21.49

Poland 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.35 0.42 0.48 0.531 0.554 0.428 -22.74

Netherlands 0.51 0.50 0.39 0.48 0.56 0.50 0.42 0.39 0.45 0.38 0.42 0.444 0.446 0.358 -19.73

Sweden 0.31 0.25 0.21 0.29 0.31 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.354 0.356 0.292 -17.98

Austria 0.30 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.341 0.329 0.249 -24.32

The most significant change in these sales figures is that France sold more cars than the UK for the first time since 2011.

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3.5 MANUFACTURERS' SALES DETAILS – EUROPE


Total sales figures for the major manufacturing companies are tabulated below (in millions).
Company/
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brand
VW Group 3.17 3.04 2.95 2.94 3.17 3.06 3.05 3.25 3.45 3.57 3.60 3.73 3.78 2.97
Stellantis* 2.05 1.86 1.89 1.84 1.68 1.47 1.35 1.40 1.48 1.47 2.48 2.50 2.47 2.42
Renault-Nissan 1.70 1.62 1.72 1.82 1.76 1.49 1.51 1.71 1.90 2.06 2.18 2.13 2.04 1.51
Korean*** 0.56 0.51 0.60 0.61 0.68 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.85 0.96 0.99 1.04 1.07 0.849
BMW 0.85 0.82 0.71 0.75 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.94 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.05 0.847
GM** 1.65 1.41 1.28 1.19 1.17 1.01 0.97 0.93 0.94 0.99 0.003 0.004 0.003 0.003
Daimler 0.82 0.79 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.84 0.95 1.01 0.97 1.03 0.78
Toyota 0.95 0.78 0.86 0.61 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.57 0.60 0.65 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.69
Ford 1.71 1.46 1.50 1.13 1.09 0.95 0.74 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.68
Volvo**** 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.34 0.30
Suzuki 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.17
Jaguar Land Rover 0.11 0.85 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.23 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.16
Mazda 0.24 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.26 0.15
Mitsubishi 0.009 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.10
Tesla 0.03 0.11 0.09
Honda 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.19 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.08
Fiat 1.25 1.18 1.26 1.04 0.95 0.80 0.74 0.77 0.87 0.99 1.05 1.02 0.95 -

* The Stellantis figures in 2020 represent sales from : Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroen, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia,
Maserati, Opel/Vauxhall and Peugeot. 2017-2019 comprises Peugeot, Citroen, DS and Opel/Vauxhall; pre-2017
figures are for Peugeot, Citroen and DS.
** GM comprises only Chevrolet and some small marques in 2017. Prior to that Opel/Vauxhall was included.
*** Korean = Hyundai, Kia and a small number from Ssangyong
**** Volvo figures included in Ford until 2010

These are figures for the companies as a whole. Figures for the most popular brands are as follows.

3.6 Top Ten Brands in Europe


2020
Variation on Year from
Rank Brand 2020 Sales 2019
Sales Position
1 Volkswagen 1,343,507 -23.88% 1
2 Renault 817,446 -23.18% 2
3 Mercedes-Benz 749,113 -18.13% 5
4 Peugeot 741,382 -23.17% 4
5 Ford 683,353 -31.2% 3
6 BMW 674,468 -18.74% 6
7 Toyota 645,214 -12.76% 10
8 Skoda 642,654 -15.48% 8
9 Audi 599,894 -19.16% 9
10 Fiat 491,097 -25.15% -

The biggest movement in rank order in 2020 were Mercedes-Benz moving from 5th to 3rd, at the expense of Ford, and
Toyota moving up from 10th to 7th. Of most significance was the loss of sales at Opel/Vauxhall, who were positioned 7th in
2019, and the entrance of Fiat into the top ten, despite the brand’s large drop in sales. Opel/Vauxhall was the 11th best-
selling brand.

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

With its extensive number of models that accommodate the requirements of a wide customer base, VW easily maintained
its long-term hold on the market. However, 2020 was a very unusual year and 2021 could well see movement in the
popularity of many of the leading brands. Sales for the first quarter of 2021 are given in the following table.

Quarter 1 of 2021
Variation on Year from
Rank Brand Q1/2021 Q1/2020 2020 Q1

% Change Position

1 Volkswagen 331,355 353,056 -6.1 1

2 Peugeot 215,470 186,173 15.7 2

3 Toyota 183,069 171,811 6.6 6

4 BMW 182,401 174,566 4.5 5

5 Mercedes-Benz 180,928 201,303 -10.1 4

6 Renault 170,612 184,330 -7.4 3

7 Skoda 162,604 164,030 -0.9 7

8 Ford 157,849 160,808 -1.8 8

9 Audi 155,531 160,819 -3.3 9

10 Opel/Vauxhall 132,862 134,334 -1.1 10

Lockdown measures were still in place in many European during the quarter so the percentage increases and decreases do
not give a true reflection of what will happen as things return to “normal”. However, the rankings are nearer to what
would usually be expected, perhaps with the exception of the notable results at Toyota and the decline at Renault.

