2IC503-MACHINE LEARNING

RESEARCH PAPER

Survival Prediction Among Heart patients using machine Learning Techniques

Submitted To:-
Professor (Phd)
Dr. Ankit Sharma
Professor Electronics and Instrumentation Engineering
Institute Of Technology
Nirma University

SUBMITTED BY:-
21BIC503 | NEEL PATEL
20BIC047 | SHYAM GUPTA
Abstract:
The main aim of this project heart diseases kills approximately 17 million people globally every year, and the
main reason is heart failure. So that's the researcher focus on this side and reduce the death ratio. These works
focused on a various of issues such as finding important features to effectively predict the occurrence of heart-
related diseases to calculate the survival probability. After some research we get best method that decision tree
method is better than logistic regression, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks feature ranking.
The decision tree archive 14% better accuracy than other method.

Introduction
The reason of heart failure is heart is not sufficient pumping blood. Due to this reason blood can’t proper
circulate in body. Then researcher introduce machine learning technique and deep neural networks are used in
predicting heart failure survival prediction. Then researcher used a machine learning technique. Then here we
use many algorithms like that logistic regression, Support vector machine, decision tree, Artificial neural
networks, feature ranking. All deep discussion in next page.

Dataset
Here we use 299 patients dataset. The disease the patients was identified the use of Cardiac Echo reports and
follow up meeting were arranged with patients with an a 130 days. And the gender distribution of data in 195
male and 105 female. And all the patients age were over 40 years. The dataset made of 12 features which
includes age, anemia, blood pressure, Creatinine Phosphokinase, diabetes, Ejection Fraction, gender, platelets,
serum creatinine, serum sodium and smoking. The target variable is named DEATH EVENT which is a binary
variable expressing the survival outcome. Of the feature variables, age, Creatinine Phosphokinase, and serum
sodium are continuous variables whereas ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and platelets are categorical
variables. Gender, diabetes, anemia, blood pressure, and smoking are considered binary variables.

• After this we use selected machine learning methods and analysis focuses on the binary prediction of
the survival of the patients in the follow-up period. And to predict patients survival and apply different
method.
Here we use feature ranking results.
• And here we use some biostatistics test. First test is Mann-Whitney test is between each feature and the
target feature death event.
• After take the test we derive the condition on Serum creatinine and ejection fraction linear separability.
To verify further the predictive power of serum creatinine and ejection fraction, we depicted a
scatterplot with the serum creatinine values on the x axis and the ejection fraction values on the y axis,
and we coloured every patient point based on survival status. This plot shows a clear distinction
between alive patients and dead patients, that we highlighted by manually inserting a black straight
line.

• Follow-up time and survival then we analyse the reason of surviving patients and discuss patients for
each month and then we create bar plot of surviving patients to each follow up months. This plot shows
that it is impossible to correlate the survival of patients to the follow-up month because the survival
trend is not linear: the month 5, in fact, reports less surviving patients than month 4 and month 6.
 • Survival prediction including follow-up time.
• we notice no linear correlation between follow-up month and survival, we decided to repeat the
survival prediction analysis and the feature ranking analysis by including this feature, and to explore
the relevance of ejection fraction and serum creatinine in the case. And then we applied stratified
logistic regression feature ranking.

Conclusion:-
After doing this work our paper we use biostatistics analysis ejection fraction and serum creatinine as the most
relevant features confirmed the relevance of the feature ranking executed with machine learning. Moreover, our
approach showed that machine learning can be used effectively for binary classification of electronic health
records of patients with cardiovascular hearth diseases.
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