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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

Modelling Background Seismicity Source For Probabilistic

Seismic Hazard Analysis In Manado City, North Sulawesi

M.Zulkifli1,3, Wahyu Triyoso2

1
Earth Sciences Graduate Program, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology,
Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia.
2
Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering,
Bandung Institute of Technology,Bandung, Indonesia.
3
Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG), Manado,Indonesia.

e-mail : zulkifligeoph45@gmail.com

Abstract.This study is used a background source model to calculate probabilistic seismic

hazard analysis (PSHA) in Manado City. The gridded seismicity model is applied to
characterize the background source model based on the seismicity rate on each grid 0.1 x 0.1
degrees. The results obtained from this study was the contribution of background sources for
PSHA in Manado City for the probability of excedence 10% in 50 years is 0.18 ≥ g ≤ 0.19.

1. Introduction
Manado City is relatively the densest population in North Sulawesi Province and one of the economic
centers in Eastern Indonesia due to it is a supply chain in the trade and tourism sector. [1].
Seismotectonically, this city has the potential to be impacted by earthquake due to it is located in a
seismically active area. The Regional tectonic interactions such as divergent double subduction (DDS)
activity of the Molucca Sea Plate [2], North Sulawesi trench [3], and active faults as earthquake
generators. Therefore, the area to have high seismicity.
The earthquake occured in March 2021 Mw 4.3 hypocenter in land at a depth of 10 km was felt III-
IV MMI in Manado City. The source of this earthquake was identified as a background source due to
it unclear seismogenic, not from subduction or fault. This event showed that the contribution of the
earthquake from the background source affects the ground shaking in the Manado city.
Manado City has been shaked by destructive earthquakes several times based on Records of past
events were sourced from the BMKG catalog in 2018 (Table 1) [4]. The 2014 Mw 7.4 earthquake,
This earthquake was reported to have damaged several houses, hotels and bridges. The 1997 Mw 7.0
earthquake, recorded 90 damaged buildings in Manado City and several other significant earthquakes
that have been well documented. However, the challenges faced today is earthquake cannot be
predicted accurately, destructive, and fatality.
As an effort to reduce risk, earthquake-resistant building designs are designed with the aim of be
able to withstand ground shaking without causing excessive damage [5]. Seismic hazard analysis
(SHA) is one of the ideal standard methods to calculate the magnitude of the ground shaking level
(PGA) due to earthquakes as well as a reference for estimating the risk of loss in an infrastructure
dwelling [6].
The previous study, the 2017 National Earthquake Study Center (PUSGEN) [7] has released source
and hazard maps in Indonesia. However, the results of the study was limited to a regional scale. PSHA

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

microzonation (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) needs to be done to show in more detail the
potential for local scale seismic hazard. We use the PSHA method in this study to extend how the
background source contributes to produce ground shaking (PGA) in Manado City.

Table 1. History of destructive earthquakes in Manado City

Source Year Mw Damage
Light- moderate damage to several
Molucca sea 2014 7.3 hotels and hospitals in Manado
City, the Mahakam bridge in
Manado cracked
Molucca sea 2001 7.1 Manado: masonry buildings and
houses collapsed
Molucca sea 1998 6.5 fatality:
- 7 people
Injured victims:
- 18 people
Minahasa 1997 7.0 90 buildings damaged in Manado

North Sulawesi 1988 5.2 fatality : 1 person

Trench Injured : Several people
Damage: Many houses,
government buildings, and
other buildings badly damaged

2. Methods And Materials

The data was used in this study is a combined earthquake catalogues from the BMKG (Agency for
Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics) and ISC (International Seismological Center) in given
period 1907 to 2020 at geographical coordinates 0.3° South Latitude and 118 North Latitude. °BT-
129°E. The catalog was declustered using the Zmap software [8], this process aims to separate the
mainshock from of aftershocks. The number of earthquakes with a constant earthquake rate from the
decluster results was 3832 events in the range of 4.5 ≥ Mw ≤ 7.9 (figure 1).
Furthermore, Frankel's algorithm was integrated [9] to characterized background sources based on
seismcity rate (10 𝐴 value )on a grid size of 0.10 x 0.10 degrees, as has been done by other researchers
such as Triyoso et al [10]. The PSHA model was implemented to calculate the distribution of PGA in
bedrock Manado City a probability of passing 10% in 50 years with a 500 year returns period.