3.7 MANUFACTURERS' MARKET SHARE


The European market share (2007-2020) for each of the top 14 car manufacturers is given on the following graphs.

28
26
24
22
% Market Share

20 VW
18
16 Renault-Nissan
14
12
10 Stellantis
8
6
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Daimler (including
7 Mercedes)
% Market Share

BMW
6

5
Korean

3
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

15 Ford*
% Market Share

Toyota
10

GM**
5

Fiat 2007-2019. Included in


0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
Stellantis from 2020.

 2007 figures include Ford, Jaguar, Land Rover & Volvo. 2008 &2009 comprise Ford & Volvo.
From 2010 onwards figures are for Ford only.
 Prior to 2017 GM figures included Opel/Vauxhall. Market share from 2017 is negligible.

2.5
Honda
% Market Share

2
Mazda
1.5
Suzuki
1 Jaguar Land Rover

0.5 Volvo (from 2010)

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

4. FUEL TYPES FOR PASSENGER CARS IN EUROPE

4.1 DIESEL AND PETROL ENGINES


Diesel engine cars dominated sales in Europe for over 20 years. Sales peaked in 2011 at around 56% market share, but
have been falling since in Europe overall, although there have been some discrepancies between individual countries. In
2020, only 28% of new passenger cars ran on diesel (30.5% in 2019), 47.5% were fuelled by petrol (58.9% in 2019) and
24.5% by alternatively powered fuels (10.6% in 2019). In the last quarter of 2020, nearly one in every six new passenger
cars sold (16.5%) was electrically charged, stimulated by government packages that encouraged growth of this segment.

During the first three months of 2021, the incentives for purchase of APVs continued and diesel vehicles sales fell
to 593,559 , taking the market share down to 23.2%. All countries reported a double digit decline. Registration of petrol-
fuelled cars also fell dramatically, dropping by 16.9% to 1.1m and 42.2% of the total market. France was the only country
where sales of new petrol cars increased (+8.3%).

There were a number of reasons for the previous growth in popularity of diesel-fuelled cars:

 They were superior to petrol-consuming models in terms of fuel efficiency, an advantage that was consolidated by
the introduction of direct-injection car diesel engines and turbo-charging, and then taken forward by Common Rail
technology, invented by Fiat in 1997 and licensed widely.
 A diesel engine is 25% more fuel efficient than an equivalent petrol engine; this directly translates into reductions
in carbon dioxide emissions, a very important factor as increasing global legislation demands lower vehicle and
greenhouse gas emissions.
 Initially, diesel fuel was generally taxed lower than petrol (typically around 20% lower), as an incentive to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions.
 Indirectly, improved efficiency meant that fewer shiploads of petroleum needed to be transported, resulting in less
transportation linked pollution and emissions
 The rise of the diesel car was helped by lower carbon dioxide targets set to reduce air pollution, and tax incentives
on the fuel costs in many EU countries.

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

The downside however was increased NOx and particulates from diesel engines, which brought smog back to some cities.
Warnings from the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2013 about a link between air pollution, caused in part by NOx and
diesel particulates, and cancer has had a major impact. Subsequently, the VW diesel scandal exposed the fact that Nitrogen
Oxide (NOx) emissions were much higher when in "real world" conditions that when under a test environment. This
resulted in new standards being set for NOx testing, as well as damaging the image of VW and Audi in particular, and diesel
cars in general.

Euro emissions restrictions have been set since 1992, to limit the amount of pollutants that enter the air. These have been
primarily aimed at diesel engines and have been revised over the years. In some cities around Europe, those diesel cars
that were manufactured before a specified set emission laws have been banned or restricted to certain time zones, e.g.
certain parts of Milan only allow cars that meet Euro 5 regulations (set in 2009) to enter between 8.30 and 18.30. The
latest set of laws is Euro 6, set in 2015. Vehicles that are on the road that do not meet the latest requirements have been
subject to tax increases in some countries.

The overall aim is to make Europe carbon emission-free by 2050. To reach this target, governments throughout Europe
are planning to ban the manufacture of new petrol and diesel cars within the next 20 years, and phasing out those that are
already on the road. The earliest enforcement of a ban will be in Norway in 2025, followed by the UK and Denmark in
2030. The EU is to make a decision later in 2021 as to when a ban will be imposed in member countries and there is great
support from city dwellers to also make this 2030, even though the consensus of manufacturers is that it should be 2035.
In the meantime, the proposed EURO 7 legislation on emissions which will be agreed upon in 2025 and come into force in
2030, is likely to lay out such stringent rules for Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) that it will be no longer financially viable
for manufacturers to continue producing them. From 2035, the manufacture of new hybrid and PHEVs will also be
prohibited.

It should be noted that diesel engine technology has evolved dramatically in recent years to limit air pollutants and reduce
CO2 emissions. In reality, the new cleaner diesel cars combine increased fuel economy with near zero emissions. In the
long-term, they could be a very cost-effective way of reducing transport pollution but the initial investment needed in the
new technology, and the measures required to meet new emissions rules, will progressively increase the cost of producing
diesel engines and, in turn, will increase the retail price of diesel models. This will make the total cost of ownership of
diesels less competitive than currently (at the moment, a diesel car becomes less expensive to run than its petrol rivals
after as little as 30,000 km).

As a result of the emissions problems with diesel engines, until very recently, petrol engines were taking the lost diesel
market share, with their lower manufacturing costs, the significant improvements in fuel consumption being achieved and
their low NOx emissions. In addition, historically, petrol was more expensive for consumers to purchase than diesel but in
recent years that has reversed. However, the trend halted in 2020, with both diesel and petrol losing sales to the alternative
fuel market. It must be remembered that the traditional fuel market still accounted for 75.5% of all new sales in 2020 so,
for now, is still the dominant sector.

4.2 ALTERNATIVE FUELS


As the World becomes increasingly conscious of protecting the environment and as oil resources decrease, there has, for
many years, been a great deal of research into the use of alternative fuels for vehicles. Initially, the main fuel alternatives
to come to market were propane, ethanol or natural gas, with electric research being in its infancy. Until a few years ago,
developments were not advanced enough to make any of the options serious, practical solutions for the consumer.
However, things have now changed as technology rapidly improves and all car manufacturers are making investment into
development of the various forms of electric/battery powered vehicles. As electric cars become a reality, use of the original
alternative fuels is falling.

In 2020, Alternatively Powered Vehicles (APVs) took 24.5% of the market, up from 10.6% in 2019. The biggest growth was
in the PHEV market (see below) at +210%, followed by a 107% increase in the registration of the relatively small BEV sector.
The sale of the popular HEVs grew by 51.3%. Sales growth of vehicles powered by alternative fuels other than electric fell
by 18.2%. The overall total of electrically-chargeable vehicles sold (all categories) rose by 70.5%. Although the APV market
still only has 25% of the whole, the huge percentage increases indicate that this is not likely to change in the relatively short-
term, even though growth is likely to be slower. This is reinforced by the fact that all leading manufacturers are now
introducing electric or hybrid engine models into their portfolio, some are even planning to make all new models available
with the option of an electric or hybrid engine.

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

Types of Electric Car


Electric vehicles come in a variety of forms and, as a group, are generally referred to as Electrically Chargeable
Vehicles (ECVs). The industry broadly categorises ECVs into the following segments but as technology is still emerging,
others may evolve.

 Electric Vehicles (EVs) or Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) : all electric vehicles that have no other energy source other
than the battery. The battery stores the energy to power the motor and is re-charged by plugging the vehicle into an
electric power source.

 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) : powered by an internal combustion engine that runs on conventional or alternative
fuel plus an electric motor that uses energy stored in a battery. The battery is charged through regenerative braking
and by the internal combustion engine and is not plugged in to charge. The extra power provided by the electric motor
allows for a smaller engine without sacrificing performance; the battery also powers extra loads such as audio and
headlights. Some vehicles can drive on the battery alone but only for very short distances.

 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) : also powered by an internal combustion engine and a battery but differs from
an HEV in that the battery is the main source of energy. The battery is re-charged by plugging it into the grid via an
external electric power source so is not reliant on running the engine for use (although some energy from regenerative
braking may also be incorporated). PHEVs can run on battery alone for longer than HEVs as they have larger battery
packs. The distance is still relatively short, at between 28 and 54 miles depending on the model, but is more than
double the amount that can be achieved by an HEV. While it has energy, the battery powers the car alone and when
it is nearly empty, the engine takes over. The engine will also automatically kick-in during rapid acceleration, at high
speeds and when intensive heating or air conditioning is required. Some types of PHEVs are also called extended range
electric vehicles (EREVs).