2.1. Background source (gridded seismicity)

In this study, the model was used for the background source is a gridded model, based on the
earthquake rate on a spatially smoothed grid size of 0.1 x 0.1 degrees [9]. According to Petersen et al
[12] explained the gridded (smoothed) seismicity model is used to estimate the rate of small to
moderate earthquakes that will occur in the fault area and random earthquakes outside the fault. This
method uses an analysis of normalized earthquake events on a predetermined grid to calculate the
seismic probability. As described in Triyoso et al research [10], this grid value is then smoothed
spatially by multiplying the Gaussian function with the correlation distance. The result of this process
is the value of the seismicity rate (10 𝐴 value )I n each grid with a size of 0.1 x 0.1 degrees. Which, the
quantity is equivalent to the A value in Gutenberg–Richter equation [13].
This method has a strong justification because it be able represent the character of the earthquake in
a narrow area and avoid subjectivity. This gridded model in the analysis was divided into five depth
intervals, namely: shallow background source (0-50km), and deep background source (50-100 km),
(100-150 km), (150-200 km) and (200-300 km).

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

Figure 1. Plot the distribution of major earthquakes by interval depth.

The source of the earthquake from the BMKG and ISC
catalog for the period 1907-2020. The base map was
obtained from the Esri World Terrain basemap [11]. The
black retangle is the research area.

2.2. GMPE (ground motion prediction equation)

GMPE is used to estimate the level of ground shaking (PGA) due to an earthquake based on the
magnitude, distance from the source to the observation location, the condition of a particular
earthquake source and the influence of local geology. In the absence of a attenuation function (GMPE)
in the territory of Indonesia, it is necessary to utilize the attenuation function for other areas that are
considered close to or match the geological characteristics of Indonesia. In this study, the attenuation
equation used for the background source is shown in table 2 below:

Table 2. GMPE was used in PSHA

Source Model GMPE
Shallow 1. Boore–Atkinson NGA (Boore and Atkinson 2008) [14]
background 2. Campbell–Bozorgnia NGA (Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008)[15]
3. Chiou–Youngs NGA (Chiou and Youngs 2008[16]
1. Geomatrix subduction (Youngs et al. 1997)[17]
Deep background 2. Atkinson-Boore BC rock & global source (Atkinson and Boore 2007)[18]
3. Atkinson–Boore intraslab (Atkinson and Boore 2003)[19]

2.3. Logic Tree

Logic tree is a model used in the PSHA which aims to take into calculate the uncertainty of both when
an earthquake occurs, where the earthquake will occur, the size of the earthquake magnitude, and the
character of the earthquake [20]. The results of analysis are given by the relative probability weights
of the branch combinations, with the final result taken as the sum of the weighted values of 1. The
weighting of the logic tree in this study is shown in table 3 below.

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

Table 3. Logic Tree for Background Source Model

Background Fault GMPE Uncertainties
Source Model Mechanisme
Uncertainties
Shallow Strike slip (0.5) Boore–Atkinson NGA 2008 (0.33)
Background Reverse (0.25) Campbell–Bozorgnia NGA 2008 (0.33)
Normal (0.25 Chiou–Youngs NGA 2008 (0.33)

Deep Strike slip (0.5) Geomatrix subduction (Youngs et al. 1997) (0.33)
Background Reverse (0.25) Atkinson and Boore 2007 (0.33)
Normal (0.25 Atkinson–Boore intraslab (0.33)

2.4. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)

Probabilistic analysis deals with the estimated rate of ground motion over a certain period of time.
Probabilistic assessment takes the uncertainty factor in the earthquake source, path, site conditions and
return period of the earthquake. In general, the mathematical equations are written following the
Cornel equation [21] as follows:

P[I ≥ i] = ʃ ʃ P[I ≥ i|m dan r] 𝐹𝑀 (m) FR (r).dm dr (1)

FM = magnitude probability density function

FR = hipocenter probability density function
P[I ≥ i|m, r] = random probability condition intensity (I) which exceed the value of (I) due to the
magnitude (M) and the distance of the hypocenter (R)

In this study, PSHA calculations was conducted using software from USGS [22]. The analysis
includes a probability of exceedence 10% in 50 years in bedrock with a return period of 500 years.

3. Results And Discussion

The seismcity rates in each grid was modeled for gridded seismicity by integrated the combined
BMKG and ISC earthquake catalogs in the 4.5 ≥Mw≤7.9 range at depth variation. Furthermore, the
application of the seismicity smoothing algorithm is based on Frankel's study [9] by applying
smoothing with a correlation distance of 50 km. The area for determining the b-value is based on
earthquake catalogs (Mc ~ 4.6 of the years 1907 to 2020) is 0.95.

The large value of seismcity rate means that the region has a relatively high frequency of earthquake
occurrences [13]. Where areas with relatively high frequency values tend to produce relatively small
to moderate earthquake magnitudes. In Figure 2 it can be seen that the location of the city of Manado
is marked by a black rectangle which has an earthquake production of about 0.02. The value of this
seismcity rate is obtained from the declustering catalog so that the results obtained are the mainshocks.

Furthermore, we integrate seismicity smoothing data to distribution of seismicity rate in each grid to
PSHA input. This model reveals that the contribution of the source background to soil shaking in
Manado City in the bedrock for probability of passing 10% in 50 years is 0.18 ≥ g ≤0.19 (figure 3).
The largest PGA value is located in the center of Manado City, which is 0.19 g. Based on the
earthquake vulnerability index released by BNPB [23] explained that the contribution of PGA with a
value of <0.2501 g is classified as a low index. This shows that the contribution of background sources
to the seismic hazard in Mando City is relatively low.

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

Figure 2. Plot Smoothed rate distribution with a correlation distance of 50 km. The black rectangle is
represented the Manado city.

Figure 3. PSHA map of Manado City from background sources for probability of passing 10% in 50
years in bedrock T = 0 second.

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

Based on earthquake occured in March 2021 Mw 4.3 hypocenter in land at a depth of 10 km was felt
III-IV MMI in Manado City. The source of this earthquake was unidentified. Therefore, we mentioned
as a background source due to it unclear seismogenic. This event showed that the contribution of the
earthquake from the background source affects the ground shaking in the Manado city. Considering
that the Manado city as Capital of North Sulawesi Capital that has relatively increased growth
population accompanied by significant infrastructure development [1]. it can be seen in the Indonesian
government's policy of building highway infrastructure from Manado to Bitung and from Manado to
Likupang, and also the construction of several infrastructure like bridges and tourism facilities.

Figure 4. Plot of probability of excedence curve against PGA

Figure 4 is plot of the PSHA hazard curve between PGA and POE (probability of exceedance) in
manado City. It can be noted that PGA and POE is inversely. When the probability of exceedance
(POE) is increased so the PGA value is decreased. it can be explains that when the POE value is large,
the return period of the earthquake becomes shorter, therefore it is less likely that a large earthquake
will occur compared to an earthquake with a longer (longer) return period.

4. Conclusion and Recomendation

Based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model, the background source contribution
to the peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Manado City in the bedrock is 0.18 g ≤ 0.19 for a probability
of exceedence 10% in 50 years. Considering the current city of Manado with massive infrastructure
development and a dense population, it is necessary to analyze the deterministic model as a
comparison with the results of the PSHA background model.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like to thank the Postgraduate Program in Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Science and
Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, for supporting the publication of this paper. The
authors also thank the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) for funding
the publication of this paper. Special thanks are intended to Dr. Afnimar for the valuable suggestions
and comments..

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9th Asian Physics Symposium 2021 (APS 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2243 (2022) 012007 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2243/1/012007

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