Latest figures for Alternatively Powered Vehicle Registrations


In 2020, APV registrations in Europe rose year on year by 70.5%, taking the total to 3.02m, this was the biggest annual
increase for five years. Sales were divided between the APV categories as shown in the chart below. ECV figures include
BEVs, PHEVs, EREVs (electric range-extended vehicles) and FCEVs (fuel cell electric vehicles), but exclude HEVs :

 Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) : 745,684 (107% increase)


 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) : 619,129 (210% increase)
 Total Electrically Chargeable Vehicles (ECVs) : 1,364,813 (143.8% increase) – includes BEVs, PHEVs, EREVs & FCEVs
 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) : 1,447,973 (51.3% increase)
 Other Fuels : Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)/propane, Natural Gas (NGV) or bioethanol : 208,976 (-18.2%)

APV Registrations by Type 2015-2020


1,500,000
2015
1,250,000
1,000,000 2016

750,000 2017

500,000 2018

250,000 2019

0 2020
BEVs PHEVs Total ECVs HEVs Other Fuels

Total APV Registrations 2015-2020


3,050,000

2,550,000

2,050,000

1,550,000

1,050,000

550,000

50,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Executive Business Simulation Market Research

APV Registrations First Quarter 2017-2021


1,750,000
1,500,000 Q1 2017
1,250,000 Q1 2018
1,000,000 Q1 2019
750,000
Q1 2020
500,000
Q1 2021
250,000
0
BEVs PHEVs Total ECVs HEVs Other Fuels TOTAL APVs

Interestingly, vehicles fuelled by non-electric alternatives, increased in Q1 2021 after a decline in 2020. Demand for cars
fuelled by natural gas increased in Italy but declined in Europe overall. However, sales of LPG-fuelled cars almost doubled
(+92.7%), mainly due to a huge increase in sales in France.

Unlike sales figures, the overall trend in fuel choice is unlikely to be directly affected by the COVID-19 situation, but it will
be influenced by the incentives offered by governments to encourage purchase of alternative fuel vehicles rather than
opting for petrol of diesel. New sales during the COVID-19 pandemic were limited and therefore, those who did decide to
purchase a new car may have done so because of the grants and tax rebates that were being offered to purchase not only
a new electrically charged vehicle, but also to install charging points at their homes. It remains to be seen if the large
percentage increases in sales continue once the market is fully open again.

4.3 Predictions for electric vehicles


The future of the fully electric car depends very much on the development of longer-range and cheaper batteries. Battery
life is now up to 300km for some models and is increasing as manufacturers invest heavily in improving the technology.
Batteries are expected to reduce in price over the next few years, which is key to making the production of electric cars
more viable for manufacturers. It is predicted that the cost of making an electric car will be less than one run on
conventional fuels by 2026 (an optimistic forecast is 2024) and that, by then, the retail price of both options will then be
equivalent. Furthermore, it is thought that an electric car will cost the consumer less than a petrol vehicle by 2030.

It is predicted that sales of BEVs will reach 1 million in 2021, to give an estimated market share of 8.5%, but that growth will
slow once the market is fully open post-COVID and the microchip shortage eases. Growth is expected to accelerate again
in 2025, prompted by the EURO 7 legislation, taking the market share to between 13% and 19%. The EU's standards require
2.3m ECVs to be sold in the EU in 2025 and at least 5m in 2030 (or 15% or total car sales). It is currently thought that these
numbers will be exceeded and that ECV car production will reach 22% of the total car market by 2030.

In the longer term, opinions vary from country to country on the timescale for complete conversion to electric vehicles in
Europe. Some predict that all vehicles will be electrically powered as early as 2035 and others as late as 2050. The speed
of growth will depend on falling battery costs, government legislation and the installation of the supporting infrastructure
for electric vehicles that will have to be provided by utility suppliers and governments. The provision of the charging
infrastructure is of particular concern. Governments are promising huge investment for its expansion, but it is a major
challenge. There is also concern about the facilities required to recycle electric batteries, which is currently limited, as well
as the possible shortage of the raw materials, like lithium and certain rare earth elements, that are used to make these
batteries.

At the moment, the only alternative to electric as a means of powering vehicles without pollutants, is hydrogen fuel-celled
systems. These have the advantage of refuelling in a few minutes rather than the relatively long time taken to charge an
electric battery. Long-term this could make them the preferred option, but for now, the hydrogen charging units are much
more expensive to install than electric charging units, plus electric batteries are more energy efficient. A lot more research
and development is needed to bring them to market on a large scale.

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